I’m stealing that line from old friend of the blog Chris Pendley, and it’s true. If the Vols shot 4-of-26 from three in just about any other game and still almost win, you shrug your shoulders and move on to the next one. If the Vols continue to take 26 threes per game or make only four of them, then you panic. It’s early, but right now the Vols sit 282nd in KenPom’s luck ratings.
Tennessee is 2-2 in marquee non-conference affairs. The two that remain before the calendar turns to 2020 were originally thought to be the biggest tests. But while the Vols are on pace for about what we thought they’d be – still projecting at 21 regular season wins in KenPom, a six seed in the Bracket Matrix, 21st in the AP poll and 25th in NET – Cincinnati and Wisconsin have taken a turn for the worst.
The Rick Barnes What-If Bowl
With Barnes in Knoxville, Mick Cronin left Cincinnati after 13 years and took the UCLA job.
(Quick sidenote: I still do a lot of reading from SB Nation blogs, especially when we’re playing teams outside the SEC. If you’ve followed us throughout the years at Rocky Top Talk, here, or enjoy the good work done by fans of other teams writing in a freelance capacity, you might be interested to learn more about what’s happening to those who write for California-based teams. Bruins Nation was one of the first SB Nation sites I interacted with after starting at Rocky Top Talk when Kiffin was hired, and always found good writing and analysis there whenever I was curious about something happening at UCLA. All the best to their team.)
Steve Alford’s last two years at Westwood saw a loss in Dayton and a 17-16 finish. Mick Cronin is 7-4 in the early stages there. Meanwhile, John Brannen is in his first year at Cincinnati after four years and two NCAA Tournament appearances at Northern Kentucky.
We almost ran into these guys in each of the last two seasons. Last year the Bearcats lost to Iowa in the first round before we beat the Hawkeyes in the second. And two years ago Cincinnati was the two seed in our region, falling to Nevada in round two the same day we lost to Loyola Chicago.
They brought back their top three scorers, but have stumbled out of the gates. Some of it is strength of schedule: losses on the road to usually-good Xavier and an unusually-good Ohio State team, currently number one in KenPom. Cincinnati also did something I’m not sure I’ve seen before: three straight overtime games, including a loss to Bowling Green and wins over Valparaiso and UNLV. Their last game was particularly costly: Colgate – who is feisty, as we’ll attest to – won at Cincinnati as a result of this endgame sequence:
Disaster of a finish for Cincinnati, which will host Tennessee on Wednesday. The Bearcats lost to Colgate by 1. pic.twitter.com/1KQkBJFZns
The thought coming into the year was these six teams – Washington, Florida State, VCU/Purdue, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin – were all on Tennessee’s level, all somewhere between a 4-8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. In the Bracket Matrix this week, it mostly holds up: the Vols at six, Washington at eight, Florida State at four, VCU down a bit at 10, Memphis at five. But Cincinnati appears in just one entry in the matrix, and Wisconsin – 5-5 and headed to Knoxville on December 28 – is in just three (of 27).
First-Year Problems (and Solutions?)
The Bearcats returned leading scorer Jarron Cumberland (18.8 per game last year), added his cousin Jaevin as a grad transfer from Oakland, and brought back guard Keith Williams and 6’8″ forward Tre Scott, all upperclassmen. But this team has problems that look like what a first-year coach might expect: after leading the nation in fewest steals allowed in 2019, Cincinnati is 281st in turnover percentage this season and 323rd in non-steal turnovers.
There’s also the emergence of 7’1″ Chris Vogt who transferred in with Brannen from Northern Kentucky. After playing less than 20 minutes in the first two games, he’s emerged as a primary option: double figure scoring in every game after the opener at Ohio State, 16 points in 26 minutes against Colgate, 24th nationally in effective field goal percentage. Foul trouble can be an issue with him, but we’ll yet again get to see the Vols at a size disadvantage.
Like the Memphis game, there’s a part of me that wants to type, “This should be a game Tennessee’s veterans win.” Tennessee’s defense – now 11th nationally in KenPom and fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed – can take advantage of a turnover-prone team still learning a new system. Having played Ohio State, the Bearcats won’t be intimidated by the #21 Vols. But Tennessee’s best basketball this season won’t be about intimidation. If the mantra after Florida State was straightforward, not spectacular, I think it’s still true after Memphis…I’d just add, “And don’t miss 22 threes.”
We’ll see what we learned at 7:00 PM ET tonight on ESPN2, or if any learning was necessary if the Vols can knock down open threes.
The biggest thing I thought Memphis could do to hurt Tennessee was get the Vols in foul trouble, which they absolutely did in the first half. Fortunately, Tennessee got big minutes from Drew Pember and a hot start from Josiah James. Memphis turned it over 11 times in the first 20 minutes, handing Tennessee a 17-5 lead. But the Vols couldn’t run away with it, and a late barrage gave Memphis a one-point halftime lead.
Foul trouble was a non-issue in the second half. In a low-scoring affair, the Vols got some nice buckets from Yves Pons and John Fulkerson; Fulkerson played one of the best games of his career on the defensive end. Both Pons and Fulkerson missed crucial free throws, but the Vols went 13-of-18 (72.2%) from the stripe on the day.
It didn’t look like it was a big part of the Memphis gameplan coming in, but as the day went along a common theme emerged for Tennessee: open looks from three that didn’t go down.
James hit three in the first half. He finished 3-of-6 with a big miss late. Jordan Bowden hit a really tough three in the second half. It was Tennessee’s only other make of the day. The Vols were shooting 33% from the arc coming in. They went 4-of-26 (15.4%). Non-James players went 1-of-20.
Memphis came in shooting 30% from the arc. They didn’t take many, as you’d expect. But they hit some big ones in the second half. Memphis had a four-point lead for 90 seconds with 12 minutes to play. The next time the game was at two possessions was Alex Lomax’s free throws with eight seconds left. In a game like that, threes are daggers. The Tigers took the lead on their final made three with 1:48 to play. The Vols had a deep miss from Lamonte Turner, the aforementioned miss from Josiah James, and Yves Pons missing the front end of a 1-and-1 on the offensive rebound.
