SEC play hits the halfway point this week, with LSU a stubborn 8-0 to lead the way. This is where I’d like to joke about their strength of schedule – currently 13th in league play and only one match-up against both Auburn and Kentucky the whole year – but guess who’s 14th?
That will change in a hurry for Tennessee, who catches both Auburn and Kentucky twice in the last ten games as well as four other Quad 1 opportunities. The Vols’ 4-4 start to league play and current three-game skid looks even more challenging in the light of what’s to come. But in conference play, Tennessee’s hodgepodge lineup is actually doing a handful of important things really well. They’re just also doing a handful of important things worse than anyone else in the league.
Mississippi State’s second half dominance knocked the Vols from atop the SEC defensive perch, but Tennessee is still second in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings behind South Carolina. The Vols are first in the SEC in effective field goal percentage allowed and first in defending inside the arc, thanks in large part to being first in shot-blocking. And teams are shooting just 28.2% against the Vols from the arc in league play, fifth-best in the SEC.
It’s all the makings of a really good defense, except for one thing: the Vols are dead last in offensive rebounding percentage allowed. And it’s not close: in SEC play, the Vols surrender the rebound on 36.1% of opponent misses. Coincidentally, Texas A&M is 13th at 33%.
The Vols allowed the rebound on 57.5% of A&M’s misses, thankfully by far the worst number of the season. But the Vols haven’t been good at keeping opponents off the glass in league play: Missouri got 28.2% of their rebounds, and every other opponent was over 30%.
Tennessee’s defense has been really good in every other facet, but has become so bad at allowing second chances that it’s negating much of their good work. On the other end of the floor in league play, the Vols are third in effective field goal percentage, third in shooting percentage inside the arc, fourth in three-point shooting (33%), and fourth at the free throw line (77.4%). Those are really solid splits, and when combined with a really good defense, Tennessee should be winning fairly often.
But here’s the problem: shooting 77.4% at the line matters less when you can’t get there. Tennessee is last in the SEC in free throw rate, getting to the line on just 30.4% of their field goal attempts. Ole Miss is 13th at 33.3%. And the Vols are last in the SEC in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on 20.9% of their possessions (Georgia is right behind at 20.7%).
When the Vols don’t turn it over, they shoot it well (still almost exclusively a byproduct of good ball movement, as Tennessee is third nationally in assist rate). But they don’t help themselves by getting to the line, and giving the ball away one out of five times down the floor tends to prevent any real runs from developing.
Meanwhile, Tennessee’s first shot defense is really good, especially inside the arc. But they keep giving teams second shots, which tends to break everything down.
Maybe all of this gets filed away for next year if this team continues to struggle this way. But it’s strange to see Tennessee be so good at some of the core components of good basketball, but struggle so much at some of the others.
If you just read the score, you might think, “Okay, tough loss on the road against a hot team, their strengths are our weaknesses, offensive rebounds, etc.” In reality, we saw a really good half of basketball from Tennessee in light of all those things. And then we saw an exceptional half of basketball from Mississippi State.
The Vols led 34-28 at the break despite no points from Jordan Bowden and Josiah James out with a groin injury. Put a pin in that; maybe we underrated his value on the defensive end. Against the Bulldogs the Vols went big in James’ absence: Uros Plavisc got his first start, and Tennessee didn’t shy away. The big fella had 16 points on 6-of-12 shooting and zero turnovers, a definite positive from today’s outing. Mississippi State’s Abdul Ado was saddled with foul trouble early, limiting their effectiveness. And the Vols came out hot from three.
Ado still only finished with six points and six rebounds. But having him on the floor alongside 6’10” Reggie Perry helped Mississippi State absolutely carve up what had been an excellent Tennessee defense in the second half. Perry finished with 24 points and 12 rebounds. But he was far from alone. Mississippi State scored in transition, broke hearts at the end of the shot clock, and repeatedly used great ball movement to get easy looks at the rim.
How easy: in the second half, the Bulldogs shot 18-of-26 from the floor. On the day they went 25-of-30 at the free throw line. They scored 58 points in the last 20 minutes.
Mississippi State had a Top 20 offense coming in, the best the Vols have faced outside LSU and Kansas. Their efficiency in the second half was relentless; it’s hard to identify a run or a big shot when they just all go in. Of their eight second half misses, ESPN’s play-by-play credits them with the rebound on six. And they only turned it over eight times the whole game. Will Warren cites it as Tennessee’s worst performance in defensive efficiency since 2004.
What percentage of blame do we assign where? Josiah’s absence? Plavsic adjusting to a much bigger role and the Vols sacrificing defense for offense? Tennessee’s defense relying heavily on shot blocking against a team where it wasn’t really available? Mississippi State’s excellence?
We’ll need more data on some of that, first and foremost how often the Vols will play Plavsic. Tennessee’s defense that rated 29th coming in now rates 48th coming out. The next test – at Alabama on Tuesday – won’t feature the same size or offensive efficiency, but the Tide do run at the third-fastest tempo in college basketball. Tennessee, as you know, does not. After that is Kentucky, which will present a similar challenge with Nick Richards and E.J. Montgomery in the post.
Here’s a look at the four factors numbers for Tennessee’s game tomorrow against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The conclusions are upfront, just after each team’s baseline, and the details follow:
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
FG%
3FG%
TOs/G
OR/G
DR/G
FTA/G
Tennessee
43.2
30.7
14
9.55
26.30
18.25
Mississippi St.
