What’s Next in Recruiting?

With a lot of news to digest, from the transfer of skill players RB/WR Miles Jones and WR Velus Jones as well as OL Cade Mays, to the decision of All-American OL Trey Smith, a few thoughts below on how that might affect Tennessee’s approach to the February signing period:

With those transfers, Tennessee has now added 23 players in the 2020 class, leaving two spots before any monkeying with the numbers.  It’s not breaking news to say that DL Jay Hardy and ATH Dee Beckwith have those spots locked up should they want them and that whoever else might want in will be dependent on said numbers machinations. 

A quick thought on Beckwith: Although this writer has been a bit critical of his apparent love for basketball, perhaps to the detriment of his future in football, that opinion has changed somewhat as his focus seems to have narrowed back to football.  Further, and more importantly, watching how Florida (his other finalist) featured a *very* similar player in TE Kyle Pitts as almost the focal point of its offense, his value as a prospect has increased.  Were Tennessee to land Beckwith (who visits Tennessee January 31st after tripping to UK and UF) and develop him into a player like Pitts, that would be massive for an offense that continues to evolve with multiple different kinds of players, from big-bodied WRs like Josh Palmer to speed demons like Jalin Hyatt to more Swiss Army types like Jimmy Calloway, Jimmy Holiday, and the aforementioned Mr. Jones’s. 

To the degree that Tennessee was searching for another OL in this class, one would think that the addition of Mays ends that search.  5-star UGA commitment Broderick Jones had planned to officially visit Knoxville next weekend – the first one after the dead period ends – but that appears to be off.  Whether that was a decision made by Jones or by Tennessee (likely sensing that the chances of stealing Jones were low) is unknown and meaningless.  But with the strong likelihood that former commitment Kyree Miller ends up elsewhere (100% a Tennessee decision) and the Vols also having cancelled a previously planned OV for Jalen St John, it appears that Tennessee has closed the door on adding another OL in the 2020 class.  And considering the Vols signed a trio of really nice OL prospects in Cooper Mays, James Robinson, and Javontez Spraggins and then added Cade Mays, that’s smart roster management

In contrast, despite adding two bigtime WR prospects last month in Hyatt and Calloway to go with the two transfers, Tennessee is still in the market for another WR.  But while many thought that would be Rock Hill, SC native Ger-Cari Caldwell, there doesn’t seem to be a ton of traction on either/both sides there.  Instead, news broke on Friday that Tennessee will instead be hosting 4-star FSU commitment Malachi Wideman next weekend before Wideman trips to Oregon and then Florida Atlantic for his final two visits.  With Wideman having already taken his OV to FSU (as well as Washington State), the Vols could be in a strong position for the SI All-American and 247 Sports Top 140 prospect.  Wideman is a freak athlete whose strength on the gridiron comes from his elite size/athleticism combo, and his upside lies in the fact that he’s still raw when it comes to the technical aspects of the position.  He also happens to be a high level basketball player, so should the Vols seek to enlist Rick Barnes (ala the Dee Beckwith recruitment) that could be a feather in their cap here.  He’s the kind of prospect you make room for, period.  So it will be very interesting to see how this one shakes out.

Another potential transfer name to keep an eye on is former UGA LB/S Otis Reese.  Reese, who signed with the Bulldogs in the class of 2018 as a Top 100 prospect, entered the transfer portal last week.  He was recruited heavily by both Coach Jeremy Pruitt and DC Derrick Ansley when both were at Alabama, and also notably he hails from the same South Georgia high school (Lee Co.) as current Vol DL Aubrey Solomon.  Reese is a bit of a tweener, but was running with the 1’s for UGA last spring before contracting mono which set him back heavily.  Once that happened he was passed by in the depth chart by former 5-star Lewis Cine and that was that.  Regardless, he’s an elite athlete with a reputation as a bigtime hitter – the kind of talent even a heavily upgraded Tennessee roster could use.  There hasn’t been much said publicly about Reese’s future plans, but one would think the Vols will be a major player should they choose to be

Tennessee-South Carolina four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the South Carolina Gamecocks. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Basically even, but Tennessee is shooting better from three.

