Early Efficiency From Three

Two seasons ago Lamonte Turner splashed 39.5% of his three-point attempts, and went 38-of-84 (45.2%) in conference play, the second-best mark in the league that season (stats via KenPom). It was part of a remarkable shooting run from the 2017-18 Vols, with Admiral Schofield (39.5%), Jordan Bowden (39.5%), and Jordan Bone (38%) pushing Tennessee to shoot 38% from the arc as a team; that’s the best number the Vols put up since Bruce Pearl’s first team hit 38.8% behind 43.7% from Chris Lofton and 42.2% from C.J. Watson.

Last year Turner struggled to get his shoulder right, finishing at 32% from the arc (but still the maker of big shots). The Vols still hit 36.7% as a team, thanks in large part to Schofield’s 42.2%.

So far this season, Turner has been amazing as the point guard: 28 assists in three games, including 14 without a turnover against Murray State, helping the Vols get an assist on 67.8% of their buckets, currently ninth nationally in assist percentage. And Turner played 39 minutes against the Racers and the Huskies, plus 36 in the blowout of UNC Asheville.

The only blemish: a slow start from the arc at 3-of-16. And yet, the Vols are shooting 46.2% from three in the first three games, the third-best percentage in the nation. Bowden is 9-of-14, Yves Pons 5-of-8, Jalen Johnson 3-of-8, Josiah James 2-of-3, Davonte Gaines 1-of-1, and even Zach Kent is in on the action at 1-of-2.

The juxtaposition of Tennessee’s percentage and the number of threes the Vols take is staggering early: third nationally in percentage made, 316th nationally in percentage taken. But it plays into something that happened with Tennessee some last season: even for a good three-point shooting team, too many attempts got the Vols out of their offense and sometimes led to defeat.

Via Sports-Reference, last season the Vols went 4-4 when attempting 24+ threes, and 27-2 when attempting 23 or less. There are a couple of overtimes in those 24+ games that can skew the numbers a tad, but generally Tennessee’s best basketball didn’t include heavy reliance on the three, unless they were going to hit an even more unusually high percentage of them (12-of-29 for 41.4% against #1 Gonzaga).

In Tennessee’s first real test this season against Washington, I wondered if the Vols would go outside more, especially against the Huskies’ interior and facing a zone that can invite deep threes. Bowden and Turner have been around long enough and made enough to get a green light. But instead, the Vols were disciplined and carved up Washington inside the arc, while still splashing 6-of-13 from beyond.

We need more time and more games to see if Yves Pons’ shot is real and if Turner’s shot will come on again. But even without last year’s vets inside, the Vols aren’t falling in love with the three, even if it sure looks like it wants to fall in love with them.

We’ll see if that continues tonight when the #20 Vols take on 0-3 Alabama State (7:00 PM, SEC Network+).

College Football TV Schedule: Week 13

The Tennessee Volunteers kick off in the evening slot this Saturday (7:30 on the SEC Network), but the appetizers start early and keep on coming all week long. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 7:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football
Ohio Bowling Green 7:30 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football

Look, it’s Week 13, and football will be gone before you know it. So . . . watch ’em if you got ’em.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Akron Miami (OH) 7:30 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football
Toledo Buffalo 7:30 PM ESPN2 Channel Hop It's football

Or not. It’s up to you.

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NC State Georgia Tech 8:00 PM ESPN Live It's football

Did you know that 2019 Georgia Tech is engaging in college football’s most extreme makeover? How’s it looking? Um, needs more . . . something.

Friday, November 22, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Colorado State Wyoming 9:30 PM Good question Because I said so

I left this here because I was amused that this was the only Friday game and apparently even ESPN+ is washing its hair that night.

Gameday, November 23, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#9 Penn State #2 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX Live Top 10 matchup
AFTERNOON
Texas A&M #4 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Former Vols opponent
East Tennessee State Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SEC ALTERNATE DVR / Check in Future Vols opponent
#19 Texas #13 Baylor 3:30 PM FS1 Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Tennessee Missouri 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols

Honestly, there’s a lot of garbage on this weekend, and some of it features Top 10 and Top 20 teams. Who between Penn State and Ohio State would you most like to see lose at noon? Ditto in the Big 12 at 3:30 between Texas and Baylor (although now that I write that — Go Bears.) Vanderbilt can’t even get on the regular SEC Network in the afternoon slot, but hey, they might have a chance against FCS ETSU. Goooooo . . . Bucs!

Tennessee kicks off against Missouri at 7:30 on the SEC Network.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
11/19/19 Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois 7:30 PM ESPN2
11/19/19 Ohio Bowling Green 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/20/19 Akron Miami (OH) 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/20/19 Toledo Buffalo 7:30 PM ESPN2
11/21/19 NC State Georgia Tech 8:00 PM ESPN
11/22/19 Colorado State Wyoming 9:30 PM
11/23/19 #9 Penn State #2 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
11/23/19 Western Carolina #5 Alabama 12:00 PM ESPN
11/23/19 #8 Minnesota Northwestern 12:00 PM ABC
11/23/19 Samford #12 Auburn 12:00 PM SECN
11/23/19 Illinois #20 Iowa 12:00 PM BTN
11/23/19 #22 Oklahoma State West Virginia 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/23/19 Liberty Virginia 12:00 PM ACCNX
11/23/19 Michigan State Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
11/23/19 Kansas Iowa State 12:00 PM
11/23/19 UCF Tulane 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/23/19 BYU UMass 12:00 PM
11/23/19 Ball State Kent State 12:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 East Carolina UConn 12:00 PM ESPN3
11/23/19 South Alabama Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Air Force New Mexico 2:00 PM ESPN3
11/23/19 Boston College #16 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
11/23/19 Texas State #25 Appalachian State 2:30 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Georgia Southern Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Texas A&M #4 Georgia 3:30 PM CBS
11/23/19 #19 Texas #13 Baylor 3:30 PM FS1
11/23/19 #15 Michigan Indiana 3:30 PM ESPN
11/23/19 SMU #23 Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/23/19 Nebraska Maryland 3:30 PM BTN
11/23/19 East Tennessee State Vanderbilt 3:30 PM SEC ALTERNATE
11/23/19 UT Martin Kentucky 3:30 PM SECN
11/23/19 Mercer North Carolina 3:30 PM ACCNX
11/23/19 Pittsburgh Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/23/19 UCLA USC 3:30 PM ABC
11/23/19 Marshall Charlotte 3:30 PM
11/23/19 Louisiana Tech UAB 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 North Texas Rice 3:30 PM NFL
11/23/19 Western Kentucky Southern Mississippi 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Purdue #14 Wisconsin 4:00 PM
11/23/19 #18 Memphis South Florida 4:00 PM ESPNU
11/23/19 California Stanford 4:00 PM PAC12
11/23/19 UTEP New Mexico State 4:00 PM
11/23/19 Syracuse Louisville 4:00 PM ACCN
11/23/19 San Jose State UNLV 4:00 PM
11/23/19 Old Dominion Middle Tennessee 4:30 PM ESPN3
11/23/19 Coastal Carolina UL Monroe 5:00 PM ESPN3
11/23/19 Troy Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Florida Atlantic UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN+
11/23/19 Arkansas #1 LSU 7:00 PM ESPN
11/23/19 Temple #17 Cincinnati 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/23/19 #24 Kansas State Texas Tech 7:00 PM FS1
11/23/19 Miami Florida International 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/23/19 #6 Oregon Arizona State 7:30 PM ABC
11/23/19 Houston Tulsa 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/23/19 Abilene Christian Mississippi State 7:30 PM SEC ALTERNATE
11/23/19 Tennessee Missouri 7:30 PM SECN
11/23/19 Duke Wake Forest 7:30 PM ACCN
11/23/19 TCU #10 Oklahoma 8:00 PM
11/23/19 Oregon State Washington State 9:00 PM PAC12
11/23/19 #7 Utah Arizona 10:00 PM
11/23/19 Washington Colorado 10:00 PM ESPN
11/23/19 #21 Boise State Utah State 10:30 PM
11/23/19 Nevada Fresno State 10:30 PM
11/23/19 San Diego State Hawai'i 11:00 PM

