The GRT Statsy Preview Machine inched out of the garage after a service call last week and basically just took a cruise around the block getting a feel for its new wheels. It went 14-13 (51.85%) overall last week, and hit only .500 in both Category 2 (7-7) and Category 3 (3-3). For the season, it is now 31-30 (50.82%) in Category 1, 18-12 (60%) in Category 2, and 8-6 (57.14%) in Category 3. Incidentally, if you compare its projections to the same spreads that SP+ uses, it went 17-10 (62.96%) overall last week, about the same as SP+ itself. I trust Bill on the spreads he’s using; I just don’t know the source. I use Oddsshark’s “Opening” spreads. Whether that’s a casino, sportsbook, Oddsshark itself, or just whoever is first, I don’t know. If anyone can enlighten, I’d love to hear it.

But for now, here are the GRT Statsy Preview Machine’s picks for Week 5 of the 2020 college football season. As always, if you’re wondering why we do this or what I mean when I refer to “confidence” and when I place game predictions into different categories, check out this post.

GRT SPM 2020 Week 5 Picks

The Unknowable is losing a bit of chaotic power but is still a threat to rear its head and wreak havoc. With that caveat, here’s what we have for this week:

There are only four Category 3 games that the SPM likes particularly well this week.

What are you favorite games this week?

The Tennessee Volunteers kick off Gameday this week at noon on the SEC Network, and there are six (six!) games involving eight (eight!) future opponents (plus one former opponent) that will probably impact the Vols’ 2020 season.

First up is this week’s college football TV schedule curated just for Vols fans. A full and searchable college football TV schedule for this week is below the curated version.

Friday, October 2, 2020

If you owe your family or someone else some time, you’re good both Thursday night (no games) and Friday night. If you’re looking to kill some time with football, though, this one will do the job.

Gameday, October 3, 2020

The Vols kick the day off in the noon slot on the SEC Network when they host the Missouri Tigers. But set your DVRs for the South Carolina-Florida game, too, as we’ll get some more information about how frightened we should be of the Gators.

In the afternoon slot, we get looks at three future Vols’ opponents. Alabama and Texas A&M square off on CBS. Assuming the Vols beat Missouri at noon, root for the Tide here, as it increases the chances that the Tennessee-Georgia game the following week gets the prime CBS 3:30 slot. Kentucky also plays in the afternoon slot, so keep your eye on both games.

The feature game in the evening slot is Georgia-Auburn on ESPN at 7:30. Root for Georgia here, as the Bulldogs also need to win for the Vols to be playing at 3:30 on CBS instead of noon next Saturday. Future Vols opponents Arkansas and Vanderbilt are also in action, so watch live what’s most interesting and DVR the rest unless you’d prefer to just channel hop among all three all night long.

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire 2020 college football TV schedule for this week:

Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the counterpart rankings for the Missouri Tigers. Again (we’re saying this a lot), be wary of the numbers, especially Missouri’s, as they’ve only played Alabama so far.

Details below.

When the Vols have the ball

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

It would appear that the Vols should have an opportunity in the passing game, although Missouri’s bad numbers so far against the pass should probably be attributed to having played Alabama. Still, they were better against Alabama’s rushing attack than they were against the Tide’s passing attack, so maybe there’s something to it.

Where’s the danger?

Tennessee did not do well against South Carolina on first downs, and Missouri did quite well defending first down against Alabama. Same story in the run game. If Missouri makes Tennessee one-dimensional by shutting down its running attack, that could spell trouble for the Vols.

Gameplan for the Vols on offense

Pass to open up the run.

Vols on defense

Link to table

Where’s the opportunity?

Against South Carolina, Tennessee did well defending the run, on first down, and getting into the Gamecocks’ backfield to disrupt plays. Against Alabama, Missouri struggled against all of that.

Where’s the danger?

The Vols did not do well defending the pass against South Carolina, and that appears to be Missouri’s strength.

Gameplan for the Vols on defense

The Vols appear to have a distinct advantage on defense, although, once again, Missouri is probably better than its numbers suggest right now due to only having played Alabama at this point. Still, if Tennessee shores up its pass defense, they should be in relatively good shape.

