What is the Four Factors Gameplan?

If you’re a regular here, you know that we often post a Four Factors Gameplan in advance of men’s basketball games. But why?

If you’re not familiar with the “four factors,” it’s essentially an analytical framework that boils the game of basketball down to four key categories:

  1. Shooting
  2. Turnovers
  3. Offensive Rebounding
  4. Getting to the foul line

Of these, shooting matters the most by far and is defined as a formula that results in a number known as effective field goal percentage. The remaining categories are in order of importance, but are only marginally more important than the one below them and are all much less important than shooting. That’s quite a dramatic oversimplification, so if you want the full explanation, check out the Dean Oliver four factors page. Even KenPom uses these four factors.

What’s in a Four Factors Gameplan?

A Four Factors Gameplan starts with a baseline of how each team is currently doing in the regular stats that relate most closely to the four-factors. These are field goal shooting percentage, three-point shooting percentage, turnovers per game, offensive rebounds per game, and free throw attempts per game. We also add in defensive rebounds per game for flavor and defensive shooting percentages when available and when we’ve had enough coffee.

After that, we’ll look at each of the four factors by ranking all of Tennessee’s prior opponents in each category and then adding the next opponent to see which prior opponent they are most like in that category. We add the Vols just to see how they compare to the upcoming opponent.

After that, we’ll compare Tennessee’s offensive four-factors numbers to the opponent’s defensive four-factors numbers in an attempt to determine whether any facet of the game might be more important than usual. From that, we’ll develop a one-paragraph summary of what to watch for and our own gameplan.

Often one or both of the teams will do something completely out of character and none of it will matter, but more often it turns out to be a fairly accurate forecast of how things end up playing out.

Magic Numbers: Free Throws and Turnovers

I don’t think the highs and lows quite qualify as a roller coaster, but Tennessee’s basketball season is definitely on a winding road. The hope, of course, is that this thing is still going up the mountain: the Vols were the 11th-best team in college basketball in the eyes of the selection committee on Saturday, before the loss to LSU. That followed a pair of statement wins over Kansas and at Kentucky the previous two Saturdays. It remains incredibly important this year to earn at least a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, ensuring you avoid Gonzaga and Baylor until at least the Elite Eight. The Zags, in particular, would now be at least an eight-point favorite over any team in the nation that isn’t Baylor via KenPom. And Baylor would be at least -5.5 on the non-Gonzaga field.

Despite what those two are accomplishing, inconsistency is still generally the theme. It comes with covid, and it comes with freshmen, though Tennessee’s most recent struggles have come from everyone else’s contributions while Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer move to the front. The Vols also have health issues, as Yves Pons was clearly at less than 100% at LSU and UT’s defense suffered for it.

Still, the Vols are third nationally in KenPom defense, and the schedule should provide some opportunity for retooling. A second date with Florida needs to be rescheduled, but the Gators represent the only NCAA Tournament team left on Tennessee’s schedule. The Vols’ five SEC losses – all Quad 1 – currently leave them in fifth place in the league, but KenPom projects them to fall just once more, with six losses good enough to finish tied for second.

The schedule should help. How can the Vols help themselves?

The good news: I don’t think we’re far away, and I don’t think we’re done getting better.

Points

  • When UT scores 65 or fewer points: 3-5
  • When UT scores 66+ points: 11-0

Offense is definitely the greater challenge, and while the freshmen have been good, this is still a work in progress. But when your defense is this good, this is the simplest way to explain it: so far, when the Vols score 66 points, they win.

Early on, Tennessee was able to beat Colorado (now #14 KenPom!) with just 56 points. That’s also how the Vols escaped against Mississippi State.

This number won’t do it alone: in four of Tennessee’s five losses, 66 points wouldn’t have been enough. Alabama, Florida, Missouri, and LSU all scored in the 70s. But it’s a good starting point for success. And what’s been the most effective way the Vols have scored points?

Free Throws

  • When UT shoots 65% or less at the line: 1-4
  • When UT shoots 66% or better at the line: 13-1

Tennessee leads the SEC in free throw rate. The freshmen both excel at drawing contact, and it’s still one of John Fulkerson’s real strengths as well. Throughout the year, getting to the line has been the steadying play for a struggling offense.

