Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Tennessee opened as an 11.5-point favorite over the Gamecocks this week. The line has now moved to 12.5, with the over/under at 62.5. Hat Guy has opinions. These are those.

From Tennessee’s perspective

South Carolina’s defense is allowing an average of 26.5 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• UTSA 28
• Virginia 37.8

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• UTSA 45
• Virginia 49

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 143%

South Carolina’s offense is scoring an average of 28.8 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 27.8
• Virginia 20.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 29
• Virginia 13

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 87%

Estimated score: Tennessee 37.9, South Carolina 25

From South Carolina’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17.3 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• North Carolina 22
• Georgia 11.3

South Carolina’s points against those teams:

• North Carolina 17
• Georgia 14

South Carolina’s offensive premium/discount: 93%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 35 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• North Carolina 35.8
• Mississippi State 30.8

South Carolina’s defensive performance against those teams:

• North Carolina 31
• Mississippi State 30

South Carolina’s defensive premium/discount: 92%

Estimated score: South Carolina 16, Tennessee 32.2

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Home	Home Points	Away	Away Points	Favorite	Spread	Home RY	Away RY	Home PY	Away PY
Tennessee	35.1	South Carolina	20.5	Tennessee	-14.6	217.7	63.4	310.1	225.4

Hat Guy likes the Vols to cover (-14.6) and disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 3.1 points.

Guts and Eyeballs

How much is Neyland at night worth? Can the Tennessee defense rattle Rattler and keep him from getting into a hope-destroying groove? Legit questions, but without answers. The unknowns are real but cannot be quantified, so the numbers alone are the safest bet.

Other predictions from other systems

With an over/under of 62.5 and an opening line of Vols -11.5, Vegas is suggesting a score of something like Tennessee 37, South Carolina 25.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 37-23 (Vols -14).

Bottom line

• Vegas: Tennessee -11.5 (~Tennessee 37, South Carolina 25)
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -14.6 (Tennessee 35.1, South Carolina 20.5) (covers)
• SP+: Tennessee -14 (Tennessee 37, South Carolina 23) (covers)
• Hat Guy, with organic Guts and Eyeballs: same as Hat Guy

What do y’all think?

It’s Neyland at Night this Saturday at 7:30 p.m. as the Vols host the South Carolina Gamecocks on the SEC Network. The only serious competition for your attention is a Top 25 matchup between No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 17 (?!) Duke on ABC at the same time and No. 12 Alabama at Mississippi State on ESPN at 9:00 p.m.

On Friday night, there’s a Top 25 game between No. 10 Utah and No. 19 Oregon State that could be a nice appetizer for Gameday. Gameday then kicks off Saturday at noon with two games featuring future Vols opponents Texas A&M (vs Arkansas) and Kentucky (vs former opponent Florida.)

Saturday’s afternoon slate includes games between Georgia and Auburn (root for Auburn in this one in case the Vols lose another game between now and the day Georgia comes to Knoxville,) a Top 25 matchup between No. 3 Texas and No. 24 Kansas (!), future opponents Missouri and Vanderbilt in action against each other at 4:00, and No. 13 LSU at No. 20 Ole Miss at 6:00.

The No. 21 Vols have the prime time slot mostly to themselves at 7:30 on the SEC Network, with the aforementioned exceptions of Notre Dame/Duke and Alabama/Mississippi State.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Friday, September 29, 2023

Gameday, September 30, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over UTSA. There was, of course, some improvement in the numbers as a result of the victory, as the run game is about as good as it’s ever been under Heupel and the defense is elite at creating negative plays. There is still much room to improve, though, especially in the passing game on offense, penalties, and turnover margin.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

As expected after a relatively easy game, the offensive numbers improved a bit. The rushing offense is now not only better than last year’s season-long ranking of 26, but better than the prior year’s ranking of 11 as well. Also in the green are interceptions thrown and TFLs allowed. Total offense and scoring offense both improved significantly but still have some ground to make up.

In the red are most passing game numbers and down efficiencies.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

This 2023 defense makes its living in the opponent’s backfield. Overall, the unit is much-improved from a yards-allowed perspective and a bit better than last year on the scoreboard. They’re much better at defending the pass and on first down. They’re not bad at anything except maybe intercepting the ball, and they can still improve against the run and on third down.

Special Teams

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Not much to note here. Net punting has improved, but is still a long way from green.

Turnovers and Penalties

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Penalties improved after UTSA, which was much-needed for a team that has not yet found the Heuper-drive button. They could also dial up the turnover margin.

Tennessee opened as a 20-point favorite over the Roadrunners this week, and as of the time I write this, it is 21.5. What does Hat Guy have to say about that?

