Tennessee-Missouri four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Missouri Tigers. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
  2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
  3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee and Missouri look pretty even here. Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State among the Vols’ prior opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Again, not a lot separates these two teams on turnovers, and Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Missouri’s a good team on the boards and compares best to Murray State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Missouri’s currently tied with Florida A&M in Free Throw Rate. The Vols are better, but not by a lot.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.3 (No. 216), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.4 (No. 5). Uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 36) and trending in the wrong direction.

Conclusions

As Will noted earlier this morning, Cuonzo Martin’s defense is not what you want to see if you are an offense looking for answers. Brace for ugly.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20 (No. 207), while the Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23 (No. 37). Also uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri’s turnover % is 21.5 (No. 284), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 143).

Conclusions

As with shooting percentage, the Vols’ turnover problems are likely to be magnified by Cuonzo Martin’s defensive-minded team.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.4 (No. 102). Missouri’s defense in that category is 24.8 (No. 53).

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 31.3 (No. 80), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.2 (No. 68).

Conclusions

Rebounding is more of an even match, although Missouri is still a good rebounding team.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.4 (No. 141), while Missouri’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 291). Finally, some good news.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 30.8 (No. 199), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.7 (No. 55).

Conclusions

If there’s an opportunity to be had for the Vols in this matchup, it appears to be in getting to the free-throw line. They don’t actually get there often, but Missouri both likes to foul and has trouble getting to the line themselves.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
  2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
  3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Go Vols.

Tennessee at Missouri Preview

The Vols have lost four of five, but Santiago Vescovi injected new interest into this season. In his second act, what changes more: six threes or nine turnovers?

Even without Lamonte Turner, Tennessee’s offense goes almost exclusively through good ball movement. Against Wisconsin Tennessee made just 16 shots, the fourth time this season the Vols made less than 20 field goals. But they still managed 12 assists. The ball went in much more often against LSU, but many of those threes still came off good ball movement, including penetration from Vescovi: 24 made shots with 18 assists.

Lamonte’s assist rate would still rank sixth nationally, but Tennessee still has it in its DNA: the Vols are fourth nationally in assist rate as a team, assisting on two-thirds of their made shots. But there’s a general problem here – does Tennessee have anybody who can create their own shot? – as well as a specific one the last two games. Against Wisconsin, the Vols got to the line 19 times but only made 10 free throws. Against LSU, the Vols shot just five free throws.

Vescovi will get better at finishing in the lane and not turning the ball over. He’s not going to hit six threes every night, nor am I sure Barnes wants him to take nine a game. But he’s also not going to go 0-for-4 from inside the arc with nine turnovers. We watch Vescovi with excitement for next season, a dedicated point guard hopefully expanding the potential of Tennessee’s elite incoming talent. But I’m still interested to see how if/how he can transform this year’s team: can he successfully create his own shot? Will he adjust his game in the lane fast enough to score at the rim?

Everything is very much in flux with this team, including:

https://twitter.com/Troy_Provost/status/1213544908570513408

Bowden’s minutes are 33.5 per game. Vescovi, fresh off the plane, played 32 minutes against LSU. There’s a lot more figuring out in front of this team than behind it, which will be frustrating with moments of enlightenment along the way.

The bad news: I’m not sure Cuonzo is who you want to be figuring your offense out against.

If those 16 made shots against Wisconsin felt low, they were: the Vols made just 15 shots in the infamous Virginia and Georgetown games in Cuonzo’s second season when the Vols, learning to play without Jeronne Maymon, ran into good defensive teams. You’ll find Maymon on Mizzou’s sideline these days, and the same defensive philosophy very much intact: the Tigers are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Missouri is battle-tested, with losses to Xavier, Butler, Oklahoma, and a 71-59 defeat at Rupp in the SEC opener. They also beat rival Illinois on a neutral floor. Teams shoot just 25.9% against them from the arc, so yeah, it’s a great time to figure out how Vescovi can help Tennessee elsewhere. Much to Cuonzo’s chagrin, I’m sure, the Tigers are 338th nationally in non-steal turnover percentage on offense (via KenPom), meaning they love to give the ball away unnecessarily.

