Tennessee opened as a 12.5-point underdog to Texas A&M this week, and the line has since moved to 14. With a gun to its head, the GRT Statsy Preview Machine is predicting that the Aggies will cover, but it’s also screaming that both teams are inconsistent enough to be wary of the whole thing.

Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense for both teams

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s Scoring Offense this year: 22.4
Texas A&M’s Scoring Offense this year: 31.4
Tennessee’s Scoring Defense this year: 29.7
Texas A&M’s Scoring Defense this year: 22.1

The Texas A&M scoring defense of 22.1 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

  • Auburn 23.7
  • Georgia 19.9

Tennessee scored 17 points against Auburn and 21 points against Georgia. Combined, that’s 87% of what those teams usually give up, making the estimated points for Tennessee against Texas A&M 19.2.

The Texas A&M scoring offense of 31.4 is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponents:

  • Georgia 33.2
  • Missouri 26.1

Georgia scored 44 points against Tennessee, but Missouri got only 12. So, against the best comps, Tennessee allowed 94% of what those teams usually get. That makes the estimated points for Texas A&M against Tennessee 29.5.

Estimated score: Tennessee 19.2, Texas A&M 29.5

From the perspective of Texas A&M

The Tennessee scoring defense of 29.7 is most similar to the following prior Texas A&M opponents:

  • Mississippi State 27.9
  • Florida 26.3

Texas A&M scored 28 points against Mississippi State but 41 points against Florida, which, taken together, is 127% of what those teams usually give up. That makes the estimated points for Texas A&M against Tennessee 37.7.

The Tennessee scoring offense of 22.4 is most similar to the following prior Texas A&M opponents:

  • South Carolina 23.5
  • Arkansas 25.7

South Carolina scored only 3 points against Texas A&M. Arkansas got 31. Combined, that’s 69% of what those teams usually get, which makes the estimated points for Tennessee against Texas A&M 15.5.

Estimated score: Texas A&M 37.7, Tennessee 15.5

SPM Final Estimates

Combining the results from both perspectives, here’s what we get:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 17.4, Texas A&M 33.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Texas A&M -16.2

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 3.7

That makes this a Category 1 game, meaning the Machine is not particularly self-confident.

Eyeball adjustments

I think it’s wise to be wary of the Machine’s results this week. For one, using Georgia and Missouri as scoring offense comps from Tennessee’s perspective is troubling because Georgia got a lot more than they should have and Missouri got a lot less. Plus, all four of the comps from A&M’s perspective have similar problems, especially South Carolina and Arkansas as scoring defense comps. This demonstrates quite nicely that both Tennessee and Texas A&M have been inconsistent this season.

So, I decided to run the Machine again using every game of the season as comps for both teams. The result? Tennessee 17.6, Texas A&M 31.7, a spread of -14.1.

So . . . what we’re dealing with here is a situation where both teams are inconsistent, but one is clearly still better over a larger sample size. That means that I’m going with Texas A&M 31, Tennessee 17 (A&M -14), but also hopeful for a wildly different result in Tennessee’s favor if the Vols play well and the Aggies play poorly.

Other predictions from other systems

With the Vols 12.5-point underdogs and an over/under of 51.5, Vegas is predicting a score of something like Texas A&M 32, Tennessee 19.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Texas A&M by 12.5 (Texas A&M 33, Tennessee 20, Vanderbilt 17) and gives the Vols a 24% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The Statsy Preview Machine has done its best with the data it has, but I think it has overshot the mark a bit due to using only two comps each from inconsistent teams. However, we both think that A&M covers the opening spread. SP+ spit out the same prediction as the opening line and also has A&M against the spread, but only after rounding.

  • Vegas: Texas A&M 32, Tennessee 19 (Texas A&M -12.5)
  • SP+: Texas A&M 33, Tennessee 20 (Texas A&M -13, covers)
  • GRT’s Statsy Preview Machine: Texas A&M 33.6, Tennessee 17.4 (Texas A&M -16.2, covers)
  • Me: Texas A&M 31, Tennessee 17 (Texas A&M -14, covers) (but on upset alert!)

Season results on Tennessee games

Season-long results for all games can be found here.

What do y’all think?