Way back in 2009, I sat in the pressbox for Tennessee’s 31-16 win over a 2-10 Vanderbilt team that was largely in question late in the fourth quarter. But senior defensive tackle Wes Brown — his knees by then a painful mess of linguine — picked off an errant pass and rumbled 25 yards for the game-clinching touchdown. He dragged a Commodores offensive player the final 10 yards of his rumble, failing to be denied his moment.

I spoke with Wes’s parents and wrote a story about the play that turned into a story about his love affair with the Vols. Sure, we talked about the play, but that was secondary.

Here’s the thing about Wes: It wasn’t about “his” moment. It was never about him. I’ve struck up sort of an e-friendship with him in the years following the completion of his career, and we’ve spoken from time to time about his love for Tennessee, his passion about the Vols.

We have a lot in common to say the least.

Well, other than the fact he’s a former 4-star defender wanted by virtually every team in the SEC, and I am a short, fat dude who tries to string together words into coherent sentences. We both grew up on the Tennessee-Alabama line, had family who shaped our beliefs in the importance of Vols football, live and die with every play and absolutely despise Alabama. I like to think if I was ever talented enough to put on the orange and white (not even close) my career would have mirrored Wes’s.

He wanted to win more than anybody. Tennessee meant — means — so much to him. Wes impacted plenty of plays throughout a pain-filled career where, many times, he had to get days of treatment to even go out there and play at all, but he still went down in Tennessee lore. It’s impressive the things he accomplished, and he battled through some frustrating years to be a big part of Lane Kiffin’s ’09 rejuvenated UT team.

Is it sad that’s probably the last time I felt about a player the way I feel about this year’s group of seniors? Yes, it is. After all, that was unbelievably a decade ago. And there have been plenty of excellent UT players, heroes and even a legend or two sprinkled in, but this year’s group of seniors are different. They’ve bought into Jeremy Pruitt’s mentality, persevered through perhaps the most disappointing start to a Tennessee team in my lifetime, and they’ve got the potential to truly have a turnaround season.

No, they aren’t ever going to be part of something special in Knoxville, but it’s possible they’ve built the ground floor. (And, no, we’re not going to go into the bricks and foundation talk that were recited by me and others through the first couple of Butch Jones years.) Those senior classes fell apart, transferred, began to realize the carny barker’s slogans were shams. Whether you want to buy into what Pruitt is selling or not, there’s no question he knows football. There are some huge learning curves, and we’re still seeing that with his time-management struggles and some personnel decisions, but Pruitt is a known developer of talent, and that is shining through.

Look no further than the senior class. That’s why we’re here. Some of them have always been contributors who’ve blossomed into stars. For others, the light has only recently come on. But many of these guys are worthy of your attendance and your high-volume cheers on Senior Day tomorrow in Neyland Stadium.

It’s just a matter of which one — or ones — are going to have their Wes Brown moment. Even though the Vols are more than three-touchdown favorites, Vanderbilt has beaten UT three times in a row, and the game can be ugly, rugged and in need of a gamebreaker. It’s a good thing several of the guys playing their final game in Neyland Stadium are capable.

For Jauan Jennings, it will be the last time running through that Neyland Stadium tunnel and through the T to the roar of approving fans who have anointed him among their top all-time players. He’s certainly worthy. There hasn’t been a player will Tennessee to more wins other than perhaps Joshua Dobbs in the past decade. But, more than Dobbs, Jennings connects with fans; he walks the walk and plays with a “dog” mentality. When the pressure turns up, Jennings is right in the thick of it, and he rises to the occasion.

Like Wes Brown, Jauan gets it. Case in point when asked about UT fans and what they mean to him his week, he chirped:

“Everything,” he told Ben McKee. “Without them, it could be the complete opposite. I could not be here right now if the fans did not have my back. That’s why, every down, I give my all. It means more than just me.”

Through the coaching changes, him getting booted off the team for a tirade under interim coach Brady Hoke, the reVOLt, Pruitt’s first two years and more, Jennings has emerged as a player we all love because he plays with the defiance we feel. Again, he is worthy of our admiration and adoration.