This was Tennessee’s worst three-point shooting day since the season opener against Chattanooga in 2016-17 (1-for-16) and two games against Frank Martin’s eventual Final Four squad the same year.
You can take all the emotion from this rivalry – all the ways you want to win anyway, all the amplification from the Penny Hardaway stuff (who was gracious in victory), the nation’s longest home winning streak, all of that – but Tennessee simply cannot survive 4-of-26 from the arc. Most of them were good looks. Almost all of them didn’t go down.
At some point, maybe we’ll look at that and say it’s a good thing since the Vols almost won anyway. Today is not that day. There will be an ongoing conversation about Lamonte Turner’s shoulders (1-for-11 today), but I’m sure everything that can be done about that is already being done.
The result we got today makes sense given how we got there. But how we got there was unexpected, fairly unprecedented, and absolutely no fun.
The Vols will have to rebound quickly, heading to Cincinnati on Wednesday night. The rubber match with Memphis is next season in Nashville.
Thompson-Boling Arena’s official capacity is 21,678. The last two years, the Vols listed an official attendance above capacity five times:
Season
Opponent
Attendance
2019
Florida
22,261
2018
Georgia
22,237
2019
West Virginia
22,149
2019
Alabama
21,957
2019
Kentucky
21,729
How often do the Vols play a ranked non-conference opponent at home? Since Bruce Pearl’s arrival in 2005-06:
Season
Opponent
2018
#7 North Carolina
2015
#15 Butler
2013
#23 Wichita State
2012
#17 Pittsburgh
2012
#13 UConn
2011
#21 Memphis
2010
#1 Kansas
2009
#22 Memphis
2007
#16 Memphis
Put all those ingredients plus everything about the Tennessee-Memphis rivalry in a bowl; it’ll do a good enough job of mixing itself up. Tomorrow is the first of what should become five Saturday sellouts for the Vols (Wisconsin, LSU, Kentucky, Florida, Auburn). But it might end up being the loudest one of all.
Give me all the freshmen you have.
Even with James Wiseman still ineligible and Lester Quinones out with a broken hand, the number of freshmen Memphis will put on the floor is unusual. Start with 6’9″ Precious Achiuwa, who has seen his minutes and production increase to become the team’s number one option. He had 25 in their 87-86 win over Ole Miss on November 23, and he will get to the free throw line: 10 attempts vs the Rebels, 20 against Alcorn State. He’s only shooting 53.3% once he gets there, but for a Tennessee team playing a short bench, his ability to get to the line is of significance. As a team, Memphis is sixth nationally in free throw rate.
This team wants to run: Memphis is 10th nationally in tempo (stats via KenPom), and guards Damion Baugh (freshman) and Alex Lomax (sophomore) both hover around the Top 100 in assist rate.
And, much like the Washington, Florida State, and VCU teams the Vols saw already, Memphis relies on a lot of shot-blocking. The Tigers are statistically the best at it of that group, currently third nationally. But the other three are all in the Top 15. With Memphis, without Wiseman it’s less pure size and more about athleticism: Achiuwa and 6’7″ freshman D.J. Jeffries are both in the Top 150 in shot blocking percentage.
The good news here: despite having played three excellent shot-blocking teams thus far, the Vols are still 63rd nationally in fewest shots blocked by percentage. Some of it is the fearlessness of a guy like Yves Pons, sure. But credit John Fulkerson for being such a high-percentage player against great shot-blocking teams: Fulky is 56th nationally from inside the arc (69.2%), which also makes him 22nd nationally in effective field goal percentage at that number since he doesn’t take any threes. The Vols have done a good job both getting him high-percentage looks, and encouraging him to shoot more.
The most straightforward way to talk about Tennessee is to look at Lamonte Turner – eight turnovers in our only loss – and put a lot of where we go on how he’s playing. But how he’s playing, outside of that game, is truly excellent as a point guard: fifth nationally in assist rate, including a pair of 12+ assist games against not-bad teams from Murray State and Chattanooga. There’s nothing about this or, apparently, any moment that’s going to scare him. But Tennessee needs him to choose the straightforward over the spectacular, which is where he got in trouble against the Seminoles. If he does that, the Vols have already gotten the best of a lot of what Memphis likes to do when it was wearing other uniforms.
Maybe the best news of all for Tennessee: last year’s team was led by its offense because you could generally rely on what you were going to get from Williams, Schofield, and Bone. But this year’s team has switched to being led by its defense, which is a more reliable option night in and night out. It traveled to Toronto and Destin. It helped Tennessee survive an early barrage of threes from Murray State. And – if it can stay out of foul trouble, as it usually does – it should handle all the emotion in the building on Saturday.
We’re too early in the year to think big picture, but the ultimate magic numbers in KenPom are always having both a Top 20 offense and defense. The 2018 Vols had the defense. The 2019 Vols had the nation’s third-best offense, but I would say lost a tiny bit of urgency defensively. So far this year, the Vols are 32nd in offense but 14th in defense. It’s the best model to survive and advance for this year’s squad, especially as Olivier Nkamhoua and Josiah Jones James mature.
What could be an all-timer Thompson-Boling crowd will do everything it can to take Memphis, its freshmen, and its coach out of their element. If Tennessee plays within theirs, the Vols should win.
3:00 PM Saturday with Dickie V on the mothership, baby.
For an argument built around which program needs to play the other more, it sure would be a shame to see the series slip away when both teams have so much going for them.
The Vols and Tigers first met in Oklahoma City in December 1969. It was another two decades before the next meeting, and at that point Memphis was rolling: seven straight NCAA Tournament appearances from 1982-89, including a Final Four in 1985. The Vols went dancing seven of eight years from 1976-83, but Don DeVoe’s squads struck out the next five seasons until one final appearance in his tenure in 1989, the same season Tennessee and Memphis began an annual series.
Tennessee won the first one that year 76-74, and the teams traded blows over the next four games, including a Vol win in the 1990 postseason NIT. Memphis won 74-72 in Knoxville in November 1990.
