Something You Don’t See Every Day

We all want to win. Even after a remarkable second half to the 2019 season and a six-game winning streak, we’re all tired of years without banners or bowls we’d never grow tired of talking about.

We want our players to do well. We wanted that for Dobbs and Barnett and Kamara and Jauan and Cordarrelle and everyone else who found bright spots in the last 10+ years, and all the ones who didn’t.

We’ll want to win next year, and we’ll want the players who make up the 2020 Vols to do well. But it’s been a long time since we’ll have wanted a Tennessee team to win because we wanted it this much for an individual.

There are great stories out there to be told. This could be especially true for Jarrett Guarantano going forward, his rags turning into greater riches than the fine folks at Taxslayer can afford. Every season tells a story.

But if Trey Smith is coming back, then (Fulmerized), we might as well win them all.

Trey and his inner circle – whoever he considers that to be – get to be the experts on his decision making, and I know it surprised many of us to hear that news today, delivered in an impeccable late-90’s Louisiana accent. There’s some line out there between fact and fable when we talk about him risking his life to play for us. But Trey and his circle always get to be the ones to decide where that line is. One fact he seems quite clear on:

Trey Smith would’ve been loved around here for a long time if he went pro, whether he became an NFL star or not. He entered new territory in that department today. And aside from our admiration for him playing at all and making this choice, now he’s got a chance to earn some rare accolades.

John Henderson and Will Overstreet both earned consecutive first-team All-SEC honors in 2000 and 2001. Since then, only one Vol – Eric Berry – has been named first-team All-SEC twice.

Charles McRae and Antone Davis were both first round draft picks in 1991. Since then, only one Vol offensive lineman – Ja’Wuan James – has been selected in the first round.

Trey Smith, number one in your hearts today and for a long time to come, can also be number one on a lot of other lists, and a lot of other “first time since”s.

And if one of the biggest questions for 2020 was, “Who leads?” Ding ding ding.

We always want to win. But today, by itself and especially as the culmination of everything after September, will take us to a set of expectations we haven’t enjoyed for a few years, thanks to a player we’ll want good things for more than any other in even longer.

Trey Smith is coming back. Might as well win.

Go Vols.

Predicting the national championship game using SPM comps

The LSU Tigers are currently 5.5-point favorites to beat the Clemson Tigers in Monday night’s national championship game. Honestly, if I went with my gut yesterday, I would have picked LSU to cover that spread without hesitation. I’ve watched them play. I’ve consistently underappreciated how prolific that offense is and misjudged how badly they’d beat good teams with good defenses. LSU to cover, probably big, amirite?

So I was surprised when I fired up the SPM this morning and it spit out a tie game. My first inclination was that something had gone wrong and that I was going to have to scrap the idea of doing an SPM National Championship preview post because I didn’t trust the results myself.

But looking at the details of why the SPM came to that conclusion — along with its performance over the course of the bowl season — made me re-think things. With one game left to play, the SPM is 25-15 (62.5%) for bowl season. We value Bill Connelly’s SP+ predictions as the gold standard we measure against around here, and even that is only 18-22 (45%) for bowl season. So I figured it’s worth taking a look at why the SPM doesn’t think LSU is a clear favorite Monday night against Clemson, and then we can all decide for ourselves whether or not to listen.

LSU Tigers vs. Clemson Tigers

From the perspective of LSU

LSU’s points:

  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9
  • Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5

The Clemson scoring defense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Georgia 12.6
  • Florida 15.5

LSU had no trouble against the Gators, scoring 42 points despite the fact that Florida allowed an average of only 12.6 points all season. The same is true with respect to Georgia: LSU scored 37 on the Bulldogs. When LSU plays a team with a defense like Clemson’s, its offense scores almost three times as many points as those teams usually give up. It’s not unreasonable to think that LSU can score 30 points against a really good Clemson defense. The SPM predicts 32.2 points for LSU.

Clemson’s points:

  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6
  • Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3

The Clemson scoring offense is most similar to the following prior LSU opponent(s):

  • Alabama 47.2
  • Oklahoma 42.1

LSU couldn’t stop Alabama, which got 41 points against them, but they did pretty well against Oklahoma, which they held to only 28. Those are two quite different results against similar offenses. Taken together, it’s 77% of what those teams usually get; Oklahoma alone got only 67% of what it usually gets. That would make it 30-35 points for Clemson against LSU. The SPM puts it at 34.9 points for Clemson against LSU.

Estimated score: Clemson 34.9, LSU 32.2

From the perspective of Clemson

Clemson’s points:

  • Clemson scoring offense for the season: 45.3
  • LSU scoring defense for the season: 21.6

The LSU scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Texas A&M 22.5
  • North Carolina 23.7

Clemson scored 21 points against North Carolina and 24 points against Texas A&M. Basically, when the Clemson offense goes up against a defense like LSU’s, they generally get about what those teams usually give up. The SPM says that’s 21 points for Clemson against LSU.

LSU’s points:

  • Clemson scoring defense for the season: 11.5
  • LSU scoring offense for the season: 48.9

The LSU scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Clemson opponent(s):

  • Ohio State 46.9
  • Louisville 33.1

That Louisville comp is not especially helpful, but the Ohio State comp is. The Buckeyes got only 23 points against Clemson’s defense (49% of what they usually score). If that’s indicative, Clemson might just be able to hold LSU to half its usual point total, or 24 points. Because it includes the Louisville comp, the SPM says 21 points for LSU against Clemson, but I’m going to override it and call it 24.

Estimated score: LSU 24, Clemson 21

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: LSU 28.1, Clemson 28

SPM Final estimated spread: LSU -.1

Difference between the SPM and the current spread: 5.4

Eyeball adjustments

As I said in the opening paragraph, my gut pick is LSU to cover and probably to cover comfortably. But after looking at those numbers, “comfortably” is off the table for me and even covering is in question. If I had to make a pick, I’d say LSU does not cover, and I would no longer be surprised if Clemson won outright.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is LSU 31, Clemson 28.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, LSU is a 5.5-point favorite. With an over/under of 68.5 to 69.5, that translates to something like LSU 37, Clemson 32.

I have not yet seen Connelly’s SP+ prediction, but I’ll update once it’s available.

ESPN’s FPI gives . . . Clemson a 55.8% chance of winning.

Bottom line

The SPM thinks this is basically a pick ’em, so it does not like LSU to cover the 5.5-point spread. My gut — which likes LSU to cover comfortably — has been reined in by the machine, so I now like LSU to win, but only barely.

  • Vegas: LSU -5.5 (~LSU 37, Clemson 32)
  • SP+: TBD
  • SPM: LSU 28.1, Clemson 28 (LSU doesn’t cover)
  • Me: LSU 31, Clemson 28 (LSU doesn’t cover)
  • FPI: Clemson, 55.8% chance of winning

What do y’all think?

Tennessee 69, Missouri 59: Never mind

Tennessee came into last night’s game against Missouri with one of the SEC’s worst shooting percentages, turning the ball over 13.5 times per game, still breaking in a just-now-Coming-to-America point guard, and navigating the delicate issue of a Jordan Bowden shooting slump. Traveling to Columbia, Missouri to take on a Cuonzo Martin team 5th in the nation in KenPom’s defensive effective field goal percentage seemed like the makings of a bad night for the Vols.

Never mind.

Not only were the Vols unfazed by Missouri’s defense, they improved their averages rather dramatically. Coming into the game sporting season-long shooting percentages of 42.6% from the field and 31.8% from the arc, Tennessee hit 53.5% from the field and 45.8% from three.

Never mind that Bowden slump, either, as he went 5-12 (41.67%) from the field and 2-7 (28.57%) from three. He’s still better than that, but seeing the ball go through the hole for Bowden is a welcome sight.

Meanwhile, the Vols defense held Missouri to 35.2% from the field and 36% from the arc. Only two Missouri players — Mitchell Smith and Tray Jackson — hit double figures. Contrast that to Tennessee, who had six players in double figures on the night.

That flurry of turnovers we forecasted yesterday did in fact happen, but new point guard Santiago Vescovi didn’t have 64% of them this time like he did against LSU. He led the clubhouse with 5, but John Fulkerson also had 5, and Josiah Jordan-James had 4. Several others got into the action as well: Yves Pons had 3, Olivier Nkamhoua had 2, and Bowden and Jalen Johnson each had one.

Vescovi, by the way, not only improved his ball-protection, he basically took over in the second half, going on an 8-0 run by himself with six minutes remaining and the score tied at 53. This guy needs a nickname, stat.

I know that Jeremiah Tilmon didn’t play for Missouri and that that mattered last night. But two games in to the Great Reset of 2019-20, the Vols are miles away from whatever happened in that Wisconsin game. If they can continue to improve at anything close to that rate, there might be some magic in store for this season after all.

Tennessee-Missouri four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Missouri Tigers. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
  2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
  3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee and Missouri look pretty even here. Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State among the Vols’ prior opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Again, not a lot separates these two teams on turnovers, and Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Missouri’s a good team on the boards and compares best to Murray State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Missouri’s currently tied with Florida A&M in Free Throw Rate. The Vols are better, but not by a lot.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.3 (No. 216), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.4 (No. 5). Uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 36) and trending in the wrong direction.

Conclusions

As Will noted earlier this morning, Cuonzo Martin’s defense is not what you want to see if you are an offense looking for answers. Brace for ugly.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20 (No. 207), while the Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23 (No. 37). Also uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri’s turnover % is 21.5 (No. 284), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 143).

Conclusions

As with shooting percentage, the Vols’ turnover problems are likely to be magnified by Cuonzo Martin’s defensive-minded team.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.4 (No. 102). Missouri’s defense in that category is 24.8 (No. 53).

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 31.3 (No. 80), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.2 (No. 68).

Conclusions

Rebounding is more of an even match, although Missouri is still a good rebounding team.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.4 (No. 141), while Missouri’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 291). Finally, some good news.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 30.8 (No. 199), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.7 (No. 55).

Conclusions

If there’s an opportunity to be had for the Vols in this matchup, it appears to be in getting to the free-throw line. They don’t actually get there often, but Missouri both likes to foul and has trouble getting to the line themselves.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
  2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
  3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Go Vols.

Tennessee at Missouri Preview

The Vols have lost four of five, but Santiago Vescovi injected new interest into this season. In his second act, what changes more: six threes or nine turnovers?

Even without Lamonte Turner, Tennessee’s offense goes almost exclusively through good ball movement. Against Wisconsin Tennessee made just 16 shots, the fourth time this season the Vols made less than 20 field goals. But they still managed 12 assists. The ball went in much more often against LSU, but many of those threes still came off good ball movement, including penetration from Vescovi: 24 made shots with 18 assists.

Lamonte’s assist rate would still rank sixth nationally, but Tennessee still has it in its DNA: the Vols are fourth nationally in assist rate as a team, assisting on two-thirds of their made shots. But there’s a general problem here – does Tennessee have anybody who can create their own shot? – as well as a specific one the last two games. Against Wisconsin, the Vols got to the line 19 times but only made 10 free throws. Against LSU, the Vols shot just five free throws.

Vescovi will get better at finishing in the lane and not turning the ball over. He’s not going to hit six threes every night, nor am I sure Barnes wants him to take nine a game. But he’s also not going to go 0-for-4 from inside the arc with nine turnovers. We watch Vescovi with excitement for next season, a dedicated point guard hopefully expanding the potential of Tennessee’s elite incoming talent. But I’m still interested to see how if/how he can transform this year’s team: can he successfully create his own shot? Will he adjust his game in the lane fast enough to score at the rim?

Everything is very much in flux with this team, including:

https://twitter.com/Troy_Provost/status/1213544908570513408

Bowden’s minutes are 33.5 per game. Vescovi, fresh off the plane, played 32 minutes against LSU. There’s a lot more figuring out in front of this team than behind it, which will be frustrating with moments of enlightenment along the way.

The bad news: I’m not sure Cuonzo is who you want to be figuring your offense out against.

If those 16 made shots against Wisconsin felt low, they were: the Vols made just 15 shots in the infamous Virginia and Georgetown games in Cuonzo’s second season when the Vols, learning to play without Jeronne Maymon, ran into good defensive teams. You’ll find Maymon on Mizzou’s sideline these days, and the same defensive philosophy very much intact: the Tigers are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Missouri is battle-tested, with losses to Xavier, Butler, Oklahoma, and a 71-59 defeat at Rupp in the SEC opener. They also beat rival Illinois on a neutral floor. Teams shoot just 25.9% against them from the arc, so yeah, it’s a great time to figure out how Vescovi can help Tennessee elsewhere. Much to Cuonzo’s chagrin, I’m sure, the Tigers are 338th nationally in non-steal turnover percentage on offense (via KenPom), meaning they love to give the ball away unnecessarily.

This may not be the match-up you want if you’re looking for Tennessee’s best chance to break this losing streak. But if you want the blessings and curses of Tennessee trying to figure themselves out against a team that will force them to do things differently…well, that’s probably what we’re going to get. Watch the lineups, watch Vescovi, and see if the Vols can get to the line and convert inside the arc.

7:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Let’s see what we learn this time.

Go Vols.

Watch: Gator Bowl highlights, + Santiago Vescovi

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1213614642452406278

Read: Where in the world has Santiago Vescovi been?

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it this, from 247Sports:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Rucker: Vescovi gives Vols reason for hope, via 247Sports
  2. Johnson explains decision to leave Vols for Florida State, via 247Sports
  3. Rick Barnes doesn’t have answers for slumping Jordan Bowden, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

  • The story of Tennessee’s season told by the people who played and coached it – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Rexrode: From Jacksonville 2020 to Atlanta 2021, a Tennessee football championship contention plan – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Inside Tennessee’s onside kick, Jeremy Pruitt’s prediction and the offense’s weird night – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • Tennessee takeaways: What we learned rewatching the Vols’ dramatic Gator Bowl win – The Athletic, via The Athletic
  • DL Bailey ready to help ‘build something special’ with Vols, via 247Sports
  • Mays hoping to ‘get a leg up’ with Vols as early enrollee, via 247Sports

SEC Basketball Preview

From Jacksonville to Thompson-Boling, Tennessee tips off SEC play at high noon. It’s what looked like an incredibly appealing opener to conference play: Will Wade and LSU return to Knoxville after perhaps last season’s angriest loss. The Vols led for much of regulation in Baton Rouge, but LSU – on the strength of 31 free throw attempts to just 16 for the Vols – got it to overtime, then won on another foul call with 0.6 seconds left. That victory helped the Tigers get to 16-2 in league play, one game better than Tennessee, and steal the SEC title.

It looked like Wade wouldn’t be around for the return match, and then it looked like he was a prime candidate to become one of our favorite villains. But Tennessee now has its own problems, losers of three of four to Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin, the latter a 20-point blowout in the first game without Lamonte Turner.

The big picture for the SEC: the traffic jam in this league is backed up further than anyone wanted. Auburn is undefeated and ranked eighth, still yet to face anyone better than NC State (KenPom #35). Kentucky went 2-1 against Michigan State, Ohio State, and Louisville, but also lost to Evansville and Utah. Arkansas has been a nice surprise in Eric Musselman’s first season, 11-1 with an overtime loss to Western Kentucky. They just got their best win over Indiana (#37 KenPom).

Everyone else has experienced some level of disappointment:

  • Florida: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, UConn, Butler, and Utah State
  • LSU: 8-4 with losses to VCU, Utah State, ETSU, and USC
  • Tennessee: 8-4 with losses to Florida State, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Wisconsin
  • Mississippi State: 9-3 with losses to Villanova, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State

As such, the league has no teams in the KenPom Top 10, with Auburn (13), Kentucky (15), Florida (26), and Arkansas (31) leading the way at the moment. That next tier looks like the bubble: LSU (41), Tennessee (43), Mississippi State (48), and Missouri (53).

In the January 1 Bracket Matrix, Auburn is a three seed, Kentucky a six, Arkansas an eight. Then Tennessee and Florida are in Dayton, with LSU among the next four out.

It’s a tough look for a league that sent eight teams to the NCAA Tournament in 2018 and seven last year. Auburn and Arkansas are untested on an elite level, Kentucky has elite wins and bad losses, and the rest of the league’s tournament hopefuls have more losses than wins in major non-conference games.

It could also create the kind of gridlock that hurts everyone more than it helps them. KenPom’s SEC projections have eight teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8 in conference play. It should make for a really exciting season, but for teams looking to move up that bracket you might need more separation than that.

Tennessee will have Sergio Vescovi available today. The Vol offense has plummeted to 90th in KenPom, 294th in three point shooting just under 30%. The first thing Vescovi can do is simply help Tennessee get better looks; the Wisconsin game got depressing in a hurry (a weird environment for a sold-out crowd) because the Badger defense did a great job making the Vols even less comfortable without Lamonte.

The highest-percentage scorers on this team are…John Fulkerson and Yves Pons. Pons is in the Top 200 nationally in effective field goal percentage, but got just four shots off against Wisconsin. And when Barnes says they want Fulkerson to shoot more, he’s not kidding: Fulky is 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage, and one of the few offensive bright spots in these last four games.

Tennessee’s SEC schedule is ridiculously back-loaded, but these first three games may be no friend to a team trying to figure out how to play without their point guard. LSU goes through their guards in a way few Tennessee opponents this season have. Javonte Smart and Skylar Mays will be a challenge. Tennessee is accustomed to playing defense-first teams: Memphis, Wisconsin, and Florida State are all Top 20 defenses in KenPom, while VCU, Cincinnati, and Washington all lean on defense more than offense. All of those teams also run a significant portion of their offense through their size.

So even though LSU is the first real threat this season to lean on its offense, because so much of that runs through their guard play while Tennessee is trying to figure out theirs, I’m not exactly sure that’s a good thing. For this game and beyond, Tennessee absolutely has to lean on its defense and play like its tournament fate depends on it, because it probably does.

After this one, the Vols go to Missouri on Tuesday night, then get South Carolina in Knoxville next Saturday. If I’m trying to break in a brand new point guard and learn how to play without the old one, catching LSU’s guards, Cuonzo Martin, and Frank Martin isn’t the ideal start.

But it’s the one we have, and the Vols should have another great crowd on hand today. Get better shots, get Vescovi worked in, and let’s see how far defense can take us. The ingredients for a feisty match-up with Will Wade’s team will still be there if the Vols respond better out of the gate.

High noon, ESPNU. Not sure the commercials are as good when you’re not working the night shift on ESPNU, but the Vols are going to have to win their way back to better networks.

Go Vols.

Tennessee 23 Indiana 22: The Greatest Hits

Bowls always get an unequal piece of the pie, with an aftertaste lasting well into the off-season. We shouldn’t put too much on their outcome, we know. But throughout this contest, it really did feel like so much of what we’ve bemoaned and so much of what we wanted to validate about this year and this program were front and center. As such, there’s some piece of all of these issues we’ll rightfully be talking about in the months ahead:

Red Zone Issues!

After Tennessee’s opening drive was blown up by a holding penalty on the first snap, the Vols’ next three drives had:

  • 1st-and-Goal at the 7
  • 1st-and-10 at the 13, followed by 2nd-and-3 at the 6
  • 1st-and-10 at the 13

And the Vols settled for a turnover on downs and two field goals.

We’ve got eight months to talk about Tennessee’s struggles in the red zone. We will use all the words. For all the good Tennessee actually did this season, they could’ve done even more with even average proficiency inside the 20. Instead, Tennessee ended the season scoring touchdowns (23) on less than half (47) of their red zone visits.

Had the Vols lost tonight, those three drives ending in only six points would’ve been culprit number one. Do not miss chances to put a team that might be happy to be there down three possessions.

Quarterback Drama!

Tennessee’s defense did everything right in the first half except stop Peyton Ramsey from scrambling when plays broke down. The Vols led 6-3 at halftime but had dominated statistically. The Hoosiers, to their credit, adjusted with a 12-play, 69-yard touchdown drive taking 5:31 off the clock to open the third quarter. Still, the box score showed no reason to worry. And Jauan Jennings was back!

Indiana knew it too.

A force to Jennings, whether by design or decision, led to Jarrett Guarantano’s second interception, this one returned to the house. Suddenly the Vols trailed 16-6 (thanks to a crucial missed extra point), and responded with…Brian Maurer.

It felt like a message-sending decision, right or wrong. Maurer, as he did at Florida several lifetimes ago, led the Vols downfield for three points while narrowly missing a couple of interceptions. Guarantano came right back in.

The Hoosiers – who deserve a lot of credit for doing plenty of little things in a game they were losing badly in the box score – nailed a 49-yard field goal to go back up 10. Guarantano went three-and-out. IU drove to 1st-and-10 at the Vol 16 yard line with 13 minutes to play. The Hoosiers’ win expectancy at this point via ESPN.com: 95.4%.

And then, they got cute: a give to Whop Philyor was blown up for a loss of seven, leading to another field goal and a 22-9 lead with 10:27 to play. And Guarantano went three-and-out again. IU’s win probability: 97.2%.

At this point, ye olde quarterback battle in spring practice was looking w-i-d-e open. It might still be, we’ll see. That’s still going to be a major talking point this off-season.

But Guarantano and the Vols weren’t dead yet.

Life From Death!

Tennessee got the ball back at their own 18 yard line with seven minutes to play. Some combination of Pruitt, Guarantano, and Jim Chaney made a simple adjustment: get your struggling quarterback going by checking it down to the running backs, with IU’s defense playing on its heels.

Coming in, Vol running backs had 26 catches in 12 games, 2.2 per contest. The first two plays of this drive went to Eric Gray underneath coverage for 34 yards. Then Jauan Jennings got in on the action for 22 more. Then it was back to the backs, this time Ty Chandler for eight more. On the night, Vol running backs caught six passes for 57 yards.

Tom Hart and Kenny Mayne have both mentioned on ESPN’s air that no team in college football had come back from down 13+ points with less than five minutes to go this season. After Jennings drew a pass interference call on 3rd-and-10, Quavaris Crouch punched it in from the one yard line to pull the Vols within six with 4:21 to play.

Onside kick? Onside kick.

Then Guarantano to Palmer, plus facemask, plus Eric Gray from 16 yards out for the lead.

When we’re discussing the plays of the year, there are a handful of candidates that might not get remembered when we’re looking back on this decade in 2029. But in putting this season back together, there were so many little moments that mattered much: Guarantano to Tyler Byrd against Mississippi State, the blocked punt against South Carolina, the third-and-fourth-down stops at Kentucky. That onside kick – decision and execution – belong on that list, and maybe atop it. I think Kentucky will end up being the best team Tennessee beat this year, so that probably tips the scales. You don’t get to January without going through Kentucky. But now that we’re here, this kick set the tone for the entire off-season.

Tennessee out-gained the Hoosiers 374 to 303. Indiana scored one offensive touchdown. It’s a game somewhere between Missouri and Kentucky on the “we should’ve won that by more” scale. It’s a semi-fun truth: for all the good Tennessee did in this winning streak, they could’ve played even better. That was certainly true tonight.

But as adversity, self-inflicted or otherwise, presented itself, this Tennessee team again rose to the occasion. They did it in new and dramatic fashion tonight, coming from behind in a way no other team has this season. And they did it showing the same fight that got us to Jacksonville in the first place.

We’ll spend the off-season picking apart the red zone choices and wondering what exactly is going to happen at quarterback. But we’ll spend it on a six-game winning streak at the end of an 8-5 season – the third-best since 2008 – because at the end of a season that once was lost and now is found, the Vols almost gave it away tonight, then roared back better than ever.

Never, ever a dull moment around here.

Go Vols.

Gator Bowl Preview: No Parking on the Bridge

New Year’s Day is one of my favorite holidays; I joke this time of year that many are spiritual in December’s holy days, but everyone is religious on January 1. It’s newness and grace on a calendar page. And there’s football!

January Matters.

In Tennessee’s upswing from 1989-2007, the Vols played in a traditional January bowl 15 times in 19 years. Tennessee stayed home in 2005, and caught back-to-back Peach Bowls in 2002 and 2003 (the latter was played on January 2, the only Peach/Chick-fil-A Bowl played in January between 1999 and its promotion to the College Football Playoff in 2014). And in December 1994, a freshman named Peyton Manning led the Vols to a 45-23 win over Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl, which was played in The Swamp during construction on the Jacksonville Jaguars’ new stadium. That was the last of a four-year December run for the Gator Bowl, which returned to January the following season.

