Tennessee Basketball Preview

Here’s the jump now: from a team to a program.

It’s teams, plural, the last two years. Because Tennessee’s DNA in 2018 & 2019 wasn’t made out of freshmen but upperclassmen, we got two cycle-up years. The Vols won an SEC title, spent more than a month at number one, tied for the program’s highest NCAA Tournament seed, made the Sweet 16, and gave four of its players a chance in the NBA. That list is, in order: hadn’t done in ten years, never before, never better, hadn’t in five years, and never before.

To ensure it’s not never again, Tennessee’s challenge is transitioning from “Grant Williams and those guys” to Tennessee Basketball. Living into an expectation they’re paying Rick Barnes to fulfill. The foundation is strong, and the future is bright with Barnes bringing more talent to Knoxville than literally ever before. It’s tempting to call this a bridge year then, but that’s the thing about building a program: the goal doesn’t change year-to-year.

The faces always do; even last year we learned teams are never exactly the same no matter how many of those faces return. In 2018 the Vols made their way up the ladder with unbelievable defense, finishing sixth in KenPom on that end of the floor. We assumed it would be the same story last season, then the Vols unleashed the third-best offense in college basketball, while the defense “slipped” to 42nd.

The assumption leans offense again this season: 19th there, 38th defensively, 20th overall in the KenPom preseason ratings. It may have to if Uros Plavsic (Ü-rosh PLÄV-chich) doesn’t win the appeal behind door number three. Either way, it’ll be both interesting and fun to see how all the pieces fit.

The most intriguing question is, of course, “How good is Josiah James?” That’s the nature of signing the program’s first five-star in six years. But I think the most important question is, “What can Yves Pons give Tennessee at the four?”

Last season Pons saw double-digit minutes through the non-conference portion of the schedule, an intriguing option to cause disruption in the back-court to fill a bench void left by James Daniel. A sign of Barnes’ maturity: making a lineup tweak in the midst of a 19-game winning streak. In the second half of January Pons’ minutes dropped to 10-14 per game, and by February he was backed way down to single digits, taking a pair of DNP’s against Florida and Auburn and playing only 11 minutes in three NCAA Tournament games.

The Vols didn’t need him in that forward spot last year when Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Kyle Alexander were around. But this time – especially if Plavsic is out and Fulkerson has to live at the five – it would make things much simpler and the Vols more dangerous if Pons can be the answer at the four.

The back-court assumption is Bowden, Turner, and James, with the five-star playing point guard when Lamonte isn’t. Jalen Johnson is available to fill in that rotation as well. Fulkerson and Plavsic, if eligible, can give you post minutes. Pons would make for a tight seven-man rotation when you need it, giving the other freshmen a chance to ease into things.

Those other freshmen include Olivier Nkamhoua (OH-liv-ee-AY KAHM-wuh) from Finland and Drew Pember from Bearden, both in that 6’8″-6’9″ range. Nkamhoua played 17 minutes in the exhibition win, Pember 10, while Fulkerson and Pons each played 20. And there’s also 6’11” Zach Kent, a redshirt sophomore who’s appeared in two games in his Tennessee career. If you don’t see Plavsic, odds are you will see him; he logged 14 minutes in the exhibition.

Exhibitions don’t matter much, and I’m not sure the opener tonight will either. UNC-Asheville went 21-13 in 2018, and when Kermit Davis took the Ole Miss job, Nicholas McDevitt left Asheville for Murfreesboro. Year one for Mike Morrell: 4-27 and a 347th-place finish in KenPom, with their only two Division I wins coming against 336th-place USC Upstate. There’s no Ja Morant next week, but you’ll probably have to wait for Murray State to form any kind of actual opinion. But from there, the Vols go to Toronto to face Washington (a convenient 5:00 PM tip-off next Saturday when the football team is on a bye).