The Data

• Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 31.6667
• Tennessee’s Rushing Offense this year: 205.0000
• Tennessee’s Passing Offense this year: 242.3333
• UTSA’s Scoring Offense this year: 21.0000
• UTSA’s Rushing Offense this year: 162.3333
• UTSA’s Passing Offense this year: 220.6667
• Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 18.3333
• Tennessee’s Rushing Defense this year: 119
• Tennessee’s Passing Defense this year: 177.3
• UTSA’s Scoring Defense this year: 22.3333
• UTSA’s Rushing Defense this year: 128.7
• UTSA’s Passing Defense this year: 210.7

From the perspective of Tennessee

Vols’ offense

The UTSA scoring defense of 22.3333 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

• Florida 15.7
• Virginia 42.3

The Vols scored 16 points against Florida and 49 against Virginia, 112% of what those teams usually give up. Estimated points for Tennessee against UTSA: 25

The UTSA rushing defense of 128.7 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

• Florida 83.7
• Virginia 191

Tennessee ran for 100 against the Gators and 287 against the Cavaliers, 141% of what they usually allow. Estimated rushing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 181.5

The UTSA passing defense of 210.7 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

• Florida 172.7
• Virginia 260.7

Tennessee got 287 through the air against Florida and 212 against Virginia, 115% of their usual. Estimated passing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 242.3

Vols defense

The UTSA scoring offense of 21 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

• Virginia 20.7
• Florida 29.7

Tennessee gave up 13 to Virginia and 29 to Florida, 83% when combined. Estimated points for UTSA against Tennessee: 17.4

The UTSA rushing offense of 162.33 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

• Florida 174.3
• Virginia 68

The Vols gave up 183 on the ground to Florida and 95 to Virginia, 115% of their usual. Estimated rushing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 186.7

The UTSA passing offense of 220.67 is most similar to the following prior FBS Tennessee opponents:

• Florida 244
• Virginia 248.7

Florida passed for 166 against the Vols, and Virginia passed for 106, 55%. Estimated passing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 121.4

Estimated score: Tennessee 25, UTSA 17.4
Estimated rushing yards: Tennessee 181.5, UTSA 186.7
Estimated passing yards: Tennessee 242.3, UTSA 121.4

From the perspective of UTSA

UTSA offense

The Tennessee scoring defense of 18.3333 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Army 15.3
• Texas State 28.3

Against Army, UTSA scored 29 points against Army, 20 against Texas State, 112%. Estimated points for UTSA against Tennessee: 20.5

The Tennessee rushing defense of 119 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Army 117.3
• Texas State 128

UTSA ran for 121 yards against Army and 158 against Texas State, 114%. Estimated rushing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 135.7

The Tennessee passing defense of 177.3 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Army 175
• Texas State 304

UTSA passed for 239 yards against Army and 214 against Texas State, 95%. Estimated passing yards for UTSA against Tennessee: 168.4

UTSA defense

The Tennessee scoring offense of 31.6667 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Army 35.7
• Houston 23.7

Against Army, UTSA allowed 37 points. They gave up 17 to Houston. That’s 91%. Estimated points for Tennessee against UTSA: 28.8.

The Tennessee rushing offense of 205.0000 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Texas State 191
• Army 235.7

Against Texas State, UTSA allowed 31 rushing yards. Against Army, they allowed 254 rushing yards. That’s 67%. Estimated rushing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 137.4

The Tennessee passing offense of 242.3333 is most similar to the following prior UTSA opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Houston 239.3
• Texas State 264.7

Against Houston, UTSA allowed 233 passing yards to Houston and 211 to Texas State, 88%. Estimated passing yards for Tennessee against UTSA: 213.3.

Estimated score: UTSA 20.5, Tennessee 28.8
Estimated rushing yards: UTSA 135.7, Tennessee 137.4
Estimated passing yards: UTSA 168.4, Tennessee 213.3

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Home	Home Points	Away	Away Points	Favorite	Spread	Home RY	Away RY	Home PY	Away PY
Tennessee	26.9	UTSA	19	Tennessee	-7.9	159.5	161.2	227.8	144.9

Hat Guy disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 12.1 points.

Guts and Eyeballs

You just keep thinking that the Vols are going to get their act together and have an offensive explosion. But we haven’t seen it yet, so the eyeballs and the guts don’t agree. Giving the guts a few and going with Tennessee 35, UTSA 17 (Vols -18).

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 20-point favorites and are currently 21.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 56 (opening), that translates to something like Tennessee 38, UTSA 18.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 39-19 (Vols -20).

Bottom line

Hat Guy likes the Vols, but not the spread this week.

