From the archives in the garage where this humble little thing was birthed:
It’s a bird! It’s a clown! It’s a Clown-Bird, complete with oversized puffy shoes and an abnormally-sized see-through beak. Sue Grafton says K is for Kill, but Kansas’ Jayhawk is not intimidating. Frightening, in a Teletubbie in your garage kind of way, yes, but intimidating? No.
LOL, your logo is sooo scary! at Rocky Top Talk
Apologies, but I thought it was worth setting the stage for Tennessee’s game against the Kansas Clown-Birds Saturday. Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for the game. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season. Hide the children.
| FG% | 3FG% | TOs/G | OR/G | DR/G | FTA/G | |
| Tennessee | 42.9 | 30.5 | 13.9 | 9.78 | 26.89 | 18.56 |
| Kansas | 49.5 | 36 | 13.6 | 10.72 | 28.22 | 19.61 |
Oof. The Clown-Birds are much, much better at shooting the ball than Tennessee, which you’d think would be hard to do with those shoes. Pretty much, they’re much, much better at everything. But you know what’s funny? They’re almost as bad as Tennessee at the thing Tennessee does worst: turning the ball over. Hahahahaha. Ahem.
Summary and Score Prediction
All those Feelies you’ve been having the past couple of games where the Vols have been shooting well? Expect those particular emojis to turn pink, then red, and then sweat blood before they shoot steam out their ears and blow up. Expecting the Vols to shoot well against Kansas is a recipe for disappointment and distress.
But chin up, because although the Clown Birds generally shoot really well, they’ll be going up against an elite shooting defense in Tennessee. Big 12, meet Yves Pons. He can jump higher than you can shoot. Go ahead, try it.
More bad news: Kansas is playing at home, and the scouting report says that they wear cloaking devices at Allen Fieldhouse, devices that protect them from the prying eyes of the officials and thereby bestow upon them a kind of Foul Amnesty. Hey, it’s not just me. We, on the other hand, must deal with not being invisible, which sucks but is the way of the world.
Other than that, the numbers suggest that Kansas’ edge in rebounding is only slight and that the teams will attempt to outdo each other in the turnover department, giving the ball to the other team more often than that 1987 fruitcake at your white elephant office Christmas party this year. It has the makin’s of something sloppy, is what I’m saying.
The goals for the Vols:
- If you shoot poorly, make them shoot worse. Possess this ability, you do.
- Turn turnovers into easy points. If somebody gives you cake, you eat it, right? Eat the cake.
- If able, steal their cloaking devices. If you manage this, the Big 12 will award you an honorary doctorate from every school in the conference. Except probably Kansas.
KenPom gives Tennessee a whopping 10% chance of winning and puts the score at Kansas 68, Tennessee 54. I’m hoping for more cake and a closer game.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
| Team | eFG% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Washington | 51.4 | 86 |
| Mississippi St. | 51.2 | 93 |
| Memphis | 50.9 | 104 |
| Tennessee | 48.8 | 199 |
Conclusion: Well, Tennessee’s been shooting better recently (49% from the field and 29.4% from three against Ole Miss and 53.1% from the field against Vanderbilt), but the Vols’ effective field goal percentage is still lagging at 48.5. This ranks them as No. 216 in the nation. (There’s a reason you’ve never heard the cheer “We’re No. 216! We’re No. 216! I mean besides being as awkward as “Okay Google.”) Kansas, on the other hand, well, they’re elite shooters. Bums.
Turnover %
| Team | TO% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 20.9 | 284 |
| Jacksonville St. | 21 | 293 |
| Mississippi St. | 21.1 | 298 |
| Missouri | 21.2 | 299 |
Conclusion: Well, look at that. We’re all in the 200s. If too many turnovers is good enough for Kansas, maybe I’ll stop complaining about them. (But probably not.)
Offensive Rebound %
| Team | OR% | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St. | 40 | 2 |
| LSU | 37.2 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 28.9 | 153 |
Conclusion: Okay, not terrible here, but Kansas is still better.
Free Throw Rate
| Team | FTRate | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 37 | 68 |
| Mississippi St. | 36.9 | 69 |
| Mississippi | 36.5 | 74 |
| Tennessee | 34 | 129 |
Conclusion: Ditto that on free throw rate. Kansas is better, but not by a lot.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
You’ll recall that We’re No. 216 in eFG%. That stat will be going up against a Kansas defensive eFG% of . . . 43.7 (No. 15). Great.
When Kansas has the ball
The Jayhawks’ eFG% is 54.9 (No. 12), but Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.9 (No. 7). Hey, that could work.
Conclusions
Don’t disappoint yourself by expecting Tennessee to shoot as well against Kansas as it did against Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Hey, if it happens, by all means do some cartwheels, but if it doesn’t, don’t take it out on your TV. Now that I think about it, get out the chickenwire.
The good news is that Tennessee should be able to return the favor of frustration.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee turned the ball over only 8 times against Ole Miss, but somehow this YUGE news got swallowed up by an ever-growing fascination for the flopsy-haired John Fulkerson. The Vols turnover % is still squarely in Terrible Territory at 20.8 (No. 263), but the Jayhawks’ defensive counterpart to this stat isn’t anything to wire home about at 19.3 (No. 161).
When Kansas has the ball
Kansas’ turnover % is located in the same sketchy campground as the Vols, at 19.6 (No. 204), and Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20.2 (No. 113).
Conclusions
Forecast: Sloppy. Think pigs in a mudslide.
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 29.2 (No. 129), and Kansas’ defense in that category is 25.7 (No. 75). Whatever.
When Kansas has the ball
The Jayhawks’ OR% is 32.5 (No. 56), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27.3 (No. 143).
Conclusions
So, uh, these guys can rebound, but this is far from an uneven match.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.3 (No. 123), while Kansas’ defense against that is 22.4 (No. 15). So they play defense without fouling, apparently. This, presumably, is due to the fact that they play roughly half of their games in Allen Fieldhouse, where they reportedly never touch anybody.
When Kansas has the ball
The Jayhawks’ FT Rate is 35.4 (No. 93), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 28.1 (No. 86).
Conclusions
Look, the notion that the Clown Birds get favorable whistles at home is so widely reported that it might even be partly true. Deal with it.
Go Vols.