The last time we were building a program under Bruce Pearl, the Vols followed multiple departures in iconic seasons in 2008 & 2010 with appearances in the 8/9 game in 2009 & 2011. That’s the same neighborhood this team finds itself in if you value preseason projections. KenPom projects the Vols to go 20-10 (11-7) and finish tied for second in the SEC with Florida, behind Kentucky (projected 14-4). Look for the first edition of the Bracket Matrix here on Tuesday; Joe Lunardi has the Vols as a nine seed in his final preseason projection.

The Vols are paying to play in the top tier now; the results the last two seasons and the recruiting going forward already belong there. On the way, I wouldn’t expect a 19-game winning streak this season. But part of the fun of being this kind of program is the expectation that you’ll be there in March; I’m excited (and curious!) to see what their best basketball looks like between now and then. This team’s role in solidifying the program as more than a couple great years is significant. And part of being that kind of program is no individual team has to live in the past or anxiously await the future. This team can win. I can’t wait to see how they do it.

It starts at 7:00 PM ET tonight on ye olde SEC Network+. Welcome back, basketball.

Go Vols.

Read: Chill on Guarantano

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Guarantano reveals why he wouldn’t let hand injury sideline him, via 247Sports
  2. How the Uros Plavsic ruling changes Tennessee’s frontcourt, via 247Sports
  3. Vols report card: UAB, via 247Sports
  4. Game Balls: Tennessee 30, UAB 7, via 247Sports
  5. From GA to DC, Ansley keeps coming up big for Pruitt, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

Tennessee 30 UAB 7 – Hope vs The Home Stretch

It’s easy, and perhaps now natural, to take a Tennessee performance like this against a group-of-five school and lament what it wasn’t. A hallmark of Tennessee’s post-2007 swoon is some combination of inability and unwillingness to dominate mid-majors. Starting with a four-point win over Northern Illinois and a loss to Wyoming in 2008, every single season has included a “meh” moment. Some calls are closer than others: UAB in 2010, Troy in 2012, South Alabama in 2013, UMass in 2017, and of course Georgia State in September. But these years also include plenty of scores like 24-0 over North Texas, 28-19 over Ohio, and 14-3 over Charlotte last year.

UAB was 6-1 and 16-3 over its last 19, but it was clear from the outset the 2019 Blazers were painfully short on competition. Tennessee’s defense dominated, included a record-tying performance from Bryce Thompson. Tennessee’s offense had their moments, but didn’t capitalize the way you wanted with such great field position. The red zone performance was more of the unfortunate same: five trips but only three touchdowns, leaving the Vols with only 14 touchdowns on 32 trips this season, 126th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)

That remains Tennessee’s greatest statistical weakness, and an important one in these last three games. The decision to play Jarrett Guarantano most of the night, even with a surgically-repaired non-throwing hand, resurfaced some of our anxiety at quarterback after a brief spark from Brian Maurer and, truly, one of the best passing performances of the decade from Guarantano and J.T. Shrout just last week. Last night’s performance makes last week look even better, but mixes in old fears with new hopes.

But viewed through the lens of the entire season, Tennessee is still moving hard and fast in the right direction. In that long list of mid-major disappointments, you get lines like -22.5 in a 14-3 win over Charlotte, -28 in a 17-13 win over UMass, -27 in a 28-19 win over Ohio, etc.

Last night, due both to Tennessee’s start and UAB’s consistency, the Vols were only -13.5, and won by 23. The Vols have now covered the spread four weeks in a row for the first time since 2010, and just the 10th time in the last 35 years (closing lines via covers.com). Tennessee made it five weeks in a row at the end of the 2010 regular season thanks to Tyler Bray, who helped the Vols cover in defeat at South Carolina, then went 4-0 straight up and against Vegas in November. Before that, the last time Tennessee covered five straight weeks: the first five games of 1998.

Vegas, like the rest of us, hasn’t had a good feel for Tennessee all year. The Vols were overvalued by 62.5 points in their first four FBS games, and have now been undervalued by 61 points in the last four games. It’s a tangible sign of an actual turnaround. But the Vols have to get this thing to six wins to still call it that in the off-season.

