Two weeks before my son was born in 2017, we were going through a box of old photos at my parents’ house and came across a letter. I shared this story on Twitter at the time, and it was the first thing I thought of today.
I was born in 1981, too early for the joy of Tennessee’s 1985 season. My parents took me to my first game the following year; now as a parent myself I know exactly why they picked the Army game, with all that smooth cupcake texture…except we lost, 25-21. They took me to a few others that year and in 1987, including a trip to the Peach Bowl at the end of the season.
And then the following year, my dad and I both decided I would give up a floundering AYSO career on Saturdays and go to all the games.
If you’ve had small children in the last, I don’t know, ten years? There’s that question in the back of your mind: “Will we be good enough in time for my son or daughter to fall in love with them?”
In 1988, the week after a particularly difficult loss to Alabama made it six straight to open the season, my grandparents sent Johnny Majors a card. I recall it having something to do with Keep On The Sunny Side and their seven-year-old grandson.
I’m sure they expected nothing in return, especially that week. Instead, they got this:
Tennessee, as I know you’ll recall, did alright from there. And not too bad for the next 13 years either.
Coach Majors only got the next four of them. He won back-to-back SEC titles in 1989 and 1990, and gave us one of the greatest wins in program history in South Bend in 1991.
I was 11 in 1992; too young to fully understand everything that happened with Majors and Fulmer. Having written on the Vols for the last 15 years, most of which have been the kind when you do wonder if your children will care, there’s a part of me that looks back at all that and says, wait, we moved on from Majors after all the good of 89-91 because he lost to Arkansas by one, national champion Alabama by seven, and South Carolina by one?
And we did. And it worked, though that’s not at all the right word really. We love Phillip, we love Johnny, etc.
But now, nearly 30 years removed from all that, both Majors and Fulmer are examples of how none of us are ever fully defined by our highest or lowest moments.
My generation was sensationally blessed to grow up with those teams from 1989-2001. But I started going when the Vols started 0-6. It wasn’t the winning; it never is, not really. You live long enough, your teams will win and lose.
Johnny Majors played on Tennessee teams that went 4-6 in 1954 and 10-1, SEC Champions in 1956. There are some around here old enough to argue he’s the only one to get a worse deal from the Downtown Athletic Club than Peyton Manning. He won a national championship at Pittsburgh in 1976, left for the alma mater, and went 4-7 his first year at Tennessee. His first eight teams finished the season unranked. Five of his last seven finished in the Top 15. Like Fulmer, he gave his all for Tennessee, and we asked him to leave. Like Fulmer, he never really left, even if he wanted to.
The longer I’m alive and the longer I sit at these keyboards, the more I’m grateful for the stuff beyond the box score that makes Tennessee what it is. For me, it was a letter and a t-shirt when we were 0-6 in 1988.
Johnny Majors is as Tennessee as anyone, ever. And he sure helped a lot of us fall in love with the Vols too.
The teams with the most overall returning production are Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, and USC. Also notable toward the top of the list are Virginia Tech, Purdue, Florida State, Texas, and North Carolina.
At the bottom of the list? Utah, which is why I’m not high on Utah despite the arrival of Jake Bentley. In all, seven Utes from last year’s team were drafted. On offense, the draft losses were limited to running back Zack Moss, although his contribution last season — 1,416 yards and 15 touchdowns — constitutes a huge hole all by itself. The bigger catastrophe is on the defensive side of the ball, where three defensive linemen and three defensive backs were all drafted and another defensive back left early but didn’t get picked. Kyle Whittingham knows what he’s doing, but that right there is a chore.
Other notables toward the bottom of the list are Miami, Baylor, LSU, Mississippi State, and Michigan.
Offensive returning production
Notable teams that return a lot on offense include Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Ole Miss, and USC. Teams with challenges on that side of the ball include LSU, Georgia, and Utah. More on Georgia’s offensive challenges in a minute.
Defensive returning production
Teams in particularly good shape on defense include Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, USC, Florida State, and Purdue. On the flip side, Baylor, Utah, Miami, Mississippi State, and Alabama all have major holes to fill. With the way they recruit, the Tide are going to be fine, of course, but plugging those holes is on the to-do list.
What about the SEC?
Here’s how things shape up in the SEC:
Team
Offense
O-Rank
Defense
D-Rank
Total
T-Rank
64%
5
46%
13
53%
12
63%
6
62%
8
62%
6
63%
7
55%
11
58%
10
57%
8
61%
9
59%
9
38%
12
77%
2
62%
7
65%
4
76%
3
71%
2
32%
13
53%
12
45%
14
84%
1
60%
10
70%
3
51%
10
46%
14
48%
13
49%
11
63%
7
58%
11
53%
9
68%
6
62%
8
70%
3
69%
5
69%
4
77%
2
69%
4
72%
1
31%
14
87%
1
65%
5
Overall
Overall, A&M leads the league in returning production, followed closely by Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. This is just one of the many reasons we and so many others reaaaaally like the Aggies as a dark-horse pick for the West. It’s also why we Vols fans are still looking over our shoulders at Kentucky even though Tennessee is improving.
LSU brings up the rear with only 45%. The Tigers are basically starting over, and it’s not just because they lost Joe Burrow. Also gone are Clyde Edwards-Helaire, most of the offensive line, most of the linebackers, and Thorpe Award-winner Grant Delpit. And we haven’t even talked about the coordinators yet.
Gameday on Rocky Top 2020 College Football Preview Magazine
When you sort that thing by offense, Ole Miss takes the top spot by a long shot, followed by A&M and Tennessee. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels could make trouble for some folks in the West this fall.
Vanderbilt earns the distinction of returning the least amount of offensive production in the SEC, largely due to having every single one of last year’s quarterbacks either graduate or jump ship. LSU has offensive roster attrition you knew was coming.
Georgia has issues as well, most notably the early departures of quarterback Jake Fromm and running back D’Andre Swift and the loss of four starters along the offensive line to the NFL and the transfer portal. The offensive returning production for the Bulldogs is just one of the factors that I believe is going to lead to Florida overtaking them this year.
Defense
Vanderbilt wins today’s Out-Of-Balance award, as the Commodores return the most amount of defensive production to offset returning the least amount on offense. Go ‘Dores.
Right behind Vanderbilt is Georgia, a frightening prospect for a defense that finished first in the nation in both rushing and scoring defense last fall. Whatever challenges they might face on offense, the defense may be able to erase. Kentucky’s right there with the Bulldogs, returning nearly as much from a defense that finished in the Top 25 last season.