But you have to make them when you get there. In losses:

  • Alabama: 17-of-26 (65.4%)
  • Florida: 12-of-25 (48%)
  • Missouri: 13-of-21 (61.9%)
  • Ole Miss: 10-of-16 (62.5%)
  • LSU: 13-of-17 (76.5%)

So not the problem on the Bayou, but problematic everywhere else in defeat. I’m sure there’s a confidence factor that comes into play here too. The freshmen are the team’s best at getting to the line, but the worst among regular contributors once there: Springer is okay at 75%, but Johnson just 68.9%.

In part, I think what happened at LSU is you had a physical game with few whistles. That’ll happen again. The Vols have to figure out how to respond when they can’t get it at the line, and will continue to be vulnerable if they don’t take advantage when there.

If you really want to lean into the team’s strengths:

Forcing Turnovers

  • When UT’s opponent has 13 or fewer turnovers: 3-4
  • When UT’s opponent has 14+ turnovers: 11-1

Just as getting to the line is the strength of the offense, turning it over continues to be the strength of the defense. The Vols are 18th nationally and second in the SEC in turnover rate, getting one on 23.1% of opponent possessions. The Vols can win without it: Kansas had a season-low seven turnovers and got waxed. The Ole Miss game continues to go in the weird category, the exception to the 14+ rule with 17 from the Rebels in their win.

But the others, all NCAA Tournament teams, had between 10-13 turnovers against the Vols. That jumps out to me, and can jump-start Tennessee’s offense if the Vols can get that going again.

When the Vols force turnovers, getting to 66 points shouldn’t be a problem because they generate offense, and 66 points should be enough. When it’s not, Tennessee needs to clean up its free throw shooting. Beyond that, there’s still plenty of room for offensive improvement. There’s also the notion that shots will still fall: for what it’s worth, Shot Quality has the Vols shooting 3.4% under their expected average from three, second-highest among ranked teams. That means a Tennessee team shooting 34% from the arc is getting good enough looks to be shooting 37%.

Maybe something like that will come around, maybe not. But if the Vols continue to force turnovers and clean it up at the line, Tennessee will create plenty of opportunities for themselves.

Does the difference between a 1-seed and a 2-seed matter?

Is your favorite men’s college basketball team in contention for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament? Are you guarding your sanity by telling yourself that it really doesn’t matter if your team gets a 1-seed or a 2-seed? Well, go ahead and fret, friend, because it does matter.

Before we get into why the difference matters, I have to first speak some truth into your life with love: If you’re relying on the AP and Coaches Polls to determine where your team is going to be seeded come Tournament time, you’re doing it wrong. The media and coaches polls matter as much to college basketball as the points in Whose Line is it Anyway. Not only do they have zero impact on the crowning of the national champion, they’re not even considered by the all-important folks sending out the save-the-dates come March.

Nope. The only thing that matters in college basketball is getting into the Big Dance and getting a cushy spot in the bracket. And that’s not determined by the polls, but by the Selection Committee and the NET Rankings.

Do 1-seeds do any better in the Tournament than 2-seeds?

So how important is it for fans to root for a No. 1 seed?

Pretty important, as it turns out. Here’s a look at the seeds of the winners, the runners-up, and other Final Four participants since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

And here’s how all of that data breaks down into categories:

Whoa. A full 63% of the winners were No. 1 seeds, and there’s a huge drop off for 2-seeds, who won the whole enchilada only 14% of the time. The advantage of seeding for the rest of the Final Four field isn’t quite as pronounced, but it’s there, and it’s significant.

Sure, every once in a while some 11-seed will crash the party with a scrappy nun in tow and scare the pants off everybody, but usually, the final weekend features the No Surprises All-Star team. And more often than not, the team cutting down the net in April is one that was sitting pretty on the top line on Selection Sunday.

Tennessee-LSU Four Factors Forecast: Too close to call

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against LSU tomorrow.

What to Watch

Challenges: LSU shoots as well as anybody the Vols have played, they don’t turn the ball over much, and they look like an even matchup on the offensive glass and at getting to the free throw line.

Happy thoughts: When you factor in the teams’ respective defenses, Tennessee does appear to have an advantage in most of the Four Factors categories, although each of those apparent advantages is pretty slight.

Score Prediction

The line isn’t out yet, but KemPom’s projection is Tennessee 74, LSU 73), which equates to a 54% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine is more optimistic, liking the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 78, LSU 70) with 10 comps and by 6 with all comps (Tennessee 83, LSU 77).