46.2
33.8
14.1
13.25
25.45
20.75
Well. Right out of the gate, this looks like an uphill battle.
Summary and Score Prediction
All buzzers, beepers, and sirens are screaming and blinking red as a Tennessee team having problems keeping even mediocre opponents off the offensive boards are set to take on a Mississippi State Bulldogs team that ranks second in the nation at getting them.
The Vols could manage, though, as their shooting defense is still extremely effective and should always keep them in games. But they also desperately need to find their own shooting touch consistently.
The goals for the Vols:
Box out. Rebound. Keep the Bulldogs off the offensive glass. They’re going to get some — it’s what they do — but don’t let it turn into a feast.
Balance, again. Go ahead and divert some resources to boxing out, but keep your defensive edge at the same time.
Find your shooting touch. It comes via inside touches.
KenPom gives Tennessee a measly 29% chance of winning and puts the score at Mississippi State 67, Tennessee 61.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Team
eFG%
Rank
Washington
51.4
86
Mississippi St.
51.2
93
Memphis
50.9
104
Tennessee
48.8
199
Conclusion: Most like Washington and Memphis, and quite a bit better than Tennessee. Nice.
Turnover %
Team
TO%
Rank
Tennessee
20.9
284
Jacksonville St.
21
293
Mississippi St.
21.1
298
Missouri
21.2
299
Conclusion: Basically the same as Tennessee. At least there’s that.
Conclusion: Most like Cincinnati and Mississippi, and better than Tennessee. Sigh.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.8 (No. 199), and Mississippi State’s defensive eFG% is 47.3 (No. 95).
When Mississippi State has the ball
The Bulldogs’ eFG% is 51.2 (No. 93), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 42.9 (No. 7).
Conclusions
The Vols really need to find their shooting touch and make it happen consistently. The Bulldogs shoot well, but Tennessee’s shooting defense is still really good at frustrating opponents.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
The Vols turnover % is 20.9 (No. 284), and the Bulldogs’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 18.6 (No. 201).
When Mississippi State has the ball
Mississippi State’s turnover % is 21.1 (No. 298) and will be going up against Tennessee’s defensive rating of 19.8 (No. 129).
Conclusions
Neither team is very good at causing turnovers, but both teams are perfectly willing to just give the ball to the other team. It’s like Christmas!
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 28.9 (No. 153), and Mississippi State’s defense in that category is 29.1 (No. 222).
When Mississippi State has the ball
The Bulldogs’ OR% is 40 (No. 2), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 29 (No. 218).
Conclusions
Gulp. This is a bona fide emergency. Tennessee’s bad at keeping opponents from getting offensive rebounds, and that just happens to be the Bulldogs’ specialty.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 129), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 29.5 (No. 127).
When Mississippi State has the ball
The Bulldogs’ FT Rate is 36.9 (No. 69), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 30.8 (No. 157).
Six years ago tomorrow, Tennessee went to Alabama and put a beat down on the Tide 76-59. The win moved Cuonzo Martin’s squad to 14-7 (5-3), in position to capitalize on its last ten games and make the tournament with room to spare. In response, they lost four of their next six, a stretch that ended with an overtime loss at Texas A&M (KenPom 138 at tip-off). The Vols were 16-11 (7-7) with no opportunities left for marquee victories.
The lesson from that year is hopefully easier learned when we’re not dealing with petitions at the same time: don’t quit on your team until the math says they can’t earn an at-large bid. Those Vols won four in a row, the last three by an average of 31 points, then beat South Carolina by 15 in the second round of the SEC Tournament, then flirted with victory against 31-2 Florida on Saturday. That was all just enough to get them to Dayton. And as that team will also remind you, all you’ve gotta do is get in: four games later they were a disputed charge call from the Elite Eight.
So yeah, the current Tennessee team did themselves zero favors in losing to another Texas A&M team with a triple digit KenPom on another lucky three. What would’ve been a tidy resume on a soft bubble now has Tennessee’s first bad loss of the year. And as much as anything, it’s one more win the Vols won’t have for a team looking to get in on strength of schedule and late-season improvement, not a big win total.
What follows is (hopefully!) the beginning of an exercise we do around here whenever the Vols are on the bubble: how does the bracket’s past inform its present, and how likely are the Vols to hit those historical benchmarks for a team that gets in? The NCAA’s change from RPI to NET means we say goodbye to lots of research, since we haven’t had to worry about the bubble the last couple years.
Here’s the good news: if Tennessee is going to get to 19+ wins, they’re going to have to beat good teams along the way. If they’re going to beat good teams, it’s because they’re getting better. If they’re close, it’s because they got quality wins to get there. That argument really does feel like the only way in for this team. And, thanks to roster shakeup, it goes a little farther than the average bear: Tennessee has still only played five games with both Santiago Vescovi and Uros Plavsic.
So the same rules apply, as always: get better, get wins. The margin of error has simply shrunk to create incredibly meaningful outcomes every time out now. They’re not all must-win – an 11-0 finish probably means an SEC title! – but the Vols have eleven opportunities left to get as close to 20 wins as possible, facing a schedule that makes almost nothing easy.
So here, for as long as we can enjoy it, is what I think it’ll take to get the Vols on the bubble.