Then there’s Daniel Bituli. This is a guy whose family fled the Congo in a life-or-death situation and settled in Nashville, Tennessee. So the ebbs and flows of his Tennessee career paled in comparison to the things that really matter. Still, he has emerged as a special player who has helped UT turn a corner on defense and become one of the stingiest units in the SEC over the last half of the season. Want a signature moment? How about his goal-line stop of Lynn Bowden that gave the Vols a win? He’s the leading tackler, the emotional leader and should play a long time on the next level.

Jennings’ wideout mate Marquez Callaway has always been a deep threat, one of the best in the nation at high-pointing a ball and coming down with 50-50 throws. It’s remarkable the number of times Jarrett Guarantano has asked him to make a play with his pass, and Callaway obliged. Just think of what he could have been without so many quarterback issues throughout his career. If there’s one player I feel like should have another year of eligibility it would be Quez. It just doesn’t seem like he should be a senior, and he’s going to be missed next year. He’s just another player Butch Jones should be ashamed of burning a year of eligibility when he had one catch for 13 yards back in 2016.

Darrell Taylor has come a long way from WGWTFA to now. As a lanky-but-talented 4-star recruit, we all had high hopes for the pass-rusher. He was a smack-talker early in his career (see the acronym), but he never really lived up to his potential until last season. Now, as a senior, he led the league in sacks much of the year but now is fourth, a half sack behind a three-way tie in first place.

That brings us to Nigel Warrior, a player we’ve all probably ripped more than anybody besides Guarantano over his career. The safety made us wait until National Signing Day to see whether he was going to follow in the footsteps of father and Vol legend Dale Carter or go to Georgia, Auburn or Ohio State. Once he chose UT, we had high hopes, but the light simply never came on. A few games into this season, it did, and Warrior has begun to play at a high level. His NFL potential is obvious, and he’s making plays all over the field. It’s just a shame we don’t have another year of it. Things started to materialize late for Warrior, but it’s just in time to help save this season.

Though Dominick Wood-Anderson‘s two years in Knoxville probably haven’t gone the way we all thought they would, the tight end was one of Pruitt’s first big signees, and he has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his couple of seasons. Yes, we’re all going to wonder what might have been with DWA’s career, but he has caught some passes and could have a big career on the next level.

Then there’s Tyler Byrd, and you shouldn’t forget about him. Like the others, he had his hero moment this year when he took a short pass and raced 39 yards for a clinching fourth-quarter touchdown in a 20-10 win over Mississippi State that turned the season. For a player who had so much expected of him but was jerked around from offense to defense back to offense and had issues with his hands and with finding a home, it was satisfying to see him be a part of a big win. He stuck around, and it paid off.

“Just got to keep hard working, and things don’t go your way all the time,” he told GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan. “But you just keep fighting, and hopefully the plays will come your way sometimes.”

That quote personifies the entire Vols senior class. All they’ve done is give us reasons to be excited heading into tomorrow’s game with Vanderbilt, made us hope, and it’ll be up to the classes behind them to show if they’ve spread the table for the feast. The way the past decade of UT football has gone, there’s no telling either way.

But they’ve done their part. They’ve given their all.

Jauan Jennings’ journey into the hearts of Vols fans began as just one of a group of highly-touted recruits in the 2015 class that ranked No. 4 in the nation. We see a handful of guys like this every year. They arrive on campus with great fanfare and promise, but whether their high school success translates to success in college is yet to be determined. Some never pan out, while some prove they belong. A few of them have special moments that make great memories, and a handful do so often enough that they become stars.

And every once in a while, one of them becomes a legend.

Act I

Although he was part of a recruiting class absolutely loaded with blue-chippers, it didn’t take long for Jennings to prove he belonged, even as a freshman on a team full of well-established playmakers:

Those were the days when Jennings was merely a sidekick, getting his feet wet in a supporting role to guys like Josh Dobbs. But he wouldn’t remain in a supporting role for long.

As a sophomore in 2016, Jennings played a starring role in a pair of plays against bitter rivals on consecutive weeks, iconic moments that immediately etched themselves forever into the minds of Vols fans: a losing-streak-busting, turning-point touchdown against Florida in the fourth game of the season, and a Hollywood-ending Hail Mary against Georgia in the fifth.

