Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Looking back on the Vols’ 2017 coaching candidates

This past summer, after Jeremy Pruitt had his first full season as Tennessee’s head coach under his belt, we looked back on the long list of Vols’ coaching candidates to see how they did in 2018 relative to Pruitt. Now that Pruitt has turned a 1-4 beginning in 2019 into a 4-1 hot streak, we thought we’d use the second bye week of the season to take another peek.

This is a long post. The details of each candidate’s updates are below, but I’ve included my own re-ranking both here at the top and at the bottom for the sake of convenience and in the interest of fighting back against carpal tunnel.

Here’s my re-ranking as of right now:

Good bets

  1. Dan Mullen
  2. Jeremy Pruitt
  3. Jimbo Fisher
  4. Gary Patterson
  5. Matt Campbell
  6. Justin Fuente
  7. Mike Norvell
  8. Mike Leach
  9. Les Miles
  10. P.J. Fleck
  11. Joe Moorhead
  12. Jeff Brohm

Calculated risks

  1. Lane Kiffin
  2. Chip Kelly
  3. Jon Gruden
  4. Charlie Strong
  5. Scott Frost
  6. Mel Tucker
  7. Mike Bobo

Unknowns (as head coach)

  1. Brent Venables
  2. Kevin Steele
  3. Tee Martin

Goodness, what did we almost do?

  1. Chad Morris
  2. Willie Taggart
  3. Greg Schiano
  4. Bobby Petrino
  5. D.J. Durkin

Head coaches hired as head coaches

1. Dan Mullen

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Florida
  • Went 10-3 (5-3), tied for 2nd in the SEC East
  • Beat No. 23 Mississippi State, No. 5 LSU, and No. 7 Michigan
  • Only losses were to Kentucky, Missouri, and No. 7 Georgia

2019 so far

  • Currently 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East
  • Beat then No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
  • Lost to then No. 5 LSU 42-28 and No. 8 Georgia 24-17
  • Team is currently No. 11 in the CFP rankings
  • On pace to exceed GRT 2019 expectations

2. Jimbo Fisher

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Texas A&M
  • Went 9-4 (5-3), tied for 2nd in the SEC West, No. 16 in both polls
  • Beat No. 13 Kentucky, No. 7 LSU, a bunch of others; lost by only 2 to No. 2 Clemson

2019 so far

  • Currently 6-3 (3-2), 4th in the SEC West
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Lost to No. 1 Clemson 24-10, No. 8 Auburn 28-20, and No. 1 Alabama 47-28
  • Not ranked in the CFP rankings
  • On pace to meet or exceed GRT 2019 expectations

3. Willie Taggart

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Florida State
  • Went 5-7 (3-5), tied for 5th in the ACC Atlantic
  • Beat No. 20 Boston College, but lost to No. 20 Virginia Tech, No. 17 Miami, No. 2 Clemson, No. 21 NC State, No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 11, and unranked Syracuse.

2019

  • Fired mid-season after a 4-5 (3-4) start capped by a 27-10 loss to rival Miami

4. Jon Gruden

2018

  • Hired as head coach at the NFL’s Oakland Raiders
  • Went 4-12, beating only Cleveland (in OT), Arizona (by 2), Pittsburgh (by 3), and Denver

2019 so far

  • Currently 5-4, 2nd in the AFC West

5. Scott Frost

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Nebraska
  • Went 4-8 (3-6); Beat only Minnesota, Bethune-Cookman, Illinois, and Michigan State, all unranked

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-4), 6th in the Big Ten West
  • Only wins over South Alabama, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Northwestern
  • Currently on a three-game losing streak to then-unranked teams

Coordinators hired as head coaches

1A. Joe Moorhead

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Mississippi State
  • Went 8-5 (4-4), 4th in SEC West
  • Beat No. 8 Auburn, No. 16 Texas A&M, and others; finished No. 25 in the Coaches Poll

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West
  • Lost four of the past five games, with the lone win coming against an Arkansas team that just fired its Year 2 coach
  • Will fail to meet GRT 2019 expectations by at least two games

1B. Jeremy Pruitt

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Tennessee
  • Went 5-7 (2-6), last in the SEC East
  • Beat No. 21 Auburn and No. 11 Kentucky, but lost to No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Georgia, No. 17 West Virginia, and unranked Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt

2019 so far

  • Currently 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East
  • Won four of the last five games, with the one loss coming to No. 1 Alabama
  • Two bad losses to unranked teams to begin the season
  • Other three losses all to Top 10 teams
  • On pace to meet GRT 2019 expectations overall, to exceed expectations for the SEC

3. Chip Kelly

2018

  • Hired as head coach at UCLA
  • Went 3-9 (3-6), 5th in the Pac-12 South
  • Only wins were against California, Arizona, and USC, all unranked

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Pac 12 South
  • Started the season 1-5 (1-2)
  • Currently on a three-game win streak, which includes a win over No. 24 Arizona State

4. Chad Morris

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Arkansas
  • Went 2-10 (0-8), last in the SEC West
  • Only beat Eastern Illinois and Tulsa

2019 so far

  • Fired mid-season after a 2-8 (0-6) start, on the heels of a non-competitive seven-game losing streak

Candidates who got fired shortly after we were talking about hiring them

The next three guys not only didn’t get any offer compelling enough to move somewhere, they couldn’t even keep their existing jobs for one more season.

Greg Schiano

2018

  • Remained as defensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2018.
  • When Urban Meyer was suspended for three games, he handed the reins not to Schiano but to offensive coordinator Ryan Day.
  • The Buckeyes defense was not as good in 2018, and when Meyer retired at the end of the season, Day was made head coach. He did not retain Schiano after the season.
  • Schiano was hired as defensive coordinator for New England in February, 2019, but left after only a month.

2019 so far

  • Likely to return to Rutgers to take the open head coaching job

Bobby Petrino

2018

  • Remained at Louisville as head coach until he was fired in November
  • Team went 2-10 (0-8), last in ACC Atlantic
  • Only wins were against Indiana State and Western Kentucky

2019 so far

  • Back on the coaching carousel this November

D.J. Durkin

2018

In fall camp last year, a player died, and allegations of toxic culture under Durkin led to his suspension. He was later reinstated for a day and then fired.

2019 so far

Currently a consultant for the Atlanta Falcons.

Head coaches who stayed put

1. Mike Leach

2018

  • Basically hired by John Currie, who apparently did not have the authority to do so
  • Stayed at Washington State
  • Went 11-2 (7-2) and tied for first in the Pac-12 North
  • Beat No. 12 Oregon, No. 24 Stanford, but lost to No. 16 Washington. Beat No. 24 Iowa State in the Valero Alamo Bowl
  • Finished No. 10 in the AP and Coaches polls

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (1-5), 6th in the Pac 12 North
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Lost five of the last six games

2. Les Miles (former head coach, unemployed in both 2017 and 2018)

2018

  • Not hired by anyone until after the season.
  • Now head coach at Kansas for 2019

2019 so far

  • Currently 3-6 (1-5), 9th in the Big 12
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Lost five of the last six games, although this stretch includes a two-point loss to No. 15 Texas
  • Has Kansas much more competitive than in the past

3. Matt Campbell

2018

  • Remained at Iowa State as head coach
  • Went 8-5 (6-3), tied for 3rd in the Big 12
  • Beat No. 25 Oklahoma State, No. 6 West Virginia, and several others

2019 so far

  • Currently 5-4 (3-3), 4th in the Big 12
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Two one-point losses to No. 19 Iowa and No. 9 Oklahoma

4. Mike Norvell

2018

  • Remained at Memphis as head coach
  • Went 8-6 (5-3), tied for 1st in the American West
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 8-1 (4-1), 3rd in the American Athletic West
  • One win over a ranked team: 54-48 over No. 15 SMU
  • Currently No. 18 in the CFP rankings

5. Gary Patterson

2018

  • Stayed at TCU as head coach
  • Went 7-6 (4-5), tied for 5th in the Big 12
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-4), 7th in the Big 12
  • Beat No. 15 Texas, 37-27
  • Lost to No. 12 Baylor, 29-23 in 3OT
  • All losses but one (to Iowa State) were one-possession games

6. Charlie Strong

2018

  • Stayed at South Florida as head coach
  • Went 7-6 (3-5), 4th in American East
  • No wins against ranked teams, and lost last six games

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-3), 4th in the American Athletic East
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Only game against a ranked opponent resulted in a 49-0 loss to No. 19 Wisconsin
  • Two opportunities against No. 17 Cincinnati and No. 18 Memphis up next