Tennessee was 4-5 headed into this stretch last season, but got what felt like a revelation in the 24-7 win over #12 Kentucky. And then it turned out the prophets were false.

This time, there will be no revelations unless Missouri creates one first: Kentucky is 4-4, Missouri 5-3 and set to face Georgia and Florida back-to-back, and Vanderbilt is 2-6. The journey ventured through the upside-down, but the end result we wanted in preseason – rise above the SEC East’s second tier, close the gap on your biggest rivals – is here for the taking. The turnaround narrative – and its chance to last us all off-season, and spend eight months thinking about what will be instead of what could’ve been – is alive. Whether the Vols cover or not, play Guarantano or not, or any number of the uncertainties that have defined this season, the Vols need two wins in three games. Three in three, and I still believe the Vols can be in line for a much nicer bowl opportunity than we thought even in preseason.

Hope lives, even if we saw some glimpses of what tried to take it away against UAB. The Vols still played better than expected all things considered, and by Vegas’ standards have done so more consistently now than in nine years. The margins remain small and the questions many, but for the last month Tennessee has found the right answer again and again. Hope lives. It should probably hang on tight.

Go Vols.

Claireb7tx wins Week 10 of the 2019 GRT Pick ‘Em, birdjam takes season-lead

Congratulations to claireb7tx, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 16-4 and 194 confidence points.

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 claireb7tx 16-4 194 0-0
2 birdjam 17-3 189 13-31
3 boro wvvol 17-3 188 17-31
4 C_hawkfan 18-2 186 16-30**
4 ctull 17-3 186 14-35
4 Wilk21 17-3 186 14-38
7 Hjohn 16-4 185 7-31**
7 Harley 16-4 185 13-31
7 dgibbs 17-3 185 13-33
7 Orange On Orange 15-5 185 20-34
11 hounddog3 16-4 183 14-35**
11 Displaced_Vol_Fan 16-4 183 13-38
11 trdlgmsr 15-5 183 14-38
14 corn from a jar 15-5 182 10-31**
14 jfarrar90 18-2 182 13-31
16 LuckyGuess 16-4 181 13-27**
16 GeorgeMonkey 16-4 181 17-27
18 wedflatrock 15-5 180 6-27
19 waitwhereami 15-5 178 9-31**
19 memphispete 15-5 178 14-45
19 UTSeven 15-5 178 17-48
19 Hixson Vol1 15-5 178 0-0
23 PAVolFan 15-5 177 14-28**
23 rollervol 16-4 177 17-35
25 DinnerJacket 13-7 176 10-31**
25 Jahiegel 15-5 176 18-30
25 Rossboro 16-4 176 0-49
25 PensacolaVolFan 16-4 176 10-40
25 joeb_1 14-6 176 23-30
25 ltvol99 15-5 176 21-38
31 daetilus 14-6 175 17-28**
31 mariettavol 14-6 175 18-37
33 HUTCH 15-5 173 10-13
34 keepontruckin 13-7 172 17-34**
34 Crusher 16-4 172 24-35
36 Joel @ GRT 15-5 170 17-28**
36 patmd 15-5 170 17-34
36 Anaconda 14-6 170 24-35
39 tbone 14-6 169 17-31**
39 ddayvolsfan 15-5 169 27-31
41 cnyvol 14-6 167 17-37**
41 ChuckieTVol 15-5 167 13-45
43 doritoscowboy 16-4 166 0-0
44 Phonies 13-7 165 30-27
45 Bulldog 85 14-6 164 20-37**
45 Sam 12-8 164 0-0
47 Raven17 12-8 162 10-34
48 alanmar 14-6 156 24-27**
48 Knottfair 14-6 156 17-38
50 TennRebel 14-6 153 10-24
51 ga26engr 12-8 152 13-32
52 vols95 12-8 147 17-35
53 bluelite 10-10 146 17-35
54 Jayyyy 11-9 143 17-30
55 rsbrooks25 13-7 140 17-35
56 Timbuktu126 13-7 137 7-14**
56 TennVol95 in 3D! 13-7 137 17-42
58 Neil Neisner 12-8 132 28-31
59 mmmjtx 12-8 126 10-27
60 jeremy.waldroop 0-20 125 0-0**
60 Aaron Birkholz 0-20 125 -
60 mmb61 0-20 125 -
60 UTVols18 0-20 125 -
60 Salty Seth 0-20 125 -
60 Teri28 0-20 125 -
60 Will Shelton 0-20 125 -
60 tpi 0-20 125 -
60 aaron217 0-20 125 -
60 If you ain’t first you’re 0-20 125 -
60 tallahasseevol 0-20 125 -
60 waltsspac 0-20 125 -
60 Willewillm 0-20 125 -
60 Orange Swarm 0-20 125 -
60 Dmorton 0-20 125 -
60 RockyPopPicks 0-20 125 -
60 VillaVol 0-20 125 -
60 Jrstep 0-20 125 -
60 ed75 0-20 125 -
60 rockytopinKy 0-20 125 -
60 OriginalVol1814 0-20 125 -
60 BristVol 0-20 125 -
60 orange_devil87 0-20 125 -
60 VFL49er 0-20 125 -
60 ddutcher 0-20 125 -
60 BZACHARY 0-20 125 -
60 Caban Greys 0-20 125 -
60 cactusvol 0-20 125 -
60 Techboy 0-20 125 -
60 JLPasour 0-20 125 -

