Author Archives: Will Shelton

The big things rarely come easily. Tennessee had more reason for optimism against the Gators than ever, but Florida, to their credit, was ready.

But play-for-play, over the course of 60 minutes – including a tense final few – we saw so much of not what the Vols could be, but what they are, present tense. And what they are is enough to beat Florida, move to 4-0 on the year, and say hello to the Top 10.

And we get a whole extra week to enjoy it.

https://twitter.com/josh_dobbs1/status/1573867864116838401

Six years ago, Josh Dobbs and the Vols fell behind 21-0, then rallied for one of the great days in Neyland Stadium. Dobbs was brilliant on that day: 16-of-32 for 319 yards, four touchdowns to two interceptions, plus 17 carries for 80 yards and a score.

What word, then, do we use to describe Hendon Hooker yesterday?

22-of-28 for 349 yards, two touchdowns and, again, no interceptions. He ran 13 times for 112 yards and another score.

And much like Dobbs six years ago, who fired multiple second half touchdowns on third down, Hooker was at the helm for so many had-to-have it plays:

• Backed up deep after the Florida punt – the only punt of the entire game – the Vols had 3rd-and-10 at their own 12 with 1:15 left in the half. Hooker fired a strike to Princeton Fant right at the marker, who made a great catch for a first down. That enabled Ramel Keyton’s stupendous diving catch on the very next play.
• On the one yard line with no timeouts in the same drive, seven seconds to play, Hooker rolled out and showed great patience, hitting Bru McCoy in the back of the end zone. A crucial sequence that gave the Vols six instead of three before the half.
• A holding penalty with goal-to-go could’ve ended the next drive with just three. No problem: Hooker checked it down to Jabari Small, who walked in from 16 yards out. Over and over on Saturday, the Vols turned a negative into a positive. Penalties, sacks, and early mistakes never stopped a drive.
• Probably his individual highlight of the day: a 44-yard escape/run on the very first play of the next drive. Every time Florida scored in the early goings of the second half, the Vols answered immediately.

This was an all-time performance by a Tennessee offense. We’ve got a week to figure out just how high it might rank. The Vols averaged 8.23 yards per play against a Florida defense that surrendered 4.39 per play to Kentucky. Tennessee faced third down nine times and converted six of them. Josh Heupel and Alex Golesh put on a play-calling clinic; it’s one thing to have receivers running free against the Missouris of the world. Yesterday was something else entirely.

Defensively, the Gators picked up 6.83 yards per play, almost identical to their performance against South Florida and less than the 7.16 they picked up against Utah. Credit Anthony Richardson for making plays, especially on fourth down. Tennessee’s pressure was a lot of almost, which almost made for a frustrating afternoon. Both teams fumbled in the red zone. Richardson was obviously less accurate than Hooker, but when he hit, he hit. But credit the Vol defense for making the plays they needed to make, especially after a picture-perfect onside kick gave Florida life. Tim Banks sent pressure, and it led to victory.

We’ll see what kind of year Florida ends up having. But no matter the answer to that question, this Tennessee team – its players and coaches – have earned confidence to go against the Gators and win. Josh Heupel gets his third ranked win; for comparison, Butch Jones got his third ranked win in the Outback Bowl at the conclusion of year three. Heupel also moves to 3-3 in one-possession games, a stat we may see more of before this year is done.

Losses by Oklahoma and Arkansas will send Tennessee into the Top 10. If the Vols hit #8, it will be their highest ranking since 2006, when the Vols took #7 into October and were #8 the first week of November. There are two-thirds of this regular season left to play. And we’ll enjoy the bye, and then it’s Baton Rouge. You hit the Top 10, and they’re all big games.

This is Tennessee Football: a program with rich history and a long walk through transition. A team that can still improve.

And a team, right now, that we can believe in.

Go Vols.

The AccuWeather app says it best:

It’s great that is indeed on the table this weekend.

If you’re looking for the comparison in the “biggest game since” category, I don’t think there’s a good one available. We forget part of this, but six years ago #1 Alabama came to town to face #9 Tennessee. Rightfully so: #1 Bama did #1 Bama things, dismantling and demolishing the Vols in what remains the highest-ranked Third Saturday in October of all time. Then Tennessee’s entire season started falling apart two weeks later.