This may not be the match-up you want if you’re looking for Tennessee’s best chance to break this losing streak. But if you want the blessings and curses of Tennessee trying to figure themselves out against a team that will force them to do things differently…well, that’s probably what we’re going to get. Watch the lineups, watch Vescovi, and see if the Vols can get to the line and convert inside the arc.

7:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Let’s see what we learn this time.

Go Vols.

Watch: Gator Bowl highlights, + Santiago Vescovi

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1213614642452406278

Read: Where in the world has Santiago Vescovi been?

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Rucker: Vescovi gives Vols reason for hope, via 247Sports
  2. Johnson explains decision to leave Vols for Florida State, via 247Sports
  3. Rick Barnes doesn’t have answers for slumping Jordan Bowden, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

  • The story of Tennessee’s season told by the people who played and coached it – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Rexrode: From Jacksonville 2020 to Atlanta 2021, a Tennessee football championship contention plan – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Inside Tennessee’s onside kick, Jeremy Pruitt’s prediction and the offense’s weird night – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Tennessee takeaways: What we learned rewatching the Vols’ dramatic Gator Bowl win – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • DL Bailey ready to help ‘build something special’ with Vols, via 247Sports
  • Mays hoping to ‘get a leg up’ with Vols as early enrollee, via 247Sports

SEC Basketball Preview

From Jacksonville to Thompson-Boling, Tennessee tips off SEC play at high noon. It’s what looked like an incredibly appealing opener to conference play: Will Wade and LSU return to Knoxville after perhaps last season’s angriest loss. The Vols led for much of regulation in Baton Rouge, but LSU – on the strength of 31 free throw attempts to just 16 for the Vols – got it to overtime, then won on another foul call with 0.6 seconds left. That victory helped the Tigers get to 16-2 in league play, one game better than Tennessee, and steal the SEC title.

It looked like Wade wouldn’t be around for the return match, and then it looked like he was a prime candidate to become one of our favorite villains. But Tennessee now has its own problems, losers of three of four to Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin, the latter a 20-point blowout in the first game without Lamonte Turner.

The big picture for the SEC: the traffic jam in this league is backed up further than anyone wanted. Auburn is undefeated and ranked eighth, still yet to face anyone better than NC State (KenPom #35). Kentucky went 2-1 against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Louisville, but also lost to Evansville and Utah. Arkansas has been a nice surprise in Eric Musselman’s first season, 11-1 with an overtime loss to Western Kentucky. They just got their best win over Indiana (#37 KenPom).

Everyone else has experienced some level of disappointment:

  • Florida: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, UConn, Butler, and Utah State
  • LSU: 8-4 with losses to VCU, Utah State, ETSU, and USC
  • Tennessee: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin
  • Mississippi State: 9-3 with losses to Villanova, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State

As such, the league has no teams in the KenPom Top 10, with Auburn (13), Kentucky (15), Florida (26), and Arkansas (31) leading the way at the moment. That next tier looks like the bubble: LSU (41), Tennessee (43), Mississippi State (48), and Missouri (53).

In the January 1 Bracket Matrix, Auburn is a three seed, Kentucky a six, Arkansas an eight. Then Tennessee and Florida are in Dayton, with LSU among the next four out.

It’s a tough look for a league that sent eight teams to the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and seven last year. Auburn and Arkansas are untested on an elite level, Kentucky has elite wins and bad losses, and the rest of the league’s tournament hopefuls have more losses than wins in major non-conference games.

It could also create the kind of gridlock that hurts everyone more than it helps them. KenPom’s SEC projections have eight teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8 in conference play. It should make for a really exciting season, but for teams looking to move up that bracket you might need more separation than that.