7. P.J. Fleck

2018

  • Remained as head coach at Minnesota
  • Went 7-6 (3-6), tied for 5th in the Big 10 West
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 9-0 (6-0), 1st in the Big Ten West
  • One win over a ranked opponent, but it was a good one: 31-26 over No. 4 Penn State
  • Two more opportunities against ranked opponents to close out the season (No. 20 Iowa tomorrow and No. 14 Wisconsin on 11/30)

8. Justin Fuente

2018

  • Remained at Virginia Tech as head coach
  • Went 6-7 (4-4), tied for 3rd in ACC Coastal
  • Beat No. 19 Florida State, No. 22 Duke

2019 so far

  • Currently 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in the ACC Coastal
  • One win over a ranked team: 36-17 over No. 19 Wake Forest
  • One-point loss to No. 16 Notre Dame
  • Two other losses were one-possession to Boston College and a blowout loss to Duke

9. Jeff Brohm

2018

  • Remained at Purdue for his second season
  • Went 6-7 (5-4) and tied for second in the Big 10 West
  • Beat No. 2 Ohio State, No. 16 Iowa, and No. 23 Boston College, but lost to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Missouri, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Auburn, all unranked

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-6 (3-4), 5th in the Big Ten West
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • One-possession loss to No. 23 Iowa

10. Lane Kiffin

2018

  • Remained at Florida Atlantic as head coach
  • Went 5-7 (3-5), 5th in C-USA East
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 7-3 (5-1), 1st in Conference USA East
  • Two losses against No. 5 Ohio State and No. 18 UCF to start the season, then 7-1 the rest of the way

11. Mike Bobo

2018

  • Remained as head coach at Colorado State
  • Sidelined by health issues early, and team went 3-9 (2-6), 5th in MWC Mountain
  • Only wins were Arkansas, San Jose State, and New Mexico

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (3-2), 4th in Mountain West Mountain
  • No wins over (or losses to) ranked teams

Coordinators who stayed put (at the time)

1. Brent Venables

2018

  • Remained at Clemson as DC
  • 5th nationally, 2nd in the ACC in total defense last year

2019 so far

  • Still at Clemson as DC
  • 4th nationally, 1st in the ACC in total defense

2. Mel Tucker

2018

  • Remained at Georgia as DC. Hired as head coach at Colorado for 2019.
  • 13th nationally and 2nd in the SEC in total defense last year

2019 so far

  • First year as head coach at Colorado
  • Currently 4-6 (2-5), 6th in the Pac 12 South
  • Two wins over then-ranked teams: 34-31 OT over No. 25 Nebraska, 34-31 over then No. 24 Arizona State
  • 1-5 over the last six games
  • Colorado was 5-7 each of the past two seasons before Tucker arrived

3. Kevin Steele

2018

  • Remained at Auburn as defensive coordinator
  • 38th nationally and 8th in the SEC in total defense

2019 so far

  • Still at Auburn as DC
  • 28th nationally and 4th in the SEC in total defense

4. Tee Martin

2018

  • Remained at USC as OC; was released along with most of the staff in late November
  • 83rd nationally and 10th in the Pac-12 in total offense last season
  • Hired as a wide receivers coach at Tennessee

2019 so far

  • Still coaching wide receivers at Tennessee

Re-ranking the 2017 Tennessee coaching candidates

Based on all of that, here’s how I’d rank them as of right now:

Good bets

  1. Dan Mullen
  2. Jeremy Pruitt
  3. Jimbo Fisher
  4. Gary Patterson
  5. Matt Campbell
  6. Justin Fuente
  7. Mike Norvell
  8. Mike Leach
  9. Les Miles
  10. P.J. Fleck
  11. Joe Moorhead
  12. Jeff Brohm

Calculated risks

  1. Lane Kiffin
  2. Chip Kelly
  3. Jon Gruden
  4. Charlie Strong
  5. Scott Frost
  6. Mel Tucker
  7. Mike Bobo

Unknowns (as head coach)

  1. Brent Venables
  2. Kevin Steele
  3. Tee Martin

Goodness, what did we almost do?

  1. Chad Morris
  2. Willie Taggart
  3. Greg Schiano
  4. Bobby Petrino
  5. D.J. Durkin

Your turn

What about you? How would you rank those guys now?

