Tennessee’s off again this week, so I figured we’d use this spot for an SPM update and its favorite picks for the week.
The SPM’s performance so far in 2019
This week, the SPM went 25-23 (52.08%) overall. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 12-5 (70.59%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was 7-2 (77.78%).
For the season, the SPM is now 277-257 (51.87%) overall, 121-89 (57.62%) over the confidence threshold, and 70-37 (65.42%) in the confidence range.
SP+ finished last week at 26-22 (54.17%) and is still 55% on the season. Our SPM has had its legs for over a month now, but it still hasn’t caught up to SP+ for the season.
SPM favorite picks this week
Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:
| Away | Home | Favorite | Spread | SPM Favorite | SPM Spread | SPM Pick ATS |
| Georgia | Auburn | Georgia | -2.5 | Georgia | -11.7 | Georgia |
| USC | California | USC | -6.5 | California | -2.7 | California |
| LSU | Mississippi | LSU | -21 | LSU | -30.3 | LSU |
| Wyoming | Utah State | Utah State | -6 | Wyoming | -4 | Wyoming |
| Louisiana Tech | Marshall | Marshall | -2.5 | Louisiana Tech | -7.7 | Louisiana Tech |
| Navy | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | -9 | Navy | -1.3 | Navy |
| Troy | Texas State | Troy | -8 | Troy | -20.2 | Troy |
| Buffalo | Kent State | Buffalo | -6 | Buffalo | -19.4 | Buffalo |
What do y’all think?
I think if I’d been playing the confidence range this season…I’d be pretty pleased with the results 🙂
I don’t actually wager anything, but I do have some emotional investment in them. I get nervous every week and then happy most Sundays. That pattern holding after most of three years finally convinced me to go ahead and start posting some of the picks beforehand.