The Bottom Line: 19-15
Since the tournament expanded to 68 in 2011, eight teams earned an at-large bid with 14 losses on Selection Sunday. Plus, in each of the last three years, an SEC team has danced with 15 losses. In 2011 Marquette danced at 20-14. Each of the other ten teams to get in with 14 or 15 losses all won 19 games. (Fun fact: only one went to Dayton!)
Year
Team
Record
Seed
2019
Florida
19-15
10
2019
Ohio State
19-14
11
2018
Texas
19-14
10
2018
Alabama
19-15
9
2017
Vanderbilt
19-15
9
2017
Michigan State
19-14
9
2011
Marquette
20-14
11
2011
Michigan State
19-14
10
2011
Southern Cal
19-14
Dayton
2011
Tennessee
19-14
9
2011
Penn State
19-14
10
If you’re looking for the kind of soft bubble year that could materialize this season, 2011 is a good example. A common thread here: these are all power conference teams, and with the exception of Penn State and Southern Cal in 2011, they all carry good-to-great name brands.
(Also, Oklahoma State got in at 18-13 in 2015, but that record isn’t available to Tennessee; the closest the Vols could come would be an 18-13 regular season finish plus whatever happened in the SEC Tournament.)
So any conversation about Tennessee getting in has to land, historically speaking, with the Vols finishing at 19-15 or better.
In KenPom, 10 of those 11 teams had a Top 25 strength of schedule; the 11th was 2011 USC, who went to Dayton with a schedule rating of 36. Tennessee’s strength of schedule is currently 65th, but as we’ll see, that’s getting ready to rise. How high? Well…
It goes without saying you want the non-conference teams the Vols played to all do well (yes, even Memphis). Therein lie some potential problems: Washington was 10-2 but now sits at 12-10 (2-7); four of their last five losses came in overtime, overtime, by one, and by three. VCU gets another shot at Dayton in Richmond on February 18.
At the moment, those are both Quad 1 wins for Tennessee. They both came with Lamonte Turner, but that’s really only an argument you make if the Vols come up short on Quad 1 wins in general, and if they do that, they’re not going to be anywhere near the bubble anyway.
Here Comes Quad 1
Quad 1 in the NET ratings is a home win over a Top 30 team, a neutral win over a Top 50 team, and a road win over a Top 75 team. VCU is currently 33rd in NET; Kansas and Florida State are safe barring total collapse. Washington is currently 48th; it would help if they stayed in the Top 50.
But if you want opportunity, behold:
Opponent
Current NET
Quad
at Mississippi St
43
1
at Alabama
40
1
Kentucky
23
1
Arkansas
38
2
at South Carolina
75
1
Vanderbilt
165
4
at Auburn
27
1
at Arkansas
38
1
Florida
42
2
at Kentucky
23
1
Auburn
27
1
Again: if the Vols even approach the bubble, they’ll have done so with quality wins.
Paths to the Bubble
If 19-15 is a proven minimum, the Vols can get at least there a number of ways. Let’s do something A&M proved clearly unsafe, and assume the Vols beat Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. That would be a second Quad 3/4 loss (Texas A&M is currently 126th in NET and needs to stay above 160 the rest of the way to prevent the Vols from having a Quad 4 loss). Vanderbilt can be feisty, but is still 0-7 in league play. A loss to the Commodores in Knoxville would be catastrophic.
So, let’s give ourselves that one. That’s 13 wins with 10 other games on the table. The pain of losing to A&M is felt most here: win that one, and you’ve got a really nice argument to just go 5-5 in these last ten games, and you’re 19-12 (11-7) and sitting pretty headed to the SEC Tournament.
Now, if you give the Vols Vanderbilt, you’ve got the following scenarios to get to at least 19-15:
17-14 (9-9): Vols go 4-6 in those 10 games, need at least two wins in the SEC Tournament (this is Tennessee’s current projection in KenPom)
18-13 (10-8): Vols go 5-5 in those 10 games, need at least one win in the SEC Tournament
19-12 (11-7): Vols go 6-4 in those 10 games
If Tennessee finishes at least .500 in SEC play, we can at least talk ourselves into something at the SEC Tournament. If you want to feel safe, the Vols need to beat Vanderbilt and win more than they lose against everyone else.
KenPom currently gives the Vols 3.99 wins in those other 10 games. So clearly, we’re talking about Tennessee exceeding expectations. One point here too: when the resume looks like this, there’s very little room between the bubble and missing the NIT. If the Vols are 17-14 we’ll go to Nashville hoping for a couple of wins, but a first round loss might also leave them out of any postseason play at 17-15. This happened to Rick Barnes’ second team, who was 14-10 (6-5) on February 8 but lost five of their last seven, then fell to Georgia in the first round of the SEC Tournament, and stayed home at 16-16.
If there’s any good news here, it’s again the belief that this team has a better chance to get better than most because it’s still getting all of its pieces lined up. The Vols need to beat Vanderbilt. And they need to win as many games as possible the rest of the way. It’s simple, but not easy.
That starts tomorrow in Starkville against a Mississippi State team that’s won four of its last five and is also eyeing the tournament. 2:00 PM ET, ESPNU. Get better, get wins, get dancing.