Summary and Score Prediction

The weatherman isn’t always right, and although Tuesday night’s forecast of ugly shooting percentages never happened, we’re doubling down on that this weekend. The Vols have to correct their turnover issues as they are literally giving games away, but improving that this weekend may be difficult. The game may be won at the foul line.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Whatever they did to shoot well despite playing a good defense at Missouri Tuesday, do that again. If they can get above 50% from two and 45% from three again, awesome. But even their averages of 43% and 33% would be good against a good defensive team.
  2. It will be difficult against a defensively active team like South Carolina, but the Vols have to protect the ball better. Aim for 12 or fewer turnovers.
  3. Win an apparently even rebounding matchup.
  4. Make the most of an advantage at getting to the foul line themselves while playing aggressive defense on the other end without fouling. The goal here is to get to 20 attempts while keeping South Carolina to under 20.

KenPom gives Tennessee an 81% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 71, South Carolina 62.

My prediction: Tennessee 73, South Carolina 67.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee is a better-shooting team overall. Among prior Vols’ opponents, South Carolina is most like Jacksonville State and Florida A&M in that department. We scored 75 and 72 against those teams.

Turnover %

Conclusion: These guys protect the ball much better than the Vols do. They do it as well as VCU and LSU.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Again, South Carolina is much better at grabbing offensive rebounds than are the Vols. Best comps are Memphis and Florida State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Tennessee and South Carolina are pretty comparable when it comes to Free Throw Rate.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), and it will be going up against a defense that is 45.2 (No. 46).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ eFG% is 47.5 (No. 241), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.5 (No. 31).

Conclusions

Both defenses are equipped to make things difficult for the opposing offenses. We said this about that last game against Missouri, though, and it didn’t seem to bother the Vols, so we’ll see. I’d still expect to see both offenses struggle a bit more than usual.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20.9 (No. 257), while the Gamecocks’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 21.9 (No. 63). They Vols are always going to be outmatched in this category until they earn some dramatic improvement.

When South Carolina has the ball

South Carolina’s turnover % is 19.1 (No. 149), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 142).

Conclusions

I’d expect the Vols to be focusing on correcting their turnovers problem, but I wouldn’t expect too much noticeable improvement tomorrow against the Gamecocks.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 114). South Carolina’s defense in that category is 28.1 (No. 163).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ OR% is 32.6 (No. 61), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.4 (No. 73).

Conclusions

This appears to be an evenly-matched game from a rebounding perspective.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.8 (No. 133), while South Carolina’s defense against that is 46.6 (No. 344).

When South Carolina has the ball

The Gamecocks’ FT Rate is 34.2 (No. 119), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.2 (No. 61).

Conclusions

It appears that the Vols should be able to both get to the foul line more often than usual and keep South Carolina from getting there as often as it usually does.

Go Vols.

Something You Don’t See Every Day

We all want to win. Even after a remarkable second half to the 2019 season and a six-game winning streak, we’re all tired of years without banners or bowls we’d never grow tired of talking about.

We want our players to do well. We wanted that for Dobbs and Barnett and Kamara and Jauan and Cordarrelle and everyone else who found bright spots in the last 10+ years, and all the ones who didn’t.

We’ll want to win next year, and we’ll want the players who make up the 2020 Vols to do well. But it’s been a long time since we’ll have wanted a Tennessee team to win because we wanted it this much for an individual.

There are great stories out there to be told. This could be especially true for Jarrett Guarantano going forward, his rags turning into greater riches than the fine folks at Taxslayer can afford. Every season tells a story.

But if Trey Smith is coming back, then (Fulmerized), we might as well win them all.

Trey and his inner circle – whoever he considers that to be – get to be the experts on his decision making, and I know it surprised many of us to hear that news today, delivered in an impeccable late-90’s Louisiana accent. There’s some line out there between fact and fable when we talk about him risking his life to play for us. But Trey and his circle always get to be the ones to decide where that line is. One fact he seems quite clear on:

Trey Smith would’ve been loved around here for a long time if he went pro, whether he became an NFL star or not. He entered new territory in that department today. And aside from our admiration for him playing at all and making this choice, now he’s got a chance to earn some rare accolades.

John Henderson and Will Overstreet both earned consecutive first-team All-SEC honors in 2000 and 2001. Since then, only one Vol – Eric Berry – has been named first-team All-SEC twice.