Old friend birdjam sneaks into a one-point lead lead for the season with a record of 140-60 and 1644 confidence points.

Rank Player W-L % Points
1 birdjam 140-60 70.00 1644
2 wedflatrock 140-60 70.00 1643
3 PAVolFan 142-58 71.00 1638
3 GeorgeMonkey 140-60 70.00 1638
5 corn from a jar 136-64 68.00 1622
6 LuckyGuess 136-64 68.00 1611
7 memphispete 139-61 69.50 1609
8 C_hawkfan 146-54 73.00 1606
9 Hixson Vol1 140-60 70.00 1597
10 joeb_1 133-67 66.50 1595
11 jfarrar90 133-67 66.50 1588
12 Displaced_Vol_Fan 135-65 67.50 1577
13 Raven17 133-67 66.50 1576
14 hounddog3 135-65 67.50 1575
15 ChuckieTVol 139-61 69.50 1572
16 alanmar 135-65 67.50 1569
17 Orange On Orange 132-68 66.00 1565
17 cnyvol 137-63 68.50 1565
19 waitwhereami 136-64 68.00 1564
19 TennRebel 131-69 65.50 1564
19 Joel @ GRT 136-64 68.00 1564
22 Knottfair 132-68 66.00 1559
23 boro wvvol 130-70 65.00 1558
24 DinnerJacket 133-67 66.50 1557
25 UTSeven 124-76 62.00 1554
26 Harley 135-65 67.50 1553
27 Phonies 132-68 66.00 1552
28 trdlgmsr 129-71 64.50 1546
29 Anaconda 122-78 61.00 1543
30 daetilus 125-75 62.50 1535
31 Bulldog 85 132-68 66.00 1532
32 ga26engr 135-65 67.50 1530
33 Rossboro 128-72 64.00 1521
34 mmmjtx 132-68 66.00 1514
35 Sam 133-67 66.50 1504
36 Crusher 131-69 65.50 1503
37 claireb7tx 129-71 64.50 1501
38 mariettavol 119-81 59.50 1500
39 keepontruckin 119-81 59.50 1490
40 ltvol99 139-61 69.50 1488
41 ddayvolsfan 135-65 67.50 1486
42 Neil Neisner 126-74 63.00 1478
43 HUTCH 127-73 63.50 1477
44 doritoscowboy 130-70 65.00 1476
45 ctull 118-82 59.00 1467
46 Jahiegel 123-77 61.50 1464
47 Jayyyy 115-85 57.50 1456
47 jeremy.waldroop 108-92 54.00 1456
49 rsbrooks25 134-66 67.00 1451
50 rollervol 125-75 62.50 1422
51 tbone 122-78 61.00 1420
52 bluelite 121-79 60.50 1410
53 dgibbs 104-96 52.00 1402
54 Wilk21 118-82 59.00 1397
55 TennVol95 in 3D! 115-85 57.50 1390
56 Timbuktu126 107-93 53.50 1359
57 Hjohn 114-86 57.00 1341
58 patmd 116-84 58.00 1323
59 PensacolaVolFan 117-83 58.50 1310
60 VillaVol 103-97 51.50 1295
61 rockytopinKy 95-105 47.50 1290
62 vols95 86-114 43.00 1289
63 Orange Swarm 85-115 42.50 1275
64 Will Shelton 52-148 26.00 1162
65 OriginalVol1814 56-144 28.00 1160
66 aaron217 63-137 31.50 1155
67 BZACHARY 74-126 37.00 1152
68 tpi 54-146 27.00 1097
69 RockyPopPicks 33-167 16.50 1090
70 Willewillm 25-175 12.50 1003
71 Jrstep 34-166 17.00 997
72 BristVol 26-174 13.00 978
73 Dmorton 27-173 13.50 975
74 Caban Greys 13-187 6.50 965
75 tallahasseevol 14-186 7.00 955
76 orange_devil87 15-185 7.50 953
76 JLPasour 14-186 7.00 953
76 If you ain�t first you�re 13-187 6.50 953
79 Aaron Birkholz 13-187 6.50 944
80 ed75 13-187 6.50 940
81 Salty Seth 12-188 6.00 930
82 Techboy 11-189 5.50 929
83 waltsspac 11-189 5.50 926
84 cactusvol 12-188 6.00 920
85 VFL49er 4-196 2.00 869
86 Teri28 5-195 2.50 822
87 mmb61 0-200 0.00 821
87 ddutcher 0-200 0.00 821
87 UTVols18 0-200 0.00 821

