Friends, we got problems, and our weekly reassessment of expected win totals is likely to reflect the extent of those problems. You can get your own expected win total (and have your number used in our community results) using the GRT Expected Win Total Machine.
Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season
| Opponent | Preseason | W7 | W8 | W9 | W10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC | TN -21.9 | ||||
| MO | TN -10.1 | ||||
| GA | GA -26.2 | ||||
| KY | KY -.7 | ||||
| AL | AL -27.9 | AL -25.1 | |||
| AR | TN -14.1 | AR -.2 | AR -4.1 | TN -.5 | |
| TAMU | TAMU -6.4 | TN -1 | TAMU -3.7 | TAMU -9.7 | TAMU -29.8 |
| AUB | AUB -9.6 | AUB -4.8 | AUB -6.9 | AUB -18.7 | AUB -15.7 |
| VAN | TN -9.4 | TN -21 | TN -21.2 | TN -21 | TN -24 |
| FL | FL -22.8 | FL -13.6 | FL -14.4 | FL -21.8 | FL -24.9 |
Those are unhappy predictions. Two-to-four touchdown underdogs in three of the last four games. Woo.
My assessment
My expected win total for this season is now 2.95.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 5.4
- After beating South Carolina: 5.8
- After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
- After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
- After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
- After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
- After the bye week: 4.0
- After the loss to Arkansas: 2.95
Details: I have Florida at 5%, Texas A&M and Auburn both at 15%, and Vanderbilt at 60%.
Here’s a visual:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 2-4, 4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ South Carolina | W | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Missouri | W | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 3 Georgia | L | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Kentucky | L | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 48-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Arkansas | L | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 23 Auburn | L | 30-17 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 6 Florida | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 19 | @ Vanderbilt (??) |
Somehow, the loss to Arkansas did more damage to my expectations than I figured a toss-up game could. I think it’s that the first half made me believe they were who I thought they were and the second half made everybody forget everything. Apart from Vanderbilt, Arkansas should have been the easiest out in the back half of the season, and an almost unanimous toss-up turned from a brewing confidence-builder to an 11-point loss in the span of 15 minutes. The Vols can still find themselves, but if they don’t, they’re in real trouble most of the rest of the way.
Bottom line for me, their own inconsistency is reducing expectations pretty significantly.
The Vols’ future opponents
Texas A&M
Current record: 5-1, 2nd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 4 Florida | W | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Mississippi State | W | 28-14 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Arkansas | W | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ South Carolina | W | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Ole Miss | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs LSU | W | 20-7 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 22 Auburn | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Tennessee |
The Aggies made it look easy against the Gamecocks, so we’re going to have to double dip on this one, docking the Vols 10% and crediting A&M 10%. This one’s moving from 35% to 15% for me.
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 4-2, 3rd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 23 Kentucky | W | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 4 Georgia | L | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Arkansas | W | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ South Carolina | L | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Ole Miss | W | 35-28 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs LSU | W | 48-11 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Tennessee | W | 30-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Mississippi State |
Off this week. I’m moving this game 25% to 15%.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 0-5, 7th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 10 Texas A&M | L | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 20 LSU | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs South Carolina | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Ole Miss | L | 54-21 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Mississippi State | L | 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Kentucky | L | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs 6 Florida | L | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ Missouri | L | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 9 Georgia | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | ??? |
Vanderbilt appears to be who we thought they were. But we appear not to be, so I’m moving this one from 80% to 60%.
Florida Gators
Current record: 4-1, 1st in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Ole Miss | W | 51-35 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs South Carolina | W | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 21 Texas A&M | L | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Missouri | W | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 5 Georgia | W | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Arkansas | W | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Kentucky | W | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Tennessee | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs LSU |
I think I have sighed at least 100 times today, no exaggeration. On the bright side, the Vols are going to get an opportunity for a really big win when they play Florida. Examining the empty part of the cup, though, the Gators appear to be the main challenger to Alabama this year, so yeah, it’s really, really unlikely to happen. Awesome. I’m moving this one from 10% to 5%.
The Vols’ past opponents
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 2-4, 5th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 16 Tennessee | L | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 3 Florida | L | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Auburn | W | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ LSU | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 7 Texas A&M | L | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Ole Miss | L | 59-42 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Missouri | L | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 9 Georgia | L | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Kentucky |
Clobbered by the team we’re playing next week. Ugh.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 2-3, 3rd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 21 Tennessee | L | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 17 LSU | W | 45-41 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Vanderbilt | Postponed | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs Kentucky | W | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 10 Florida | L | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs 5 Georgia | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ South Carolina | W | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Arkansas | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 |
Off this week.
Georgia
Current record: 4-2, 2nd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Arkansas | W | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 7 Auburn | W | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 14 Tennessee | W | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ Kentucky | W | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 8 Florida | L | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Missouri | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Mississippi State | W | 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ South Carolina | W | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Vanderbilt |
I’m all for seeing another loss on Georgia’s 2020 resume and everything, but if it means the Gators get a win, well, the world can be a hard and cruel place. Also, the Dawgs were down several key defenders, so maybe they just got 2020’d. Also also, we figured in the preseason that the offense would be their undoing, and it looks like maybe it’s turning out that way. It’s just that Stetson Bennett did a good job of hiding that for a few games.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 2-4, 5th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 8 Auburn | L | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Ole Miss | L | 42-41 (OT) |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Mississippi State | W | 24-2 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Tennessee | W | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Missouri | L | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs 5 Georgia | L | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 6 Florida | L | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs South Carolina |
Also off this week.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 6-0, 1st in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Missouri | W | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 13 Texas A&M | W | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Ole Miss | W | 63-48 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs 3 Georgia | W | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Tennessee | W | 48-17 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Mississippi State | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ LSU | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Kentucky | W | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 22 Auburn | W | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Arkansas |
Off.
Arkansas Razorbacks
Current record: 3-3, 4th in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 4 Georgia | L | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 16 Mississippi State | W | 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 13 Auburn | L | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Ole Miss | W | 33-21 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 8 Texas A&M | L | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs Tennessee | W | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ 6 Florida | L | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs LSU | L | 27-24 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Missouri |
Should be 4-2 and tied with Auburn (but with a head-to-head tiebreaker) for 3rd in the West.
One more: Sigh.
Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.