SPM picks: Week 12

Tennessee’s off again this week, so I figured we’d use this spot for an SPM update and its favorite picks for the week.

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

This week, the SPM went 25-23 (52.08%) overall. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 12-5 (70.59%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was 7-2 (77.78%).

For the season, the SPM is now 277-257 (51.87%) overall, 121-89 (57.62%) over the confidence threshold, and 70-37 (65.42%) in the confidence range.

SP+ finished last week at 26-22 (54.17%) and is still 55% on the season. Our SPM has had its legs for over a month now, but it still hasn’t caught up to SP+ for the season.

SPM favorite picks this week

Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:

What do y’all think?

College Football TV Schedule: Week 12

The Vols are off this week, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing for Tennessee fans to watch. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Western Michigan Ohio 7:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football
Eastern Michigan Akron 8:00 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football

Do you care about certain geographical areas of Michigan and/or cities in Ohio? No? Do you like a little football better than no football? Yes? Okay, then.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Bowling Green Miami (OH) 8:00 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football
Northern Illinois Toledo 8:00 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football

Do the good people of Ohio not believe in football on Saturdays anymore?

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Buffalo Kent State 7:00 PM CBSSN Channel Hop It's football
North Carolina Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop It's football

Now that we’ve exhausted all of The Other Ohio state schools, we can get to some Power 5 teams. Well, two of them anyway.

Friday, November 15, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Louisiana Tech Marshall 7:00 PM CBSSN Channel Hop It's football
Fresno State San Diego State 9:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football

Never mind. But tomorrow’s Gameday!

Gameday, November 16, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#9 Penn State #2 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX Live Top 10 matchup
AFTERNOON
Texas A&M #4 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Former Vols opponent
East Tennessee State Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SEC ALTERNATE DVR / Check in Future Vols opponent
#19 Texas #13 Baylor 3:30 PM FS1 Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Tennessee Missouri 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols

Vols fans can get a look at Tennessee’s next opponent at noon on Saturday when the Missouri Tigers host the Florida Gators on CBS. Immediately following that one, No. 6 Georgia and No. 11 Auburn face off on the same channel, although Tennessee’s final opponent — Vanderbilt — is on at the same time on the SEC Network, so DVR that one for later reference.

The evening slot features No. 9 Oklahoma and No. 12 Baylor at 7:30 on ABC.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
11/12/19 Western Michigan Ohio 7:30 PM ESPN2
11/12/19 Eastern Michigan Akron 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/13/19 Bowling Green Miami (OH) 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/13/19 Northern Illinois Toledo 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/14/19 Buffalo Kent State 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/14/19 North Carolina Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ESPN
11/15/19 Louisiana Tech Marshall 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/15/19 Fresno State San Diego State 9:30 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 #3 Alabama Mississippi State 12:00 PM ESPN
11/16/19 Indiana #4 Penn State 12:00 PM ABC
11/16/19 #10 Florida Missouri 12:00 PM CBS
11/16/19 #13 Wisconsin Nebraska 12:00 PM BTN
11/16/19 Michigan State #14 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
11/16/19 Kansas #23 Oklahoma State 12:00 PM FS1
11/16/19 UMass Northwestern 12:00 PM BTN
11/16/19 TCU Texas Tech 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 VMI Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/16/19 Alabama State Florida State 12:00 PM ACCNX
11/16/19 Tulane Temple 12:00 PM ESPNU
11/16/19 UTEP UAB 1:00 PM ESPN3
11/16/19 #24 Navy #15 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
11/16/19 Idaho State BYU 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/16/19 Coastal Carolina Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 UL Monroe Georgia Southern 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 Troy Texas State 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/16/19 #1 Ohio State Rutgers 3:30 PM BTN
11/16/19 #19 Wake Forest #5 Clemson 3:30 PM ABC
11/16/19 #6 Georgia #11 Auburn 3:30 PM CBS
11/16/19 West Virginia #16 Kansas State 3:30 PM ESPN
11/16/19 #21 Memphis Houston 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 Central Michigan Ball State 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/16/19 Virginia Tech Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ACCNX
11/16/19 Kentucky Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SECN
11/16/19 Texas Iowa State 3:30 PM FS1
11/16/19 #17 Minnesota #18 Iowa 4:00 PM FOX
11/16/19 Syracuse Duke 4:00 PM ACCN
11/16/19 Incarnate Word New Mexico State 4:00 PM
11/16/19 Wyoming Utah State 4:00 PM ESPNU
11/16/19 Hawai'i UNLV 4:00 PM
11/16/19 Rice Middle Tennessee 4:30 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 Stanford Washington State 4:30 PM PAC12
11/16/19 Louisiana South Alabama 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 Southern Mississippi UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN+
11/16/19 #2 LSU Ole Miss 7:00 PM ESPN
11/16/19 #20 Cincinnati South Florida 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/16/19 Air Force Colorado State 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 #9 Oklahoma #12 Baylor 7:30 PM ABC
11/16/19 South Carolina Texas A&M 7:30 PM SECN
11/16/19 Louisville NC State 7:30 PM ACCN
11/16/19 Arizona State Oregon State 7:30 PM FS1
11/16/19 Appalachian State Georgia State 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/16/19 UCLA #8 Utah 8:00 PM FOX
11/16/19 New Mexico #22 Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2
11/16/19 Arizona #7 Oregon 10:30 PM ESPN
11/16/19 USC California 11:00 PM FS1