Tennessee will have Sergio Vescovi available today. The Vol offense has plummeted to 90th in KenPom, 294th in three point shooting just under 30%. The first thing Vescovi can do is simply help Tennessee get better looks; the Wisconsin game got depressing in a hurry (a weird environment for a sold-out crowd) because the Badger defense did a great job making the Vols even less comfortable without Lamonte.

The highest-percentage scorers on this team are…John Fulkerson and Yves Pons. Pons is in the Top 200 nationally in effective field goal percentage, but got just four shots off against Wisconsin. And when Barnes says they want Fulkerson to shoot more, he’s not kidding: Fulky is 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage, and one of the few offensive bright spots in these last four games.

Tennessee’s SEC schedule is ridiculously back-loaded, but these first three games may be no friend to a team trying to figure out how to play without their point guard. LSU goes through their guards in a way few Tennessee opponents this season have. Javonte Smart and Skylar Mays will be a challenge. Tennessee is accustomed to playing defense-first teams: Memphis, Wisconsin, and Florida State are all Top 20 defenses in KenPom, while VCU, Cincinnati, and Washington all lean on defense more than offense. All of those teams also run a significant portion of their offense through their size.

So even though LSU is the first real threat this season to lean on its offense, because so much of that runs through their guard play while Tennessee is trying to figure out theirs, I’m not exactly sure that’s a good thing. For this game and beyond, Tennessee absolutely has to lean on its defense and play like its tournament fate depends on it, because it probably does.

After this one, the Vols go to Missouri on Tuesday night, then get South Carolina in Knoxville next Saturday. If I’m trying to break in a brand new point guard and learn how to play without the old one, catching LSU’s guards, Cuonzo Martin, and Frank Martin isn’t the ideal start.

But it’s the one we have, and the Vols should have another great crowd on hand today. Get better shots, get Vescovi worked in, and let’s see how far defense can take us. The ingredients for a feisty match-up with Will Wade’s team will still be there if the Vols respond better out of the gate.

High noon, ESPNU. Not sure the commercials are as good when you’re not working the night shift on ESPNU, but the Vols are going to have to win their way back to better networks.

Go Vols.

Tennessee 23 Indiana 22: The Greatest Hits

Bowls always get an unequal piece of the pie, with an aftertaste lasting well into the off-season. We shouldn’t put too much on their outcome, we know. But throughout this contest, it really did feel like so much of what we’ve bemoaned and so much of what we wanted to validate about this year and this program were front and center. As such, there’s some piece of all of these issues we’ll rightfully be talking about in the months ahead:

Red Zone Issues!

After Tennessee’s opening drive was blown up by a holding penalty on the first snap, the Vols’ next three drives had:

  • 1st-and-Goal at the 7
  • 1st-and-10 at the 13, followed by 2nd-and-3 at the 6
  • 1st-and-10 at the 13

And the Vols settled for a turnover on downs and two field goals.

We’ve got eight months to talk about Tennessee’s struggles in the red zone. We will use all the words. For all the good Tennessee actually did this season, they could’ve done even more with even average proficiency inside the 20. Instead, Tennessee ended the season scoring touchdowns (23) on less than half (47) of their red zone visits.

Had the Vols lost tonight, those three drives ending in only six points would’ve been culprit number one. Do not miss chances to put a team that might be happy to be there down three possessions.

Quarterback Drama!

Tennessee’s defense did everything right in the first half except stop Peyton Ramsey from scrambling when plays broke down. The Vols led 6-3 at halftime but had dominated statistically. The Hoosiers, to their credit, adjusted with a 12-play, 69-yard touchdown drive taking 5:31 off the clock to open the third quarter. Still, the box score showed no reason to worry. And Jauan Jennings was back!

Indiana knew it too.

A force to Jennings, whether by design or decision, led to Jarrett Guarantano’s second interception, this one returned to the house. Suddenly the Vols trailed 16-6 (thanks to a crucial missed extra point), and responded with…Brian Maurer.