Tennessee-Missouri: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Missouri Tigers. Bottom line for this week: Both defenses appear to have huge advantages, so whichever team can make the most of that, manage at least something respectable on offense, and win the turnover battle should win.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

Well, maybe our quarterback won’t get sacked. And maybe our running backs won’t be tripped up behind our own line of scrimmage. Other than that, the answer to this question may be, “On defense.”

Where’s the danger?

Everywhere you look. Missouri’s defense is Top 10 overall, 6th against the pass and 34th against the run. When their side looks mostly green with a little bit of yellow and ours looks mostly orange, it’s not good news.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Use the off week to scheme up a couple of free and easy scores. Other than that, just balance, I guess, and see what you can get. And play slow so your defense isn’t worn out in the fourth quarter.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

And the tables turn. Missouri’s offense is really struggling. This is especially true in the red zone, but mostly true everywhere. The Vols defense isn’t Top 10 or anything, but it does appear to be significantly better than the Tigers offense.

Where’s the danger?

The danger is that to the extent Tennessee might have an advantage when the Vols are on defense, it’s not as pronounced as Missouri’s advantage when the Vols offense is on the field.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

Get off the field quick, but don’t give up any big plays. They are allergic to the red zone, so don’t let them avoid it by scoring from 20+ yards out.

Special teams

If the Vols can return a punt for a touchdown in this game, it’s going to help a lot. Problem is, we can’t sleep when punting to them, either.

Turnovers and penalties

Oh, good. They like to self-destruct via yellow flags. Neither team appears to be more vulnerable than the other to turnovers, so whoever can win that battle will have more of a leg up than usual.

Six players perfect in Week 12 of the 2019 GRT Pick ‘Em, Wedflatrock still leads overall

I had to look at this four or five times before concluding that it was weird but not wrong: Six players finished with perfect 20-0 records in this week’s Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest. In all the years we’ve been doing this, somebody may have been 20-0 at some point, but I don’t remember it. And I certainly don’t remember six people doing it at the same time. So, congratulations to us, and to me, who won the tiebreaker. Go me.

Here are the full results for this week:

Rank Player W-L Points Tiebreaker
1 Joel @ GRT 20-0 210 21-17**
1 wedflatrock 20-0 210 24-17
1 Jahiegel 20-0 210 23-21
1 C_hawkfan 20-0 210 24-21
1 UTSeven 20-0 210 31-21
1 Anaconda 20-0 210 35-31
7 ctull 19-1 209 28-0**
7 LuckyGuess 19-1 209 28-27
7 birdjam 19-1 209 20-24
10 Bulldog 85 18-2 207 27-23**
10 cnyvol 18-2 207 23-24
10 Rossboro 18-2 207 0-0
13 memphispete 18-2 206 28-17**
13 PAVolFan 19-1 206 30-21
13 Hixson Vol1 19-1 206 29-26
13 GeorgeMonkey 18-2 206 20-21
17 daetilus 19-1 204 23-20**
17 ltvol99 18-2 204 24-21
17 jfarrar90 19-1 204 24-23
17 Hjohn 17-3 204 0-0
21 hounddog3 17-3 203 20-14**
21 ChuckieTVol 18-2 203 23-20
21 mmmjtx 19-1 203 27-24
24 TennVol95 in 3D! 17-3 202 31-27
25 joeb_1 17-3 201 24-27
26 Displaced_Vol_Fan 16-4 200 20-16**
26 Phonies 18-2 200 24-23
26 patmd 18-2 200 17-24
29 keepontruckin 18-2 197 17-20
30 Sam 16-4 196 24-20**
30 corn from a jar 16-4 196 21-28
32 vols95 18-2 195 27-24
33 Crusher 18-2 194 35-31**
33 alanmar 18-2 194 38-34
35 rollervol 18-2 193 27-24**
35 boro wvvol 18-2 193 31-28
35 doritoscowboy 17-3 193 0-0
38 TennRebel 18-2 192 21-13**
38 PensacolaVolFan 17-3 192 60-0
40 trdlgmsr 17-3 191 17-14
41 Jayyyy 15-5 190 24-28
42 Wilk21 17-3 187 25-31
43 Harley 15-5 186 20-24**
43 tbone 15-5 186 24-28
45 HUTCH 17-3 183 13-31
46 claireb7tx 17-3 180 28-21**
46 ga26engr 17-3 180 28-24
48 DinnerJacket 15-5 178 24-27**
48 bluelite 13-7 178 27-31
50 Raven17 13-7 177 31-24
51 ddayvolsfan 16-4 169 31-17
52 Timbuktu126 14-6 165 17-10
53 rsbrooks25 15-5 154 21-28
54 Neil Neisner 5-15 90 -
55 waitwhereami 0-20 89 0-0**
55 Knottfair 0-20 89 -
55 Aaron Birkholz 0-20 89 -
55 mmb61 0-20 89 -
55 UTVols18 0-20 89 -
55 Salty Seth 0-20 89 -
55 Teri28 0-20 89 -
55 Will Shelton 0-20 89 -
55 mariettavol 0-20 89 -
55 tpi 0-20 89 -
55 aaron217 0-20 89 -
55 If you ain’t first you’re 0-20 89 -
55 tallahasseevol 0-20 89 -
55 dgibbs 0-20 89 -
55 waltsspac 0-20 89 -
55 Willewillm 0-20 89 -
55 Orange Swarm 0-20 89 -
55 Dmorton 0-20 89 -
55 RockyPopPicks 0-20 89 -
55 VillaVol 0-20 89 -
55 Jrstep 0-20 89 -
55 ed75 0-20 89 -
55 jeremy.waldroop 0-20 89 -
55 rockytopinKy 0-20 89 -
55 OriginalVol1814 0-20 89 -
55 BristVol 0-20 89 -
55 orange_devil87 0-20 89 -
55 Orange On Orange 0-20 89 -
55 VFL49er 0-20 89 -
55 ddutcher 0-20 89 -
55 BZACHARY 0-20 89 -
55 Caban Greys 0-20 89 -
55 cactusvol 0-20 89 -
55 Techboy 0-20 89 -
55 JLPasour 0-20 89 -

Wedflatrock remains in the lead after that nonsense with a record of 173-67 and 2022 confidence points.