Balance. The Vols’ shooting defense is so good and A&M’s shooting offense is so bad that the Vols could probably play safe enough to minimize A&M’s trips to the charity stripe and still pretty much shut them down from the field. Find the right balance.
Turnovers and rebounds seem to be fairly even, so win those battles.
Don’t forget that the magic phrase is “inside-out.”
The Aggies were, in fact, terrible shooting the ball, even when they were right at the rim. By the end of it all, Tennessee had held them to 30.4% from the field and 26.9% from three. The Vols weren’t much better from three, but they were quite a bit better from the field, hitting 46.7% of their shots.
One of the chief problems last night, though, was that the Vols never really found a good balance of defense and fouling. A&M shot 29 free throws to Tennessee’s 15, and the Aggies hit nearly 76% of them for 22 points. Tennessee had only 10 points at the free-throw line.
The Vols also gave up a huge number of offensive rebounds and second-chance shots. While the Vols had only 4 offensive boards, the Aggies had an astounding 23.
Turnovers and defensive rebounds were basically a wash, but those offensive rebounds and extra trips to the free-throw line ended up costing the Vols. Perhaps they could have eased up defensively, boxed out a little more, and let the Aggies shoot themselves into a loss.
But that’s not how it played out, as the Vols lost to the Aggies 63-58 at home. It’s a disappointing outcome on the heels of the positivity emanating from keeping it close on the home court of the No. 3 team in the country just three days prior.
We should expect some ups and downs from a team with so many young players playing so many key roles, so I wouldn’t count these guys out just yet. But they did just dig the hole a little deeper Tuesday night.
If you shoot poorly, make them shoot worse. Possess this ability, you do.
Turn turnovers into easy points. If somebody gives you cake, you eat it, right? Eat the cake.
If able, steal their cloaking devices. If you manage this, the Big 12 will award you an honorary doctorate from every school in the conference. Except probably Kansas.
How’d they do?
The Vols shot 45.5% from the field and 40% from the arc, and they held Kansas to 46.3% from the field and 23.5% from three. That’s pretty good, and it’s what kept them close.
There wasn’t a lot of opportunity for fast break points created by turnovers because Kansas only turned the ball over 6 times. This didn’t work.
Nope. There were 23 fouls called on Tennessee and only 16 called on Kansas. Free throw attempts were 33 for the Jayhawks to 16 for the good guys. This didn’t work, either.
Still, Tennessee kept it interesting right until the end and only lost 74-68. It was a good game plan, and it was executed pretty well, but in the end Azubuike was just too good.
Let’s have a look at what might happen tonight against the Aggies.
Baseline
First up, here’s what each team is doing at this point in the season.
FG%
3FG%
TOs/G
OR/G
DR/G
FTA/G
Tennessee
43
30.9
14
9.84
26.79
18.42
Texas A&M
40.1
26.1
13.8
10
24.28
20.78
Hmm. The Aggies don’t shoot very well.
Summary and Score Prediction
This game pits one huge advantage against another: Tennessee’s shooting defense should smother a bad-shooting A&M team into a terrible shooting percentage, but the Aggies should have a huge advantage at keeping the Vols off the free throw line while getting there a lot themselves.
The goals for the Vols:
Balance. The Vols’ shooting defense is so good and A&M’s shooting offense is so bad that the Vols could probably play safe enough to minimize A&M’s trips to the charity stripe and still pretty much shut them down from the field. Find the right balance.
Turnovers and rebounds seem to be fairly even, so win those battles.
Don’t forget that the magic phrase is “inside-out.”
KenPom gives Tennessee an 87% chance of winning and puts the score at Tennessee 65, Texas A&M 52. That makes me nod.
Four Factors: Straight-Up
Effective FG%
Team
eFG%
Rank
Washington
51.4
86
Mississippi St.
51.2
93
Memphis
50.9
104
Tennessee
48.8
199
Conclusion: Tennessee’s been shooting better, but still has a pretty deep hole to climb out of, but the good news is that Texas A&M is a really bad shooting team.
Turnover %
Team
TO%
Rank
Tennessee
20.9
284
Jacksonville St.
21
293
Mississippi St.
21.1
298
Missouri
21.2
299
Conclusion: Neither team writing home about this one.
Offensive Rebound %
Team
OR%
Rank
Mississippi St.
40
2
LSU
37.2
6
Tennessee
28.9
153
Conclusion: Eh, basically even here.
Free Throw Rate
Team
FTRate
Rank
Cincinnati
37
68
Mississippi St.
36.9
69
Mississippi
36.5
74
Tennessee
34
129
Conclusion: Ooh. Goodness. These guys live at the line. Good to know.
Four Factors: Opponent impact
Effective FG%
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s eFG% is 48.6 (No. 209), and A&M’s defensive eFG% is 46.9 (No. 84). This is where I would usually say that Tennessee’s shooting woes aren’t getting better tonight, but they have actually been shooting better, so what do I know?
When Texas A&M has the ball
The Aggies’ eFG% is 45.3 (No. 327), and Tennessee’s shooting defense is 43.2 (No. 8). Could be a long night for the Aggies.
Conclusions
A&M has a pretty good shooting defense, but the Vols seem to have found their touch lately. On the other end, there is a monstrous disparity with a terrible shooting team going up against an elite shooting defense in the Vols. This could be fun. For us.