Florida, 2016: The Move

By Jennings’ sophomore season in 2016, Florida owned an 11-year winning streak over the Vols, and in an orange-and-white-checkered Neyland Stadium, the streak looked certain to extend to 12 as the Gators led 21-3 at halftime. But in the third quarter, Dobbs made it a game with two touchdown throws, one to running back Jalen Hurd and another to tight end Ethan Wolf, cutting the lead to 21-17.

But they were still behind and hadn’t yet gotten over the hump against the Gators. That is, until Jennings willed them past the tipping point: (video should start automatically at 3:02; stop it at 3:30)

That wasn’t just a go-ahead touchdown, it was brilliance with a backstory, as Jennings was so wide open because he put a move on mouthy defensive back Teez Tabor that got Tabor turned around and put him on the ground. Jennings bobbled the ball while tight-roping the sideline but hauled it in, stayed in bounds, and raced 67 yards to a Vols touchdown and a lead over Florida they wouldn’t relinquish.

That may have cemented all by itself Jennings’ reputation in Knoxville as one of Tennessee’s stars, but he would outdo himself the following week against the Georgia Bulldogs.

Georgia, 2016: The Catch

Sometimes a surprise twist ending can entirely overwhelm a really good drama, and that’s exactly what happened against Georgia the following week. The game started with the Bulldogs getting out to a 17-0 lead. Josh Dobbs managed a late first-half touchdown to make it 17-7, but the Bulldogs were in control. The teams traded scores in the third quarter, and then Tennessee scored another TD early in the fourth quarter to make it 24-21, Bulldogs.

And that’s when the drama started coming in waves, and when Jauan Jennings had the last word.

With Georgia pinned back deep due to an excellent punt, Tennessee’s Derek Barnett sacked quarterback Jacob Eason, causing him to fumble in his own end zone, and Corey Vereen fell on it. Suddenly, the Vols were up 28-24 with less than three minutes to go. Tennessee appeared to seal it with an interception on Georgia’s next drive, but then had to punt, giving the ball back to Georgia with a minute left. They moved the ball on three consecutive plays but were still 47 yards away from a needed touchdown and only had 10 seconds left to do it.

They did it.

And then they celebrated like they’d won the game and got a 15-yard penalty for doing so. After Evan Berry returned the kickoff 20 yards, the Vols had the ball back on the 43-yard line with 4 seconds to go.

Enter Jennings:

If you don’t yet have a full appreciation for that sequence of events, try this:

I’m a soft-spoken, generally reserved guy, but when that happened, I, too, ran out onto my front porch and yelled like the house was on fire. My neighbor across the street was doing the same thing. Thank you, Jauan.

Act II

That’s only Act I in the Jauan Jennings Story, though. In 2017, Jennings dislocated his wrist in the first game of the year against Georgia Tech, and the injury derailed his entire season. Jennings caught a lot of criticism for the way he handled the injury, as he reportedly made himself scarce, at practice and at games. He says now that he just wanted to play so badly that he couldn’t stand to be relegated to the sideline. If you’re skeptical of that, you’re not alone. From a distance, it seemed like hogwash, but I’ve seen enough videos of this guy after the fact, talking about it with tears in his eyes, to believe it now. The guy has a passion for football and his teammates that some of us just can’t fathom.

Apparently, the motivating force through his rehab that season was an intense desire to get back onto the field. He says he was told by the coaching staff that he could play in the final game against Vanderbilt if he got himself ready by then, so that was the goal he worked toward. It was plenty of motivation, because Jennings — a Murfreesboro native — has a special disdain for Vanderbilt.

Meanwhile, though, the 2017 team was going down the toilet. They started 3-1, but four consecutive losses, a meaningless win over Southern Miss, and another loss led to head coach Butch Jones getting fired. The team then lost to LSU under interim head coach Brady Hoke, and all they had left was one last game against Vanderbilt.

Jennings wanted to play against his favorite foe. He expected to play because he was told that he could. But the interim staff said he could not. Jennings lost his mind, and he did it on Instagram.

I normally wouldn’t even link to that video for a variety of reasons, but I do it here because it’s important for the contrast I’m about to draw. If you decide to watch it, you have to promise me that you’ll also watch all of the rest of the videos below.