Teams with more work to do than most on that side of the ball are Mississippi State, Alabama, LSU, and Auburn. Most of those are recruiting well enough to weather the storm.
Your turn
Does anything in either of those lists jump out at you as being particularly important? Does anything in either of them not matter at all for other reasons? Tell us what you think.
In analyzing teams for our annual Gameday magazine, we take a variety of factors into account. One of the core data points is a team’s “returning production,” the idea being that experience matters. Generally speaking, any given player should be better this year than last and should be much better as a senior than he was as a freshman.
Given that, returning more production should be better for a team than returning less, at least to some degree. If all of your guys are back, your team should be bigger, better, stronger, and more experienced. Having everybody back from last year’s team by itself isn’t probative of how good a team is going to be, but it should have some bearing on how much better or worse they should be, assuming all of the other variables remained constant.
Of course, those other variables are always shifting around from year-to-year, too, and depending on how they change, they can affect projections for a team more or less than returning production. Those other factors include (1) how well the team has recruited to replace outgoing players, (2) head coaching and coordinator continuity, and (3) the team’s baseline, meaning how good the team actually was last year in competition on the field.
Returning production, then, isn’t intended to be the end of the analysis. It’s merely one factor among many, and it can itself be influenced positively or negatively by the other factors, most notably recruiting. Those other factors can’t, however, eliminate the importance of returning production altogether. For instance, a team that recruits especially well can do a better job of replacing outgoing talent than one that doesn’t, but recruiting can’t really replace experience very well at all. Experience must be earned on the field in live fire. A roster full of 5-star freshmen could overwhelm a roster full of 2-star sixth-year seniors, of course, but all else being equal, teams that are both talented and experienced should beat teams that are one but not the other.
It’s returning “production,” not returning “starts”
Also, returning production isn’t just about how many players or starters return for a team. It’s about the “production” returning to this year’s team. Our returning production analysis cares less about how many players or starters are back and more about what percentage of last year’s rushing yards, receiving yards, passing yards, tackles, sacks, tackles for loss, and pass breakups are back on the field this fall. Games played and games started are sometimes factored in, but only as a proxy for production when production is difficult to measure. For instance, offensive linemen (and to a somewhat lesser degree, defensive linemen) generally don’t have stat sheets. Whether they’re valuable to their own team is best measured by how often their coaches put them on the field.
So, when we analyze teams with an eye to the upcoming season, returning production is always one of the things we look at first. All else being equal, should we expect this team to be better or worse than it was last year? Once we have that, we then turn to the other factors to determine how much or how little it might matter.
This year’s magazine (which you can pre-order now for a mid-June delivery) includes our ranking of all of the FBS teams by offensive, defensive, and overall returning production with a spotlight on the SEC teams. We’re going to post both of those temporarily here tomorrow so that we can discuss some of the more interesting results.
The 2018 National Champions nearly did it again last year but ran into a Bayou Buzzsaw wielded by Heisman Trophy-winner Joe Burrow in the 2019 championship game. Balance was the theme of the season for the Tigers with the offense putting up 529 yards per game and the defense holding opponents to only 288. The offense ranked No. 5 in the nation, and the defense ranked No. 6.
The Tigers this year aren’t so much re-loading as they are just pulling the trigger again. Three players – receiver Tee Higgins, linebacker Isaiah Simmons, and cornerback A.J. Terrell – left early for the NFL, and the offense loses four seniors along the offensive line, but most of the key components from last year’s near-national champions are back. Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Justyn Ross will star in the offense, and most of the defensive line returns as well.
The biggest concern on the schedule is a Nov. 7 date with Notre Dame in South Bend. Expect the Tigers to roll through the ACC again this season right into the playoff.
2. Ohio State
The Buckeyes navigated the transition from Urban Meyer to Ryan Day just fine, thank you very much, following up a 13-1 season in 2018 with another one in 2019. They beat five ranked teams on their way to the College Football Playoff semifinal, where they lost a close one to Clemson. Like Clemson, Ohio State did it with balance: the nation’s No. 1 defense and No. 4 offense.
Chase Young and Jeff Okudah were both selected in the Top 3 picks of the NFL Draft, and J.K. Dobbins was picked No. 23, but there’s plenty of talent left behind. Justin Fields returns for another run at the Heisman with Master Teague III and Chris Olave in supporting roles. And the defense has talented guys ready to fill the voids left by Young and Okudah.
An early test in Eugene against the Oregon Ducks will set the tone, and they’ll have to contend with the regular minefield that is the Big 10 schedule, but the Buckeyes are positioned for the playoff again this year.
3. Alabama
Alabama missed the playoff for the first time last fall but finished the season 11-2, the two losses coming to then-No. 2 LSU in the regular season by five points and then-No. 15 Auburn by three points.
As usual, the NFL has raided Alabama’s roster. Nine players from last year’s team were drafted, four of them in the first round. But running back Najee Harris returns, and the receiving corps gets DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle back. Quarterback Mac Jones got a great deal of experience filling in for the injured Tua Tagovailoa last season, so he could take over again this fall, but he’ll also be challenged by elite prospect Bryce Young (GSEC6).
Alabama’s season kicks off with a game against Southern Cal, and the schedule also includes an early trip to Athens to take on a revenge-minded Georgia. They’ll also need to hold off SEC West opponents LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M. That’s a ton of tough games, but don’t expect more than one of them to go sideways for the Tide.
4. Oklahoma
Oklahoma’s defense improved from No. 114 in the nation in 2018 to No. 38 last year under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. Meanwhile, Lincoln Riley’s offense just kept rolling on its way to a No. 3 national ranking, piling up 538 yards per game.
A perennial playoff participant, Oklahoma has a few additional holes to patch this fall. The offense was hardest hit with the graduation of Heisman Finalist Jalen Hurts and the early departure of receiver CeeDee Lamb to the NFL. Charleston Rambo will be ready to lead the receiving corps in the absence of Lamb, but Riley will likely have to entrust the offense to former 5-star prospect Spencer Rattler.
The defense will miss Kenneth Murray, Neville Gallimore, and Parnell Motley, but they’re in good shape and hoping to improve even more this fall under Grinch.
Assuming Riley does his thing with yet another new quarterback, expect the Sooners to contend for the national championship again this fall.
5. Florida
Florida has dramatically improved since Dan Mullen took over in 2018. After a 4-7 season in 2017, Mullen’s first team was 10-3, and they finished last season with an 11-2 record and a No. 6 national ranking. They’ve not been able to get past Georgia so far, though.