Turnover %
When Tennessee has the ball
The Vols turnover % is still terrible at 20.9 (No. 280), and the Aggies’ defensive counterpart to this stat is 21.6 (No. 59). Smh.
When A&M has the ball
A&M’s turnover % is identical to that of Tennessee’s at 20.9 (No. 281) and ranks lower only by a third-letter tiebreaker. It will be going up against a defensive rating of 19.6 (No. 141).
Conclusions
Rather than fighting this, I’m just going to think differently about it for the sake of my sanity. Turnovers are fun!
Offensive Rebounding %
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s OR% is 29.4 (No. 120), and A&M’s defense in that category is 31.5 (No. 300).
When A&M has the ball
The Aggies’ OR% is 29 (No. 138), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 27.4 (No. 145).
Conclusions
Maybe a slight advantage for the Vols on the offensive boards.
Free Throw Rate
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34 (No. 130), while Texas A&M’s defense against that is 25.3 (No. 33).
When A&M has the ball
The Aggies’ FT Rate is 39.9 (No. 27), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 29.7 (No. 130).
Conclusions
A&M looks to have a huge advantage in free throw attempts.
It’s happened a couple of times to the Vols in football: best-of-the-best talent on the other team gets held in relative check until the very end, but the end is all they need. Jadeveon Clowney did it against us. Rocket Ismail did too, if you go back that far.
Today the Vols executed the gameplan they wanted against short-handed Kansas: get Udoka Azubuike in foul trouble and take advantage when he’s off the floor. In the first half his second foul immediately led to an 18-8 Vol spurt. His return led to an 18-4 Kansas run. The Vols kept fighting, cutting the lead to three with two minutes to play. From there:
Azubuike gets a fairly generous call on John Fulkerson while setting a screen, hits one of two free throws, Kansas by four
Azubuike reads and intercepts an alley-oop attempt from Jordan Bowden to John Fulkerson
Devon Dotson is fouled by Santiago Vescovi, makes one of two free throws, Kansas by five with 55 seconds to go
Azubuike blocks John Fulkerson’s shot out of bounds
Azubuike blocks Yves Pons’ shot and recovers it
Kansas hits free throws, wins by six
After playing 31-35 minutes the last four games, the Vols kept Azubuike to 27 today with foul trouble. In those 27 minutes he still had 18 points on 6-of-7 shooting and a better-than-average 6-of-11 at the free throw line. He added 11 rebounds and four blocks, none bigger than the plays he created at the end of the game.
Tennessee let its best players take almost all the shots: Jalen Johnson got a good look at a three late that didn’t go down, which was the only shot by a bench player on the day. John Fulkerson was a focal point again, 15 points on 7-of-12 shooting plus 12 rebounds. Jordan Bowden sat out with foul trouble in the first half, then came alive with 19 points, all in the second half, including three threes and lots of confidence going to the rim.
Maybe the moment got a little big for Josiah James, who went 0-for-6 with six turnovers. But the moment was never better for Yves Pons: a career-high 24 points on just 14 shots plus 6-of-7 at the line, to go with seven rebounds and three blocks. Pons was sensational today especially given what Tennessee was asking him to do on the defensive end, spending time dealing with both Azubuike and Dotson.
Unlike maddening losses to North Carolina in 2017 (3-of-13 from the arc) and 2018 (self-inflicted turnovers at the bitter end), this result as an underdog against an elite program makes more sense. The Vols were good today, almost good enough. Azubuike was better.
But today’s good can be plenty good enough to get the Vols where they want to go this season.
Jordan Bowden: Coach told us in the locker room that we can play with anybody in the country. No. 3 team in the country, we were right there.
This is true, and this Kansas team was a particularly nasty match-up for this Tennessee team. The Vols defend well enough to give themselves a chance, are getting smart, difference-making basketball from John Fulkerson on a regular basis, and got the best we’ve ever seen from Yves Pons today in non-fluke fashion.
The only way this loss really hurts is if Tennessee doesn’t take care of enough of its own business the next seven weeks. KenPom projects the Vols to finish 18-13 (10-8), which is playing .500 ball in SEC play the rest of the way. That would get the Vols in the conversation. The team we saw today can do more than that.
The schedule breaks into two parts, with a pair of well-timed intermissions. The Vols will come back from Kansas to face Texas A&M in Knoxville on Tuesday; the Aggies are 166th in KenPom. Then it’s the warm-up:
at Mississippi State, at Alabama, vs Kentucky, vs Arkansas, at South Carolina
There’s a chance to get Quad I wins in three or four of those games, with the toughest tests at home. Then the Vols get Vanderbilt in Knoxville on February 18. Then it’s the finale:
at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn
That finish might go five-for-five in Quad I.
The goal, as always: get better. Be playing your best basketball in March, and give yourself the best possible opportunity in the bracket along the way. The loss today won’t help the resume on paper, but it was definitely among Tennessee’s best basketball so far. Can this team, still learning how all its pieces fit together, keep getting better as the schedule does? We saw today it can have a chance against anyone. It just needs to get on the dance floor to prove it. Every win counts.
UGA signed 19 players in December. They’ve since taken 2
scholarship transfers, taking them to 21 signees. Further, the Bulldogs
also have two unsigned OL commitments who they’re hosting this weekend and desperately
want to hold onto in Broderick Jones and Sedrick Van Prann. Importantly,
they took two transfers on top of their 25 enrollees from 2019, so unless they
want to roll scholarships into 2021 (like Tennessee appears willing to do and as
Jesse Simonton from Volquest.com has astutely
noted is the smart thing to do if you’re taking instant impact transfers each
year) then theoretically they’re done at 23 if they hold onto those two OL.