That ill-advised public act of insubordination that brought additional negative publicity to the institution unsurprisingly resulted in Jennings’ dismissal from the football program. The dismissal itself wasn’t really a surprise, but the circumstances were certainly odd. The decision to dismiss Jennings was made by an interim coach and supported by an athletic director who himself would be fired shortly thereafter for other reasons.

After he’d cooled down and realized the consequences of what he’d done, Jennings apologized:

Yeah, he’s reading a statement. And yeah, it may have been written by someone else. But those tears signal one of two things: Either he meant what he said, or he wanted so desperately to play for Tennessee again that he would take it all back even though it was true. Either one of those interpretations is that Jennings was giving his all for Tennessee.

Shortly after that, Tennessee’s administration hired Phillip Fulmer as athletic director, and Fulmer hired Jeremy Pruitt as head coach, after a widely-reported and extremely embarrassing coaching search by the prior administration.

Act III

Pruitt had multiple issues to address when he arrived on campus, and one of them was to figure out what to do about Jauan. After asking around and getting green lights from people he trusted, he decided to let Jennings back on the team on the condition that Jennings had to do everything right and, more specifically, had to avoid doing anything that would embarrass the coach or the school.

Pruitt essentially put Jennings on a short leash. Here’s Jennings getting used to it back in 2018:

When you put a short leash on a fiery guy like Jennings, it generally goes one of two ways. Often, the guy builds up a gradual resentment toward the constant tug of the leash and, when adversity comes, he throws it off and blows his second chance. The other most common way it plays out is that the guy is essentially neutered into submission, and although he achieves compliance, he also loses the spirit that drives him to excel.

Jennings, though, Kobayashi-Marued that thing. He didn’t have to tame and domesticate his monster in order to control it. He just alpha-rolled it, wrestling it into submission to his better will. After all, it’s what Jauan Jennings does; he fights, and he wins.

This new Jennings continued to be tested, battered, and perfected by relentless adversity throughout the 2018 season and into 2019. Last year ended with a 5-7 record and an embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt, of all teams. And then the 2019 season kicked off with humiliation heaped on humiliation when the team lost as a heavy favorite to Georgia State despite heightened expectations heading into the season.

But all of this merely set the stage for the next iteration of Jauan Jennings. Now that he had control of his monster, he was going to use it (video starts at 3:39; stop it at 4:20):

The fire didn’t catch and spread right away, but by the fifth game of the season, any fan could tell that this team was different and that it was different largely because it started looking more like Jauan across the board. The players would not let any one thing put them on the ground, and when you did bring friends, they would fall forward and be the first ones up.

In other words, they would not be denied (video starts at 0:58, watch all the way through):

This one starts at 1:34; stop it at 2:12:

This one starts at 5:50; stop it at 6:10:

Legendary Tennessee linebacker Al Wilson was the engine that drove the Vols’ 1998 team to the national championship. It will be some time before the jury returns with a verdict on the question of whether the Tennessee program has finally reclaimed its rightful place in the SEC hierarchy, but if it happens soon, I have no doubt that we’ll look back on this particular time and say that it was Jauan Jennings who finally willed this giant truck out of the ditch.

I, for one, couldn’t be happier. Because as much as I’ve enjoyed watching Jauan play, I am thrilled at how he’s done it. It’s one thing to alpha-roll your opponents, but the elite learn to alpha-roll the enemy within, and few have done it as effectively as Jauan Jennings.

Jennings has one game left to play as a Tennessee Volunteer in Neyland Stadium. It’s fitting that it’s against Vanderbilt.

Go Jauan. Go Vols.

Happy Thanksgiving. We’re grateful for all y’all.

Tennessee opened as a 20-point favorite over the Commodores this week and started inching up from there. This Thanksgiving morning, it’s at -21.5. So . . . will the Vols cover against Vanderbilt Saturday night? Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say and whether I think it’s right this week.

Vols-Commodores

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points:

• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9
• Vanderbilt scoring defense for the season: 32.1

The Vanderbilt scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

• Mississippi State 28.8
• Georgia State 35.9

Tennessee scored 30 points against Georgia State and 20 against Mississippi State. That’s 77% of what those teams usually give up, so the SPM estimates 24.7 points for the Vols against Vandy.

