It’s Post-Game Monday, which means that it’s time to re-assess our expected win totals in light of Tennessee’s loss to Alabama on Saturday. You can submit your own ballot at the GRT Expected Win Total Machine page.
But first, a diversion: I dreamed last night that I was in a sort of marching band. Not odd yet, as I was Marching Band Nerd Royalty for a time in my small high school in rural Illinois.
The odd stuff begins with the fact that our marching routine included following these weird patterns on the ground. It was kind of like the Yellow Brick Road, but not yellow. Or brick, really, but more brick-ish. Anyway, I was feeling bad because I got lost following some blue shape in circles while everyone else knew what they were doing.
But more weird: Nick Saban was our instructor, and he was pissed at me. So, feeling like a miserable failure, I tried to line up for the next exercise and, as can only happen in dreams, I ended up at the back of a school bus holding a cornet (it’s like a smaller trumpet.) Saban’s standing next to me. Everybody’s watching. Saban looks at me with disdain (or maybe it’s his regular expession — who knows, right? And, of course, he says, “Give me that. I bet I can play that better than you.”
Dude doesn’t even bother to sanitize the mouthpiece. (Like we’re not in a pandemic!) Saban plays Oh, Delta Dawn perfectly and hands my cornet back to me with a smug expression. I don’t even know whether I am capable of playing Delta Dawn in my dream, but I’m embarrassed regardless.
Getting shown up by Nick Saban on the cornet in a dream feels roughly the same as getting shown up by him on the football field in real life. Worse, I’ve been singing Oh, Delta Dawn most of the day. Why couldn’t it have been something by Bon Jovi or Journey or something?
Anyway . . .
Statsy Preview Machine Current Predictions for the Remainder of the season
| Opponent | Preseason | W7 | W8 | W9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC | TN -21.9 | |||
| MO | TN -10.1 | |||
| GA | GA -26.2 | |||
| KY | KY -.7 | |||
| AL | AL -27.9 | AL -25.1 | ||
| AR | TN -14.1 | AR -.2 | AR -4.1 | TN -.5 |
| TAMU | TAMU -6.4 | TN -1 | TAMU -3.7 | TAMU -9.7 |
| AUB | AUB -9.6 | AUB -4.8 | AUB -6.9 | AUB -18.7 |
| VAN | TN -9.4 | TN -21 | TN -21.2 | TN -21 |
| FL | FL -22.8 | FL -13.6 | FL -14.4 | FL -21.8 |
Yes, the SPM is currently favoring the Vols in only one more game this year.
My assessment
My expected win total for this season is now 4.3.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
- Preseason: 5.4
- After beating South Carolina: 5.8
- After beating Missouri: No analysis, but would have gone up
- After the loss to Georgia: 5.45
- After the loss to Kentucky: 4.3
- After the loss to Alabama: 4.25
Details: I have Florida at 10%, Texas A&M at 40% (no longer at odds with the SPM on this one), Auburn at 45%, Arkansas at 50%, and Vanderbilt at 80%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ South Carolina | W | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Missouri | W | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 3 Georgia | L | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Kentucky | L | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 48-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Arkansas | L | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 23 Auburn | L | 30-17 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 6 Florida | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 19 | @ Vanderbilt (??) |
The pre-game facts: Vegas thought Tennessee would lose to Alabama by 21. SP+ thought they’d lose by 18.5, and the GRT Statsy Preview Machine thought they’d lose by 25. The Vols lost by 31. The facts always seems worse when accompanied by emotions, but objectively speaking, what we saw on Saturday isn’t really much different from what we expected. So for me, Saturday’s result had some impact on how I feel but little to no impact on my expectations going forward.
The Vols’ future opponents
Arkansas Razorbacks
Current record: 2-2, 4th in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 4 Georgia | L | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 16 Mississippi State | W | 21-14 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 13 Auburn | L | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Ole Miss | W | 33-21 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 8 Texas A&M | L | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs Tennessee | W | 24-13 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ 6 Florida | L | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs LSU | L | 27-24 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Missouri |
Off. No change. Still a toss up at 50%.
Texas A&M
Current record: 3-1, 2nd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 4 Florida | W | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Mississippi State | W | 28-14 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Arkansas | W | 42-31 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ South Carolina | W | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Ole Miss | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs LSU | W | 20-7 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 22 Auburn | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Tennessee |
Off. No change. Still at 40%.