It felt like a message-sending decision, right or wrong. Maurer, as he did at Florida several lifetimes ago, led the Vols downfield for three points while narrowly missing a couple of interceptions. Guarantano came right back in.

The Hoosiers – who deserve a lot of credit for doing plenty of little things in a game they were losing badly in the box score – nailed a 49-yard field goal to go back up 10. Guarantano went three-and-out. IU drove to 1st-and-10 at the Vol 16 yard line with 13 minutes to play. The Hoosiers’ win expectancy at this point via ESPN.com: 95.4%.

And then, they got cute: a give to Whop Philyor was blown up for a loss of seven, leading to another field goal and a 22-9 lead with 10:27 to play. And Guarantano went three-and-out again. IU’s win probability: 97.2%.

At this point, ye olde quarterback battle in spring practice was looking w-i-d-e open. It might still be, we’ll see. That’s still going to be a major talking point this off-season.

But Guarantano and the Vols weren’t dead yet.

Life From Death!

Tennessee got the ball back at their own 18 yard line with seven minutes to play. Some combination of Pruitt, Guarantano, and Jim Chaney made a simple adjustment: get your struggling quarterback going by checking it down to the running backs, with IU’s defense playing on its heels.

Coming in, Vol running backs had 26 catches in 12 games, 2.2 per contest. The first two plays of this drive went to Eric Gray underneath coverage for 34 yards. Then Jauan Jennings got in on the action for 22 more. Then it was back to the backs, this time Ty Chandler for eight more. On the night, Vol running backs caught six passes for 57 yards.

Tom Hart and Kenny Mayne have both mentioned on ESPN’s air that no team in college football had come back from down 13+ points with less than five minutes to go this season. After Jennings drew a pass interference call on 3rd-and-10, Quavaris Crouch punched it in from the one yard line to pull the Vols within six with 4:21 to play.

Onside kick? Onside kick.

Then Guarantano to Palmer, plus facemask, plus Eric Gray from 16 yards out for the lead.

When we’re discussing the plays of the year, there are a handful of candidates that might not get remembered when we’re looking back on this decade in 2029. But in putting this season back together, there were so many little moments that mattered much: Guarantano to Tyler Byrd against Mississippi State, the blocked punt against South Carolina, the third-and-fourth-down stops at Kentucky. That onside kick – decision and execution – belong on that list, and maybe atop it. I think Kentucky will end up being the best team Tennessee beat this year, so that probably tips the scales. You don’t get to January without going through Kentucky. But now that we’re here, this kick set the tone for the entire off-season.

Tennessee out-gained the Hoosiers 374 to 303. Indiana scored one offensive touchdown. It’s a game somewhere between Missouri and Kentucky on the “we should’ve won that by more” scale. It’s a semi-fun truth: for all the good Tennessee did in this winning streak, they could’ve played even better. That was certainly true tonight.

But as adversity, self-inflicted or otherwise, presented itself, this Tennessee team again rose to the occasion. They did it in new and dramatic fashion tonight, coming from behind in a way no other team has this season. And they did it showing the same fight that got us to Jacksonville in the first place.

We’ll spend the off-season picking apart the red zone choices and wondering what exactly is going to happen at quarterback. But we’ll spend it on a six-game winning streak at the end of an 8-5 season – the third-best since 2008 – because at the end of a season that once was lost and now is found, the Vols almost gave it away tonight, then roared back better than ever.

Never, ever a dull moment around here.

Go Vols.

Gator Bowl Preview: No Parking on the Bridge

New Year’s Day is one of my favorite holidays; I joke this time of year that many are spiritual in December’s holy days, but everyone is religious on January 1. It’s newness and grace on a calendar page. And there’s football!

January Matters.