Vanderbilt’s points:

• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.7
• Vanderbilt scoring offense for the season: 17.1

The Vanderbilt scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

• South Carolina 24.2
• Kentucky 24.6

Tennessee allowed only 13 points to Kentucky and 21 points to South Carolina, 70% of what those teams usually score. The SPM estimates 12 points for Vandy against the Vols.

Estimated score: Tennessee 24.7, Vanderbilt 12

From the perspective of Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt’s points:

• Vanderbilt scoring offense for the season: 17.1
• Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 22.7

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponent(s) (FBS only):

• LSU 23.5
• South Carolina 25

Against LSU, Vanderbilt scored 38 points against LSU but only 7 against South Carolina. Together, that’s 93% of what those teams usually allow. Estimated points for Vanderbilt against Tennessee: 21.1

Tennessee’s points:

• Vanderbilt scoring defense for the season: 32.1
• Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23.9

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Vanderbilt opponent(s):

• South Carolina 24.2
• Purdue 24.5

Purdue got 42 points against Vanderbilt, while South Carolina got its average of 24. Taken together, that’s 136% of what those guys usually get. The SPM estimates 32.5 points for the Vols against the ‘Dores.

Estimated score: Vanderbilt 21.1, Tennessee 32.5

Tennessee 28.6, Vanderbilt 16.5
Tennessee -12.1

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 28.6, Vanderbilt 16.5

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -12.1

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread: 7.9

This is not one of the SPM’s favorites this week, but it’s not far off, either.

Eyeball adjustments

I’m having trouble swallowing the estimate from Tennessee’s perspective of only 25 points for the Vols, based on the fact that Missouri’s defense is really good, Vanderbilt’s is not nearly as good, and Tennessee just put 24 on Missouri. The Vols got 120% of what the Tigers usually give up last week, and if they do that against Vandy, that would make it more like 39. I trust Tennessee’s points from Missouri’s perspective better (32.5), so let’s call it 33.

On Vandy’s points, there’s too big of a difference between what they got against LSU and what they got against South Carolina for me to totally trust the numbers from the ‘Dores’ perspective. It looks about right from the Vols’ perspective, although 12 feels maybe just a bit high to me based on just how terrible Vandy’s offense appears to be. For that reason, I’m going to knock it down to 10.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 10. The SPM doesn’t like the Vols to cover in this one, but I do.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 20-point favorites and it’s currently -21.5. With an over/under of 45.5, that translates to something like Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 12.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Tennessee 35-16 (Vols -19), and gives the Vols an 87% chance of winning.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 91.2% chance of winning. For the record, FPI has been too low on the Vols the last two weeks.

Bottom line

The SPM doesn’t like the Vols to cover this week as either the opening 20-point favorite or today’s 21.5-point favorite. It’s not in the sweet spot for the machine, though, and after an eyeball adjustment, I like them to cover.

• Vegas: Tennessee, -21.5 (~Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 12)
• SP+: Tennessee 35, Vanderbilt 16 (doesn’t cover)
• SPM: Tennessee 29, Vanderbilt 17 (doesn’t cover)
• Me: Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 10 (covers)

What do y’all think?

After a stretch of five-of-six weeks well over 50%, the SPM has now been under .500 two weeks in a row and is trying to get its groove back. Last week, it went 25-29 (46.30%) overall, 9-10 (47.37%) over the confidence threshold, and 7-6 (53.85%) on its favorites.

For the season, the SPM is now 326-313 (51.02%) overall, 136-106 (56.20%) over the confidence threshold, and 80-48 (62.50%) for the favorites.

Meanwhile, SP+ crushed it again last week, going 32-22-4 (59%) overall. It’s sitting pretty at 55% for the season.

SPM favorite picks this week

Here are the SPM’s favorite picks for this week:

What do y’all think?

The Tennessee Volunteers conclude the regular season this Saturday at 4:00 on the SEC Network, but it’s Rivalry Week, and there are great games all week long, especially on Saturday. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Here we go again with teams in Ohio playing football on non-Saturdays. I think they’re confused.

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Rivalry Week cracks open Thanksgiving night with Mississippi-Mississippi State. Alexa, why do they call it the Egg Bowl?