Rank Player W-L % Points
1 wedflatrock 173-67 72.08 2022
2 birdjam 173-67 72.08 2020
3 PAVolFan 175-65 72.92 2016
4 GeorgeMonkey 170-70 70.83 2014
5 corn from a jar 168-72 70.00 2003
6 memphispete 173-67 72.08 2000
7 LuckyGuess 168-72 70.00 1992
8 C_hawkfan 178-62 74.17 1966
9 joeb_1 163-77 67.92 1960
10 Hixson Vol1 172-68 71.67 1959
11 jfarrar90 166-74 69.17 1954
12 Displaced_Vol_Fan 166-74 69.17 1949
13 hounddog3 166-74 69.17 1948
14 cnyvol 169-71 70.42 1944
15 Joel @ GRT 169-71 70.42 1943
16 ChuckieTVol 170-70 70.83 1937
17 UTSeven 157-83 65.42 1932
18 trdlgmsr 163-77 67.92 1931
19 daetilus 160-80 66.67 1922
19 Anaconda 155-85 64.58 1922
21 alanmar 167-73 69.58 1921
22 Phonies 164-76 68.33 1917
22 boro wvvol 162-78 67.50 1917
24 TennRebel 162-78 67.50 1910
25 Raven17 159-81 66.25 1909
26 Harley 163-77 67.92 1904
27 Bulldog 85 163-77 67.92 1901
27 Rossboro 159-81 66.25 1901
29 mmmjtx 165-75 68.75 1890
30 DinnerJacket 161-79 67.08 1889
31 keepontruckin 153-87 63.75 1878
32 ga26engr 165-75 68.75 1875
33 Sam 162-78 67.50 1862
34 Crusher 161-79 67.08 1854
35 ctull 151-89 62.92 1848
35 claireb7tx 159-81 66.25 1848
37 Jahiegel 156-84 65.00 1843
37 ltvol99 169-71 70.42 1843
39 doritoscowboy 161-79 67.08 1842
40 Orange On Orange 146-94 60.83 1823
41 Jayyyy 143-97 59.58 1816
42 tbone 153-87 63.75 1800
43 ddayvolsfan 162-78 67.50 1799
44 rsbrooks25 164-76 68.33 1788
45 rollervol 158-82 65.83 1786
46 HUTCH 155-85 64.58 1773
47 TennVol95 in 3D! 148-92 61.67 1770
48 waitwhereami 136-104 56.67 1765
49 Knottfair 132-108 55.00 1760
50 Wilk21 150-90 62.50 1756
51 mariettavol 131-109 54.58 1752
52 bluelite 147-93 61.25 1749
53 Neil Neisner 146-94 60.83 1738
54 Hjohn 144-96 60.00 1710
55 patmd 149-91 62.08 1679
56 PensacolaVolFan 147-93 61.25 1667
57 Timbuktu126 132-108 55.00 1658
58 jeremy.waldroop 108-132 45.00 1657
59 dgibbs 118-122 49.17 1650
60 vols95 114-126 47.50 1627
61 VillaVol 103-137 42.92 1496
62 rockytopinKy 95-145 39.58 1491
63 Orange Swarm 85-155 35.42 1476
64 Will Shelton 52-188 21.67 1363
65 OriginalVol1814 56-184 23.33 1361
66 aaron217 63-177 26.25 1356
67 BZACHARY 74-166 30.83 1353
68 tpi 54-186 22.50 1298
69 RockyPopPicks 33-207 13.75 1291
70 Willewillm 25-215 10.42 1204
71 Jrstep 34-206 14.17 1198
72 BristVol 26-214 10.83 1179
73 Dmorton 27-213 11.25 1176
74 Caban Greys 13-227 5.42 1166
75 tallahasseevol 14-226 5.83 1156
76 orange_devil87 15-225 6.25 1154
76 If you ain�t first you�re 13-227 5.42 1154
76 JLPasour 14-226 5.83 1154
79 Aaron Birkholz 13-227 5.42 1145
80 ed75 13-227 5.42 1141
81 Salty Seth 12-228 5.00 1131
82 Techboy 11-229 4.58 1130
83 waltsspac 11-229 4.58 1127
84 cactusvol 12-228 5.00 1121
85 VFL49er 4-236 1.67 1070
86 Teri28 5-235 2.08 1023
87 UTVols18 0-240 0.00 1022
87 ddutcher 0-240 0.00 1022
87 mmb61 0-240 0.00 1022

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: Missouri and Vandy

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

The Vols were off this week, so there’s no change in expectations there. And Vanderbilt looked about the same as usual, so there’s no change there. Missouri, well . . . Kelly Bryant played, so that made me more uncomfortable about him playing next week against the Vols, but the Tigers offense still struggled even with him at the helm and the team at home. So no change for me there, either.

My current expected win total is still 6.4. I think 6 wins is pretty safe, and hitting the preseason goal of 7-5 will all come down to the Missouri game. That, by the way, would also mean that the team beat our GRT 2019 magazine preseason goals of finishing 4th in the SEC East behind Missouri despite playing much of the season without the guy on the cover. Win both remaining games, and the Vols finish 5-3, and the closest Missouri could get would be 4-4. These are eggs and not chickens, though, so Tennessee needs to keep them safe and warm for two more weeks.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6
  • After Week 10: 5.9
  • After Week 11: 6.4
  • After Week 12: 6.4

Details: I still have Missouri at 60% and Vanderbilt at 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East

Off this week.

