Gameday on Rocky Top

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Florida Gators tomorrow night.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Gators are somewhat turnover-prone, and the Vols’ defense is likely to inflame that a bit. Tennessee also appears to have a distinct advantage on the boards at both ends of the floor, and Florida’s propensity to foul will likely put Tennessee at the free throw line more often than usual. Plus, any advantage the Gators may have should be mitigated by the Vols’ terrific defense.

The bad news: The Gators shoot well, and if they are hot, they can make it a game.

The line isn’t out yet, but KenPom likes the Vols by 3 and puts the score at Tennessee 70, Florida 67, which translates into a 61% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 13 (Tennessee 75, Florida 62). For the last game against Vanderbilt, the Machine predicted a 21-point Vols win and a score of 78-57. Tennessee won by 20, 81-61.

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Knee-jerk analysis: Pretty even on offense, but, as you’d expect, the Vols’ defense is much better. The Gators are also more likely to turn the ball over. Rebounding and free throws look basically even if you look at the teams in a vacuum. But see below for the opponent impact.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Florida shoots about like Tennessee, and about like Colorado among prior Vols’ opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Vanderbilt and App State in the turnovers department.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Vandy and Missouri on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Hmm. Between Missouri and Alabama in getting to the free throw line, but not especially like either one of them.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The usual story here. Tennessee needs to improve its shooting, and Florida will present some resistance in that regard, but on the other end, the Vols are going to really make it difficult for the Gators to do as well as they usually do. Bottom line, Tennessee better than usual, but Florida worse.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Tennessee is still really excelling at turnovers, both in protecting its own and stealing its opponents’. The Gators aren’t bad at creating turnovers, but they’re teetering on bad at giving them up.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

That looks like a major advantage on the o-boards for the Vols and a less-pronounced advantage at the other end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Another huge advantage here for the good guys, as the Gators are likely to usher the Vols to the free throw line quite a bit. On the other end, Florida doesn’t get there especially often, and Tennessee isn’t likely to help.

Go Vols.

The Vols, we think, are back in action tomorrow against Vanderbilt. Tennessee lost a date with South Carolina on Tuesday, then lost the reshuffled trip to Nashville, but we’re hopeful we’ll see the Vols and ‘Dores in Knoxville tomorrow (6:00 PM, SEC Network). The SEC left the final Saturday of the regular season open on March 6, so there’s a chance to make up one game. We’ll see what happens.

In Tennessee’s first ten games, the Vols have faced three Tier A opponents (via KenPom) and two Tier B opponents. On the other side of the Vanderbilt game comes the season’s most important stretch: five straight weeks, ten straight games against Tier A or B competition. Tennessee’s final three games, as it stands today, are against lesser competition: the original date for the trip to Vanderbilt, a trip to Auburn, and Georgia in Knoxville. Throw in a potential make-up with South Carolina, and the Vols would finish with four straight games against teams outside the NCAA Tournament conversation (…we think. South Carolina has only played five games total, so they’ll have a ton of questions to answer upon their return to action).

But the stretch from January 19 through February 20 is where Tennessee’s fate will be decided: at Florida, Missouri, Mississippi State, Kansas, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU, South Carolina, Kentucky.

There are two goals coming into that stretch, and the one should have a good chance to lead to the other: win the SEC outright, and earn the program’s first number one seed.

The SEC

Three years ago, when the Vols last won the league, Tennessee opened SEC play in a big game at Arkansas. The Vols lost in overtime in a contest that featured heavy referee influence, shall we say. Emotions were high, etc. Then Tennessee returned home and gave up 341234 offensive rebounds in a loss to Auburn.

The Vols, of course, figured it out: they beat Kentucky in Knoxville four days later, went 13-5, and shared the league title with…Auburn. As it turned out, Tennessee played the second-best team in the league in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time.

I point that out to say this year, the Vols opened SEC play on the road against Top 15 Missouri, and delivered an emotional result of a different kind: the 20-point win that made those two goals up there the right ones for this team. Then they returned home and lost a weird lineup game to Alabama, who hit 10-of-20 from the arc and 8-of-11 in the second half.