• Vegas: Tennessee, -20 (~Tennessee 40, UTSA 19)
• SP+: Tennessee -20 (Tennessee 39, UTSA 19) (push)
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -8 (Tennessee 27, UTSA 19) (does not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Tennessee -18 (Tennessee 35, UTSA 17) (does not cover)

What do y’all think?

The Vols host the UTSA Roadrunners on the SEC Network this Saturday at 4:00 p.m. That game is up against the CBS Game of the Week, No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama.

Kicking things off Saturday are a trio of games on the ESPN family of networks, including No. 4 Florida State traveling to Clemson at noon on ABC and a couple of SEC matchups of future Vols foes also at noon.

The evening features a slate of Top 25 matchups plus a No. 3 Texas team heading to Baylor. The biggest game of the evening appears to be No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame at 7:30 on NBC.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, September 23, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

The first couple of weeks of a college football season, you’re pretty much just guessing what’s in the box. You don’t begin to actually know until you have two or three games in the books. Even then, the picture is a bit murky and continues to change as the season progresses.

So what do we actually have, right now, compared to the last couple of years? I wanted to know, so I dusted off our old color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

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The run game on offense appears to be about the same as the season-long numbers from last year, but the passing game is waaaaay off and dragging down the overall offensive numbers. That doesn’t really tell us anything that our eyeballs haven’t. The odd thing, though, is that total passing yards isn’t that far off that of Heupel’s first season. And yet that 2021 team was still able to score points at Heupel’s usual clip. A slightly better run game, better efficiency on first and third downs, and a huge disparity in passing yards per completion seem to explain.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Is the defense actually better? It looks like yeah, mostly. The pass defense was a glaring problem the last couple of years and was probably the offseason focus this summer. But so far, it looks like maybe we’ve robbed the run defense a bit to shore up the pass defense. It doesn’t appear to be a one-for-one trade, though, as the gains against the pass are greater than the losses against the run.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

The team has stepped backward on punt and kickoff return defense, and the punting game is, so far, no better than last year.

Turnovers and Penalties

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So this is interesting. Two seasons and three games in, it’s looking like Heupel’s teams are just generally terrible at penalties. I would not have guessed that of a team regularly trotting out one of the nation’s top offenses. Perhaps seeing a breakdown of offensive and defensive penalties would shed some light on that. But it’s both good news and bad news. Bad news, because you don’t want to hamstring yourself, especially in crucial games against good teams. Good news, because penalties don’t seem to be the main problem for this squad so far.

The team is suffering a bit forcing turnovers.

I don’t know why I keep underestimating The Swamp. It seems like every couple of years I’m thinking (at some point, whether before, during, or just before I’m reminded yet again that it doesn’t always matter) that Tennessee is the better team and it should follow that the Vols should win. I have a hazy recollection of bad things happening against Florida, especially in their habitat, but a curse? Eh, not really a thing. Like Bigfoot, Yeti, Loch Ness, the Bermuda Triangle. Make believe.

And then it makes me believe it again. Giving up a late 63-yard touchdown on 4th and 14 for the go-ahead score? Allowing a receiver to get behind a prevent defense in the end zone on the last play of the game to win? Call it self-fulfilling prophecy. Call it The Weirdness. Call it simple home field advantage. Call it whatever you like, but next time, Joel, remember that it’s real. (Side note: I went looking for the link where I called this phenomenon The Weirdness and got lost in a rabbit hole on Podcast Episode 155 where Will and I go on a five-minute tangent about donuts at around the 5:00 mark. And Will didn’t say that word, by the way. The translation bot disparages our beloved pastor.)

Anyway, the 2023 edition of The Swamp Thing features a Vols squad attempting to play with one arm (and sometimes two) tied behind their metaphorical (and sometimes not metaphorical!) backs.

After a beautiful 71-yard, six-play touchdown drive to begin the game, Tennessee’s offense gnawed off an arm with a series of pre-snap penalties that killed three consecutive drives. Here’s the rap sheet:

• Drive 2: False start on the second 1st and 10. Never recovered. Punt. Afterwards, the Gators ate 7.5 minutes of clock and scored a touchdown.
• Drive 3: False start on the first play of the drive. Pressure (435 pounds of it!) on 2nd and 12 resulted in an interception, which was returned 39 yards. An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty at the end of the play moved the Gators to within 9 yards of the goal line. Touchdown, Gators.
• Drive 4: Another false start, again on the very first play of the drive. Sack on 2nd and 12. Never recovered. Punt. Gators went 55 yards for another touchdown.

After the first, the Vols’ remaining drives ended in three punts and an interception. Three of those four drives were killed by pre-snap penalties that smelled distinctly of swamp water. Josh Heupel’s high-flying offense can score points in buckets when it gets ahead of the chains and can leverage momentum to reach cruising altitude. But when it gets off schedule, it has trouble just getting off the ground. It’s like the opening drive conceived a confidence like that of the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail. I’M INVINCIBLE!