And then Penny Hardaway got two shots at the Vols. Tennessee won 65-64 in Memphis in December 1991. Back in Knoxville the following season with the Tigers ranked #8:
The rivalry survived Allan Houston vs. Penny Hardaway: Memphis won the next three, then the Vols won five in a row. The Tigers claimed a two point win in December 2001.
And then the series took a break after playing every year from 1988-89 to 2001-02.
Penny’s 1991-92 squad made the Elite Eight. The Tigers were back in the Sweet 16 in 1995, then bounced in the first round in 1996. And then Memphis missed the NCAA Tournament four years in a row. Calipari, he of a vacated Final Four at UMass in 1996 and 2.25 years with the New Jersey Nets, became the new head coach at Memphis for the 2000-01 season. And the rivalry was almost immediately discontinued.
While Memphis was missing the NCAA Tournament four years in a row in the late 90’s, Tennessee ascended under Jerry Green. But much of the work was being done by Kevin O’Neill’s recruits, including highly coveted point guard Tony Harris from Memphis.
Meanwhile, the rise of Tennessee football to its most dominant era in program history happened to coincide with the basketball series being played annually. The Vols and Tigers met six times in the 1980’s in football: three in Knoxville, three in Memphis. That format continued into the 90’s, with the Vols winning in 1991, 1992, and 1994 before Memphis infamously beat the Vols in 1996 (a game we talked a lot about when Tennessee lost to Georgia State). It remains the only win Memphis has ever recorded over Tennessee in football.
The series took three years off, then resumed in what looks like a two-for-one fashion: games in Knoxville in 1999 and 2001, with a return to Memphis in 2000. By that point the Vols were regularly competing for the national title, and Memphis was still mired in misery: between 1972 and 2002, the Tigers never made a bowl game.
At the turn of the century, there was little reason for Tennessee to play a 50-50 home-and-home series with Memphis in football; the Vols’ national profile made it easy to recruit in West Tennessee even without being there every few years. Meanwhile in basketball, Tennessee made the NCAA Tournament four years in a row from 1998-2001 with Tony Harris at point guard, while Memphis was absent from 1997-2002.
With Calipari eager to rebuild the Tigers and keep Tennessee out of Memphis, and Tennessee football finding little motivation to play the Tigers six times in ten years, both series took a break: three years in basketball, four years in football. In that time, Buzz Peterson’s era found the Vols on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament, Tennessee football’s ceiling was lowered a bit, and Calipari got the Tigers going again: an NIT title in 2002, back in the NCAA Tournament the next two years, and the NIT semifinals in 2005.
A deal was struck to put the basketball rivalry back on an annual basis, with home-and-home football games in 2005-06 and 2009-10. Tennessee hired Bruce Pearl. And oh boy.
As Good As It Gets?
Calipari’s distaste for this annual rivalry wasn’t built on Memphis already arriving on the national scene: when the Vols and Tigers resumed on the hardwood in January 2006, Memphis still hadn’t made the Sweet 16 since 1995. But that changed immediately: Calipari’s Tigers made two Elite Eight’s, the title game, and the Sweet 16 in the next four seasons.
Meanwhile, Pearl resurrected Tennessee’s program immediately. Those first three games are memorable to this day: Pearl raising Dane Bradshaw’s hand at the scorer’s table in 2006, Chris Lofton turning in the single best performance I’ve ever seen from a Tennessee player in 2007:
…and, of course, 1 vs 2 in 2008:
Calipari’s Tigers won by two the following year in Knoxville, then he walked through that door to Lexington, Kentucky. At both Memphis and Kentucky, Calipari has been a vocal champion of playing anyone, anytime, anywhere…except, apparently, the Vols while at Memphis.
Interestingly, Calipari built a national power those last four years at Memphis with guys like Robert Dozier (Georgia), Chris Douglas-Roberts (Detroit), Joey Dorsey (Baltimore), Shawn Taggart (Richmond), Derrick Rose (Chicago), and Tyreke Evans (Pennsylvania). While the Tigers did have high-value recruits like Willie Kemp from Bolivar on their roster, most of their success came from recruiting on the national stage.
Meanwhile, Tennessee rose to power under Bruce Pearl during the same span with Memphis-area products Dane Bradshaw, Wayne Chism, and J.P. Prince.
The Fadeaway
The Vols beat Memphis by 20 in Pearl’s final season, then lost three straight before the contract was up, including a memorable double overtime affair in Maui in Cuonzo Martin’s first season. In seven seasons Josh Pastner made the NCAA Tournament four times, but never got out of the first weekend. The Vols made the Sweet 16 from Dayton in Cuonzo Martin’s final season, their only appearance in the tournament’s second weekend between the Elite Eight to open the decade and last season.
In football, Lane Kiffin’s Vols doubled-up Memphis 56-28 in 2009, then Tyler Bray got his first career start and win at Memphis in 2010, the beginning of a four-game winning streak to get the Vols bowl eligible.
Tommy West got the Tigers bowl eligible five out of six years from 2003-08, including a 9-4 season in 2003, but flamed out at 2-10 in 2009.
The decade since the last football meeting between the two schools has seen a shocking reversal of fortune. Justin Fuente’s arrival on the banks of the Mississippi in 2012 saw the Tigers go 4-8 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, then rocket to a 10-3 finish in 2014 and a #25 final ranking. The Tigers went 9-4 the following season, Fuente went to Virginia Tech, and Mike Norvell picked up right where he left off: 8-5, 10-3 with a ranked finish, 8-6, and now 12-1 this season with the coveted New Year’s Six appearance in the Cotton Bowl.
Here’s a list of the other bowl games in the history of Memphis football: Burley, Pasadena (not Rose), New Orleans, GMAC, Motor City, New Orleans, St. Petersburg, Miami Beach, Birmingham, Boca Raton, Liberty, Birmingham.
While the Tigers rose, Tennessee wandered through the wilderness. Since 2014, Memphis is 57-22; the Vols are 41-34.