Friday, November 29, 2019

There are a lot of games on TV this Black Friday, but most of them aren’t of much interest to Vols fans. So, if you don’t like those choices, just look for the oblong ball on your TV (or consult the entire schedule below) and find whatever floats your boat.

But notice that line of Orange, which is the Vols hoops team playing Florida State at 7:00 on CBS Sports Network. So be sure to catch that. It’s good to chase a little football with a little basketball.

Gameday, November 30, 2019

Wait, we’re on at the same time as the Iron Bowl? Bummer, as I would have liked to have seen that one live. But we’ll be busy trying to pack three years’ worth on revenge on the Commodores into 60 minutes at 4:00 on the SEC Network.

Depending on what happens with Vols hoops Friday night against Florida State, they’ll play again on Saturday either at 4:00 or at 7:00 and against either Purdue or VCU. If it’s on at 4:00, DVR it and watch it later. Hey, I love hoops, but if it comes down to game number 12 of 12 or game number six of 32, I’m going with 12 of 12. If it’s on at 7:00, then DVR that and catch up with it after the Vols-Vandy football game.

Warm up with Ohio State and Michigan at noon on Fox, although I feel the need to voice the opinion here that you can’t give it a name as presumptuous as The Game if it’s on at noon and on Fox. And what is up with Ohio State’s unnatural affection for the word “The” anyway?

There are also a couple of great options in the evening, so have at it.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

And hey, it’s Rivalry Week, so there’s chaos all around. Here’s where and when to find it your particular flavor:

Tennessee is bowl eligible for just the sixth time in the last 12 years, the first time since 2016, and the first time since 2015 when you’re actually looking forward to it. If the Vols beat Vanderbilt and win their bowl game, an 8-5 finish would be the third-best season for Tennessee in these last dozen years.

There’s a lot to celebrate, some of which includes not just postseason eligibility but the opportunity to play in January. Those two things seemed improbable and impossible after the Vols were blown out at Florida in a 1-3 start. But thanks to the good work of both Tennessee and the SEC’s upper tier, a January 1 date in Florida is the most likely scenario for the Vols if they handle Vanderbilt.

First, how Tennessee gets there. Then, who they might play.

SEC Bowl Tie-Ins: CFP, NY6 & Orlando

We start with the College Football Playoff. LSU is currently atop those rankings, with the regular season finale against Texas A&M and the SEC Championship left to go. Georgia was fourth last week and should stay there; the Dawgs get 3-8 Georgia Tech, then LSU.

If LSU beats Texas A&M, they should be in regardless of what happens in Atlanta. If Georgia beats Georgia Tech, the Dawgs should be in if they beat LSU. If LSU beats Georgia, Alabama could re-enter the fray if they beat Auburn on Saturday. The 11-1 Tua-less Tide would be in the conversation with Utah and the Oklahoma/Baylor rematch victor if they all win out.

Regardless, the SEC will almost certainly have one team in the College Football Playoff, and possibly two.

From there, the Sugar Bowl is required to take the next highest-ranked SEC team in the CFP poll. This will almost certainly be Georgia or Alabama.

The Sugar Bowl will take from the SEC and Big 12, the Rose Bowl from the Big Ten and Pac-12. The Orange Bowl will take the next highest-ranked ACC team (which was none of them last week; the assumption is this will be the winner of Virginia/Virginia Tech after they then lose to Clemson).

The other team in the Orange Bowl is the next-highest-ranked at-large team from the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame. Because of that, it matters less if the league gets two teams in the playoff this year: either one of Georgia/Alabama makes the playoff and the other goes to the Sugar Bowl, or neither of them make the playoff but one goes to the Sugar and one could go to the Orange. You’d need the lesser of Georgia/Alabama to be ranked higher than the lesser of Penn State and the winner of this week’s Wisconsin/Minnesota game.

Finally, the Cotton Bowl will take the top Group of Five team and the highest-rated available at-large team. That could be the aforementioned lesser of Penn State/Wisconsin/Minnesota. But it could also be Florida, currently 11th in the CFP poll.

Translation: the SEC should have either three or four teams in the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six.

