Author Archives: Will Shelton

Are the suspensions of Silvio De Sousa and David McCormack good news or bad news for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes?

If this was college football, maybe you lean into the bad news argument: one game against a top five opponent (and number one in KenPom) playing without a starter and a key reserve, if you beat them they weren’t at full strength, if they beat you it’s a worse loss, etc. But in the 30+ game landscape of college basketball, I don’t think a Tennessee upset at Kansas gets poo-pooed on Selection Sunday unless the Jayhawks fall off the earth without De Sousa, which seems unlikely given that he plays a little more than eight minutes per game. Winning at Kansas would still be a huge deal for this team, and now you’ve got them a little short-handed.

Only a little, though, so a loss here doesn’t end or dramatically change Tennessee’s own bubble hopes. The Vols were in the next four out in the January 23 Bracket Matrix, appearing in 16 of 96 brackets (16.7%). Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols as the first team out.

This Tennessee team continues to find itself in the space between its own history. Here’s a chart we’ve used before, showing Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era:

Year	KenPom	Record	Finish
2019	26.24	31-6	Sweet 16
2014	23.69	24-13	Sweet 16
2018	22.27	26-9	Round 2
2008	22.17	31-5	Sweet 16
2006	19.44	22-8	Round 2
2010	18.50	28-9	Elite 8
2007	18.29	24-11	Sweet 16
2009	16.48	21-13	Round 1
2020	13.50	12-6
2002	12.67	15-16
2017	12.62	16-16
2011	12.41	19-15	Round 1
2012	11.38	19-15	NIT
2003	10.99	17-12	NIT
2013	10.47	20-13	NIT
2005	8.89	14-17
2016	7.31	15-19
2004	7.30	15-14	NIT
2015	7.24	16-16

The Vols continue to play a tick below every Tennessee team to make the NCAA Tournament post-Jerry Green except one (Bruce Pearl’s final season), and a tick above the rest of the field. Some of those Tennessee teams in that next group down made the NIT, some finished at or near .500.

If you compare the Vols to a couple of teams we hoped could make the tournament in late January, you’ll find some cautionary tales. Donnie Tyndall’s squad was 12-5 (4-1) five years ago today, though just 77th in KenPom. And the advanced metrics proved to be true: Tennessee went 3-10 the rest of the regular season, failed to make the NIT, and finished with the lowest KenPom rating of any Vol squad (2002-present).

Rick Barnes’ second squad lost to Chattanooga in the opener, dropped a pair of close games in Maui, and almost won at Chapel Hill. They were 9-9 (2-4) through their first 18 games before winning four in a row, including Kentucky and Kansas State in Knoxville, to get to 13-9 (5-4) at the end of January. But they went 3-6 the rest of the way home, and also failed to make the NIT despite finishing that season 57th in KenPom.

So we’ve seen Tennessee get to this point through the first third of SEC play twice in the last six years, only to watch them peak too soon and ultimately miss both the NCAA and the NIT. This season there’s a separate conversation to be had with Tennessee’s schedule, which takes a step up in February and then a giant leap in the last five games (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). Right now, the Vols just need wins; the opportunity for quality will be there at the end if the total is high enough to be in the conversation.

But if you’re looking for a resume win, this would be the best one of the season, with or without De Sousa and McCormack.

It’s clearly a chaos year in college basketball, which leads to a soft bubble. The current last four in via the Bracket Matrix:

• Virginia Tech 14-5 (5-3), 57 KenPom
• NC State 14-5 (5-3), 43 KenPom
• Minnesota 11-8 (5-4), 34 KenPom
• DePaul 13-6 (1-5), 62 KenPom

And here’s who went to Dayton last year:

• Belmont 27-6 (16-2), 49 KenPom
• Temple 23-10 (13-5), 69 KenPom
• St. John’s 21-13 (8-10), 88 KenPom
• Arizona State 23-11 (12-6), 57 KenPom

Last season only two teams with more than 13 losses made the field as an at-large: Florida (19-15) as a 10 seed, Ohio State (19-14) as an 11. That might get a run for its money this season. If Tennessee ends the regular season at 18-13 (10-8) – its current KenPom projection – the Vols should be in the conversation.