Charles McRae and Antone Davis were both first round draft picks in 1991. Since then, only one Vol offensive lineman – Ja’Wuan James – has been selected in the first round.

Trey Smith, number one in your hearts today and for a long time to come, can also be number one on a lot of other lists, and a lot of other “first time since”s.

And if one of the biggest questions for 2020 was, “Who leads?” Ding ding ding.

We always want to win. But today, by itself and especially as the culmination of everything after September, will take us to a set of expectations we haven’t enjoyed for a few years, thanks to a player we’ll want good things for more than any other in even longer.

Trey Smith is coming back. Might as well win.

Go Vols.

Predicting the national championship game using SPM comps

The LSU Tigers are currently 5.5-point favorites to beat the Clemson Tigers in Monday night’s national championship game. Honestly, if I went with my gut yesterday, I would have picked LSU to cover that spread without hesitation. I’ve watched them play. I’ve consistently underappreciated how prolific that offense is and misjudged how badly they’d beat good teams with good defenses. LSU to cover, probably big, amirite?

So I was surprised when I fired up the SPM this morning and it spit out a tie game. My first inclination was that something had gone wrong and that I was going to have to scrap the idea of doing an SPM National Championship preview post because I didn’t trust the results myself.

But looking at the details of why the SPM came to that conclusion — along with its performance over the course of the bowl season — made me re-think things. With one game left to play, the SPM is 25-15 (62.5%) for bowl season. We value Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictions as the gold standard we measure against around here, and even that is only 18-22 (45%) for bowl season. So I figured it’s worth taking a look at why the SPM doesn’t think LSU is a clear favorite Monday night against Clemson, and then we can all decide for ourselves whether or not to listen.

LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers

From the perspective of LSU

LSU’s points:

  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9
  • Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5

The Clemson scoring defense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Georgia 12.6
  • Florida 15.5

LSU had no trouble against the Gators, scoring 42 points despite the fact that Florida allowed an average of only 12.6 points all season. The same is true with respect to Georgia: LSU scored 37 on the Bulldogs. When LSU plays a team with a defense like Clemson’s, its offense scores almost three times as many points as those teams usually give up. It’s not unreasonable to think that LSU can score 30 points against a really good Clemson defense. The SPM predicts 32.2 points for LSU.

Clemson’s points:

  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6
  • Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3

The Clemson scoring offense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s):

  • Alabama 47.2
  • Oklahoma 42.1

LSU couldn’t stop Alabama, which got 41 points against them, but they did pretty well against Oklahoma, which they held to only 28. Those are two quite different results against similar offenses. Taken together, it’s 77% of what those teams usually get; Oklahoma alone got only 67% of what it usually gets. That would make it 30-35 points for Clemson against LSU. The SPM puts it at 34.9 points for Clemson against LSU.

Estimated score: Clemson 34.9, LSU 32.2

From the perspective of Clemson

Clemson’s points:

  • Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3
  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6

The LSU scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Texas A&M 22.5
  • North Carolina 23.7

Clemson scored 21 points against North Carolina and 24 points against Texas A&M. Basically, when the Clemson offense goes up against a defense like LSU’s, they generally get about what those teams usually give up. The SPM says that’s 21 points for Clemson against LSU.

LSU’s points:

  • Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5
  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9

The LSU scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s):

  • Ohio State 46.9
  • Louisville 33.1

That Louisville comp is not especially helpful, but the Ohio State comp is. The Buckeyes got only 23 points against Clemson’s defense (49% of what they usually score). If that’s indicative, Clemson might just be able to hold LSU to half its usual point total, or 24 points. Because it includes the Louisville comp, the SPM says 21 points for LSU against Clemson, but I’m going to override it and call it 24.

Estimated score: LSU 24, Clemson 21

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: LSU 28.1, Clemson 28

SPM Final estimated spread: LSU -.1

Difference between the SPM and the current spread: 5.4

Eyeball adjustments

As I said in the opening paragraph, my gut pick is LSU to cover and probably to cover comfortably. But after looking at those numbers, “comfortably” is off the table for me and even covering is in question. If I had to make a pick, I’d say LSU does not cover, and I would no longer be surprised if Clemson won outright.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is LSU 31, Clemson 28.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, LSU is a 5.5-point favorite. With an over/under of 68.5 to 69.5, that translates to something like LSU 37, Clemson 32.

