The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: 2019 Week 7

It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.

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Vols Have the Need, the Need…for LBs

After the departure of upperclassmen Will Ignot and Shannon Reid via the transfer portal, followed by the dismissal of promising Sophomore RB-turned-LB Jeremy Banks – all within the span of the last two weeks – Tennessee now finds itself with a shocking lack of depth at Inside Linebacker.  To illustrate the point, starters Daniel Bituli (a senior who by definition won’t be returning next season) and Henry To’oto’to took every single one of the snaps against Georgia this past Saturday night, as little-used backups JJ Peterson (RSFr), Solon Page (RSSo) and Aaron Beasley (True Fr) were deemed to be unready by the staff.  As it pertains to the rest of the season, Coach Jeremy Pruitt and Defensive Coordinator Derrick Ansley will have to simultaneously get those three backups up to speed as much as possible in order for them to be able to hold up for even just a few plays a game while also finding some answers from other positions.  As for the latter, True Freshman Quarvaris Crouch, who practiced inside during the spring before being moved to OLB/DE this season – with some limited success – is the most likely option.  And that could very well be a strong solution both in the near and short term, as Crouch has unlimited potential regardless of where he lines up and frankly is built much more to play ILB than to play on the outside.  Peterson is a former borderline 5-star prospect who despite getting off the a rough start still very much has the belief of the coaching staff.  Were he to take a step as the season progresses that would be big news both immediately and for the future.  Regardless, when it comes to future roster building, the bottom line is that Tennessee is in dire need of LBs in the class of 2020, and ideally will sign multiple prospects who can step in and play right away in 2020.

To that end, the Vols have massively increased their efforts with the three 4-star LBs from Memphis’s Whitehaven HS: Bryson Eason, Martavius French (committed to Arkansas), and Tammarion McDonald (committed to Mississippi State).  The trio took their official visits to Tennessee this past weekend for the UGA game and by all accounts the Vols made a major move with each of them.  Interestingly, they each have very different body types and theoretically project to different spots on the defense, with Eason more of a pure ILB, French potentially a 3-4 DE, and McDonald (the lighter of the three) as a Nickel LB or even SS.  The Vols could use all the talent that all three possess, but it should be noted that landing them doesn’t cure all of what ails the Vols at the LB spot by itself. 

Tennessee is also still actively recruiting two longtime LB targets in Len’Neth Whitehead and Noah Sewell, but despite heading into the season as the presumed leader for Whitehead and as strong contender for Sewell, the Vols seem to have faded with both.  Whitehead, who took his OV to Tennessee for the season opening debacle against Georgia State, has been trending to South Carolina for the past few weeks after attending their moral victory 24-point loss to Alabama and then MASSIVE win over a Kentucky team whose Quarterback was playing with one arm.  He’s taking an OV to Wisconsin this weekend, which could theoretically throw a wrench in his recruitment since they are a) a very, very good program, and b) recruiting him solely as a RB and have quite the history to point to.  Assuming however that distance and relative familiarity end of working against the Badgers this will come down to the Vols and the Gamecocks, and if the Vols want to retake the lead here they’ll likely need to get him back to campus before he announces.  Whitehead is an incredibly athletic prospect with very good speed to go with plus-size, and despite a general lack of interest from hometown Georgia is a tremendous prospect who would likely get a lot of immediate playing time if he signed with Tennessee.  Sewell is a physical marvel who moves like a 225-pound LB despite being closer to 270 pounds.  After a very good unofficial visit to Knoxville over the summer the Vols had placed themselves in a position to be in his recruitment to the end along with Oregon, where his brother plays, and Georgia.  However, the 5-star perhaps has soured on Tennessee since the season began and now the Vols are just fighting to get an official visit.  Right now he appears to be a longshot, but perhaps with a strong rest of the season and persistence from recruiter extraordinaire Brian Niedermeyer Tennessee can keep itself in the mix.

A LB prospect who hasn’t yet been mentioned with Tennessee the #1 JUCO LB in the country in Tyrus Wheat.  He’s a Mississippi State commitment from Amite, LA who took an OV to South Carolina and also had an Auburn offer before he committed to the Bulldogs over the summer.  To be clear, there is no public indication that there is interest on either side, let alone mutual, but Tennessee will absolutely need immediate help at the position and this would be the ideal situation to add a JUCO player.  If the Joe Moorhead to Rutgers come to fruition all bets will be off with Mississippi State’s commitment, so it would behoove Tennessee to at least try to stay on Wheat’s radar should they opportunity to poach present itself. 

Finally, an incredibly intriguing option is Ole Miss commitment De’rickey Wright.  Wright is a former Alabama commitment from Gadsden who flipped to Ole Miss in June.  Featured in a 247Sports article titled “Five Potential Freaks in Alabama’s Class,” he’s listed at 6’4, 220 with a +10-inch wingspan.  He’s played all over the field in his high school career, collecting TFLs, sacks, forced fumbles and lots of INTS and touchdowns – 10 and 20, respectively, last season alone.  He competed as a DB at a handful of summer combines and more than held his own, showing his functional athleticism. He’s also a high-academic prospect (don’t let the Ole Miss commitment fool you) who has offers from the likes of Duke, Notre Dame, UVA and Vanderbilt.  Importantly, he’s been to Knoxville at least three times, including being a visitor for two of Tennessee’s home games this season – returning for the electric atmosphere this past weekend vs. UGA despite being in the house for the Georgia State catastrophe.  Ole Miss is recruiting him as a Safety, and apparently the Vols like him on offense – sort of recruiting him like they were with Dee Beckwith as a Jumbo Pass-catcher.  But, very notably, Alabama was recruiting him as a LB, projecting that upon getting into a bigtime S&C program he’d outgrow the defensive backfield.  Like the Whitehaven prospects, though, Wright is simply a guy with the kind of athleticism and measurables – and production to go with it – that Tennessee needs more of even if he either a) isn’t ready to contribute at LB immediately or b) ends up at a different position.  He’s a guy who, especially with his very clear interest in the Vols, the staff should be going all-in for.

Tennessee has clear needs at just about every position on the roster.  There simply isn’t enough talent or depth necessary to compete.  However, at ILB in particular the need is not just for quality but also for quantity.  The Vols are making moves to address that to a certain degree with the potential of Crouch from OLB to ILB as well as the new laser focus on the Whitehaven kids.  However, they likely need more than just them, and fortunately there are still options out there.

Will the Vols cover against Mississippi State?

The Bulldogs opened as a 6.5-point favorite over Tennessee, and the line has now moved to 7. Will the Vols cover against Mississippi State?

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

The SPM went 26-20 (56.52%) in Week 6 on all games. Above the pre-chosen confidence level it was 12-4 (75%) and within the pre-chosen confidence range it was 5-2 (71.43%). That’s a bit odd, as it’s usually better in the range than just over the threshold, but there you are.

For the season, the SPM is doing well in its feel-good spots but still playing catch up overall. It’s 132-143 (48%) overall, 66-58 (53.23%) above the confidence level, and 33-20 (62.26%) within the confidence range. The SPM was feeling confident last week when it predicted that Georgia would cover the 25.5-point spread, and to our dismay it was right.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-Mississippi State game? Let’s have a look.

Vols-Bulldogs

From the perspective of Mississippi State

Bulldogs points:

  • Mississippi State scoring offense for the season: 30.2
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 28.8

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Mississippi State opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Southern Mississippi 30.4
  • Kentucky 24.4

Mississippi State scored 28 points against Kentucky and 38 points against Southern Mississippi. So, against the two best comps, Mississippi State is scoring 1.2 of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for Mississippi State against Tennessee: 34.6

Tennessee points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.6
  • Mississippi State scoring defense for the season: 28.6

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Mississippi State opponent(s):

  • Kentucky 23.4
  • Southern Mississippi 27.6

Against Kentucky, Mississippi State allowed 13 points, and against Southern Mississippi, they allowed 15, meaning Mississippi State allowed only 0.55 of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Mississippi State: 13

Estimated score: Mississippi State 34.6, Tennessee 13

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.6
  • Mississippi State scoring defense for the season: 28.6

The Mississippi State scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • BYU 31.2
  • Georgia State 40.8

Tennessee scored 26 points against BYU and 30 points against Georgia State, which means that Tennessee scored 0.78 of what those teams usually give up.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Mississippi State: 22.3

Mississippi State points:

  • Mississippi State scoring offense for the season: 30.2
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 28.8

The Mississippi State scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

  • Florida 32.3
  • Georgia State 36.4

Tennessee allowed 34 points to Florida and 38 points to Georgia State. So, against the two best comps, Tennessee allowed 1.05 of what those teams usually score.

Estimated points for Mississippi State against Tennessee: 31.7

Estimated score: Tennessee 22.3, Mississippi State 31.7

SPM Final Estimates

Tossing all of that into the soup, here’s what the SPM cooks up:

SPM Final estimated score: Mississippi State 33.2, Tennessee 17.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Mississippi State -15.6

SPM Confidence level: 9.1

That 9.1 confidence level is in the confidence range that the SPM likes the best this season. In other words, this is one of its favorite picks this week. SPM, I hated you last week, and I hate you again this week.

Eyeball adjustments

Here’s the thing. The SPM is for the most part blissfully unaware of Mississippi State’s game against Auburn. It’s accounted for in the Bulldogs’ offensive and defensive scoring numbers for the year, but it is completely ignored as a comp. Whether it should be or not is, of course, the question. Tennessee is not Auburn. But whether that game revealed some exploitable vulnerability, well, that is the question. The SPM also doesn’t know the names “Jarrett Guarantano” or “Brian Maurer” or how either of those names translates into points.

With that, I’m torn. I trust the machine in that confidence range, but over 15 just seems too high. If I was picking this game with my eyes closed and computer off, I’d probably go with 20 points for the Vols and 24-27 for the Bulldogs. So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Mississippi State 27, Tennessee 20, a spread of 7. That’s still a prediction that the Vols won’t cover. I now hate myself, too.

Other predictions from other systems

The Vegas line opened with Mississippi State a 6.5-point favorite, and it has now moved to 7. The over/under of 53 translates to Mississippi State 30, Tennessee 23. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 35% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia, 31-25, and gives the Vols a 37% chance of winning. That’s a spread of -6, so it’s picking Tennessee to cover. SP+ cooled just a wee bit last week, going 26-22 (54%) overall, but it’s still hot enough to scorch at 58% on the season. As I said earlier, our SPM is only 48% on the season, but it was 56.52% this week. It’s over 62% in our feel-good range.

Bottom line

Both I and the SPM think the Vols fail to cover the opening 6.5-point spread this week.

What do y’all think?

College Football TV Schedule: Week 7

The Vols host Mississippi State this Saturday at noon on the SEC Network. In addition to that, there’s the Red River Rivalry, a Top 25 SEC matchup, a Top 10 SEC matchup, and some future Vols opponents in action. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Appalachian State Louisiana 8:00 PM ESPN2 Live It's football

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Syracuse NC State 8:00 PM ESPN Live It's football

Friday, October 11, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
No. 20 Virginia Miami 8:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop Top 25 team

There are three maybe-decent games on Friday night, although with the Vols game kicking at noon on Gameday, I wouldn’t recommend the Colorado-Oregon game that starts at 10:00, except for the whipper-snappers who haven’t figured out that sleep is important yet. #GetOffMyLawn

Gameday, October 12, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
Mississippi State Tennessee 12:00 PM SECN Live Go Vols
South Carolina No. 3 Georgia 12:00 PM ESPN DVR Future and prior opponents
No. 6 Oklahoma No. 11 Texas 12:00 PM FOX Top 15 matchup
AFTERNOON
No. 1 Alabama No. 24 Texas A&M 3:30 PM CBS Live Future opponent, Top 25 matchup
UNLV Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN DVR, Check-in Future opponent
UAB UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN+ DVR, Check-in Future opponent
EVENING
No. 7 Florida No. 5 LSU 8:00 PM ESPN Live Former opponent, Top 10 matchup
Ole Miss Missouri 7:00 PM ESPN2 DVR Future opponent

The Vols kick the day off at noon on the SEC Network against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. At the same time, former opponent Georgia hosts future opponent South Carolina on ESPN. Meanwhile, the casual nation’s eyes will be on the Red River Rivalry on Fox, also at noon.

The main game in the afternoon slot is a Top 25 SEC matchup between No. 1 Alabama and No. 24 Texas A&M on CBS. There are two future Vols opponents in action in that slot, too, in Vanderbilt and UAB, so DVR them for scouting and maybe just check in with them live if the Tide-Aggies game gets out of hand.

The prime time slot features a Top 10 SEC matchup between the No. 7 Florida Gators (boo!) and the No. 5 LSU Tigers (Geaux Tigahs!) That one’s on ESPN at 8:00. Future opponent Missouri is also in action on ESPN2 at 7:00 against Ole Miss.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
10/9/19 Appalachian State Louisiana 8:00 PM ESPN2
10/10/19 Syracuse NC State 8:00 PM ESPN
10/10/19 UL Monroe Texas State 9:15 PM ESPNU
10/11/19 Virginia Miami 8:00 PM ESPN
10/11/19 Colorado State New Mexico 8:00 PM CBSSN
10/11/19 Colorado Oregon 10:00 PM FS1
10/12/19 South Carolina Georgia 12:00 PM ESPN
10/12/19 Oklahoma Texas 12:00 PM FOX
10/12/19 Michigan Illinois 12:00 PM ABC
10/12/19 Memphis Temple 12:00 PM ESPN2
10/12/19 Maryland Purdue 12:00 PM
10/12/19 Mississippi State Tennessee 12:00 PM SECN
10/12/19 Rutgers Indiana 12:00 PM
10/12/19 Miami (OH) Western Michigan 12:00 PM ESPNU
10/12/19 Toledo Bowling Green 12:00 PM
10/12/19 Georgia Tech Duke 12:30 PM ACCNX
10/12/19 Ball State Eastern Michigan 2:00 PM ESPN+
10/12/19 Old Dominion Marshall 2:30 PM
10/12/19 New Mexico State Central Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN3
10/12/19 Alabama Texas A&M 3:30 PM CBS
10/12/19 Florida State Clemson 3:30 PM ABC
10/12/19 Michigan State Wisconsin 3:30 PM
10/12/19 Washington State Arizona State 3:30 PM PAC12
10/12/19 Cincinnati Houston 3:30 PM ESPN2
10/12/19 BYU South Florida 3:30 PM CBSSN
10/12/19 Kent State Akron 3:30 PM ESPN3
10/12/19 Northern Illinois Ohio 3:30 PM ESPN+
10/12/19 UConn Tulane 3:45 PM ESPNU
10/12/19 Texas Tech Baylor 4:00 PM
10/12/19 San Jose State Nevada 4:00 PM
10/12/19 UNLV Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN
10/12/19 Iowa State West Virginia 4:00 PM ESPN
10/12/19 Rhode Island Virginia Tech 4:00 PM ACCN
10/12/19 Middle Tennessee Florida Atlantic 4:00 PM ESPN+
10/12/19 Georgia State Coastal Carolina 5:00 PM ESPN+
10/12/19 UAB UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN+
10/12/19 Army Western Kentucky 7:00 PM
10/12/19 UMass Louisiana Tech 7:00 PM ESPN3
10/12/19 North Texas Southern Mississippi 7:00 PM
10/12/19 Fresno State Air Force 7:00 PM CBSSN
10/12/19 Ole Miss Missouri 7:00 PM ESPN2
10/12/19 Charlotte Florida International 7:00 PM ESPN+
10/12/19 USC Notre Dame 7:30 PM NBC
10/12/19 Penn State Iowa 7:30 PM ABC
10/12/19 Louisville Wake Forest 7:30 PM ACCN
10/12/19 Nebraska Minnesota 7:30 PM
10/12/19 Arkansas Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN
10/12/19 Navy Tulsa 7:30 PM ESPNU
10/12/19 Florida LSU 8:00 PM ESPN
10/12/19 Utah Oregon State 8:00 PM PAC12
10/12/19 Hawai'i Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN2
10/12/19 Wyoming San Diego State 10:30 PM CBSSN
10/12/19 Washington Arizona 11:00 PM

Mid-Season Replacement QBs in Their Second Start

We’ve mentioned the struggles Vol quarterbacks faced when making their first start in the middle of a season: Jarrett Guarantano, Josh Dobbs, Nathan Peterman, and Justin Worley all failed to lead a touchdown drive in their first appearance as a starter. Brian Maurer passed that test with flying colors. So, what do mid-season replacements tend to do in their second start?

Guarantano’s second start was at #1 Alabama in 2017. It’s an unfair data point, but here it is anyway: 9-of-16 (56.3%) for 44 yards (2.8 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception. For the third game in a row and the second under Guarantano, the Vols failed to score an offensive touchdown (though Rashaan Gaulden got six points and two digits).

If you’ll allow game three, Guarantano got much better. At Kentucky the following Saturday, he was 18-of-23 (78.3%) for 242 yards (10.5 ypa). He didn’t throw a touchdown (or an interception), but Ty Chandler did crack the end zone twice. The Vols attempted six field goals, Cimaglia made four of them, but Kentucky prevailed 29-26.

In 2013, Josh Dobbs also went from the frying pan to the fire in his second start. After failing to produce a touchdown drive in a 31-3 loss at #9 Missouri, the Vols returned home to play #9 Auburn. Dobbs’ numbers were about the same: 16-of-25 (64%) for 128 yards (5.1 ypa) with no touchdowns and an interception, plus 10 carries for 50 yards. The Vols did take a 13-6 lead on the first play of the second quarter on a Rajion Neal run, then used a pick six just before halftime to close within 27-20. But Auburn finished the game on a 28-3 run.

Justin Worley’s second start came against MTSU in 2011, a 2-10 Blue Raiders squad. In the frat house kicker game – shout out Derrick Brodus and Alcoa High School – Worley went 23-of-32 (71.9%) for 291 yards (9.1 ypa) with a touchdown in a 24-0 victory.

So the good news: no one got worse. Guarantano played Bama but was much better in start three, Dobbs played two top ten teams and was about the same, Worley was much better against a bad team. That’s a good precedent for Maurer, who gets to take a breath between Georgia and Alabama in what’s become a big game against Mississippi State. His first start already exceeded historical expectations. The same history says he doesn’t have to take a step backward in start number two.

Read: The Georgia good and bad

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from The Athletic:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Kick time, TV set for Tennessee’s game at Alabama, via 247Sports. It’s 9:00 on ESPN. Wait, what? 9:00?!
  2. Report of skirmish on Tennessee sideline had Pruitt ‘fired up’, via 247Sports
  3. Pruitt updates Tennessee’s injuries coming out of Georgia game, via 247Sports
  4. Pruitt searching for ways to fix Vols’ second-half woes, via 247Sports
  5. Two Men’s Basketball Games Already Sellouts – University of Tennessee Athletics, via UTSports. Auburn and Kentucky already gone.

Tennessee-Mississippi State: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the corollary rankings for Mississippi State. If the numbers hold, Maurer shouldn’t be too pressed for time, the Vols defense will have its hands full against the Bulldogs’ run game but shouldn’t have to worry too much about the passing game, and Tennessee could have some opportunities in the game’s third phase.

Vols on offense

If there’s anything happy for the Vols here, it’s that Mississippi State doesn’t appear to be a threat behind our own line of scrimmage, so Maurer should have time to throw and the running backs should have some opportunity to get headed in the right direction before meeting up with the defense.

The Bulldogs are good on both third and fourth downs, though, and they’re stingy in the red zone, and none of these are things Tennessee’s well equipped to do anything about.

Other than that, Mississippi State appears to have advantages in most of the defensive categories, but they are only slight.

Vols on defense

The Bulldogs do not appear to be much of a threat on offense, and they are particularly bad in the passing game. Their numbers make them look like a one-dimensional running team, so the winning strategy would seem to be selling out to stop the run.

Special teams

The bad news is that Tennessee’s special teams regressed last week against Georgia. The good news is that they have a long way to fall to be as bad as Mississippi State, whose numbers suggest that they’ve been struggling on special teams for most of the 2019 season. There are some serious opportunities for the Vols on kickoff and punt returns.

Turnovers and penalties

Both teams look about equal in the penalty department, but the Bulldogs look much better at protecting the ball and taking it from their opponents.

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after Georgia


After playing one of the best teams in the country, the Tennessee defense dropped a bit in the NCAA’s official stat categories, but the offense actually had some positive movement.

Offense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Completion Percentage

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

Honestly, these trends are not bad after playing one of the nation’s best defenses. Need a better run game and more points.

Defense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Fell out of the Top 30: Team Passing Efficiency Defense, Passing Yards Allowed.

Kind of what you’d expect against an elite offense.

Special Teams

Punting has been a strength of the team most of the season, but punting was bad enough in just this one game to drop it from No. 2 in the nation two games ago all the way to No. 50 now.

Turnovers and Penalties

Not a lot of movement on penalties this week, but the team lost some ground on turnovers.

Vols Need Playmakers. Period.

When looking at Tennessee’s current commitment list as well as the realistic targets on the board as of early October, what stands out is how heavily tilted towards the defensive side of the ball those lists in total are. Four of the top five commitments (of 14 in total) as ranked by 247Sports are defensive players, and, importantly, it is isn’t so difficult to find upwards of 8-10 realistic and high quality targets that the Vols could close with on defense, each of whom would upgrade their respective positions. 

On the flip side, as deficient at Tennessee’s roster is when compared to top flight SEC teams overall, what always stands out to the naked eye is the lack of dynamic playmaker the Vols have on offense.  Yes, Tennessee has a nice corps of WRs, but not only are a large portion of them seniors but also none of them are true gamebreakers.  Similarly, Tennessee’s RB room includes some good talent, but only Eric Gray is a) young, and b) realistically has gamebreaking potential.  One could argue Ty Chandler does too, but in the end he’s just not the kind of RB who is going to take over a game, and he’s also set to enter his final season in 2020.  When it comes to Tennessee’s 2020 recruiting class, there is some good news and some bad news when it comes to addressing this dearth of playmakers.  The good news starts with UT’s commitment from one of the top QBs in the country in Harrison Bailey, who projects  as the kind of triggerman that just makes an entire offense run and look better.  Further, the Vols also have commitments from three really good looking WR/ATH prospects.  Jalin Hyatt is a track star whose senior film is so strong that Alabama has started sniffing around.  Similarly, Jimmy Calloway’s performance has drawn an offer from Oklahoma.  And while Darion Williamson – the most likely of the trio to be cataloged as an “Athlete” due to his large size at 6’3 and over 200 lbs – hasn’t received that kind of recruiting attention, he’s nevertheless clearly a top-shelf athlete with outstanding potential as a big WR with good-to-great speed.  At the same time, Tennessee is firmly in the mix for two 5-star WRs in Rakim Jarrett (an LSU commitment who is taking an Alabama OV this month) and Arik Gilbert (for whom the Vols could be fading but won’t give up on until someone else sees a fax come through).  dpriority4