This could be the year.
Kyle Trask returns to the field for Florida this fall, and although the Gators’ offense loses receivers Van Jefferson, Freddie Swain, and Tyrie Cleveland, it returns pass-catching tight end Kyle Pitts and receiver Trevon Grimes. The defense will miss CJ Henderson, David Reese II, and Jonathan Greenard, but most other key pieces are back, including three different defensive backs with three interceptions each.
The Gators will need to improve the run game to increase their chances of jumping ahead of Georgia in the SEC East. But they were only one score apart last season, and this year they appear to be neck-and-neck. Expect the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party to decide the East this fall.
6. Georgia
Georgia’s defense was exceptional last season, but struggles on offense – and a historically good LSU team – deprived the Bulldogs of an invitation to the playoff.
This offseason, new offensive coordinator Todd Monken will have to deal with the departures of quarterback Jake Fromm, running back D’Andre Swift, and all but one starter along the offensive line. The team also has to find a replacement for Lou Groza Award-winning kicker Rodrigo Blankenship. But most of last year’s exceptional defense returns to the field this fall, including Monty Rice, Azeez Ojulari, and Richard LeCounte.
Things could prove more difficult for the Bulldogs this year with Florida nipping at their heels, Tennessee closing the gap, and Alabama rotating onto the cross-divisional schedule for a mid-September game. Depending on how those three contests go, the Bulldogs could roll right back to Atlanta for the fourth year in a row or they could end up finishing third in the SEC East.
7. Oregon
The Ducks had high hopes for the 2019 season, primarily because quarterback phenom Justin Herbert was returning along with one of the nation’s best offensive lines. Things didn’t go quite as planned. The team still finished 12-2 and ranked No. 5 in the nation, but the defense led the way.
Oregon returns a huge portion of that defense this fall, including literally everybody in the secondary, plus a couple of key linemen and linebacker Isaac Slade-Matautia, whose stat sheet looks like it’s just had Thanksgiving dinner.
The offense does need to replace Herbert and almost all of the offensive line, but the cupboard isn’t bare. CJ Verdell and Johnny Johnson III both return, as does All-American lineman Penei Sewell. And Joe Moorhead, former Mississippi State head coach and Penn State coordinator, takes the reins of the offense this fall for the Ducks.
Oregon trades last year’s game against Auburn for one against Ohio State this season. Regardless of how that one goes, the Ducks are in good shape for the Pac-12 title.
8. Penn State
It wasn’t just Ohio State that dashed the dreams of Penn State last year, it was a surprising blow from then-No. 17 Minnesota under P.J. Fleck. So when Penn State lost offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne to Old Dominion, James Franklin went out and hired Gophers’ coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, who’d been helping Fleck row the boat since 2017.
The Nittany Lions will have to contend with some early departures, including those of do-everything KJ Hamler and Yetur Gross-Matos, but they return a healthy amount of production from last year’s team, especially on offense. Quarterback Sean Clifford will miss Hamler, but can still count on the running back stable of Journey Brown, Noah Cain, and Devyn Ford running behind an offensive line that returns 80% of its starts.
The Buckeyes are still in the way, but stealing a coordinator from an up-and-coming rival and having most of a good roster back should have the Nittany Lions positioned to make another run at them this fall.
9. Wisconsin
300
Three of the Badgers’ four losses last season came to Oregon in the Rose Bowl and Ohio State twice on its way to the playoff. The team was limited by a woeful passing attack that couldn’t be saved by either an excellent defense or Jonathan Taylor running for over 2,000 yards for the second year in a row.
And now, Taylor is gone, as is Quintez Cephus and nearly half of last year’s receiving yards with him. Quarterback Jack Coan is going to have his hands full piloting an offense with such huge holes to fill.
Fortunately, the defense returns largely intact despite the losses of linebackers Zack Baun and Chris Orr. That’s because nearly all of the other key pieces are back, including everyone in the secondary and everybody on the line except for one reserve.
Unless one of Wisconsin’s running backs is ready to run for 2,000 yards this fall, the most reasonable expectation for the Badgers is a season pretty similar to last year’s.
10. Texas A&M
Jimbo Fisher’s second A&M team went 8-5, but those five losses were to LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, and Auburn.
The Aggies return much of their offense this fall, led by Kellen Mond, who threw for 2,897 yards and ran for another 500, and Isaiah Spiller, who added another 946 yards on the ground. The offense loses receivers Quartney Davis and Kendrick Rogers, but a solid pass-catching corps remains, led by Jhamon Ausbon. Plus, the offensive line returns 80% of its starts from last fall.
The defense loses a more significant amount of production from last year, the biggest losses being Justin Madubuike and Debione Renfro, but has plenty of talent remaining.
Most importantly, the Aggies trade last year’s game against Georgia for one against Vanderbilt and last season’s non-conference game against Clemson for one against Colorado. They still have Alabama, LSU, and Auburn to contend with, but the road’s a lot easier this year.
11. Notre Dame
Notre Dame only lost twice in 2019, once to then-No. 3 Georgia and once to then-No. 19 Michigan. They did that with a Top 20 defense and an offense that somehow ranked in the Top 15 in points scored despite barely ranking inside the Top 50 in rushing, passing, and overall yards per game.
The offense returns quarterback Ian Book, but loses over 2,000 receiving yards with the departures of Chase Claypool, Chris Finke, and Cole Kmet.
On defense, Notre Dame must replace two draft picks in Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem, plus Jamir Jones. The secondary will be without safety Alohi Gilman and cornerback Troy Pride Jr., but they’ve been recruiting well enough to have guys ready to step in to fill those spots.
The Fighting Irish host Clemson this fall and play Wisconsin at Lambeau Field in addition to appointments with Stanford and USC. Whether they can get past all of that and make it back to the playoff will depend largely on whether they can increase the offensive firepower.
12. Auburn
Auburn’s 9-4 record last year included losses to four ranked teams in Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Minnesota, and a win over Alabama.
New offensive coordinator Chad Morris will command an offense that returns Bo Nix and his top three targets from last season, led by receiver Seth Williams. The bad news is that they lose running back JaTarvious Whitlow and return only five out of 66 total starts along the offensive line.
There are a couple of huge holes on defense as well. Up front, they’ll miss All-American Derrick Brown and fellow lineman Marlon Davidson, and the secondary loses four players who started at least 12 games, including first-round draft pick Noah Igbinoghene.