A win over Kansas would do incredible things for that conversation. But even without that, a good performance from the SEC in this weekend’s challenge would be big. Unlike years past, we’ll get most of the league’s best in the running tomorrow: Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Georgia sit it out this year. Big 12 teams are still favored in six of ten matchups in KenPom:

• Missouri at #14 West Virginia – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• Iowa State at #16 Auburn – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
• LSU at Texas – 2:00 PM – ESPN
• Mississippi State at Oklahoma – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
• Tennessee at #3 Kansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN
• TCU at Arkansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
• Oklahoma State at Texas A&M – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
• #15 Kentucky at #18 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Kansas State at Alabama – 6:00 PM – ESPN2
• #1 Baylor at Florida – 8:00 PM – ESPN

The SEC is currently tied for fourth among major conferences in KenPom’s league efficiency ratings, a clear step behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12 – which is why a tie or win tomorrow would be huge for the league – but a crowded SEC can hold its own against the ACC and Pac-12, creating opportunity on the bubble.

At the top of all these projections, of course, is Kansas. The Jayhawks are number one in KenPom, but chaos controls atop the ladder as well: until their 21-point win over Kansas State, Kansas led the nation in KenPom but their efficiency rating was below 30. Only twice in the KenPom era has the number one team finished with a rating below 30: the 2006 Florida Gators, and in 2003, when 32-4 Kentucky finished atop the leaderboard but was upset by Dwyane Wade in the Elite Eight. Both of those seasons saw three seeds win the NCAA Tournament, and elite superstars can shine in the absence of an elite team (Horford and Noah in 2006, Wade plus Carmelo Anthony from the eventual champs in 2003). To put this in perspective: the 2019 Vols, 10th in KenPom with a 26.24 efficiency rating, would be 3rd in 2020 KenPom right now.

There are still good reasons Kansas is number one, and they start with Devon Dotson: the 6’2″ sophomore guard leads the race for KenPom Player of the Year, and is in the Top 300 nationally in ten different statistical categories. Offensively, he’s been sensational at getting to the line: 6.4 attempts per game shooting 82.5% from the stripe. This happened to Tennessee last year, when Dotson had 17 points on eight shots plus 6-of-7 at the stripe in their overtime win. Defensively, Dotson has created at least one steal in every game this season, including five in their overtime win against Dayton. This is very bad news for a Tennessee team currently giving up a steal on 11% of its possessions; how the primary ball-handlers deal with Dotson and the environment is step one of any blueprint for an uspet.

The loss of a 6’9″ and 6’10” player due to suspension would be a big deal for just about any other team…but Udoka Azubuike negates a bunch of that. Everything we’ve been saying about the importance of John Fulkerson getting quality touches in the paint – 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 34th nationally in two-point field goal percentage – Azubuike is the poster child for. He leads the nation in effective field goal percentage because the seven-footer is 94-of-122 (77%) from inside the arc. For a Tennessee defense built on shot-blocking (12th nationally) and playing great defense inside the arc (4th nationally), Azubuike is the biggest test Tennessee will see all season.

It’s a tough ask: Dotson excels at taking the ball away from an already-sloppy Tennessee backcourt, Azubuike excels at scoring inside in ways that might negate Tennessee’s greatest defensive strength. Kansas is projected to win by 14 in KenPom; playing close may not help the tournament resume directly, but would move the Vols up the ladder wherever advanced metrics come into play.

So how do you beat this team? What worked for Baylor (don’t foul Dotson, don’t turn it over) and, to a degree, Villanova, doesn’t seem as feasible for Tennessee. But what the Vols can do, for starters: don’t be afraid to get physical and put them on the line. Kansas shoots 66.7% as a team; take away Dotson (and McCormack, a 75% shooter), and you’ve got Azubuike at 40.3% (29-of-72) and Marcus Garrett at 67.4%.

And on the other end, going at these guys and getting Azubuike off the floor would expose the absence of De Sousa and McCormack. A couple quick fouls on the seven footer could change the complexion of this game, and Tennessee’s best basketball in the post-Lamonte/Santiago Vescovi world has involved getting to the line: Tennessee shot five free throws against LSU and a dozen at Georgia, but in the four wins:

• Missouri: 12-of-16 (75%)
• South Carolina: 22-of-28 (78%)
• Vanderbilt: 13-of-14 (92%)
• Ole Miss: 20-of-24 (83%)

Get in there and bang, on both ends of the floor.