I have not yet seen Connelly’s SP+ prediction, but I’ll update once it’s available.

ESPN’s FPI gives . . . Clemson a 55.8% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The SPM thinks this is basically a pick ’em, so it does not like LSU to cover the 5.5-point spread. My gut — which likes LSU to cover comfortably — has been reined in by the machine, so I now like LSU to win, but only barely.

  • Vegas: LSU -5.5 (~LSU 37, Clemson 32)
  • SP+: TBD
  • SPM: LSU 28.1, Clemson 28 (LSU doesn’t cover)
  • Me: LSU 31, Clemson 28 (LSU doesn’t cover)
  • FPI: Clemson, 55.8% chance of winning

What do y’all think?

Tennessee 69, Missouri 59: Never mind

Tennessee came into last night’s game against Missouri with one of the SEC’s worst shooting percentages, turning the ball over 13.5 times per game, still breaking in a just-now-Coming-to-America point guard, and navigating the delicate issue of a Jordan Bowden shooting slump. Traveling to Columbia, Missouri to take on a Cuonzo Martin team 5th in the nation in KenPom’s defensive effective field goal percentage seemed like the makings of a bad night for the Vols.

Never mind.

Not only were the Vols unfazed by Missouri’s defense, they improved their averages rather dramatically. Coming into the game sporting season-long shooting percentages of 42.6% from the field and 31.8% from the arc, Tennessee hit 53.5% from the field and 45.8% from three.

Never mind that Bowden slump, either, as he went 5-12 (41.67%) from the field and 2-7 (28.57%) from three. He’s still better than that, but seeing the ball go through the hole for Bowden is a welcome sight.

Meanwhile, the Vols defense held Missouri to 35.2% from the field and 36% from the arc. Only two Missouri players — Mitchell Smith and Tray Jackson — hit double figures. Contrast that to Tennessee, who had six players in double figures on the night.

That flurry of turnovers we forecasted yesterday did in fact happen, but new point guard Santiago Vescovi didn’t have 64% of them this time like he did against LSU. He led the clubhouse with 5, but John Fulkerson also had 5, and Josiah Jordan-James had 4. Several others got into the action as well: Yves Pons had 3, Olivier Nkamhoua had 2, and Bowden and Jalen Johnson each had one.

Vescovi, by the way, not only improved his ball-protection, he basically took over in the second half, going on an 8-0 run by himself with six minutes remaining and the score tied at 53. This guy needs a nickname, stat.

I know that Jeremiah Tilmon didn’t play for Missouri and that that mattered last night. But two games in to the Great Reset of 2019-20, the Vols are miles away from whatever happened in that Wisconsin game. If they can continue to improve at anything close to that rate, there might be some magic in store for this season after all.

Tennessee-Missouri four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Missouri Tigers. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
  2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
  3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee and Missouri look pretty even here. Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State among the Vols’ prior opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Again, not a lot separates these two teams on turnovers, and Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Missouri’s a good team on the boards and compares best to Murray State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Missouri’s currently tied with Florida A&M in Free Throw Rate. The Vols are better, but not by a lot.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.3 (No. 216), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.4 (No. 5). Uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 36) and trending in the wrong direction.

Conclusions

As Will noted earlier this morning, Cuonzo Martin’s defense is not what you want to see if you are an offense looking for answers. Brace for ugly.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20 (No. 207), while the Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23 (No. 37). Also uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri’s turnover % is 21.5 (No. 284), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 143).

Conclusions

As with shooting percentage, the Vols’ turnover problems are likely to be magnified by Cuonzo Martin’s defensive-minded team.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.4 (No. 102). Missouri’s defense in that category is 24.8 (No. 53).

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 31.3 (No. 80), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.2 (No. 68).

Conclusions

Rebounding is more of an even match, although Missouri is still a good rebounding team.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.4 (No. 141), while Missouri’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 291). Finally, some good news.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 30.8 (No. 199), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.7 (No. 55).

Conclusions

If there’s an opportunity to be had for the Vols in this matchup, it appears to be in getting to the free-throw line. They don’t actually get there often, but Missouri both likes to foul and has trouble getting to the line themselves.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
  2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
  3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Go Vols.