In Tennessee’s upswing from 1989-2007, the Vols played in a traditional January bowl 15 times in 19 years. Tennessee stayed home in 2005, and caught back-to-back Peach Bowls in 2002 and 2003 (the latter was played on January 2, the only Peach/Chick-fil-A Bowl played in January between 1999 and its promotion to the College Football Playoff in 2014). And in December 1994, a freshman named Peyton Manning led the Vols to a 45-23 win over Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl, which was played in The Swamp during construction on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ new stadium. That was the last of a four-year December run for the Gator Bowl, which returned to January the following season.

We rightfully hold up 1995-98 as Tennessee’s absolute peak: a 45-5 record in those four years was the best in college football, along with two SEC titles, a #2 finish in 1995, and a national championship. Extend it out to the “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001, when the Vols went 129-29-2 in 13 years, and that .813 winning percentage is the best in the SEC in that time (data via stassen.com). But Tennessee also had the best winning percentage in the SEC if you take it all the way to 1989-2007, decimal points ahead of the Gators (.7678) at 181-54-2 (.7679) in that 19-year run.

That math works out to around 10 wins a year in a 13-game season, 10.5 wins if you use the .813 percentage from 1989-2001. It was both expectation and celebration, and it almost always ended in January. We grew accustomed to starting the new year with football. And that, like many other things, has changed since 2008.

Let the (recent!) past die.

After appearing in traditional January 1 bowls 15 times in 19 years from 1989-2007, the Vols have been twice in the last dozen years. Tomorrow will make three.

Playing in any bowl game has become a 50/50 proposition: this season’s Gator Bowl is just the sixth time in these last twelve years Tennessee made the postseason at all. The Vols found their way to January following the 2014 (Gator) and 2015 (Outback) seasons, plus a pair of Music City Bowls and the December Chick-fil-A Bowl in Lane Kiffin’s 2009 season.

As is the case when you’re building a program, what you celebrate early shouldn’t be what you celebrate often. This year – especially this year, given how things looked in September – Tennessee making it to the Gator Bowl is a job well done. As we’ve been saying since May, if the Vols win, an 8-5 finish would be the third-best record of these last dozen years, bested only by a pair of 9-4’s from Butch Jones in 2015-16 that left so much more on the table.

The math is noteworthy for the 2019 team at the close of the decade as well: assigning the Gator Bowl outcome to the last decade will break a 62-62 tie for the Vols since 2010.

After having the SEC’s best winning percentage from 1989-2007, the Vols are 11th in the league from 2008-2019, besting only Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. The 2010’s stick out like a sore thumb in Tennessee’s own past:

DecadeWLPct
2010s62620.500
2000s83440.654
1990s99220.818
1980s77370.675
1970s75390.658
1960s67320.677
1950s72310.699

Tennessee historically wins between 65-70% of its games, averaging around 8.75 wins per year in a 13-game season. Should the Vols return to their own historical precedent, an 8-5 season would be rightfully considered below average.

All of this is why it’s really interesting to me that this game comes at the landmark of a new decade. You can’t redeem a decade-plus of frustration by beating Indiana to get one game over .500 the last 10 years. But a win could be the last, best example of what has a chance to be the greatest legacy of the 2019 Vols.

And if you don’t love me now

When the Vols lost to Georgia State and BYU, we wrote that progress – the only thing that mattered this season – should be measured not to the top, but from the bottom. Remarkably, this team still found a way to put the third-best year of the last dozen back on the table.

All these years and all these words about getting “back” have usually been in reference to those peak years: the late 90’s, or even that “decade” of dominance. But Tennessee is still trying to get back to being Tennessee: a program that can call a nine-win season average, allowing us to realistically hope for something more every fall and play football most Januaries.

This team, at the end of this decade, fought their way from its lowest point. And if Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols return to Tennessee’s historical success in the next decade, this group can forever be remembered as a bridge between the two, and one of the most important links in the Volunteer chain.

