Happy Thanksgiving. We’re grateful for all y’all.

Tennessee opened as a 20-point favorite over the Commodores this week and started inching up from there. This Thanksgiving morning, it’s at -21.5. So . . . will the Vols cover against Vanderbilt Saturday night? Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say and whether I think it’s right this week.

Vols-Commodores

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9
• Vanderbilt scoring defense for the season: 32.1

The Vanderbilt scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 28.8
• Georgia State 35.9

Tennessee scored 30 points against Georgia State and 20 against Mississippi State. That’s 77% of what those teams usually give up, so the SPM estimates 24.7 points for the Vols against Vandy.

Vanderbilt’s points:

• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.7
• Vanderbilt scoring offense for the season: 17.1

The Vanderbilt scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• South Carolina 24.2
• Kentucky 24.6

Tennessee allowed only 13 points to Kentucky and 21 points to South Carolina, 70% of what those teams usually score. The SPM estimates 12 points for Vandy against the Vols.

Estimated score: Tennessee 24.7, Vanderbilt 12

From the perspective of Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s points:

• Vanderbilt scoring offense for the season: 17.1
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponent(s) (FBS only):

• LSU 23.5
• South Carolina 25

Against LSU, Vanderbilt scored 38 points against LSU but only 7 against South Carolina. Together, that’s 93% of what those teams usually allow. Estimated points for Vanderbilt against Tennessee: 21.1

Tennessee’s points:

• Vanderbilt scoring defense for the season: 32.1
• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponent(s):

• South Carolina 24.2
• Purdue 24.5

Purdue got 42 points against Vanderbilt, while South Carolina got its average of 24. Taken together, that’s 136% of what those guys usually get. The SPM estimates 32.5 points for the Vols against the ‘Dores.

Estimated score: Vanderbilt 21.1, Tennessee 32.5

Tennessee 28.6, Vanderbilt 16.5
Tennessee -12.1

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 28.6, Vanderbilt 16.5

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -12.1

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 7.9

This is not one of the SPM’s favorites this week, but it’s not far off, either.

Eyeball adjustments

I’m having trouble swallowing the estimate from Tennessee’s perspective of only 25 points for the Vols, based on the fact that Missouri’s defense is really good, Vanderbilt’s is not nearly as good, and Tennessee just put 24 on Missouri. The Vols got 120% of what the Tigers usually give up last week, and if they do that against Vandy, that would make it more like 39. I trust Tennessee’s points from Missouri’s perspective better (32.5), so let’s call it 33.

On Vandy’s points, there’s too big of a difference between what they got against LSU and what they got against South Carolina for me to totally trust the numbers from the ‘Dores’ perspective. It looks about right from the Vols’ perspective, although 12 feels maybe just a bit high to me based on just how terrible Vandy’s offense appears to be. For that reason, I’m going to knock it down to 10.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 10. The SPM doesn’t like the Vols to cover in this one, but I do.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 20-point favorites and it’s currently -21.5. With an over/under of 45.5, that translates to something like Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 12.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 35-16 (Vols -19), and gives the Vols an 87% chance of winning.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 91.2% chance of winning. For the record, FPI has been too low on the Vols the last two weeks.

Bottom line

The SPM doesn’t like the Vols to cover this week as either the opening 20-point favorite or today’s 21.5-point favorite. It’s not in the sweet spot for the machine, though, and after an eyeball adjustment, I like them to cover.

• Vegas: Tennessee, -21.5 (~Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 12)
• SP+: Tennessee 35, Vanderbilt 16 (doesn’t cover)
• SPM: Tennessee 29, Vanderbilt 17 (doesn’t cover)
• Me: Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 10 (covers)

What do y’all think?

After a stretch of five-of-six weeks well over 50%, the SPM has now been under .500 two weeks in a row and is trying to get its groove back. Last week, it went 25-29 (46.30%) overall, 9-10 (47.37%) over the confidence threshold, and 7-6 (53.85%) on its favorites.

For the season, the SPM is now 326-313 (51.02%) overall, 136-106 (56.20%) over the confidence threshold, and 80-48 (62.50%) for the favorites.

Meanwhile, SP+ crushed it again last week, going 32-22-4 (59%) overall. It’s sitting pretty at 55% for the season.

SPM favorite picks this week

Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:

What do y’all think?

The Tennessee Volunteers conclude the regular season this Saturday at 4:00 on the SEC Network, but it’s Rivalry Week, and there are great games all week long, especially on Saturday. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Here we go again with teams in Ohio playing football on non-Saturdays. I think they’re confused.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Rivalry Week cracks open Thanksgiving night with Mississippi-Mississippi State. Alexa, why do they call it the Egg Bowl?

Friday, November 29, 2019

There are a lot of games on TV this Black Friday, but most of them aren’t of much interest to Vols fans. So, if you don’t like those choices, just look for the oblong ball on your TV (or consult the entire schedule below) and find whatever floats your boat.