Details below.


Baseline

Current numbers:

So that looks pretty even, except that their shooting offense is slightly better and Tennessee’s defense is quite a bit better.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: These guys shoot even better than Georgia. Basically, they’re tied with the best-shooting team that Tennessee has played so far this season in Florida, to whom they lost.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Okay, so they don’t turn the ball over, either.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: This basically amounts to decent on the offensive glass. Essentially the same as Florida and Tennessee.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Well, crud. These guys are good across the board, including at getting to the free throw line. Let’s see what adding in the respective defenses does to the analysis.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The shooting analysis is essentially the same as it was for the Georgia game except that LSU is even better on both ends. The Vols should be able to have a decent afternoon shooting the ball, and they’re going to need that spectacular defense because LSU is a real threat to shoot well and put up points. The Vols do appear to be the better team in this category, but the difference isn’t nearly as pronounced as it has been for most previews.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Ugh, all of this stuff is way too close. What those numbers don’t know is that the book is out on the Vols, and opponents can crank up those turnovers numbers just by pressuring our ball handlers. The only possible solution to that I can think of is to try to get the ball to Keon and let him dribble around the traps as they’re coming and before they get there.

To make matters worse, LSU’s offense isn’t nearly as generous as Georgia’s. As with shooting, the Vols do appear to be the better team, but not by much.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This could be an opportunity for the Vols. They are decent on the offensive glass, but LSU’s defensive rebounding isn’t up to the same standard as the rest of their game. On the other end, LSU has a similar advantage, but it is not as pronounced.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Ugh again, too close to call for Tennessee getting to the line, and LSU could make some hay there.

Go Vols.

SEC Teams on the NCAA Seed Line

The committee will reveal their Top 16 this Saturday (12:30 PM CBS), a month and a day from Selection Sunday. As Wayne Staats points out, the original grouping usually holds up, for the most part. In 2018 the Vols were the top #4 seed in the first reveal, and ended up earning a #3 seed. In 2019 the Vols were the second #1 seed in the first reveal, and ended up just missing the top line as the top #2 seed.

With no geography involved this year, the individual team rankings will matter much more in the bracket (as in, the top #1 seed should be grouped with the bottom #2 seed, etc., with a few exceptions to keep the best teams from the same conferences separate). And for those dreaming of deep tournament runs, nothing matters more in 2021 than this: stay away from Gonzaga and Baylor.

The Zags and Bears are currently at least seven-point favorites against anyone else via KenPom; they’d be 12 point favorites against Tennessee. Earlier this year we talked about the value of earning one of the other #1 seeds to ensure you stayed away from those two. But as the Vols are looking to advance to just their second Elite Eight (and potentially the first Final Four), there’s still extreme value in staying off the #4 line, ensuring you wouldn’t see either of those two until at least the Elite Eight. If you get lucky and are placed in one of the other “regions”, great. But if not, at least you make some history before getting the chance to make even more against those two.

Outside the Zags and Bears, we expect the Top 16 to be dominated by the Big 10 & 12. Villanova and Houston would certainly have compelling cases, as does Virginia as the best of the ACC.

But the SEC is also making a strong case with its top three teams. In yesterday’s Bracket Matrix, Alabama was a #2 seed, with Missouri and Tennessee at #3. And in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology, the Vols and Tide are both on the #2 line, with Missouri at #5. And those three teams are finished playing each other in the regular season.

Getting three teams in the Top 16 on Selection Sunday would be a major win for the SEC, especially with no Kentucky in the mix. How far has the league come? Since expansion to 14 teams nearly ten years ago now, here’s how often the SEC has placed teams on the Top 4 lines in the NCAA Tournmament:

  • 2013: Florida (3)
  • 2014: Florida (1)
  • 2015: Kentucky (1)
  • 2016: Texas A&M (3), Kentucky (4)
  • 2017: Kentucky (2), Florida (4)
  • 2018: Tennessee (3), Auburn (4)
  • 2019: Tennessee (2), Kentucky (2), LSU (3)

In fact, in the last played tournament two years ago, Auburn and Mississippi State just missed the Top 16, both on the #5 line.

