Gameday on Rocky Top

[UPDATE 3.14.21] We’ve updated this post following Thursday’s action. A coin flip between Kentucky and Mississippi State went the other way by a point, but changes nothing about the remaining projections.

[UPDATE 3.13.21] And now we’ve updated following Friday’s action. No surprises Friday (except for a sucker elbow or two), so we’re still pinning our hopes on a probably-undermanned Vols team pulling an even bigger upset Saturday afternoon against a rolling Alabama squad.

[UPDATE 3.14.21] The Vols lost their opportunity to upset Alabama Saturday, and so won’t get a chance against LSU today. Shame, too, as the machine would have liked them to win that one. As it is, it’s predicting Alabama to beat LSU for the tournament championship in addition to the regular season championship.

For you busy types: The most likely path for the Vols to win the SEC Tournament this week would be to win the games they should be favored to win, win as a slight underdog to Alabama, and have Arkansas lose to a slight underdog in Missouri on the other side of the bracket.

Now for those of you holding warm cups of coffee:

We haven’t been publishing the results of the GRT Hoops Statsy Preview Machine this season because it’s still an angsty teenager. It has real promise, but it’s still in that frightening stage where it will make you beam with parental pride one minute and squirt zit juice onto the mirror the next.

Since I started tracking it back in early January, the machine has projected the correct winner about 69% of the time. That may sound low until you realize that literally hundreds of games are decided by a single possession. Against the spread, the machine currently at 52.8%. When its projection deviates from the Vegas spread by at least 9 points, it’s 55.99%, and when it deviates by at least 20, it’s 73.91%. Unlike in football, there does not appear to be a “sweet spot,” meaning it’s results get better as its projections get further away from the Vegas spreads. I’ve been tracking the results of the machine based on the two best comps, the five best comps, the 10 best comps, and all comps and found that the 10 best comps version almost always gets the best results. In some cases, all comps is slightly better. What I haven’t been able to track yet is what happens if it only uses the 10 most recent comps. I suspect that will improve the results, but it’s yet to be tested.

So, take all of that for what it’s worth, but I’ve run the SEC men’s basketball bracket through the machine to see what it thinks. The results are below and point to a path where Tennessee could hoist the trophy on Sunday. For easy reference, here’s the 2020-21 SEC men’s basketball tournament bracket with all of the tip times and broadcasts.

Wednesday, March 10

VU 79 TAM 68	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %	Result
12 Vanderbilt	13 Texas A&M	Vanderbilt	52.8%	VU 79 TAM 68

[UPDATE: 3.11.21] So far, so good.

Thursday, March 11

OM 76 SC 59	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %	Result
8 Kentucky	9 Mississippi State	Kentucky	51.9%	MSU 74 KY 73
5 Florida	12 Vanderbilt	Florida	75.1%	FL 69 VU 63
7 Missouri	10 Georgia	Missouri	75.1%	MO 73 GA 70
6 Ole Miss	11 South Carolina	Ole Miss	86.7%	OM 76 SC 59

The odds are pretty good that the chalk holds today, although it looks like that 8 vs. 9 matchup between Kentucky and Mississippi State could really go either way. Sounds funky, right? But the Wildcats needed double overtime to beat the Bulldogs back on January 2, so maybe it’s not so weird. But wait, haven’t they gotten a lot better since New Year’s? I suppose, but they are still 4-5 since February and 1-2 in their last three outings.

[UPDATE: 3.12.21] Yep, the Kentucky-Mississippi State game was basically a toss-up, as the Bulldogs won by a single point. With the exception of being just on the other side of that coin-flip, the machine earns a pat on the back for this day.

Friday, March 12

LSU 76 OM 73	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %	Result
1 Alabama	8 Kentucky	Alabama	76.9%
1 Alabama	9 Mississippi State	Alabama	76.9%	AL 85 MSU 48
4 Tennessee	5 Florida	Tennessee	61.5%	TN 78 FL 66
2 Arkansas	7 Missouri	Arkansas	61.5%	AR 70 MO 64
3 LSU	6 Ole Miss	LSU	71.5%	LSU 76 OM 73

It’s chalk all day long on Friday, although Tennessee looks vulnerable to me just because no number is trustworthy when it comes to the Vols this season.

Surprisingly, Arkansas may also be somewhat vulnerable to Missouri Friday afternoon. The Hogs have been rolling (do Hogs roll?) as of late, but most of their February win streak has come against unranked teams (with the notable exception of No. 6 Alabama.) Also, Arkansas needed overtime to beat Missouri on February 13. So watch that one. It could have important implications for Sunday.

[UPDATE 3.12.21] Mississippi State beating Kentucky by one point on Thursday changes nothing but the names going forward.

[UPDATE 3.13.21] Yep, chalk all day long Friday. Missouri was unable to pull off the upset against the Hogs, much to our distress. But we’ll worry about that if we are able to get past Alabama at 1:00 Saturday on ESPN.

Saturday, March 13

AL 73 TN 68	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %	Result
1 Alabama	4 Tennessee	Alabama	55.6%	AL 73 TN 68
2 Arkansas	3 LSU	Arkansas	71.5%	LSU 78 AR 71

This is where the numbers say Tennessee bows out, but they’re not especially confident about it. Like every game since mid-January, it all depends on which Vols team shows up. They’re only a slight underdog, and if it’s the right team at the right time, this is where they could get over the hump.

[UPDATE 3.13.31] This morning, the machine likes the Vols less than it did when the original predictions were made Thursday morning. It currently has Alabama winning by 6 and giving them a 72% chance of winning. Vegas, however, is slightly more optimistic, putting the line at Alabama -4.5, a 66% chance of winning. We’ll see. Fulkerson is doubtful.

[UPDATE 3.14.21] Tennessee looked like they might get it done against favorite Alabama Saturday, but alas, the Tide caught up and did the good guys in. LSU did pull off the upset against the Hogs, though, so that’s the first real miss for the machine in the tournament.

Sunday, March 14

Higher Seed	Lower Seed	Projected Winner	Win %
1 Alabama	2 Arkansas	Arkansas	55.7%
1 Alabama	3 LSU	Alabama	77%

Assuming this is the championship matchup, it should be a good one. Our machine likes the underdog to win a close one.

[UPDATE 3.14.21] Although the machine liked 2 seed Arkansas over 1 seed Alabama, it does not like 3 seed LSU over the Tide at all. We’ll see.

What ifs

[UPDATE 3.14.21] With the lost opportunity against Alabama Saturday, there are no more what ifs for the Vols. I’ve left everything below for the record.

What if Tennessee gets past Alabama on Saturday and meets Arkansas on Sunday? The Hogs would have a 71.5% chance of winning that one, according to our machine. Bad news.

Okay, but what if Tennessee makes it to Sunday and meets a Missouri team that knocked out Arkansas on Friday? That, my friends, would give the Vols their own 71.5% chance of winning. Good news.

And what if it’s LSU representing the other side of the bracket on Sunday? Tennessee would have a 55.6% chance of winning. Maybe kinda good news?

So . . . anything can happen, of course, but the path with the fewest thistles and snakes appears to be the following:

• Tennessee beats Florida Friday, wins as a slight underdog to Alabama on Saturday, and advances to Sunday.
• Meanwhile, Missouri knocks Arkansas out Friday, and either Missouri or LSU make it to Sunday.

As long Arkansas does not emerge from the other side of the bracket, the Vols would only need to win one game as a slight underdog.

Go Vols.

Two days off a huge Senior Day win over Florida, and one year removed from everything being shut down…this is a good week in Big Orange Country.

And of all the good things that have happened for Tennessee basketball in the last 15 years, the scenario this team finds itself in is actually the one we’ve experienced least. We’re much more familiar with…

• Obvious top seed (2006, 2008, 2018, 2019)
• The bubble (2009, 2011-14, 2020)
• The Tyndall-Barnes transition years (2015-17)

Only twice in these last 15 years have the Vols found themselves in our current predicament: we know it may not be on the top lines of any region, but we know we’re in. And from this position, Tennessee actually had two of its best tournament opportunities.

In 2007, the Vols were 22-10 (10-6) on Selection Sunday. Chris Lofton sprained his ankle halfway through the year, and the Vols lost six of eight. But then they won seven of their next eight before the curse of the Georgia Dome got us again in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee earned a five seed, put up a then-school record 121 points on Long Beach State in the first round, and beat Virginia in the 4/5 second round game when Ryan Childress and Chris Lofton made eight straight free throws in the final 30 seconds. If you’re old enough, you know the pleasure and the pain of what happened next: the Vols jumped out to a 20-point lead on the Greg Oden/Mike Conley Ohio State Buckeyes, but lost 85-84. A bananas stat from that game: the Vols shot 16-of-31 from the arc but just 8-of-17 from the line.

Three years later, Tennessee got their revenge in similar fashion. This time Tennessee was 25-8 (11-5) on Selection Sunday, and felt disrespected in falling to the six line. The Vols battled through Kawhi Leonard and San Diego State in round one, then made the madness work in their favor, beating 14-seed Ohio after they disposed of 3-seed Georgetown. And then, the Buckeyes: Evan Turner scored 31, but the Vols traded San Antonio for Saint Louis in a 77-74 thriller. Two days later, the Vols were one possession from the Final Four.

So even if these Vols don’t earn the highest seed we’ve seen under Pearl, Cuonzo, or Barnes, there will be opportunities to advance. Where exactly will the Vols fall on the seed line? In the 117 brackets submitted on March 8 in the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 5.67. The Vols are the top six seed there today, and the second five seed in Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology. On Torvik’s site, Tennessee’s resume is most similar to teams that earn an average seed of 5.4 in the NCAA Tournament, so that all tracks.

When I played with the Teamcast yesterday at Torvik’s site, there are scenarios where each win in the SEC Tournament could be worth a seed, if chalk holds:

• Lose to Florida and stay at 5
• Beat Florida, lose to Alabama, move up to 4
• Beat Florida, beat Alabama, lose to Arkansas, move up to 3
• Beat Florida, beat Alabama, beat Arkansas, move up to 2

That’s a lot of ifs, especially for the SEC Tournament, especially for Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, and especially for a pandemic year. (Will Warren also wrote on this today, and has a more thorough summary of where the Vols might land based on different results in the SEC Tournament.)

For the field as a whole, there’s plenty to watch. Using Tennessee’s neighbors in the Bracket Matrix, here’s a viewing guide for the next few days of Championship Week. Generally speaking, you want the teams we’ve listed with the Bracket Matrix seeds in bold to lose, with the possible exceptions of Vol opponents like Colorado and Missouri.

Tuesday, March 9

• WCC Finals: Gonzaga vs BYU (7 seed Bracket Matrix) – 9:00 PM – ESPN

Wednesday, March 10

• ACC: Clemson (6) vs Pitt/Miami – 2:30 PM – ACC Network
• SEC: Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt – 7:00 PM – SEC Network
• Big 12: Oklahoma (6) vs Iowa State – 9:30 PM – ESPN

Thursday, March 11

• SEC: Kentucky vs Mississippi State – 12:00 PM – SEC Network
• Big 12: Oklahoma State (4) vs West Virginia (4) – 11:30 AM – ESPN2
• ACC: Virginia (4) vs Syracuse/NC State – 12:00 PM – ESPN
• SEC: Florida vs Texas A&M/Vanderbilt – 2:30 PM – SEC Network
• Pac 12: Oregon (7) vs Arizona St/Wash. St – 2:30 PM – Pac 12 Network
• Big East: Creighton (5) vs Butler/Xavier – 6:00 PM – Fox Sports 1
• ACC: Florida State (5) vs Louisville/Duke/BC – 6:30 PM – ESPN
• SEC: Missouri (7) vs Georgia – 7:00 PM – SEC Network
• Pac 12: USC (5) vs Utah/Washington – 8:30 PM – Pac 12 Network
• Big 10: Wisconsin (7) vs Penn St/Nebraska – 9:00 PM – Big 10 Network
• SEC: Ole Miss vs South Carolina – 9:30 PM – SEC Network
• Big 12: Texas (4) vs Texas Tech (5) – 9:30 PM – ESPN
• Pac 12: Colorado (6) vs Stanford/Cal – 11:00 PM – ESPN

Enjoy the week.

Down 31-17 with five minutes to play in the first half, there were plenty of thoughts about what we had to let go of. Expectations, whether preseason leftovers or stubborn through the winter, were all getting a little slippery. Florida beat the Vols by 26 on January 19, and looked very much in control today even without Tre Mann.

I don’t know much for sure about this team, but whatever it does well in the SEC and NCAA Tournaments, defense will be a part of it. The Vols made a run because they held Florida to two points over those last five minutes (and zero in the last 3:37). The offense was a little slower to come along, but Victor Bailey, Keon Johnson, John Fulkerson, and free throws all had a role in getting it down to five at the break.

The Gators got three buckets in the first 2:22 of the second half, keeping the lead at seven. Their next made shot came seven minutes and twelve seconds later, which cut a Tennessee lead to four. Their next made shot came three minutes and twenty second after that, which cut a Tennessee lead to eight. Then nothing else until 3:30. Then nothing else.

Florida made only 20 shots today. In the last 17:30, they made three.

Along the way, the Vols forced 16 turnovers, ending the regular season 14-1 when they force 14+. Tennessee shot just 3-of-21 from the arc, the worst performance of the year. And the Vols went just 8-of-13 from the line.

But Tennessee won because it got 14 points from John Fulkerson in the first 22 minutes on senior day. And then, perhaps because the old Fulky showed up, some things opened up for the rest of the Vol offense the rest of the way home. While Florida was making just three shots in the final 17:30, the Vols got buckets from Pons, Bailey, Springer, Vescovi, Bailey, Springer, Bailey, Pons, Keon, Keon, Josiah, Keon, and Keon. Young #45 certainly had the motor for the final minutes. Old #10 made sure those minutes had a chance to matter.

And so Tennessee won, 65-54 on Senior Day. The Vols earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament and, if the bracket holds, will see the Gators again on Friday.

The Vols won their seventh SEC game by 10+ points; only 2008 (eight), 2014 (nine), and 2019 (12) had more. And sure, they lost three SEC games by 10+ points; only 2007 and 2010 (four each) had more among Tennessee’s recent NCAA Tournament teams. But not only is this pandemic year an opportunity to be thankful this season existed at all…this Tennessee team has given us a handful of memories that will last, including today. Missouri, Kansas, Rupp again…and now today, won with defense and perseverance in a way that might best represent what this season is about.

John Fulkerson’s final postgame comments are must listen. pic.twitter.com/3YVzp1xpxP

— Vol Network (@VolNetwork) March 7, 2021

John Fulkerson – flying freshman, slayer of Rupp, and the best of us on Senior Day – will be one of those guys we remember, just like the ones he listened to growing up. Yves Pons – the player I’ve spent the most number of possessions watching on the defensive end in my nearly 40 years – will be one too.

We’re not done here. First it’s Nashville and an SEC Tournament that should be all kinds of fun. Then the NCAA Tournament. There is basketball left in front of this team; if there’s a lot of it left, Tennessee’s defense will again have something to do with it.

But today, more than just saying thanks for being here, Tennessee won in a way that carries so much pride. This season has been hard. This game was headed in the same direction, with less help than ever coming from three.

And yet, Tennessee rallied. And Tennessee won.

This season has been tough. But so has this team.

Go Vols.

When the league expanded before the start of the 2012-13 season, basketball was expected to be one of the biggest winners. The year before, not only did Kentucky win the national championship, but incoming Missouri was 30-4 and a two seed out of the Big 12. They lost to Norfolk State in the first round, perhaps a sign of things to come: for the first four years with Mizzou and Texas A&M in the fold, the SEC really struggled to improve itself in the national conversation.

In 2013 the league put just three teams in the NCAA Tournament, and would’ve had just two if not for Marshall Henderson in the SEC Tournament. Florida went 18-0 in league play the following year, with the Vols just making three tournament teams via Dayton. Kentucky went 18-0 the next year. And in 2016, Vanderbilt squeaked in as an 11-seed with 14 losses, then got blown out by Wichita State.

The first noticeable improvement came in 2017. It started small: five tournament teams, all seeded nine or better. Then three of them made it through to the Elite Eight.

2018 saw the most competitive battle for the league crown, with Tennessee and Auburn sharing at 13-5 while eight teams made the NCAA Tournament. And in 2019 the league had two teams in the final KenPom Top 10 (Vols and Cats), five in the Top 25, and seven in the Top 50, all setting or tying records for the SEC in the expansion era. Four teams made what was one of the most loaded Sweet 16’s in the history of the tournament.

Who knows what would’ve happened last March, but in the regular season the league took a step back. We think four teams would’ve been in the tournament for sure, but Kentucky was the highest-rated in KenPom at only 29th. And in KenPom’s conference rankings, which rate each league based on how a good a team expected to go .500 in your conference is, the SEC finished sixth, a clear step back after finishing fourth in 2018 and 2019.

But this year, the SEC rates as the third best conference in college basketball. It is the league’s best mark since 2007. In the expansion era using that KenPom .500 team ranking:

Year	League Rank
2021	3
2020	6
2019	4
2018	4
2017	5
2016	6
2015	5
2014	6
2013	7

What makes the SEC stronger this year?

The league is good at the top. The SEC currently has four teams in the KenPom Top 30, and could still get three teams on the Top 4 seed lines of the NCAA Tournament if the Vols and Arkansas do well in Nashville, which only happened in 2019 in the expansion era.

And Alabama has an opportunity to be one of the ten best SEC teams of the expansion era:

Best SEC Teams via KenPom, 2013-present

Team	KenPom
15 Kentucky	36.91
13 Florida	31.18
14 Florida	28.57
17 Kentucky	27.72
19 Kentucky	27.57
17 Florida	27.5
19 Tennessee	26.24
16 Kentucky	25.14
19 Auburn	25
21 Alabama	24.78

And the league is much better at the bottom. Texas A&M is the wild card in this pandemic year, playing zero games in the month of February. They bring up the rear in KenPom at 130th. But ahead of them is South Carolina at 103rd; even Vanderbilt, who we tend to think of as struggling so mightily, is 91st. Last year the Commodores were 169th. In 2019 they were 155th. In 2017 LSU was 172nd; Auburn was 189th in Bruce Pearl’s second season, Missouri 192nd in 2015, and Mississippi State spent 2013 and 2014 in the 200s. You get the idea.

Even the “bad” teams in this league have much more of a pulse this year, and almost everyone has at least the makings of a good coach. We’re a long way from the kind of struggles Johnny Jones, Kim Anderson, Rick Ray, Tony Barbee, etc. faced just a few short years ago. In fact, three of those schools are going to make the NCAA Tournament this year, and the fourth has Ben Howland.

It could make for an amazing SEC Tournament, where I don’t think you’d be totally surprised if any of eight different teams won it, or if Alabama simply finished the job. But it should be a point of pride no matter what your team does in Nashville, including the Vols. The league is better than we’ve probably been giving it credit for, and having a chance to earn a double bye in its tournament is no small feat. We’ll see how it all plays out for everyone in the NCAA Tournament, but SEC Basketball continues to move in the right direction, and that’s good news for everyone.

It’s March, which means we’re just a handful of days from brackets, which means we’re just another handful of days from, “Every team in the tournament loses except one.” What we can say for sure about Tennessee’s season on March 2 is that they will make the NCAA Tournament, and they will lose at some point unless they win it all.

I don’t know if we’re allowed to dream that big around here, since we’re still looking for our first trip to the Final Four. A visit to the Elite Eight would only be our second. Since the turn of the century, the Vols have made the Sweet 16 six times; not bad for a program with zero appearances in the 64-team field in years that started with 19__. For the most part, there’s only heartbreak from there: the last five minutes against North Carolina, a 20-point halftime lead against Ohio State, a charge call against Michigan, and Ryan (Fulmerzied) Cline. Only once – even with one of the program’s best teams in 2008 – did the Vols just get straight up beaten by a better opponent, the way it might happen if the Vols land on the 4/5 line in a region with Gonzaga, Baylor, or Michigan this year. And only once, now 11 years ago, did the Vols break through.

If they get that far this time, it’ll be a success. If they’re upset in round one, it’ll be a disappointment. Everything else, at this point, feels a little fuzzy.

This is the year for fuzziness.

It’s a better option than last year, when the Vols won at Rupp Arena 364 days ago then everyone’s season was cancelled nine days later. Presence beats absence. But this year’s presence is confusing, and not just because most of us haven’t been there to see it in person. These Vols started 7-0, capped with a 20-point win in a Top 15 showdown at Missouri. Then they went to 10-1 (4-1), beaten only by an Alabama team it turns out is pretty good, especially good when they hit 10-of-20 from the arc.

Since then, of course, they’re 6-6. After winning at Rupp again on February 6, the Vols have won every Wednesday and lost every Saturday (which is unfortunate considering there is no Wednesday game this week). What seemed like very real conversations on earning a number one seed and winning the SEC have given way to the giant shrug emoji.

It is perhaps this team’s greatest achievement: they played so well early on they made us forget what should be the biggest given in a pandemic year. How dare we expect consistency?

Except they had it, until they didn’t.

Soon, this season is going to end. Perhaps they’ll rebound and beat Florida they way they’ve rebounded, for at least one game, after almost every loss. Maybe they’ll make a run it what should be a l-o-a-d-e-d SEC Tournament, which would be really fun; maybe they’ll last one day due to the aforementioned loadedness. And truly, you’d believe most anything about their NCAA Tournament fate right now.

Either way, this thing will be over soon. I don’t have the answers any more than Rick Barnes or anyone else does. Maybe it’ll end with success. Maybe it’ll end with more disappointment.

But before any of that happens, in the middle of this week with no game to play, a word of thanks.

These guys go through God knows what to play. Covid testing, restrictions and regulations, and a very different life than they experienced or imagined in being part of Tennessee basketball. I know they wanted to play; I know it’s in the immediate financial interests of a couple of them to have done so. Even so, I’m grateful they’ve been here twice a week.

This was something that maybe never had a chance to be properly expressed during the football season. In a pandemic, inconsistent should be the norm: witness Penn State or LSU in football, or Duke and Kentucky in basketball. The fall we experienced was a lot of things, but inconsistent failed to be among them. Losing to Kentucky the way we did skipped a number of conversations, and there was never a chance to go back to them when the Vols couldn’t follow up with a win to stop the snowball’s roll. And, rightfully so, then we had to have the big picture conversations about the coach and the program and an investigation, all things this basketball season should happily avoid even if the Vols don’t win another game.

But in the midst of all that, too, were football players facing tests and isolation and loss, in more ways than one. And they wanted to play, and since they last played several have decided it’s in their bests interests to play elsewhere. It was almost impossible to be grateful for last season. But I am grateful they tried to play.

In basketball, it’s worth pointing to the future from here, before this team’s ultimate March fate is decided. Another five star is on the way, John Fulkerson might be back, there is much to be excited about beyond just this season. That’ll be true if they get bounced in round one or break back through to the Elite Eight. The one will still be disappointing and the other will still be celebrated.

But either way, for all the frustration that comes with inconsistency, I’m so grateful they’ve been here this season.

I have no idea what they’re going to do in March. But I can suggest simply enjoying it, for as long as it lasts.

Go Vols.

Candidate for picture of the year up there, all the way down to the perfect placement of the Power T on the ball.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Auburn tomorrow.

What to Watch

Oh, good: Auburn averages over 16 turnovers per game and will likely have more than that against a disruptive Tennessee defense.

But, but, but: The Vols have been turnover-happy themselves as of late and could give that advantage right back if they don’t get that corrected.

Score Prediction

The line isn’t out yet, but KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 73, Auburn 69, which equates to a 62% chance of winning.

Our fledgling Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 8 (Tennessee 77, Auburn 69).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Auburn is not especially good at shooting defense, at least inside the arc. Bad at turning the ball over. Good on the offensive boards.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Weird. If you look at the baseline up there, it looks like Tennessee and Auburn are basically the same at shooting the ball, except that Auburn is slightly worse from three. But here, when it’s “effective field goal percentage,” Auburn’s quite a bit better, just behind Alabama. Not sure what to think about that, to be honest. Maybe they’re inconsistent, or maybe they do really well against bad defensive teams and struggle against good ones, with some outliers muddying things up.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Auburn appears quite careless with the ball. Tennessee’s numbers in this regard probably look better than they are, as it feels like they’re on a real skid lately.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: The Tigers are elite on the offensive glass.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Auburn gets to the free throw line at a pretty good clip.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Okay, so Tennessee’s struggling offense is going up against Auburn’s struggling defense. Got it.

On the other end, Auburn’s offense is pretty good at getting the ball in the bucket, but the Vols’ defense should make things more difficult for them than usual.

Turnover %

Conclusions

These numbers make it look like the Vols should win the turnover battle decisively. However, the numbers showed the same thing for the Vandy forecast, and although Tennessee did force the Commodores into 19 turnovers, they also gave up 17. The Vols need to do a better job there.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

As good as Auburn is at getting offensive rebounds, they’re decidedly not good at getting defensive rebounds. This looks like it could even out and nullify itself.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

There’s been a lot of discussion about Rick Barnes’ adherence to the notion that it’s still important to be able to score from all three levels. Nobody’s arguing about three-pointers and layups; the issue is the mid-range jumper. I’d defer to Barnes on that, of course, but I do wonder how many free throw attempts are sacrificed at the altar of open mid-range jumpers.

In any event, the Vols’ season-long numbers are pretty good here, and Auburn tends to foul a lot, so it could be a good day at the stripe for the Vols tomorrow. On the other end, Auburn knows how to get there as well, and Tennessee’s committing more fouls now than it did early in the season.

Go Vols.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Vanderbilt tonight.

What to Watch

Oh, good: Vandy’s poor shooting defense should allow the Vols’ inconsistent offense to have a good night, and Tennessee’s defense should result in another poor shooting night for Vandy. All of that, plus the Vols should be able to generate more turnovers than usual and get to the free throw line often.

But, but, but: We’ve used a lot of “shoulds” over the past several weeks that have turned into “didn’ts.” Plus, Vanderbilt appears to have an advantage on the offensive glass, and any good feelings that might come from a good offensive night could merely be a result of playing a less-than-stellar defense. Is it possible that what we’ve been calling inconsistency is really just an inability to score against good defenses? Stay tuned!

Score Prediction

Vegas has the Vols as a 7.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 141, figures the score to be something like Tennessee 74, Vanderbilt 67.

The last time out, Tennessee beat Vandy, 81-61. KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 73, Vanderbilt 66, which equates to a 73% chance of winning. Unfortunately, that’s about what the projection was for the second game against Kentucky, which the Vols lost by 15. Those guys have a good defense, though.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 12 (Tennessee 75, Vanderbilt 63).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Vandy is not especially good defensively, which should be good news for the inconsistency problem. On the other hand, it might also hide the issue by suggesting that the Vols’ offense has fixed itself. What if the thing we’ve been calling inconsistency is really just an inability to score against good defenses?

Last time out

Here’s what happened the last time these two teams met:

The Vols shot really well against the Commodores in their last matchup and also kept them well below their shooting averages.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among the Vols’ prior opponents, Vanderbilt is most like Missouri and Arkansas. And also Georgia, as that’s a pretty tight bunch.

Turnover %

Conclusion: These guys will turn the ball over.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Not bad on the offensive glass and pretty much a push with the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Vandy is most like Florida and App State among Vols’ prior opponents at getting to the free throw line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

So yeah. The ‘Dores don’t defend well, which should give a boost of confidence to a middling Vols’ offense. On the other end, Vandy is a pretty decent shooting team, but will be going up a Tennessee defense that still does well fairly consistently.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The disparity in giving the ball up and taking it away is not especially pronounced when the Vols have the ball, but is striking on the other end. Tennessee should be able to steal several additional opportunities by forcing turnovers against a Vandy squad prone to doing so anyway.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This looks like a slight advantage for Vanderbilt on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

These numbers suggest that, if they want to, the Vols should be able to get to the free throw line almost at will.

Go Vols.

Tennessee needs that game with Florida to be rescheduled. Otherwise, what’s left for the Vols – at Vanderbilt, at Auburn, and a possible reschedule at South Carolina – provides little in the way of opportunity but plenty in the way of potholes on the road. In the 28 brackets released after the loss to Kentucky in the Bracket Matrix, Tennessee’s average seed is 5.14. The five line is perilous in its own right, where you’ll face some of the best mid-major teams in the nation as 12 seeds. It also puts you in the potential path of Gonzaga or Baylor in the Sweet 16. But if the Vols don’t get another chance at a quality win via the Gators, I’m not sure if they can get back to the three line without winning the SEC Tournament.

It’s a different set of conversations than the ones we were having at 10-1 (4-1) on January 16, when Tennessee’s only loss was to a hot-shooting and surging Alabama team and the Vols were ranked sixth in both AP and KenPom. Since then Tennessee is 5-5, and it’s been weird along the way.

For instance: one of the biggest questions we had with this team, full of freshmen and absent Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden, was who takes the big shot at the end of games? Turns out, we haven’t really needed that answer. Through 21 games, the Vols have played just two one-possession contests: a 56-53 win over Mississippi State, and a 52-50 loss at Ole Miss.

I went back through each of Tennessee’s nine (soon to be 10) NCAA Tournament teams in the last 15 years. They averaged seven one-possession (or overtime) games per year, and only Cuonzo Martin’s last team (four) and Bruce Pearl’s first team (two) played less than six. True to form, things get harder as you get into March: plenty of those teams added multiple one-possession games in the NCAA Tournament. Pearl’s first team played no one-possession games until a March 1 loss to Kentucky in Knoxville, then Chris Lofton’s shot over Winthrop.

So there’s still time to find some answers to that question, but so far the 2021 Vols have won comfortably or lost uncomfortably. Add “very” in many cases. With 2-4 SEC games to play, the Vols have five conference wins by 10+ points. Among those recent Tennessee tournament teams, only 2008 (8), 2014 (9), and 2019 (12) had more in the regular season.

And, with 2-4 SEC games to play, the Vols have three conference losses by 10+ points. Among those recent Tennessee tournament teams, only 2007 and 2010 had more (four each).

The 2021 Vols have three 10+ point wins over KenPom Top 50 opponents (Missouri, Kansas, Kentucky). Only 2007 (4) and 2019 (5) had more. The 2008 team only had one. The Elite Eight squad two years later only had two.

It’s not all bad with this team, not at all. There’s just not much middle right now. Through some combination of covid, freshmen, and just this team, Tennessee either plays really well or really not. This, of course, is a recipe for losing in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. So along with stringing together a few wins against Vanderbilt, Auburn, and South Carolina, you’d also like to see this team beat two good teams in a row in the SEC Tournament. I thought Rick Barnes’ quote after Kentucky when asked if this team didn’t handle adversity well was a good one:

“I don’t know if I would say they don’t handle adversity. I don’t think they’ve handled success very well. When you feel like you’re getting things going, you feel like we’re turning the corner — that shows up more, I think if you saw practice, you would see some of that. But I would say this too: That goes back to really leadership within the framework of what we’re trying to do. Some of that, we talked about, has got to come from within the players. I would say more (than) the adversity, I don’t think we’ve handled success very well. I really don’t.

The Vols need to get healthy, for sure. They may not have a ton of opportunities left to build their resume, but they can certainly level out in the good way.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Kentucky tomorrow.

What to Watch

Oh, good: Kentucky is the worst-shooting team of all of the Vols’ opponents to date. They’re also extremely careless with the ball and nothing special at getting to the free throw line.

But, but, but: The Wildcats are solid on the offensive glass, and despite their struggles this season, they are still a really good defensive team. What might a good defensive team do to an offense searching for consistency? Let’s see!

Score Prediction

You’ll recall that the last time these two met, Tennessee won 82, 71. KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 68, Kentucky 61, which equates to a 75% chance of winning.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 10 (Tennessee 70, Kentucky 60) with 10 comps and by 12 with all comps (Tennessee 80, Kentucky 68).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Those defensive numbers look pretty good for them, but most everything else is coming up Vols.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Wow. The worst shooting team on our schedule? Yes!

