Tennessee-Missouri four-factors preview

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Missouri Tigers. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season:

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
  2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
  3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee and Missouri look pretty even here. Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State among the Vols’ prior opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Again, not a lot separates these two teams on turnovers, and Missouri’s most like Jacksonville State.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Missouri’s a good team on the boards and compares best to Murray State.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Missouri’s currently tied with Florida A&M in Free Throw Rate. The Vols are better, but not by a lot.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.3 (No. 216), and it will be going up against a defense that is 41.4 (No. 5). Uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ eFG% is 49.3 (No. 178), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 44.6 (No. 36) and trending in the wrong direction.

Conclusions

As Will noted earlier this morning, Cuonzo Martin’s defense is not what you want to see if you are an offense looking for answers. Brace for ugly.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee has a turnover % of 20 (No. 207), while the Tigers’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 23 (No. 37). Also uh-oh.

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri’s turnover % is 21.5 (No. 284), while’s Tennessee’s ability to force turnovers is 20 (No. 143).

Conclusions

As with shooting percentage, the Vols’ turnover problems are likely to be magnified by Cuonzo Martin’s defensive-minded team.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.4 (No. 102). Missouri’s defense in that category is 24.8 (No. 53).

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 31.3 (No. 80), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 25.2 (No. 68).

Conclusions

Rebounding is more of an even match, although Missouri is still a good rebounding team.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.4 (No. 141), while Missouri’s defense against that is 38.2 (No. 291). Finally, some good news.

When Missouri has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 30.8 (No. 199), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 25.7 (No. 55).

Conclusions

If there’s an opportunity to be had for the Vols in this matchup, it appears to be in getting to the free-throw line. They don’t actually get there often, but Missouri both likes to foul and has trouble getting to the line themselves.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tonight’s forecast calls for ugly shooting percentages and flurries of turnovers with dangerous accumulation for Tennessee. The best opportunity for the Vols appears to be getting to the foul line as often as possible and hitting the freebies once there.

The goals for the Vols:

  1. If you’re not going to shoot well, don’t shoot often.
  2. Try to limit turnovers, but don’t get frustrated when they happen. They do that to everybody, but they’ll also allow you to return the favor.
  3. Drive into the paint, draw the foul, and hit the free throws.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 37% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 62, Tennessee 59. The line is Missouri -4.

My prediction: Missouri 64, Tennessee 57.

Go Vols.

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