What’s interesting about Saturday is it’ll be the first time in a few years that #Vols basketball can go into any game with absolutely nothign to lose.

Might as well play fast and hard and see what happens, right? Nothing to lose.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) January 23, 2020

The bubble is still going to be there on Sunday. In a season full of chaos, one we’ve felt con gusto in Knoxville, Tennessee can create a little more of its own on Saturday. Land some blows, climb the ladder, and we’ll see if the Vols can cash it in.

College Gameday at 11:00 AM, then the Vols and Kansas at 4:00 PM (with the A-team of Shulman, Bilas, and Rowe). Big day ahead.

Go Vols.

First, the history: Vanderbilt, as I’m sure you know by now, made a three in each of its 1,080 games since the line came to college basketball in 1986. Tonight, they went 0-for-25.

That’s fun, and the kind of semi-petty rivalry stuff you love. It’s strange to say, but the Vols have now won five of six at Memorial Gym, and four straight since Kevin Stallings left.

The history will get the headlines, but Tennessee’s defense overall was outstanding: the Commodores, to their credit, went 21-of-26 at the free throw line, which is the only reason they didn’t score something in the 30’s. Along with 0-for-25 from three, Vandy went 12-of-26 from two. A dozen made shots is the fewest the Vols have allowed since Donnie Tyndall’s season, when Mississippi State hit 11.

In the first half, it looked like we would have to embrace our worst fears for the rest of this season. The Vols led 21-20 at the break and neither team made a three. But the start of the second half was indeed Tennessee’s best basketball without Lamonte Turner. After a Fulkerson turnover to open the second 20 minutes, we got the following sequence:

• Fulkerson steal
• Bowden layup
• Bowden steal
• Bowden layup
• Vanderbilt turnover
• Vescovi jumper
• Vanderbilt miss
• Pons wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1218691525238050817

After scoring 21 points in the first 20 minutes, the Vols hit an 8-0 spurt in less than 90 seconds. Defense led to offense, offense went to the rim, rinse repeat: the Vols hit 10 of their first 11 shots in the second half and finished at 53.1% from the floor. Most importantly, perhaps: the Vols went just 1-of-8 from three.

Tennessee’s previous season low on attempted threes: their best win, 13 against Washington. The Vols had an eight-three game against Tennessee Tech last season; before that, you have to go back to the Cuonzo Maritn era to find a single digit three game.

Vanderbilt is struggling, especially without Aaron Nesmith, and you can’t build a resume on what you do against the Commodores right now. But you can build confidence, and that’s exactly what it looked like Jordan Bowden did tonight. It’s the kind of game we thought we’d need from him coming into the season: leads the team in shots at 7-of-11, plus gets to the line eight times and hits seven. The high-percentage stuff inside was there too: John Fulkerson took 10 shots after getting just two at Georgia, making five to finish with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Pons went 5-of-7. Josiah James was just 2-of-8 but facilitated on the break like a champ, picking up a number of hockey assists after grabbing nine defensive rebounds. And while the Vols are still working in Plavsic, they also got nice bench minutes from Olivier Nkamhoua with four points and four boards.

In KenPom the Vols go to #25 in defensive efficiency. I doubt teams are going to go 0-for-three the rest of the way, but Tennessee can still cause all kinds of trouble on one end of the floor to create better opportunities for itself where it struggles on the other end. Tennessee welcomes Ole Miss on Tuesday night, currently leading the only undefeated team left in conference play from LSU. Then the Vols go to Kansas, number one in KenPom and hosting College Gameday on Saturday. There’s a lot of basketball in front of the 11-6 (3-2) Vols. The competition will get stiffer and the luck will be kinder to future opponents. But the makings of Tennessee’s best basketball were on display tonight; hopefully they and the confidence they inspired will come on back to Knoxville.

Go Vols.

The Vols fell to 10-6 (2-2) on Wednesday. Sure, Georgia shot well above their averages from three (10-of-23) and at the line (16-of-21), doing us no favors. But Tennessee’s offensive woes continued, even as the quality of defensive competition decreased. The Vols took 26 threes and made only six of them, while getting to the line only a dozen times. Jordan Bowden was better from inside the arc, but went 0-for-5 from three (as did Yves Pons). It was a forgettable performance in a 17-point loss that was worse than that for much of the night.