Turns out, Bama’s good.

The Tide followed up with a 15-point win over Florida in Tuscaloosa, and just beat Kentucky in Rupp – still worth something – by 20, which is plenty of something. Alabama is 5-0 in the SEC and now 21st nationally in KenPom. I think Tennessee played the second best team in the SEC in game two, we just didn’t know it at the time…and like 2018, we won’t get another shot at them.

KenPom projects the Vols and Tide to “split” the SEC title: Alabama at 14-4, Tennessee at 13-4, and maybe they’ll get the South Carolina game rescheduled. LSU is one game back in those projections; the Tigers and Tide do play each other twice, so some of that may sort itself out. But Alabama has the pieces and the 5-0 head start to make a serious run at the league title. And they too will make a lot of their living right now: Arkansas, at LSU, Mississippi State, Kentucky, at Oklahoma, LSU, at Missouri in their next seven games. The logic here suggests you want to be ahead of Alabama in the standings when they finish that stretch on February 6, as a trip to Fayetteville on February 24 is Alabama’s only game against a Top 60 KenPom foe in their final seven contests.

KenPom projects the Vols to go 7-3 in that ten game stretch after Vanderbilt, which would put them in range for a 13/14-and-4 finish. They’ll all count, and that goes for the chase for a one seed too.

The #1 Seed

Let’s write GONZAGA at the top of your bracket.

Baylor goes next, but the Bears are getting ready to run their own little gauntlet: at Texas Tech, Kansas, at Oklahoma State in their next three. If they run that table, put them in all caps next.

From there, the chase for the two remaining one seeds gets murkier. As was the case two years ago, a lot will depend on how the selection committee views the power of each conference: in 2019, three ACC teams were placed on the top line, while Tennessee – fresh off a huge win over Kentucky and a huge loss to Auburn in the previous 48 hours – fell to the two line. Unlike previous years where regional sites mattered, this year we should get something that far more resembles a true s-curve (with a few exceptions to keep top teams from the same conference in separate regions). So, for instance, if the goal is to avoid Gonzaga for as long as possible, you don’t want to be the last two seed or the first three seed, because that should be Gonzaga’s region.

But the surest way to stay away from the Zags until the Final Four – a place Tennessee has never been – is to earn one of the other one seeds.

In non-pandemic times, number one seeds have averaged 4.5 losses on Selection Sunday over the last four tournaments. That, of course, includes conference tournament play; Tennessee hasn’t won the SEC Tournament since 1979. So all of these projections from KenPom would be pre-conference tournament.

KenPom Projected Records

• Gonzaga 23-1
• Baylor 21-3
• Michigan 20-4
• Villanova 18-4
• Tennessee 19-5
• Iowa 20-6
• Texas 19-6
• Creighton 19-6

I’d also throw in Houston, projected to finish 20-3 in the American, as an option for a top two seed. From here, it depends on who else can separate in the two best conferences (Big 10/12), and how the committee views leagues like the SEC and Big East by comparison. Illinois is just .05 points behind Tennessee in KenPom overall, but projected to finish 16-9. Similar stories with Wisconsin, Texas Tech, Kansas, and West Virginia.

If Alabama keeps winning, more power to them: that helps the league’s image in a year when Kentucky isn’t a factor. But no matter what Alabama does, the Vols have to keep holding up their end of the bargain.

For what it’s worth, Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology has the Vols grabbing the final number one seed (with Texas the two in that region, spicy). It puts LSU on the four line, Alabama at five, Missouri at six, Arkansas at eight, and Florida at ten. In the January 11 Bracket Matrix, Tennessee is the third two seed, which would put them in Baylor’s region if the curve held. There Missouri is a four, Alabama at seven, with Florida, LSU, and Arkansas all at nine.