Read: All the best from the beautiful disaster at Kentucky

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Guarantano again rescues Vols out of the bullpen, via 247Sports
  2. Everything Jeremy Pruitt said after 17-13 win at Kentucky, via 247Sports
  3. Daniel Bituli beaming with pride after willing Vols to win, via 247Sports
  4. Vols report card: Kentucky, via 247Sports
  5. Game Balls: Tennessee 17, Kentucky 13, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after Kentucky

Now on a four-game win streak, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Scoring Offense, Rushing Offense, Passes Had Intercepted, Red Zone Offense, Total Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing

Fell into the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, Rushing Offense

Scoring Offense and Rushing Offense have been flirting with the Bottom 30 for weeks, and they have now stepped over the ledge into darkness. First Downs Offense and Completion Percentage are still resisting the gravity of the abyss, for now. Basically, the win streak is nice, but everything except Passing Yards per Completion still needs to get better on offense.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passes Intercepted, 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense, Passing Yards Allowed

Needs attention: Same as last week — First Downs Defense, 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense, Tackles for Loss

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Passing Yards Allowed

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing

Any improvement here is probably due to playing a team that can’t or doesn’t throw the ball. But still, green is good on these things, and the green is growing.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Blocked Punts, Kickoff Return Defense, Punt Returns, Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Nothing’s in the Bottom 30 here, but Net Punting and Kickoff Returns are the areas that can be improved.

I wouldn’t get too concerned about the change in Blocked Kicks and Punts Allowed. When a difference of “1” can result in a drop to 43 and 84, it’s not worth getting worked up about.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Turnovers Gained

Needs attention: Turnovers Lost

Same story here as last week: Penalties can be improved, although you want to make sure you don’t do so at the cost of losing your aggression. And on turnovers, the defense is doing fine, but the offense is still too generous.

Vowel-deficient trdlgmsr wins Week 11 of the 2019 GRT Pick ‘Em, Wedflatrock re-takes season-lead

Congratulations to trdlgmsr, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 17-3 and 194 confidence points. For winning, we’re all pitching in and getting him or her some vowels. Go Vowels!