It’s not exclusively good news, but the league is a certified mess right now. Kentucky lost 81-78 at the same South Carolina team that struggled to score 55 in Knoxville. And top five Auburn, 15-0, went to Alabama and lost by 19 in just their third game against a Top 50 KenPom opponent this season.

Those same ratings project LSU – 4-0 and with a schedule that includes Kentucky and Auburn just once each – to win the league at 13-5, with five other teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8. KenPom projects more of the same for the Vols: a 9-9 SEC finish (plus a loss at Kansas) which would leave Tennessee at 17-14 on the year.

It’s still too early with too many moving pieces to throw in the towel on this season, but it’s also too early to assume the NIT would be a safe landing spot. As has been the case since Lamonte Turner went out, Tennessee simply needs wins. The younger players getting better is probably the biggest storyline for the program, but if the Vols can piece together more wins like Missouri and South Carolina, they can at least stay in the postseason conversation.

To do that, it’s abundantly clear they have to rely on their defense, still 37th nationally in KenPom and eighth nationally in defending inside the arc, thanks in part to being 17th nationally in shot blocking. That has to become the constant, with Vescovi and Plavsic getting better and not worse as things go along. On the offensive side, there are enough individual points of hope to make Barnes’ frustrations justified, like this:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: We need so much more from our guards, and we need a post guy to step up and want to score the ball. Fulky just won’t accept that role. Tonight was Uros’ first game, but he actually did some of that stuff, which was good to see.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) January 16, 2020

Fulkerson is 69-of-104 (66.3%) on the year, making him 45th nationally in two-point field goal percentage and 15th in effective field goal percentage. If you thought Kyle Alexander was a high percentage bucket in there, he shot 61.7% from two last year. What Fulkerson is doing is closer to Alexander’s 2018 season, when he went 76-of-112 (67.9%). The difference, of course, is the last two Vol teams had a number of other offensive options. On the current Tennessee roster, going inside to Fulkerson is one of the best plays the Vols can make. Some defenses do a great job denying the ball in there, some can create a mismatch with size in the post. But even as Tennessee is trying to work in Plavsic in the post, we can’t have a game where Fulkerson takes only two shots (Georgia) or three (Wisconsin). Do watch the seven footer as he gets a feel here: Plavsic took six shots in 17 minutes compared to Fulkerson’s two in 22.

Tennessee is fourth nationally in assist rate, sharing the ball on 65.4% of their made baskets. Sometimes that comes via style of play: VMI is second in the nation in this department with nearly half their shots coming from the arc. But while a number of elite offenses get there this way – Michigan State, Iowa, Dayton, Tennessee last year – it’s clearly not a sign of an elite offense by itself. Maine is seventh nationally in assist rate, but 335th in KenPom offense and 5-13 overall.

What it tells us about Tennessee: the Vols can’t get buckets without ball movement. There’s no one on this team who successfully creates their own shot. That should change next year, though it isn’t always tied to a Rick Barnes offense: the Vols were 188th in this stat his first year in the Kevin Punter show. In the early portion of this season, Lamonte Turner put up numbers that would still rank fourth nationally in assist rate. Vescovi is making progress in his assist-to-turnover ratio, but it’s a big ask for him to even approach what Lamonte was doing for this team early in the season. Still, the Vols can be good here – assisting on 18 of 24 made shots against LSU, 10 of 14 against South Carolina – with an emphasis on simply getting good shots. I’m fine with open threes that don’t go down. Clearly there are few bad shots for Fulkerson in the post. Too often Tennessee gets bogged down in the half-court and is forced to make a bad decision at the end of the shot clock. Get good shots, and trust your defense to take care of the difference.

What’s a good shot when the Vols don’t get quality touches in the post and have to settle for more threes? We need more data on Vescovi, who is now 11-of-22 on the year. Early returns from Yves Pons have cooled: he’s now at 30.2%. Jordan Bowden continues to struggle at 27.8%. By far the brightest spot right now: Josiah James at 20-of-51 (39.2%). He’s been shooting it more in Lamonte’s absence, 12-of-21 (57.1%) in the last five games. It’s clearly not enough to win by itself, but the Vols would be well suited to look and create for the freshman more.