However, they are also hosting a good number of newly offered
kids this weekend, including 3-star DBs Daran Branch (a former Ole Miss commit)
and Charles Bell (a former Syracuse commitment who in particular appears to be
on commit watch); 3-star ATH DJ Lundy; and 3-star instate DL Cameron Kinnie (previously
down to Army and Air Force). UGA is also
battling Florida and Miami for 4-star S Avantae Williams, who is in Gainesville
this weekend and could potentially visit Athens next weekend depending on what
happens with Branch and Bell. Additional
last-weekend visitors are OL Marcus Henderson (who UT has passed on) and WR
Ladd McConkey (set to visit Tennessee this weekend unofficially).
All that to say, there are *quite* a few scenarios in which UGA hits its theoretical maximum 23
signees – and potentially a handful more than a couple of additional – very
easily before 5-star RB and major Vol target Zach Evans is considered. And
that’s before we get to perhaps the most salient visitor to the point here: 4-star
instate RB Daijun Edwards who is also visiting Georgia this weekend. Edwards is currently scheduled to trip to
Tallahassee next weekend, but it’s far from beyond the realm of possibility
that the two parties could decide to pair up this weekend and be done, with
Edwards shutting down his recruitment and UGA finishing up its RB class with
Edwards and signee Kendall Milton. Obviously
that in and of itself would almost certainly remove UGA from contention for Evans.
What all of that means is that, whatever Georgia and Evan’s
relationship is right now and whatever either side would like it to be going
forward, there are a LOT of moving pieces on just Georgia’s side of the ledger
that could preclude them from being an option for Evans should he want them to
be. Now, in order for Tennessee to end
up signing the 5-star, program-changing RB, they’ll have to knock this weekend’s
official visit out of the park – a near certainty – AND get themselves comfortable
with whatever off the field issues have existed in the past. But assuming both of those things happen there
could very well exist a scenario in which Evans sees the Vols as not just his
best choice but his only choice. And
that would be, to put it mildly, huge for Tennessee.
With the news of Jay Hardy in fact signing with Auburn during
December’s early signing period, that removes any chance the Vols can land the
instate DL standout. And while that’s
disappointing from a talent perspective, not only does the way he handled his
recruitment confirm that Coach Jeremy Pruitt dodged a major character risk
bullet but it also allows the staff to move on and concentrate on the few
remaining prospects on the board.
Interestingly, and likely only coincidentally, those handful of players
still on the board (unless someone new pops up in the next 2.5 weeks) are all
on offense. For Pruitt, a former elite
Defensive Coordinator who has revamped Tennessee’s defense during his two
seasons in Knoxville, this surely must feel strange. However, given how strong the Vols defensive
immediate and long-term future looks he’s likely at least partially ok with
it. Further, when one looks at the
offensive proclivity of the recent college football champions, with LSU being
the most recent and most extreme example, and even most of not all of the playoff
teams, it’s clear that the old adage that defense wins championships is not
necessarily true. So as the Vols look to
close out their 2020 class strongly, it looks like they’re taking an
offense-first approach, which is exactly what this roster needs.
We’ve pushed for more playmakerson offense throughout the cycle. Since
the early signing period ended Tennessee has added former 4-star WR Velus Jones from USC as a 1-year grad
transfer as well as former 4-star Nebraska ATH Miles Jones as a walk-on.
This past weekend Tennessee hosted TE/WR DeeBeckwith and FSU
commitment Malachi Wideman, and all
indications are that the Vols are in very deep for both prospects. Beckwith is
a Kyle Pitts clone – a big, agile WR masquerading in a TE body with the kind of
explosiveness that one rarely sees in that sort of 6’5 frame. He’s simply put the
kind of player the Vols don’t have on the roster. Wideman is, even more than Beckwith, a freak. At 6’5 and with the kind of athleticism to
make him a Top 100 basketball prospect to go with his Top 50 ranking on the
gridiron, Wideman would be the absolute cherry on top of what is already a
strong WR class. This weekend the Vols
will host WRs Ger-Cari Caldwell and Ladd McConkey (unofficially), with
Caldwell a South Carolina lean going into the weekend and McConkey seemingly waiting on a Vol offer. They are different kinds of prospects, with
Caldwell more of a big bodied WR and McConkey profiling as a Slot WR. In a major turn of events 5-star RB Zach Evans will also officially visit Knoxville
this weekend. Evan’s recruiting saga is
well known, and until things get more serious between him and the Vols it’s not
super worthwhile to delve too deeply here.
Suffice it to say that Evans, if he can mature and put his past transgressions
behind him, would be a program-changing type of RB.
We’ve also highlighted the strong
offensive line class the Vols have put together. The Vols have added to that with the
much-hyped transfer of former UGA stalwart Cade
Mays, and this past weekend also hosted fast-rising Southern Mississippi
commitment Dylan Spencer. Spencer, who just finished his first season
on the offensive line after transitioning from defense, earned 1st
team all state honors in MS and also showed out during AL/MS Game
practices. At 6’3, 300 pounds, the Vols
think he can play Offensive Tackle which is a position that the Vols haven’t
found anyone for this cycle after hitting two homeruns last year in Wanya
Morris and Darnell Wright. Spencer is
likely not at the very top of Tennessee’s list at the moment, and he’s got
offers from Mississippi State (visiting there this weekend) and Missouri among
a few others, so he might decide he doesn’t want to wait on the Vols. That’s something to keep an eye on.