While Arkansas and LSU try to stay on the right side of the bubble, don’t discount Florida either: the Gators are currently a #7 seed in the Bracket Matrix, but have games left with Arkansas, Missouri and, if rescheduled, Tennessee. The league should be able to get six teams in the field, but the three (maybe four) teams at the top can be about as good a group as we’ve seen since expansion. The league continues to trend in the right direction in basketball, and Tennessee continues to be a big part of it. Getting to a #3 seed or higher means your season doesn’t end via Gonzaga or Baylor without making some history first. And with Saturday’s performance still fresh in our minds, Tennessee’s expanding ceiling suggests they’ll very much belong in the Top 16.

Tennessee-Georgia Four Factors Forecast: Buckets, steals, and o-boards

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Georgia tonight.

What to Watch

Challenges: The Bulldogs tend to hit a high percentage of their shots. In addition, they are exceptional on the offensive glass, and they know how to create chaos by forcing turnovers.

Happy thoughts: Although they’re generally active in the thievery trade, the Bulldogs must have a guilty conscience or something, because whatever they steal, they tend to give back with interest. Also, Georgia’s less-than-stellar defense should mean a decent shooting night for a Tennessee team still lacking consistency in that department.

Score Prediction

Vegas has Tennessee as a 12.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 140.5, a score prediction of something like Tennessee 76, Georgia 64.

KemPom’s projection is exactly that (Tennessee 76, Georgia 64), which equates to an 87% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 10 (Tennessee 75, Georgia 65) with 10 comps. Using all games as comps, it predicts a higher-scoring game and a bigger margin for the Vols: Tennessee 84, Georgia 71.

Details below.


Baseline

Current numbers:

Hmm. These guys can shoot, and they get a fair amount of offensive rebounds. They don’t really defend very well, though, and they like to give the ball away.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Like I said, these guys can shoot. They’re not quite up to the standard of Colorado and Florida, but they lead the pack of Vanderbilt, Alabama (gulp), Arkansas, and Missouri.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Free turnovers!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Ugh. Elite-level offensive rebounding for the Bulldogs. Our hearts don’t generally get pierced by o-boards (but see Ole Miss), but that’s something to watch for sure.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Okay, not bad. Among prior Vols’ opponents, Georgia is most like Vanderbilt and Ole Miss at getting to the line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols sometimes shoot well and sometimes don’t. Fortunately, Georgia’s defense should pave the way for a “sometimes shoot well” night.

On the other end, the Bulldogs usually shoot pretty well, but will be going up against an octopus with boa constrictors for appendages, so it could be tougher sledding than usual. Yes, that sentence includes a sea creature, a snake from the American West, and the elements and transportation indigenous to Anchorage. You’re welcome.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Well, shoot. The Bulldogs know how to force turnovers, too. Let’s just give the ball to each other and see who wins!

Fortunately, Georgia’s offense is much more generous than the Vols’. The odd thing is that the Bulldogs go to all that trouble to pull off a spree of exceptional heists but then just leave the valuables on the front lawn at night. But we’ll take it.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Ooh, look at all of those second chances for both teams.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Advantage, Tennessee, although the Vols are fouling much more now than they were earlier in the season.

Go Vols.

Tennessee 82 Kentucky 71: The Ceiling

Tonight was 20 minutes of everything you hate about Rupp Arena, then eight minutes of a really good basketball game, then 12 minutes of absolute joy.

If you watched, you don’t need much analysis on the foul situation early. Six Tennessee players had two fouls in the first half, including John Fulkerson in less than three minutes. Kentucky shot 13-of-15 at the line by halftime and built a 42-34 lead, the most points any team scored on the nation’s number one defense in any half this year. Different Rupp, same -erees.

Which just made it all the more fun to win anyway.

The Vols and Cats traded blows to open the second half, with what felt like a thousand possessions where one team would score and the other answered immediately. This time Tennessee found its way to the bonus early, but was still down 10 with 12 minutes to go. It seemed like the game had settled into a really nice flow.

And then it became one-way traffic.

Down ten with 12 to play, the Vols tied it up in less than three minutes. Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer hit four free throws around a score from Keon, then Yves Pons scored twice inside to tie it.

Keon again gave Tennessee the lead, then that really good basketball game broke out again for a minute. Kentucky scored four straight to retake the lead, then Keon Johnson did this:

He tried it again a minute later in a tie game, but was rejected on a sensational play by Davion Mintz. No worries: right back to Keon, who was fouled again, and knocked down two to put the Vols back in front 66-64 with 6:27 to play.