The addition of Morris to the offense should help, but it’s tough in the ever-competitive SEC West, not to mention having Georgia as your permanent SEC East rival. If they make the most of their key games, the Tigers could finish well, but a new-look offensive line could make it difficult.
13. Texas
Tom Herman heads into 2020 with two new coordinators. On offense, it’s Mike Yurcich, most recently passing game coordinator at Ohio State, but prior to that coordinator at Oklahoma State from 2013-18. The new guy on defense is Chris Ash, who was head coach at Rutgers from 2016-19.
Texas ranks as one of the top teams in the nation in returning production, both on offense and on defense. Most importantly, Sam Ehlinger and running back Keaontay Ingram return for the offense. The receiving corps loses nearly 2,000 receiving yards with the departure of Devin Duvernay and Collin Johnson, but receiver Brennan Eagles returns to lead a still-solid unit. Joseph Ossai is back to lead the defense.
So much returning production, plus the fact that Texas is still recruiting like a national champion, could mitigate the learning curve associated with two new coordinators. They’ll need everything clicking to get past Oklahoma in the Big 12.
14. LSU
Last season was a magical one for Ed Orgeron, Joe Burrow, and the LSU Tigers. The team strung together a perfect 15-0 season capped by a decisive victory in a national championship game 90 minutes from campus.
But that was last year.
This year, only four college football teams rank lower in offensive returning production, and the Tigers’ defensive returning production isn’t much better. It’s not just Burrow, either. It’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire. It’s most of the offensive line and most of the linebackers. It’s Thorpe Award-winner Grant Delpit, and it’s both coordinators.
There is plenty of talent left on the roster to mitigate such catastrophic losses to some degree, however. Ja’Marr Chase returns to lead a still-star-studded receiving corps, and All-American defensive back Derek Stingley Jr. returns to lead a solid secondary.
But the Tigers will have a very difficult time duplicating what they did last year.
15. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys finished only 8-5 last season, but they return more overall production than anyone else except Georgia Tech.
Quarterback Spencer Sanders returns, as do five of his top six pass-catchers from last season, including Tylan Wallace. Most importantly, running back Chuba Hubbard returns as well. Hubbard ran for an eye-popping 2,094 yards and 21 touchdowns last fall.
As good as things are on the offensive side of the ball, things are even better on defense. They return nearly 90% of their starts in the secondary, all but one reserve player on the line, and the key pieces from last year’s linebacking unit, including Amen Ogbongbemiga, who had 100 tackles last season.
The Cowboys have road games at Oklahoma and Baylor ahead of them this fall, but they get Texas and Iowa State at home. With so much returning production, they could make things interesting in the Big 12 this fall.
16. Tennessee
Tennessee went from receiving death threats in October to receiving votes in the final AP Poll in January, turning a catastrophic 1-4 start into a 7-1 finish for an 8-5 season.
This fall, they’ll have the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator in consecutive years for the first time since 2014, plus an enviable amount of roster continuity to boot. On offense, the returning players include all of the quarterbacks, all of the running backs, and all of the starting offensive linemen, plus Georgia transfer Cade Mays, if he’s eligible. They do lose three pass-catchers from last fall, but Josh Palmer’s back to lead a still-talented unit. On defense, they return everybody on the line, all but one in the secondary, and all but two at linebacker.
With late-season momentum and coaching and roster continuity they haven’t had in a long time, look for Tennessee to not only maintain its lead over the second tier of the SEC East but also to make things much more interesting against Georgia and Florida this fall.
17. North Carolina
In his first year at Chapel Hill, Mack Brown led a Tar Heels team that had been 5-18 the two prior years to a 7-6 record that included a one-point loss to Clemson. The offense ended up No. 12 in the nation in total yards.
Almost all of that offense returns for Brown’s second act. His leading characters include quarterback Sam Howell, the team’s two leading rushers in Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, and seven of the team’s best pass-catchers. And the offensive line returns 50 of 65 starts.
The news is not quite as good on the defensive side of the ball. They lose two starting linemen, including fifth-round draft pick Jason Strowbridge, but they return most of the secondary and a solid linebacking corps led by Chazz Surratt and Jeremiah Gemmel.
Regardless of how an early test against a good Auburn team in the second game of the season turns out, expect further improvement from the Tar Heels this fall.
18. Southern California
Coming off an 8-5 season, USC returns the third-most overall production in the nation. On offense, all of the Trojans’ passing yards are back, as are 99% of their rushing yards, most of their receiving yards, and a majority of their offensive line starts. They also return huge percentages of last year’s productivity on defense.
Quarterback Kedon Slovis returns to command the offense after throwing for 3,502 yards and 30 touchdowns last fall. He’ll miss Michael Pittman, an early second-round draft pick who piled up 1,275 receiving yards last fall, but a still-solid group remains, led by Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns. And the entire herd of running backs returns looking to get on track behind an offensive line returning three starters. On defense, everybody’s back but lineman Christian Rector and ‘backer John Houston Jr.
With so much of last year’s roster returning, just getting the defense and running game going will go a long way toward getting the Trojans in the mix for the Pac-12 title.
19. Utah
Last year, the Utes won their second consecutive Pac-12 South title on the strength of the nation’s No. 2 overall defense. They were so good on that side of the ball that the NFL came and stole it all.
In all, six defensive players were drafted and another left early but wasn’t picked. The losses include Bradlee Anae, Leki Fotu, John Penisini, Jaylon Johnson, Terrell Burgess, Julian Blackmon, and Javelin K. Guidry. That pretty much leaves Mika Tafua and Davin Lloyd to lead an entirely new unit.
The offense didn’t escape the raid, either, as running back Zack Moss was drafted as well. And what the NFL didn’t get, graduation did, as quarterback Tyler Huntley is out of eligibility. He’ll be replaced by either Cameron Rising, who transferred from Texas in 2018, or Jake Bentley, a graduate transfer who started 33 games at South Carolina.
That’s a lot of roster attrition to overcome, but Kyle Whittingham didn’t just luck into seven draft picks. He made it happen, and he’s probably cycling up to do it again.
20. Minnesota
Minnesota merrily rowed all the way to an 11-2 record last fall, losing only to Top 15 teams Iowa and Wisconsin and beating Auburn in the Outback Bowl. The defense was special – ranking No. 10 in the nation – and the offense was good enough to get them to a first-place finish in the Big 10 West and a No. 10 ranking in the final AP Poll.