So we choose not to remember that one for our own safety, but for this part – the part leading up to kickoff – that was the biggest game around here in a very, very long time. Until it wasn’t, and it wasn’t quickly, and then quickly we had even harder things to talk about.

I think it’s safe to say even the biggest pessimist among us doesn’t imagine this Florida team doing that Alabama team things to us on Saturday, so we’re safe from that comparison. But after that one, it’s also hard to find a good comparison in the other direction. After that Alabama game, Saturday will be the game featuring the two highest-ranked teams in Neyland Stadium since 2007:

Highest Ranked vs. Ranked Games in Neyland Stadium, 2008-2022

• 2016: #1 Alabama vs #9 Tennessee
• 2022: #11 Tennessee vs #20 Florida
• 2016: #14 Tennessee vs #19 Florida
• 2012: #18 Florida vs #23 Tennessee
• 2015: #19 Oklahoma vs #23 Tennessee

None of those others really fit either, though we’d take the 2016 Florida outcome for sure. This carries not the Year Three if-not-now-when pressure of 2012 Florida and 2015 Oklahoma; the numbers next to those names were already a better fit for the Pitt game anyway.

And we won that one, which is how we got to this one.

Which is still amazing that it even exists.

At kick-off, never mind all that sentimentality and appreciation, let’s go win by a thousand. But here, on Friday, one final word to say how grateful we are that this Saturday is here.

We said this last year leading up to the Ole Miss game, how crazy it was that an opportunity like that was even available in October of Year One in Year 13 of trying to get this right.

In September of Year Two of Year 14 of trying to get this right, we might get to stop counting.

It may have to happen without Cedric Tillman. So far he and Jalin Hyatt have 35 of Tennessee’s 74 receptions, 47.3% of the Vols’ total receptions. If that percentage held the entire season, it would be the second-highest for a Vol duo in the post-Fulmer era…right behind Velus Jones and Cedric Tillman last year. It’s what this offense likes.

So without one half of its customary one-two punch, where will the Vol passing game turn? Wide receivers have 87.8% of Tennessee’s receptions through three games, an absurd number. Jacob Warren has two catches for 41 yards. Princeton Fant has three for 31. Running backs have three catches total. Might there be some options in those departments if the Vols can’t plug-and-play a replacement for Tillman in the starting lineup at receiver?

The bigger predictor of success and failure remains pass protection. When Hendon Hooker averages 3+ yards per carry as Tennessee’s starter, the Vols are 7-1. The lone loss is Ole Miss last year, when he ran for 108 yards at 4.7 per attempt. When Hooker averages less than three yards per carry as UT’s starter, the Vols are 2-4. That includes the Ball State and Pitt wins this year, and the losses to Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Purdue last year.

Hooker was sacked on 10.88% of his dropbacks last year vs FBS competition, a jarring number and a costly one. This year, that number is at 4.67%, but two of those games were against Akron and Ball State as you know. Pitt’s defense was more problematic. Florida, however, has struggled: they got Will Levis three times on 24 passing attempts, but went o-fer against Utah and South Florida.

So yes, there are reasons for confidence all around us. And it shows, even in the midst of 16 of the last 17 years: in our Expected Win Total Machine, Tennessee fans give the Vols a 65.7% chance of victory. If the closest comparison to this game is the Ole Miss affair last year, just in terms of opportunity? Tennessee fans came in at 47.2% on that one last year, and the Vols were +2.5. This time, of course, the Vols are -10.5 and counting.

The season total currently stands at 8.65 wins. We’re one more away from the best regular season in 15 years becoming the expectation. We’re one more away from a lot of things.

One year ago this week, the Vols lost to Florida 38-14. Josh Heupel called the game’s aftermath a turning point for his program. For all the attention to what happened to Florida after that win and its subsequent coaching change, the biggest x-factor remains Tennessee. The Vols blew out Missouri the very next week, and we’ve been moving forward ever since. As good as we can, as fast as we can has brought us here.

Here is good. Greatness awaits.

Lose, and it’ll hurt real bad. We don’t know what it’s like to fall to these guys as a 10-point favorite.

And win, and it’ll feel really great. Like really, really great. And not even in the context of as great as we remember from way back whenever. Great, because this whole thing will keep moving forward. And the story of Tennessee-Florida, and Tennessee in general, will be less about the past, and more about the present. About today.