The Citrus Bowl is next, and gets first pick of all the remaining SEC teams. If Florida makes it four in the CFP/NY6, Auburn is the natural choice here. If the Gators are left out of the CFP/NY6, they’re likely to end up in Orlando.

SEC Bowl Tie-Ins: The Group of Six

That’s the Outback, Gator, Music City, Belk, Liberty, and Texas Bowls. And I list them this way because that’s typically been their order of prestige. The league office says, “In consultation with SEC member institutions, as well as these six bowls, the conference will make the assignments for the bowl games in the pool system.”

This has never meant that all six are created equal. The old pecking order puts the Outback at the top of the list, and that’s held form: a ranked SEC team has played in Tampa seven of the last eight years. If Florida is in the Citrus Bowl, Auburn should be the choice here; the Tigers haven’t been to the Outback Bowl since 2014.

But if the league gets four teams in the NY6/CFP and Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl, the pool of available teams changes:

• Tennessee (7-5 if they beat Vanderbilt)
• Texas A&M (7-5 if they lose to LSU)
• Kentucky (6-5 playing Louisville)
• Missouri (6-6 if they beat Arkansas, but ineligible at the moment)
• Mississippi State (6-6 if they beat Ole Miss)

You already don’t have enough teams to fill the allotment. You’re two short if Missouri remains ineligible. You’re three short if Ole Miss beats Mississippi State.

Given all of the above, Tennessee and Texas A&M are clearly the cream of this crop. Which brings me to the most important point: Texas A&M played in the Gator Bowl last year.

That being the case, if Auburn is in the Citrus Bowl and the league office is deciding between these five teams, it seems obvious to send A&M to Tampa. From there, the Gator Bowl is traditionally the next-highest in the pecking order; Jacksonville hosted ranked SEC teams three of the last six years and Tennessee and Georgia in two of the other three. By contrast, the Music City Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since 2002. The Belk Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since its agreement with the league in 2014. Last year #24 Missouri became the first ranked SEC team to play in the Liberty Bowl since the arrangement was renewed in 2006. And the Texas Bowl has hosted a ranked SEC team once since its arrangement with the league in 2015.

You can argue about the pecking order of Music City, Liberty, Belk, and Texas. But let’s not pretend the Group of Six doesn’t start with January in Florida.

And that being the case, Tennessee is going to Jacksonville.

If Auburn is in the Citrus Bowl, A&M goes to Tampa because they were in Jacksonville last year and the Vols go to Jacksonville. If Florida is in the Citrus Bowl, Auburn goes to Tampa for the first time since 2014, and the Vols go to Jacksonville because A&M was there last year.

Jason Kirk at Banner Society, who has done my favorite bowl projections for years, currently disputes this theory by sending A&M back to Jacksonville, Auburn to Tampa, and the Vols to Charlotte. The last time the Gator Bowl took the same team in consecutive years was West Virginia in 2004-05. The Outback Bowl took the Vols back-to-back in 2006-07. But it has not happened for either bowl in the last 12 years.

People smarter than me on the Tennessee side of things, including writers at VolQuest and the Jaguars’ backup quarterback, believe the Vols are headed to Jacksonville.

What could disrupt this scenario, besides a loss to Vanderbilt? Outside of total chaos like Georgia Tech beating Georgia, here’s the only scenario I can come up with:

• Auburn beats Alabama, Florida State beats Florida, and Oregon beats Utah in the Pac-12 title game
• CFP: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma
• Sugar: Georgia vs Baylor
• Rose: Minnesota vs Oregon
• Orange: Penn State vs VT/UVA
• Cotton: Group of Five vs Utah

If there were only two SEC teams in the CFP/NY6, then in this scenario let’s say Auburn goes to the Citrus Bowl, but the Outback and Gator could choose Florida AND Alabama. It’s quite a longshot, but I’d imagine it would send Tennessee elsewhere. Given that Alabama is -4 and Florida is -17.5 right now, I think we’ll be alright here.

One other wrinkle, on the positive side. ESPN’s Mark Schlabach puts four SEC teams in the CFP/NY6, then sends Auburn to the Citrus Bowl. But instead of sending Texas A&M to Tampa, he sends them to Houston…to face Texas. Would the Aggies rather see their old rivals or play on January 1? Good question, but I’m sure the other powers that be would love it. If that happened, the Vols could get to the Outback Bowl, where Schlabach has them facing Penn State. Stay tuned.

Who Would We Play in Jacksonville?

Let’s assume it is in fact the Gator Bowl for Tennessee. Who are we likely to face there?

This is the final year of an arrangement between the Gator and Music City Bowls to each take three ACC and three Big Ten teams in a six-year period. Jacksonville took Iowa (and the Vols) in 2014, Penn State in 2015, then three ACC teams in a row. So they are contractually obligated to take a Big Ten team this year.

However, with bowls things like contracts and rules can be relaxed on college football’s selection Sunday. One scenario I’ve seen, including at Banner Society: the best available Big Ten team is Indiana, and the best available ACC team is the loser of Virginia/Virginia Tech. It’s only a four hour drive from Indiana to Nashville for the Music City Bowl, which sent a representative to see the Hoosiers last week. If it makes sense for all parties involved, those rules will be in theory only. Trading with the Music City would bring the #3 ACC team to Jacksonville, behind the Orange Bowl and the Camping World Bowl. Notre Dame can’t take the ACC spot in Miami, but can in the Camping World Bowl, so the theory is is VT/UVA winner to the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame to Camping World, VT/UVA loser to Jacksonville.

So while there’s an outside chance Tennessee might catch Virginia or Virginia Tech in Jacksonville, the more likely scenario is a Big Ten team. That conference also has rules in place to send its teams to as many different bowls as possible in a six year span. Iowa has been a popular pick for the Gator Bowl, but we remember seeing them there in 2014. The Athletic and the Des Moines Register have details on those contracts as they relate to the Hawkeyes.

Let’s look at the Big Ten picture as a whole. Ohio State seems bound for the CFP. The Rose Bowl takes the next highest-ranked Big Ten team, which will either be Penn State (10-2 post-Rutgers) or the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner. If another Big Ten team is ranked above the next-highest SEC team, they’d get the Orange Bowl but then forfeit their Citrus bowl slot to the ACC. This would not happen if a Big Ten team gets the Cotton Bowl.

Banner Society has Minnesota in the Rose and Penn State in the Cotton. Both ESPN projections leave Penn State out of the New Year’s Six, putting the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner in the Rose and SEC teams in the Orange and Cotton.

Once we get beyond there, the Big Ten’s rules about five different teams playing in bowls over six years come into play. Penn State, for example, played in the Citrus Bowl last year, so don’t look for them back in Orlando. If the Nittany Lions don’t earn a New Year’s Six spot, they’ll be in Tampa (not since 2011).

After the Citrus and the Outback, the Holiday Bowl interrupts the SEC/Big Ten love affair. Both Michigan and Iowa would come into play here: the Wolverines haven’t been to San Diego since 1994, the Hawkeyes since 1991. Then the Gator Bowl, which hasn’t had Michigan since 1991.

So the cleanest scenario would go something like this:

• CFP: Ohio State
• Rose: Minnesota/Wisconsin winner
• Citrus: Minnesota/Wisconsin loser
• Outback: Penn State
• Holiday: Iowa
• Gator: Michigan

If you like that look, watch the College Football Playoff poll this week and see where Penn State lands. If they’re behind Florida, that would be really good news for both the SEC and the chances to see Michigan in the Gator Bowl.

As we’ve noted, I still think the Vols will go to Jacksonville even if the Big Ten gets a third team in the CFP/NY6 and Florida goes to Orlando instead. But if that happens via the Cotton Bowl, Indiana (or an ACC team) becomes a possible alternative for the Gator Bowl.

So, to recap:

• Beat Vanderbilt, and the Vols should be in Jacksonville
• …unless Texas and Texas A&M want a piece of each other, which could send Tennessee to the Outback Bowl
• If Penn State ends up in the New Year’s Six, the Gator Bowl could get Indiana or an ACC team
• If Penn State isn’t in the New Year’s Six, Michigan seems most likely for the Gator Bowl
• It’s important for Penn State to be behind Florida in the new College Football Playoff poll if you want Michigan

First thing’s first: beat Vanderbilt.