Now the Gophers have to figure out how to do it after losing a significant amount of production, especially on defense. Four players on that side of the ball were drafted, including All-American defensive back Antoine Winfield Jr.
The offense loses receiver Tyler Johnson and running back Rodney Smith, but returns quarterback Tanner Morgan, receiver Rashod Bateman, and all of the offensive linemen.
The schedule doesn’t seem too daunting for the Gophers. They travel to Madison to take on Wisconsin, but get Michigan and Iowa at home. If they can shore up the losses, particularly on defense, they could do as well or better than last year.
21. Michigan
With rival Ohio State breaking in a new coach and the Wolverines returning most of their key pieces last year, Michigan looked ready to take control of the Big 10. They only lost four games, and all of them to ranked teams, but the missed opportunity had to sting.
And now, the window of opportunity looks to be closing again, as Michigan returns very little production from either the offense or the defense this fall. Shea Patterson has graduated, and ten players were drafted, three of whom left early.
Joe Milton and Dylan McCaffrey will battle to replace Patterson at quarterback. Whoever wins will have help from running backs Zach Charbonnet and Hassan Haskins and receivers Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins. Linebacker Cameron McGrone and defensive back Ambry Thomas will have the responsibility of getting the defense ready.
The Wolverines will have their opportunities again this season against Ohio State and others. They just need to take advantage of them.
22. Cincinnati
Cincinnati’s 11-3 record in 2019 included two losses to conference rival Memphis and a non-conference loss to Ohio State. The Bearcats’ offense wasn’t really up to the task, but a Top 40 defense helped them achieve a No. 21 ranking in the final AP Poll.
This year, the defense loses linebackers Bryan Wright and Perry Young, but gets all of its starters on the defensive line and most of its key guys in the secondary back.
The offense will be looking for improvement, and returns three key pieces to try to make that happen. Quarterback Desmond Ridder had 2,164 yards and 18 touchdowns passing and 650 yards and 5 touchdowns rushing last year. He’ll have his leading receiver Alec Pierce back with him as well this fall. They’ll miss 1,000-yard rusher Michael Warren II, but Gerrid Doaks looks to pick up the slack.
The Bearcats travel to UCF this fall but get both Memphis and Houston at home. If the offense can find a groove, they’ll have a shot at revenge with Memphis this fall.
23. Kentucky
Kentucky posted an 8-5 record without a true quarterback last season. This year, Terry Wilson returns, but he may have to fight off Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood to win back the job. Whoever lines up under center will have nearly 2,000 yards of returning rushing yards to lean on and 80% of the offensive line back. The team’s Top 25 defense loses a key piece at each level but remains a mostly solid group. If they get things worked out in the passing game, they could make some noise in the SEC East.
24. Boise State
Bryan Harsin and the Broncos are poised to make it three out of the last four Mountain West titles thanks largely to the return of quarterback Hank Bachmeier and 1,000-yard rusher George Holani, both of whom earned their stripes as freshmen last year. The team does have significant concerns along the line of scrimmage, however, as most of the starters on both sides have departed, including edge rusher Curtis Weaver. Boise State will get a chance to shine when Florida State comes to town the third week of the season.
25. UCF
UCF looks to get back to the top of the American Athletic after finishing second to Cincinnati last fall. This year, the nation’s No. 2 offense returns quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who threw for 3,653 yards and 29 touchdowns as a freshman last season. McKenzie Milton, who missed all of last season with a serious leg injury, may be ready to compete for the position again as well. Eight starters return on defense, including most of the secondary. Hosting Cincinnati late may decide the season for the Knights.
Gameday on Rocky Top 2020 should hit the newsstands all over the state of Tennessee (and select locations in neighboring states) somewhere in the back half of June. Hey, that’s an astounding degree of precision in these uncertain times.
As a Gameday on Rocky Top reader, you can get it before then, because we get our copies at the same time the distributor gets theirs, and we can get copies in the mail the next day while the distributor needs another week to get them into the stores.
With all of the uncertainty this year, we are printing fewer copies, so while the magazine is going to be on the newsstands in Tennessee and in limited areas in neighboring states, it could be a teensy bit more difficult to find this summer. So, skip the scavenger hunt and the face mask and reserve your copy now.
Why should I get this magazine?
As always, our Gameday magazine is More of Your Favorite Team and No Ads. We narrow our focus and go deeper on the teams you care most about and intentionally avoid adding content you’re probably not going to read. In Gameday on Rocky Top, for instance, we have 48 pages of content devoted exclusively to the 2020 Tennessee Volunteers, and the other 64 pages focus on the Vols’ 2020 opponents, along with their competition in the SEC and the national Top 25. We want you to be interested in every page of our publication from cover to cover.
Also, if you’re looking for good and solid reasons to believe in the Vols this season, this is for you. The longer we wrote, the more these things magnified our optimism for the season:
Continuity always matters, but it probably matters even more this year with the offseason cut short. Tennessee has more roster and coordinator continuity this year than it has since 2014.
History shows that an offense explodes in Jim Chaney’s second year at the controls. This is Jim Chaney’s second year at the controls.
If Cade Mays is eligible, Tennessee will return 108% of its offensive line starts from last year. 🙂 The defensive line also improved dramatically last year. A team is better when it is good in the trenches.
That’s just a taste of why we’re even more optimistic than usual about the Vols this season.
How can I get the magazine?
Here are the ways you can get a copy:
Order a physical copy online for $12.99 plus tax and shipping, and get it a week before it hits the newsstands.
Pick up a physical copy in your grocery or drug store for $12.99 plus tax when it hits the newsstands in late June.
We also plan to offer this year’s edition electronically at a lower price point through some combination of downloadable PDF, mobi, epub, and/or online membership. We hope to have more details on that early next week, so if you’re interested in an electronic version, stay tuned.
Gameday on Rocky Top 2020 College Football Preview Magazine
Last week we looked at the last 15 years of Tennessee’s SP+ data and found that the Vols’ 2020 projection in that metric would be a season most similar to 2009, 2012, and what became of 2016. The common thread in those years: you came to kickoff almost every single week believing the Vols had a real chance to win.