The Vols technically won’t control their own destiny for the SEC title until Alabama loses a game, but if the Tide run the table, uh, they’ll deserve it. But Tennessee still feels very much in control of its own destiny to capture a one seed, especially as Big 10/12 teams begin to pick each other off. It’s still the right goal for this team, and one that would give them the best chance to check some other program firsts off the list.

UPDATE: Game postponed due to COVID-19 concerns within the Vanderbilt program. We’ll keep this up for Saturday’s game between the same teams, as that one is still on for now.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Vanderbilt Commodores tonight.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Vols should have decided advantages in almost every facet of the game this evening, especially on defense, in turnovers, and at the free throw line.

The bad news: Tennessee and Vandy are about equally as good at rebounding the ball.

Vegas has the Vols as 12.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 137.5, that puts the score at something like Tennessee 75, Vanderbilt 63.

KenPom likes the Vols by 12 and puts the score at Tennessee 73, Vanderbilt 61, which translates into an 87% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols to cover easily, by 21 (Tennessee 78, Vanderbilt 57).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Knee-jerk analysis: This looks even on the boards, but the Vols appear to have a decided advantage everywhere else. Tennessee is currently No. 10 in the AP Top 25, while Texas A&M is unranked. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 9, and the ‘Dores are No. 137.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Vanderbilt shoots about like the Vols. Colorado is the most similar prior opponent in this regard.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Alabama and Missouri when it comes to turnovers.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Basically like Colorado on the offensive boards. Also similar to Texas A&M.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Who doesn’t like free stuff? Vanderbilt.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols shouldn’t have much trouble hitting their shots tonight. Vanderbilt? Well, they’re probably going to have some trouble.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Ooh, look! Free turnovers! And they’re mine, all mine! I love turnovers!

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Yes, even with the defensive interference, we’re looking at an even game on the boards on both sides of the floor tonight.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee’s still not really getting to the free throw line all that often, but Vandy may make it a bit easier this evening. And on the other side of the floor, the Commodores are too proud to accept your stinking charity anyway.

Go Vols.

Ten games in, we’d normally be 33% of the way through the regular season. But depending on whether Tennessee’s game with South Carolina gets rescheduled, we’re more like 40-42% of the way home this year. Either way, we’ve got enough data to draw a couple of meaningful conclusions about this team.

Their defense still sets them apart: 87.1 in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings is second nationally, and still the best for any Tennessee team ever. I still think the offense played better than it felt at Texas A&M, in part because they got a lot of action late in the shot clock: “This possession isn’t going anywhere, wait no here’s a bucket…”. On Sunday evening the Vols are 27th in KenPom’s offensive ratings, flirting with that dual Top 20 set every national champion has.

But the most striking thing about the offense continues to be how truly balanced it is.

Through these first ten games, Tennessee’s top seven scorers all average between 8-12 points per game. It makes the Vols harder to scout, harder to defend. Five of those seven have led the team in scoring already, but Santiago Vescovi’s 23 on Saturday are still the team’s season high.

And we really haven’t seen anything like that on a tournament team at Tennessee.

This year should/will make 10 NCAA Tournament teams from Tennessee in the last 16 years. The other nine had either four or five players each account for at least 10% of Tennessee’s total points (it jumps up to six players in 2006 and 2009 if you round up from 9.5%+).

But these Vols currently feature seven players accounting for at least 10% of Tennessee’s points:

Bailey	16.1%
Fulkerson	15.1%
Vescovi	13.4%
Springer	13.0%
Johnson	11.1%
James	10.8%
Pons	10.2%

Offensively, Tennessee’s best teams have leaned either to the one-two punch, or far more balance:

One-Two Punch

Year	1st Scorer	% of Pts	2nd Scorer	% of Pts	Top 2
2007	Lofton	26.1%	J. Smith	19.1%	45.2%
2011	Hopson	24.1%	Harris	21.7%	45.8%
2014	McRae	26.2%	Stokes	21.2%	47.4%

In each of these cases, Tennessee’s top two scorers nearly outdid the rest of the team by themselves. Doing it this way can make your ceiling heavily reliant on what the third guy can give you: see Josh Richardon’s late emergence in Tennessee’s 2014 run. The 2007 Vols were guard dominant, still playing Dane Bradshaw post minutes while Ramar Smith was the team’s third leading scorer. And in 2011, there really wasn’t much happening behind Hopson and Harris, and little fluid offense overall beyond those two getting their own shots: Cameron Tatum was the third-leading scorer at 12.5% of the team’s points, the lowest for any third scorer on these tournament teams.