Meanwhile in basketball, Pastner’s move to Georgia Tech brought two tumultuous years of Tubby Smith and no NCAA or NIT appearances. Tennessee watched Cuonzo Martin leave for California, then hired Donnie Tyndall before firing him with cause after one season, then went 15-19 and 16-16 in Rick Barnes’ first two seasons.
The Return
And then Memphis hired Penny Hardaway, and what we hoped we were getting from Rick Barnes arrived in full.
The Vols went 26-9 and won the SEC in 2018, then 31-6 including a month at #1 last season. Memphis went 22-14 and made the NIT last season, then Hardaway signed the nation’s number one recruiting class, including two four-stars and a five-star from Memphis. Two of those players, including James Wiseman, played for Hardaway at Memphis East.
So when this series was renewed last season as a three-year deal – Memphis, Knoxville, and next year in Nashville for the first time – it was unique in a couple of ways. One, there’s no football in the contract. Memphis has a home-and-home with Mississippi State and a two-for-one with Arkansas in the coming decade, but no Vols on the horizon.
But two, when the series renewed last December, balled fists or no…both the Tennessee and Memphis programs were on better footing than in 1989 or, as far as we knew at the time, 2006.
Pearl and Calipari were both on their way to great things in that initial meeting now 14 years ago. But we couldn’t be sure of either at the time. This time, the Vols have been one of the best teams in college basketball over the last two seasons and show no signs of leaving the Top 25, and Memphis has the nation’s best recruiting class.
I don’t know what Penny’s ambitions are – stay at Memphis forever, get to the NBA, or somewhere between – but it’s clear he can recruit at the level it takes to get Memphis where it needs to go. And it’s clear Rick Barnes can do the same at Tennessee, currently holding the nation’s #4 recruiting class for 2020 with one mid-state Tennessean and two others from Florida and Virginia. Jaden Springer chose the Vols over the Tigers.
“I think it’s been good for everybody…I think it will be good next year for us in Nashville. As your schedule opportunities come up, you’ve got to look at it and evaluate it.”
“You’re trying to get me to talk about things,” Barnes said. “Really, I don’t think about that. I told you, we’re going to build a schedule based on where and what we think is best. That’s all I can answer.”
And that’s the rub: where and what we think is best.
When Calipari took the Memphis job, playing Tennessee wasn’t best for business. Not because of what Memphis was at the time, or what Tennessee was, but because of who he was trying to get Memphis to be. When the series did resume in 2006, playing Tennessee wasn’t best for business because the Vols had struggled under Buzz Peterson and Memphis was looking to level up.
This notion that Tennessee has more to gain from playing Memphis than the other way around has always been at the heart of the matter for me, especially as Tennessee’s national profile rose under Pearl. The Tigers have spent the last 25 years in Conference USA and the American. In no individual season did it ever hurt their strength of schedule to play the Vols; far more often than not, it helped. Memphis got where they were going under Calipari by recruiting nationally, the Vols in part under Pearl by recruiting well in-state. Once Calipari left, the question could’ve been easily asked in reverse.
But now, having spent most of this decade apart, both Tennessee and Memphis are on excellent footing relative to both their expectations and recent history. For maybe the first time, we don’t have to have this argument about who benefits more.
It would be quite an opportunity missed, then, if both schools decide not to run it back after next season.
Our 2019-20 Bowl Pick ‘Em is now open at Fun Office Pools. If you played with us last year, or in this year’s regular season picks contest, you should’ve received an email this morning with an invitation to join, or you can sign up directly at Fun Office Pools. As always, it’s free to play.
And as always, we use confidence points: make your picks straight up in each of the 40 bowl games, including the playoffs, then assign a point value to each contest: 40 points for the outcome you’re most confident in, one point for the outcome you’re least confident in, etc.
The bowl fun starts December 20, but the pool is open now. Our old friends at Banner Society rank the Gator Bowl seventh in their watchability ratings in today’s Read Option newsletter.
(furiously deletes 700 words on the Music City Bowl)
Actually, let me say this: Nashville’s bowl runs a good show. I went in 2010 and really enjoyed it (until the end, of course). I think it’s good for the state to have the Music City Bowl do well. And there are seasons in rebuild mode when it really isn’t a bad destination for the Vols, like 2010.
That just wasn’t the case when the Gator Bowl was a realistic possibility, which it has been since Tennessee beat South Carolina, or a rightful one, which it has been since Tennessee finished a 6-1 run to end the regular season.
And now, after much deliberation and plenty of false starts:
Here’s what I wrote when it looked like Nashville:
The Music City Bowl is not as prestigious as the Gator Bowl, full stop. It may be more desirable to individual fans depending on where you live, it may pay a little more, and it may create a nice recruiting setup in the mid-state. And a bowl can change its own fate – see the Peach Bowl, once a sign of a disappointing season at UT, now a New Year’s Six bowl – and perhaps Nashville will earn that reputation. None of that changes the prestige of January vs December 30, or the fact that Nashville’s bowl is 21 years old and Jacksonville’s has been played since the end of World War II.
It looked like the Vols were just going to be on the wrong side of bad luck. There’s no argument for Kentucky as a more deserving or desirable option than Tennessee in a vacuum. But in 2019, circumstances appeared to be working for the Cats and against the Vols. The Gator Bowl took an ACC team three years in a row and was contractually obligated, whatever that’s worth, to take a Big Ten team. Because of the final College Football Playoff rankings, Indiana was the best available option. In any other year of the last six, Indiana and Kentucky play in Nashville. But with the Music City obligated to an ACC team on the other half of their deal with Jacksonville, and Louisville being a good fit there…we didn’t have to like Nashville, but it at least made sense.
The Vols also just missed the Outback Bowl by 10-3 Wisconsin staying at #8 in the final College Football Playoff poll and Penn State staying ahead of an Auburn team that beat Oregon and Alabama. If the New Year’s Six used the AP poll instead, #9 Auburn would be in the Cotton Bowl, Alabama in the Citrus Bowl, and the Vols in the Outback Bowl. Instead, we have three Big Ten teams in the New Year’s Six and the SEC’s teams going down a peg.