Tennessee at Missouri Preview

The Vols have lost four of five, but Santiago Vescovi injected new interest into this season. In his second act, what changes more: six threes or nine turnovers?

Even without Lamonte Turner, Tennessee’s offense goes almost exclusively through good ball movement. Against Wisconsin Tennessee made just 16 shots, the fourth time this season the Vols made less than 20 field goals. But they still managed 12 assists. The ball went in much more often against LSU, but many of those threes still came off good ball movement, including penetration from Vescovi: 24 made shots with 18 assists.

Lamonte’s assist rate would still rank sixth nationally, but Tennessee still has it in its DNA: the Vols are fourth nationally in assist rate as a team, assisting on two-thirds of their made shots. But there’s a general problem here – does Tennessee have anybody who can create their own shot? – as well as a specific one the last two games. Against Wisconsin, the Vols got to the line 19 times but only made 10 free throws. Against LSU, the Vols shot just five free throws.

Vescovi will get better at finishing in the lane and not turning the ball over. He’s not going to hit six threes every night, nor am I sure Barnes wants him to take nine a game. But he’s also not going to go 0-for-4 from inside the arc with nine turnovers. We watch Vescovi with excitement for next season, a dedicated point guard hopefully expanding the potential of Tennessee’s elite incoming talent. But I’m still interested to see how if/how he can transform this year’s team: can he successfully create his own shot? Will he adjust his game in the lane fast enough to score at the rim?

Everything is very much in flux with this team, including:

https://twitter.com/Troy_Provost/status/1213544908570513408

Bowden’s minutes are 33.5 per game. Vescovi, fresh off the plane, played 32 minutes against LSU. There’s a lot more figuring out in front of this team than behind it, which will be frustrating with moments of enlightenment along the way.

The bad news: I’m not sure Cuonzo is who you want to be figuring your offense out against.

If those 16 made shots against Wisconsin felt low, they were: the Vols made just 15 shots in the infamous Virginia and Georgetown games in Cuonzo’s second season when the Vols, learning to play without Jeronne Maymon, ran into good defensive teams. You’ll find Maymon on Mizzou’s sideline these days, and the same defensive philosophy very much intact: the Tigers are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Missouri is battle-tested, with losses to Xavier, Butler, Oklahoma, and a 71-59 defeat at Rupp in the SEC opener. They also beat rival Illinois on a neutral floor. Teams shoot just 25.9% against them from the arc, so yeah, it’s a great time to figure out how Vescovi can help Tennessee elsewhere. Much to Cuonzo’s chagrin, I’m sure, the Tigers are 338th nationally in non-steal turnover percentage on offense (via KenPom), meaning they love to give the ball away unnecessarily.

This may not be the match-up you want if you’re looking for Tennessee’s best chance to break this losing streak. But if you want the blessings and curses of Tennessee trying to figure themselves out against a team that will force them to do things differently…well, that’s probably what we’re going to get. Watch the lineups, watch Vescovi, and see if the Vols can get to the line and convert inside the arc.

7:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Let’s see what we learn this time.

Go Vols.

Watch: Gator Bowl highlights, + Santiago Vescovi

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1213614642452406278

Read: Where in the world has Santiago Vescovi been?

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Rucker: Vescovi gives Vols reason for hope, via 247Sports
  2. Johnson explains decision to leave Vols for Florida State, via 247Sports
  3. Rick Barnes doesn’t have answers for slumping Jordan Bowden, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

  • The story of Tennessee’s season told by the people who played and coached it – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Rexrode: From Jacksonville 2020 to Atlanta 2021, a Tennessee football championship contention plan – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Inside Tennessee’s onside kick, Jeremy Pruitt’s prediction and the offense’s weird night – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Tennessee takeaways: What we learned rewatching the Vols’ dramatic Gator Bowl win – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • DL Bailey ready to help ‘build something special’ with Vols, via 247Sports
  • Mays hoping to ‘get a leg up’ with Vols as early enrollee, via 247Sports

SEC Basketball Preview

From Jacksonville to Thompson-Boling, Tennessee tips off SEC play at high noon. It’s what looked like an incredibly appealing opener to conference play: Will Wade and LSU return to Knoxville after perhaps last season’s angriest loss. The Vols led for much of regulation in Baton Rouge, but LSU – on the strength of 31 free throw attempts to just 16 for the Vols – got it to overtime, then won on another foul call with 0.6 seconds left. That victory helped the Tigers get to 16-2 in league play, one game better than Tennessee, and steal the SEC title.