Turnover %

Conclusion: Wow. Bad at turning the ball over? Yes!

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Okay, they’re good at getting second chances.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Not terrible at getting to the stripe, although not nearly as good as the Vols. Let’s see how the teams’ respective defenses might impact those numbers.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Despite Kentucky’s well-documented struggles this season, they’re still a pretty solid defensive team, which can mean trouble for a Vols’ offense well-known for its inconsistency.

On the other end, though, hoo-boy that’s a huge advantage for the good guys.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The Wildcats are not likely to steal but are oh-so-likely to give the thing away, especially to a team like Tennessee that is proficient at forcing turnovers.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Odd. Kentucky is decidedly not good at defensive rebounding, but nipping at the heels of elite on the offensive glass. The funny thing is that the Vols’ advantage under their own basket is more drastic than the ‘Cats advantage under theirs. (When I say “advantage” here, I don’t mean to suggest that either team is going to get more rebounds than the other team under their own bucket, just that they should get a higher-than-normal percentage of their own missed shots.)

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

If these numbers hold, the Vols should be able to get to the line more often than the ‘Cats.

Go Vols.

The Vols improved to 15-5 (8-5) with a 93-73 win over South Carolina late Wednesday night, a welcome offensive explosion via Victor Bailey’s seven threes and a return to form from John Fulkerson. It’s Kentucky next (1:00 PM Saturday CBS); the Cats have won two straight close games over Auburn and Vanderbilt to break a 1-7 skid. But the advantage should still belong to the Vols, who will look for their ninth win in 14 tries under Rick Barnes in the series.

This is normally when we enter the “last ten games” conversation, but that number is cut in half in 2021. For a season that has felt its share of ups and downs, some historical Tennessee context is helpful to frame this team as it moves toward the tournament.

In KenPom, the 2021 Vols are still in the tier below the 2019 squad. That’s no crime, considering the 2019 Vols put up the best number in program history (26.24) and would be a three-point favorite over anyone else that’s worn orange. But the current team is right in the thick of the conversation of who’s next best:

• 2008: 22.17
• 2014: 23.69
• 2018: 22.27
• 2021: 22.31

Those four plus the 2019 squad are the only Tennessee teams to finish above 20 in KenPom, which goes back to 2002. While the 2008 squad was generally a machine until running into Louisville in the Sweet 16, Cuonzo’s last team and Rick Barnes’ SEC Championship squad knew their share of frustrations in the regular season. If 2021 feels up and down, know it’s still in very good company as far as Tennessee goes.

Here are Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament teams in the last 15 years through their first 20 games:

Year	First 20	Seed	Result
2006	17-3 (8-1)	2	Round Two
2007	14-6 (2-3)	5	Sweet 16
2008	18-2 (5-1)	2	Sweet 16
2009	13-7 (4-2)	9	Round One
2010	16-4 (4-2)	6	Elite Eight
2011	13-7 (3-2)	9	Round One
2014	13-7 (4-3)	Dayton	Sweet 16
2018	15-5 (5-3)	3	Round Two
2019	19-1 (7-0)	2	Sweet 16
2021	15-5 (8-5)	TBD	TBD

While some of Tennessee’s best teams have been better than 15-5 through their first 20, the early SEC returns in 2010, 2014, and 2018 are similar to what we’ve seen so far. And the 2021 Vols have been particularly good at avoiding bad losses. Ole Miss is sneaking into Next Four Out conversations at the Bracket Matrix, and Tennessee’s other four defeats are all NCAA Tournament teams.

By contrast, the 2007 Vols lost six of eight from mid-January to early February, some of which came while Chris Lofton was out with a sprained ankle. But those six defeats included a loss at Auburn, who finished 17-15. The 2010 Vols infamously lost by 22 at USC in December, and by 15 at Georgia at the end of a seven-game winning streak. And if you were around seven years ago, you don’t need the details on Cuonzo Martin’s last season, featuring a pair of losses by four points (and one overtime) to Texas A&M, KenPom #110.

Barnes’ first tournament team in 2018 made their big splash by winning at Rupp Arena on February 6, improving to 18-5 (8-3). They were promptly blown out in Tuscaloosa by 28 four days later, and lost at Georgia by 11 the following Saturday. It happens; maybe it’ll happen to this team later, though later is getting thin. But so far, so good on the 2021 Vols generally taking care of their business.

Inconsistency will continue to be a talking point until it isn’t, and it may not get there with freshmen + covid. Perhaps Tennessee’s win/loss ceiling and NCAA seed possibilities have been diminished from what we thought in mid-January. But the Vols are among very good company in KenPom, don’t lose to bad teams, and may still find some of their best basketball ahead of them. And if they can get Kentucky again, we’ll find ourselves feeling quite good about Tennessee.

Go Vols.