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 trdlgmsr 17-3 194 17-14**
1 tbone 16-4 194 24-14
3 keepontruckin 16-4 191 23-13
4 memphispete 16-4 185 23-13**
4 corn from a jar 16-4 185 23-17
6 rsbrooks25 15-5 183 15-9**
6 daetilus 16-4 183 30-17
8 TennVol95 in 3D! 16-4 178 24-14
9 Rossboro 13-7 173 27-0**
9 mmmjtx 14-6 173 27-17
9 doritoscowboy 14-6 173 0-0
12 PAVolFan 14-6 172 21-14**
12 ctull 14-6 172 20-17
12 Displaced_Vol_Fan 15-5 172 24-16
12 Wilk21 15-5 172 27-14
12 cnyvol 14-6 172 23-20
12 LuckyGuess 13-7 172 31-20
18 rollervol 15-5 171 24-23
19 hounddog3 14-6 170 20-16**
19 Jayyyy 13-7 170 24-14
19 GeorgeMonkey 12-8 170 24-21
19 Neil Neisner 15-5 170 420-32
23 wedflatrock 13-7 169 24-20**
23 Joel @ GRT 13-7 169 28-21
23 Orange On Orange 14-6 169 31-27
23 Anaconda 13-7 169 13-17
23 Jahiegel 13-7 169 21-22
28 UTSeven 13-7 168 33-25
29 claireb7tx 13-7 167 21-14**
29 birdjam 14-6 167 23-21
31 boro wvvol 14-6 166 31-21
32 PensacolaVolFan 13-7 165 20-10**
32 Harley 13-7 165 30-17
32 ga26engr 13-7 165 32-27
32 Phonies 14-6 165 30-31
32 Hjohn 13-7 165 30-31
37 joeb_1 13-7 164 27-24
38 mariettavol 12-8 163 29-19
39 Bulldog 85 13-7 162 30-21**
39 ChuckieTVol 13-7 162 31-20
39 Sam 13-7 162 31-20
39 jfarrar90 14-6 162 31-21
43 bluelite 13-7 161 10-9
44 dgibbs 14-6 159 27-24
45 alanmar 14-6 158 27-31
46 Crusher 12-8 157 35-17
47 Hixson Vol1 13-7 156 27-13**
47 Raven17 13-7 156 30-22
47 patmd 15-5 156 17-24
50 TennRebel 13-7 154 17-21**
50 DinnerJacket 13-7 154 24-28
52 ltvol99 12-8 151 28-24
53 C_hawkfan 12-8 150 17-20
54 ddayvolsfan 11-9 144 27-14
55 vols95 10-10 143 24-21
56 Timbuktu126 11-9 134 11-7
57 HUTCH 11-9 113 35-31
58 Will Shelton 0-20 112 0-0**
58 waitwhereami 0-20 112 0-0**
58 Knottfair 0-20 112 -
58 Aaron Birkholz 0-20 112 -
58 mmb61 0-20 112 -
58 UTVols18 0-20 112 -
58 Salty Seth 0-20 112 -
58 Teri28 0-20 112 -
58 tpi 0-20 112 -
58 aaron217 0-20 112 -
58 If you ain’t first you’re 0-20 112 -
58 tallahasseevol 0-20 112 -
58 waltsspac 0-20 112 -
58 Willewillm 0-20 112 -
58 Orange Swarm 0-20 112 -
58 Dmorton 0-20 112 -
58 RockyPopPicks 0-20 112 -
58 VillaVol 0-20 112 -
58 Jrstep 0-20 112 -
58 ed75 0-20 112 -
58 jeremy.waldroop 0-20 112 -
58 rockytopinKy 0-20 112 -
58 OriginalVol1814 0-20 112 -
58 BristVol 0-20 112 -
58 orange_devil87 0-20 112 -
58 VFL49er 0-20 112 -
58 ddutcher 0-20 112 -
58 BZACHARY 0-20 112 -
58 Caban Greys 0-20 112 -
58 cactusvol 0-20 112 -
58 Techboy 0-20 112 -
58 JLPasour 0-20 112 -

Wedflatrock re-takes the lead for the season with a record of 153-67 and 1812 confidence points.