It looked like Wade wouldn’t be around for the return match, and then it looked like he was a prime candidate to become one of our favorite villains. But Tennessee now has its own problems, losers of three of four to Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin, the latter a 20-point blowout in the first game without Lamonte Turner.

The big picture for the SEC: the traffic jam in this league is backed up further than anyone wanted. Auburn is undefeated and ranked eighth, still yet to face anyone better than NC State (KenPom #35). Kentucky went 2-1 against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Louisville, but also lost to Evansville and Utah. Arkansas has been a nice surprise in Eric Musselman’s first season, 11-1 with an overtime loss to Western Kentucky. They just got their best win over Indiana (#37 KenPom).

Everyone else has experienced some level of disappointment:

  • Florida: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, UConn, Butler, and Utah State
  • LSU: 8-4 with losses to VCU, Utah State, ETSU, and USC
  • Tennessee: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin
  • Mississippi State: 9-3 with losses to Villanova, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State

As such, the league has no teams in the KenPom Top 10, with Auburn (13), Kentucky (15), Florida (26), and Arkansas (31) leading the way at the moment. That next tier looks like the bubble: LSU (41), Tennessee (43), Mississippi State (48), and Missouri (53).

In the January 1 Bracket Matrix, Auburn is a three seed, Kentucky a six, Arkansas an eight. Then Tennessee and Florida are in Dayton, with LSU among the next four out.

It’s a tough look for a league that sent eight teams to the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and seven last year. Auburn and Arkansas are untested on an elite level, Kentucky has elite wins and bad losses, and the rest of the league’s tournament hopefuls have more losses than wins in major non-conference games.

It could also create the kind of gridlock that hurts everyone more than it helps them. KenPom’s SEC projections have eight teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8 in conference play. It should make for a really exciting season, but for teams looking to move up that bracket you might need more separation than that.

Tennessee will have Sergio Vescovi available today. The Vol offense has plummeted to 90th in KenPom, 294th in three point shooting just under 30%. The first thing Vescovi can do is simply help Tennessee get better looks; the Wisconsin game got depressing in a hurry (a weird environment for a sold-out crowd) because the Badger defense did a great job making the Vols even less comfortable without Lamonte.

The highest-percentage scorers on this team are…John Fulkerson and Yves Pons. Pons is in the Top 200 nationally in effective field goal percentage, but got just four shots off against Wisconsin. And when Barnes says they want Fulkerson to shoot more, he’s not kidding: Fulky is 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage, and one of the few offensive bright spots in these last four games.

Tennessee’s SEC schedule is ridiculously back-loaded, but these first three games may be no friend to a team trying to figure out how to play without their point guard. LSU goes through their guards in a way few Tennessee opponents this season have. Javonte Smart and Skylar Mays will be a challenge. Tennessee is accustomed to playing defense-first teams: Memphis, Wisconsin, and Florida State are all Top 20 defenses in KenPom, while VCU, Cincinnati, and Washington all lean on defense more than offense. All of those teams also run a significant portion of their offense through their size.

So even though LSU is the first real threat this season to lean on its offense, because so much of that runs through their guard play while Tennessee is trying to figure out theirs, I’m not exactly sure that’s a good thing. For this game and beyond, Tennessee absolutely has to lean on its defense and play like its tournament fate depends on it, because it probably does.

After this one, the Vols go to Missouri on Tuesday night, then get South Carolina in Knoxville next Saturday. If I’m trying to break in a brand new point guard and learn how to play without the old one, catching LSU’s guards, Cuonzo Martin, and Frank Martin isn’t the ideal start.

But it’s the one we have, and the Vols should have another great crowd on hand today. Get better shots, get Vescovi worked in, and let’s see how far defense can take us. The ingredients for a feisty match-up with Will Wade’s team will still be there if the Vols respond better out of the gate.

High noon, ESPNU. Not sure the commercials are as good when you’re not working the night shift on ESPNU, but the Vols are going to have to win their way back to better networks.

Go Vols.