Finally, we’ve made the case
for Tennessee signing as many prospects as possible in this class due to the
need to get the overall talent AND depth in the program up to par to truly
contend for championships. With the high-quality
transfers and how the Vols appear to be approaching the final signing period –
setting themselves up to have multiple prospects want to jump in the boat – that
does appear to be the direction Pruitt is taking. Whether that pans out or not remains to be
seen and will depend on who wants in and when.
This weekend in Knoxville Tennessee will look to knock Evans’ and
Caldwell’s visits out of the park and evaluate what they want to do with McConkey
(who is currently scheduled to OV to UGA next weekend, and they have in fact
offered). At the same time, they’ll be
keeping an eye on Wideman’s visit to Oregon and Beckwith’s visit to Florida, hopefully
communicating with those prospects as much as is allowed. Once the dust settles from all of the visits,
Tennessee will be able to assess where they are with these targets and
strategically use assistant coaches’ and more importantly Pruitt’s inhome
visits this next week before the final dead period begins. The hope here is that the landscape has an orange
hue to it, with a bigtime focus on closing with the kind of offensive talent
that can take the program to the next, championship contending, level.
Are the suspensions of Silvio De Sousa and David McCormack good news or bad news for Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament hopes?
If this was college football, maybe you lean into the bad news argument: one game against a top five opponent (and number one in KenPom) playing without a starter and a key reserve, if you beat them they weren’t at full strength, if they beat you it’s a worse loss, etc. But in the 30+ game landscape of college basketball, I don’t think a Tennessee upset at Kansas gets poo-pooed on Selection Sunday unless the Jayhawks fall off the earth without De Sousa, which seems unlikely given that he plays a little more than eight minutes per game. Winning at Kansas would still be a huge deal for this team, and now you’ve got them a little short-handed.
This Tennessee team continues to find itself in the space between its own history. Here’s a chart we’ve used before, showing Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era:
Year
KenPom
Record
Finish
2019
26.24
31-6
Sweet 16
2014
23.69
24-13
Sweet 16
2018
22.27
26-9
Round 2
2008
22.17
31-5
Sweet 16
2006
19.44
22-8
Round 2
2010
18.50
28-9
Elite 8
2007
18.29
24-11
Sweet 16
2009
16.48
21-13
Round 1
2020
13.50
12-6
2002
12.67
15-16
2017
12.62
16-16
2011
12.41
19-15
Round 1
2012
11.38
19-15
NIT
2003
10.99
17-12
NIT
2013
10.47
20-13
NIT
2005
8.89
14-17
2016
7.31
15-19
2004
7.30
15-14
NIT
2015
7.24
16-16
The Vols continue to play a tick below every Tennessee team to make the NCAA Tournament post-Jerry Green except one (Bruce Pearl’s final season), and a tick above the rest of the field. Some of those Tennessee teams in that next group down made the NIT, some finished at or near .500.
If you compare the Vols to a couple of teams we hoped could make the tournament in late January, you’ll find some cautionary tales. Donnie Tyndall’s squad was 12-5 (4-1) five years ago today, though just 77th in KenPom. And the advanced metrics proved to be true: Tennessee went 3-10 the rest of the regular season, failed to make the NIT, and finished with the lowest KenPom rating of any Vol squad (2002-present).
Rick Barnes’ second squad lost to Chattanooga in the opener, dropped a pair of close games in Maui, and almost won at Chapel Hill. They were 9-9 (2-4) through their first 18 games before winning four in a row, including Kentucky and Kansas State in Knoxville, to get to 13-9 (5-4) at the end of January. But they went 3-6 the rest of the way home, and also failed to make the NIT despite finishing that season 57th in KenPom.
So we’ve seen Tennessee get to this point through the first third of SEC play twice in the last six years, only to watch them peak too soon and ultimately miss both the NCAA and the NIT. This season there’s a separate conversation to be had with Tennessee’s schedule, which takes a step up in February and then a giant leap in the last five games (at Auburn, at Arkansas, vs Florida, at Kentucky, vs Auburn). Right now, the Vols just need wins; the opportunity for quality will be there at the end if the total is high enough to be in the conversation.
But if you’re looking for a resume win, this would be the best one of the season, with or without De Sousa and McCormack.
It’s clearly a chaos year in college basketball, which leads to a soft bubble. The current last four in via the Bracket Matrix:
Virginia Tech 14-5 (5-3), 57 KenPom
NC State 14-5 (5-3), 43 KenPom
Minnesota 11-8 (5-4), 34 KenPom
DePaul 13-6 (1-5), 62 KenPom
And here’s who went to Dayton last year:
Belmont 27-6 (16-2), 49 KenPom
Temple 23-10 (13-5), 69 KenPom
St. John’s 21-13 (8-10), 88 KenPom
Arizona State 23-11 (12-6), 57 KenPom
Last season only two teams with more than 13 losses made the field as an at-large: Florida (19-15) as a 10 seed, Ohio State (19-14) as an 11. That might get a run for its money this season. If Tennessee ends the regular season at 18-13 (10-8) – its current KenPom projection – the Vols should be in the conversation.
