Author Archives: Joel Hollingsworth

Tennessee opened this week as a 3.5-point favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats with an over/under of 51.5. If it moved at all this week, it’s right back to where it opened.

Tennessee vs Kentucky, according to Hat Guy

From Kentucky’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 19.4 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 20
• Missouri 23.3
• Georgia 14
• Ball State 29

Kentucky’s points against those teams:

• Florida 33
• Missouri 21
• Georgia 13
• Ball State 44

Kentucky’s offensive premium/discount: 129%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 31.6 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Missouri 33.9
• Florida 29.1
• Vanderbilt 27.8
• Georgia 40.1

Kentucky’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Missouri 38
• Florida 14
• Vanderbilt 28
• Georgia 51

Kentucky’s defensive premium/discount: 100%

Estimated score: Kentucky 25.1, Tennessee 31.6

From Tennessee’s perspective

Kentucky’s defense is allowing an average of 23.6 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• UTSA 25.1
• Florida 20
• Texas A&M 19.9
• Alabama 16.5

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• UTSA 45
• Florida 16
• Texas A&M 20
• Alabama 20

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 124%

Kentucky’s offense is scoring an average of 31.3 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Alabama 30.6
• Texas A&M 32.3
• Florida 29.1
• UTSA 29

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Alabama 34
• Texas A&M 13
• Florida 29
• UTSA 14

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 74%

Estimated score: Tennessee 29.2, Kentucky 23.2

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy likes the Vols to win and cover this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 2.7 points. He also likes the over.

Guts and Eyeballs

That actually looks about right to me, to be honest. The fact that it is at Kentucky and Tennessee will be dealing with replacing Kamal Hadden adds some anxiety to the mix.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 27, Kentucky 24. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects a score of Tennessee 26, Kentucky 25 (Vols -1).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Tennessee -3.5 (~Vols 27, Cats 24)
• Vegas current: Same
• Hat Guy: Tennessee -6.2 (Vols 30.4, Cats 24.2) (Vols cover)
• SP+: Tennessee -1 (Vols 26, Cats 25) (Vols do not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Tennessee -6 (Vols 30, Cats 24)

What do y’all think?

No. 19 Tennessee and No. 11 Alabama square off this afternoon in Tuscaloosa at 3:30. CBS has the broadcast. The only real competition for eyeballs at that time is No. 19 Washington State at No. 8 Oregon on ABC. Vols fans probably want to see the Cougars knock the Ducks down a peg in that one.

The day kicks off at noon with a Big 10 Top 10 matchup between No. 6 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State on Fox. And the evening slate features two Top 25 matchups in No. 17 Duke at No. 4 Florida State on ABC at 7:30 and No. 16 Utah at No. 10 USC at 8:00 on Fox. Root for the underdogs in those.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, October 21, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

When the lines came out this week, Vegas had Tennessee as a 9.5-point underdog to the Crimson Tide with an over/under of 48. As I write this, the Vols are now +8.5, and the over/under is 47.5. Hat Guy thinks it’s more of a coin flip.

Tennessee vs Alabama, according to Hat Guy

From Alabama’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Texas 16.3
• Texas A&M 19.9
• Mississippi 23.8
• Arkansas 25.1

Alabama’s points against those teams:

• Texas 24
• Texas A&M 26
• Mississippi 24
• Arkansas 24

Alabama’s offensive premium/discount: 115%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 32.5 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Texas A&M 32.3
• Mississippi State 30.2
• Texas 35
• Arkansas 29.9

Alabama’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Texas A&M 20
• Mississippi State 17
• Texas 34
• Arkansas 21

Alabama’s defensive premium/discount: 72%

Estimated score: Alabama 19.6, Tennessee 23.4

From Tennessee’s perspective

Alabama’s defense is allowing an average of 16 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Texas A&M 19.9
• Florida 20
• UTSA 27.7
• South Carolina 31.3

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Texas A&M 20
• Florida 16
• UTSA 45
• South Carolina 41

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 123%

Alabama’s offense is scoring an average of 30.1 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 29.1
• South Carolina 29
• Texas A&M 32.3
• UTSA 27.8

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 29
• South Carolina 20
• Texas A&M 13
• UTSA 14

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 64%

Estimated score: Tennessee 19.7, Alabama 19.3

Combined Estimated Score

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy actually likes the Vols to win a squeaker this weekend. He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by 11.6 points. His over/under, by the way, is 41.1, which is far below the over/under according to Vegas.