They wouldn’t trail again.

In a role reversal from Tuesday night in Oxford, Kentucky’s guards turned it over on consecutive possessions, and Tennessee suddenly had a six point lead. And with so much talk about the offense tonight – rightfully so – Tennessee’s defense kept Kentucky on 64 points for more than four minutes down the stretch. When the Cats cut it to eight with 1:54 to go, the Vols drained the shot clock, and Keon Johnson found Santiago Vescovi, who buried a three.

If you didn’t see it, just watch the last 12 minutes on a loop. From down 58-48 at that point, Tennessee closed on a 34-13 run to win by 11.

And if you didn’t see it, I’m not sure my or anyone’s words could do justice to what we saw from the freshmen tonight.

Fulkerson played less than three minutes in the first half and ten in the game with four fouls. He didn’t score, though he got plenty at Rupp last year. Vescovi’s dagger three? His only points. Yves, who hit those two big shots inside to bring it back even at the seven minute mark? Those were four of his six points.

Credit Victor Bailey for hitting enough shots to prevent a rout in the first half, where Tennessee also got some quality minutes from E.J. Anosike and Uros Plavsic. Credit Josiah-Jordan James for his first double-double, 10 points and 10 boards.

And when you envisioned what two five stars might do in the lineup at the same time? Tonight was that night.

After Pons scored back-to-back to tie it at 58-58, Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer scored Tennessee’s next 18 points. That’s everything from tie game to Vescovi’s dagger.

Jaden Springer had 23 points, five rebounds, and three blocks. Keon Johnson had 27 points, four rebounds, and three assists. Springer hit one three. Keon didn’t hit any. Go to the rim, baby. (And hit free throws, where a sometimes unsteady Keon hit 9-of-11.)

I said earlier I didn’t think anything about the Ole Miss loss changed my view of Tennessee’s ceiling, though it certainly made me look twice at the floor.

This tonight was a ceiling win.

There are seven games left (eight if they reschedule South Carolina), and if they’re over their own covid issues, Florida will present an immediate second opinion Wednesday night in Knoxville. There’s still more to see. But if what Tennessee got from its freshmen tonight can be duplicated, that ceiling might need some work. And if those freshmen become reliable first and second options, it might also help John Fulkerson’s game re-establish itself.

There’s more to watch, but tonight might’ve been the only chance to see Johnson and Springer at Rupp Arena. If so, “Remember that time those two freshmen had their coming out party?” goes right alongside, “Remember that time Fulkerson scored 27 up there?” Because now, after winning four times in Lexington in the first 40 years of Rupp Arena, the Vols have won three of the last four. And Rick Barnes is 8-5 against Kentucky at Tennessee.

It’s a weird year, new football coach, basketball team lost more games than you thought they might’ve to this point. But you don’t miss any chance to celebrate beating Kentucky. Once upon a time, in many of our lifetimes, we beat Alabama seven years in a row in football. This, in my lifetime, is as good as it’s every been against our biggest rival in basketball. Don’t miss it. Don’t waste it. Celebrate it, and then let’s get them again two weeks from today.

And that ceiling…you might want to look again.

Go Vols.

Looking for Consistency in Lexington

What we’re seeing from Tennessee right now is something we might’ve predicted at the start of the season, but a 10-1 flurry with the lone loss to hot-shooting Alabama made us believers in something more. Our program has little experience playing multiple freshmen heavy minutes, and mostly zero when two potential first round picks are asked to carry this kind of load offensively.

Rick Barnes probably knows what to expect in this situation from Texas. When his Longhorns asked big things from multiple freshmen, they tended to hit speed bumps along the way:

  • 2014 (Isaiah Taylor, Martez Walker): Started 20-5, finished 3-6. Lost in the second round as a 7 seed to 2 seed Michigan.
  • 2011 (Cory Joseph, Tristan Thompson): Started 23-3, finished 4-4. Lost by one point in the second round as a 4 seed to 5 seed Arizona.
  • 2010 (J’Covan Brown, Avery Bradley, Jordan Hamilton): Started 17-0, finished 7-9. Lost in overtime in the first round as an 8 seed.
  • 2007 (Kevin Durant, D.J. Augustin, Damion James, Justin Mason): Started 13-3, finished 11-6. Lost in the second round as a 4 seed to 5 seed USC.