It’s true for those who will play their final game in a Tennessee uniform against Indiana: Jennings and Callaway, Bituli and Taylor, Nigel Warrior and probably Trey Smith. And it’s true for those who have a chance to shine tomorrow and even brighter in 2020: Jarrett Guarantano, a host of running backs, freshmen who aren’t freshmen anymore, and guys like Bryce Thompson who are one game away from being the upperclassmen leaders.

We’ve seen a lot of new and unusual in these last ten years, perhaps nothing on the field more so than these last twelve games. Against the odds, this team won their way to a thirteenth opportunity in January. They are, like all who wear orange, tied to Tennessee’s past. And they are laying the foundation for a better future, with one opportunity left.

It’s a new year, and Tennessee is playing football in January. So far, so good.

Go Vols.

Tennessee-Indiana: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Indiana Hoosiers. Bottom line for this week: Don’t take Indiana lightly, especially the Hoosiers defense or their offensive passing attack. But if the Vols offense can find success in the passing game and the defense can force a one-dimensional attack into long third downs and then win those plays, Tennessee should be able to win.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Where’s the opportunity?

It looks like maybe the Tennessee Volunteers offense is going to have to jab these guys a few times to see what they’re made of. The Hoosiers defense generally has better numbers than the Volunteers offense, but only because mediocre beats bad, and those bad numbers are season-long accumulations that don’t really reflect what the Vols offense has become late in the season. Indiana does not appear to be a threat to intercept the ball, and they’re very generous in the red zone. That, combined with Tennessee’s o-line able to protect Jarrett Guarantano pretty well, says to me that the best opportunity to explore first for the Vols offense is in the passing game.

Where’s the danger?

Overall, Indiana’s total defense numbers are much, much better than the Vols’ total offense numbers. The Hoosiers are particularly good on first down, so expect some challenges there unless Jim Chaney busts out some plays that both break tendencies and work.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Careful with these guys. Indiana’s not known for football, but they’re a good team this year, particularly on defense. We should find out fairly early if and how much of a difference there is between third in the SEC East and fourth in the Big 10 East. Let’s hope there is a difference and that it is significant. If not, Tennessee will need to devote some time early to discovering what works and what doesn’t. I’m assuming Tennessee will roll out a balanced attack, but I’m also expecting most of any success to come through the air.

Vols on defense

Where’s the opportunity?

Season-long statistics suggest that the Indiana offense and the Tennessee defense are pretty evenly matched overall. However, those numbers also suggest that Indiana is one-dimensional, that the Hoosiers either don’t want to or can’t run the ball very well. Jeremy Pruitt and Derrick Ansley should have an advantage over a one-dimensional team, and if Indiana just chucks it up there too many times, Tennessee’s got the ability to get some picks.

Where’s the danger?

Indiana’s passing offense is Top 15 in the nation, and even though Tennessee’s ability to minimize passing yards is just outside the Top 15, if the Hoosiers get into a groove through the air, it could spell trouble. They’re especially good on third downs, so getting off the field on defense will be especially important.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

The first order of business is to establish that Indiana’s offensive attack is one-dimensional and that the running game isn’t the primary threat. Once that’s done, they should be able to redirect some resources to pass defense. Force Indiana into long and dangerous third-down situations where the Vols DBs will have interception opportunities. If you can’t create turnovers, at least get off the field and give the ball back to the offense.

Special teams

Marquez Calloway has a huge opportunity to impact the game with his punt return ability Thursday.

Turnovers and penalties

Wow. These guys look really undisciplined in the penalty categories. They do appear to be better at causing and recovering fumbles.

See also

Predicting the Tennessee-Indiana game using SPM comps

Tennessee-Wisconsin four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Wisconsin Badgers. The conclusions are up front, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

All bets are off with Tennessee scrambling to replace point guard Lamonte Turner, and it will take some time for the numbers to catch up with his absence. That said, these two teams appear to be evenly matched in most of the four factors, although the Vols defense may have more of an impact on Wisconsin than Wisconsin’s will have on Tennessee. Offensive rebounds and free-throw attempts will be at a premium.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Figure out life without Lamonte Turner.
  2. Make the most of an apparent defensive advantage, forcing Wisconsin into a subpar shooting percentage.
  3. Capitalize on offensive rebounds and free throw attempts when they’re available.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 62, Wisconsin 57.