You can find the more balanced groups simply by looking at how much each team’s leading scorer contributed:

Balance

Year	Leading Scorer	% of Total Points
2014	McRae	26.2%
2007	Lofton	26.1%
2011	Hopson	24.1%
2019	Williams	22.8%
2009	T. Smith	22.2%
2006	Lofton	21.2%
2018	Williams	20.5%
2010	Chism	19.2%
2008	Lofton	18.7%
2021	Bailey	16.1%

In 2008, Tyler Smith’s arrival (and Chris Lofton’s health) made Tennessee far more diverse offensively, with great results. Tyler Smith also skews the 2010 math somewhat after being dismissed in early January, but Chism, Hopson, Prince, and Maze all ended up scoring between 14-19% of that team’s points overall, a strong sense of balance amongst that group.

Tennessee’s best offensive team walked the line between both: two years ago, Grant Williams had 22.8% of Tennessee’s points, Admiral Schofield 20%. But it was Jordan Bone’s offensive maturity – going from 9.8% of Tennessee’s points in 2018 to 16.4% in 2019, the third-leading scorer – that made a huge difference, while Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden continued to do their thing.

At the 40% mark, we shouldn’t expect these Vols to have a breakout offensive superstar. But I’m not sure we fully know what to expect beyond that, simply because we’ve never seen a Tennessee team rely on so many guys to get it done. That means one of the biggest unanswered questions is, “Who gets it done in crunch time?” Without Jaden Springer against Alabama and with John Fulkerson off the floor, Tennessee struggled. The late-game answer against Cincinnati and Arkansas was getting to the free throw line, with John Fulkerson a key component.

KenPom projects the Vols to play four one-possession games left on their schedule (at Florida, Kansas, at Kentucky, at LSU). The ebb and flow of a season suggests we’re going to see more than that in these last 14-15 games. Keep an eye on the crunch-time lineups.

The lead story should continue to be Tennessee’s defense. But the extraordinary, “It’s not about me,” balance of Tennessee’s offense is, so far, equally unheard of around here.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Texas A&M Aggies this afternoon.

Summary and Score Prediction

The good news: The Aggies give the ball away like they’re downsizing and moving to another country for the rest of their lives. Also, they’re advertising an all-you-can-eat buffet on the offensive boards on their dime, so expect Tennessee to benefit from a ton of extra opportunities through turnovers and second-chance possessions.

The bad news: Texas A&M draws fouls like roadkill draws flies. The Vols’ ability to defend without fouling has recently fallen from the lofty perch of the elite, and although they’re still very good in this regard, they’ll be challenged today. Expect more trips to the foul line than normal for the villains and hope it doesn’t matter.

Vegas has the Vols as 10.5-point favorites. With an over/under of 129.5, that puts the score at something like Tennessee 70, Texas A&M 59.

KenPom likes the Vols by 9 and puts the score at Tennessee 67, Texas A&M 58, which translates into a 78% chance of winning.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine also likes the Vols by 9 points (Tennessee 66, Texas A&M 57).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

