Gameday on Rocky Top

Beware: Weirdness afoot.

Tennessee opened as a 10.5-point favorite over the UAB Blazers this week, and since then it’s bounced around between 9.5 and 12.5. Currently, it’s Vols -12. So . . . will the Vols cover against UAB?

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

After three straight weeks of being over 55% (and notching nearly 64% last week), the SPM fell victim to the turf monster last week and went 25-30 (45.45%) overall. Over our confidence threshold, it went 9-11 (45%), and in our pre-defined favorites range, it went 6-5 (54.55%). This week, we tracked both Vegas and non-Vegas lines, and essentially, there was only a one-game difference between those two sets of data.

For the season, the SPM now sits at 223-217 (50.68%) overall, 99-80 (55.31%) over the confidence threshold, and 55-32 (63.22%) in our favorites range.

I’m officially now regretting my early-season decision to include the overall SPM stuff with the weekly Tennessee statsy preview because the SPM is TERRIBLE at Vols games. It again got the Tennessee game wrong last week, the third week in a row it’s whiffed on the Vols. And it’s going to make itself look downright stupid this week. I consoling myself with constant reminders that the Vols have everybody else confused, too, including Vegas.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-UAB game this week? Ahem . . .

Vols-Blazers

Okay, first, the SPM’s opinion on the Vols-Blazers game this weekend should be mostly ignored. The only reason I’m even posting this is (1) in the interest of full disclosure and to avoid allegations of cherry-picking, and (2) because of that word “mostly.”

Full disclosure

Without going through the full analysis, I’m just going to tell you that the SPM has UAB winning this game by 16.2 points. This actually provides an excellent illustration of why you can’t just assume that the machine gets more reliable the more it diverges from the Vegas line. The truth is that there is a sweet spot. The results generally get more reliable the more they diverge from the Vegas line, but only up to a point. If they diverge too much, it’s more an indication that it is not reliable because something is very, very wrong.

So what’s wrong? This is a whole different neighborhood, man.

Those of you who’ve been reading for some time know that the SPM is a comps system. While other systems rank teams based on how good they are and then make predictions based on those relative rankings, the SPM uses comparables to make predictions, and the comps are just no good this week. To UAB, the Vols defense looks most like Rice and Old Dominion and the offense looks like Western Kentucky and UTSA. To drive the point home a bit more, from Tennessee’s perspective, UAB’s defense looks like Florida and Alabama and its offense looks like South Carolina and Florida.

As odd as that looks, there’s good reason for it. UAB’s stats put them right alongside those teams in the national rankings. The problem is that those stats have been compiled against nothing but terrible competition. As I said in that earlier post, Tennessee strength of schedule is currently ranked 12th, and UAB’s is ranked 130th. And as @Alyas Grey said in this terrific comment, wins and losses aren’t the only issues. You can’t compare Manhattan commercial real estate to a duplex in Podunk, Alabama. Well, you can, but you’ll end up with UAB winning by 16 points.

Configuring the SPM to account for that will have to be an offseason project. For now, we’ll just have to mostly ignore it on those rare occasions when it spits out something funny.

That word “mostly”

But I say “mostly ignore” because all of that might also be hinting at something we’re all missing. There are two sides to this problem, and our tendency is to intensely scrutinize only one side of that coin while ignoring the other.

If you don’t know how good a team is because they haven’t played anybody, you can’t just conclude that they are no good. If you don’t know how good they are, you don’t know how good they are. They could be worse than they look, but they could also be better than you’re giving them credit for.

The Blazers’ 6-1 record so far in 2019 is not unexpected. After finishing our magazine this spring, I wondered whether the Vols’ toughest non-conference opponent would be BYU or UAB. So, while we’re dismissing their schedule, we’d do well to give some weight to their resume.

SPM Final Estimates

For the record (and in case you skipped everything else, I’m putting it here: This is likely to be really wrong):

SPM Final estimated score: UAB 30, Tennessee 13.8

SPM Final estimated spread: UAB -16.2

SPM Confidence level (difference from the opening spread): 26.7

One more time with feeling: That 26.7 “confidence” level is so high that it signals serious wonkiness, that you should not be confident in it. Yes, I should rename it something other than “confidence level.”

Eyeball adjustments

What do we do about all of this? The Blazers haven’t ventured out of Podunk so far this year, but they did head to the big city once last year when they played Texas A&M at College Station. Despite finishing the 2018 season 11-3, they lost to the Aggies 41-20. The SPM says that if those two teams played today, the score would be Blazers 25.1, Aggies 24.8. Occam says that’s wrong by three touchdowns.

If the SPM is similarly wrong about the Vols-Blazers, that would make it Vols by 5. Combine that with the fact that the SPM has been wrong on the Vols for three weeks in a row now, presumably due to the fact that it doesn’t recognize that they’re improving every week, and I’d bump that up another touchdown. Let’s say Vols by 12, maybe.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 28, UAB 17. I think the Vols cover the opening spread of Tennessee -10.5, but I don’t think they cover the current spread of Tennessee -12.

Other predictions from other systems

With the current spread at Tennessee -12 and an over/under of 48, that translates to something like Tennessee 30, UAB 18.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols an 88.3% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Vols 27-18, and gives them a 70% chance of winning. That’s picking the Vols not to cover.

SP+ broke even last week. According to Bill’s Twitter timeline, SP+ went 27-27-1 (50%). It’s still at an impressive 55% for the season.

As I said earlier, our SPM is now 223-217 (50.68%) on the season and 55-32 (63.22%) in our favored range.

Bottom line

The SPM does not like the Vols to cover this week but lacks credibility on the Vols generally right now and in this game in particular. Using my own eyes, I like the Vols by 11, which means I think they’ll cover the opening spread of -10.5 but not the current spread of -12.

What do y’all think?

The Tennessee Volunteers kick off against the UAB Blazers at 7:00 p.m. this Saturday on ESPNU, but what about all of the other games? Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Friday, November 1, 2019

Gameday, November 2, 2019

At noon, there are a couple of Top 25 teams in action, but really they’re just appetizers for the main event at 3:30 when No. 8 Georgia and No. 6 Florida meet up to decide who’s going to win the SEC East. There are other games on in the afternoon slot, too, but hey, if you want to watch Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, feel free, but I’m not going to recommend it.

The Vols kick off against UAB at 7:00 on ESPNU, and if you are so inclined, you can DVR Vandy-South Carolina to get a better bead on the upcoming game against the Commodores.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

ESPN’s FPI projects the Vols to finish with 5.5 regular season wins. At the moment, bowl eligibility is – barely but fairly! – the most likely outcome. You can do your own math with our expected win total machine, but most of us are coming in on the right side of six wins. And thanks to Missouri’s struggles against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, seven wins – the very 7-5 finish many of us picked at the start of the season – suddenly feels like it’s on the table too.

FPI will cool those jets, giving Tennessee just an 11.2% chance of winning out. This season should’ve taught us not to get ahead of ourselves when it comes to the Vols, and no one should be taking anyone for granted. UAB opened as a 13-point underdog, and by Tuesday it’s already 10. Vegas has underestimated the Vols by a combined 54 points in the last three weeks. I’d love to make it four. But Tennessee needs to take things one Saturday at a time.

For the rest of us, however, let’s consider the following possibility:

• Alabama and LSU both make the College Football Playoff
• The Sugar Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team, probably the Florida/Georgia winner
• The Florida/Georgia loser wins out, finishes 10-2, and is ranked high enough in the CFP poll to earn an at-large bid to the New Year’s Six
• The Citrus Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team, probably Auburn

That scenario plays out in Banner Society’s bowl projections; Jason Kirk has been one of the very best (by being one of the most realistic) in those projections for a long time. He doesn’t have Tennessee bowl eligible, so let’s hope that part is unrealistic. But if all of the above plays out, the SEC’s Group of Six bowls would be choosing between a Texas A&M team who finishes at Georgia and at LSU, Kentucky (FPI projects at 7-5), Missouri if they’re eligible, and – if they can get to six wins – Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

It’s a nice, neat group of six if everyone is eligible. But FPI projects South Carolina to come up short, and Missouri is still ineligible at the moment. It could be that those six bowls are choosing between A&M, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Tennessee. A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year, Mississippi State in the Outback.

If the Vols are 7-5 on a five -game winning streak? It ain’t gonna be the Liberty Bowl, friends.

Keep taking care of business, and there’s a real chance the Vols could spend January in Florida.

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the corollary rankings for the UAB Blazers.

The first thing to note is this, and we’ll be saying it repeatedly this week: UAB’s strength of schedule is dead last in the FBS, 130th out of 130 teams. Tennessee’s is currently 12th. Therefore, all of the Blazers’ numbers are inflated. The following is presented in the regular format, but any valid takeaways will be in the form of what UAB has been doing well and not doing well against its competition. That information is put alongside what the Vols are and aren’t doing well, but trust the “advantages” information this week at your own risk.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

UAB is apparently not likely to intercept the ball, which is good because last week notwithstanding, the Vols have been a little too generous in that regard.

Where’s the danger?

Once again, last week notwithstanding, the offense has not been the strength of the 2019 Tennessee Volunteers team. On the other hand, UAB’s resume against its current competition has been built on defense, and they are currently ranked in the Top 10 in seven defensive categories. They appear to be equally good defending the run and the pass.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Do what you do best and adjust as the results come in.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

UAB apparently has a fondness for throwing interceptions, which is cool because Tennessee’s defense finds them particularly delicious. The Blazers appear marginally better on offense through the air, so this could be a fun matchup to watch, as they’ll likely lean on their strength but find it much tougher sledding than usual. UAB’s rushing offense doesn’t appear particularly troublesome.

Where’s the danger?

If there’s danger, it appears to be in the passing game, as that’s where they get most of their yards when they’re not throwing it to the other team. They haven’t allowed many sacks, so pressuring the quarterback may prove frustrating.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Play nickel. Intercept when possible, tackle in space if they catch it.

Special teams

I don’t really see much of anything here, although the Vols appear to have the advantage in most of the things that might matter, save net punting.

Turnovers and penalties

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

After a big win against the South Carolina Gamecocks, complete with a bit of an offensive explosion and a second-half defensive shutout, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Passes Had Interception, Total Offense, Red Zone Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, First Downs Offense, Completion Percentage, Passing Offense

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Passing Yards per Completion

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing

Moderate improvement almost across the board last week, which is a good result against a good defense.

Defense

Currently doing well: Intercepting passes

Needs attention: First Downs Defense, 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense, Tackles for Loss

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Mostly holding steady or slightly improving in most defensive categories.

Special Teams

Currently doing well: Punt Returns (woo!), Blocked Punts (woo!!), Kickoff Return Defense, Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Net Punting, Kickoff Returns, Punt Return Defense

Weirdness. Tennessee’s really good at some things on special teams, but some areas we thought would be strengths (punting, primarily) are faltering. Somebody call the Colquitt Helpline.

Turnovers and Penalties

Currently doing well: Um . . .

Needs attention: Turnovers lost

On turnovers, the team appears good at getting, but bad at giving. Penalties were good early, but are oddly getting worse as the team is improving. I’m guessing there might be some sweet spot with penalties. You want to play both clean and aggressive, but those things may sometimes be at odds with each other.