Because today is good. And man, tomorrow could be great.

Go Vols.

The journey from our community so far:

• 8.03 expected regular season wins in the preseason
• 7.93 after Ball State
• 8.54 after Pitt

How are we feeling as the Gators come calling?

Checker Neyland, College Gameday, and our second-highest ranking of the last 15 years.

Might as well lean all the way in.

There is no other way to do it against these guys, and we’ll do it this time as a 10-point favorite. As you can see:

It’s the biggest favorite Tennessee has ever been against Florida in 32 seasons of playing annually.

The old record is -5.5 from 20 years ago. And we lost that day, painfully and inexplicably, because that’s the way this one has gone in the past. It rained something awful and we fumbled four times in five minutes. But the more painful outcome was the lost opportunity we told ourselves was there, with Steve Spurrier out and Ron Zook in. A chance for Tennessee to assert themselves in the rivalry.

Those hurt the most, the ones where you’re most sure it’s going to go differently. Live long enough on this side in this rivalry, and you’ve hurt all the hurts. Lose on Saturday, we’ll hurt it again, only as a 10-point favorite for the first time.

But if you think the response to being the biggest favorite we’ve ever been against these guys is to shrivel up, sell your tickets.

All due respect to history and your feelings, but let’s beat these guys by a thousand.

Last night Neyland Stadium was sold out for just the third time since 2016, and the fourth time since we beat these guys six years ago. It got there for Florida and Alabama in 2016, Georgia in 2017, then Ole Miss last year.

Here’s a list of games that weren’t sold out between 2010 and now:

• 2010 Oregon
• 2011 LSU
• 2016 Appalachian State
• 2018 Florida
• 2019 BYU
• 2021 Georgia

And those are just the big ones. Tennessee announced 82,203 against Pitt in 2021, and sold out Akron in 2022.

Optimism and buy-in aren’t things you have to wait for on the other side of something on Saturday. They are present and accounted for. We’ve come a long way in a short time, and the only way you do that is, appropriately, as fast as you can.

That’s how you play Florida this week. Nevermind back, and nevermind what a win would mean for the next five years of this rivalry. We want what a win would mean for Tennessee right now. Because this group has given right now a chance to matter. And that’s all you can ask for.

Vols by a thousand.

Enjoy your week.

Thanks to all who submitted an entry in our Expected Win Total Machine this week – if you’re new to our site, we run it each Monday during the season. This week, our community projects the Vols to win 8.54 regular season games. That’s up from 8.03 in the preseason and 7.93 after Ball State.

A few things I found interesting about the conversation this week:

Which is more likely, 8-4 or 9-3?

Again, the conversation here is tying the best regular season of the last 15 years, or besting it. Good company either way. As is the case with much of the verbiage this week, beating Pitt accomplishes some things, but not all things. Beating Florida will accomplish more.

This week, we’re split down the middle on those two outcomes. 9-3 gets an ever-so-slight edge for now. But these projections can look a lot different in just a few weeks; so much of the conversation with Tennessee is about the schedule.

Fans view Florida, LSU, and Kentucky almost exactly the same

All due respect to the Akron Zips, who are somewhere between 47 and 50-point underdogs coming in tomorrow night. For context, the Vols were somewhere between 24.5 and 27-point favorites against Georgia State in 2019, Wyoming in 2008, and Memphis in 1996. This is twice-as-bad territory. Players and coaches don’t want the lookahead, and that’s great. I think we’ll be okay.

Beyond Akron, the Vols have a telling stretch, but with some key space between: Florida, bye week, at LSU, Alabama, Tennessee-Martin, then Kentucky. Georgia’s next, of course. But if you want the big goals, I’d start with having a chance to take the lead in the SEC East when we go to Athens, instead of, “Can we beat Georgia?!”

To get to Athens with first place on the line, the Vols can go through Florida, LSU, and Kentucky. Do that, and it doesn’t matter if you beat Alabama or not. Again, this is the long game, and how we view it will change some between now and then.

For now, Tennessee fans view those three games – Florida, LSU, and Kentucky – almost exactly the same way:

• Florida: 60.4% chance of victory
• at LSU: 58.1%
• Kentucky: 59.2%

Whatever we may say about the Kentucky series out loud, credit the Wildcats for earning enough respect – even without a handful of head-to-head wins over UT – to be considered in the same way the Gators and Tigers are. Put those three together, and fans give the Vols 1.78 wins in those three games. Go 2-1 in that stretch, and 9-3 starts looking like the favorite.