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-5 (2-4), 4th in the SEC East

Kelly Bryant played this week for Missouri against the Gators, and he was slippery but the offense was still mostly ineffective, and the team is now on a four-game losing streak. The Tigers defense was tough in the first half, but Florida still ended up getting 23 against them. The SPM hasn’t liked Tennessee in this one all season — until this week, and now it’s looking like it’s going to come down to keeping Bryant from getting back on track.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-8 (1-6), 7th in the SEC East

As Will has been fond of saying the past several weeks, Vanderbilt is just a bad football team. Against Kentucky this weekend, they managed only 198 yards of offense while giving up 528 yards to the Wildcats. If it weren’t for the recent history of struggles, we wouldn’t be worried about these guys at all.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-4 (3-3), 3rd in the Sun Belt East

There’s no shame in losing to App State, and sitting at 6-4 with two winnable games to go after a 2-10 season last year has to feel good for the Panthers.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 6-4

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 6-5 (5-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 9-2 (6-2), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 1st in the SEC East

Georgia looked good against Auburn and had the game well in hand until Auburn caught some lightning and made a game of it. The Tigers actually ended up with more yards and more first downs than the Bulldogs, but it was too late. With the Gators and Tigers now behind them, Georgia looks ready to roll the rest of the way home into the post-season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-6 (2-5), 5th in the SEC West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 9-1 (6-1), 2nd in the SEC West

Prayers for Tua. To make the SEC Championship Game again this year, Alabama would have to win out (including the Iron Bowl) and have LSU lose twice. The former is possible, even without Tua, but one of LSU’s remaining games is against Arkansas. In other words, LSU is not going to lose twice.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-7 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

We warned in our preseason magazine that South Carolina had the toughest schedule in the SEC and that the Gamecocks could struggle even if they were good. It’s hard to say at this point whether they’re actually good, but there can be no doubt that they have succumbed to that brutal schedule. They’ve lost 7 games already with only No. 3 Clemson left, and they’re likely to finish this season 4-8 and home for the holidays.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 7-3 (4-2), 3rd in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 5-5 (3-5), 4th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Tennessee 75 Washington 62: We Should’ve Known

The big picture questions of this season revolved around what the Vols could/would do in the paint. Kyle’s gone, Grant’s gone, Admiral’s gone, Uros is ineligible, Pons is playing the four. #20 Washington provided an excellent early test, with three 6’9″ starters, one of them a top five freshman, and plenty of shot blocking.

And Tennessee did the simple things to absolute perfection.

Maybe we’re still a little hesitant to believe the most straightforward answers to those questions could all be real without all that cast from last season. But Tennessee took down Washington’s length by absolutely wearing out its zone defense with the same free throw line jumper it worked so well last season. I thought the Vols needed Williams inside to get those kind of looks. Turns out, at least today, nope: Tennessee shot 47.2% from the floor against what was the #13 defense in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. The Huskies allowed 31.2% from inside the arc in their first two games. Tennessee opened up a 12-point halftime lead behind Jordan Bowden, John Fulkerson, and Yves Pons knocking down open jumper after open jumper.

It’s only three games, but it feels like it’s time to start assuming good things from Yves Pons. Bowden took 13 shots to tie for Tennessee’s lead…with Pons, who hit seven shots and finished with 15 points. He splashed another three, and he can still do this:

What seemed like a stop-gap measure has turned into an actual strength on both ends of the floor. Pons isn’t just the best available option at the four. He could end up one of the best in the league. Once again, Rick Barnes and company are transforming a player with incredible speed and efficiency.

With Plavsic, I wondered who else the Vols would play beyond a seven-man rotation. Without Plavsic, Tennessee plugged in Olivier Nkamhoua – two blocks of his own – and ran a seven-man rotation just fine. Would something like that work in SEC grind? Not sure. But tonight, Tennessee’s seven jumped Washington 14-5 in the first five minutes. Washington got no closer than five the rest of the way, and no closer than seven in the second half.

The Vols are now 7-7 against ranked foes in the last three seasons. In Bruce Pearl’s six-year tenure, Tennessee went 23-21 against ranked foes. You needed to see one to believe it, perhaps, but Barnes and company will have the Vols back in the Top 25, and back chasing the same expectations now, not later.

And they’re doing all of it without any revelation from five-star Josiah James, free to come along nicely with a 4-of-4 performance from the floor tonight and the J.P. Prince Stat Line of the Game: 9 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 3 turnovers, 3 fouls.

The Vols return home to face Alabama State on Wednesday (0-3 and lost to Gonzaga by 31), then host Chattanooga on Monday, November 25. Then it’s off to Destin for the next big test against Florida State and either VCU or Purdue. The way things are going, the Vols might go from scrappy rebuild on the fly to the highest-ranked team in the field.

We’ll worry about that later. For now, this was a big, validating win: old faces, new roles, same result.

Go Vols.

Bye Week Big Board – In the Trenches and On Defense

With the Vols on their second of two bye weeks of the season, the Tennessee staff will not only take the opportunity to rest its team and develop its younger players but also reassess its 2020 recruiting board.  They’ll likely hit the road and touch base with prospects while at the same time likely handing out at least a handful of new offers.  After previously looking at the Offensive Big Board, below we’ll take a look at the Defensive and Offensive Line boards and evaluate where these prospects sit on Tennessee’s board as well as their reciprocal interest.  As a reminder, the Vols currently have 18 commitments, giving them 7-8 spots to work with and multiple needs to address:

OL

Current commitments:

James Robinson

Cooper Mays

Javontez Spraggins

Kyree Miller

Prospects:

Chris Morris (Texas A&M commitment)

Marcus Henderson

RJ Adams

Jeremy Flax (JUCO)

With four really strong OL commitments, including at least a couple who can play multiple positions once they get to college, OL is the position where the Vols both can afford to be picky and also potentially pass on adding another player altogether.  To that point, OL is almost certainly to be a Best Player Available position, where Tennessee likely fills needs elsewhere before taking another OL.  That’s speculation, and it does seem like if Chris Morris specifically called and wanted in the Vols would be hard pressed to tell them no.  Morris is a very good prospect who Tennessee has recruited for over a year, and it seems certain that they will try and get him back to Knoxville at least one time before he signs.  Henderson is a fellow Memphis native (though Morris now plays football in West Memphis, AR) whose recruitment has been a bit of a rollercoaster after starting as a highly coveted prospect, dropping off a lot of radars due to putting on bad weight, and then heating back up again thanks to a strong senior season.  He’s tentatively scheduled to OV to Tennessee for the Vanderbilt game, and from there it will be interesting to see what the Vols think.  Adams is an Under Armour All-American who likely projects more as an(other) interior OL prospect.  The former PSU commitment visited unofficially for Tennessee’s UAB weekend and by all accounts is very interested in returning for an OV.  Flax is very intriguing – a big (6’6, 320) pure OT JUCO prospect with three seasons of eligibility (ala Jahmir Johnson) that makes him less of a “risk” than your normal JUCO OL.  He’s got recent offers from UK, Louisville, and Texas Tech along with his new Vol offer.  Whether he ends up visiting or not is TBD, and his spot on the board will be better known once that is worked out.

DL

Current commitment:

Dominic Bailey

Prospects:

Tyler Baron

Octavius Oxendine

Omari Thomas

Jay Hardy (AU commitment)

Reginald Perry

Damarjhe Lewis

Yaya Diaby (JUCO)

Without a doubt a huge area of need in this (and every) class, Tennessee has put itself in a position where it can either hit a grand slam or strike out.  Bailey is a top-shelf product and a good anchor for the DL class himself, providing some positional versatility along the DL.  He’s a guy you happily take in every DL class and has been solid since his commitment many months ago.  From there, most of the board is relatively well-known.  It seems unlikely that a scenario would arise in which Tennessee wouldn’t take Baron (who some might characterize as a pass-rushing OLB but from here projects as a DL fairly soon in his career), Oxendine, and Thomas.  Those are all high-level SEC DL prospects who bring the kind of size and talent that Tennessee must continue to stack at the position.  Baron continues to flirt with Kentucky and to a lesser extent OSU, but in the end it’s really hard to see him going anywhere other than Tennessee.  Oxendine is another UT-UK battle that the Vols appear to be winning (right now), whlile Thomas is a UT-Ole Miss recruitment that will ultimately come down to head and heart (Tennessee) vs. logistics (Ole Miss) for the Memphis native.  Hardy, who most know shocked everyone by committing to the Tigers instead of the homestate Vols, is also still a take – the Vols will likely try and quickly figure out what went wrong with a legacy who visited campus upwards of a dozen times and yet chose someone else.  Whether it’s his position coach not being his main recruiter or simply not getting enough love if the staff felt he was in the bag (and by all accounts they had every reason to since he told them he was coming on multiple occasions), something happened and Tennessee needs to figure it out quickly.  Perry is a good looking prospect in his own right – big and powerful yet not lacking quickness – who is visiting officially for the Vanderbilt game.  The Vols will hope to have some clarity on at least a handful of other targets – at DL and other positions – before deciding how hard to push for him.  Lewis is a former Auburn commitment who’s stock has dropped from where it was last spring but is still a possibility for the Vols depending on how the chips fall, and Diaby is a new offer from the JUCO ranks.  Frankly, given that Tennessee loses seven(!) DL after the 2020 season due to graduation the idea of bringing in a guy who would only have one more year of eligibility after that doesn’t make a ton of sense unless the staff thinks he’s a future NFL player.

OLB

Current commitment:

Jimari Butler

Prospects:

Morven Joseph (FSU commit)

Jevon Banks (Mississippi State commit)

Simeon Barrow (Michigan State commit)

Jasheen Davis (WF commit)

Khari Coleman (Kansas commit)

Jonathan Horton

Sa’vell Smalls (Washington commit)

Butler is a guy who we’re very high on, and a nice recovery for Tennessee from an evaluation perspective after losing the commitment of BJ Ojulari to LSU.  The Vols could use at least one more edge rusher/OLB in this class, and if they got the right combination of the above they’d likely take more than one.  We broke down the board pretty thoroughly here, even before the Butler commitment, and not much has changed since.  Joseph and Banks have both scheduled for their respective official visits to Knoxville for the Vanderbilt game, while the Vols have continued to try with especially Smalls as recruiting ace Brian Niedermeyer checks on him each time he heads out on his 5-Star West Coast tour.      

ILB

Current commitment:

Bryson Eason

Martavius French

Tamarion McDonald

Prospects:

Len’neth Whitehead

Desmond Tisdol

Vai Kaho

Noah Sewell

One could make the case that only Eason will end up as an ILB from the committed group above, as French could easily project to the DL or even OLB while McDonald could end up playing some sort of Nickel/Money/Safety hybrid position.  That said, all are high level who check a lot of boxes for the Vols.  Whitehead and Tisdol are likely both Tennessee leans at this point (Tisdol has actually named the Vols as his leader) and also both multi-positional prospects who could play LB or RB, and both recruitments having seen ebbs and flows in terms of the Vols.  Whitehead was thought to be close to committing to Tennessee when he took his OV for the Georgia State debacle, then was close to pledging the South Carolina over the last couple of months.  However, with the turmoil in Columbia the Vols have sensed an opportunity and pounced, and right now Whitehead looks like Tennessee’s to lose.  Whitehead has stated his preference for playing RB, and that’s where he’ll get his first shot; however, the money here is on him realizing quickly that he can be an All-SEC LB and the defensive minded Jeremy Pruitt helping him figure that out.  Tisdol was also once a Gamecock lean, but that was after he was close to committing to Auburn first.  Per 247Sports, Auburn coaches are particularly high on his potential at LB and the Tigers have tried to circle back to him since they lost the commitment of 5-star Trenton Simpson.  Tisdol is also a good looking RB prospect.  Again however, he likely has a higher ceiling in college at ILB, and ideally the Vols would land a higher level pure RB prospect.  The question is whether or not there are enough spots to take both Whitehead AND Tisdol AND another pure RB. In terms of timing, Whitehead will likely make it back to Knoxvulle and then potentially commit before Tisdol’s OV the 12/13 weekend, though Tisdol could be incentivized to try and jump in ahead of him – Tennessee coaches will have to figure out how to manage all of that.  In the meantime, Kaho has emerged as a legitimate target at ILB.  Like Tisdol he’s on the shorter side in the 6’0-6’1 range, but the Nevada commitment from Reno has seen his stock rise of late.  The Polynesian Bowl honoree is clearly not a firm Wolfpack commitment, as his official visit to Knoxville for the Vanderbilt game will have been preceded by an OV to Colorado in October.  His brother Ale is a scholarship LB at Alabama, so distance is likely not a factor – additionally Ale is apparently universally thought to be underutilized in Tuscaloosa, so if they could “convince” him to take his talents to Tennessee by signing Vai we’d be all for it.  Just sayin’.  Sewell is a well-known prospect to UT fans and another of the 5-star players who Niedermeyer continues to try and keep the Vols involved with.  Thought to be an Oregon-Georgia battle, Sewell is a freakish player whose brother plays for the Ducks as one of if not the best OL in the country.  Obviously the Vols would prefer for him to stay out West should he not come to Knoxville, but they won’t stop trying to get Sewell back for an OV.  He’s one of a few prospects for whom the Vols would 100% make room if he wanted to come.

DB

Current commitment:

Keshawn Lawrence

Mordecai McDaniel

Art Green

Prospects:

Kendall Dennis

Emmanuel Appiah (JUCO)

Ramon Henderson

Ronald Williams (JUCO)

Joel Williams

Tommy Wright

Decamerion Richardson

The Vols have a nice group of commitments so far in the secondary, with three players who could all potentially play multiple positions.  Lawrence and McDaniel in particular are stud athletes and will bring a swagger to the Tennessee defensive backfield that has been building that with the additions of guys like Alontae Taylor, Bryce Thompson, and Jaylen McCullough.  Green has had a somewhat subpar season that has seen his stock drop according to the recruiting gurus, but he’s an early enrollee with really good size who’s played both S and CB in Junior College so as long as the coaches are sold on him there is little reason to worry. 

In a world in which numbers didn’t matter, it would make sense to add a 4th DB to this class.  Obviously that’s not the case, so it’s quite likely that in order for any of the DBs on the board to be takes it will have to be in a Best Player Available situation.  Dennis unofficially visited Knoxville a couple of times over the summer but has been thought to be an Auburn lean for a while now.  He’s tentatively scheduled for an OV for the Vanderbilt game.  Appiah is a relatively new addition to the board and is another DB who the Vols and Auburn could battle it out for.  The NJ native is a close friend of Jarrett Guarantano and has had a huge season.  He’s also an EE, which makes him a more attractive prospect as someone more likely to make a quick impact.  He’s scheduled to visit the 12/13 weekend.  Henderson is a relatively new name on the board and someone Tee Martin has been quietly working on.  A guy who could play on either side of the ball, Henderson is another EE scheduled for the Vanderbilt game and the 4-star will decide between OU, Notre Dame, UCLA, Utah and the Vols.  Ronald Williams has become a much more highly coveted prospect with recent offers from the likes of Alabama, while Joel Williams has been on the scene for a while and is a former UF commitment whose interest in and from the Vols has vacillated throughout the process.  Neither those two nor Wright and Richardson – two other recent offers – currently have OVs scheduled to Tennessee right now. 

Tennessee vs Washington Preview

The good news: a bye week isn’t really a bye week when your basketball team is playing a Top 20 opponent. The bad news: because everyone not on a bye is still playing football, all your television channels are spoken for. So we welcome the Vols to ESPN+, which means you can watch this game for $4.99 (per month if you don’t cancel it) or as part of an expanded Disney+ subscription.

A tangent: Tennessee’s football media guide includes a section called “Vols On Television”, a ludicrous premise to anyone under the age of 30. You have to go back to a game between the 4-4 Vols and Memphis in November 1994 to find the last time a Tennessee football game simply wasn’t available to watch. But between 1989 all the way up to the first game of the Butch Jones era, VideoSeat carried 47 Tennessee football games on pay per view; some who lived outside the Volunteer State in the latter part of that run will remember fondly the old ESPN GamePlan package carrying these games. The first one of those PPV games is the most famous: September 9, 1989, when the Vols went to #6 UCLA late on the east coast and rolled to a 24-6 victory, sparking Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001. The media guide lists the Vols as 46-1 in those games (thanks, Wyoming); it’s the nature of the beast that they’d be less interesting.

Even the term “pay per view” seems strange now unless you’re a wrestling fan, and it may fade from that vocabulary too over time. The good news for basketball: the Vols aren’t playing Austin Peay, and you’re getting #20 Washington at a much better price.

The Huskies leaped from the also receiving votes pile with a stunning comeback against #16 Baylor in the Armed Forces Classic from Anchorage. Baylor went up 10 with 5:38 to play. They hit a single free throw the rest of the way home.

Tennessee might see each of the three highest-rated freshmen in college basketball this season. We’ll see what happens with James Wiseman at number one. Anthony Edwards – there’s two o’s in Goose – is at Georgia, he’s number two. And number three is Isaiah Stewart, a 6’9″ 245 lbs. forward at UDub. They threw him in the fire right away with 36 minutes against Baylor, and he went 7-of-13 for 15 points and 7 rebounds. Fellow 6’9″ Top 10 freshman Jaden McDaniels played 33 minutes and had 18 points, going 7-of-8 at the line.

The leading scorer was 6’6″ junior Nahziah Carter with 23 points on 4-of-6 from the arc. And you’ll remember Quade Green, who transferred from Kentucky. He scored double figures in each of the 2018 UT/UK games; it’s a different role here, as he had only two points but dished out nine assists for the Huskies in the opener.

Washington was already pulling in elite talent: Markelle Fultz was the top pick in the 2017 draft, and Matisse Thybulle is getting 15 minutes a night as a rookie with the Sixers. But the transition from Lorenzo Romar to Mike Hopkins following a 9-22 finish with both of them on the roster has led to actual wins. Hopkins was an assistant at Syracuse for more than 20 years, the coach-in-waiting for Jim Boeheim who, it seems, got tired of waiting. Washington rebounded to 21-13 and an NIT appearance in Hopkins’ first year, then 27-9 with a Pac-12 title last season. They routed Utah State in an 8/9 game, then got routed by North Carolina.

After finishing 224th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings in 2017, Hopkins has made defense the focus: 73rd in 2018, 18th last season, and 13th in the early stages this year. The big freshmen protect the rim, and they do not tolerate nonsense: McDaniels and 6’9″ junior Hameir Wright each blocked four shots in the opener, then Stewart got five against Mount St. Mary’s. If we don’t get at least one good showdown between Yves Pons and one of these dudes, I’ll be disappointed.

So there are obvious issues for Tennessee in going against a lineup featuring three 6’9″ guys. It’s a thin bench for Washington, so foul trouble becomes an issue both ways. The Vols haven’t done much in the way of getting to the line in the first two games, and are shooting just 60% when they arrive. What Tennessee did do was torch Murray State from the arc at 12-of-22. Getting a high volume of shots from three was sometimes a sign of trouble last season. But without Williams, Schofield, and Alexander, the Vols may lean more toward the three this season. Washington’s excellent rim protection should be a good indicator of how Barnes sees that dilemma.

But what also comes with playing a bunch of freshmen: turnovers. The Huskies survived 20 in the opener, then added 15 including five from McDaniels against Mount St. Mary’s. The Huskies are giving it away on 25.1% of their possessions. That’s opportunity.

Here’s a phrase you don’t really use when you spend a month at number one, but might be applicable some this season: Washington might be a bad match-up for Tennessee. This combination of size and skill is rare, and will be the biggest test for Pons, Fulkerson, and certainly Nkamhoua to date. You won’t see much of the Huskies playing so far away, but they’ll be worth keeping an eye on; the Bracket Matrix has them as a nine seed, but the ceiling is obviously quite high.

This first run of marquee non-conference foes features Tennessee – a seven seed in the Bracket Matrix – going against teams right on their level. Washington is ranked 20th, and all four teams in the Emerald Coast Classic – the Vols, Florida State, VCU, and Purdue – are between 26-32 in also receiving votes. Group them together, and 2-1 would be a job well done. But we’re not used to thinking that way after last season…and there’s no reason to start until losing makes you.

Can the more experienced Vols impose their will, turn Washington over, and shoot well enough from three to get the win in Toronto? The first real answers will come Saturday at 5:00 PM on ESPN+.

Go Vols.

Looking back on the Vols’ 2017 coaching candidates

This past summer, after Jeremy Pruitt had his first full season as Tennessee’s head coach under his belt, we looked back on the long list of Vols’ coaching candidates to see how they did in 2018 relative to Pruitt. Now that Pruitt has turned a 1-4 beginning in 2019 into a 4-1 hot streak, we thought we’d use the second bye week of the season to take another peek.

This is a long post. The details of each candidate’s updates are below, but I’ve included my own re-ranking both here at the top and at the bottom for the sake of convenience and in the interest of fighting back against carpal tunnel.

Here’s my re-ranking as of right now:

Good bets

  1. Dan Mullen
  2. Jeremy Pruitt
  3. Jimbo Fisher
  4. Gary Patterson
  5. Matt Campbell
  6. Justin Fuente
  7. Mike Norvell
  8. Mike Leach
  9. Les Miles
  10. P.J. Fleck
  11. Joe Moorhead
  12. Jeff Brohm

Calculated risks

  1. Lane Kiffin
  2. Chip Kelly
  3. Jon Gruden
  4. Charlie Strong
  5. Scott Frost
  6. Mel Tucker
  7. Mike Bobo

Unknowns (as head coach)

  1. Brent Venables
  2. Kevin Steele
  3. Tee Martin

Goodness, what did we almost do?

  1. Chad Morris
  2. Willie Taggart
  3. Greg Schiano
  4. Bobby Petrino
  5. D.J. Durkin

Head coaches hired as head coaches

1. Dan Mullen

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Florida
  • Went 10-3 (5-3), tied for 2nd in the SEC East
  • Beat No. 23 Mississippi State, No. 5 LSU, and No. 7 Michigan
  • Only losses were to Kentucky, Missouri, and No. 7 Georgia

2019 so far

  • Currently 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East
  • Beat then No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
  • Lost to then No. 5 LSU 42-28 and No. 8 Georgia 24-17
  • Team is currently No. 11 in the CFP rankings
  • On pace to exceed GRT 2019 expectations

2. Jimbo Fisher

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Texas A&M
  • Went 9-4 (5-3), tied for 2nd in the SEC West, No. 16 in both polls
  • Beat No. 13 Kentucky, No. 7 LSU, a bunch of others; lost by only 2 to No. 2 Clemson

2019 so far

  • Currently 6-3 (3-2), 4th in the SEC West
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Lost to No. 1 Clemson 24-10, No. 8 Auburn 28-20, and No. 1 Alabama 47-28
  • Not ranked in the CFP rankings
  • On pace to meet or exceed GRT 2019 expectations

3. Willie Taggart

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Florida State
  • Went 5-7 (3-5), tied for 5th in the ACC Atlantic
  • Beat No. 20 Boston College, but lost to No. 20 Virginia Tech, No. 17 Miami, No. 2 Clemson, No. 21 NC State, No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 11, and unranked Syracuse.

2019

  • Fired mid-season after a 4-5 (3-4) start capped by a 27-10 loss to rival Miami

4. Jon Gruden

2018

  • Hired as head coach at the NFL’s Oakland Raiders
  • Went 4-12, beating only Cleveland (in OT), Arizona (by 2), Pittsburgh (by 3), and Denver

2019 so far

  • Currently 5-4, 2nd in the AFC West

5. Scott Frost

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Nebraska
  • Went 4-8 (3-6); Beat only Minnesota, Bethune-Cookman, Illinois, and Michigan State, all unranked

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-4), 6th in the Big Ten West
  • Only wins over South Alabama, Northern Illinois, Illinois, Northwestern
  • Currently on a three-game losing streak to then-unranked teams

Coordinators hired as head coaches

1A. Joe Moorhead

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Mississippi State
  • Went 8-5 (4-4), 4th in SEC West
  • Beat No. 8 Auburn, No. 16 Texas A&M, and others; finished No. 25 in the Coaches Poll

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West
  • Lost four of the past five games, with the lone win coming against an Arkansas team that just fired its Year 2 coach
  • Will fail to meet GRT 2019 expectations by at least two games

1B. Jeremy Pruitt

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Tennessee
  • Went 5-7 (2-6), last in the SEC East
  • Beat No. 21 Auburn and No. 11 Kentucky, but lost to No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Georgia, No. 17 West Virginia, and unranked Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt

2019 so far

  • Currently 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East
  • Won four of the last five games, with the one loss coming to No. 1 Alabama
  • Two bad losses to unranked teams to begin the season
  • Other three losses all to Top 10 teams
  • On pace to meet GRT 2019 expectations overall, to exceed expectations for the SEC

3. Chip Kelly

2018

  • Hired as head coach at UCLA
  • Went 3-9 (3-6), 5th in the Pac-12 South
  • Only wins were against California, Arizona, and USC, all unranked

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Pac 12 South
  • Started the season 1-5 (1-2)
  • Currently on a three-game win streak, which includes a win over No. 24 Arizona State

4. Chad Morris

2018

  • Hired as head coach at Arkansas
  • Went 2-10 (0-8), last in the SEC West
  • Only beat Eastern Illinois and Tulsa

2019 so far

  • Fired mid-season after a 2-8 (0-6) start, on the heels of a non-competitive seven-game losing streak

Candidates who got fired shortly after we were talking about hiring them

The next three guys not only didn’t get any offer compelling enough to move somewhere, they couldn’t even keep their existing jobs for one more season.

Greg Schiano

2018

  • Remained as defensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2018.
  • When Urban Meyer was suspended for three games, he handed the reins not to Schiano but to offensive coordinator Ryan Day.
  • The Buckeyes defense was not as good in 2018, and when Meyer retired at the end of the season, Day was made head coach. He did not retain Schiano after the season.
  • Schiano was hired as defensive coordinator for New England in February, 2019, but left after only a month.

2019 so far

  • Likely to return to Rutgers to take the open head coaching job

Bobby Petrino

2018

  • Remained at Louisville as head coach until he was fired in November
  • Team went 2-10 (0-8), last in ACC Atlantic
  • Only wins were against Indiana State and Western Kentucky

2019 so far

  • Back on the coaching carousel this November

D.J. Durkin

2018

In fall camp last year, a player died, and allegations of toxic culture under Durkin led to his suspension. He was later reinstated for a day and then fired.

2019 so far

Currently a consultant for the Atlanta Falcons.

Head coaches who stayed put

1. Mike Leach

2018

  • Basically hired by John Currie, who apparently did not have the authority to do so
  • Stayed at Washington State
  • Went 11-2 (7-2) and tied for first in the Pac-12 North
  • Beat No. 12 Oregon, No. 24 Stanford, but lost to No. 16 Washington. Beat No. 24 Iowa State in the Valero Alamo Bowl
  • Finished No. 10 in the AP and Coaches polls

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (1-5), 6th in the Pac 12 North
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Lost five of the last six games

2. Les Miles (former head coach, unemployed in both 2017 and 2018)

2018

  • Not hired by anyone until after the season.
  • Now head coach at Kansas for 2019

2019 so far

  • Currently 3-6 (1-5), 9th in the Big 12
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Lost five of the last six games, although this stretch includes a two-point loss to No. 15 Texas
  • Has Kansas much more competitive than in the past

3. Matt Campbell

2018

  • Remained at Iowa State as head coach
  • Went 8-5 (6-3), tied for 3rd in the Big 12
  • Beat No. 25 Oklahoma State, No. 6 West Virginia, and several others

2019 so far

  • Currently 5-4 (3-3), 4th in the Big 12
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Two one-point losses to No. 19 Iowa and No. 9 Oklahoma

4. Mike Norvell

2018

  • Remained at Memphis as head coach
  • Went 8-6 (5-3), tied for 1st in the American West
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 8-1 (4-1), 3rd in the American Athletic West
  • One win over a ranked team: 54-48 over No. 15 SMU
  • Currently No. 18 in the CFP rankings

5. Gary Patterson

2018

  • Stayed at TCU as head coach
  • Went 7-6 (4-5), tied for 5th in the Big 12
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-4), 7th in the Big 12
  • Beat No. 15 Texas, 37-27
  • Lost to No. 12 Baylor, 29-23 in 3OT
  • All losses but one (to Iowa State) were one-possession games

6. Charlie Strong

2018

  • Stayed at South Florida as head coach
  • Went 7-6 (3-5), 4th in American East
  • No wins against ranked teams, and lost last six games

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (2-3), 4th in the American Athletic East
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • Only game against a ranked opponent resulted in a 49-0 loss to No. 19 Wisconsin
  • Two opportunities against No. 17 Cincinnati and No. 18 Memphis up next

7. P.J. Fleck

2018

  • Remained as head coach at Minnesota
  • Went 7-6 (3-6), tied for 5th in the Big 10 West
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 9-0 (6-0), 1st in the Big Ten West
  • One win over a ranked opponent, but it was a good one: 31-26 over No. 4 Penn State
  • Two more opportunities against ranked opponents to close out the season (No. 20 Iowa tomorrow and No. 14 Wisconsin on 11/30)

8. Justin Fuente

2018

  • Remained at Virginia Tech as head coach
  • Went 6-7 (4-4), tied for 3rd in ACC Coastal
  • Beat No. 19 Florida State, No. 22 Duke

2019 so far

  • Currently 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in the ACC Coastal
  • One win over a ranked team: 36-17 over No. 19 Wake Forest
  • One-point loss to No. 16 Notre Dame
  • Two other losses were one-possession to Boston College and a blowout loss to Duke

9. Jeff Brohm

2018

  • Remained at Purdue for his second season
  • Went 6-7 (5-4) and tied for second in the Big 10 West
  • Beat No. 2 Ohio State, No. 16 Iowa, and No. 23 Boston College, but lost to Northwestern, Eastern Michigan, Missouri, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Auburn, all unranked

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-6 (3-4), 5th in the Big Ten West
  • No wins over ranked teams
  • One-possession loss to No. 23 Iowa

10. Lane Kiffin

2018

  • Remained at Florida Atlantic as head coach
  • Went 5-7 (3-5), 5th in C-USA East
  • No wins against ranked teams

2019 so far

  • Currently 7-3 (5-1), 1st in Conference USA East
  • Two losses against No. 5 Ohio State and No. 18 UCF to start the season, then 7-1 the rest of the way

11. Mike Bobo

2018

  • Remained as head coach at Colorado State
  • Sidelined by health issues early, and team went 3-9 (2-6), 5th in MWC Mountain
  • Only wins were Arkansas, San Jose State, and New Mexico

2019 so far

  • Currently 4-5 (3-2), 4th in Mountain West Mountain
  • No wins over (or losses to) ranked teams

Coordinators who stayed put (at the time)

1. Brent Venables

2018

  • Remained at Clemson as DC
  • 5th nationally, 2nd in the ACC in total defense last year

2019 so far

  • Still at Clemson as DC
  • 4th nationally, 1st in the ACC in total defense

2. Mel Tucker

2018

  • Remained at Georgia as DC. Hired as head coach at Colorado for 2019.
  • 13th nationally and 2nd in the SEC in total defense last year

2019 so far

  • First year as head coach at Colorado
  • Currently 4-6 (2-5), 6th in the Pac 12 South
  • Two wins over then-ranked teams: 34-31 OT over No. 25 Nebraska, 34-31 over then No. 24 Arizona State
  • 1-5 over the last six games
  • Colorado was 5-7 each of the past two seasons before Tucker arrived

3. Kevin Steele

2018

  • Remained at Auburn as defensive coordinator
  • 38th nationally and 8th in the SEC in total defense

2019 so far

  • Still at Auburn as DC
  • 28th nationally and 4th in the SEC in total defense

4. Tee Martin

2018

  • Remained at USC as OC; was released along with most of the staff in late November
  • 83rd nationally and 10th in the Pac-12 in total offense last season
  • Hired as a wide receivers coach at Tennessee

2019 so far

  • Still coaching wide receivers at Tennessee

Re-ranking the 2017 Tennessee coaching candidates

Based on all of that, here’s how I’d rank them as of right now:

Good bets

  1. Dan Mullen
  2. Jeremy Pruitt
  3. Jimbo Fisher
  4. Gary Patterson
  5. Matt Campbell
  6. Justin Fuente
  7. Mike Norvell
  8. Mike Leach
  9. Les Miles
  10. P.J. Fleck
  11. Joe Moorhead
  12. Jeff Brohm

Calculated risks

  1. Lane Kiffin
  2. Chip Kelly
  3. Jon Gruden
  4. Charlie Strong
  5. Scott Frost
  6. Mel Tucker
  7. Mike Bobo

Unknowns (as head coach)

  1. Brent Venables
  2. Kevin Steele
  3. Tee Martin

Goodness, what did we almost do?

  1. Chad Morris
  2. Willie Taggart
  3. Greg Schiano
  4. Bobby Petrino
  5. D.J. Durkin

Your turn

What about you? How would you rank those guys now?

SPM picks: Week 12

Tennessee’s off again this week, so I figured we’d use this spot for an SPM update and its favorite picks for the week.

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

This week, the SPM went 25-23 (52.08%) overall. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was over a certain pre-determined number (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 12-5 (70.59%), and when the difference was over that number but under another pre-determined number (the “confidence range”), the SPM was 7-2 (77.78%).

For the season, the SPM is now 277-257 (51.87%) overall, 121-89 (57.62%) over the confidence threshold, and 70-37 (65.42%) in the confidence range.

SP+ finished last week at 26-22 (54.17%) and is still 55% on the season. Our SPM has had its legs for over a month now, but it still hasn’t caught up to SP+ for the season.

SPM favorite picks this week

Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:

What do y’all think?