But notice that line of Orange, which is the Vols hoops team playing Florida State at 7:00 on CBS Sports Network. So be sure to catch that. It’s good to chase a little football with a little basketball.

Gameday, November 30, 2019

Wait, we’re on at the same time as the Iron Bowl? Bummer, as I would have liked to have seen that one live. But we’ll be busy trying to pack three years’ worth on revenge on the Commodores into 60 minutes at 4:00 on the SEC Network.

Depending on what happens with Vols hoops Friday night against Florida State, they’ll play again on Saturday either at 4:00 or at 7:00 and against either Purdue or VCU. If it’s on at 4:00, DVR it and watch it later. Hey, I love hoops, but if it comes down to game number 12 of 12 or game number six of 32, I’m going with 12 of 12. If it’s on at 7:00, then DVR that and catch up with it after the Vols-Vandy football game.

Warm up with Ohio State and Michigan at noon on Fox, although I feel the need to voice the opinion here that you can’t give it a name as presumptuous as The Game if it’s on at noon and on Fox. And what is up with Ohio State’s unnatural affection for the word “The” anyway?

There are also a couple of great options in the evening, so have at it.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

And hey, it’s Rivalry Week, so there’s chaos all around. Here’s where and when to find it your particular flavor:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Vanderbilt Commodores. Bottom line for this week: The Vols offense should have more of the same kind of success this week against Vandy that they had last week against Missouri, and the Tennessee defense should have its way with a struggling Commodores offense.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

Even with Tennessee’s season-long offensive numbers not being especially good, there do appear to be slight advantages in most places against Vandy’s defense. The biggest opportunity looks to be passing the ball, at least when you account for more than just yards. (“Passing Efficiency” is based on passing yards, completion percentage, TDs, and INTs.)

Where’s the danger?

Statistically speaking, it’s on 4th down, but that’s a spurious stat not to be overly concerned with. Something to actually be wary of is Tennessee’s Red Zone Offense versus Vandy’s Red Zone Defense. Things could get hairy there.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

The Missouri gameplan of Jarrett Guarantano throwing to Jauan Jennings, Marquez Callaway, and Josh Palmer should work nicely here and should result in more than 24 points to boot.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

Literally everywhere except tackles for loss. Tennessee’s advantage on defense isn’t just widespread and across the board, it’s deep. Vandy’s offense is TERRIBLE.

Where’s the danger?

Um . . . complacency?

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Remember the 38-13 loss to Vandy last year. And the 42-24 loss the year before that. And the 45-34 loss in 2016. Don’t get complacent, and right all of those wrongs in one game this weekend.

Special teams

The biggest opportunity here is probably with Callaway returning punts. I’d love to see him get another punt return TD in his final game at Neyland.

Turnovers and penalties

The teams are about the same as far as penalties go, and the turnovers appear to be a bit of a wash. Vandy doesn’t really turn the ball over, but they don’t really force turnovers, either. Don’t let that change this game.

Now on a four-game win streak, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Scoring Offense, Red Zone Offense, Rushing Offense, Total Offense, First Downs Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing, but 3rd Down Conversion Pct is knocking at the door.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, Rushing Offense

I know it’s hard to move the needle much with one game when you dump it into nearly a season’s worth of data, but I expected to see a bit more movement after that performance against Missouri. Still, there’s improvement on all of the things they’re doing well and kind of well. There’s just not a lot of improvement on the things that need it most. Credit Missouri’s defense for that?

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passes Intercepted, Passing Yards Allowed

Needs attention: There’s nothing in the Bottom 30 here, but Tackles for Loss is being wooed by the darkness. The things to focus on are that, First Downs Defense, Rushing Defense, and third down defense.

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing in the Bottom 30 last week.

Fell out of the Top 30: 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense. Not worried about this.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing, but that Tackles for Loss is worth keeping an eye on.

This whole thing is looking quite good with room still to grow. Step back and look at the whole chart and notice the general trend from more red and yellow to more green and yellow. Good sign.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Blocked Punts, Kickoff Return Defense, Punt Returns, Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Nothing’s in the Bottom 30 here, but several things are dangerously close: Blocked Punts Allowed, Net Punting, Blocked Kicks Allowed, and Kickoff Returns.

I said last week that I wasn’t concerned about the change in Blocked Kicks Allowed because the drop from 1 to 37 was caused by a single blocked kick, but maybe somebody should have been concerned. Two weeks ago, we were tied for 1st; now, we’re at 93. Oof.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Eh . . .

Needs attention: Turnovers Lost and Fumbles Recovered.

I’ll repeat this because I think it’s important: Penalties can be improved, but you don’t want to do so at the cost of losing your aggression. The team lost some ground on turnovers last week.