Tennessee’s Schedule = Opportunity in the National Conversation

Over at ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, the Vols have the eighth best odds to make the College Football Playoff. Again, this is far more than a reflection of beating Pitt at overtime. If you’re looking for who can build the best resume, you start with teams who might be good who also play both Alabama and Georgia.

Even an 11-1 Tennessee would have a very compelling playoff argument. But, by our own admissions, we’re nowhere near that conversation yet. We’ve got the Vols at 8.5 wins at the moment. 9-3 would remain new territory for this program in the last 15 years. One thing, one win at a time.

Bowl projections work in similar fashion. When you see Tennessee projected to go to the Sugar Bowl, that’s exclusively an outcome tied to both Georgia and Alabama making the playoff. If they do, great! That means the third-best SEC team is going to New Orleans, and with Texas A&M out of that conversation for now, the Vols are certainly in it. So is Arkansas, and Ole Miss. And a handful of teams the Vols will see head-to-head.

Again: we’re at 8.5 wins this week. Stay tuned.

One difference I’m finding with this team in the national conversation: the last time the Vols entered this dialogue was 2016, and we had a whole year worth of, “We’re good!” in our sails. The 2016 team was built on being very close to very good in 2015: close losses to playoff teams, etc. We had a whole year of belief built on what that team almost was, which paid off for around six weeks in 2016 before things fell apart.

The 2022 Vols look even better on paper, in a world where “on paper” = “an excel spreadsheet.”

https://twitter.com/cfbNate/status/1570391847603675136

The Vols are also at eighth on that list, loved fairly equally by each of those models. Play-for-play, the 2022 Vols continue to perform at the highest level we’ve seen in Knoxville in the last 15 years. But so far those plays have only added up to a win over Pittsburgh. Again, there can be much more down this path very soon.

These are exciting days around here, and still quite rare among the last 15 years. The opponent next week will get all the focus, regardless of records and projections. Beat Florida, and so much more will open up for the Vols.

But even from here, the long game looks good. It’s not Sugar Bowl! Playoffs! SEC East Champs! yet. But it’s still on track to have a chance to be one of the best seasons we’ve seen around here in a long time.

Big things are coming, and coming soon.

Go Vols.

One of the benefits of being a Top 15 team: pointing out weaknesses in victory! How have your conversations about the Pitt game started the last couple of days? Something like, “Great win…we’ve got some work to do!”? Me too! Josh Heupel’s Monday press conference began that way as well.

Given the Vols are now merely 48.5-point favorites against Akron this week…I’m not sure how much we’re going to learn between now and the Gators. So: to the past!

Where do the questions start with Tennessee? Specific to the Pitt game, I was most curious about the running backs: not even their lack of production as much as their lack of opportunity.

Jabari Small had 10 carries for 17 yards, Jaylen Wright nine for 47. That’s 19 carries for running backs in a game that included overtime. Seems like not a lot!

But if you go back through Josh Heupel’s now 15-game tenure at Tennessee, you find that this kind of performance seems opponent-specific.

Running Back Carries as a Percentage of Total Plays, 2021-22

Year	Game	RB Carries	Total Plays	Pct.
2021	Georgia	17	84	20.2%
2022	at Pitt	19	77	24.7%
2021	at Alabama	14	55	25.5%
2021	at Kentucky	12	47	25.5%
2021	Pitt	19	66	28.8%
2021	at Florida	22	68	32.4%
2021	Ole Miss	26	79	32.9%
2021	South Carolina	28	72	38.9%
2021	vs Purdue	43	105	41.0%
2021	Tennessee Tech	34	79	43.0%
2021	South Alabama	34	72	47.2%
2022	Ball State	43	86	50.0%
2021	Vanderbilt	30	60	50.0%
2021	at Missouri	42	78	53.8%
2021	Bowling Green	50	88	56.8%

No surprise, you’ve got Georgia and Alabama near the top of the list, both in the talent department and in the playing-from-behind department. At Kentucky last year, the Vols only ran 47 total plays, making it easy for the percentages to get skewed.

But Pitt shows up both years as well.

