Two seasons ago Lamonte Turner splashed 39.5% of his three-point attempts, and went 38-of-84 (45.2%) in conference play, the second-best mark in the league that season (stats via KenPom). It was part of a remarkable shooting run from the 2017-18 Vols, with Admiral Schofield (39.5%), Jordan Bowden (39.5%), and Jordan Bone (38%) pushing Tennessee to shoot 38% from the arc as a team; that’s the best number the Vols put up since Bruce Pearl’s first team hit 38.8% behind 43.7% from Chris Lofton and 42.2% from C.J. Watson.
Last year Turner struggled to get his shoulder right, finishing at 32% from the arc (but still the maker of big shots). The Vols still hit 36.7% as a team, thanks in large part to Schofield’s 42.2%.
So far this season, Turner has been amazing as the point guard: 28 assists in three games, including 14 without a turnover against Murray State, helping the Vols get an assist on 67.8% of their buckets, currently ninth nationally in assist percentage. And Turner played 39 minutes against the Racers and the Huskies, plus 36 in the blowout of UNC Asheville.
The only blemish: a slow start from the arc at 3-of-16. And yet, the Vols are shooting 46.2% from three in the first three games, the third-best percentage in the nation. Bowden is 9-of-14, Yves Pons 5-of-8, Jalen Johnson 3-of-8, Josiah James 2-of-3, Davonte Gaines 1-of-1, and even Zach Kent is in on the action at 1-of-2.
The juxtaposition of Tennessee’s percentage and the number of threes the Vols take is staggering early: third nationally in percentage made, 316th nationally in percentage taken. But it plays into something that happened with Tennessee some last season: even for a good three-point shooting team, too many attempts got the Vols out of their offense and sometimes led to defeat.
Via Sports-Reference, last season the Vols went 4-4 when attempting 24+ threes, and 27-2 when attempting 23 or less. There are a couple of overtimes in those 24+ games that can skew the numbers a tad, but generally Tennessee’s best basketball didn’t include heavy reliance on the three, unless they were going to hit an even more unusually high percentage of them (12-of-29 for 41.4% against #1 Gonzaga).
In Tennessee’s first real test this season against Washington, I wondered if the Vols would go outside more, especially against the Huskies’ interior and facing a zone that can invite deep threes. Bowden and Turner have been around long enough and made enough to get a green light. But instead, the Vols were disciplined and carved up Washington inside the arc, while still splashing 6-of-13 from beyond.
We need more time and more games to see if Yves Pons’ shot is real and if Turner’s shot will come on again. But even without last year’s vets inside, the Vols aren’t falling in love with the three, even if it sure looks like it wants to fall in love with them.
We’ll see if that continues tonight when the #20 Vols take on 0-3 Alabama State (7:00 PM, SEC Network+).
The Tennessee Volunteers kick off in the evening slot this Saturday (7:30 on the SEC Network), but the appetizers start early and keep on coming all week long. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.
The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
7:30 PM
ESPN2
Channel Hop
It's football
Ohio
Bowling Green
7:30 PM
ESPNU
Channel Hop
It's football
Look, it’s Week 13, and football will be gone before you know it. So . . . watch ’em if you got ’em.
I left this here because I was amused that this was the only Friday game and apparently even ESPN+ is washing its hair that night.
Gameday, November 23, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON
#9 Penn State
#2 Ohio State
12:00 PM
FOX
Live
Top 10 matchup
AFTERNOON
Texas A&M
#4 Georgia
3:30 PM
CBS
Channel Hop
Former Vols opponent
East Tennessee State
Vanderbilt
3:30 PM
SEC ALTERNATE
DVR / Check in
Future Vols opponent
#19 Texas
#13 Baylor
3:30 PM
FS1
Channel Hop
Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Tennessee
Missouri
7:30 PM
SECN
Live
Go Vols
Honestly, there’s a lot of garbage on this weekend, and some of it features Top 10 and Top 20 teams. Who between Penn State and Ohio State would you most like to see lose at noon? Ditto in the Big 12 at 3:30 between Texas and Baylor (although now that I write that — Go Bears.) Vanderbilt can’t even get on the regular SEC Network in the afternoon slot, but hey, they might have a chance against FCS ETSU. Goooooo . . . Bucs!
Tennessee kicks off against Missouri at 7:30 on the SEC Network.
Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Missouri Tigers. Bottom line for this week: Both defenses appear to have huge advantages, so whichever team can make the most of that, manage at least something respectable on offense, and win the turnover battle should win.
Details below.
When the Vols have the ball
Where’s the opportunity?
Well, maybe our quarterback won’t get sacked. And maybe our running backs won’t be tripped up behind our own line of scrimmage. Other than that, the answer to this question may be, “On defense.”
Where’s the danger?
Everywhere you look. Missouri’s defense is Top 10 overall, 6th against the pass and 34th against the run. When their side looks mostly green with a little bit of yellow and ours looks mostly orange, it’s not good news.
Gameplan for the Vols on offense
Use the off week to scheme up a couple of free and easy scores. Other than that, just balance, I guess, and see what you can get. And play slow so your defense isn’t worn out in the fourth quarter.
Vols on defense
Where’s the opportunity?
And the tables turn. Missouri’s offense is really struggling. This is especially true in the red zone, but mostly true everywhere. The Vols defense isn’t Top 10 or anything, but it does appear to be significantly better than the Tigers offense.
Where’s the danger?
The danger is that to the extent Tennessee might have an advantage when the Vols are on defense, it’s not as pronounced as Missouri’s advantage when the Vols offense is on the field.