Special teams

Link to table

Small sample sizes here, so any conclusions are suspect.

Turnovers and penalties

Link to table

Again, it’s hard to draw too many firm conclusions here, but one game in, the Vols have protected the ball better than Missouri has. On the other hand, Missouri has been the more disciplined team from a penalty perspective.

Without Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway, we prepared ourselves for two outcomes: the instant emergence of mythical freshman wide receivers, or more opportunities for Eric Gray and Ty Chandler in the passing game. It’s hard to use the word “exciting” when those new opportunities come at the expense of no longer having #15 and #1 out there, but both options felt full of possibility.

Instead, 16 of Jarrett Guarantano’s 19 completions at South Carolina went to veteran wide receivers.

It worked, so no complaints here, just an early observation.

Josh Palmer is one-for-one as the alpha: six catches, 85 yards, and the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter. That’s a great sign. I thought Velus Jones played a role similar to the way the Vols used Von Pearson a few years ago, finishing with five catches and 29 yards, unable to fully break free but with plenty of opportunity ahead, it seems. Brandon Johnson had the best catch of the night, finishing with three for 73. And Ramel Keyton was targeted more often than his two catches for 20 yards.

It’s early, and it’s weird with the virus. But none of the freshmen got involved in the passing game in week one, and Tennessee’s failures on third down didn’t allow enough distance between the Vols and Gamecocks to get them some snaps with Tennessee holding a comfortable lead.

Meanwhile, what we saw from the running backs in the passing game was…basically what we saw from the running backs in the passing game last year. Eric Gray got 31 yards on the ol’ flea flicker check down. Ty Chandler had one catch for 10 yards. And that’s it.

Last year Jennings, Callaway, and Palmer were a formidable trio: 123 catches between them, 61.5% of Tennessee’s total on the year by themselves. Dominick Wood-Anderson added 21 catches at tight end. And the backs? Gray and Chandler each finished with 13, or one per game…which is what they got Saturday. Tim Jordan had six catches in a dozen appearances.

The difference between Pruitt’s Vols and what we saw in Butch Jones’ five years can still feel a bit jarring in this department, considering the running back was an essential part of the passing game from 2013-17:

Tennessee’s secondary pass-catching RBs got the same kind of work in Jones’ offense that Gray and Chandler saw last year and last week: Marlin Lane had 11 catches in 2014, Jalen Hurd 22 in 2015 and 10 in his shortened 2016 campaign, Ty Chandler 10 in 2017.

Again, the Vols won and I thought Guarantano had one of his best starts. But I’ll be curious to see if the freshmen can get involved at receiver, and if Tennessee looks to Gray and Chandler more often. So far, it continues to be the preference of both the staff and the quarterback to throw the ball to receivers downfield far more often than not, even without Jennings and Callaway out there. If that continues to work, all this will go from curiosity to real strength. And it’s also nice to feel like the Vols have real options in the passing game we haven’t even seen yet.

Here’s our weekly color-coded look at how the Vols’ national rankings are trending in each of the official NCAA stat categories. A word of warning: With the pandemic causing conferences and teams to start their respective seasons at different times, the stat rankings are comparing teams that have played to teams that haven’t, so beware any hard, fast, and confident conclusions until much closer to the end of the season.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Passes intercepted, tackles for loss, sacks allowed, passing yards per completion, passing offense

Appears to need improvement: 3rd down conversions (which also suggests that the bottom in this new world is somewhere around 70, at least this week), first downs offense (this is surprising to me), red zone offense, rushing offense

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Team sacks, team tackles for loss, rushing defense, first downs defense

Appears to need improvement: Passing yards allowed, red zone defense

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Honestly, it’s hard to say at this point, although the punt return and punt return defense (and maybe kickoff return) numbers are probably good news even now.

Appears to need improvement: Net punting, although two of the three guys from Thinking Out Loud last night gave Vols punter Paxton Brooks credit for winning the game with that rugby punt.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Appears to be doing well: Not giving the ball to the other team

Appears to need improvement: Penalties per game, taking the ball from the other team