Guts and Eyeballs

Hat Guy is home-field agnostic. A traditional 3-point bump for the home team would make Alabama a 1-point favorite with Hat Guy’s numbers. The only thing that causes concern is that Tennessee’s offensive premium is based on putting up strong numbers against overmatched teams. Against good defensive teams, there isn’t really a premium at all, which would put the Vols’ points right at Alabama’s average scoring defense of 16. That’s still a 3-point game, 6 if you add the home field advantage. But even under this scenario, the Vols still cover and are still within a touchdown of winning. So guts and eyeballs tell me Alabama 20, Tennessee 16.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Alabama 29, Tennessee 19 or . Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama 28, 23 (Tide -4.9).

Bottom line

• Vegas opening: Alabama -9.5 (~Alabama 29, Tennessee 19)
• Vegas current: Alabama -8.5 (~Alabama 28, Tennessee 19)
• Hat Guy: Vols -2.1 (Tennessee 21.6, Alabama 19.5; Vols 22, Tide 20) (Alabama does not cover)
• SP+: Alabama – 4.9 (Alabama 28, Tennessee 23) (Alabama does not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Alabama -4 (Alabama 20, Tennessee 16)

What do y’all think?

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Running the ball.

Where’s the danger?

Passing the ball, protecting the quarterback, first downs, third downs.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Run the ball. Pass enough to avoid becoming one dimensional and hope that the Heuper Drive is finally fixed.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

SACK THE QUARTERBACK! Tennessee should be able to make the most of getting into Alabama’s backfield and either sacking the quarterback or tackling the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage, creating negative plays and putting the offense behind the chains. The numbers also make it look like the Vols defense should be in good shape against the Alabama offense in almost every category. They should be good against the run and the pass and good on first downs, third downs, and fourth downs.

Where’s the danger?

The red zone.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Do their thing. Rack up the negative plays and make everybody on offense uncomfortable. Play solid defense both on the ground and through the air. Stop them early so they don’t get to the red zone and don’t let them have big chunk plays.

Special teams

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Not only is Tennessee good at returning punts, Alabama is not good at defending them. Points may be at a premium in this one, and getting a special teams score could again make a huge difference.

Where’s the danger?

Alabama’s kick returns. Net punting and field position favor Alabama.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Give Alabama an edge in turnovers and penalties.

Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over Texas A&M.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Attaboys: Rushing offense, TFLs allowed.

Must improve: 4th down conversion %, passing yards per completion, passing offense, team passing efficiency, red zone offense, first downs offense, completion percentage, 3rd down conversion percentage, scoring offense, total offense. Basically, the passing game is the thing weighing this offense down.

Defense

Link to table

Attaboys: This team is in the Top 30 in every defensive category except passes intercepted and red zone defense. They are elite in the havoc categories of sacks and TFLs, and they are in the Top 10 on first downs and fourth downs.

Special Teams

Link to table

Turnovers and Penalties

Link to table

The No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers host the unranked but essentially even Texas A&M Aggies this afternoon at 3:30 on CBS. I have no idea why you would be lacking motivation for this one, but just in case, take this medicine:

Also, if you’re interested and can tolerate helpful advice from a Georgia fan without getting the shakes, here are some tips on how to watch college football while listening to homer broadcasts. Don’t worry, there is nothing there rhyming with Bob Fail Root. Or maybe I intentionally tuned it out.

The rest of the day, we’re pretty much rooting for anyone ranked No. 16 or above to lose, with the exception of Alabama because we want their resume to be spotless if/when we beat them and we don’t need them to have an additional loss for a cushion. For the purists, you can also root for Georgia to continuing winning until they come to Knoxville, but in doing so, you need to expect the Vols to run the table. If the Vols lose against Alabama (or anyone else in the SEC), beating Georgia wouldn’t matter because of the Vols’ prior loss to Florida. Me, I’m rooting for insurance. Not that it’s going to matter today, really, because Georgia’s got Vanderbilt at noon.

In addition to Alabama and Georgia, the noon slate features three other teams ranked in the Top 11. They’re also not likely to lose, but noon upsets are a thing and these would be good for the Vols. A Top 10 matchup between No. 8 Oregon and No. 7 Washington will take the national spotlight away from the Vols-Aggies at 3:30, but we’ll be locked in on Tennessee.

