Tennessee-Vanderbilt Four Factors Forecast, II: Return of the Offense?

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Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s game against Vanderbilt tonight.

What to Watch

Oh, good: Vandy’s poor shooting defense should allow the Vols’ inconsistent offense to have a good night, and Tennessee’s defense should result in another poor shooting night for Vandy. All of that, plus the Vols should be able to generate more turnovers than usual and get to the free throw line often.

But, but, but: We’ve used a lot of “shoulds” over the past several weeks that have turned into “didn’ts.” Plus, Vanderbilt appears to have an advantage on the offensive glass, and any good feelings that might come from a good offensive night could merely be a result of playing a less-than-stellar defense. Is it possible that what we’ve been calling inconsistency is really just an inability to score against good defenses? Stay tuned!

Score Prediction

Vegas has the Vols as a 7.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 141, figures the score to be something like Tennessee 74, Vanderbilt 67.

The last time out, Tennessee beat Vandy, 81-61. KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 73, Vanderbilt 66, which equates to a 73% chance of winning. Unfortunately, that’s about what the projection was for the second game against Kentucky, which the Vols lost by 15. Those guys have a good defense, though.

Our Hoops Statsy Preview Machine likes the Vols by 12 (Tennessee 75, Vanderbilt 63).

Details below.


Baseline

Current numbers:

Vandy is not especially good defensively, which should be good news for the inconsistency problem. On the other hand, it might also hide the issue by suggesting that the Vols’ offense has fixed itself. What if the thing we’ve been calling inconsistency is really just an inability to score against good defenses?

Last time out

Here’s what happened the last time these two teams met:

The Vols shot really well against the Commodores in their last matchup and also kept them well below their shooting averages.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Among the Vols’ prior opponents, Vanderbilt is most like Missouri and Arkansas. And also Georgia, as that’s a pretty tight bunch.

Turnover %

Conclusion: These guys will turn the ball over.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Not bad on the offensive glass and pretty much a push with the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: Vandy is most like Florida and App State among Vols’ prior opponents at getting to the free throw line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

So yeah. The ‘Dores don’t defend well, which should give a boost of confidence to a middling Vols’ offense. On the other end, Vandy is a pretty decent shooting team, but will be going up a Tennessee defense that still does well fairly consistently.

Turnover %

Conclusions

The disparity in giving the ball up and taking it away is not especially pronounced when the Vols have the ball, but is striking on the other end. Tennessee should be able to steal several additional opportunities by forcing turnovers against a Vandy squad prone to doing so anyway.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

This looks like a slight advantage for Vanderbilt on the offensive boards.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

These numbers suggest that, if they want to, the Vols should be able to get to the free throw line almost at will.

Go Vols.

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