But the Vols didn’t fall any further than that, earning the January bid to Jacksonville at the 11th hour and 58th minute. And here’s something we can say with greater certainty now: even if the Vols beat Georgia State and BYU to open the year, they’re probably still playing Indiana in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee would be ranked, but still in the Group of Six and still less deserving than Auburn. You’d always prefer to be 9-3 than 7-5, but perhaps the Vols learned a few things along the way this season that will prove to be more valuable than a pair of early escapes would’ve revealed.
Also: now we’re in-between two scenarios. The Outback Bowl was desirable not just for its own prestige, but a shot at a ranked opponent like Minnesota. Tennessee is hot, and did beat three bowl-bound teams plus 6-6 Missouri in this run. But the Vols only faced three ranked teams this season. Via the media guide, that hasn’t happened to Tennessee since 2003 (#17 Florida, #8 Georgia, #6 Miami). Tennessee would’ve been an underdog to the Golden Gophers by around eight points in SP+. It’s a bigger ask on a question this team hasn’t answered yet.
On the other hand, play Louisville in the Music City, and you’re likely a big favorite (around -10 in SP+). Given what our friends from Kentucky just did to them, you have little to gain here.
Instead, it’s Indiana. The name doesn’t do much traditionally in football, but the 8-4 Hoosiers would be a four-point favorite in SP+. It’s an also receiving votes bowl in the Coaches’ Poll; a great performance from either team could earn them a ranked finish.
It’s not a huge opportunity to level up like the Outback Bowl. But Indiana would likely be Tennessee’s best win this season. It’s the right bowl, and the right opportunity.
And it’s January, in primetime, the only game happening on the evening of January 2. This Tennessee team, led by its seniors, has given the program hope when it seemed furthest away. They can be forever tied to a turnaround if the Vols to follow in the 2020’s continue down this path. The Gator Bowl can be a bridge. I’m thrilled to see if they can cross it.
Let’s start with the simple: if Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson win, they’re in. For Tennessee’s purposes, it may not matter if the committee chooses Utah or Oklahoma if they both win. But because Baylor is ranked six spots ahead of Oregon, it’s better for the Vols if Oklahoma earns the #4 spot.
That scenario would give you the top three and the Sooners in the playoff. The Sugar Bowl would take Georgia (assuming the Dawgs don’t drop below a Florida team they beat) and Baylor.
The Rose Bowl would take Utah and either Wisconsin or Penn State. Assuming a team that does not play this week will not jump another team that does not play this week, Florida has the advantage for the Orange Bowl by being ranked ahead of Penn State, and would probably play Virginia (if there are zero non-Clemson, non-Notre Dame ACC teams ranked in the final playoff poll, the Orange Bowl gets to pick itself, but Virginia is the most deserving no matter what happens against the Tigers).
From there, the Cotton Bowl will take the next-highest-ranked team. And this is where everything will get decided as far as Tennessee and the Outback Bowl: is that next-highest-ranked team Wisconsin or Auburn? Or, if the committee takes Utah over Oklahoma, is it Wisconsin, Auburn, or Baylor?
If it’s the Tigers, the Tua-less Tide go to Orlando, and Tennessee’s path to the Outback Bowl is clear. If Wisconsin is ranked ahead of Auburn in the final poll (or Baylor if the committee puts Utah in the playoff), Alabama and Auburn should split the Citrus and Outback, sending the Vols back to the Jacksonville conversation.
Also, if it’s Wisconsin, the Big Ten bowl opponents cycle up, meaning you’re not going to catch anything better than Indiana or an ACC trade-off in the Gator Bowl. If you want to see the Vols level up, it looks like that can only happen in Tampa now.
So, in order of what would be most helpful for Tennessee:
Ohio State blows out #8 Wisconsin enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll
The committee takes Oklahoma for its final playoff spot
Or, the committee takes Utah, and Oklahoma blows out #7 Baylor enough for them to fall behind #11 Auburn in the final poll (an odd scenario probably requiring Utah to simultaneously blow out Oregon)
At the start of fall camp, our GRT Expected Win Total Machine came back at an average of 6.9 wins. We ran it again the week leading up to Georgia State, and August optimism drove it north to 7.2.
And then it hung out in the twos and threes for a while.
But here, at the end, Tennessee may have gotten the most bang for their 7-5 buck: a 6-1 run, the only loss a could’ve-been at Bama, and lessons one might not have learned along any other way. Not all 7-5’s are created equal; if you’re looking for the one that helps Tennessee most in 2020, this might be it.
But first, the final piece of 2019’s puzzle. And there’s a chance it too could be the one that helps the Vols most next season: January 1 in Florida should mean a shot at the most meaningful victory of the year.
The Straightforward Path & Four SEC Teams in the CFP/NY6
No drama, all chalk this week could lead us to something like this:
College Football Playoff: Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma/Utah
Automatic bids leave few questions here. After the four playoff teams, only two at-large selections are available: the highest-ranked SEC/Big Ten team to go opposite an ACC school in Miami, and the highest-ranked remaining team to face the best Group of Five team in JerryWorld. If Penn State is ranked higher than Wisconsin in the final College Football Playoff poll, the Nittany Lions will go to the Rose Bowl and clear the path for both Florida and Alabama to play in the New Year’s Six.
If this happens, Auburn will go to the Citrus Bowl. From there, the SEC’s Group of Six will choose between Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Mississippi State.
Last week, the assumption was the Outback Bowl would take 7-5 Texas A&M with losses to Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, and LSU. But the Aggies were non-competitive in a 50-7 loss, and have become popular in projections to stay home and play in the Texas Bowl. Remember: A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year. That performance against LSU makes them even less likely to return there in my opinion.