My prediction: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: A pretty good shooting team, Wisconsin is most similar to Memphis in this regard and better than Tennessee.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Wisconsin protects the ball better than any other team the Vols have played so far this season. The most-similar prior Vols opponent is UNC Asheville.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Tennessee is a better rebounding team than Wisconsin, who is most similar to VCU and Chattanooga among prior Vols opponents.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: The Vols also have an edge at getting to the free-throw line, although it’s not by much. The Badgers are most similar to Florida A&M in this category.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.5 (No. 199), and it will be going up against a defense that is 48.8 (No. 165).

When Wisconsin has the ball

The Badgers’ eFG% is 51.3 (No. 103), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.7 (No. 13).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s offense and Wisconsin’s defense are pretty evenly matched, but the Vols’ defense has an advantage over the Badgers’ offense.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 19.3 (No. 159), while the Badgers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.2 (No. 247).

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin’s turnover % is 17.2 (No. 48), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 21.2 (No. 100).

Conclusions

With the loss of Turner for the season, it’s a good thing that they’re not playing a team that is especially adept at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin generally protects the ball pretty well, but the Vols might be able to affect their ability to do so in this game.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.1 (No. 115). Wisconsin’s defense in that category is 24 (No. 38).

When Wisconsin has the ball

The Badgers’ OR% is 27.4 (No. 190), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.1 (No. 68).

Conclusions

Neither team is exactly bad at getting offensive rebounds, but they’ll both be going up against teams that are better at grabbing them for the defense. Basically, it looks like offensive rebounds are going to be at a premium.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 35.3 (No. 110), while Wisconsin’s defense against that is 25.5 (No. 61).

When Wisconsin has the ball

The Badgers’ FT Rate is 33.1 (No. 153), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 26.8 (No. 81).

Conclusions

As with offensive rebounds, both teams are decent at getting to the foul line but will be going up against defenses that are adept at keeping opponents from doing so.

Summary and Score Prediction

All bets are off with Tennessee scrambling to replace point guard Lamonte Turner, and it will take some time for the numbers to catch up with his absence. That said, these two teams appear to be evenly matched, although the Vols defense may have more of an impact on Wisconsin than Wisconsin’s will have on Tennessee. Offensive rebounds and free throw attempts will be at a premium.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. Figure out life without Lamonte Turner.
  2. Make the most of an apparent defensive advantage, forcing Wisconsin into a subpar shooting percentage.
  3. Capitalize on offensive rebounds and free throw attempts when they’re available.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 70% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 62, Wisconsin 57.

My prediction: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Go Vols.

Vols Class #9 Nationally…Yeah, it’s a Big Deal

As discussed last week, Tennessee’s 9th ranked recruiting class (per Rivals) was not only strong in its own right but also served to both widen the gap between the Vols and programs below them in the SEC East and also at worst maintain the status quo between them and Georgia and especially Florida.  That said, there is a narrative that serves to discount the meaningfulness of Tennessee’s ranking that misses a number of important points.  That story is that because Tennessee’s class is “only” 7th in the SEC (behind Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, and Auburn) that means the Vols are stuck in mediocrity within the SEC and even nationally, which is not only false but shortsighted.  To wit:

Point I: Before one can get to comparing Tennessee’s class to anyone else’s in the conference, it simply must be reiterated that Coach Jeremy Pruitt had a monumental task of roster building when he took the job in December 2017.  The talent level across the board was way down (as evidenced by Tennessee having ZERO draftees in the 2019 NFL draft) as were the overall numbers relative to the 85-man scholarship limit.  So simply following up last year’s #12 class  in 247 Sports’ enrolled rankings (which Rivals does not have, thus the change of recruiting service) with a Top 10 nationally ranked class is a huge deal.  Pruitt needs to keep stacking up these types of classes – filled with difference makers at multiple positions and very few if any reaches – in order to build Tennessee back into a true title contender.  And then of course continue to develop that talent like he has so far.  And this was a step no matter how many other SEC schools are also in the Top 10

Point II: Florida, Tennessee’s arch nemesis, also had a strong class.  Using the same Rivals rankings, the Gators’ 24-man class  finished 7th in the country with one 5-star and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.58, while Tennessee’s 23-man class finished 9th overall with zero 5-stars (pending QB Harrison Bailey’s deserved 5th) and thirteen 4-stars and an average star ranking of 3.52.  The classes are almost exactly equal to each other using these objective metrics, effectively meaning that the idea that Tennessee finished “behind” Florida is while technically true in reality meaningless.  Further, when comparing Pruitt’s two whole classes to Gators Coach Dan Mullen’s, Tennessee has two more players on its roster from the 2019 class than does Florida, who lost its top-rated 2019 signee and three 4-stars before the 2019 season began.  One could very easily make the case that between the two classes Tennessee has more talent on its 2020 roster than do the Gators

Two-year average ranking (2019 enrolled, 2020 Early Signing Day)

Tennessee: #10.5 average rank (#12 + #9)

2019:22 signed, 2 out – Melvin McBride and Jerrod Means, 2 transfers in (Aubrey Solomon and Deangelo Gibss, with one and two more seasons of eligibility remaining, respectively); 22 net for 2020 season

Florida: #12 average rank (#17+#7)

2019: 24 signed, 3 never enrolled, 2 transferred out before the season (including its one 5-star as well as three 4-stars), 2 transfers in (Jon Greenard, now out of eligibility, and Brenton Cox, 2 years to play); 20 net for the 2020 season

Point III: Tennessee doesn’t play Texas A&M, Auburn, or LSU except for once every eight years unless it meets one of them in the SEC Championship Game.  So being behind those schools in terms of recruiting ranking is effectively akin to being behind Clemson or Ohio State – if you’re seeing one those schools on the field it very likely means you’ve had an incredible season and your program has accumulated enough talent and developed that talent well enough that a single year’s recruiting ranking variance is fairly meaningless. 

Point IV: Following Point III, Tennessee’s top three competitors in the SEC East – Georgia, Florida, and to a much lesser extent South Carolina, actually DO play Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M, respectively every season.  Therefore, those programs gobbling up talent is actually a good thing for Tennessee as it makes it more likely that they deal UT’s East rivals a loss. 

Point V: Tennessee’s class would have ranked #2 in the Big 10, #2 in the ACC, and #1 in both the Big 12 and Pac10.  Does that matter, when Tennessee isn’t in those conferences?  Well, the SEC got one team in the College Football Playoff (a step down from the two the conference has gotten in the recent past) and two teams in NY6 bowls.  Alabama, long the king of college football and the SEC, is not one of these three teams but is still playing in the highly acclaimed Citrus Bowl at 10-2 and Auburn at 9-3is in the Outback Bowl.   Point being,

Point VI: Further to Point V, compare Tennessee’s #9 class with that of its next four Power Five nonconference opponents and decide for yourself if that ranking will matter for the Vols:

2020 (probably too soon for the 2020 class to really matter): Oklahoma #12

2021 Pittsburgh #47

2022 Pittsburgh #47

2023 BYU #82

So while Tennessee could conceivably move up in the final rankings if it manages to close out with some of its targets – namely Auburn commitment DL Jay Hardy and Jumbo ATH Dee Beckwith – the 2020 class is already one that has added substantially more talent and depth to the program.  And regardless of who sits in the eight spots in front, that’s a meaningful win for the Vols program.