If the 2020 Vols had a real chance to win every Saturday, from Furman to Alabama, they would be on a short list in Tennessee’s recent past. In the 11 seasons since Phillip Fulmer left the sideline, the Vols have been a three-possession underdog at kickoff 17 times (via closing lines at covers.com). Only in 2015 and 2016 did the Vols escape a three-possession line the entire year. And only in the other two best-comparison SP+ years – Lane Kiffin’s 2009 and Derek Dooley’s final campaign in 2012 – were the Vols only a three-possession underdog once. Kiffin took the air out of a +30 line against Urban Meyer; Dooley’s Vols were +19 against Alabama in his final season.
Including Fulmer’s final 2008 season, the Vols lost 35 games by at least 17 points in the last 12 years. The only season in that stretch without a three-possession loss: 2015, which is the only season without a two-possession loss since 1998. The next year the Vols were blown out by Alabama but had no other three-possession losses.
But again, other than 2015 and 2016, losing multiple games by 17+ points has become the norm. The transition years from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt are particularly damning, with 11 three-possession losses in 2017 and 2018. Other than 2015 and 2016, the only seasons in the last 12 years with just two 17+ point losses:
2009: Dexter McClustered at Ole Miss, and an underrated Virginia Tech team pulled away late
2014: at #4 Oklahoma, at #3 Ole Miss. The Vols were feisty when Josh Dobbs took over, but also faced Georgia and Florida in down years; this was Missouri’s second division title year
Here too, I’d include 2012 in the conversation: the loss to Florida was technically three possessions at 37-20, but as you might not want to recall, the Vols led that thing midway through the third quarter before the defense became non-existent. They were blown out by Alabama. And they threw in the towel at Vanderbilt in Dooley’s final game.
So, if the 2020 Vols just played every opponent to within two possessions? They’d join only 2015 as the only Vol squad to do so since…2001! And once you start going backwards from there, you’re on a first-name basis with the three-possession losses in the 90’s: Nebraska, two losses in The Swamp plus a Florida loss in Knoxville featuring Todd Helton, and two weird bowl blowouts to Penn State. That’s the entire list of 17+ point losses in the 90’s.
Have a chance to win every game/stay within two possessions, and 2020 would join 2015, 1998-2001, 1996, 1992, and 1990 in the last 30 years. So of course, it’s not the only benchmark for a successful season – the Vols did plenty of good in years when they got up on the wrong side of the bed one week. But it would be a clear step forward. And more than anything, for fans it’s about the value of that belief: “We have a chance to win this game.”
Rodney Cofield, know on Twitter as @TheiSmooth, has been running his Atlanta-based digital marketing and multimedia firm iSmooth Media for the last two years. The company seeks to create high impact content for individuals and corporations alike, and has established itself with local clients like Georgia Tech and Atlanta Public Schools as well as global brands like Mercedez Benz and Adidas among many others. And as recruiting becomes more and more of a multimedia enterprise, Cofield’s links to Tennessee could be very mutually beneficial.
A native Atlantan and huge sports fan, Cofield noticed that despite the huge numbers of high level prospects in the area across multiple sports, Atlanta athletes weren’t getting the type of multimedia exposure that those from other places in the country were getting. He started making videos and taking photos for Atlanta Public School recruits and athletic programs, earning the trust of players and coaches alike. From there he became more and more well known in the area, producing commitment videos for prominent recruits like 5-star Oklahoma WR Jaden Haselwood.
Vol fans likely first came across Cofield’s work with the release of 4-star Kamar Wilcoxson’s commitment video. The video shows Cofield’s blend of storytelling and action, drawing the viewer’s attention throughout until the very end when Wilcoxson announces his commitment to the Vols with a dramatic reveal. But that wasn’t his first connection to Tennessee football. That story, as does everything in recruiting, involves relationships. And in this case, it includes a random meeting in the San Antonio airport with Tennessee’s 2020 signee Harrison Bailey. As Cofield tells it, he was walking by when Bailey – there for the All American weekend – was showing his QB Coach Tony Ballard (of Hustle Inc QB Academy and 7×7 team) the aforementioned Haselwood video and recognized Cofield. The three made a connection and not only has Cofield become close with Bailey (or HB5, as he calls him) and Ballard but has since become affiliated with Adidas as well through Hustle Inc. Wilcoxson, from Ellenwood, GA, played for Hustle Inc and thus became acquainted with Cofield. Thus, the video.
Upcoming changes to Name, Image, Likeness (NIL) rights and regulations are going to make a huge impact on college sports whenever they are put into place. With them, branding for athletes will certainly begin for high level recruits starting when they are in high school, and Cofield is positioned to be a real player in this realm with his multimedia skills and experience as well as his relationships with players and coaches – high school and college – alike. And while he didn’t grow up a Tennessee fan, his relationships with HB5 and now Wilcoxson have certainly started him trending in that direction and he plans on being in Knoxville for a few games this fall. He also has his ear to the ground for Tennessee when it comes to recruits, and thinks that the upcoming month of June could have big things in store for the Vols 2021 class. Will we see more iSmooth-produced commitment videos that end with a Big Orange T at the end? Seems more likely than not, but we’ll all have to stay tuned…
It’s almost magazine time – more on that soon from Joel – but this week our writing staff had a conversation on this year’s cover and title. After the Kiffin/Dooley era and Butch Jones’ first season, we – as writers and fans – have spent many of the last six summers asking some form of the same question: “Okay, we’re going to make progress this fall, right? But how much?”
Now on our fifth coach in the last 13 years, the same length of time between our last division title and now, I find a lot of the necessary patience is now built in to that question. The majority don’t look at the 2020 Vols and their 2020 schedule and use the “back” word with large swaths of confidence. That’s never been a fruitful pursuit in the first place, the 90’s now three decades gone. But the hope remains that we will go “forward” this fall. How far?
Setting aside the large list of uncertainties related to the coronavirus, some of the most helpful context for me comes from the same source we use often when talking football. Bill Connelly’s SP+ data is our favorite predictive model for the future, and one of the most interesting when looking back at the past.
In last year’s magazine, we did an adaptation of a story on our site from January 2019, ranking the last 50 years of Tennessee Football in SP+. The metric itself goes back to 2005, but in 2016 Connelly developed estimated SP+ ratings all the way back to 1970. The primary takeaway from our story: to show just how far the Vols fell in 2017, the worst Tennessee season of the last 50 years by a healthy margin. That framed Jeremy Pruitt’s initial work, which still finished third-to-last in SP+ since 1970, but represented significant progress over the year before. Pruitt’s rebuilding task is historically most similar to what the Vols were trying to accomplish in the early 1980’s, which Johnny Majors ultimately paid off in 1985.