The evening slate features three Top 25 matchups, headlined by No. 9 USC at No. 10 Notre Dame. More relevant to Vols fans is No. 21 Missouri vs. No. 20 Kentucky. I don’t know that any of those helps or hurts the Vols, but they should be good entertainment.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, October 14, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

When the lines came out this week, Vegas had Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite over the Aggies with an over/under of 56.5. As I write this, the Vols are now -3, and the over/under is 55.5. Here’s Hat Guy’s two cents. Heading into Week 7, he’s switching from the best two comps to the best four.

Tennessee vs Texas A&M, according to Hat Guy

From Tennessee’s perspective

Texas A&M’s defense is allowing an average of 19.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Florida 16.8
• UTSA 29.2
• South Carolina 29.4
• Virginia 31.8

Tennessee’s points against those teams:

• Florida 16
• UTSA 45
• South Carolina 41
• Virginia 49

Tennessee’s offensive premium/discount: 141%

Texas A&M’s offense is scoring an average of 35.5 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Florida 27.2
• South Carolina 27
• UTSA 25.2
• Virginia 22.3

Tennessee’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Florida 29
• South Carolina 20
• UTSA 14
• Virginia 13

Tennessee’s defensive premium/discount: 75%

Estimated score: Tennessee 28, Texas A&M 26.6

From Texas A&M’s perspective

Tennessee’s defense is allowing an average of 17.8 points per game. The best scoring defense comps are:

• Auburn 18.2
• Alabama 15.2
• Miami (Florida) 14.6
• Arkansas 25.3

Texas A&M’s points against those teams:

• Auburn 27
• Alabama 20
• Miami (Florida) 33
• Arkansas 34

Texas A&M’s offensive premium/discount: 156%

Tennessee’s offense is scoring an average of 36.2 points per game. The best scoring offense comps are:

• Miami (Florida) 39
• Arkansas 31.3
• Alabama 31.2
• Auburn 29.6

Texas A&M’s defensive performance against those teams:

• Miami (Florida) 48
• Arkansas 22
• Alabama 26
• Auburn 10

Texas A&M’s defensive premium/discount: 81%

Estimated score: Texas A&M 27.8, Tennessee 29.3

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

Hat Guy likes the Vols to win but A&M to cover (Vols, -1.5). He disagrees with the Vegas opening spread by only 2 points. His over/under, by the way, is 55.9, which is right between the early and late over/under according to Vegas.

Guts and Eyeballs

The closest defensive comp from Tennessee’s perspective is actually Florida. The other three are on the wrong side and significantly further away. Florida was by far Tennessee’s worst game, but . . . it was early, it was away, it was without Cooper Mays. Still, I don’t like it. Adding to that, A&M is the best offensive team our defense has faced so far this season. By a touchdown.

Other predictions from other systems

Vegas’ opening numbers suggest a score of something like Tennessee 30, Texas A&M 27 or one point less for each team. Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 28-26 (Vols -2).

Bottom line

• Vegas: Vols -3 (~Tennessee 30, Texas A&M 27; Tennessee 29, Texas A&M 26)
• Hat Guy: Vols -1.5 (Tennessee 28.7, A&M 27.2) (does not cover)
• SP+: Vols -2 (Tennessee 28, A&M 26) (does not cover)
• Guts and Eyeballs: Worried that our offense is overvalued relative to A&M’s defense

What do y’all think?

Here’s our color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories as of the win over UTSA. There was, of course, some improvement in the numbers as a result of the victory, as the run game is about as good as it’s ever been under Heupel and the defense is elite at creating negative plays. There is still much room to improve, though, especially in the passing game on offense, penalties, and turnover margin.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Not a whole lot of change after the last two weeks.

Better Than Last Year: TFLs Allowed, Rushing Offense, Sacks Allowed.

Worse Than Last Year: Total Offense, Scoring Offense, and pretty much everything else. The passing game needs to get clicking to complement the run game and make up ground on last year.

Defense

Link to table

Better Than Last Year: Pretty much everything except Rushing Defense, Red Zone Defense, and Passes Intercepted. Look at the improvement in First Downs Defense and Passing Yards Allowed. Remarkable.

Special Teams

Link to table

Not much to note here. Net punting continues to improve, but still has a long way to go.

Turnovers and Penalties

Link to table

Penalties are still improving. Turnover margin still an issue.

Do you want to know if Missouri really deserves that 5-0 start? Or whether Kentucky can parlay its own 5-0 start into a fiesty-fueled upset over a Georgia team with its own questions? Whether Alabama has found its stride or whether Texas A&M might make a run from undefeated to the playoff?

You want answers? This Saturday, we’ll get some.

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Friday, October 6, 2023

Gameday, October 7, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week: