Gameday on Rocky Top

Are the suspensions of Silvio De Sousa and David McCormack good news or bad news for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes?

If this was college football, maybe you lean into the bad news argument: one game against a top five opponent (and number one in KenPom) playing without a starter and a key reserve, if you beat them they weren’t at full strength, if they beat you it’s a worse loss, etc. But in the 30+ game landscape of college basketball, I don’t think a Tennessee upset at Kansas gets poo-pooed on Selection Sunday unless the Jayhawks fall off the earth without De Sousa, which seems unlikely given that he plays a little more than eight minutes per game. Winning at Kansas would still be a huge deal for this team, and now you’ve got them a little short-handed.

Only a little, though, so a loss here doesn’t end or dramatically change Tennessee’s own bubble hopes. The Vols were in the next four out in the January 23 Bracket Matrix, appearing in 16 of 96 brackets (16.7%). Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols as the first team out.

This Tennessee team continues to find itself in the space between its own history. Here’s a chart we’ve used before, showing Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era:

Year	KenPom	Record	Finish
2019	26.24	31-6	Sweet 16
2014	23.69	24-13	Sweet 16
2018	22.27	26-9	Round 2
2008	22.17	31-5	Sweet 16
2006	19.44	22-8	Round 2
2010	18.50	28-9	Elite 8
2007	18.29	24-11	Sweet 16
2009	16.48	21-13	Round 1
2020	13.50	12-6
2002	12.67	15-16
2017	12.62	16-16
2011	12.41	19-15	Round 1
2012	11.38	19-15	NIT
2003	10.99	17-12	NIT
2013	10.47	20-13	NIT
2005	8.89	14-17
2016	7.31	15-19
2004	7.30	15-14	NIT
2015	7.24	16-16

The Vols continue to play a tick below every Tennessee team to make the NCAA Tournament post-Jerry Green except one (Bruce Pearl’s final season), and a tick above the rest of the field. Some of those Tennessee teams in that next group down made the NIT, some finished at or near .500.

If you compare the Vols to a couple of teams we hoped could make the tournament in late January, you’ll find some cautionary tales. Donnie Tyndall’s squad was 12-5 (4-1) five years ago today, though just 77th in KenPom. And the advanced metrics proved to be true: Tennessee went 3-10 the rest of the regular season, failed to make the NIT, and finished with the lowest KenPom rating of any Vol squad (2002-present).

Rick Barnes’ second squad lost to Chattanooga in the opener, dropped a pair of close games in Maui, and almost won at Chapel Hill. They were 9-9 (2-4) through their first 18 games before winning four in a row, including Kentucky and Kansas State in Knoxville, to get to 13-9 (5-4) at the end of January. But they went 3-6 the rest of the way home, and also failed to make the NIT despite finishing that season 57th in KenPom.

So we’ve seen Tennessee get to this point through the first third of SEC play twice in the last six years, only to watch them peak too soon and ultimately miss both the NCAA and the NIT. This season there’s a separate conversation to be had with Tennessee’s schedule, which takes a step up in February and then a giant leap in the last five games (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). Right now, the Vols just need wins; the opportunity for quality will be there at the end if the total is high enough to be in the conversation.

But if you’re looking for a resume win, this would be the best one of the season, with or without De Sousa and McCormack.

It’s clearly a chaos year in college basketball, which leads to a soft bubble. The current last four in via the Bracket Matrix:

• Virginia Tech 14-5 (5-3), 57 KenPom
• NC State 14-5 (5-3), 43 KenPom
• Minnesota 11-8 (5-4), 34 KenPom
• DePaul 13-6 (1-5), 62 KenPom

And here’s who went to Dayton last year:

• Belmont 27-6 (16-2), 49 KenPom
• Temple 23-10 (13-5), 69 KenPom
• St. John’s 21-13 (8-10), 88 KenPom
• Arizona State 23-11 (12-6), 57 KenPom

Last season only two teams with more than 13 losses made the field as an at-large: Florida (19-15) as a 10 seed, Ohio State (19-14) as an 11. That might get a run for its money this season. If Tennessee ends the regular season at 18-13 (10-8) – its current KenPom projection – the Vols should be in the conversation.

A win over Kansas would do incredible things for that conversation. But even without that, a good performance from the SEC in this weekend’s challenge would be big. Unlike years past, we’ll get most of the league’s best in the running tomorrow: Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Georgia sit it out this year. Big 12 teams are still favored in six of ten matchups in KenPom:

• Missouri at #14 West Virginia – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• Iowa State at #16 Auburn – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
• LSU at Texas – 2:00 PM – ESPN
• Mississippi State at Oklahoma – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
• Tennessee at #3 Kansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN
• TCU at Arkansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
• Oklahoma State at Texas A&M – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
• #15 Kentucky at #18 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN
• Kansas State at Alabama – 6:00 PM – ESPN2
• #1 Baylor at Florida – 8:00 PM – ESPN

The SEC is currently tied for fourth among major conferences in KenPom’s league efficiency ratings, a clear step behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12 – which is why a tie or win tomorrow would be huge for the league – but a crowded SEC can hold its own against the ACC and Pac-12, creating opportunity on the bubble.

At the top of all these projections, of course, is Kansas. The Jayhawks are number one in KenPom, but chaos controls atop the ladder as well: until their 21-point win over Kansas State, Kansas led the nation in KenPom but their efficiency rating was below 30. Only twice in the KenPom era has the number one team finished with a rating below 30: the 2006 Florida Gators, and in 2003, when 32-4 Kentucky finished atop the leaderboard but was upset by Dwyane Wade in the Elite Eight. Both of those seasons saw three seeds win the NCAA Tournament, and elite superstars can shine in the absence of an elite team (Horford and Noah in 2006, Wade plus Carmelo Anthony from the eventual champs in 2003). To put this in perspective: the 2019 Vols, 10th in KenPom with a 26.24 efficiency rating, would be 3rd in 2020 KenPom right now.

There are still good reasons Kansas is number one, and they start with Devon Dotson: the 6’2″ sophomore guard leads the race for KenPom Player of the Year, and is in the Top 300 nationally in ten different statistical categories. Offensively, he’s been sensational at getting to the line: 6.4 attempts per game shooting 82.5% from the stripe. This happened to Tennessee last year, when Dotson had 17 points on eight shots plus 6-of-7 at the stripe in their overtime win. Defensively, Dotson has created at least one steal in every game this season, including five in their overtime win against Dayton. This is very bad news for a Tennessee team currently giving up a steal on 11% of its possessions; how the primary ball-handlers deal with Dotson and the environment is step one of any blueprint for an uspet.

The loss of a 6’9″ and 6’10” player due to suspension would be a big deal for just about any other team…but Udoka Azubuike negates a bunch of that. Everything we’ve been saying about the importance of John Fulkerson getting quality touches in the paint – 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 34th nationally in two-point field goal percentage – Azubuike is the poster child for. He leads the nation in effective field goal percentage because the seven-footer is 94-of-122 (77%) from inside the arc. For a Tennessee defense built on shot-blocking (12th nationally) and playing great defense inside the arc (4th nationally), Azubuike is the biggest test Tennessee will see all season.

It’s a tough ask: Dotson excels at taking the ball away from an already-sloppy Tennessee backcourt, Azubuike excels at scoring inside in ways that might negate Tennessee’s greatest defensive strength. Kansas is projected to win by 14 in KenPom; playing close may not help the tournament resume directly, but would move the Vols up the ladder wherever advanced metrics come into play.

So how do you beat this team? What worked for Baylor (don’t foul Dotson, don’t turn it over) and, to a degree, Villanova, doesn’t seem as feasible for Tennessee. But what the Vols can do, for starters: don’t be afraid to get physical and put them on the line. Kansas shoots 66.7% as a team; take away Dotson (and McCormack, a 75% shooter), and you’ve got Azubuike at 40.3% (29-of-72) and Marcus Garrett at 67.4%.

And on the other end, going at these guys and getting Azubuike off the floor would expose the absence of De Sousa and McCormack. A couple quick fouls on the seven footer could change the complexion of this game, and Tennessee’s best basketball in the post-Lamonte/Santiago Vescovi world has involved getting to the line: Tennessee shot five free throws against LSU and a dozen at Georgia, but in the four wins:

• Missouri: 12-of-16 (75%)
• South Carolina: 22-of-28 (78%)
• Vanderbilt: 13-of-14 (92%)
• Ole Miss: 20-of-24 (83%)

Get in there and bang, on both ends of the floor.

What’s interesting about Saturday is it’ll be the first time in a few years that #Vols basketball can go into any game with absolutely nothign to lose.

Might as well play fast and hard and see what happens, right? Nothing to lose.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) January 23, 2020

The bubble is still going to be there on Sunday. In a season full of chaos, one we’ve felt con gusto in Knoxville, Tennessee can create a little more of its own on Saturday. Land some blows, climb the ladder, and we’ll see if the Vols can cash it in.

College Gameday at 11:00 AM, then the Vols and Kansas at 4:00 PM (with the A-team of Shulman, Bilas, and Rowe). Big day ahead.

Go Vols.

From the archives in the garage where this humble little thing was birthed:

It’s a bird! It’s a clown! It’s a Clown-Bird, complete with oversized puffy shoes and an abnormally-sized see-through beak. Sue Grafton says K is for Kill, but Kansas’ Jayhawk is not intimidating. Frightening, in a Teletubbie in your garage kind of way, yes, but intimidating? No.

LOL, your logo is sooo scary! at Rocky Top Talk

Apologies, but I thought it was worth setting the stage for Tennessee’s game against the Kansas Clown-Birds Saturday. Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for the game. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season. Hide the children.

Oof. The Clown-Birds are much, much better at shooting the ball than Tennessee, which you’d think would be hard to do with those shoes. Pretty much, they’re much, much better at everything. But you know what’s funny? They’re almost as bad as Tennessee at the thing Tennessee does worst: turning the ball over. Hahahahaha. Ahem.

Summary and Score Prediction

All those Feelies you’ve been having the past couple of games where the Vols have been shooting well? Expect those particular emojis to turn pink, then red, and then sweat blood before they shoot steam out their ears and blow up. Expecting the Vols to shoot well against Kansas is a recipe for disappointment and distress.

But chin up, because although the Clown Birds generally shoot really well, they’ll be going up against an elite shooting defense in Tennessee. Big 12, meet Yves Pons. He can jump higher than you can shoot. Go ahead, try it.

More bad news: Kansas is playing at home, and the scouting report says that they wear cloaking devices at Allen Fieldhouse, devices that protect them from the prying eyes of the officials and thereby bestow upon them a kind of Foul Amnesty. Hey, it’s not just me. We, on the other hand, must deal with not being invisible, which sucks but is the way of the world.

Other than that, the numbers suggest that Kansas’ edge in rebounding is only slight and that the teams will attempt to outdo each other in the turnover department, giving the ball to the other team more often than that 1987 fruitcake at your white elephant office Christmas party this year. It has the makin’s of something sloppy, is what I’m saying.

The goals for the Vols:

1. If you shoot poorly, make them shoot worse. Possess this ability, you do.
2. Turn turnovers into easy points. If somebody gives you cake, you eat it, right? Eat the cake.
3. If able, steal their cloaking devices. If you manage this, the Big 12 will award you an honorary doctorate from every school in the conference. Except probably Kansas.

KenPom gives Tennessee a whopping 10% chance of winning and puts the score at Kansas 68, Tennessee 54. I’m hoping for more cake and a closer game.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Well, Tennessee’s been shooting better recently (49% from the field and 29.4% from three against Ole Miss and 53.1% from the field against Vanderbilt), but the Vols’ effective field goal percentage is still lagging at 48.5. This ranks them as No. 216 in the nation. (There’s a reason you’ve never heard the cheer “We’re No. 216! We’re No. 216! I mean besides being as awkward as “Okay Google.”) Kansas, on the other hand, well, they’re elite shooters. Bums.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Well, look at that. We’re all in the 200s. If too many turnovers is good enough for Kansas, maybe I’ll stop complaining about them. (But probably not.)

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Okay, not terrible here, but Kansas is still better.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ditto that on free throw rate. Kansas is better, but not by a lot.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

You’ll recall that We’re No. 216 in eFG%. That stat will be going up against a Kansas defensive eFG% of . . . 43.7 (No. 15). Great.

When Kansas has the ball

The Jayhawks’ eFG% is 54.9 (No. 12), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.9 (No. 7). Hey, that could work.

Conclusions

Don’t disappoint yourself by expecting Tennessee to shoot as well against Kansas as it did against Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Hey, if it happens, by all means do some cartwheels, but if it doesn’t, don’t take it out on your TV. Now that I think about it, get out the chickenwire.

The good news is that Tennessee should be able to return the favor of frustration.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee turned the ball over only 8 times against Ole Miss, but somehow this YUGE news got swallowed up by an ever-growing fascination for the flopsy-haired John Fulkerson. The Vols turnover % is still squarely in Terrible Territory at 20.8 (No. 263), but the Jayhawks’ defensive counterpart to this stat isn’t anything to wire home about at 19.3 (No. 161).

When Kansas has the ball

Kansas’ turnover % is located in the same sketchy campground as the Vols, at 19.6 (No. 204), and Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.2 (No. 113).

Conclusions

Forecast: Sloppy. Think pigs in a mudslide.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 29.2 (No. 129), and Kansas’ defense in that category is 25.7 (No. 75). Whatever.

When Kansas has the ball

The Jayhawks’ OR% is 32.5 (No. 56), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27.3 (No. 143).

Conclusions

So, uh, these guys can rebound, but this is far from an uneven match.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.3 (No. 123), while Kansas’ defense against that is 22.4 (No. 15). So they play defense without fouling, apparently. This, presumably, is due to the fact that they play roughly half of their games in Allen Fieldhouse, where they reportedly never touch anybody.

When Kansas has the ball

The Jayhawks’ FT Rate is 35.4 (No. 93), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 28.1 (No. 86).

Conclusions

Look, the notion that the Clown Birds get favorable whistles at home is so widely reported that it might even be partly true. Deal with it.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Ole Miss Rebels. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

In the second half against Vanderbilt Saturday, the Vols seemed to finally figure out how to get behind the defense, whether that was by foregoing threes, by transition offense resulting from good defense on the other end, by an increased emphasis and better execution getting the ball into the post, or by simply driving or passing around defenders to penetrate into the lane. Whatever the case, they shot 66.67% in the second half after managing only 40% in the first.

If that becomes a thing, and if the Vols can continue to keep their already stellar defensive play intact while doing it, then everything should begin to improve. Tonight against Ole Miss, they should have an opportunity to see if that second half at Vandy was an aberration or the first glimpse of a blossoming identity that can serve them well the rest of the way.

The goals for the Vols:

1. On offense, get behind the outside guards. Drive or pass into the post or lane. Play inside-out. However you phrase it, get closer to the basket and continue to improve that shooting percentage.
2. On defense, do what you do, but when you’re done, get to the other end quickly so everything in Step 1 is easier.
3. Turnovers. Sigh. Somebody do something about this.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 78% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 68, Ole Miss 60. We’ll take that.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: As much trouble in the form of inconsistency the Vols have been having shooting the ball this season, Ole Miss really isn’t much better.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Shaking my head at the Vols ranking No. 285 in turnover percentage. Fortunately, the Rebels are pretty careless with the ball, too.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Well here we go. The Vols appear to be much better than Ole Miss at grabbing offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ole Miss is a lot like Cincinnati in getting to the free throw line, and they’re much better at it than the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Despite shooting much better from the field against Vanderbilt (53.1%), Tennessee’s eFG% is still only 48.2 (No. 227). It will be going up against an Ole Miss defensive eFG% of 48.4 (No. 148).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ eFG% is 49.2 (No. 187), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 43.4 (No. 13).

Conclusions

It’s anybody’s guess at this point how well or how poorly the Vols will shoot against any given team. The good news, though, is that the Vols’ shooting defense is really, really good, so shooting better than the opponent is always on the table.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s terrible turnover % is now 21.2 (No. 285), while the Rebels’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 20.3 (No. 114).

When Ole Miss has the ball

Ole Miss’ turnover % is 19.7 (No. 206), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.4 (No. 105).

Conclusions

I’m not sure that the opponent matters so much anymore for the Vols, as they just need to focus on not just gifting the ball to the other team. Period.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 107), but Ole Miss’ defense in that category is 24.9 (No. 50).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ OR% is 27.3 (No. 210), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27 (No. 120).

Conclusions

Offensive boards should be at a premium for both teams tonight.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.5 (No. 143), while Ole Miss’ defense against that is 37.5 (No. 278).

When Ole Miss has the ball

The Rebels’ FT Rate is 36.7 (No. 72), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 28.8 (No. 109).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s still not especially good at getting to the line, but the Vols should have some opportunities to get there more often than usual tonight against the Rebs. This is especially true if the ability to get behind the defense against the Commodores in the second half becomes a thing.

Go Vols.

First, the history: Vanderbilt, as I’m sure you know by now, made a three in each of its 1,080 games since the line came to college basketball in 1986. Tonight, they went 0-for-25.

That’s fun, and the kind of semi-petty rivalry stuff you love. It’s strange to say, but the Vols have now won five of six at Memorial Gym, and four straight since Kevin Stallings left.

The history will get the headlines, but Tennessee’s defense overall was outstanding: the Commodores, to their credit, went 21-of-26 at the free throw line, which is the only reason they didn’t score something in the 30’s. Along with 0-for-25 from three, Vandy went 12-of-26 from two. A dozen made shots is the fewest the Vols have allowed since Donnie Tyndall’s season, when Mississippi State hit 11.

In the first half, it looked like we would have to embrace our worst fears for the rest of this season. The Vols led 21-20 at the break and neither team made a three. But the start of the second half was indeed Tennessee’s best basketball without Lamonte Turner. After a Fulkerson turnover to open the second 20 minutes, we got the following sequence:

• Fulkerson steal
• Bowden layup
• Bowden steal
• Bowden layup
• Vanderbilt turnover
• Vescovi jumper
• Vanderbilt miss
• Pons wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1218691525238050817

After scoring 21 points in the first 20 minutes, the Vols hit an 8-0 spurt in less than 90 seconds. Defense led to offense, offense went to the rim, rinse repeat: the Vols hit 10 of their first 11 shots in the second half and finished at 53.1% from the floor. Most importantly, perhaps: the Vols went just 1-of-8 from three.

Tennessee’s previous season low on attempted threes: their best win, 13 against Washington. The Vols had an eight-three game against Tennessee Tech last season; before that, you have to go back to the Cuonzo Maritn era to find a single digit three game.

Vanderbilt is struggling, especially without Aaron Nesmith, and you can’t build a resume on what you do against the Commodores right now. But you can build confidence, and that’s exactly what it looked like Jordan Bowden did tonight. It’s the kind of game we thought we’d need from him coming into the season: leads the team in shots at 7-of-11, plus gets to the line eight times and hits seven. The high-percentage stuff inside was there too: John Fulkerson took 10 shots after getting just two at Georgia, making five to finish with 12 points and 8 rebounds. Pons went 5-of-7. Josiah James was just 2-of-8 but facilitated on the break like a champ, picking up a number of hockey assists after grabbing nine defensive rebounds. And while the Vols are still working in Plavsic, they also got nice bench minutes from Olivier Nkamhoua with four points and four boards.

In KenPom the Vols go to #25 in defensive efficiency. I doubt teams are going to go 0-for-three the rest of the way, but Tennessee can still cause all kinds of trouble on one end of the floor to create better opportunities for itself where it struggles on the other end. Tennessee welcomes Ole Miss on Tuesday night, currently leading the only undefeated team left in conference play from LSU. Then the Vols go to Kansas, number one in KenPom and hosting College Gameday on Saturday. There’s a lot of basketball in front of the 11-6 (3-2) Vols. The competition will get stiffer and the luck will be kinder to future opponents. But the makings of Tennessee’s best basketball were on display tonight; hopefully they and the confidence they inspired will come on back to Knoxville.

Go Vols.

The Vols fell to 10-6 (2-2) on Wednesday. Sure, Georgia shot well above their averages from three (10-of-23) and at the line (16-of-21), doing us no favors. But Tennessee’s offensive woes continued, even as the quality of defensive competition decreased. The Vols took 26 threes and made only six of them, while getting to the line only a dozen times. Jordan Bowden was better from inside the arc, but went 0-for-5 from three (as did Yves Pons). It was a forgettable performance in a 17-point loss that was worse than that for much of the night.

It’s not exclusively good news, but the league is a certified mess right now. Kentucky lost 81-78 at the same South Carolina team that struggled to score 55 in Knoxville. And top five Auburn, 15-0, went to Alabama and lost by 19 in just their third game against a Top 50 KenPom opponent this season.

Those same ratings project LSU – 4-0 and with a schedule that includes Kentucky and Auburn just once each – to win the league at 13-5, with five other teams finishing between 12-6 and 10-8. KenPom projects more of the same for the Vols: a 9-9 SEC finish (plus a loss at Kansas) which would leave Tennessee at 17-14 on the year.

It’s still too early with too many moving pieces to throw in the towel on this season, but it’s also too early to assume the NIT would be a safe landing spot. As has been the case since Lamonte Turner went out, Tennessee simply needs wins. The younger players getting better is probably the biggest storyline for the program, but if the Vols can piece together more wins like Missouri and South Carolina, they can at least stay in the postseason conversation.

To do that, it’s abundantly clear they have to rely on their defense, still 37th nationally in KenPom and eighth nationally in defending inside the arc, thanks in part to being 17th nationally in shot blocking. That has to become the constant, with Vescovi and Plavsic getting better and not worse as things go along. On the offensive side, there are enough individual points of hope to make Barnes’ frustrations justified, like this:

#Vols coach Rick Barnes: We need so much more from our guards, and we need a post guy to step up and want to score the ball. Fulky just won’t accept that role. Tonight was Uros’ first game, but he actually did some of that stuff, which was good to see.

— Wes Rucker (@wesrucker247) January 16, 2020

Fulkerson is 69-of-104 (66.3%) on the year, making him 45th nationally in two-point field goal percentage and 15th in effective field goal percentage. If you thought Kyle Alexander was a high percentage bucket in there, he shot 61.7% from two last year. What Fulkerson is doing is closer to Alexander’s 2018 season, when he went 76-of-112 (67.9%). The difference, of course, is the last two Vol teams had a number of other offensive options. On the current Tennessee roster, going inside to Fulkerson is one of the best plays the Vols can make. Some defenses do a great job denying the ball in there, some can create a mismatch with size in the post. But even as Tennessee is trying to work in Plavsic in the post, we can’t have a game where Fulkerson takes only two shots (Georgia) or three (Wisconsin). Do watch the seven footer as he gets a feel here: Plavsic took six shots in 17 minutes compared to Fulkerson’s two in 22.

Tennessee is fourth nationally in assist rate, sharing the ball on 65.4% of their made baskets. Sometimes that comes via style of play: VMI is second in the nation in this department with nearly half their shots coming from the arc. But while a number of elite offenses get there this way – Michigan State, Iowa, Dayton, Tennessee last year – it’s clearly not a sign of an elite offense by itself. Maine is seventh nationally in assist rate, but 335th in KenPom offense and 5-13 overall.

What it tells us about Tennessee: the Vols can’t get buckets without ball movement. There’s no one on this team who successfully creates their own shot. That should change next year, though it isn’t always tied to a Rick Barnes offense: the Vols were 188th in this stat his first year in the Kevin Punter show. In the early portion of this season, Lamonte Turner put up numbers that would still rank fourth nationally in assist rate. Vescovi is making progress in his assist-to-turnover ratio, but it’s a big ask for him to even approach what Lamonte was doing for this team early in the season. Still, the Vols can be good here – assisting on 18 of 24 made shots against LSU, 10 of 14 against South Carolina – with an emphasis on simply getting good shots. I’m fine with open threes that don’t go down. Clearly there are few bad shots for Fulkerson in the post. Too often Tennessee gets bogged down in the half-court and is forced to make a bad decision at the end of the shot clock. Get good shots, and trust your defense to take care of the difference.

What’s a good shot when the Vols don’t get quality touches in the post and have to settle for more threes? We need more data on Vescovi, who is now 11-of-22 on the year. Early returns from Yves Pons have cooled: he’s now at 30.2%. Jordan Bowden continues to struggle at 27.8%. By far the brightest spot right now: Josiah James at 20-of-51 (39.2%). He’s been shooting it more in Lamonte’s absence, 12-of-21 (57.1%) in the last five games. It’s clearly not enough to win by itself, but the Vols would be well suited to look and create for the freshman more.

You can’t assume anything in the SEC this year, but the closest thing might be Vanderbilt. The Commodores are 8-8 in Jerry Stackhouse’s first season, and just lost Aaron Nesmith with a stress fracture. It’s a bad blow for their program, who just lost a year of Darius Garland last season. Nesmith’s absence puts even more on Saben Lee, with a host of freshmen behind him.

The Commodores put a scare in Auburn on the road, but without Nesmith lost to Texas A&M in Nashville by 19 and at Arkansas by 20. Other than UNC Asheville and Alabama State, Vanderbilt is the worst defense Tennessee will see all season, by far. The Commodores are 249th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. They foul a lot, which could help Tennessee get more of their offense heading in that direction. And they’re the worst team in the league overall at 161st in KenPom.

As we know, you assume nothing in Memorial Gym, where the freshly-minted #1 Vols almost went down last season. But it’s the best possible SEC opponent given what’s currently ailing Tennessee.

6:00 PM ET Saturday on the SEC Network.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Vanderbilt Commodores. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

This makes it look like Vanderbilt is shooting better than Tennessee and getting to the line more often, but that the Vols are rebounding better. Let’s take a closer look.

Summary and Score Prediction

Let’s hope some of this bad news is the result of hitting the reset button too many times, thus dropping a team in search of chemistry into a field full of opponents with a head start in finding their own. Still, the Vols need to improve almost everything, and shooting better and limiting turnovers are chief on the long list of important tasks. They’ll have opportunities against Vanderbilt, but they’ll also need to make sure they stay in character on defense as well to come out of Nashville with a win tomorrow.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Shoot better. Start with getting the ball to John Fulkerson in the post. Aim for a better percentage than Vanderbilt both from the field and from the arc. (I know — duh. But if they do that, they’ll be shooting better than usual and also holding Vanderbilt to something less than theirs.)
2. Limit the turnovers. Ten or fewer would be good.
3. Capitalize on the rebounding advantage.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 64% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 71, Vanderbilt 67. Sounds about right to me.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: The Commodores are a much better shooting team than the Vols. In fact, they’re the best-shooting team we’ve played this season and very similar to LSU in this regard.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Vanderbilt also protects the ball much better than Tennessee does (obvs). They are most similar to FSU among prior Vols opponents.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Vols have the advantage in offensive rebounding, and the Commodores are most similar to Florida A&M and Chattanooga in this category.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most similar to Memphis (and Murray State) and with a pretty significant advantage over the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is a dismal 47.9 (No. 232), but it will be going up against a similarly dismal defense that is 51.5 (No. 253).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ eFG% is 54 (No. 25), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 31).

Conclusions

When it comes to shooting percentages, it’s weakness-on-weakness and strength-on-strength, and about evenly-matched to boot.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a terrible turnover % of 20.9 (No. 267), while the Commodores’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 19.9 (No. 138).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

Vanderbilt’s turnover % is 18.8 (No. 130), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.1 (No. 122).

Conclusions

As I said the last time around, the Vols are always going to be outmatched in this category (from an offensive perspective) until they earn some dramatic improvement. They’ll have an opportunity tomorrow. As far as forcing turnovers, the stage is set for a normal result.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30 (No. 113). Vanderbilt’s defense in that category is 28.9 (No. 205).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ OR% is 27.2 (No. 210), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 26.8 (No. 112).

Conclusions

The Vols appear to have a pretty good edge in rebounding. They’ll need it.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate remains 33.8 (No. 133), while Vanderbilt’s defense against that is 35 (No. 241).

When Vanderbilt has the ball

The Commodores’ FT Rate is 40.4 (No. 23), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 27.5 (No. 85).

Conclusions

Tennessee’s not especially good at getting to the line, but the Vols should be able to get there more often than usual tomorrow against the Commodores. On the other side, Vandy’s good at getting there, but Tennessee might be able to limit those opportunities a bit.

Go Vols.

Literal big news:

.@urosp34 has been ruled eligible to compete, effective immediatelyhttps://t.co/1RO7L4kK3b

— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) January 14, 2020

A strange season takes another turn: the Vols started the year with 11 games of Lamonte Turner, and will end it, if healthy, with at least 17 games of Uros Plavsic. Turner’s absence and Tennessee’s 1-4 stretch surrounding it made it difficult for the Washington and VCU wins with Turner to be worth as much on the bubble. But now, if the Vols can get hot while working in Plavsic the same way they’ve done Santiago Vescovi, Tennessee can build a separate argument for what they’ve done with these two additions.

That starts at Georgia tonight, where the Vols will face potential number one overall pick Anthony Edwards. Tennessee saw Shaquille O’Neal at LSU in the early 90’s – shout out to Carlus Groves – then didn’t play a number one pick for the next 15 years. That’s changed drastically since then, thanks in large part to John Calipari:

2016	Ben Simmons	LSU
2015	Karl-Anthony Towns	Kentucky
2012	Anthony Davis	Kentucky
2010	John Wall	Kentucky
2008	Derrick Rose	Memphis
2007	Greg Oden	Ohio State

The Vols beat Ben Simmons in the regular season but lost the rematch in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee also beat John Wall in Knoxville in 2010 and, of course, got the best of Derrick Rose and Memphis in 2008.

The 6’5″ Edwards made a name for himself by scoring 37 points against Michigan State, including 7-of-16 from the arc. He’s taken no more than nine threes in any other game, including the last two when cold spells helped the Dawgs get off to an 0-2 start in league play, thanks in large part to the schedule. Kentucky won in Athens 78-69, and Auburn held serve at home with a dominant 82-60 win. Edwards had 23 points on 17 shots against Kentucky, 18 on 17 against Auburn. He’ll put it up: via KenPom, Edwards is 18th nationally in shot percentage, taking more than a third of Georgia’s shots when he’s on the floor.

Edwards is only a 30.5% three-point shooter; when Kentucky and Auburn chased him off the line, he did go 9-of-14 inside the arc. He gets to the free throw line with 72 attempts on the year (4.8 per game), but only shoots 68.1% once there. Did someone mention a seven foot rim protector with five more fouls to give?

Edwards also shares the ball well, relatively speaking, but when it goes in for Georgia from another player it’s usually Rayshaun Hammonds. The 6’9″ junior plays the five, which means right away we get to talk about Uros giving Tennessee an advantage we haven’t seen all season. After the Vols found great success against Missouri playing Yves Pons at the five, I’ll be curious to see if they carve out some time for that lineup as well.

I don’t think last season’s 96-50 win in Knoxville is much of a talking point here. Georgia finished the season 11-21 (2-16), but is already way better in Tom Crean’s second season, and not solely on the strength of Edwards. They’re tested, having played Dayton and Michigan State well before opening league play with Kentucky and Auburn. And they went to Memphis and won 65-62 on January 4, and not because Edwards had a huge game (4-of-17 shooting). They held Memphis to 38.5% from the floor and took advantage of the Tigers shooting 11-of-20 at the stripe.

Memphis did pinpoint one of their biggest weaknesses: giving up offensive rebounds, where the Dawgs are 276th nationally and undersized like us on Monday. Memphis had 15 offensive rebounds against them; Auburn had 13 and Kentucky a dozen. Georgia also does themselves no favors at the free throw line or in turning the ball over.

Any team with the number one pick is dangerous; the Vols got a spark from Vescovi, and Plavsic has been practicing with the team all season, but we’re not sure exactly what we’re going to get here and that could lead to the kind of weirdness that costs us tonight. If Tennessee is truly going to build a resume on what they do from here, with Vescovi and Plavsic, it’s a nice on-ramp: at Georgia, at Vanderbilt, vs Ole Miss before we go to Kansas. If you want that argument, it needs to start with a win tonight.

Advertising enthusiasts, rejoice: 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU.

Go Vols.