Decided advantage for the Vols here. Tennessee is currently No. 9 in the AP Top 25, while Texas A&M is unranked. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 9, and the Aggies are No. 97.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Ags are about like the Vols here, good, but not as good as Colorado or Arkansas at hitting from the field.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Ooh. Smells bad, and that’s good. Actually, now that I’m looking at it again, that’s a disparity that involuntarily triggers a chuckle.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Vols are slightly better on the o-boards, but TAMU isn’t bad there, either.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Goodness. These guys get to the free-throw line better than all but five teams in the country.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols have a chance to shoot a better percentage from the field today than they usually do, but their shooting defense has slipped quite a bit the last couple of games. They could ratchet that back up again today against the Aggies.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Both teams are extremely good at forcing turnovers. Fortunately, Tennessee is also good at not turning the ball over, while A&M seems to have reverse magnetism in this regard.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

The Vols should be able to rack up offensive rebounds at will today. Things should be about normal on the other end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Tennessee sending opponents to the foul line has also taken a bit of a dive lately, but they’re still good at defending without fouling. They will, however, be going up against a team that absolutely excels at drawing fouls. That’s something to watch today and could well be a key to the game.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against the Arkansas Razorbacks tomorrow.

Summary and Score Prediction

Tennessee’s defense has another tough test this evening as the Hogs are one of the best-shooting teams the Vols have played this season. In fact, the whole game figures to be a defensive contest, as both teams know how to keep opposing offenses from posting good shooting percentages. Neither team turns the ball over very much, both get after the offensive boards, and the difference in getting to the foul line is marginal.

Here’s our humble suggestion on what to watch for:

1. Learn to love defense, as both the Vols and the Hogs look like they’re built to make opposing offenses look ugly.
2. With most everything else being something close to equal, the winner is likely going to have to play a clean game and make the most of any advantage. Fortunately for the Vols, their numbers suggest that a slightly better defense should be the difference in the game.

KenPom likes the Vols by 7 and puts the score at Tennessee 74, Arkansas 67, which translates into a 73% chance of winning. Vegas likes the Vols by 8.5 and puts the over/under at 141.5, so projects the score to be around 76-67, Vols.

Our new Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by only six points (Tennessee 70, Arkansas 64).

Details below.

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Baseline

Here’s what each team looks like at this point of the season.

That’s making things look pretty darn even. Tennessee is currently No. 9 in the AP Top 25, while Arkansas is receiving votes. In KenPom, the Vols are No. 8, and the Hogs are No. 40.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Arkansas is the best-shooting team the Vols have played so far this season, with the exception of Colorado.

Turnover %

Conclusion: And they are the best at protecting their possession of the ball.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: And also the best at offensive rebounding, although the Vols are even better on the o-boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: The Hogs don’t get to the free throw line nearly as often as do the Missouri Tigers, but they’re head-of-the-pack at this among teams the Vols have played this season.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Okay, so if you were frustrated by the way the Vols shot against Missouri, get ready for a possible repeat of that, as the Hogs are good at keeping opponents from sinking shots.

The Vols will return the favor on the other end of the floor. If you’re watching with someone who thinks both teams are just bad, rev up the whole “it probably has something to do with the defense, don’tcha think” conversation.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Neither team is giving up many turnovers, although Tennessee’s defense is more likely to stress Arkansas in this regard than vice versa.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Again, both teams are pulling down offensive boards at a good clip. Both respective defenses are going to make that more difficult this game, with Tennessee appearing to have a slight edge.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

The Vols aren’t terrible at getting to the foul line, but they are better at it than the Hogs. And one more time — both defenses are going to have a not insignificant impact on that. Tennessee’s defense is better at defending without fouling, though.

Go Vols.

It makes sense, especially in pandemic times, that just when you’re feeling most confident about your team, you’re brought swiftly back to earth.

Tennessee’s 71-63 loss to Alabama dropped the Vols from sixth to eighth in KenPom, though the Vols now have the best defense in the nation in those ratings thanks to an equally rough day for Texas Tech. The Crimson Tide were battle tested and loved the three, and in the second half it loved them back.

The three biggest factors in Saturday’s loss were (hopefully) varying degrees of weirdness. Let’s take them in order from most to least weird, or how much we should be worried about them showing up again in the future.