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After UAB

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

My assessment

About the Vols: I wouldn’t characterize my concern about UAB this weekend as worry, but I was quite wary. Even that was misplaced, though, as Tennessee looked mostly really good Saturday night against the Blazers. With three games to go, they can afford only one slip up for bowl eligibility, and they have a chance to run the table and meet preseason expectations. If they do that, it will mean that they both lost two games and won two games they shouldn’t have. I’m thinking they have a chance, as it appears they will be favorites against Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and they may well be favorites against Missouri after the Tigers play Georgia and Florida in consecutive weeks.

I’ve made no adjustments this week, but with UAB becoming 100% instead of 70%, I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.9.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6
  • After Week 10: 5.9

Details: I kept everybody right where they were at last week: Kentucky and Missouri at 60%, and Vanderbilt at 70%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 4-5 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-4 (2-4), 6th in the SEC East

Kentucky was off this week while the Vols took on UAB.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-3 (2-2), 3rd in the SEC East

The Tigers were also off this week, but they’re coming off two consecutive losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky and now have two consecutive games against Georgia and Florida. They’re likely to come to Neyland on November 23 hurting, both physically and mentally.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-6 (1-4), 7th in the SEC East

Vanderbilt looked good early this week against South Carolina, but faded fast.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

Off this week.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 4-4

Good win for the Cougars this week against Utah State.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 4-5 (3-2), 4th in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 7-2 (4-2), 2nd in the SEC East

This year’s edition of the Florida-Georgia game was a good one with both teams showing like they deserved their Top 10 rankings.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 7-1 (4-1), 1st in the SEC East

Hard-fought game for Georgia this week against the Gators, but Jake Fromm was money on third down. Former Tennessee tight end Eli Wolf sealed the deal with a huge catch for a first down that allowed the Bulldogs to run out the clock.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West

Kylin Hill, the SEC’s leading rusher, had 21 carries for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Razorbacks this week. Against Tennessee, he had 11 carries for 13 yards. Woo.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-0 (5-0), 1st in the SEC West

Off in advance of a big showdown with LSU next week.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-5 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East

Expected result this week for the Gamecocks.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-2 (3-1), 2nd in C-USA West

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

jfarrar90 takes the lead in the GRT Guessing Game

Here’s the play-by-play for this week’s Guessing Game.

Week 10 – UAB

Round 1

Q: Who wins, and by how much? (30 – 60 points available)

A: Vols, by 22 or more (60 points) (Vols won by 23)

These folks got this right: Jayyyy, Will Shelton, jfarrar90, Harley, Brenna Russell, Isaac Bishop

Mushrooms (10 points): cscott95 and Isaac Bishop 

Bananas (-10 points): Isaac Bishop and LTVol99

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell No. 6 blows up and costs current leader Jayyyy 30 points
  • Blue Shell No. 7: Counter 1
  • New Blue Shell No. 8: Counter 3

Top 10 after Round 1:

  1. Will Shelton
  2. Jayyyy
  3. jfarrar90
  4. Harley
  5. Mitchell K
  6. cscott95
  7. daetilus
  8. PaulS
  9. Brenna Russell
  10. Isaac Bishop

Round 2

Q: What’s the score at halftime? (30 points available)

A: Vols lead by 8 or more (30 points) (Vols 23, UAB 0)

Apparently as easy question, as a bunch of players got this one right: Will Shelton, Jayyyy, jfarrar90, Harley, cscott95, Brenna Russell, Isaac Bishop, Sam Hensley, LTVol99, HixsonVol

Mushrooms (10 points): Jayyyy and cscott95

Bananas (-10 points): Brenna Russell and daetilus

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell No. 7 blows up and costs current leader Will 30 points
  • Blue Shell No. 8: Counter 2
  • No new blue shells
  • HixsonVol gets a bolt and gets 30 points

Top 10 after Round 2:

  1. Jayyyy
  2. jfarrar90
  3. Harley
  4. Will Shelton
  5. cscott95
  6. Mitchell K
  7. Isaac Bishop
  8. Brenna Russell
  9. daetilus
  10. PaulS

Round 3

Q: Who’s the first true quarterback to throw or run for a touchdown for the Vols? (30 – 40 points available)

A: Jarrett Geronimo (30 points)

These guys got this: LTVol99 and HixsonVol

Mushrooms (10 points): Jayyyy and HixsonVol

Bananas (-10 points): Brenna Russell and HixsonVol

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell No. 8: Counter 1
  • No new blue shells or bolts

Top 10 after Round 3:

  1. Jayyyy
  2. jfarrar90
  3. Harley
  4. Will Shelton
  5. cscott95
  6. Mitchell K
  7. Isaac Bishop
  8. Brenna Russell
  9. daetilus
  10. PaulS

The Game Master is officially in last place among people still playing.

Round 4

Q: Who’s the first true running back to score a touchdown for the Vols? (30 – 40 points available)

A: Ty Chandler (30 points)

Points this round go to: Jayyyy, jfarrar90, Will Shelton, cscott95, Brenna Russell

Mushrooms (10 points): Harley and daetilus

Bananas (-10 points): Jayyyy and LTVol99

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell No. 8 blows up and costs current leader Jayyyy another 30 points
  • New Blue Shell No. 9: Counter 3
  • No bolts

Top 10 after Round 3:

  1. jfarrar90
  2. Jayyyy
  3. Will Shelton
  4. cscott95
  5. Harley
  6. Brenna Russell
  7. Mitchell K
  8. Isaac Bishop
  9. daetilus
  10. PaulS

Round 5

Q: Who’s the first WR/TE to catch a touchdown pass for the Vols? (30 points available)

A: No points (No true WR/TE caught a touchdown pass. Huh. Didn’t see that coming.)

Mushrooms (10 points): Jayyyy and Will Shelton

Bananas (-10 points): cscott95 and daetilus

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • New Blue Shell No. 9: Counter 2
  • No new blue shells or bolts

Final Standings After Week 10:

Rank Player Points
1 jfarrar90 293
2 Jayyyy 291
3 Will Shelton 284
4 Harley 268
5 cscott95 258
6 Brenna Russell 215
7 Mitchell K 205
8 Isaac Bishop 204
9 daetilus 185
10 PaulS 185
11 Sam Hensley 180
12 LTVol99 123
13 HixsonVol 100
14 Joel Hollingsworth 80
15 HixsonVol fka MariettaVol 74
16 Alyas Grey 63
17 Hounddog3 35
18 Greenback42c 30
19 Gavin Driskill 25
20 Power TBP 15
21 Clark 0
22 StiflerUncut -3

Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans: UAB

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols (3-5, 2-3) hoping to leverage last week’s big upset over the South Carolina Gamecocks into a November to remember, starting with a win over the UAB Blazers (6-1, 3-1). Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Tennessee-UAB game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best games for Vols fans to watch today

Today’s Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans features the Vols-Blazers on ESPNU at 7:00, but there are several other games of interest to Vols fans as well. Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated with a nice, big spoonful of Big Orange:

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#5 Penn State #13 Minnesota 12:00 PM ABC Live / Channel Hop Top 15 matchup
Vanderbilt #10 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN DVR / Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
AFTERNOON
#1 LSU #2 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Live No. 1 vs. No. 2
EVENING
Missouri #6 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN Live until Vols, then DVR Future Vols opponent
Tennessee Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols!

And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:

Date Away Home Time TV
10/31/19 West Virginia #12 Baylor 8:00 PM ESPN
10/31/19 Georgia Southern #20 Appalachian State 8:00 PM ESPNU
11/1/19 Navy UConn 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 #14 Michigan Maryland 12:00 PM ABC
11/2/19 NC State #23 Wake Forest 12:00 PM ESPN
11/2/19 Houston UCF 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 Buffalo Eastern Michigan 12:00 PM
11/2/19 Northern Illinois Central Michigan 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 Nebraska Purdue 12:00 PM FOX
11/2/19 Boston College Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
11/2/19 UTSA Texas A&M 12:00 PM SECN
11/2/19 Old Dominion Florida International 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Liberty UMass 12:00 PM
11/2/19 Akron Bowling Green 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Virginia Tech #16 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
11/2/19 Troy Coastal Carolina 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/2/19 #8 Georgia #6 Florida 3:30 PM CBS
11/2/19 #22 Kansas State Kansas 3:30 PM FS1
11/2/19 Arkansas State UL Monroe 3:30 PM ESPNU
11/2/19 Marshall Rice 3:30 PM
11/2/19 UTEP North Texas 3:30 PM NFL
11/2/19 Army Air Force 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 Middle Tennessee Charlotte 3:30 PM ESPN3
11/2/19 UNLV Colorado State 3:30 PM
11/2/19 Miami Florida State 3:30 PM ABC
11/2/19 TCU Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ESPN
11/2/19 Rutgers Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
11/2/19 Wofford #4 Clemson 4:00 PM ACCN
11/2/19 #9 Utah Washington 4:00 PM FOX
11/2/19 Mississippi State Arkansas 4:00 PM SECN
11/2/19 Pittsburgh Georgia Tech 4:00 PM ACCNX
11/2/19 Florida Atlantic Western Kentucky 4:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Tulsa Tulane 4:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 Oregon State Arizona 4:30 PM PAC12
11/2/19 Texas State Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/2/19 Ole Miss #11 Auburn 7:00 PM ESPN
11/2/19 #17 Cincinnati East Carolina 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 UAB Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPNU
11/2/19 Northwestern Indiana 7:00 PM FS1
11/2/19 #15 SMU #24 Memphis 7:30 PM ABC
11/2/19 Vanderbilt South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN
11/2/19 Virginia North Carolina 7:30 PM ACCN
11/2/19 #7 Oregon USC 8:00 PM FOX
11/2/19 Colorado UCLA 9:00 PM PAC12
11/2/19 BYU Utah State 10:00 PM ESPN2
11/2/19 #21 Boise State San Jose State 10:30 PM CBSSN
11/2/19 New Mexico Nevada 10:30 PM ESPNU
11/2/19 Fresno State Hawai'i 11:59 PM

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s the GRT Podcast from earlier this week:

And here is Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180.

Pre-game prep

To catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

For Our Next Trick…
Will the Vols cover against UAB?
About That B-Word…
Tennessee-UAB: Head-to-head statistical rankings
Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after South Carolina
Where Does Tennessee Turn Now for Pass-Rushers?
Why It Should Be Darnell Washington or Bust at TE for Tennessee in 2020
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After South Carolina
Great to see all these people out here getting exactly what they deserve

Go Vols!

For Our Next Trick…

If J.T. Shrout attempts four more passes – seems likely at this point – it will be the third time in the post-Fulmer era the Vols had three quarterbacks attempt at least 25 passes. It happened at the end of the disastrous 2017 season via Will McBride (17-of-40 in two appearances). And it happened in the middle of 2011 with Tyler Bray’s broken thumb, and Derek Dooley’s decision to pull Justin Worley’s redshirt. Worley did get a win against MTSU. But in terms of this kind of success against meaningful competition, you have to go back to 2004 with Brent Schaeffer, Erik Ainge, and Rick Clausen.

The 2019 Vols aren’t going to win the SEC East (but we can still Lloyd Christmas it another week if Georgia wins tomorrow!) but can still engineer an incredible turnaround. One way to measure that: what the Vols are currently doing against Vegas. After losing as a 24.5-point favorite to Georgia State and a three-point favorite to BYU, the Vols were +12.5 at Florida and lost by 31. That’s a 57-point swing in the first three FBS games (closing lines via covers.com), plus another five in losing to Georgia by 29 at +24.

Those five points are as close as Vegas has come on any Tennessee game this year. Because since then, the Vols beat Mississippi State as an underdog by 10, covered easily against Alabama, and beat South Carolina as an underdog by 20.

Two wins as an underdog of at least +4 isn’t new: the Vols did that last year against Auburn and Kentucky. But Vegas has now undervalued the Vols by a combined 51.5 points in the last three weeks.

It’s just the fifth time this decade the Vols have covered the spread three weeks in a row. Tennessee did it twice in 2015, and Josh Dobbs did it himself in 2014 (Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky). For the (hopefully) best comparison here, you have to go all the way back to Tyler Bray’s emergence: his appearance at South Carolina in 2010 and subsequent 4-0 run to end the regular season is the last time the Vols covered the spread at least four weeks in a row, getting to five in that run. Tennessee’s 52-14 win over Ole Miss in that stretch when the Vols were just -2.5 is the most I’ve seen UT undervalued this decade.

As the Vols (currently -12) look to make it four in a row this week, the opponent lends itself to additional mystery:

Joel’s statsy preview machine agrees with chaos this week. If you’re looking for regression to the mean, this probably isn’t the week for that since no one really knows what the mean is with UAB. It’s one more element of unpredictability in an already-massively-unpredictable season that might feature three quarterbacks and a wide receiver taking snaps at quarterback.

In such a time as this, the Vols should again look to their defense and run game to carry them; we learned last week that can look much more exciting than you think. Will we get the game we thought we’d see against Georgia State? Will UAB – winners of 16 of their last 19 games! – parlay that spirit into another competitive game? Will the Vols commit to a rotation between quarterbacks (whether it’s all three or only two with Guarantano’s wrist), or start one and ride him as long as he’s hot? Will that kind of plan – one bad throw away from the bench – affect the young quarterbacks?

Bowl expectations are riding high – 5.72 is the updated community average in our expected win total machine – but the most reasonable expectation truly remains the unexpected. Hopefully that manifests itself as another great performance from multiple quarterbacks and another Saturday to celebrate.