If, in fact, Tennessee is now more desirable than Texas A&M, the Aggies could go to Houston and clear a path to Tennessee in Tampa. The only way I can see the Vols in the Outback Bowl is if four SEC teams are in the CFP/NY6. Getting four there means the Big Ten gets just two, which we’ll assume to be Ohio State and Penn State. That scenario should then send Wisconsin to the Citrus Bowl, where they haven’t been since 2014. And that would make Minnesota the most likely opponent in the Outback Bowl: the Gophers have never played in Tampa, and simplifies what comes next with Iowa and Michigan available for the Holiday and Gator Bowls. Tennessee vs Minnesota (currently #15 in the AP poll) in the Outback Bowl is now the projection from both ESPN analysts.
What to watch here on Tuesday: how close are Penn State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota in the College Football Playoff poll? Does the committee reward Minnesota’s head-to-head win over Penn State the way the AP poll did not (PSU 12, Minnesota 15)? Is Wisconsin so far up the ladder that a competitive game with Ohio State could keep them in the New Year’s Six mix?
What if only three SEC teams make the CFP/NY6?
Let’s say the playoff committee really takes it out on Alabama and drops the Tide way down the list and out of New Year’s Six contention. If a Big Ten team earns an at-large bid to the Orange or Cotton, the quality of opponent other SEC teams would face will drop, and we’re all going back one in the pecking order without a fourth SEC team in the CFP/NY6.
In this scenario, let’s say Wisconsin plays a close game with Ohio State and stays ahead of Alabama in the final poll. The Badgers go to the Cotton Bowl, knocking the Tide back to the Citrus Bowl. That knocks Auburn to the Outback Bowl, and would in all likelihood send the Vols to Jacksonville. The Big Ten pecking order then goes like this: Minnesota to the Citrus Bowl, then a real conundrum for the Outback Bowl. The last three years Tampa had Iowa, Michigan, and Iowa. The Big Ten has written rules to push for five different teams in their second-tier bowls in six years. But the drop-off from Michigan and Iowa to everyone else is steep. If they just kept it straightforward, you’d have Michigan in the Outback Bowl, Iowa in the Holiday Bowl and Indiana in the Gator Bowl. This is the scenario 247 takes for Tennessee: Vols vs Hoosiers in Jacksonville. Jason Kirk at Banner Society still has the Vols in Charlotte for reasons that are unclear to me, but does make the ACC/Big Ten swap we discussed last week to send Indiana to the Music City Bowl to face Kentucky (win-win). This week Jason sends Florida State instead of Virginia Tech to the Gator Bowl, where he has them playing Western Kentucky. I cannot fathom the SEC sending the Vols to Charlotte but leaving Jacksonville void.
So, to recap:
If the SEC gets four teams in the CFP/NY6, the Vols would be a favorite for the Outback Bowl in Tampa, with #15 Minnesota the most likely opponent. This scenario likely depends on Texas A&M going to the Texas Bowl.
If the SEC gets three teams in the CFP/NY6, the Vols would be a favorite for the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, with Indiana or an ACC #3 substitute like Florida State or Virginia Tech the most likely opponent.
On Tuesday, keep an eye on Penn State and Alabama in the College Football Playoff poll. I think you want Alabama still in range for the New Year’s Six, and Penn State in position to make the Rose Bowl over Minnesota and Wisconsin after they presumably lose to Ohio State.
The anniversary we remember this week is Schiano Sunday, two years since Tennessee’s football program started its roundabout path to what’s in front of us this weekend. But it’s also two years from a program-changing win for Tennessee Basketball, a story that began and at least closed a chapter with Purdue.
On Thanksgiving Weekend 2017, Tennessee went to the Bahamas and beat #18 Purdue 78-75 in overtime. In the moment, it felt like a great thing for Tennessee’s RPI on Selection Sunday, as the win earned the Vols a shot at Villanova the next day. As we know, the 2017-18 Vols would do far more than sneak into the tournament: the win over Purdue was the beginning of everything we enjoyed the last two seasons, a chapter that ended against those same Boilermakers in another overtime in the Sweet 16 last year.
New faces, so far same results: the Vols are 5-0 and ranked 17th. And this Thanksgiving, Tennessee has another shot to earn marquee wins. One game away is Purdue, again, in what could be an epic rubber match.
But first, Florida State.
The Seminoles are first in also receiving votes and 17th in KenPom. One good thing about the ol’ Emerald Coast Classic: the Vols will get a shot at an opponent of similar quality win or lose on Friday. VCU is undefeated and ranked 20th in the AP poll. Or we can get round three with Purdue, also receiving votes but 10th in KenPom.
The best reason to beat Florida State on Friday: playing at 7:00 PM on Saturday, instead of at 4:00 PM when the Vanderbilt game kicks off.
The Seminoles have been led by Leonard Hamilton since 2003…
He got the Seminoles to the NCAA Tournament four years in a row from 2009-12, and is back on a three-year run and counting including the Elite Eight in 2018 and the Sweet 16 last year.
Two vets lead the way from those teams: senior guard Trent Forest averages 12.2 points and 4.7 assists per game, and is the primary ball-handler. Junior M.J. Walker missed the last three games with a knee injury, but is expected to play Friday. Sophomore Devin Vassell goes 6’7″ and leads the team in scoring, just ahead of Forest at 12.3 per game.
The Seminoles will be just the latest opponent to put a stud freshman on the floor against Tennessee: 6’6″ Patrick Williams was the 26th-rated player in the class of 2019 at 247 Sports (Josiah James was 22nd). He’s getting a lot more time with the ball in his hands than Josiah, scoring 10.8 points per game, blocking shots, and is yet to miss a free throw at 17-of-17.
Florida State lost at Pittsburgh by two in the opener, but then went to Gainesville and dominated Florida 63-51. They held the Gators to 14-of-50 (28%) from the field; Kerry Blackshear got to the line 14 times but didn’t hit a shot. As such, Florida State is currently seventh in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings.
On paper, this plays out like the Washington match-up: the Seminoles do it with defensive and shot-blocking, and can put a pair of seven-footers on the floor with Balsa Koprivica and Dominik Olejniczak. The Vols will be undersized and tested if they go to the rim.