However, it must be said that the Vols will definitely have to fight to hold onto Hyatt and perhaps to a larger extent Calloway – noted as such because Hyatt’s parents have been public about him being a firm commitment while Calloway has made public comments that he’s less than 100% committed and is interested in taking other visits, to OU and even UK, although his presence at the UGA was a good sign.  At the same time, not only are the Vols potentially fighting an uphill battle for the aforementioned Jarrett and Gilbert, who are elite talents for sure, but both of them are on the bigger side and could potentially end up a more similar than not to a guy like Josh Palmer that’s already on the roster – big and physical with some real speed but maybe not a true threat to turn a 5-yard out and make it into an 80-yard TD.  Hyatt and Calloway do look like those kinds of players, but put simply the Vols need more of them, both at the WR spot as well as at RB, where their one commitment Tee Hodge is much more of a bruiser (and a potentially very good one, at that, which is why Wisconsin still isn’t giving up on him).  Unfortunately Tennessee’s board just doesn’t have a ton of that kind of player on there right now. 

That said, there are some players who the Vols have been recruiting throughout the process but as of yet haven’t pressed for that they could and perhaps should circle back on.  Each of them are the kind of player described above, and although some of them are committed elsewhere the Vols could potentially reinsert themselves into the respective recruitments should they turn up the heat: 0

ATH Jimmy Holiday, from Madison Central HS in Mississippi, is a TCU commitment who the Tennessee staff circled back on during its bye week.  Holiday, who the Horn Frogs are recruiting as a QB, is ~6’0, 180 pounds who put up the 7th best overall SPARQ score at a Nike Regional event over the summer that included over 300 other prospects, running a sub-4.4 40-yard dash.  What do you think of when you think about a TCU offense?  Smaller, shifty WRs who are borderline unguardable and very difficult to get down when they have the ball in space – Holiday fits that bill.  With the Vols theoretically in the market for a 2nd QB in this class anyway, a multi-purpose player who could have a package as a freshman QB and also help as a WR could be what Tennessee is looking for.  Expect the Vols to try and get Holiday, who has expressed a willingness to take some trips, to Knoxville for an official visit before the December signing period

WR Khi Mathieu is a Memphis commitment from New Orleans who received a relatively early Vol offer but ultimately chose the Tigers over fellow AAC schools like local Tulane, etc, who were truly pushing at the time.  Matheiu, the cousin of the famous Honey Badger, is a very good athlete who’s less known for elite speed and more known for his leaping ability and balls skills both in the air and after the catch.  While Memphis may be a Group of Five program just a few years removed from being alternatively a complete afterthought and also a laughingstock, under Coach Mike Norvell they have produced some explosive offenses built around this kind of playmaker.  Notably, he hails from St Augustine HS, where current Vols RB Coach David Johnson was the head coach in the not-too-distant past – this connection is what drew the two parties together initially and what could, should the Vols choose, get them back in it. 

RB Michael Drennen II is a 4-star All-Purpose Back from Ohio who right now has Kentucky and Ohio State as his top two choices.  The 5’11, 200 pound prospect has played multiple positions during his high school career and is an explosive playmaker all over the field.  The Vols were in a smallish top group he named not too long ago but so far haven’t gotten much traction.  From this vantage point Tennessee’s best bet is to have the Buckeyes be unwilling to take him due to space constraints and then turn up the heat in order to beat out a perennial doormat in Kentucky. 

Other dynamic offensive prospects the Vols could still get (more) involved with include WR Dazalin Worsham, a former Alabama commitment; WR Kris Abrams-Draine, an Ole Miss commitment who at one time had the Vols as his leader before they slowed things down a bit; and RB Jahmry Gibbs from Dalton, GA who’s in the middle of a ridiculous senior season that has drawn attention from college football’s biggest players but who to-date hasn’t seen much interest from Tennessee.  Tennessee could also look to the JUCO ranks later in the cycle, and of course could also dip into the grad transfer market later on.  However they go about it, the Tennessee staff simply must upgrade its roster from a playmaker perspective, and enlarging its board of prospects is the first step towards making that happen. lsdpriority50