Rank Player W-L % Points
1 wedflatrock 153-67 69.55 1812
2 birdjam 154-66 70.00 1811
3 PAVolFan 156-64 70.91 1810
4 GeorgeMonkey 152-68 69.09 1808
5 corn from a jar 152-68 69.09 1807
6 memphispete 155-65 70.45 1794
7 LuckyGuess 149-71 67.73 1783
8 joeb_1 146-74 66.36 1759
9 C_hawkfan 158-62 71.82 1756
10 Hixson Vol1 153-67 69.55 1753
11 jfarrar90 147-73 66.82 1750
12 Displaced_Vol_Fan 150-70 68.18 1749
13 hounddog3 149-71 67.73 1745
14 trdlgmsr 146-74 66.36 1740
15 cnyvol 151-69 68.64 1737
16 ChuckieTVol 152-68 69.09 1734
16 Orange On Orange 146-74 66.36 1734
18 Joel @ GRT 149-71 67.73 1733
19 Raven17 146-74 66.36 1732
20 alanmar 149-71 67.73 1727
21 boro wvvol 144-76 65.45 1724
22 UTSeven 137-83 62.27 1722
23 daetilus 141-79 64.09 1718
23 Harley 148-72 67.27 1718
23 TennRebel 144-76 65.45 1718
26 Phonies 146-74 66.36 1717
27 Anaconda 135-85 61.36 1712
28 DinnerJacket 146-74 66.36 1711
29 ga26engr 148-72 67.27 1695
30 Rossboro 141-79 64.09 1694
30 Bulldog 85 145-75 65.91 1694
32 mmmjtx 146-74 66.36 1687
33 keepontruckin 135-85 61.36 1681
34 waitwhereami 136-84 61.82 1676
35 Knottfair 132-88 60.00 1671
36 claireb7tx 142-78 64.55 1668
37 Sam 146-74 66.36 1666
38 mariettavol 131-89 59.55 1663
39 Crusher 143-77 65.00 1660
40 doritoscowboy 144-76 65.45 1649
41 Neil Neisner 141-79 64.09 1648
42 ctull 132-88 60.00 1639
42 ltvol99 151-69 68.64 1639
44 rsbrooks25 149-71 67.73 1634
45 Jahiegel 136-84 61.82 1633
46 ddayvolsfan 146-74 66.36 1630
47 Jayyyy 128-92 58.18 1626
48 tbone 138-82 62.73 1614
49 rollervol 140-80 63.64 1593
50 HUTCH 138-82 62.73 1590
51 bluelite 134-86 60.91 1571
52 Wilk21 133-87 60.45 1569
53 TennVol95 in 3D! 131-89 59.55 1568
53 jeremy.waldroop 108-112 49.09 1568
55 dgibbs 118-102 53.64 1561
56 Hjohn 127-93 57.73 1506
57 Timbuktu126 118-102 53.64 1493
58 patmd 131-89 59.55 1479
59 PensacolaVolFan 130-90 59.09 1475
60 vols95 96-124 43.64 1432
61 VillaVol 103-117 46.82 1407
62 rockytopinKy 95-125 43.18 1402
63 Orange Swarm 85-135 38.64 1387
64 Will Shelton 52-168 23.64 1274
65 OriginalVol1814 56-164 25.45 1272
66 aaron217 63-157 28.64 1267
67 BZACHARY 74-146 33.64 1264
68 tpi 54-166 24.55 1209
69 RockyPopPicks 33-187 15.00 1202
70 Willewillm 25-195 11.36 1115
71 Jrstep 34-186 15.45 1109
72 BristVol 26-194 11.82 1090
73 Dmorton 27-193 12.27 1087
74 Caban Greys 13-207 5.91 1077
75 tallahasseevol 14-206 6.36 1067
76 JLPasour 14-206 6.36 1065
76 orange_devil87 15-205 6.82 1065
76 If you ain�t first you�re 13-207 5.91 1065
79 Aaron Birkholz 13-207 5.91 1056
80 ed75 13-207 5.91 1052
81 Salty Seth 12-208 5.45 1042
82 Techboy 11-209 5.00 1041
83 waltsspac 11-209 5.00 1038
84 cactusvol 12-208 5.45 1032
85 VFL49er 4-216 1.82 981
86 Teri28 5-215 2.27 934
87 ddutcher 0-220 0.00 933
87 mmb61 0-220 0.00 933
87 UTVols18 0-220 0.00 933

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: With two games to go

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

My assessment

About the Vols: It was a terrible start for the good guys against Kentucky, but they eventually got it figured out. And it was a bit hairy in the end, but Guarantano got just enough points and the defense got just enough stops to put another W on the board. This bodes well for the team the rest of the way.

About the remaining opponents: Florida made Vandy look even worse, and Georgia appeared to do the same thing against Missouri, although the Tigers were missing Kelly Bryant at quarterback and their leading receiver. I’m still reserving judgment on Missouri for now because of that.