A win over Kansas would do incredible things for that conversation. But even without that, a good performance from the SEC in this weekend’s challenge would be big. Unlike years past, we’ll get most of the league’s best in the running tomorrow: Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Georgia sit it out this year. Big 12 teams are still favored in six of ten matchups in KenPom:
Missouri at #14 West Virginia – 12:00 PM – ESPN
Iowa State at #16 Auburn – 12:00 PM – ESPNU
LSU at Texas – 2:00 PM – ESPN
Mississippi State at Oklahoma – 2:00 PM – ESPN2
Tennessee at #3 Kansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN
TCU at Arkansas – 4:00 PM – ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M – 4:00 PM – ESPNU
#15 Kentucky at #18 Texas Tech – 6:00 PM – ESPN
Kansas State at Alabama – 6:00 PM – ESPN2
#1 Baylor at Florida – 8:00 PM – ESPN
The SEC is currently tied for fourth among major conferences in KenPom’s league efficiency ratings, a clear step behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12 – which is why a tie or win tomorrow would be huge for the league – but a crowded SEC can hold its own against the ACC and Pac-12, creating opportunity on the bubble.
At the top of all these projections, of course, is Kansas. The Jayhawks are number one in KenPom, but chaos controls atop the ladder as well: until their 21-point win over Kansas State, Kansas led the nation in KenPom but their efficiency rating was below 30. Only twice in the KenPom era has the number one team finished with a rating below 30: the 2006 Florida Gators, and in 2003, when 32-4 Kentucky finished atop the leaderboard but was upset by Dwyane Wade in the Elite Eight. Both of those seasons saw three seeds win the NCAA Tournament, and elite superstars can shine in the absence of an elite team (Horford and Noah in 2006, Wade plus Carmelo Anthony from the eventual champs in 2003). To put this in perspective: the 2019 Vols, 10th in KenPom with a 26.24 efficiency rating, would be 3rd in 2020 KenPom right now.
There are still good reasons Kansas is number one, and they start with Devon Dotson: the 6’2″ sophomore guard leads the race for KenPom Player of the Year, and is in the Top 300 nationally in ten different statistical categories. Offensively, he’s been sensational at getting to the line: 6.4 attempts per game shooting 82.5% from the stripe. This happened to Tennessee last year, when Dotson had 17 points on eight shots plus 6-of-7 at the stripe in their overtime win. Defensively, Dotson has created at least one steal in every game this season, including five in their overtime win against Dayton. This is very bad news for a Tennessee team currently giving up a steal on 11% of its possessions; how the primary ball-handlers deal with Dotson and the environment is step one of any blueprint for an uspet.
The loss of a 6’9″ and 6’10” player due to suspension would be a big deal for just about any other team…but Udoka Azubuike negates a bunch of that. Everything we’ve been saying about the importance of John Fulkerson getting quality touches in the paint – 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage, 34th nationally in two-point field goal percentage – Azubuike is the poster child for. He leads the nation in effective field goal percentage because the seven-footer is 94-of-122 (77%) from inside the arc. For a Tennessee defense built on shot-blocking (12th nationally) and playing great defense inside the arc (4th nationally), Azubuike is the biggest test Tennessee will see all season.
It’s a tough ask: Dotson excels at taking the ball away from an already-sloppy Tennessee backcourt, Azubuike excels at scoring inside in ways that might negate Tennessee’s greatest defensive strength. Kansas is projected to win by 14 in KenPom; playing close may not help the tournament resume directly, but would move the Vols up the ladder wherever advanced metrics come into play.
So how do you beat this team? What worked for Baylor (don’t foul Dotson, don’t turn it over) and, to a degree, Villanova, doesn’t seem as feasible for Tennessee. But what the Vols can do, for starters: don’t be afraid to get physical and put them on the line. Kansas shoots 66.7% as a team; take away Dotson (and McCormack, a 75% shooter), and you’ve got Azubuike at 40.3% (29-of-72) and Marcus Garrett at 67.4%.
And on the other end, going at these guys and getting Azubuike off the floor would expose the absence of De Sousa and McCormack. A couple quick fouls on the seven footer could change the complexion of this game, and Tennessee’s best basketball in the post-Lamonte/Santiago Vescovi world has involved getting to the line: Tennessee shot five free throws against LSU and a dozen at Georgia, but in the four wins:
Missouri: 12-of-16 (75%)
South Carolina: 22-of-28 (78%)
Vanderbilt: 13-of-14 (92%)
Ole Miss: 20-of-24 (83%)
Get in there and bang, on both ends of the floor.
What’s interesting about Saturday is it’ll be the first time in a few years that #Vols basketball can go into any game with absolutely nothign to lose.
Might as well play fast and hard and see what happens, right? Nothing to lose.
The bubble is still going to be there on Sunday. In a season full of chaos, one we’ve felt con gusto in Knoxville, Tennessee can create a little more of its own on Saturday. Land some blows, climb the ladder, and we’ll see if the Vols can cash it in.
College Gameday at 11:00 AM, then the Vols and Kansas at 4:00 PM (with the A-team of Shulman, Bilas, and Rowe). Big day ahead.