Obviously there’s no Kevin Durant on this team, but that’s the kind of “inconsistency” you’d like to see: maybe not going to rampage through the regular season the way you thought they would early, but still plenty of big wins along the way so there’s not a before/after or, “And then they hit the wall,” moment.

What we hoped the Vols would have sorted out by the time they hit mid-January has carried through the most challenging part of their schedule into February. I don’t think Tennessee or its freshmen have hit any kind of wall – recall the 19-point win over Kansas six days ago – but they’re also clearly not done figuring themselves out, especially as more is being asked from the freshmen. Consistency is the current challenge.

The loss at Ole Miss didn’t do much to change my thoughts on Tennessee’s ceiling: the Vols played quite poorly down the stretch on offense, had an unusually high number of turnovers, and credit Ole Miss for hitting some big shots. A close road loss like that didn’t ding the Vols much in the advanced metrics. But it is the first time Tennessee lost to anything other than a really good team, which at least makes you wonder about Tennessee’s floor.

Via KenPom, the Vols are still the best defensive team in the nation, and school history. That part hasn’t suffered in these losses. But if Tennessee runs into an on-fire opponent (Alabama) or scores 49 (Florida) or 50 (Ole Miss) points on its own end, the Vols are clearly vulnerable. And the Rebels getting it done shows that vulnerability can be present before we get to the second weekend of the tournament.

In Oxford, Keon Johnson’s 27 minutes were the most he’s played in a game that Jaden Springer finished, and Springer’s 31 were a season high. All of Tennessee’s previous losses came when Springer was hurt, then Tuesday night he had his worst outing of the year: 1-of-7, 0-of-2 at the line, three turnovers, two points. That’ll happen to freshmen; let’s see a little more data with both of those guys playing big minutes, but it’s another argument for how valuable their ability to get their own shots and empower Tennessee’s offense is.

Speaking of vulnerability, tomorrow night it’s Rupp Arena. Kentucky is 5-11 (4-5) and has lost at home to Richmond, Notre Dame, and Alabama this year. In addition to the usual, the Cats make me nervous because they’re 352nd nationally in KenPom’s luck ratings: some of their losses have come from teams shooting wildly higher percentages than they’re accustomed to. It’s super frustrating to be a fan of one of these “bad luck” teams (see Cuonzo’s 2014 squad, 341st in luck), but they’re also the kind of teams that can still blow you out of the water when things do start falling their way (see also Cuonzo’s 2014 squad).

You’ll want to watch the whistles in this one, but where Tennessee is most likely to thrive is via turnovers: the Cats’ young guards have struggled mightily at times here, Tennessee’s defense is one of the best in the land at it, and Kentucky’s defense doesn’t force many on the other end.

And, of course, it’s Rupp. Tennessee’s thrilling come-from-behind win there last year lost some of its luster because it happened on March 3, and we stopped playing sports altogether ten days later. But if the Vols win tomorrow, it’ll be three wins in four years in Lexington. From 1977-2017, the Vols won there four times. And in this case, a W would make it four-of-five against Kentucky overall.

You throw a lot out this year with the pandemic, making it harder to understand both Kentucky’s struggles and Tennessee’s quest for consistency. Alabama is running away with the regular season league title and on track to earn their own one seed. From there, the Vols are one of five teams (Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Missouri) projected to finish with six or seven SEC losses via KenPom. Two of those teams won’t earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament. But that crowded field is also establishing itself well in the NCAA Tournament:

The league’s top tier is still quite strong, and Tennessee is right in the thick of it. And the long game in college basketball this year is still about Gonzaga, Baylor, then everybody else. So there is extreme value in earning at least a three seed, meaning you wouldn’t see either of those teams until the Elite Eight at the earliest.

In some ways, we’ll still measure Tennessee by what they do against Kentucky, with a chance to make the kind of history at Rupp Arena that would’ve seemed absurd just four years ago. Overall, Tennessee is looking for more consistency, which means we won’t get all the answers tomorrow night. But if we get enough to beat Kentucky again, all will be quite well once more.

Saturday, 8:00 PM, ESPN. Go Vols.

Tennessee-Ole Miss Four Factors Forecast: Imposed futility and dueling pickpockets

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Ole Miss tonight.

What to Watch

Happy thoughts: The Rebels haven’t shot particularly well over the course of the season, and the Vols’ shooting defense has the potential to make them look downright silly this evening. Combine that with a posse of elite-level burglars and an advantage at getting to the free throw line, and Tennessee should get what they want tonight.