So this is a question we’ll be curious to see the answer to in two weeks: did the Vols proactively choose to throw it more against what we perceived to be a good Pitt front, or will this group struggle to run the football against the non-Ball States of the world?

Last season the Vols were 34th nationally in yards per carry at 4.90. The 2.60 yards per carry Tennessee got at Pitt trails only Alabama and Georgia in Heupel’s offense at UT. But a big factor in those numbers is Hendon Hooker: both his productivity as a runner, and the high sack rate the Vols suffered last season.

At Pitt, Hooker was sacked on 6.67% of his passing attempts. That’s not great, but it’s an improvement over the 10.88% he went down on passes vs FBS foes last season. Those three sacks are included in the 15 rushing attempts Hooker was credited with Saturday, some/many of them escaping pressure leading to just 27 yards.

Hooker ran for 49 yards on nine carries when he came into the Pitt game last year. After that, it was fairly easy to see a pattern develop in 2021: when Hooker averaged at least three yards per carry, the Vols went 6-1 (Ole Miss being the loss). But in the other losses Hooker started:

• at Florida: 13 carries, 23 yards, 1.77 ypc
• at Alabama: 13 carries, 27 yards, 2.08 ypc
• Georgia: 17 carries, 7 yards, 0.41 ypc
• vs Purdue: 19 carries, 52 yards, 2.74 ypc

Get to the quarterback, and you beat Tennessee last year.

But this time, through some combination of proactive play-calling and getting sacked slightly less, the Vols still struggled to produce rushing yardage, but found less of their offensive fate tied to it.

Again, it’s gonna take two weeks to get an answer to this, at least. No guarantees we’re going to find more success against Alabama or Georgia; the Vols opened Saturday with only one RB carry in the first nine snaps and two in the first 13. Will Tennessee continue to attack through the air to help the running game find opportunities? Or was this something more specific to Pitt and/or really good run defenses?

And, of course, do the Gators qualify? Special teams miscues ruined Kentucky’s rushing stats in The Swamp, but Utah ran for 230 yards at 5.90 per carry.

I’ll be curious to see how often the Vols go to their backs against the Gators; I think that will tell us a lot about how this team views its own offensive efficiency going forward.

The Vols are 2-0, Josh Heupel has his second ranked win, and we’re off and running in the Top 15.

Here’s our Expected Win Total Machine for this week. Will the community total climb to 8.5 or higher? That’s up to you!

The Vols are #15 in the AP Poll this week, a welcome sight after spending most of the last 15 years away. For context, Tennessee finished in the Top 15 16 times in 23 years from 1985-2007, last appearing at #12 in the final poll in ’07.

Tennessee Top 15 Finishes, 1985-2007

• 1st: 1998
• 3rd: 1995
• 4th: 1985, 2001
• 5th: 1989
• 7th: 1997
• 8th: 1990
• 9th: 1996, 1999
• 12th: 1992, 1993, 2007
• 13th: 2004
• 14th: 1987, 1991
• 15th: 2003

The Vols were #18 in the 2008 preseason poll, fell out immediately, and didn’t return at all until one week in 2012. Our 2015 appearance lasted two weeks before sliding back in at #22 in the final poll.

But for the Top 15, you’ve gotta go to 2016, where Tennessee appeared in the preseason poll and five other weeks. And in the covid polls of 2020, the Vols made two Top 15 appearances, both of which came before all teams had begun play.

So that’s eight weeks in 15 years…plus right now.

Let’s see if we can stick around a minute, yeah?

Including whew, but also, woo!

We did, “Oh no, are we bad again?”. Tennessee’s first three drives went three-and-out, three-and-out, and turnover on downs. Pitt led 10-0 and had 1st-and-10 at the Tennessee 21. That possession ended with Trevon Flowers’ end zone interception, the first of a bananas number of turnaways from Tennessee’s defense.

On the day, the Vol defense kept Pittsburgh out of the end zone from:

• 1st & 10 at the 15 (FG)
• 1st & 10 at the 21 (INT)
• 4th & 3 at the 27 (sack)
• 3rd & 3 at the 28 (FG miss)
• 1st & 10 at the 19 (FG miss)
• 1st & Goal at the 5 (FG)
• 1st & Goal at the 10 (OT end of game)

Flowers may have made the game’s two biggest plays, an impressive bounce-back sandwiching them between Pitt’s impressive hurdle TD and the muffed punt. But Flowers’ interception gave the Vols life early, and his overtime sack took it from the Panthers late. In between, Tennessee scored touchdowns on three straight offensive possessions to take a 21-17 lead, then got three more as the first half expired.