A slight bump for the Vols, Vandy looks worse, Missouri who knows? I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.9 6.4 (thanks to Will, who pointed out on the podcast that that 5.9 wasn’t right. Lazy cut and paste job.) Same as last week. If things change for the better (for the Vols) with Missouri, that number will jump. A win against the Tigers will not only change that number from 60 to 100, it may result in me increasing my Vandy number up from 80. Basically, beat Missouri in two weeks, and I’ll be back to over my preseason expectations, and feeling better about rounding up to boot.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6
  • After Week 10: 5.9
  • After Week 11: 5.9 6.4

Details: I kept Missouri at 60% and dropped Vanderbilt to 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

This one’s going to depend on whether Kelly Bryant plays. Without him (and leading receiver Johnathon Johnson) this week against Georgia, they scored zero points. Two different quarterbacks managed only 148 yards passing, and the team added only 50 yards on the ground.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-7 (1-5), 7th in the SEC East

Yikes, Vandy. A total of 77 yards passing and 51 yards rushing. They gave up 410 yards passing and 150 rushing.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

BYU Cougars

Current record: 5-4

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 5-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 1st in the SEC East

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West

Off this week.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 2nd in the SEC West

This week’s Alabama-LSU game was great fun. LSU looked really, really good, although Alabama wasn’t really the same team with a hobbled Tua at quarterback. The rest of the team, too, just looked discombobulated, which was really uncharacteristic for the Tide.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-6 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East

The SPM saw this one coming, but I didn’t really believe it until App. State was up late. The game was pretty even, but the Mountaineers scored a valuable touchdown via pick six, and South Carolina missed a wide open receiver in the end zone late, which would have put them ahead.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in C-USA West

That’s right. UAB scored 2 points this week against Southern Miss.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-5 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Jayyyy re-takes the lead in the GRT Guessing Game

Here’s the play-by-play for this week’s Guessing Game.

Week 11 – Kentucky

Round 1

Q: How many players take a snap at quarterback for the Vols? (30 – 40 points available)

A: 2 (30 points) (Brian Maurer started, Jarrett Guarantano took over. Jauan Jennings threw a pass, but on a trick play — he didn’t take a snap, if I recall correctly.)

These folks got this right: jfarrar90, cscott95, Isaac Bishop, PaulS, LTVol99

Mushrooms (10 points): Isaac Bishop and Brenna Russell

Bananas (-10 points): cscott95 and Brenna Russell

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell No. 9: Counter 1
  • No new blue shells or bolts

Top 10 after Round 1:

  1. jfarrar90
  2. Jayyyy
  3. Will Shelton
  4. cscott95
  5. Harley
  6. Isaac Bishop
  7. Brenna Russell
  8. PaulS
  9. Mitchell K
  10. daetilus

Round 2

Q: Does the Tennessee offense run more often or pass more often? (30 – 100 points available)

A: The Vols run more running plays than passing plays (30 points) (21 runnings plays to 14 passing plays)

A bunch of folks get this right: Jayyyy, Will Shelton, cscott95, Isaac Bishop, Brenna Russell, PaulS, Mitchell K, LTVol99, HixsonVol, Joel Hollingsworth, Clark

Mushrooms (10 points): jfarrar90 and Brenna Russell

Bananas (-10 points): jfarrar90 and Mitchell K

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell No. 9 blows up and costs current leader jfarrar90 30 points
  • Joel draws a bolt and gets 30 points
  • No new blue shells

Top 10 after Round 2:

  1. Jayyyy
  2. Will Shelton
  3. cscott95
  4. jfarrar90
  5. Isaac Bishop
  6. Harley
  7. Brenna Russell
  8. PaulS
  9. Mitchell K
  10. daetilus

Round 3

Q: Do the Vols hold Kentucky’s rushing offense to under its average of 201.2 rushing yards per game?

A: No. But Go Vols anyway. (30 points) (Kentucky had 302 rushing yards) (FYI, they had 25 passing yards. Wow.)

These guys got this: Only HixsonVol gets this one right.

Mushrooms (10 points): cscott95 and Sam Hensley

Bananas (-10 points): jfarrar90 and Joel Hollingsworth

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • New Blue Shell No. 10: Counter 3
  • No new bolts

Final Standings After Week 11:

Rank Player Points
1 Jayyyy 321
2 cscott95 318
3 Will Shelton 314
4 jfarrar90 283
5 Isaac Bishop 274
6 Harley 268
7 Brenna Russell 255
8 PaulS 245
9 Mitchell K 225
10 Sam Hensley 190
11 daetilus 185
12 LTVol99 183
13 HixsonVol 160
14 Joel Hollingsworth 130
15 HixsonVol fka MariettaVol 74
16 Alyas Grey 63
17 Hounddog3 35
18 Greenback42c 30
19 Clark 30
20 Gavin Driskill 25
21 Power TBP 15
22 StiflerUncut -3