Gameplan for the Vols on defense
Get off the field quick, but don’t give up any big plays. They are allergic to the red zone, so don’t let them avoid it by scoring from 20+ yards out.
Special teams
If the Vols can return a punt for a touchdown in this game, it’s going to help a lot. Problem is, we can’t sleep when punting to them, either.
Turnovers and penalties
Oh, good. They like to self-destruct via yellow flags. Neither team appears to be more vulnerable than the other to turnovers, so whoever can win that battle will have more of a leg up than usual.
I had to look at this four or five times before concluding that it was weird but not wrong: Six players finished with perfect 20-0 records in this week’s Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest. In all the years we’ve been doing this, somebody may have been 20-0 at some point, but I don’t remember it. And I certainly don’t remember six people doing it at the same time. So, congratulations to us, and to me, who won the tiebreaker. Go me.
Here are the full results for this week:
Rank
Player
W-L
Points
Tiebreaker
1
Joel @ GRT
20-0
210
21-17**
1
wedflatrock
20-0
210
24-17
1
Jahiegel
20-0
210
23-21
1
C_hawkfan
20-0
210
24-21
1
UTSeven
20-0
210
31-21
1
Anaconda
20-0
210
35-31
7
ctull
19-1
209
28-0**
7
LuckyGuess
19-1
209
28-27
7
birdjam
19-1
209
20-24
10
Bulldog 85
18-2
207
27-23**
10
cnyvol
18-2
207
23-24
10
Rossboro
18-2
207
0-0
13
memphispete
18-2
206
28-17**
13
PAVolFan
19-1
206
30-21
13
Hixson Vol1
19-1
206
29-26
13
GeorgeMonkey
18-2
206
20-21
17
daetilus
19-1
204
23-20**
17
ltvol99
18-2
204
24-21
17
jfarrar90
19-1
204
24-23
17
Hjohn
17-3
204
0-0
21
hounddog3
17-3
203
20-14**
21
ChuckieTVol
18-2
203
23-20
21
mmmjtx
19-1
203
27-24
24
TennVol95 in 3D!
17-3
202
31-27
25
joeb_1
17-3
201
24-27
26
Displaced_Vol_Fan
16-4
200
20-16**
26
Phonies
18-2
200
24-23
26
patmd
18-2
200
17-24
29
keepontruckin
18-2
197
17-20
30
Sam
16-4
196
24-20**
30
corn from a jar
16-4
196
21-28
32
vols95
18-2
195
27-24
33
Crusher
18-2
194
35-31**
33
alanmar
18-2
194
38-34
35
rollervol
18-2
193
27-24**
35
boro wvvol
18-2
193
31-28
35
doritoscowboy
17-3
193
0-0
38
TennRebel
18-2
192
21-13**
38
PensacolaVolFan
17-3
192
60-0
40
trdlgmsr
17-3
191
17-14
41
Jayyyy
15-5
190
24-28
42
Wilk21
17-3
187
25-31
43
Harley
15-5
186
20-24**
43
tbone
15-5
186
24-28
45
HUTCH
17-3
183
13-31
46
claireb7tx
17-3
180
28-21**
46
ga26engr
17-3
180
28-24
48
DinnerJacket
15-5
178
24-27**
48
bluelite
13-7
178
27-31
50
Raven17
13-7
177
31-24
51
ddayvolsfan
16-4
169
31-17
52
Timbuktu126
14-6
165
17-10
53
rsbrooks25
15-5
154
21-28
54
Neil Neisner
5-15
90
-
55
waitwhereami
0-20
89
0-0**
55
Knottfair
0-20
89
-
55
Aaron Birkholz
0-20
89
-
55
mmb61
0-20
89
-
55
UTVols18
0-20
89
-
55
Salty Seth
0-20
89
-
55
Teri28
0-20
89
-
55
Will Shelton
0-20
89
-
55
mariettavol
0-20
89
-
55
tpi
0-20
89
-
55
aaron217
0-20
89
-
55
If you ain’t first you’re
0-20
89
-
55
tallahasseevol
0-20
89
-
55
dgibbs
0-20
89
-
55
waltsspac
0-20
89
-
55
Willewillm
0-20
89
-
55
Orange Swarm
0-20
89
-
55
Dmorton
0-20
89
-
55
RockyPopPicks
0-20
89
-
55
VillaVol
0-20
89
-
55
Jrstep
0-20
89
-
55
ed75
0-20
89
-
55
jeremy.waldroop
0-20
89
-
55
rockytopinKy
0-20
89
-
55
OriginalVol1814
0-20
89
-
55
BristVol
0-20
89
-
55
orange_devil87
0-20
89
-
55
Orange On Orange
0-20
89
-
55
VFL49er
0-20
89
-
55
ddutcher
0-20
89
-
55
BZACHARY
0-20
89
-
55
Caban Greys
0-20
89
-
55
cactusvol
0-20
89
-
55
Techboy
0-20
89
-
55
JLPasour
0-20
89
-
Wedflatrock remains in the lead after that nonsense with a record of 173-67 and 2022 confidence points.
Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
The Vols were off this week, so there’s no change in expectations there. And Vanderbilt looked about the same as usual, so there’s no change there. Missouri, well . . . Kelly Bryant played, so that made me more uncomfortable about him playing next week against the Vols, but the Tigers offense still struggled even with him at the helm and the team at home. So no change for me there, either.
My current expected win total is still 6.4. I think 6 wins is pretty safe, and hitting the preseason goal of 7-5 will all come down to the Missouri game. That, by the way, would also mean that the team beat our GRT 2019 magazine preseason goals of finishing 4th in the SEC East behind Missouri despite playing much of the season without the guy on the cover. Win both remaining games, and the Vols finish 5-3, and the closest Missouri could get would be 4-4. These are eggs and not chickens, though, so Tennessee needs to keep them safe and warm for two more weeks.
Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:
Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9
After Week 5: 3.25
After Week 6: 3.85
After Week 7: 4.4
After Week 8: 4.7
After Week 9: 5.6
After Week 10: 5.9
After Week 11: 6.4
After Week 12: 6.4
Details: I still have Missouri at 60% and Vanderbilt at 80%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30
vs Vanderbilt
Off this week.
The Vols’ future opponents
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7
Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29
@ Arkansas
Kelly Bryant played this week for Missouri against the Gators, and he was slippery but the offense was still mostly ineffective, and the team is now on a four-game losing streak. The Tigers defense was tough in the first half, but Florida still ended up getting 23 against them. The SPM hasn’t liked Tennessee in this one all season — until this week, and now it’s looking like it’s going to come down to keeping Bryant from getting back on track.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 2-8 (1-6), 7th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30
@ Tennessee
As Will has been fond of saying the past several weeks, Vanderbilt is just a bad football team. Against Kentucky this weekend, they managed only 198 yards of offense while giving up 528 yards to the Wildcats. If it weren’t for the recent history of struggles, we wouldn’t be worried about these guys at all.
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 6-4 (3-3), 3rd in the Sun Belt East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23
Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Southern
There’s no shame in losing to App State, and sitting at 6-4 with two winnable games to go after a 2-10 season last year has to feel good for the Panthers.
BYU Cougars
Current record: 6-4
Thu, Aug 29
Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30
@ San Diego State
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 6-5 (5-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14
Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17
Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16
Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to VMI, 31-24
Florida Gators
Current record: 9-2 (6-2), 2nd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 24
Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5
Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs Florida State
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2
Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Tech
Georgia looked good against Auburn and had the game well in hand until Auburn caught some lightning and made a game of it. The Tigers actually ended up with more yards and more first downs than the Bulldogs, but it was too late. With the Gators and Tigers now behind them, Georgia looks ready to roll the rest of the way home into the post-season.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 4-6 (2-5), 5th in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28
vs Ole Miss
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 2nd in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7
Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14
Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30
@ No. 11 Auburn
Prayers for Tua. To make the SEC Championship Game again this year, Alabama would have to win out (including the Iron Bowl) and have LSU lose twice. The former is possible, even without Tua, but one of LSU’s remaining games is against Arkansas. In other words, LSU is not going to lose twice.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 4-7 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16
Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs 4 Clemson
We warned in our preseason magazine that South Carolina had the toughest schedule in the SEC and that the Gamecocks could struggle even if they were good. It’s hard to say at this point whether they’re actually good, but there can be no doubt that they have succumbed to that brutal schedule. They’ve lost 7 games already with only No. 3 Clemson left, and they’re likely to finish this season 4-8 and home for the holidays.
UAB Blazers
Current record: 7-3 (4-2), 3rd in C-USA West
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12
Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16
Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30
@ North Texas
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 5-5 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30
vs Louisville
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
The big picture questions of this season revolved around what the Vols could/would do in the paint. Kyle’s gone, Grant’s gone, Admiral’s gone, Uros is ineligible, Pons is playing the four. #20 Washington provided an excellent early test, with three 6’9″ starters, one of them a top five freshman, and plenty of shot blocking.
And Tennessee did the simple things to absolute perfection.
Maybe we’re still a little hesitant to believe the most straightforward answers to those questions could all be real without all that cast from last season. But Tennessee took down Washington’s length by absolutely wearing out its zone defense with the same free throw line jumper it worked so well last season. I thought the Vols needed Williams inside to get those kind of looks. Turns out, at least today, nope: Tennessee shot 47.2% from the floor against what was the #13 defense in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. The Huskies allowed 31.2% from inside the arc in their first two games. Tennessee opened up a 12-point halftime lead behind Jordan Bowden, John Fulkerson, and Yves Pons knocking down open jumper after open jumper.
It’s only three games, but it feels like it’s time to start assuming good things from Yves Pons. Bowden took 13 shots to tie for Tennessee’s lead…with Pons, who hit seven shots and finished with 15 points. He splashed another three, and he can still do this:
What seemed like a stop-gap measure has turned into an actual strength on both ends of the floor. Pons isn’t just the best available option at the four. He could end up one of the best in the league. Once again, Rick Barnes and company are transforming a player with incredible speed and efficiency.
With Plavsic, I wondered who else the Vols would play beyond a seven-man rotation. Without Plavsic, Tennessee plugged in Olivier Nkamhoua – two blocks of his own – and ran a seven-man rotation just fine. Would something like that work in SEC grind? Not sure. But tonight, Tennessee’s seven jumped Washington 14-5 in the first five minutes. Washington got no closer than five the rest of the way, and no closer than seven in the second half.
The Vols are now 7-7 against ranked foes in the last three seasons. In Bruce Pearl’s six-year tenure, Tennessee went 23-21 against ranked foes. You needed to see one to believe it, perhaps, but Barnes and company will have the Vols back in the Top 25, and back chasing the same expectations now, not later.
And they’re doing all of it without any revelation from five-star Josiah James, free to come along nicely with a 4-of-4 performance from the floor tonight and the J.P. Prince Stat Line of the Game: 9 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 3 turnovers, 3 fouls.
The Vols return home to face Alabama State on Wednesday (0-3 and lost to Gonzaga by 31), then host Chattanooga on Monday, November 25. Then it’s off to Destin for the next big test against Florida State and either VCU or Purdue. The way things are going, the Vols might go from scrappy rebuild on the fly to the highest-ranked team in the field.
We’ll worry about that later. For now, this was a big, validating win: old faces, new roles, same result.
With the Vols on their second of two bye weeks of the
season, the Tennessee staff will not only take the opportunity to rest its team
and develop its younger players but also reassess its 2020 recruiting
board. They’ll likely hit the road and
touch base with prospects while at the same time likely handing out at least a
handful of new offers. After previously
looking at the Offensive
Big Board, below we’ll take a look at the Defensive and Offensive Line
boards and evaluate where these prospects sit on Tennessee’s board as well as
their reciprocal interest. As a
reminder, the Vols currently have 18 commitments, giving them 7-8 spots to work
with and multiple needs to address:
OL
Current commitments:
James Robinson
Cooper Mays
Javontez Spraggins
Kyree Miller
Prospects:
Chris Morris (Texas
A&M commitment)
Marcus Henderson
RJ Adams
Jeremy Flax (JUCO)
With four really strong OL commitments, including at least a
couple who can play multiple positions once they get to college, OL is the
position where the Vols both can afford to be picky and also potentially pass
on adding another player altogether. To
that point, OL is almost certainly to be a Best Player Available position,
where Tennessee likely fills needs elsewhere before taking another OL. That’s speculation, and it does seem like if
Chris Morris specifically called and wanted in the Vols would be hard pressed
to tell them no. Morris is a very good
prospect who Tennessee has recruited for over a year, and it seems certain that
they will try and get him back to Knoxville at least one time before he
signs. Henderson is a fellow Memphis
native (though Morris now plays football in West Memphis, AR) whose recruitment
has been a bit of a rollercoaster after starting as a highly coveted prospect,
dropping off a lot of radars due to putting on bad weight, and then heating
back up again thanks to a strong senior season.
He’s tentatively scheduled to OV to Tennessee for the Vanderbilt game,
and from there it will be interesting to see what the Vols think. Adams is an Under Armour All-American who
likely projects more as an(other) interior OL prospect. The former PSU commitment visited
unofficially for Tennessee’s UAB weekend and by all accounts is very interested
in returning for an OV. Flax is very
intriguing – a big (6’6, 320) pure OT JUCO prospect with three seasons of
eligibility (ala Jahmir Johnson) that makes him less of a “risk” than your
normal JUCO OL. He’s got recent offers
from UK, Louisville, and Texas Tech along with his new Vol offer. Whether he ends up visiting or not is TBD,
and his spot on the board will be better known once that is worked out.
DL
Current commitment:
Dominic Bailey
Prospects:
Tyler Baron
Octavius Oxendine
Omari Thomas
Jay Hardy (AU
commitment)
Reginald Perry
Damarjhe Lewis
Yaya Diaby (JUCO)
Without a doubt a huge area of need in this (and every)
class, Tennessee has put itself in a position where it can either hit a grand
slam or strike out. Bailey is a
top-shelf product and a good anchor for the DL class himself, providing some positional
versatility along the DL. He’s a guy you
happily take in every DL class and has been solid since his commitment many
months ago. From there, most of the
board is relatively well-known. It seems
unlikely that a scenario would arise in which Tennessee wouldn’t take Baron (who
some might characterize as a pass-rushing OLB but from here projects as a DL
fairly soon in his career), Oxendine, and Thomas. Those are all high-level SEC DL prospects who
bring the kind of size and talent that Tennessee must continue to stack at the
position. Baron continues to flirt with
Kentucky and to a lesser extent OSU, but in the end it’s really hard to see him
going anywhere other than Tennessee.
Oxendine is another UT-UK battle that the Vols appear to be winning (right
now), whlile Thomas is a UT-Ole Miss recruitment that will ultimately come down
to head and heart (Tennessee) vs. logistics (Ole Miss) for the Memphis native. Hardy, who most know shocked everyone by committing
to the Tigers instead of the homestate Vols, is also still a take – the Vols
will likely try and quickly figure out what went wrong with a legacy who
visited campus upwards of a dozen times and yet chose someone else. Whether it’s his position coach not being his
main recruiter or simply not getting enough love if the staff felt he was in the
bag (and by all accounts they had every reason to since he told them he was
coming on multiple occasions), something happened and Tennessee needs to figure
it out quickly. Perry is a good looking
prospect in his own right – big and powerful yet not lacking quickness – who is
visiting officially for the Vanderbilt game.
The Vols will hope to have some clarity on at least a handful of other targets
– at DL and other positions – before deciding how hard to push for him. Lewis is a former Auburn commitment who’s
stock has dropped from where it was last spring but is still a possibility for
the Vols depending on how the chips fall, and Diaby is a new offer from the
JUCO ranks. Frankly, given that
Tennessee loses seven(!) DL after the 2020 season due to graduation the idea of
bringing in a guy who would only have one more year of eligibility after that
doesn’t make a ton of sense unless the staff thinks he’s a future NFL player.
OLB
Current commitment:
Jimari Butler
Prospects:
Morven Joseph (FSU commit)
Jevon Banks
(Mississippi State commit)
Simeon Barrow (Michigan
State commit)
Jasheen Davis (WF
commit)
Khari Coleman (Kansas
commit)
Jonathan Horton
Sa’vell Smalls
(Washington commit)
Butler is a guy who we’re very
high on, and a nice recovery for Tennessee from an evaluation perspective
after losing the commitment of BJ Ojulari to LSU. The Vols could use at least one more edge
rusher/OLB in this class, and if they got the right combination of the above
they’d likely take more than one. We
broke down the board pretty thoroughly here,
even before the Butler commitment, and not much has changed since. Joseph and Banks have both scheduled for
their respective official visits to Knoxville for the Vanderbilt game, while
the Vols have continued to try with especially Smalls as recruiting ace Brian
Niedermeyer checks on him each time he heads out on his 5-Star West Coast
tour.
ILB
Current commitment:
Bryson Eason
Martavius French
Tamarion McDonald
Prospects:
Len’neth Whitehead
Desmond Tisdol
Vai Kaho
Noah Sewell
One could make the case that only Eason will end up as an ILB
from the committed group above, as French could easily project to the DL or
even OLB while McDonald could end up playing some sort of Nickel/Money/Safety hybrid
position. That said, all are high level
who check
a lot of boxes for the Vols. Whitehead
and Tisdol are likely both Tennessee leans at this point (Tisdol has actually named
the Vols as his leader) and also both multi-positional prospects who could play
LB or RB, and both recruitments having seen ebbs and flows in terms of the
Vols. Whitehead was thought to be close
to committing to Tennessee when he took his OV for the Georgia State debacle,
then was close to pledging the South Carolina over the last couple of
months. However, with the turmoil in
Columbia the Vols have sensed an opportunity and pounced, and right now
Whitehead looks like Tennessee’s to lose.
Whitehead has stated his preference for playing RB, and that’s where he’ll
get his first shot; however, the money here is on him realizing quickly that he
can be an All-SEC LB and the defensive minded Jeremy Pruitt helping him figure
that out. Tisdol was also once a
Gamecock lean, but that was after he was close to committing to Auburn
first. Per 247Sports, Auburn coaches are
particularly high on his potential at LB and the Tigers have tried to circle
back to him since they lost the commitment of 5-star Trenton Simpson. Tisdol is also a good looking RB prospect. Again however, he likely has a higher ceiling
in college at ILB, and ideally the Vols would land a higher level pure RB
prospect. The question is whether or not
there are enough spots to take both Whitehead AND Tisdol AND another pure RB. In
terms of timing, Whitehead will likely make it back to Knoxvulle and then
potentially commit before Tisdol’s OV the 12/13 weekend, though Tisdol could be
incentivized to try and jump in ahead of him – Tennessee coaches will have to figure
out how to manage all of that. In the
meantime, Kaho has emerged as a legitimate target at ILB. Like Tisdol he’s on the shorter side in the 6’0-6’1
range, but the Nevada commitment from Reno has seen his stock rise of late. The Polynesian Bowl honoree is clearly not a
firm Wolfpack commitment, as his official visit to Knoxville for the Vanderbilt
game will have been preceded by an OV to Colorado in October. His brother Ale is a scholarship LB at
Alabama, so distance is likely not a factor – additionally Ale is apparently universally
thought to be underutilized
in Tuscaloosa, so if they could “convince” him to take his talents to Tennessee
by signing Vai we’d be all for it. Just
sayin’. Sewell is a well-known prospect
to UT fans and another of the 5-star players who Niedermeyer continues to try
and keep the Vols involved with. Thought
to be an Oregon-Georgia battle, Sewell is a freakish player whose brother plays
for the Ducks as one of if not the best OL in the country. Obviously the Vols would prefer for him to
stay out West should he not come to Knoxville, but they won’t stop trying to
get Sewell back for an OV. He’s one of a
few prospects for whom the Vols would 100% make room if he wanted to come.
DB
Current commitment:
Keshawn Lawrence
Mordecai McDaniel
Art Green
Prospects:
Kendall Dennis
Emmanuel Appiah
(JUCO)
Ramon Henderson
Ronald Williams
(JUCO)
Joel Williams
Tommy Wright
Decamerion Richardson
The Vols have a nice group of commitments so far in the
secondary, with three players who could all potentially play multiple positions. Lawrence and McDaniel in particular are stud
athletes and will bring a swagger to the Tennessee defensive backfield that has
been building that with the additions of guys like Alontae Taylor, Bryce
Thompson, and Jaylen McCullough. Green
has had a somewhat subpar season that has seen his stock drop according to the
recruiting gurus, but he’s an early enrollee with really good size who’s played
both S and CB in Junior College so as long as the coaches are sold on him there
is little reason to worry.
In a world in which numbers didn’t matter, it would make sense to add a 4th DB to this class. Obviously that’s not the case, so it’s quite likely that in order for any of the DBs on the board to be takes it will have to be in a Best Player Available situation. Dennis unofficially visited Knoxville a couple of times over the summer but has been thought to be an Auburn lean for a while now. He’s tentatively scheduled for an OV for the Vanderbilt game. Appiah is a relatively new addition to the board and is another DB who the Vols and Auburn could battle it out for. The NJ native is a close friend of Jarrett Guarantano and has had a huge season. He’s also an EE, which makes him a more attractive prospect as someone more likely to make a quick impact. He’s scheduled to visit the 12/13 weekend. Henderson is a relatively new name on the board and someone Tee Martin has been quietly working on. A guy who could play on either side of the ball, Henderson is another EE scheduled for the Vanderbilt game and the 4-star will decide between OU, Notre Dame, UCLA, Utah and the Vols. Ronald Williams has become a much more highly coveted prospect with recent offers from the likes of Alabama, while Joel Williams has been on the scene for a while and is a former UF commitment whose interest in and from the Vols has vacillated throughout the process. Neither those two nor Wright and Richardson – two other recent offers – currently have OVs scheduled to Tennessee right now.
The good news: a bye week isn’t really a bye week when your basketball team is playing a Top 20 opponent. The bad news: because everyone not on a bye is still playing football, all your television channels are spoken for. So we welcome the Vols to ESPN+, which means you can watch this game for $4.99 (per month if you don’t cancel it) or as part of an expanded Disney+ subscription.
A tangent: Tennessee’s football media guide includes a section called “Vols On Television”, a ludicrous premise to anyone under the age of 30. You have to go back to a game between the 4-4 Vols and Memphis in November 1994 to find the last time a Tennessee football game simply wasn’t available to watch. But between 1989 all the way up to the first game of the Butch Jones era, VideoSeat carried 47 Tennessee football games on pay per view; some who lived outside the Volunteer State in the latter part of that run will remember fondly the old ESPN GamePlan package carrying these games. The first one of those PPV games is the most famous: September 9, 1989, when the Vols went to #6 UCLA late on the east coast and rolled to a 24-6 victory, sparking Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001. The media guide lists the Vols as 46-1 in those games (thanks, Wyoming); it’s the nature of the beast that they’d be less interesting.
Even the term “pay per view” seems strange now unless you’re a wrestling fan, and it may fade from that vocabulary too over time. The good news for basketball: the Vols aren’t playing Austin Peay, and you’re getting #20 Washington at a much better price.
The Huskies leaped from the also receiving votes pile with a stunning comeback against #16 Baylor in the Armed Forces Classic from Anchorage. Baylor went up 10 with 5:38 to play. They hit a single free throw the rest of the way home.
Tennessee might see each of the three highest-rated freshmen in college basketball this season. We’ll see what happens with James Wiseman at number one. Anthony Edwards – there’s two o’s in Goose – is at Georgia, he’s number two. And number three is Isaiah Stewart, a 6’9″ 245 lbs. forward at UDub. They threw him in the fire right away with 36 minutes against Baylor, and he went 7-of-13 for 15 points and 7 rebounds. Fellow 6’9″ Top 10 freshman Jaden McDaniels played 33 minutes and had 18 points, going 7-of-8 at the line.
The leading scorer was 6’6″ junior Nahziah Carter with 23 points on 4-of-6 from the arc. And you’ll remember Quade Green, who transferred from Kentucky. He scored double figures in each of the 2018 UT/UK games; it’s a different role here, as he had only two points but dished out nine assists for the Huskies in the opener.
Washington was already pulling in elite talent: Markelle Fultz was the top pick in the 2017 draft, and Matisse Thybulle is getting 15 minutes a night as a rookie with the Sixers. But the transition from Lorenzo Romar to Mike Hopkins following a 9-22 finish with both of them on the roster has led to actual wins. Hopkins was an assistant at Syracuse for more than 20 years, the coach-in-waiting for Jim Boeheim who, it seems, got tired of waiting. Washington rebounded to 21-13 and an NIT appearance in Hopkins’ first year, then 27-9 with a Pac-12 title last season. They routed Utah State in an 8/9 game, then got routed by North Carolina.
After finishing 224th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings in 2017, Hopkins has made defense the focus: 73rd in 2018, 18th last season, and 13th in the early stages this year. The big freshmen protect the rim, and they do not tolerate nonsense: McDaniels and 6’9″ junior Hameir Wright each blocked four shots in the opener, then Stewart got five against Mount St. Mary’s. If we don’t get at least one good showdown between Yves Pons and one of these dudes, I’ll be disappointed.
So there are obvious issues for Tennessee in going against a lineup featuring three 6’9″ guys. It’s a thin bench for Washington, so foul trouble becomes an issue both ways. The Vols haven’t done much in the way of getting to the line in the first two games, and are shooting just 60% when they arrive. What Tennessee did do was torch Murray State from the arc at 12-of-22. Getting a high volume of shots from three was sometimes a sign of trouble last season. But without Williams, Schofield, and Alexander, the Vols may lean more toward the three this season. Washington’s excellent rim protection should be a good indicator of how Barnes sees that dilemma.
But what also comes with playing a bunch of freshmen: turnovers. The Huskies survived 20 in the opener, then added 15 including five from McDaniels against Mount St. Mary’s. The Huskies are giving it away on 25.1% of their possessions. That’s opportunity.
Here’s a phrase you don’t really use when you spend a month at number one, but might be applicable some this season: Washington might be a bad match-up for Tennessee. This combination of size and skill is rare, and will be the biggest test for Pons, Fulkerson, and certainly Nkamhoua to date. You won’t see much of the Huskies playing so far away, but they’ll be worth keeping an eye on; the Bracket Matrix has them as a nine seed, but the ceiling is obviously quite high.
This first run of marquee non-conference foes features Tennessee – a seven seed in the Bracket Matrix – going against teams right on their level. Washington is ranked 20th, and all four teams in the Emerald Coast Classic – the Vols, Florida State, VCU, and Purdue – are between 26-32 in also receiving votes. Group them together, and 2-1 would be a job well done. But we’re not used to thinking that way after last season…and there’s no reason to start until losing makes you.
Can the more experienced Vols impose their will, turn Washington over, and shoot well enough from three to get the win in Toronto? The first real answers will come Saturday at 5:00 PM on ESPN+.
This past summer, after Jeremy Pruitt had his first full season as Tennessee’s head coach under his belt, we looked back on the long list of Vols’ coaching candidates to see how they did in 2018 relative to Pruitt. Now that Pruitt has turned a 1-4 beginning in 2019 into a 4-1 hot streak, we thought we’d use the second bye week of the season to take another peek.
This is a long post. The details of each candidate’s updates are below, but I’ve included my own re-ranking both here at the top and at the bottom for the sake of convenience and in the interest of fighting back against carpal tunnel.
Only losses were to Kentucky, Missouri, and No. 7 Georgia
2019 so far
Currently 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East
Beat then No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Lost to then No. 5 LSU 42-28 and No. 8 Georgia 24-17
Team is currently No. 11 in the CFP rankings
On pace to exceed GRT 2019 expectations
2. Jimbo Fisher
2018
Hired as head coach at Texas A&M
Went 9-4 (5-3), tied for 2nd in the SEC West, No. 16 in both polls
Beat No. 13 Kentucky, No. 7 LSU, a bunch of others; lost by only 2 to No. 2 Clemson
2019 so far
Currently 6-3 (3-2), 4th in the SEC West
No wins over ranked teams
Lost to No. 1 Clemson 24-10, No. 8 Auburn 28-20, and No. 1 Alabama 47-28
Not ranked in the CFP rankings
On pace to meet or exceed GRT 2019 expectations
3. Willie Taggart
2018
Hired as head coach at Florida State
Went 5-7 (3-5), tied for 5th in the ACC Atlantic
Beat No. 20 Boston College, but lost to No. 20 Virginia Tech, No. 17 Miami, No. 2 Clemson, No. 21 NC State, No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 11, and unranked Syracuse.
2019
Fired mid-season after a 4-5 (3-4) start capped by a 27-10 loss to rival Miami
4. Jon Gruden
2018
Hired as head coach at the NFL’s Oakland Raiders
Went 4-12, beating only Cleveland (in OT), Arizona (by 2), Pittsburgh (by 3), and Denver
2019 so far
Currently 5-4, 2nd in the AFC West
5. Scott Frost
2018
Hired as head coach at Nebraska
Went 4-8 (3-6); Beat only Minnesota, Bethune-Cookman, Illinois, and Michigan State, all unranked
2019 so far
Currently 4-5 (2-4), 6th in the Big Ten West
Only wins over South Alabama, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Northwestern
Currently on a three-game losing streak to then-unranked teams
Coordinators hired as head coaches
1A. Joe Moorhead
2018
Hired as head coach at Mississippi State
Went 8-5 (4-4), 4th in SEC West
Beat No. 8 Auburn, No. 16 Texas A&M, and others; finished No. 25 in the Coaches Poll
2019 so far
Currently 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West
Lost four of the past five games, with the lone win coming against an Arkansas team that just fired its Year 2 coach
Will fail to meet GRT 2019 expectations by at least two games
1B. Jeremy Pruitt
2018
Hired as head coach at Tennessee
Went 5-7 (2-6), last in the SEC East
Beat No. 21 Auburn and No. 11 Kentucky, but lost to No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Georgia, No. 17 West Virginia, and unranked Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt
2019 so far
Currently 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East
Won four of the last five games, with the one loss coming to No. 1 Alabama
Two bad losses to unranked teams to begin the season
Other three losses all to Top 10 teams
On pace to meet GRT 2019 expectations overall, to exceed expectations for the SEC
3. Chip Kelly
2018
Hired as head coach at UCLA
Went 3-9 (3-6), 5th in the Pac-12 South
Only wins were against California, Arizona, and USC, all unranked
2019 so far
Currently 4-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Pac 12 South
Started the season 1-5 (1-2)
Currently on a three-game win streak, which includes a win over No. 24 Arizona State
4. Chad Morris
2018
Hired as head coach at Arkansas
Went 2-10 (0-8), last in the SEC West
Only beat Eastern Illinois and Tulsa
2019 so far
Fired mid-season after a 2-8 (0-6) start, on the heels of a non-competitive seven-game losing streak
Candidates who got fired shortly after we were talking about hiring them
The next three guys not only didn’t get any offer compelling enough to move somewhere, they couldn’t even keep their existing jobs for one more season.
Greg Schiano
2018
Remained as defensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2018.
When Urban Meyer was suspended for three games, he handed the reins not to Schiano but to offensive coordinator Ryan Day.
The Buckeyes defense was not as good in 2018, and when Meyer retired at the end of the season, Day was made head coach. He did not retain Schiano after the season.
Schiano was hired as defensive coordinator for New England in February, 2019, but left after only a month.
2019 so far
Likely to return to Rutgers to take the open head coaching job
Bobby Petrino
2018
Remained at Louisville as head coach until he was fired in November
Team went 2-10 (0-8), last in ACC Atlantic
Only wins were against Indiana State and Western Kentucky
2019 so far
Back on the coaching carousel this November
D.J. Durkin
2018
In fall camp last year, a player died, and allegations of toxic
culture under Durkin led to his suspension. He was later reinstated for a day and
then fired.
2019 so far
Currently a consultant for the Atlanta Falcons.
Head coaches who stayed put
1. Mike Leach
2018
Basically hired by John Currie, who apparently did not have the authority to do so
Stayed at Washington State
Went 11-2 (7-2) and tied for first in the Pac-12 North
Beat No. 12 Oregon, No. 24 Stanford, but lost to No. 16 Washington. Beat No. 24 Iowa State in the Valero Alamo Bowl
Finished No. 10 in the AP and Coaches polls
2019 so far
Currently 4-5 (1-5), 6th in the Pac 12 North
No wins over ranked teams
Lost five of the last six games
2. Les Miles (former head coach, unemployed in both 2017 and 2018)
2018
Not hired by anyone until after the season.
Now head coach at Kansas for 2019
2019 so far
Currently 3-6 (1-5), 9th in the Big 12
No wins over ranked teams
Lost five of the last six games, although this stretch includes a two-point loss to No. 15 Texas
Has Kansas much more competitive than in the past
3. Matt Campbell
2018
Remained at Iowa State as head coach
Went 8-5 (6-3), tied for 3rd in the Big 12
Beat No. 25 Oklahoma State, No. 6 West Virginia, and several others
2019 so far
Currently 5-4 (3-3), 4th in the Big 12
No wins over ranked teams
Two one-point losses to No. 19 Iowa and No. 9 Oklahoma
4. Mike Norvell
2018
Remained at Memphis as head coach
Went 8-6 (5-3), tied for 1st in the American West
No wins against ranked teams
2019 so far
Currently 8-1 (4-1), 3rd in the American Athletic West
One win over a ranked team: 54-48 over No. 15 SMU
Currently No. 18 in the CFP rankings
5. Gary Patterson
2018
Stayed at TCU as head coach
Went 7-6 (4-5), tied for 5th in the Big 12
No wins against ranked teams
2019 so far
Currently 4-5 (2-4), 7th in the Big 12
Beat No. 15 Texas, 37-27
Lost to No. 12 Baylor, 29-23 in 3OT
All losses but one (to Iowa State) were one-possession games
6. Charlie Strong
2018
Stayed at South Florida as head coach
Went 7-6 (3-5), 4th in American East
No wins against ranked teams, and lost last six games
2019 so far
Currently 4-5 (2-3), 4th in the American Athletic East
No wins over ranked teams
Only game against a ranked opponent resulted in a 49-0 loss to No. 19 Wisconsin
Two opportunities against No. 17 Cincinnati and No. 18 Memphis up next
7. P.J. Fleck
2018
Remained as head coach at Minnesota
Went 7-6 (3-6), tied for 5th in the Big 10 West
No wins against ranked teams
2019 so far
Currently 9-0 (6-0), 1st in the Big Ten West
One win over a ranked opponent, but it was a good one: 31-26 over No. 4 Penn State
Two more opportunities against ranked opponents to close out the season (No. 20 Iowa tomorrow and No. 14 Wisconsin on 11/30)
8. Justin Fuente
2018
Remained at Virginia Tech as head coach
Went 6-7 (4-4), tied for 3rd in ACC Coastal
Beat No. 19 Florida State, No. 22 Duke
2019 so far
Currently 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in the ACC Coastal
One win over a ranked team: 36-17 over No. 19 Wake Forest
One-point loss to No. 16 Notre Dame
Two other losses were one-possession to Boston College and a blowout loss to Duke
9. Jeff Brohm
2018
Remained at Purdue for his second season
Went 6-7 (5-4) and tied for second in the Big 10 West
Beat No. 2 Ohio State, No. 16 Iowa, and No. 23 Boston College, but lost to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Missouri, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Auburn, all unranked
2019 so far
Currently 4-6 (3-4), 5th in the Big Ten West
No wins over ranked teams
One-possession loss to No. 23 Iowa
10. Lane Kiffin
2018
Remained at Florida Atlantic as head coach
Went 5-7 (3-5), 5th in C-USA East
No wins against ranked teams
2019 so far
Currently 7-3 (5-1), 1st in Conference USA East
Two losses against No. 5 Ohio State and No. 18 UCF to start the season, then 7-1 the rest of the way
11. Mike Bobo
2018
Remained as head coach at Colorado State
Sidelined by health issues early, and team went 3-9 (2-6), 5th in MWC Mountain
Only wins were Arkansas, San Jose State, and New Mexico
2019 so far
Currently 4-5 (3-2), 4th in Mountain West Mountain
No wins over (or losses to) ranked teams
Coordinators who stayed put (at the time)
1. Brent Venables
2018
Remained at Clemson as DC
5th nationally, 2nd in the ACC in total defense last year
2019 so far
Still at Clemson as DC
4th nationally, 1st in the ACC in total defense
2. Mel Tucker
2018
Remained at Georgia as DC. Hired as head coach at Colorado for 2019.
13th nationally and 2nd in the SEC in total defense last year
2019 so far
First year as head coach at Colorado
Currently 4-6 (2-5), 6th in the Pac 12 South
Two wins over then-ranked teams: 34-31 OT over No. 25 Nebraska, 34-31 over then No. 24 Arizona State
1-5 over the last six games
Colorado was 5-7 each of the past two seasons before Tucker arrived
3. Kevin Steele
2018
Remained at Auburn as defensive coordinator
38th nationally and 8th in the SEC in total defense
2019 so far
Still at Auburn as DC
28th nationally and 4th in the SEC in total defense
4. Tee Martin
2018
Remained at USC as OC; was released along with most of the staff in late November
83rd nationally and 10th in the Pac-12 in total offense last season
Hired as a wide receivers coach at Tennessee
2019 so far
Still coaching wide receivers at Tennessee
Re-ranking the 2017 Tennessee coaching candidates
Based on all of that, here’s how I’d rank them as of right now:
Good bets
Dan Mullen
Jeremy Pruitt
Jimbo Fisher
Gary Patterson
Matt Campbell
Justin Fuente
Mike Norvell
Mike Leach
Les Miles
P.J. Fleck
Joe Moorhead
Jeff Brohm
Calculated risks
Lane Kiffin
Chip Kelly
Jon Gruden
Charlie Strong
Scott Frost
Mel Tucker
Mike Bobo
Unknowns (as head coach)
Brent Venables
Kevin Steele
Tee Martin
Goodness, what did we almost do?
Chad Morris
Willie Taggart
Greg Schiano
Bobby Petrino
D.J. Durkin
Your turn
What about you? How would you rank those guys now?
Tennessee’s off again this week, so I figured we’d use this spot for an SPM update and its favorite picks for the week.
The SPM’s performance so far in 2019
This week, the SPM went 25-23 (52.08%) overall. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 12-5 (70.59%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was 7-2 (77.78%).
For the season, the SPM is now 277-257 (51.87%) overall, 121-89 (57.62%) over the confidence threshold, and 70-37 (65.42%) in the confidence range.