You can’t assume anything in the SEC this year, but the closest thing might be Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 8-8 in Jerry Stackhouse’s first season, and just lost Aaron Nesmith with a stress fracture. It’s a bad blow for their program, who just lost a year of Darius Garland last season. Nesmith’s absence puts even more on Saben Lee, with a host of freshmen behind him.

The Commodores put a scare in Auburn on the road, but without Nesmith lost to Texas A&M in Nashville by 19 and at Arkansas by 20. Other than UNC Asheville and Alabama State, Vanderbilt is the worst defense Tennessee will see all season, by far. The Commodores are 249th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. They foul a lot, which could help Tennessee get more of their offense heading in that direction. And they’re the worst team in the league overall at 161st in KenPom.

As we know, you assume nothing in Memorial Gym, where the freshly-minted #1 Vols almost went down last season. But it’s the best possible SEC opponent given what’s currently ailing Tennessee.

6:00 PM ET Saturday on the SEC Network.

Go Vols.

Literal big news:

.@urosp34 has been ruled eligible to compete, effective immediatelyhttps://t.co/1RO7L4kK3b

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) January 14, 2020

A strange season takes another turn: the Vols started the year with 11 games of Lamonte Turner, and will end it, if healthy, with at least 17 games of Uros Plavsic. Turner’s absence and Tennessee’s 1-4 stretch surrounding it made it difficult for the Washington and VCU wins with Turner to be worth as much on the bubble. But now, if the Vols can get hot while working in Plavsic the same way they’ve done Santiago Vescovi, Tennessee can build a separate argument for what they’ve done with these two additions.

That starts at Georgia tonight, where the Vols will face potential number one overall pick Anthony Edwards. Tennessee saw Shaquille O’Neal at LSU in the early 90’s – shout out to Carlus Groves – then didn’t play a number one pick for the next 15 years. That’s changed drastically since then, thanks in large part to John Calipari:

2016	Ben Simmons	LSU
2015	Karl-Anthony Towns	Kentucky
2012	Anthony Davis	Kentucky
2010	John Wall	Kentucky
2008	Derrick Rose	Memphis
2007	Greg Oden	Ohio State

The Vols beat Ben Simmons in the regular season but lost the rematch in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee also beat John Wall in Knoxville in 2010 and, of course, got the best of Derrick Rose and Memphis in 2008.

The 6’5″ Edwards made a name for himself by scoring 37 points against Michigan State, including 7-of-16 from the arc. He’s taken no more than nine threes in any other game, including the last two when cold spells helped the Dawgs get off to an 0-2 start in league play, thanks in large part to the schedule. Kentucky won in Athens 78-69, and Auburn held serve at home with a dominant 82-60 win. Edwards had 23 points on 17 shots against Kentucky, 18 on 17 against Auburn. He’ll put it up: via KenPom, Edwards is 18th nationally in shot percentage, taking more than a third of Georgia’s shots when he’s on the floor.

Edwards is only a 30.5% three-point shooter; when Kentucky and Auburn chased him off the line, he did go 9-of-14 inside the arc. He gets to the free throw line with 72 attempts on the year (4.8 per game), but only shoots 68.1% once there. Did someone mention a seven foot rim protector with five more fouls to give?

Edwards also shares the ball well, relatively speaking, but when it goes in for Georgia from another player it’s usually Rayshaun Hammonds. The 6’9″ junior plays the five, which means right away we get to talk about Uros giving Tennessee an advantage we haven’t seen all season. After the Vols found great success against Missouri playing Yves Pons at the five, I’ll be curious to see if they carve out some time for that lineup as well.

I don’t think last season’s 96-50 win in Knoxville is much of a talking point here. Georgia finished the season 11-21 (2-16), but is already way better in Tom Crean’s second season, and not solely on the strength of Edwards. They’re tested, having played Dayton and Michigan State well before opening league play with Kentucky and Auburn. And they went to Memphis and won 65-62 on January 4, and not because Edwards had a huge game (4-of-17 shooting). They held Memphis to 38.5% from the floor and took advantage of the Tigers shooting 11-of-20 at the stripe.