Let’s talk about that . . . tackle?

Speaking of the Black Knight, there was also a moment where the defense decided to play without any arms whatsoever:

Pay close attention to Kamal Hadden (#5) https://t.co/jICO74F5PI

— Jake (@JakeAndBall) September 16, 2023

Oh, boy. That is one of the most egregiously inept efforts at tackling that I have ever seen. Actually, it looks more like the dude just plain decided not to do it.

When my oldest daughter was super young (maybe 5?), we put her in a church soccer camp thing. I don’t know what we were thinking. At that age, she thought she was a horse. Or Simba from the Lion King, depending on the day.

If you’ve ever watched 5-year-olds on a soccer field, you know that it’s basically a herd of baby animals kicking each other. They have no understanding of spacing or passing or strategy. Their goal is simply to find the ball and kick it. The 5-stars at that age understand that they’re supposed to kick it in a certain direction, but that’s about as far as they get with strategy in that division.

But even that wasn’t in my daughter’s playbook. Her entire strategy consisted of just running after the herd. Man, she was good at it, too. She had a nose for the back of the pack, identifying it and seeking it out with an Olympic single-minded purposefulness. If at any point the tide shifted and she suddenly found herself next to the ball in the middle of a blender of shin-hacking appendages, she would instantly spin and sprint toward safety at the end of the line. If they were giving out nicknames, hers would have been “Caboose.”

Watching #5 on that play reminded me of watching my daughter on the soccer field trying to avoid actually playing soccer.

I love my daughter. It turns out, she’s just not cut out for soccer. She’s 27 now, and the good news is that she no longer thinks she’s a horse.

Anyway, I love these college football kids, too, almost as if they were my own. I know it’s not the usual way to root for a sports team, and I’m not judging anyone for doing it differently. But just from my own perspective as a father of three daughters (27, 21, and 12), I view these guys as people to love. I want to see them grow in maturity, strength of mind and character, and faith. I want them to learn discipline, to work hard, to trust teammates, to be a reliable brother and friend, to succeed and learn how to handle that success, and to learn how to deal with failure when it inevitably comes. When a kid has great success and earns the adoration of the masses, I hope the coaches keep him grounded. When a kid makes a mistake and is relentlessly reminded of it through every data feed on his phone, I hope that the coaching staff will balance out the good work of natural consequences with the right amount of constructive criticism spoken in love from people he actually knows and trusts.

There’s no getting around it. That was a terrible effort, and #5 is quickly developing a reputation for being an especially poor tackler (although I will point out that he was the team’s second-leading tackler Saturday night.) He’s certainly hearing about it now, both from his inner circle of coaches and teammates and from all corners of the internet, including this site.

I assume that his goal is to play in the NFL, and I am rooting for him to accomplish all that his heart desires and to grow in all situations, good and bad. I don’t know him, but if I did, I would give him a hug today. And I’d tell him to use his arms. And I would say it with a wink so that he knew that I was joking but also not joking. Joking, because this is football and it’s really not that important in the grand scheme of things. And not joking, because I am really rooting for him to achieve his goals.

I’m not sure why CBS would have chosen Georgia-South Carolina over Tennessee-Florida for its 3:30 time slot today, but I’m glad they did. This is the last year of CBS getting first dibs, by the way. For big games, I’ll miss the music, but not much else. Verne hasn’t been calling those games for seven years now. I like Nessler, but the play-by-play guys haven’t been the issue for me. I don’t even remember (and can’t find) the color analyst before Danielson, but whoever it was, I liked him better. 🙂 And no, it’s not because Danielson says bad things about my team; it’s because he’s rude to his play-by-play, talking over him, correcting him, etc. Oh, look! I’m on a tangent!

Anyway, we have the prime time 7:00 p.m. ESPN slot with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstriet tonight for the big Vols-Gators game, so woo. As appetizers, we also have a handful of noon games for ranked teams we’d like to see upset and the aforementioned South Carolina-Georgia game on CBS at 3:30. Will is likely rooting for Georgia in this one because he wants both teams to be undefeated when they meet in November. I’ll be pulling for the Gamecocks because I want to win the East and I’d like to have some cushion, please and thank you. Who do y’all root for in this one?

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, September 16, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

Y’all know what to watch today — No. 1 Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia on CBS at 3:30 — but we haven’t had much reason lately to also watch The Race, which adds a great deal to the fun of a college football season. So here are some other games to watch that could impact Tennessee’s place in the postseason.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, November 5, 2022

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week: