Gameday on Rocky Top

No Josiah James for the second game in a row, Bama on fire from three, foul trouble taking Uros Plavisc out of the equation…you’d be forgiven for shutting this thing down as it neared halftime. Alabama took a 39-24 lead with 1:49 to play in the first half after Plavsic picked up his third foul on a dead ball technical, sending some frustration Alabama’s way via a shot to the ribcage.

It wasn’t the sort of moment that felt like a turning point for Tennessee, because things genuinely felt too far gone. The Vols were staring at 12-10 (4-5) with an uphill climb in front of them on the schedule, ineffective in so many ways since almost winning at Kansas.

But the Vols did the same thing in that last 1:49 that got them all the way back in the next 20 minutes. Jordan Bowden hit two free throws. John Fulkerson hit two more. The Vols forced a turnover. And Fulkerson hit a big shot.

Alabama’s lead was down to eight at halftime. The Vols cut it to four in the first minute of the second half, then Kira Lewis hit a three, and then we stayed there for a while at 43-36. Another three put the Tide back up 10 with 15 minutes to play.

The Vols scored 36 points in those first 25 minutes, then scored 33 in the last 15.

Jordan Bowden was again a huge difference maker in the second half. He scored five straight points to get the Vols back within five, then knocked in another one to bring it down to two with 10 minutes to play. Fulkerson hit two free throws to tie it, Kira Lewis splashed a three, then Fulkerson hit two more free throws. A minute later, the Vols got the lead on two Bowden free throws. Rinse, repeat.

Bama would push back in front, but the Vols would push back. Tied at 61-61 with under four to go, we got this beauty:

https://twitter.com/TreyWallace_/status/1224874587684573186

(Uros Plavsic is the MVP of bench celebrations on this night.)

Alabama fans will be quick to point out the foul differential – 14 against the Vols, 26 on the Tide which eventually disqualified their three best post players – but we’ll be quick to point out how bad the Vols had been at getting to the line in league play, and what a huge difference it can make.

Tennessee never trailed after Fulkerson’s slam, but Bama had a shot down two in the final seconds. Yves Pons said no:

Yves Pons with the huge block for Tennessee. pic.twitter.com/KpTIeEhhyt

— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) February 5, 2020

…and then made two free throws to put the Vols up four, making Bama’s buzzer three meaningless.

What a huge win, in joyous and unexpected fashion.

The Vols were 2-of-18 from three and survived Bama hitting 11 of them by way of 23-of-32 at the line. Alabama shot eight free throws. Offensive rebounds, the bane of Tennessee’s existence last week? Nine for the Tide, 19 (!!!) for the Vols. Kentucky will present a much bigger challenge, literally and figuratively, in this department, but kudos to the Vols for completely turning this aspect around.

And while the Vols still had 13 turnovers of their own, Alabama gave it away 20 times. All of Tennessee’s weaknesses saw vast improvement tonight, and it was enough for a big Quad I win on the road.

Fulkerson finishes with 22 points on 8-of-9 shooting, including 6-of-6 in the first half. He and Pons each had three blocks. Bowden struggled at 5-of-17 but still finished with 20 points because he got to the line 11 times. The Vols still got very little scoring from their bench – two from Drew Pember- but got great hustle minutes and two steals from Davonte Gaines. Santiago Vescovi was 2-of-15 (!) from the floor but earned the J.P. Prince Stat Sheet of the Night: 8 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, and only 1 turnover.

It was easy to give up on this game and, in some ways, this team late in the first half. And yet, they found a way by minimizing their weaknesses and maximizing the free throw line. It’s fun to watch guys like Fulkerson get better and then know they’ll also be around next year to play with all the new toys. But tonight’s win also keeps the Vols in the hunt this season. And Big Blue Nation is up next.

Go Vols.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tonight against the Alabama Crimson Tide. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

The official NCAA stats system has the vapors this morning, so the defensive shooting numbers are missing. But this part of the picture looks like we’ll be screaming REBOUND all night again.

Summary and Score Prediction

Expect more shooting woes for the Vols tonight, but as always, Tennessee’s stifling defense could keep the team in the game. It will need to, because it appears that we’re looking at another game of huge disparity on the free throw line, as the Vols can’t get there and Alabama can. Meanwhile, turnovers and rebounds look about even, so winning those battles could go a long way toward putting this one in the win column.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Make the most of the advantage on defense. If you can find your own shot to boot, awesome.
2. They’re going to get to the line, but don’t let them live there.
3. Win the turnover and rebounding margins by as much as possible.

KenPom gives Tennessee only a 30% chance of winning and puts the score at Alabama 76, Tennessee 70.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Florida State and UNC Asheville and much better than the Vols.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Murray State and Georgia. And basically Tennessee, too.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Missouri and Jacksonville State, and not a whole lot better than the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Mississippi State and Kansas (oof), and much better than the good guys.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

A Vols team still struggling to find its shooting touch will probably have trouble finding it tonight. But once again, Tennessee’s shooting defense could keep the Vols in the game.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Lots of ick here. Alabama’s not especially good at forcing turnovers, so perhaps the Vols can make up some ground and protect the ball tonight. On the other side, Tennessee should get a healthy portion of freebies.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This looks pretty even, which means winning it will be important.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Ugh. We can’t get to the free-throw line. They can. We’ll let them.

Go Vols.

SEC play hits the halfway point this week, with LSU a stubborn 8-0 to lead the way. This is where I’d like to joke about their strength of schedule – currently 13th in league play and only one match-up against both Auburn and Kentucky the whole year – but guess who’s 14th?

That will change in a hurry for Tennessee, who catches both Auburn and Kentucky twice in the last ten games as well as four other Quad 1 opportunities. The Vols’ 4-4 start to league play and current three-game skid looks even more challenging in the light of what’s to come. But in conference play, Tennessee’s hodgepodge lineup is actually doing a handful of important things really well. They’re just also doing a handful of important things worse than anyone else in the league.

Mississippi State’s second half dominance knocked the Vols from atop the SEC defensive perch, but Tennessee is still second in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings behind South Carolina. The Vols are first in the SEC in effective field goal percentage allowed and first in defending inside the arc, thanks in large part to being first in shot-blocking. And teams are shooting just 28.2% against the Vols from the arc in league play, fifth-best in the SEC.

It’s all the makings of a really good defense, except for one thing: the Vols are dead last in offensive rebounding percentage allowed. And it’s not close: in SEC play, the Vols surrender the rebound on 36.1% of opponent misses. Coincidentally, Texas A&M is 13th at 33%.

The Vols allowed the rebound on 57.5% of A&M’s misses, thankfully by far the worst number of the season. But the Vols haven’t been good at keeping opponents off the glass in league play: Missouri got 28.2% of their rebounds, and every other opponent was over 30%.

Tennessee’s defense has been really good in every other facet, but has become so bad at allowing second chances that it’s negating much of their good work. On the other end of the floor in league play, the Vols are third in effective field goal percentage, third in shooting percentage inside the arc, fourth in three-point shooting (33%), and fourth at the free throw line (77.4%). Those are really solid splits, and when combined with a really good defense, Tennessee should be winning fairly often.

But here’s the problem: shooting 77.4% at the line matters less when you can’t get there. Tennessee is last in the SEC in free throw rate, getting to the line on just 30.4% of their field goal attempts. Ole Miss is 13th at 33.3%. And the Vols are last in the SEC in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on 20.9% of their possessions (Georgia is right behind at 20.7%).

When the Vols don’t turn it over, they shoot it well (still almost exclusively a byproduct of good ball movement, as Tennessee is third nationally in assist rate). But they don’t help themselves by getting to the line, and giving the ball away one out of five times down the floor tends to prevent any real runs from developing.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s first shot defense is really good, especially inside the arc. But they keep giving teams second shots, which tends to break everything down.

Maybe all of this gets filed away for next year if this team continues to struggle this way. But it’s strange to see Tennessee be so good at some of the core components of good basketball, but struggle so much at some of the others.

If you just read the score, you might think, “Okay, tough loss on the road against a hot team, their strengths are our weaknesses, offensive rebounds, etc.” In reality, we saw a really good half of basketball from Tennessee in light of all those things. And then we saw an exceptional half of basketball from Mississippi State.

The Vols led 34-28 at the break despite no points from Jordan Bowden and Josiah James out with a groin injury. Put a pin in that; maybe we underrated his value on the defensive end. Against the Bulldogs the Vols went big in James’ absence: Uros Plavisc got his first start, and Tennessee didn’t shy away. The big fella had 16 points on 6-of-12 shooting and zero turnovers, a definite positive from today’s outing. Mississippi State’s Abdul Ado was saddled with foul trouble early, limiting their effectiveness. And the Vols came out hot from three.

Ado still only finished with six points and six rebounds. But having him on the floor alongside 6’10” Reggie Perry helped Mississippi State absolutely carve up what had been an excellent Tennessee defense in the second half. Perry finished with 24 points and 12 rebounds. But he was far from alone. Mississippi State scored in transition, broke hearts at the end of the shot clock, and repeatedly used great ball movement to get easy looks at the rim.

How easy: in the second half, the Bulldogs shot 18-of-26 from the floor. On the day they went 25-of-30 at the free throw line. They scored 58 points in the last 20 minutes.

Mississippi State had a Top 20 offense coming in, the best the Vols have faced outside LSU and Kansas. Their efficiency in the second half was relentless; it’s hard to identify a run or a big shot when they just all go in. Of their eight second half misses, ESPN’s play-by-play credits them with the rebound on six. And they only turned it over eight times the whole game. Will Warren cites it as Tennessee’s worst performance in defensive efficiency since 2004.

What percentage of blame do we assign where? Josiah’s absence? Plavsic adjusting to a much bigger role and the Vols sacrificing defense for offense? Tennessee’s defense relying heavily on shot blocking against a team where it wasn’t really available? Mississippi State’s excellence?

We’ll need more data on some of that, first and foremost how often the Vols will play Plavsic. Tennessee’s defense that rated 29th coming in now rates 48th coming out. The next test – at Alabama on Tuesday – won’t feature the same size or offensive efficiency, but the Tide do run at the third-fastest tempo in college basketball. Tennessee, as you know, does not. After that is Kentucky, which will present a similar challenge with Nick Richards and E.J. Montgomery in the post.

The real answers from what happened in the second half here – other than Mississippi State being awesome – are in front of us. The Vols just have fewer opportunities to find their own answers.

Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Well. Right out of the gate, this looks like an uphill battle.

Summary and Score Prediction

All buzzers, beepers, and sirens are screaming and blinking red as a Tennessee team having problems keeping even mediocre opponents off the offensive boards are set to take on a Mississippi State Bulldogs team that ranks second in the nation at getting them.

The Vols could manage, though, as their shooting defense is still extremely effective and should always keep them in games. But they also desperately need to find their own shooting touch consistently.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Box out. Rebound. Keep the Bulldogs off the offensive glass. They’re going to get some — it’s what they do — but don’t let it turn into a feast.
2. Balance, again. Go ahead and divert some resources to boxing out, but keep your defensive edge at the same time.
3. Find your shooting touch. It comes via inside touches.

KenPom gives Tennessee a measly 29% chance of winning and puts the score at Mississippi State 67, Tennessee 61.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Most like Washington and Memphis, and quite a bit better than Tennessee. Nice.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Basically the same as Tennessee. At least there’s that.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Oh, good. After a bad loss due to an inability to keep the other team off the offensive boards, we now get to play the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country. Woo.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Mississippi, and better than Tennessee. Sigh.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.8 (No. 199), and Mississippi State’s defensive eFG% is 47.3 (No. 95).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ eFG% is 51.2 (No. 93), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.9 (No. 7).

Conclusions

The Vols really need to find their shooting touch and make it happen consistently. The Bulldogs shoot well, but Tennessee’s shooting defense is still really good at frustrating opponents.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

The Vols turnover % is 20.9 (No. 284), and the Bulldogs’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.6 (No. 201).

When Mississippi State has the ball

Mississippi State’s turnover % is 21.1 (No. 298) and will be going up against Tennessee’s defensive rating of 19.8 (No. 129).

Conclusions

Neither team is very good at causing turnovers, but both teams are perfectly willing to just give the ball to the other team. It’s like Christmas!

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 28.9 (No. 153), and Mississippi State’s defense in that category is 29.1 (No. 222).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ OR% is 40 (No. 2), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 29 (No. 218).

Conclusions

Gulp. This is a bona fide emergency. Tennessee’s bad at keeping opponents from getting offensive rebounds, and that just happens to be the Bulldogs’ specialty.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 129), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 29.5 (No. 127).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ FT Rate is 36.9 (No. 69), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 30.8 (No. 157).