Memphis did pinpoint one of their biggest weaknesses: giving up offensive rebounds, where the Dawgs are 276th nationally and undersized like us on Monday. Memphis had 15 offensive rebounds against them; Auburn had 13 and Kentucky a dozen. Georgia also does themselves no favors at the free throw line or in turning the ball over.

Any team with the number one pick is dangerous; the Vols got a spark from Vescovi, and Plavsic has been practicing with the team all season, but we’re not sure exactly what we’re going to get here and that could lead to the kind of weirdness that costs us tonight. If Tennessee is truly going to build a resume on what they do from here, with Vescovi and Plavsic, it’s a nice on-ramp: at Georgia, at Vanderbilt, vs Ole Miss before we go to Kansas. If you want that argument, it needs to start with a win tonight.

Advertising enthusiasts, rejoice: 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU.

Go Vols.

What Tennessee did against South Carolina was a perfect example of where this team is and what it will take going forward. The Vols shot 25.9% from the floor, which would’ve been the worst number in any of the last ten years if not for going 25% from the floor against Memphis. Yet Tennessee had a chance to win that game, and actually got it done this time: they held South Carolina to 32.8% from the floor, 2-of-13 (15.4%) from the arc, and the Vols knocked down 22-of-28 free throws.

Tennessee is 29th nationally in defensive efficiency (via KenPom), and has faced a schedule ranking 34th by opposing defenses. You know what you’re getting into against Kansas, Kentucky, Auburn, and Arkansas going forward, but the rest of Tennessee’s schedule should lighten a bit in this department. For the most part, the Vols can still defend well enough to give themselves a chance.

But this offense is now 114th nationally in efficiency. That’s the lowest number at Tennessee since Kevin O’Neill’s last season in 1997, when the Vols went 11-16 (4-12) and finished 278th in offensive efficiency. The only other year the Vols finished outside the Top 100 was Cuonzo Martin’s first campaign in 2012, when UT finished 106th.

Right now every shot that goes in is a big deal. Tennessee’s 14 made field goals against South Carolina tied Florida State for a season low; the Vols made just 15 shots against Memphis and 16 against Wisconsin. Tennessee continues to get high-percentage scoring from John Fulkerson (21st nationally in effective field goal percentage), but continues to have a tough time getting him quality touches inside.

Meanwhile, the late revelation at Missouri came with Fulkerson off the floor. With six minutes to play and the Vols down three, a lineup with Yves Pons at the five surrounded by Vescovi, Bowden, James, and Jalen Johnson ripped off a 14-3 run over three-and-a-half minutes. Tennessee’s small ball lineup spaced the floor and created a number of great looks for three point shooters.

From the arc, Santiago Vescovi is red hot out the gate at 10-of-18 (55.6%). Josiah James is also doing a nice job at 37.8% on the year. With Jordan Bowden now dipping under 30%, I’m curious to see how the Vols adapt their shot selection. Again, some of this should get better just by virtue of who’s next on the schedue: at Georgia (83rd in defensive efficiency), at Vanderbilt (242nd), and vs Ole Miss (119th) before going to Kansas next Saturday.

Overall, this team currently sits about where you’d expect when compared to their predecessors:

Year	KenPom	Record	Finish
2019	26.24	31-6	Sweet 16
2014	23.69	24-13	Sweet 16
2018	22.27	26-9	Round 2
2008	22.17	31-5	Sweet 16
2006	19.44	22-8	Round 2
2010	18.50	28-9	Elite 8
2007	18.29	24-11	Sweet 16
2009	16.48	21-13	Round 1
2020	13.31	10-5
2002	12.67	15-16
2017	12.62	16-16
2011	12.41	19-15	Round 1
2012	11.38	19-15	NIT
2003	10.99	17-12	NIT
2013	10.47	20-13	NIT
2005	8.89	14-17
2016	7.31	15-19
2004	7.30	15-14	NIT
2015	7.24	16-16

In KenPom, this team is behind all of Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams post-Jerry Green except for Bruce Pearl’s final season. Their closest comparison is Buzz Peterson’s first team, which lost seven one-possession or overtime games between December 15 and January 16, then lost Ron Slay to a torn ACL at the end of that stretch. Slay’s absence is probably the best historical comparison to this team losing Lamonte Turner. And that group’s 15-16 (7-9) finish shows the importance of winning close games, which can be the difference between the bubble and not even making the NIT in a season like this.