Florida State is also an excellent free-throw shooting team, currently hitting 81.7% as a team. The good news here: Tennessee is one of the best in the nation at defending without fouling. The Vols are ninth nationally in defensive free throw percentage, and eighth in shot blocking percentage. So far, teams that test Tennessee at the rim have failed thanks to Pons, Fulkerson, and Nkamhoua.
Like the foul-line jumper against Washington, the names can change but the style remains for the Vols: Tennessee is second nationally in assist rate, and Lamonte Turner has handled the transition to pure point guard with excellence:
Lamonte Turner is the first @Vol_Hoops player to record 12 or more assists in two games during the same season since LaMarcus Golden (1993-94).
Turner's 17-point, 12-assist outing against Chattanooga is the 24th points and assists double-double in program history. pic.twitter.com/rdw0irrxEK
Take nothing away from LaMarcus Golden, who did that on a 5-22 team. But Turner hit that mark in five games. His shot still hasn’t come up to speed (7-of-28 from three), but he’s facilitating Tennessee’s offense like a pro.
One of these games, we’ll probably see a defense good enough to take Tennessee out of its element; we’ll see if Florida State’s guards are good enough to do that to Turner. When that happens, I’ll be curious to see where Tennessee’s offense goes for answers and how many players can create their own shot outside Bowden and Turner. But so far, the Vols are solid on both ends of the floor.
Tennessee had six top-tier non-conference games on its schedule in November and December: Washington, Florida State, Purdue/VCU, Memphis, at Cincinnati, and Wisconsin. Coming into the year, a split of those six games would’ve felt like a tip of the cap. But not only did the Vols outpace expectations against Washington, Cincinnati and Wisconsin have really struggled out of the gate. The games this weekend, along with Memphis, look more and more like the best chances to earn meaningful non-conference wins before the Vols go to Kansas in January.
And for any complaints about not looking our best about Chattanooga – a rite of passage when you’ve had the kind of years we’ve enjoyed since that first Purdue game – a reminder:
Tennessee is bowl eligible for just the sixth time in the last 12 years, the first time since 2016, and the first time since 2015 when you’re actually looking forward to it. If the Vols beat Vanderbilt and win their bowl game, an 8-5 finish would be the third-best season for Tennessee in these last dozen years.
There’s a lot to celebrate, some of which includes not just postseason eligibility but the opportunity to play in January. Those two things seemed improbable and impossible after the Vols were blown out at Florida in a 1-3 start. But thanks to the good work of both Tennessee and the SEC’s upper tier, a January 1 date in Florida is the most likely scenario for the Vols if they handle Vanderbilt.
First, how Tennessee gets there. Then, who they might play.
SEC Bowl Tie-Ins: CFP, NY6 & Orlando
We start with the College Football Playoff. LSU is currently atop those rankings, with the regular season finale against Texas A&M and the SEC Championship left to go. Georgia was fourth last week and should stay there; the Dawgs get 3-8 Georgia Tech, then LSU.
If LSU beats Texas A&M, they should be in regardless of what happens in Atlanta. If Georgia beats Georgia Tech, the Dawgs should be in if they beat LSU. If LSU beats Georgia, Alabama could re-enter the fray if they beat Auburn on Saturday. The 11-1 Tua-less Tide would be in the conversation with Utah and the Oklahoma/Baylor rematch victor if they all win out.
Regardless, the SEC will almost certainly have one team in the College Football Playoff, and possibly two.
From there, the Sugar Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team in the CFP poll. This will almost certainly be Georgia or Alabama.
The Sugar Bowl will take from the SEC and Big 12, the Rose Bowl from the Big Ten and Pac-12. The Orange Bowl will take the next highest-ranked ACC team (which was none of them last week; the assumption is this will be the winner of Virginia/Virginia Tech after they then lose to Clemson).
The other team in the Orange Bowl is the next-highest-ranked at-large team from the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame. Because of that, it matters less if the league gets two teams in the playoff this year: either one of Georgia/Alabama makes the playoff and the other goes to the Sugar Bowl, or neither of them make the playoff but one goes to the Sugar and one could go to the Orange. You’d need the lesser of Georgia/Alabama to be ranked higher than the lesser of Penn State and the winner of this week’s Wisconsin/Minnesota game.
Finally, the Cotton Bowl will take the top Group of Five team and the highest-rated available at-large team. That could be the aforementioned lesser of Penn State/Wisconsin/Minnesota. But it could also be Florida, currently 11th in the CFP poll.
Translation: the SEC should have either three or four teams in the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six.
The Citrus Bowl is next, and gets first pick of all the remaining SEC teams. If Florida makes it four in the CFP/NY6, Auburn is the natural choice here. If the Gators are left out of the CFP/NY6, they’re likely to end up in Orlando.
SEC Bowl Tie-Ins: The Group of Six
That’s the Outback, Gator, Music City, Belk, Liberty, and Texas Bowls. And I list them this way because that’s typically been their order of prestige. The league office says, “In consultation with SEC member institutions, as well as these six bowls, the conference will make the assignments for the bowl games in the pool system.”
This has never meant that all six are created equal. The old pecking order puts the Outback at the top of the list, and that’s held form: a ranked SEC team has played in Tampa seven of the last eight years. If Florida is in the Citrus Bowl, Auburn should be the choice here; the Tigers haven’t been to the Outback Bowl since 2014.
But if the league gets four teams in the NY6/CFP and Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl, the pool of available teams changes:
Tennessee (7-5 if they beat Vanderbilt)
Texas A&M (7-5 if they lose to LSU)
Kentucky (6-5 playing Louisville)
Missouri (6-6 if they beat Arkansas, but ineligible at the moment)
Mississippi State (6-6 if they beat Ole Miss)
You already don’t have enough teams to fill the allotment. You’re two short if Missouri remains ineligible. You’re three short if Ole Miss beats Mississippi State.
Given all of the above, Tennessee and Texas A&M are clearly the cream of this crop. Which brings me to the most important point: Texas A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year.