So then, there was premature elation: “We’re good!” We wrote this week on how the numbers next to the names reminded us of Tennessee’s early season games against Florida in 2012 and Oklahoma in 2015. Each of those games had false positives, moments when we thought we’d made it. And in the third quarter, with Kedon Slovis out of the game, we were close.

The Vols took over at the Pitt 48 with 7:12 to play in the third quarter. But a false start penalty led to a punt, which was blocked. When Pitt missed their ensuing field goal, the Vols fumbled it back to them. And after Chase McGrath nailed a clutch 51-yard field goal, the defense got another stop, but Flowers fumbled the punt.

All told, the Vols had six straight drives with a chance to take a two-possession lead, then the fumbled punt. And when those chances all failed to stretch the lead beyond a touchdown, there were all kinds of other emotions running through us, all of them familiar too. Pitt’s backup quarterback – a phrase that still inspires our darkest ghosts from 21 years ago – fired a fourth down touchdown pass to get the game to overtime.

But then, other emotions emerged. Older and less familiar, for sure.

But we’re very happy to see them. To feel them.

Hendon Hooker – 27-of-42 for 325 and two scores – was patient. He found his guy Cedric Tillman, who wrapped his day with catch #9 and yards totaling 162. I wanted to write, “His most yards since…”, but then we forget this dude had 10 for 200 against Georgia. Tennessee’s offense made the play it needed to make, the one it missed against Pitt last year, or Ole Miss, or Purdue, or even Kentucky.

And then Tennessee’s defense – which made the stops it needed to make late in all those games last year – made one more today. Pitt converted their first fourth down in overtime. But Flowers’ sack on third down made sure the next would be a much different animal.

And after all that, Tennessee wins.

Here’s a list of the highest-ranked teams the Vols have beaten in the last 15 years:

• #11 South Carolina 2013
• #12 Northwestern 2015
• #12 Kentucky 2018
• #17 Pittsburgh today

Oh yes, we’ll take it. It is Josh Heupel’s second ranked win, and…

AP Poll ROAD Wins Over Top-20 Teams Last Six @Vol_Football Coaches @coachjoshheupel – 2 (now in yr 2)
J. Pruitt – 0 (3 years)
B. Jones – 0* (5 years)
L. Kiffin – 0 (1 year)
P. Fulmer – 13 (17 years)
J. Majors – 6 (16 years)

* – UGA ranked 25 in AP & 20 in Coaches in ‘16

— Bill Martin (@Bill_Martin) September 11, 2022

https://twitter.com/Bill_Martin/status/1568758893089636352

And yep, we’ll take Akron next, thank you very much. The win total machine will be here on Monday morning; we can worry about Florida or Kentucky or whomever you’d like then.

For tonight, we don’t just take this one. We celebrate it. Tennessee ran through most of its emotions from the last 15 years, and most of those most aren’t much fun. But winning? Winning is fun.

Let’s do more of that.

Go Vols.

It’s #17 Pittsburgh vs #24 Tennessee, and I find myself elated to see that number next to our name.

In 2006 and 2007, the Vols played a total of ten ranked vs ranked games. In the fifteen years since, Saturday will make just our ninth such occasion. The other eight include:

• One game in year three for Derek Dooley
• One game in year three for Butch Jones
• Four straight games in year four for Butch Jones
• One game in year five for Butch Jones
• One game in year three for Jeremy Pruitt

And, as is in the nature of being ranked #24: win this one, and more will be on the way very soon.

“Soon” is the right word for this moment: soon, as in we’re here in year two. Soon, as in we’re here after being more vulnerable as a program than ever just 20+ months ago.

And soon, as in it feels like an even bigger opportunity is waiting on the other side of this one.

Of all those other ranked contests, the closest comparisons are the first two. In September 2012, the Vols returned to the Top 25 for the first time since the preseason poll in 2008. #23 Tennessee hosted #18 Florida. We lasted one week in the poll then, falling out for another three years until the preseason poll in 2015. In week two of that season, #23 Tennessee hosted #19 Oklahoma.