Bama shooting 10-of-20 from three

After going 2-of-9 in the first half, Alabama was a ridiculous 8-of-11 from the arc in the second half, pushing the lead to double digits quickly then never allowing the Vols to get back within less than six. How often is a shooting display like that going to happen?

The good news: not very often.

Last year only Kentucky in Knoxville hit 50% from the arc against the Vols, and that was only 5-of-10. Two years ago, we saw how dangerous any team can be when they get this hot from three, as Colgate went 15-of-29 from the arc in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Vols also survived South Carolina hitting 14-of-23 in Knoxville, but still won by scoring 85 points of their own. The Gamecocks also hit 7-of-13 in Knoxville in 2017; no team hit that high a percentage in 2018.

In general, this kind of game tends to happen only once or twice a year, unless you’re just incredibly unlucky: see Cuonzo Martin’s last team, which was really good defensively but saw NC State and Texas A&M hit 50% or better from the arc in Knoxville, then Michigan hit 11-of-20 in the Sweet 16. Overall five teams hit 50%+ against the 2014 Vols from three, helping them finish 341st in luck in KenPom.

You can tip your hat to Alabama, and hope the Vols maybe close out better in the corner going forward. But overall, this part should be more of an anomaly.

Vols missing nine free throws

Tennessee still shoots 74.7% from the line, 59th nationally. So nothing to worry about here just yet. But you only have to go back to…the previous game to find Tennessee shooting something worse than they did against Alabama at the stripe: 17-of-26 (65.4%) against the Tide, 14-of-24 (58.3%) at Missouri.

John Fulkerson was 3-of-8 against Alabama, but is still 27-of-35 on the season. Victor Bailey is 17-of-19, Santiago Vescovi 10-of-10, Josiah James 15-of-16. The biggest concerns here so far: Keon Johnson is 14-of-24, E.J. Anosike is 12-of-18.

You’re not going to shoot 75%+ every night, but other than those two guys getting better, I’m not worried here just yet.

Lineup Issues

In the first half, Jaden Springer got hurt, Yves Pons sat with two fouls, and Santiago Vescovi picked up his second (and eventually a Rick Barnes technical) with four minutes to play. Tennessee led 26-23 at that point. UT’s offensive possessions in those last four minutes went:

• Keon Johnson missed front end of one-and-one
• Drew Pember turnover after two offensive rebounds
• Drew Pember missed layup
• John Fulkerson hits 1-of-2 free throws
• Victor Bailey made jumper
• Rick Barnes deadball technical
• Keon Johnson missed layup

The Vols went into the locker room trailing 31-29. More unusual lineups ensued when Barnes benched Fulkerson for the final eight minutes, sticking with Vescovi, Bailey, Johnson, James, and Pons. That group was down by nine at the under eight timeout, and lost by eight, never getting closer than six. They outscored Alabama only 9-8 in those final eight minutes, with two of those Bama points on late fouls: good defensively, but inefficient offensively.

Overall, Tennessee’s scoring remains incredibly balanced with seven players between 8-13 points per game. But if you take it per minute, Tennessee’s most efficient scoring options look like this:

• Jaden Springer 22.8 points per 40 minutes
• Victor Bailey 19.9
• John Fulkerson 16.6
• Keon Johnson 16.2

Without Springer and Fulkerson down the stretch, the Vols looked like they lacked an identity offensively in crunch time. When things were tight against Cincinnati, it was Fulkerson drawing fouls (and hitting free throws) that pushed the Vols back in front, followed by a big shot from Pons. Down the stretch, there was a lot of one-on-one stuff from Bailey and Johnson, but it wasn’t enough.

In good news/bad news, Arkansas will provide a similar challenge on Wednesday: they love to go fast and shoot threes, and they join Missouri and Alabama as the kind of team Tennessee might see in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. We’ll see if Jaden Springer can go and how much Fulkerson plays; I bet Arkansas shoots less than 50% from the arc and the Vols miss fewer than nine free throws. But the lineup stuff will be most intriguing, even if the Vols don’t need a bucket down the stretch.