That being the case, if Auburn is in the Citrus Bowl and the league office is deciding between these five teams, it seems obvious to send A&M to Tampa. From there, the Gator Bowl is traditionally the next-highest in the pecking order; Jacksonville hosted ranked SEC teams three of the last six years and Tennessee and Georgia in two of the other three. By contrast, the Music City Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since 2002. The Belk Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since its agreement with the league in 2014. Last year #24 Missouri became the first ranked SEC team to play in the Liberty Bowl since the arrangement was renewed in 2006. And the Texas Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since its arrangement with the league in 2015.
You can argue about the pecking order of Music City, Liberty, Belk, and Texas. But let’s not pretend the Group of Six doesn’t start with January in Florida.
And that being the case, Tennessee is going to Jacksonville.
If Auburn is in the Citrus Bowl, A&M goes to Tampa because they were in Jacksonville last year and the Vols go to Jacksonville. If Florida is in the Citrus Bowl, Auburn goes to Tampa for the first time since 2014, and the Vols go to Jacksonville because A&M was there last year.
Jason Kirk at Banner Society, who has done my favorite bowl projections for years, currently disputes this theory by sending A&M back to Jacksonville, Auburn to Tampa, and the Vols to Charlotte. The last time the Gator Bowl took the same team in consecutive years was West Virginia in 2004-05. The Outback Bowl took the Vols back-to-back in 2006-07. But it has not happened for either bowl in the last 12 years.
What could disrupt this scenario, besides a loss to Vanderbilt? Outside of total chaos like Georgia Tech beating Georgia, here’s the only scenario I can come up with:
Auburn beats Alabama, Florida State beats Florida, and Oregon beats Utah in the Pac-12 title game
CFP: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma
Sugar: Georgia vs Baylor
Rose: Minnesota vs Oregon
Orange: Penn State vs VT/UVA
Cotton: Group of Five vs Utah
If there were only two SEC teams in the CFP/NY6, then in this scenario let’s say Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl, but the Outback and Gator could choose Florida AND Alabama. It’s quite a longshot, but I’d imagine it would send Tennessee elsewhere. Given that Alabama is -4 and Florida is -17.5 right now, I think we’ll be alright here.
One other wrinkle, on the positive side. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach puts four SEC teams in the CFP/NY6, then sends Auburn to the Citrus Bowl. But instead of sending Texas A&M to Tampa, he sends them to Houston…to face Texas. Would the Aggies rather see their old rivals or play on January 1? Good question, but I’m sure the other powers that be would love it. If that happened, the Vols could get to the Outback Bowl, where Schlabach has them facing Penn State. Stay tuned.
Who Would We Play in Jacksonville?
Let’s assume it is in fact the Gator Bowl for Tennessee. Who are we likely to face there?
However, with bowls things like contracts and rules can be relaxed on college football’s selection Sunday. One scenario I’ve seen, including at Banner Society: the best available Big Ten team is Indiana, and the best available ACC team is the loser of Virginia/Virginia Tech. It’s only a four hour drive from Indiana to Nashville for the Music City Bowl, which sent a representative to see the Hoosiers last week. If it makes sense for all parties involved, those rules will be in theory only. Trading with the Music City would bring the #3 ACC team to Jacksonville, behind the Orange Bowl and the Camping World Bowl. Notre Dame can’t take the ACC spot in Miami, but can in the Camping World Bowl, so the theory is is VT/UVA winner to the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame to Camping World, VT/UVA loser to Jacksonville.
So while there’s an outside chance Tennessee might catch Virginia or Virginia Tech in Jacksonville, the more likely scenario is a Big Ten team. That conference also has rules in place to send its teams to as many different bowls as possible in a six year span. Iowa has been a popular pick for the Gator Bowl, but we remember seeing them there in 2014. The Athletic and the Des Moines Register have details on those contracts as they relate to the Hawkeyes.
Let’s look at the Big Ten picture as a whole. Ohio State seems bound for the CFP. The Rose Bowl takes the next highest-ranked Big Ten team, which will either be Penn State (10-2 post-Rutgers) or the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner. If another Big Ten team is ranked above the next-highest SEC team, they’d get the Orange Bowl but then forfeit their Citrus bowl slot to the ACC. This would not happen if a Big Ten team gets the Cotton Bowl.
Banner Society has Minnesota in the Rose and Penn State in the Cotton. Both ESPN projections leave Penn State out of the New Year’s Six, putting the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner in the Rose and SEC teams in the Orange and Cotton.
Once we get beyond there, the Big Ten’s rules about five different teams playing in bowls over six years come into play. Penn State, for example, played in the Citrus Bowl last year, so don’t look for them back in Orlando. If the Nittany Lions don’t earn a New Year’s Six spot, they’ll be in Tampa (not since 2011).
After the Citrus and the Outback, the Holiday Bowl interrupts the SEC/Big Ten love affair. Both Michigan and Iowa would come into play here: the Wolverines haven’t been to San Diego since 1994, the Hawkeyes since 1991. Then the Gator Bowl, which hasn’t had Michigan since 1991.
So the cleanest scenario would go something like this:
CFP: Ohio State
Rose: Minnesota/Wisconsin winner
Citrus: Minnesota/Wisconsin loser
Outback: Penn State
Holiday: Iowa
Gator: Michigan
If you like that look, watch the College Football Playoff poll this week and see where Penn State lands. If they’re behind Florida, that would be really good news for both the SEC and the chances to see Michigan in the Gator Bowl.
As we’ve noted, I still think the Vols will go to Jacksonville even if the Big Ten gets a third team in the CFP/NY6 and Florida goes to Orlando instead. But if that happens via the Cotton Bowl, Indiana (or an ACC team) becomes a possible alternative for the Gator Bowl.
So, to recap:
Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols should be in Jacksonville
…unless Texas and Texas A&M want a piece of each other, which could send Tennessee to the Outback Bowl
If Penn State ends up in the New Year’s Six, the Gator Bowl could get Indiana or an ACC team
If Penn State isn’t in the New Year’s Six, Michigan seems most likely for the Gator Bowl
It’s important for Penn State to be behind Florida in the new College Football Playoff poll if you want Michigan