We rightfully hold up 1995-98 as Tennessee’s absolute peak: a 45-5 record in those four years was the best in college football, along with two SEC titles, a #2 finish in 1995, and a national championship. Extend it out to the “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001, when the Vols went 129-29-2 in 13 years, and that .813 winning percentage is the best in the SEC in that time (data via stassen.com). But Tennessee also had the best winning percentage in the SEC if you take it all the way to 1989-2007, decimal points ahead of the Gators (.7678) at 181-54-2 (.7679) in that 19-year run.

That math works out to around 10 wins a year in a 13-game season, 10.5 wins if you use the .813 percentage from 1989-2001. It was both expectation and celebration, and it almost always ended in January. We grew accustomed to starting the new year with football. And that, like many other things, has changed since 2008.

Let the (recent!) past die.

After appearing in traditional January 1 bowls 15 times in 19 years from 1989-2007, the Vols have been twice in the last dozen years. Tomorrow will make three.

Playing in any bowl game has become a 50/50 proposition: this season’s Gator Bowl is just the sixth time in these last twelve years Tennessee made the postseason at all. The Vols found their way to January following the 2014 (Gator) and 2015 (Outback) seasons, plus a pair of Music City Bowls and the December Chick-fil-A Bowl in Lane Kiffin’s 2009 season.

As is the case when you’re building a program, what you celebrate early shouldn’t be what you celebrate often. This year – especially this year, given how things looked in September – Tennessee making it to the Gator Bowl is a job well done. As we’ve been saying since May, if the Vols win, an 8-5 finish would be the third-best record of these last dozen years, bested only by a pair of 9-4’s from Butch Jones in 2015-16 that left so much more on the table.

The math is noteworthy for the 2019 team at the close of the decade as well: assigning the Gator Bowl outcome to the last decade will break a 62-62 tie for the Vols since 2010.

After having the SEC’s best winning percentage from 1989-2007, the Vols are 11th in the league from 2008-2019, besting only Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt. The 2010’s stick out like a sore thumb in Tennessee’s own past:

DecadeWLPct
2010s62620.500
2000s83440.654
1990s99220.818
1980s77370.675
1970s75390.658
1960s67320.677
1950s72310.699

Tennessee historically wins between 65-70% of its games, averaging around 8.75 wins per year in a 13-game season. Should the Vols return to their own historical precedent, an 8-5 season would be rightfully considered below average.

All of this is why it’s really interesting to me that this game comes at the landmark of a new decade. You can’t redeem a decade-plus of frustration by beating Indiana to get one game over .500 the last 10 years. But a win could be the last, best example of what has a chance to be the greatest legacy of the 2019 Vols.

And if you don’t love me now

When the Vols lost to Georgia State and BYU, we wrote that progress – the only thing that mattered this season – should be measured not to the top, but from the bottom. Remarkably, this team still found a way to put the third-best year of the last dozen back on the table.

All these years and all these words about getting “back” have usually been in reference to those peak years: the late 90’s, or even that “decade” of dominance. But Tennessee is still trying to get back to being Tennessee: a program that can call a nine-win season average, allowing us to realistically hope for something more every fall and play football most Januaries.

This team, at the end of this decade, fought their way from its lowest point. And if Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols return to Tennessee’s historical success in the next decade, this group can forever be remembered as a bridge between the two, and one of the most important links in the Volunteer chain.

It’s true for those who will play their final game in a Tennessee uniform against Indiana: Jennings and Callaway, Bituli and Taylor, Nigel Warrior and probably Trey Smith. And it’s true for those who have a chance to shine tomorrow and even brighter in 2020: Jarrett Guarantano, a host of running backs, freshmen who aren’t freshmen anymore, and guys like Bryce Thompson who are one game away from being the upperclassmen leaders.

We’ve seen a lot of new and unusual in these last ten years, perhaps nothing on the field more so than these last twelve games. Against the odds, this team won their way to a thirteenth opportunity in January. They are, like all who wear orange, tied to Tennessee’s past. And they are laying the foundation for a better future, with one opportunity left.

It’s a new year, and Tennessee is playing football in January. So far, so good.

Go Vols.