It’s why any win is a good one now, including a one-point slugfest against South Carolina. KenPom projects the Vols to finish 18-13 (10-8), which would at least send them to the SEC Tournament in the bubble conversation. The league has two ranked teams in Auburn and Kentucky, and then a lot of iffiness. Arkansas lost some of their momentum in a two-point loss at LSU, while the Tigers regained their close game magic in a 3-0 SEC start.

The Vols will keep figuring out, and it’s fun to watch the freshmen get better, not just Vescovi and James who play a lot, but guys like Drew Pember who can find themselves in crucial situations. The difference in this year ending at .500 and landing on the right side of the bubble is likely to be what the Vols do in close games. In SEC play, so far, so good.

The Vols have lost four of five, but Santiago Vescovi injected new interest into this season. In his second act, what changes more: six threes or nine turnovers?

Even without Lamonte Turner, Tennessee’s offense goes almost exclusively through good ball movement. Against Wisconsin Tennessee made just 16 shots, the fourth time this season the Vols made less than 20 field goals. But they still managed 12 assists. The ball went in much more often against LSU, but many of those threes still came off good ball movement, including penetration from Vescovi: 24 made shots with 18 assists.

Lamonte’s assist rate would still rank sixth nationally, but Tennessee still has it in its DNA: the Vols are fourth nationally in assist rate as a team, assisting on two-thirds of their made shots. But there’s a general problem here – does Tennessee have anybody who can create their own shot? – as well as a specific one the last two games. Against Wisconsin, the Vols got to the line 19 times but only made 10 free throws. Against LSU, the Vols shot just five free throws.

Vescovi will get better at finishing in the lane and not turning the ball over. He’s not going to hit six threes every night, nor am I sure Barnes wants him to take nine a game. But he’s also not going to go 0-for-4 from inside the arc with nine turnovers. We watch Vescovi with excitement for next season, a dedicated point guard hopefully expanding the potential of Tennessee’s elite incoming talent. But I’m still interested to see how if/how he can transform this year’s team: can he successfully create his own shot? Will he adjust his game in the lane fast enough to score at the rim?

Everything is very much in flux with this team, including:

https://twitter.com/Troy_Provost/status/1213544908570513408

Bowden’s minutes are 33.5 per game. Vescovi, fresh off the plane, played 32 minutes against LSU. There’s a lot more figuring out in front of this team than behind it, which will be frustrating with moments of enlightenment along the way.

The bad news: I’m not sure Cuonzo is who you want to be figuring your offense out against.

If those 16 made shots against Wisconsin felt low, they were: the Vols made just 15 shots in the infamous Virginia and Georgetown games in Cuonzo’s second season when the Vols, learning to play without Jeronne Maymon, ran into good defensive teams. You’ll find Maymon on Mizzou’s sideline these days, and the same defensive philosophy very much intact: the Tigers are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Missouri is battle-tested, with losses to Xavier, Butler, Oklahoma, and a 71-59 defeat at Rupp in the SEC opener. They also beat rival Illinois on a neutral floor. Teams shoot just 25.9% against them from the arc, so yeah, it’s a great time to figure out how Vescovi can help Tennessee elsewhere. Much to Cuonzo’s chagrin, I’m sure, the Tigers are 338th nationally in non-steal turnover percentage on offense (via KenPom), meaning they love to give the ball away unnecessarily.

This may not be the match-up you want if you’re looking for Tennessee’s best chance to break this losing streak. But if you want the blessings and curses of Tennessee trying to figure themselves out against a team that will force them to do things differently…well, that’s probably what we’re going to get. Watch the lineups, watch Vescovi, and see if the Vols can get to the line and convert inside the arc.

7:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Let’s see what we learn this time.

Go Vols.

