Tennessee opened as a 15-point favorite over Vanderbilt this week, and as I write this, the line is 14.5. The GRT Statsy Preview Machine isn’t particularly sure of itself this week, but it thinks that line is just a bit high. Here’s why.
Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense for both teams
Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 20
Vanderbilt’s Scoring Offense this year: 14.5
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 31.3
Vanderbilt’s Scoring Defense this year: 36.8
From the perspective of Tennessee
The Vanderbilt scoring defense of 36.8 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:
- South Carolina 36
- Arkansas 33
Tennessee scored 31 points against South Carolina but only 13 points against Arkansas.
Together, that’s 64% of what those teams usually give up, making the estimated points for Tennessee against Vanderbilt 23.5.
The Vanderbilt scoring offense of 14.5 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:
- Kentucky 21.7
- South Carolina 23.5
So yeah, this is the worst offense Tennessee has played this season by a long shot. However, Kentucky got 34 points against Tennessee, and South Carolina got 27, 135% of what those teams usually get. That puts the estimated points for Vanderbilt against Tennessee at 19.6.
Estimated score: Tennessee 23.5, Vanderbilt 19.6
From the perspective of Vanderbilt
The Tennessee scoring defense of 31.3 is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponents:
- LSU 33.4
- Mississippi State 28.4
Vanderbilt scored only 7 points against LSU and 17 points against Mississippi State. That’s a measly 39% of what those teams usually give up, putting the estimated points for Vanderbilt against Tennessee at 12.2.
The Tennessee scoring offense of 20 is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponents:
- Kentucky 21.7
- Mississippi State 18.3
Kentucky got 38 points against Vandy, and Mississippi State got 24. That’s 155% of what those teams usually get, so the estimated points for Tennessee against Vanderbilt is 31.
Estimated score: Vanderbilt 12.2, Tennessee 31
SPM Final Estimates
Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:
SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 27.3, Vanderbilt 15.9
SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -11.4
Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 3.6
That makes this a Category 1 game, meaning the Machine is not particularly self-confident.
Eyeball adjustments
I feel pretty good about most of those comps with the exception of using just South Carolina and Arkansas for scoring defense due to the significantly different performances against those teams. Due to that, I re-ran the Machine using three comps and got this: Tennessee -17.8, which feels more right. However, re-running it again with all games as comps, the result is back to Tennessee -11.5, basically the same as running it with only two comps. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
So . . . I’m going with the all comps version (and leaning toward a higher spread in favor of the Vols): Tennessee 27, Vanderbilt 15. I do think it could easily be more than that, but as good as optimism is at holding my hand through the valleys, it’s terrible at picking games. 🙂
Other predictions from other systems
With the Vols 15-point favorites and an over/under of 51.5, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 18.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee by 16.8 (Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 17) and gives the Vols an 83% chance of winning.
Bottom line
I am in reluctant agreement with the Statsy Preview Machine that the Vols will not cover the 15-point opening spread this week. We are both at odds with SP+.
- Vegas: Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 18 (Tennessee -15)
- SP+: Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 17 (Tennessee -16.8, covers)
- GRT’s Statsy Preview Machine: Tennessee 27.3, Vanderbilt 15.9 (Tennessee -11.4, doesn’t cover)
- Me: Tennessee 27, Vanderbilt 15 (Tennessee -12, doesn’t cover)
Season results on Tennessee games
- Week 4: The SPM and I were both right (albeit overconfident) in saying the Vols would cover against South Carolina.
- Week 5: The SPM and I were both wrong in thinking the Vols would not cover and would win by only 6 points. They won by 23.
- Week 6: The SPM was right, but I was wrong. The SPM predicted Georgia to cover a 14.5-point spread with a score of Georgia 29, Tennessee 12, while my eyeball adjustment revised that to say the Bulldogs would not cover with a score of Georgia 24, Tennessee 20. Georgia covered with a score of Georgia 44, Tennessee 21.
- Week 7: Both the SPM and I were wrong in thinking the Vols would cover 6.5 points as a favorite over the Kentucky Wildcats. The Vols lost 34-7. Oof.
- Week 8: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Alabama would cover the 20-point spread, the machine calling it 47-22 and me calling it 47-24. Alabama won 48-17.
- Week 10: The SPM was right and I was wrong about the Arkansas game. The Machine predicted the Vols would not cover a 1-point spread against Arkansas, and I predicted a 1-point win. Arkansas won 24-13.
- Week 12: Both the SPM and I were right in predicting that Auburn would cover the 11.5-point spread. Auburn won by 13, 30-17.
- Week 14: Both the SPM and I were wrong in predicting that Florida would cover the 17-point spread. Florida won by 12.
Season-long results for all games can be found here.
What do y’all think?