Challenges: But the Rebs are a rival gang of elite burglars themselves, and they appear to have an advantage on the offensive glass as well, so this is a no-coasting zone for the Vols.

Score Prediction

Vegas has Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 124.5, a score prediction of something like Tennessee 64, Ole Miss 60.

KemPom projects a 5-point win for the Vols (Tennessee 63, Ole Miss 58), which equates to a 64% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine is slightly more optimistic, liking the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 69, Ole Miss 61). The Vols are scoring 111% of what their opponents usually allow, and allowing only 87% of what their opponents usually get.

Details below.


Baseline

Current numbers:

Tennessee looks better across the board, with the exception of offensive rebounds. That one is close enough to essentially be a push.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among prior Vols’ opponents, Ole Miss looks most like Tennessee Tech and Cincinnati in effective field goal shooting percentage.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Most like Florida and Mississippi State here.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Hmm. Another very good offensive rebounding team. Most like Arkansas. The good news is that among other good offensive rebounding teams, only Florida has resulted in a loss, and that may have been for other reasons.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Most like App State at getting to the free throw line, and not as good as the Vols.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

The Vols dropped shots against Kansas, but it’s going to take several games like that to erase a season’s worth of shooting woes. Ole Miss’ defense shouldn’t make progress in that department too difficult this evening.

On the other end, not only do the Rebels shoot poorly, the Vols’ defense has the very real potential to make them look downright silly.

https://giphy.com/gifs/baby-funny-11PVuEm7Osdjoc

Turnover %

Conclusions

Hey, look. It’s Ocean’s 11 versus the Night Fox. We shall see about that, especially since we have our stuff locked up a little tighter than do the Rebs.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Okay, a possible slight advantage here for Ole Miss. Both teams are decent on the offensive glass, but the Rebels are slightly better, and the teams look pretty much the same on the defensive end.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Advantage, Tennessee.

Go Vols.

How common was this kind of beat down?

When the Vols put it on Kansas Saturday evening, one of my first thoughts was, “Man, when’s the last time we blew out a good team like this?” When the name of the front of the jersey says KANSAS, it feels like it’s worth a little more. But the answer to that question is probably, “A month ago.”

Tennessee now has a pair of Top 15 wins and a pair of Top 15 blowouts: 73-53 over #12 Missouri on December 30, 80-61 over #15 Kansas on January 30. So if it’s happened twice in 30 days, it must happen all the time right?

Nope.

The 2019 Vols did put it on #4 Kentucky in Knoxville by 19 after they had it done to them in Lexington by 17. Going back to what we think of as Tennessee’s current run of basketball success (Pearl-Barnes), how many times have the Vols beaten a Top 15 opponent by 15+ points in those last 15 years?

In flipping through the media guide, it’s those three games in the last three years, and only once more…which also involved Rick Barnes! In Bruce Pearl’s first season, the Vols went to #6 Texas and shockingly won by 17.

And that’s it. That’s the list.

15+ point wins over Top 15 teams in the last 15 years

  • 2006: Tennessee 95 #6 Texas 78
  • 2019: #7 Tennessee 71 #4 Kentucky 52
  • 2021: #7 Tennessee 73 #12 Missouri 53
  • 2021: #18 Tennessee 80 #15 Kansas 61

Before Pearl’s stunning victory in Austin, you have to go back to Jerry Green’s 2000 SEC Championship team blowing out #7 Auburn by 29. Before then, the next one I can find is from 1982.

The performance in Gainesville made us feel the floor a little bit, for sure. But those two wins over Kansas and Missouri are fairly high ceilings. I still think Kansas was a bit underrated coming in, victimized by a Big 12 schedule we’re used to them dominating. And while some may have written off Missouri after the game in Columbia, their performance in Knoxville (and otherwise) since then has kept them in the national conversation. There are, in fact, a quartet of SEC teams in today’s AP poll: #10 Alabama, #11 Tennessee, #18 Missouri, and #22 Florida. That means more opportunities to figure out what the Vols are made of in a conference that’s solidifying itself in the bracket.

Long way to go this year, and maybe another pendulum swing or two. But Tennessee’s best this year has been up there with just about anything we’ve seen before, and credit Rick Barnes for getting the best out of his teams against the best competition.