From Jacksonville to Thompson-Boling, Tennessee tips off SEC play at high noon. It’s what looked like an incredibly appealing opener to conference play: Will Wade and LSU return to Knoxville after perhaps last season’s angriest loss. The Vols led for much of regulation in Baton Rouge, but LSU – on the strength of 31 free throw attempts to just 16 for the Vols – got it to overtime, then won on another foul call with 0.6 seconds left. That victory helped the Tigers get to 16-2 in league play, one game better than Tennessee, and steal the SEC title.

It looked like Wade wouldn’t be around for the return match, and then it looked like he was a prime candidate to become one of our favorite villains. But Tennessee now has its own problems, losers of three of four to Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin, the latter a 20-point blowout in the first game without Lamonte Turner.

The big picture for the SEC: the traffic jam in this league is backed up further than anyone wanted. Auburn is undefeated and ranked eighth, still yet to face anyone better than NC State (KenPom #35). Kentucky went 2-1 against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Louisville, but also lost to Evansville and Utah. Arkansas has been a nice surprise in Eric Musselman’s first season, 11-1 with an overtime loss to Western Kentucky. They just got their best win over Indiana (#37 KenPom).

Everyone else has experienced some level of disappointment:

• Florida: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, UConn, Butler, and Utah State
• LSU: 8-4 with losses to VCU, Utah State, ETSU, and USC
• Tennessee: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin
• Mississippi State: 9-3 with losses to Villanova, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State

As such, the league has no teams in the KenPom Top 10, with Auburn (13), Kentucky (15), Florida (26), and Arkansas (31) leading the way at the moment. That next tier looks like the bubble: LSU (41), Tennessee (43), Mississippi State (48), and Missouri (53).

In the January 1 Bracket Matrix, Auburn is a three seed, Kentucky a six, Arkansas an eight. Then Tennessee and Florida are in Dayton, with LSU among the next four out.

It’s a tough look for a league that sent eight teams to the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and seven last year. Auburn and Arkansas are untested on an elite level, Kentucky has elite wins and bad losses, and the rest of the league’s tournament hopefuls have more losses than wins in major non-conference games.

It could also create the kind of gridlock that hurts everyone more than it helps them. KenPom’s SEC projections have eight teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8 in conference play. It should make for a really exciting season, but for teams looking to move up that bracket you might need more separation than that.

Tennessee will have Sergio Vescovi available today. The Vol offense has plummeted to 90th in KenPom, 294th in three point shooting just under 30%. The first thing Vescovi can do is simply help Tennessee get better looks; the Wisconsin game got depressing in a hurry (a weird environment for a sold-out crowd) because the Badger defense did a great job making the Vols even less comfortable without Lamonte.

The highest-percentage scorers on this team are…John Fulkerson and Yves Pons. Pons is in the Top 200 nationally in effective field goal percentage, but got just four shots off against Wisconsin. And when Barnes says they want Fulkerson to shoot more, he’s not kidding: Fulky is 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage, and one of the few offensive bright spots in these last four games.

Tennessee’s SEC schedule is ridiculously back-loaded, but these first three games may be no friend to a team trying to figure out how to play without their point guard. LSU goes through their guards in a way few Tennessee opponents this season have. Javonte Smart and Skylar Mays will be a challenge. Tennessee is accustomed to playing defense-first teams: Memphis, Wisconsin, and Florida State are all Top 20 defenses in KenPom, while VCU, Cincinnati, and Washington all lean on defense more than offense. All of those teams also run a significant portion of their offense through their size.

So even though LSU is the first real threat this season to lean on its offense, because so much of that runs through their guard play while Tennessee is trying to figure out theirs, I’m not exactly sure that’s a good thing. For this game and beyond, Tennessee absolutely has to lean on its defense and play like its tournament fate depends on it, because it probably does.

After this one, the Vols go to Missouri on Tuesday night, then get South Carolina in Knoxville next Saturday. If I’m trying to break in a brand new point guard and learn how to play without the old one, catching LSU’s guards, Cuonzo Martin, and Frank Martin isn’t the ideal start.

But it’s the one we have, and the Vols should have another great crowd on hand today. Get better shots, get Vescovi worked in, and let’s see how far defense can take us. The ingredients for a feisty match-up with Will Wade’s team will still be there if the Vols respond better out of the gate.

High noon, ESPNU. Not sure the commercials are as good when you’re not working the night shift on ESPNU, but the Vols are going to have to win their way back to better networks.

Go Vols.