In both of those games, there were genuine, “Are we back?” moments. Midway through the third quarter against Florida, A.J. Johnson went beast mode and scored to give the Vols a 20-14 lead, then the Vols stopped a fake punt. We were close…then Florida scored 24 points in the game’s final 18 minutes.

I still think about halftime of the Oklahoma game. Maybe you do too. The Vols led 17-3 and were set to receive the second half kickoff. During that 20-minute break, the assumption was we were there. We were back.

And then, of course, we weren’t.

I don’t think “back” is on the table tomorrow, even though the rankings are similar. Some of it is Pitt’s name recognition, and some of it is the Gators in two weeks. But in the years that have followed those losses to Florida and Oklahoma, we’ve spent a lot of time talking about the value of moving forward.

And Tennessee is doing that much faster than we anticipated.

The numbers beside the names are similar, but this time the Vols are a touchdown favorite. On the road. Whatever your beliefs about the strengths and weaknesses of the Dooley and Butch teams, Josh Heupel’s groups have excelled snap-for-snap. Tennessee’s highest ranking in the 18-season history of SP+ is right now.

Last week in our expected win total machine, the Vols checked in at 8.03 projected wins. This week, that number is down to 7.93. But it’s not a reflection of how we feel about Pitt: Tennessee fans give the Vols a 63.5% chance to win on Saturday. That’s up slightly from 61.9% in preseason. The biggest change came not from Florida (59.5% to 52%), but Georgia, where fans moved Tennessee’s chances from 22.6% to 11.2%.

But neither of those are problems we have to solve today.

This weekend is an opportunity. And for all its connections to the past, going all the way back to Coach Majors, it is at its heart an opportunity to move forward to the future. Very much like the South Carolina game last year, this opportunity sets up the next one. Tennessee has done the work, ahead of schedule, to arrive back in the national conversation. To stay there, where other Tennessee teams have fallen off immediately, requires victory.

And here too, more than in the past, victory is becoming the expectation.

Go Vols.

A year ago, we left the Pitt game wondering if the Vols would continue to unleash their tight ends in Josh Heupel’s offense. It turned out to be a false positive: Princeton Fant and Jacob Warren combined for nine catches against the Panthers, but ended the season with just 34, giving them more than a quarter of their season total in one game.

Those numbers were more in line from what we’ve seen in the past, both from Tennessee and from Heupel at UCF:

• Tennessee Pass Distribution 2010-20: 63% WR, 23% RB, 14% TE
• UCF Pass Distribution 2018-20: 76% WR, 18% RB, 6% TE

The flip last season ended up being from running backs to tight ends:

• Tennessee Pass Distribution 2021: 77% WR, 15% TE, 8% RB

Tennessee’s backs caught just 20 total passes last season, a jarring number considering Eric Gray caught 30 alone in nine games the year before. It’s one week in a 49-point win, but against Ball State 25 of UT’s 27 receptions went to wide receivers. The seven players to get multiple catches were all receivers.

So one big question: are we going to see the tight ends get involved against the Pitt defense again?

If so, it’ll probably come in a different fashion. Last year against the Panthers, 15 of Tennessee’s 22 receptions went to tight ends and running backs. The Vols used Princeton Fant early to get Joe Milton going. Then the Vols attacked deep downfield, as you’ll recall, to no avail. Then Hendon Hooker used both Fant and Jacob Warren in late drives to give the Vols a chance to win.

These are two curiosities for me with this high-octane offense: will the Vols utilize the tight ends and running backs more, and if not, will they stick with a larger rotation at wide receiver? We saw Walker Merrill, Ramel Keyton, and Squirrel White all get in with the ones against Ball State. How deep will that pool be against Pitt?

Last week at Pitt, West Virginia receiver Bryce Ford-Wheaton had nine catches for 97 yards and two TDs, the brightest spot in a passing game that struggled to be explosive on a consistent basis (5.4 yards per attempt). He and WR Sam James were the only players to catch more than two passes. Last year Pitt’s defense was vulnerable to efficient quarterback play, with Western Michigan, Miami, and Virginia all having significant success against them.

All that to say: I assume Hendon Hooker will continue to be an efficient passer. Will we see guys running wide open downfield against Pitt again? If so, great! If not, how will Heupel and these guys draw it up – and will that once again include tight ends and backs that don’t usually get involved?