Conclusions

Advantage Bulldogs.

Go Vols.

Six years ago tomorrow, Tennessee went to Alabama and put a beat down on the Tide 76-59. The win moved Cuonzo Martin’s squad to 14-7 (5-3), in position to capitalize on its last ten games and make the tournament with room to spare. In response, they lost four of their next six, a stretch that ended with an overtime loss at Texas A&M (KenPom 138 at tip-off). The Vols were 16-11 (7-7) with no opportunities left for marquee victories.

The lesson from that year is hopefully easier learned when we’re not dealing with petitions at the same time: don’t quit on your team until the math says they can’t earn an at-large bid. Those Vols won four in a row, the last three by an average of 31 points, then beat South Carolina by 15 in the second round of the SEC Tournament, then flirted with victory against 31-2 Florida on Saturday. That was all just enough to get them to Dayton. And as that team will also remind you, all you’ve gotta do is get in: four games later they were a disputed charge call from the Elite Eight.

So yeah, the current Tennessee team did themselves zero favors in losing to another Texas A&M team with a triple digit KenPom on another lucky three. What would’ve been a tidy resume on a soft bubble now has Tennessee’s first bad loss of the year. And as much as anything, it’s one more win the Vols won’t have for a team looking to get in on strength of schedule and late-season improvement, not a big win total.

What follows is (hopefully!) the beginning of an exercise we do around here whenever the Vols are on the bubble: how does the bracket’s past inform its present, and how likely are the Vols to hit those historical benchmarks for a team that gets in? The NCAA’s change from RPI to NET means we say goodbye to lots of research, since we haven’t had to worry about the bubble the last couple years.

Here’s the good news: if Tennessee is going to get to 19+ wins, they’re going to have to beat good teams along the way. If they’re going to beat good teams, it’s because they’re getting better. If they’re close, it’s because they got quality wins to get there. That argument really does feel like the only way in for this team. And, thanks to roster shakeup, it goes a little farther than the average bear: Tennessee has still only played five games with both Santiago Vescovi and Uros Plavsic.

So the same rules apply, as always: get better, get wins. The margin of error has simply shrunk to create incredibly meaningful outcomes every time out now. They’re not all must-win – an 11-0 finish probably means an SEC title! – but the Vols have eleven opportunities left to get as close to 20 wins as possible, facing a schedule that makes almost nothing easy.

So here, for as long as we can enjoy it, is what I think it’ll take to get the Vols on the bubble.

The Bottom Line: 19-15

Since the tournament expanded to 68 in 2011, eight teams earned an at-large bid with 14 losses on Selection Sunday. Plus, in each of the last three years, an SEC team has danced with 15 losses. In 2011 Marquette danced at 20-14. Each of the other ten teams to get in with 14 or 15 losses all won 19 games. (Fun fact: only one went to Dayton!)

Year	Team	Record	Seed
2019	Florida	19-15	10
2019	Ohio State	19-14	11
2018	Texas	19-14	10
2018	Alabama	19-15	9
2017	Vanderbilt	19-15	9
2017	Michigan State	19-14	9
2011	Marquette	20-14	11
2011	Michigan State	19-14	10
2011	Southern Cal	19-14	Dayton
2011	Tennessee	19-14	9
2011	Penn State	19-14	10

If you’re looking for the kind of soft bubble year that could materialize this season, 2011 is a good example. A common thread here: these are all power conference teams, and with the exception of Penn State and Southern Cal in 2011, they all carry good-to-great name brands.

(Also, Oklahoma State got in at 18-13 in 2015, but that record isn’t available to Tennessee; the closest the Vols could come would be an 18-13 regular season finish plus whatever happened in the SEC Tournament.)

So any conversation about Tennessee getting in has to land, historically speaking, with the Vols finishing at 19-15 or better.

In KenPom, 10 of those 11 teams had a Top 25 strength of schedule; the 11th was 2011 USC, who went to Dayton with a schedule rating of 36. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is currently 65th, but as we’ll see, that’s getting ready to rise. How high? Well…

It goes without saying you want the non-conference teams the Vols played to all do well (yes, even Memphis). Therein lie some potential problems: Washington was 10-2 but now sits at 12-10 (2-7); four of their last five losses came in overtime, overtime, by one, and by three. VCU gets another shot at Dayton in Richmond on February 18.

At the moment, those are both Quad 1 wins for Tennessee. They both came with Lamonte Turner, but that’s really only an argument you make if the Vols come up short on Quad 1 wins in general, and if they do that, they’re not going to be anywhere near the bubble anyway.

Here Comes Quad 1

Quad 1 in the NET ratings is a home win over a Top 30 team, a neutral win over a Top 50 team, and a road win over a Top 75 team. VCU is currently 33rd in NET; Kansas and Florida State are safe barring total collapse. Washington is currently 48th; it would help if they stayed in the Top 50.

But if you want opportunity, behold:

Opponent	Current NET	Quad
at Mississippi St	43	1
at Alabama	40	1
Kentucky	23	1
Arkansas	38	2
at South Carolina	75	1
Vanderbilt	165	4
at Auburn	27	1
at Arkansas	38	1
Florida	42	2
at Kentucky	23	1
Auburn	27	1

Again: if the Vols even approach the bubble, they’ll have done so with quality wins.

Paths to the Bubble

If 19-15 is a proven minimum, the Vols can get at least there a number of ways. Let’s do something A&M proved clearly unsafe, and assume the Vols beat Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. That would be a second Quad 3/4 loss (Texas A&M is currently 126th in NET and needs to stay above 160 the rest of the way to prevent the Vols from having a Quad 4 loss). Vanderbilt can be feisty, but is still 0-7 in league play. A loss to the Commodores in Knoxville would be catastrophic.

So, let’s give ourselves that one. That’s 13 wins with 10 other games on the table. The pain of losing to A&M is felt most here: win that one, and you’ve got a really nice argument to just go 5-5 in these last ten games, and you’re 19-12 (11-7) and sitting pretty headed to the SEC Tournament.

Now, if you give the Vols Vanderbilt, you’ve got the following scenarios to get to at least 19-15:

• 17-14 (9-9): Vols go 4-6 in those 10 games, need at least two wins in the SEC Tournament (this is Tennessee’s current projection in KenPom)
• 18-13 (10-8): Vols go 5-5 in those 10 games, need at least one win in the SEC Tournament
• 19-12 (11-7): Vols go 6-4 in those 10 games

If Tennessee finishes at least .500 in SEC play, we can at least talk ourselves into something at the SEC Tournament. If you want to feel safe, the Vols need to beat Vanderbilt and win more than they lose against everyone else.

KenPom currently gives the Vols 3.99 wins in those other 10 games. So clearly, we’re talking about Tennessee exceeding expectations. One point here too: when the resume looks like this, there’s very little room between the bubble and missing the NIT. If the Vols are 17-14 we’ll go to Nashville hoping for a couple of wins, but a first round loss might also leave them out of any postseason play at 17-15. This happened to Rick Barnes’ second team, who was 14-10 (6-5) on February 8 but lost five of their last seven, then fell to Georgia in the first round of the SEC Tournament, and stayed home at 16-16.

If there’s any good news here, it’s again the belief that this team has a better chance to get better than most because it’s still getting all of its pieces lined up. The Vols need to beat Vanderbilt. And they need to win as many games as possible the rest of the way. It’s simple, but not easy.

That starts tomorrow in Starkville against a Mississippi State team that’s won four of its last five and is also eyeing the tournament. 2:00 PM ET, ESPNU. Get better, get wins, get dancing.

Go Vols.

In our four-factors preview of the Tennessee-Texas A&M game yesterday, this was the to-do list we came up with:

Balance. The Vols’ shooting defense is so good and A&M’s shooting offense is so bad that the Vols could probably play safe enough to minimize A&M’s trips to the charity stripe and still pretty much shut them down from the field. Find the right balance.

Turnovers and rebounds seem to be fairly even, so win those battles.

Don’t forget that the magic phrase is “inside-out.”

The Aggies were, in fact, terrible shooting the ball, even when they were right at the rim. By the end of it all, Tennessee had held them to 30.4% from the field and 26.9% from three. The Vols weren’t much better from three, but they were quite a bit better from the field, hitting 46.7% of their shots.

One of the chief problems last night, though, was that the Vols never really found a good balance of defense and fouling. A&M shot 29 free throws to Tennessee’s 15, and the Aggies hit nearly 76% of them for 22 points. Tennessee had only 10 points at the free-throw line.

The Vols also gave up a huge number of offensive rebounds and second-chance shots. While the Vols had only 4 offensive boards, the Aggies had an astounding 23.

Turnovers and defensive rebounds were basically a wash, but those offensive rebounds and extra trips to the free-throw line ended up costing the Vols. Perhaps they could have eased up defensively, boxed out a little more, and let the Aggies shoot themselves into a loss.

But that’s not how it played out, as the Vols lost to the Aggies 63-58 at home. It’s a disappointing outcome on the heels of the positivity emanating from keeping it close on the home court of the No. 3 team in the country just three days prior.

We should expect some ups and downs from a team with so many young players playing so many key roles, so I wouldn’t count these guys out just yet. But they did just dig the hole a little deeper Tuesday night.

Previously on GRT Four Factors: These were the goals we identified for the Vols heading into the Kansas game:

1. If you shoot poorly, make them shoot worse. Possess this ability, you do.
2. Turn turnovers into easy points. If somebody gives you cake, you eat it, right? Eat the cake.
3. If able, steal their cloaking devices. If you manage this, the Big 12 will award you an honorary doctorate from every school in the conference. Except probably Kansas.

How’d they do?

1. The Vols shot 45.5% from the field and 40% from the arc, and they held Kansas to 46.3% from the field and 23.5% from three. That’s pretty good, and it’s what kept them close.
2. There wasn’t a lot of opportunity for fast break points created by turnovers because Kansas only turned the ball over 6 times. This didn’t work.
3. Nope. There were 23 fouls called on Tennessee and only 16 called on Kansas. Free throw attempts were 33 for the Jayhawks to 16 for the good guys. This didn’t work, either.

Still, Tennessee kept it interesting right until the end and only lost 74-68. It was a good game plan, and it was executed pretty well, but in the end Azubuike was just too good.

Let’s have a look at what might happen tonight against the Aggies.

Baseline

First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.

Hmm. The Aggies don’t shoot very well.

Summary and Score Prediction

This game pits one huge advantage against another: Tennessee’s shooting defense should smother a bad-shooting A&M team into a terrible shooting percentage, but the Aggies should have a huge advantage at keeping the Vols off the free throw line while getting there a lot themselves.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Balance. The Vols’ shooting defense is so good and A&M’s shooting offense is so bad that the Vols could probably play safe enough to minimize A&M’s trips to the charity stripe and still pretty much shut them down from the field. Find the right balance.
2. Turnovers and rebounds seem to be fairly even, so win those battles.
3. Don’t forget that the magic phrase is “inside-out.”

KenPom gives Tennessee an 87% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Texas A&M 52. That makes me nod.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Tennessee’s been shooting better, but still has a pretty deep hole to climb out of, but the good news is that Texas A&M is a really bad shooting team.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Neither team writing home about this one.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Eh, basically even here.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Ooh. Goodness. These guys live at the line. Good to know.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.6 (No. 209), and A&M’s defensive eFG% is 46.9 (No. 84). This is where I would usually say that Tennessee’s shooting woes aren’t getting better tonight, but they have actually been shooting better, so what do I know?

When Texas A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ eFG% is 45.3 (No. 327), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 43.2 (No. 8). Could be a long night for the Aggies.

Conclusions

A&M has a pretty good shooting defense, but the Vols seem to have found their touch lately. On the other end, there is a monstrous disparity with a terrible shooting team going up against an elite shooting defense in the Vols. This could be fun. For us.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

The Vols turnover % is still terrible at 20.9 (No. 280), and the Aggies’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 21.6 (No. 59). Smh.

When A&M has the ball

A&M’s turnover % is identical to that of Tennessee’s at 20.9 (No. 281) and ranks lower only by a third-letter tiebreaker. It will be going up against a defensive rating of 19.6 (No. 141).

Conclusions

Rather than fighting this, I’m just going to think differently about it for the sake of my sanity. Turnovers are fun!

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 29.4 (No. 120), and A&M’s defense in that category is 31.5 (No. 300).

When A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ OR% is 29 (No. 138), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27.4 (No. 145).

Conclusions

Maybe a slight advantage for the Vols on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 130), while Texas A&M’s defense against that is 25.3 (No. 33).

When A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ FT Rate is 39.9 (No. 27), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 29.7 (No. 130).

Conclusions

A&M looks to have a huge advantage in free throw attempts.

Go Vols.

It’s happened a couple of times to the Vols in football: best-of-the-best talent on the other team gets held in relative check until the very end, but the end is all they need. Jadeveon Clowney did it against us. Rocket Ismail did too, if you go back that far.

Today the Vols executed the gameplan they wanted against short-handed Kansas: get Udoka Azubuike in foul trouble and take advantage when he’s off the floor. In the first half his second foul immediately led to an 18-8 Vol spurt. His return led to an 18-4 Kansas run. The Vols kept fighting, cutting the lead to three with two minutes to play. From there:

• Azubuike gets a fairly generous call on John Fulkerson while setting a screen, hits one of two free throws, Kansas by four
• Azubuike reads and intercepts an alley-oop attempt from Jordan Bowden to John Fulkerson
• Devon Dotson is fouled by Santiago Vescovi, makes one of two free throws, Kansas by five with 55 seconds to go
• Azubuike blocks John Fulkerson’s shot out of bounds
• Azubuike blocks Yves Pons’ shot and recovers it
• Kansas hits free throws, wins by six

After playing 31-35 minutes the last four games, the Vols kept Azubuike to 27 today with foul trouble. In those 27 minutes he still had 18 points on 6-of-7 shooting and a better-than-average 6-of-11 at the free throw line. He added 11 rebounds and four blocks, none bigger than the plays he created at the end of the game.

Tennessee let its best players take almost all the shots: Jalen Johnson got a good look at a three late that didn’t go down, which was the only shot by a bench player on the day. John Fulkerson was a focal point again, 15 points on 7-of-12 shooting plus 12 rebounds. Jordan Bowden sat out with foul trouble in the first half, then came alive with 19 points, all in the second half, including three threes and lots of confidence going to the rim.

Maybe the moment got a little big for Josiah James, who went 0-for-6 with six turnovers. But the moment was never better for Yves Pons: a career-high 24 points on just 14 shots plus 6-of-7 at the line, to go with seven rebounds and three blocks. Pons was sensational today especially given what Tennessee was asking him to do on the defensive end, spending time dealing with both Azubuike and Dotson.

Unlike maddening losses to North Carolina in 2017 (3-of-13 from the arc) and 2018 (self-inflicted turnovers at the bitter end), this result as an underdog against an elite program makes more sense. The Vols were good today, almost good enough. Azubuike was better.

But today’s good can be plenty good enough to get the Vols where they want to go this season.

Jordan Bowden: Coach told us in the locker room that we can play with anybody in the country. No. 3 team in the country, we were right there.

— @GrantRamey (@GrantRamey) January 25, 2020

This is true, and this Kansas team was a particularly nasty match-up for this Tennessee team. The Vols defend well enough to give themselves a chance, are getting smart, difference-making basketball from John Fulkerson on a regular basis, and got the best we’ve ever seen from Yves Pons today in non-fluke fashion.

The only way this loss really hurts is if Tennessee doesn’t take care of enough of its own business the next seven weeks. KenPom projects the Vols to finish 18-13 (10-8), which is playing .500 ball in SEC play the rest of the way. That would get the Vols in the conversation. The team we saw today can do more than that.

The schedule breaks into two parts, with a pair of well-timed intermissions. The Vols will come back from Kansas to face Texas A&M in Knoxville on Tuesday; the Aggies are 166th in KenPom. Then it’s the warm-up:

• at Mississippi State, at Alabama, vs Kentucky, vs Arkansas, at South Carolina

There’s a chance to get Quad I wins in three or four of those games, with the toughest tests at home. Then the Vols get Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. Then it’s the finale:

• at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn

That finish might go five-for-five in Quad I.

The goal, as always: get better. Be playing your best basketball in March, and give yourself the best possible opportunity in the bracket along the way. The loss today won’t help the resume on paper, but it was definitely among Tennessee’s best basketball so far. Can this team, still learning how all its pieces fit together, keep getting better as the schedule does? We saw today it can have a chance against anyone. It just needs to get on the dance floor to prove it. Every win counts.