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 3-2, 3rd in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 23 Kentucky | W | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 4 Georgia | L | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Arkansas | W | 30-28 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ South Carolina | L | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Ole Miss | W | 35-28 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs LSU | W | 48-11 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Tennessee | W | 30-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs 5 Texas A&M | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | @ Mississippi State |
Auburn’s 7-point win over Ole Miss was actually closer than it seemed. No real change in my opinion of Auburn this week, and I’m keeping this game at 45%.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 0-3, 7th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 10 Texas A&M | L | 17-12 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 20 LSU | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs South Carolina | L | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Ole Miss | L | 54-21 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | @ Mississippi State | L | 24-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Kentucky | L | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs 6 Florida | L | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ Missouri | L | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ 9 Georgia | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | ??? |
Off. No change. Still at 80%.
Florida Gators
Current record: 2-1, 2nd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Ole Miss | W | 51-35 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs South Carolina | W | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 21 Texas A&M | L | 41-38 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | Missouri | W | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 5 Georgia | W | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Arkansas | W | 63-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 38-17 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Kentucky | W | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Tennessee | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 | vs LSU |
Off. No change. 10%.
The Vols’ past opponents
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 16 Tennessee | L | 31-27 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 3 Florida | L | 38-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 41-7 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Auburn | W | 30-22 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ LSU | L | 52-24 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 7 Texas A&M | L | 48-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Ole Miss | L | 59-42 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Missouri | L | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 9 Georgia | L | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Kentucky |
Hmm. A blow-out loss to a struggling LSU team might have me thinking less of Tennessee’s win over the Gamecocks. For now, though, no. At least not yet.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 2-2, 3rd in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | vs 2 Alabama | L | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | @ 21 Tennessee | L | 35-12 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ 17 LSU | W | 45-41 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs Vanderbilt | Postponed | |
| Sat, Oct 24 | vs Kentucky | W | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ 10 Florida | L | 41-17 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs 5 Georgia | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ South Carolina | W | 17-10 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Arkansas | ||
| Sat, Dec 12 |
Oh, boy. What do we do when a team that we beat by 23 beats a team that beat us by 27 by 10? Shake our heads and conclude that an All-SEC schedule in 2020 is going to produce results like that.
Georgia
Current record: 3-1, 1st in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Arkansas | W | 37-10 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 7 Auburn | W | 27-6 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs 14 Tennessee | W | 44-21 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ 2 Alabama | L | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | @ Kentucky | W | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 7 | vs 8 Florida | L | 44-28 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ Missouri | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Mississippi State | W | 31-24 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ South Carolina | W | 45-16 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs Vanderbilt |
Off. No change.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 2-3, 4th in the SEC East
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ 8 Auburn | L | 29-13 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs Ole Miss | L | 42-41 (OT) |
| Sat, Oct 10 | vs Mississippi State | W | 24-2 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | @ Tennessee | W | 34-7 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Missouri | L | 20-10 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs 5 Georgia | L | 14-3 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | vs Vanderbilt | W | 38-35 |
| Sat, Nov 21 | @ 1 Alabama | L | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | @ 6 Florida | L | 34-10 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | vs South Carolina |
See Missouri above. Shrug.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 5-0, 1st in the SEC West
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
| Sat, Sep 26 | @ Missouri | W | 38-19 |
| Sat, Oct 3 | vs 13 Texas A&M | W | 52-24 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | @ Ole Miss | W | 63-48 |
| Sat, Oct 17 | vs 3 Georgia | W | 41-24 |
| Sat, Oct 24 | @ Tennessee | W | 48-17 |
| Sat, Oct 31 | vs Mississippi State | W | 41-0 |
| Sat, Nov 14 | @ LSU | Postponed | |
| Sat, Nov 21 | vs Kentucky | W | 63-3 |
| Sat, Nov 28 | vs 22 Auburn | W | 42-13 |
| Sat, Dec 5 | @ Arkansas |
Huh. When you look at the rest of Alabama’s resume, you might feel a bit better. We didn’t give up 63. We only scored one touchdown less than a couple of ranked teams. As good as Georgia is, they only gave up one fewer touchdown and scored one more. Alabama’s just good. End of story. Call it reaching if you want, but it’s the truth.
Don’t forget to submit your own ballot to the GRT Win Total Machine.