That story used percentile ratings: the 2017 Vols were in the 17th percentile, while Tennessee’s best teams of the last 50 years were in the 95th-98th percentile all-time. But in framing 2020, I find it helpful to just use the actual SP+ data from the last 15 years. In this year’s preseason SP+ ratings, the Vols earned a 14.7 (points better than the average team on a neutral field). How does that compare to the last 15 years of Tennessee football?
Working backwards through the list, we get:
The Bottom
2017: 1.2 SP+ rating (points better than the average team on a neutral field)
No need to dwell here: total collapse to 4-8, blown out by Missouri and Vanderbilt, no other option but change.
The First Year (or Years 0 & 1 for Dooley)
2013: 5.1
2018: 5.5
2011: 6.9
2010: 7.7
Not much surprise here either: the first seasons for Dooley, Butch, and Pruitt, plus an injury-riddled second year for Dooley. One other common theme here: all four of these teams faced particularly difficult schedules. Dooley and Butch got Oregon in year one, Pruitt got West Virginia. Dooley’s second year, the last of facing two rotating SEC West opponents, saw the Vols get #1 LSU and #8 Arkansas. Butch got the Kick Six Auburn team in year one; Pruitt got (and beat) a ranked Auburn team in year one.
Fulmer’s Down Years Are Now Our Year 2
2019: 10.7
2008: 12.0
2014: 12.2
2005: 12.3
Last season is at the bottom of this tier; not a bad accomplishment considering what happened in September. The 2019 Vols would be five point favorites over the 2018 Vols, themselves four point favorites on their 2017 counterparts. The 2008 Vols had the nation’s number one defense in SP+…and the Clawfense finished 97th. Butch’s year two died against Florida but was resurrected by Josh Dobbs. And the 2005 Vols got sick on the quarterback carousel with injuries just as contagious.
The good news about this tier: in all four of these cases, Tennessee was significantly better the next season.
We Have a Chance to Win This Game
2020: 14.8 (preseason projection)
2012: 15.1
2009: 16.2
2016: 16.3
The preseason SP+ ratings put the 2020 Vols as four points better than their 2019 counterparts on a neutral field. That means they’d be two touchdown favorites on the 2017 Vols. Not bad work from Jeremy Pruitt going into his third year.
What’s the common theme in this tier? I think it’s competitiveness: not with Missouri and Vanderbilt, but with everyone. In 2009, 2012, and 2016, only against Alabama in 2012 should the Vols truly have had no shot. Some of these games turned into nice surprises for us (Kiffin vs Florida and Alabama). Some of them went very differently than we thought at kickoff the other way (Dexter McClustered in 2009, Dooley’s last hurrah at Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Vanderbilt in 2016).
Remember for 2016 in particular, this rating takes the entire season into account. In preseason, the 2016 Vols were at 19.2 in SP+. Those three points could’ve made a difference against Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. So you’ll also note this tier features records from 5-7 to 9-4. Now, I don’t think the 2020 Vols are looking at 5-7 unless there are catastrophic injuries. But herein lies the beauty of SP+: every play counts, and it’s meant to give you an idea of a team’s strength, not the value of their resume. Not all 9-4’s are created equal, as we learned under Butch Jones. In this group you also had total breakdowns on the defensive side of the ball in 2012 and 2016 tied to new coordinators, another plus for the 2020 Vols who bring back the same faces.
So this becomes a helpful framework for 2020: can I come to kickoff thinking we have a chance to win every Saturday? This group had its flaws, but I do think they’re at least a half-step above, “Can beat anyone and be beaten by anyone.” You’re still going to get an upset here and there. But for teams on this level, you could believe victory was possible every week.
Competing For Championships
2006: 18.9
2015: 19.5
2007: 20.2
The step beyond for Tennessee: get back to Atlanta. The 2007 Vols did it. The 2015 Vols were one play(s) away against the Gators from doing it. And the 2006 Vols were ranked eighth in November before Erik Ainge got hurt.
Here again, this framing is more fruitful to me than chasing memories of the 90’s. And here again, each of these teams lost four games. But their relative strength was a step above what we saw in the previous tier: that group we expected to compete, this group (which is where 2016’s preseason numbers would go) we expected to win.
To me, the question isn’t about whether the Vols can break into this tier in 2020. If they do the work well in the previous tier – competitive with Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, and Georgia – they’ll have a chance for clear success and progress.
Of course, these numbers are all about predicting your ability to win. The most important thing is to actually go do it. Hitting what feels like the top portion of realistic projections for 2020 – win one of those four big games and don’t get upset by anyone else – and following it up with a Citrus/Outbackish bowl victory would put the Vols at 10-3. Tennessee hasn’t won 10 games in a season since 2007, and hasn’t ended a year with less than four losses since 2004. That would be a tremendous accomplishment.
The wins will always matter most. But Pruitt has done a good job getting forward progress from the Vols from the bottom of 2017. There should be more of that on the way this fall. How much?
If I can come to kickoff 13 times this year and believe we’ve got a real chance to win, that’s a really good start. If this team can finish off some of those wins, the Vols will keep this whole thing moving forward.
Although an offer to a 2022 prospect in May of 2020 normally
wouldn’t cause much of a ripple, Tennessee’s offer to Atlanta-area QB Sam
Horn yesterday shines a light on how far Tennessee’s Quarterback situation
has come in just a year or so. After
entering his inaugural 2018 season as Tennessee’s Head Coach with only RS
Sophomore Jarrett Guarantano, graduate transfer Keller Chryst, and true freshman
late signee JT Shrout, Jeremy Pruitt has completely revamped the position to be
one of real strength heading into the 2020 season but potentially even more so in
the near future. Assuming 5-star true
freshman Harrison Bailey isn’t able to overtake Guarantano in the latter’s
senior season, he’ll head into the 2021 season battling some combination (pending
transfers) of Shrout, Brian Maurer – he of some very promising play in the 2019
season that was ultimately derailed by injury – and Top 100 overall player and
current 2021 commitment Kaidon Salter.
That’s to say nothing of course of the real possibility that Tennessee
brings in former 5-star and true freshman USC starter JT Daniels as a transfer
this offseason, which we have advocated
for in this space.
The 2022 QB class in general appears to be loaded, with
numerous high level talents across the country.
What makes it unique from Tennessee’s perspective of course is the very rare
presence of an elite QB prospect within the borders of the Volunteer State in Ty
Simpson from Martin, TN. Simpson has
offers from all of college football’s bigtime powers and is considered to at
least be on the level of Bailey as a prospect.
He’s also very strongly considering Tennessee, to the point where one
might reasonably consider him to be a Vol lean at this point. By all indications Simpson is Tennessee’s #1
2022 QB on the board, and there’s also a thought that Simpson would like to be
the only QB in his class, aka “The Man.”
Is Tennessee willing to take a commitment from Simpson and shut it
down? Perhaps, maybe definitely. Hard to say of course unless and until
Simpson decides to commit. In the meantime,
it’s worth noting that Tennessee has familial ties with, and has received
visits from, two of the other most highly touted and recruited QBs in the 2022
class. Kaden Martin, son of
Tennessee legend and current WR Coach Tee Martin, received a Tennessee offer
earlier this winter and has since received offers from schools like Miami, Arkansas,
and Ole Miss among others. Braden
Davis, son of former Tennessee OL Antone Davis who was also the VFL
Coordinator not long ago, is even more highly ranked and recruited holding
offers from Alabama, Oregon, Georgia, and other elite programs while ranking as
the 247 Sports #4 Dual Threat QB in the class.
Davis visited Knoxville in early March before the shutdown and obviously
has a fondness for his father’s alma mater despite living in Delaware.
Horn is a fast-rising prospect in his own right, already holding
offers from numerous ACC schools, Missouri and Kentucky before Tennessee jumped
in with an offer. UGA Offensive
Coordinator Todd Monken inquired last night as well, no doubt due to Tennessee
making the leap. Horn is yet another
prospect with deep ties to the University, as both of his parents attended
school in Knoxville and he has an older brother who’s a UT student now. His family has been season ticket holders for
years and he’s attended numerous games in Neyland Stadium and he called the
offer a “dream come true”.
So what do we make of the offer to Horn in light of where
the Vols sit with Simpson, as well as Martin and Davis? Well, from this vantage point it seems like
there are a number of factors at play here.
For one, Horn appears to be a really good looking prospect who is going
to end up being a high level recruit. And
as a lifelong Vol fan from a UT family, it makes sense to throw your hat in the
ring and not be late to the party.
Secondly, even if it’s true that Simpson is Tennessee’s #1 target on the
2022 board, he’s not ready to commit yet.
Coach Jeremy Pruitt isn’t one to go without multiple backup plans,
especially in recruiting, so this tracks his standard operating procedure. Thirdly and finally, if Tennessee does land
JT Daniels, what does that do with someone like Simpson and all other 2022 QBs
who might all of the sudden see a more crowded QB room in Knoxville as an impediment
to committing to Tennessee.
The bottom line is that Pruitt’s goal is to continue to
improve Tennessee’s roster at every position – from 1st team to
scout team – as quickly and as much as he can.
With the QB position inarguably being the most important position on the
field, getting that group to an elite level takes on that much more significance. Therefore, giving themselves as many options
as possible to land at least one if not multiple bigtime QBs in each class, and
building on the work done from the 2019-2021 classes (not even inclusive of the
potential add of Daniels) is imperative.
That’s what Tennessee has done by offering Horn this early and despite
what had appeared to be a relatively set 2022 QB board, and it’s yet another
example of Pruitt being one of the best in the game when it comes to not just
recruiting but also roster management and future-based thinking.
When Dylan Brooks committed on April 26, there was certainly excitement over landing a five-star and the number one player in Alabama. But, at the time, Brooks was by far the biggest fish in Tennessee’s pond. The Vols were low in blue chip ratio with lots of work left to do in this class.
Fast forward two weeks, and it feels like everything changed.
Jesse Simonton at VolQuest did the research, and calls Tennessee’s run of 11 commitments in 15 days the best two-week run in program history. The Vols now have nine four-or-five-star commitments in their group of 21, a blue chip ratio of 43%. There’s still room to grow to get the Vols above the 50% threshold teams need to hit to compete for the national championship. But there’s good news there too.
The current class has the most buzz, and rightfully so ranked second in the nation. That generated some poo-pooing from Bud Elliott at 247 Sports, who wrote on how unlikely it is that the Vols finish with the nation’s number two class. But for Tennessee right now, it’s not about whether the Vols can finish number two or number three or whatever. Everything for the Vols is about sustainable progress, and Jeremy Pruitt was already setting the pace through recruiting.
Tennessee’s 2019 class finished 13th nationally, then 10th in 2020. But their blue chip ratios (Bud Elliott’s benchmark) on signing day both came in at 56.5% (13 of 23 signees). As we wrote back in February 2019, those are the highest blue chip ratios at Tennessee since 2005.
We know the thrill of a top-tier recruiting class in early summer: Butch Jones did that before he ever coached a game here with a class that ultimately finished seventh (on the strength of 32 signees!). And we know the recent thrill of landing a can’t-miss prospect: Jones, again, was there with Kahlil McKenzie. Both of those are good teachers in no guarantees and the importance of player development.
But we also know how much of Jones’ 2014 and 2015 classes were built on great in-state years and an unusually high number of legacy targets. By contrast, Pruitt’s strong blue chip classes featured two in-state players in 2019 (Eric Gray and Jackson Lampley, a legacy target). In 2020 the Vols got while the getting was good in-state with six blue chip players from the Volunteer State, including legacy signee Cooper Mays.
In Tennessee’s current commit list, the top-rated players are from Florida, Alabama, Maryland, Georgia, Maryland, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Florida, and North Carolina. Brentwood’s Walker Merrill is the class’s highest-rated in-state player at #11, one of only two players from Tennessee in the current group of 21. That too looks much more like an old Phillip Fulmer class.
If the Vols finish out with a handful of three stars, then sure, we’ll note that a class with a 36% blue chip ratio may not be deep enough to get the Vols where they ultimately want to go when these guys really start being counted on in 2022 and beyond. But even if that’s the case, the elite talent at the top of this group is already noteworthy.
On the strength of the national championship, Tennessee signed the number one class in the nation in 2000, including five five stars. They added three five stars in both 2001 and 2002. Since then, the Vols have added multiple consensus five stars just five times in 19 years:
2007: Eric Berry & Ben Martin
2010: Da’Rick Rogers & Ja’Wuan James
2015: Kahlil McKenzie & Kyle Phillips
2019: Darnell Wright & Wanya Morris
2021: Terrence Lewis & Dylan Brooks
As you can see, Pruitt has now done twice what no one, including Fulmer, did more than once after 2002.
There’s a long way to go through uncharted and uncertain waters. But we’re not just celebrating this class because we’re bored.
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