Gameday on Rocky Top

As usual, credit Ken Pomeroy for being on top of it: in preseason, Tennessee’s fresh-faced basketball team rated an even 20.00 (points better than the average team per 100 possessions). The Vols, of course, are now done playing; with a handful of tournament games left their rating will still fluctuate slightly. But at the moment, the 2021 Vols have a rating of 19.85.

Whether using SP+ for football (more on 2021 projections using those ratings soon) or KenPom in basketball, it’s helpful to put Tennessee’s seasons into better historical context. Not all 8-4s are created equal, nor are all five seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

This year in particular felt like such a struggle to define, and still does, because there are so many unique elements. The Vols had what appear to be a pair of one-and-dones, the program’s first and only since Tobias Harris ten years ago. Keon Johnson routinely appears in the lottery in mock drafts, Jaden Springer sprinkled throughout the first round. That’s new for us.

They helped the Vols earn a five seed, where Tennessee promptly lost to Oregon State, who continued to ride an incredible hot hand into the Sweet 16 after winning the Pac 12 Tournament. It was the first time the Vols had been upset in the first round (seeded 7 or higher) since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. That’s new for us.

The freshmen had to carry the weight without John Fulkerson, which they did sensationally well at Rupp Arena and admirably so against Alabama in the SEC Tournament. But when Yves Pons also left the floor in foul trouble against Oregon State, the Vols just looked so lost. It’s a lot to ask for the freshmen on that stage for the first time. The Vols played in the NCAA Tournament without one of their most important players. That’s new for us.

In fact, part of the story of Rick Barnes in the tournament at Tennessee has been bad luck. Kyle Alexander was injured in the first round romp over Wright State in 2018, and didn’t play against Loyola Chicago where the Vols fell to a shot that hit the rim 1234217 times before going in. Officiating squabbles aside, the Vols fell to Purdue when Ryan Cline hit seven three pointers on ten attempts, many of them outrageous. And the Vols fell to Oregon State without the services of John Fulkerson. The tournament has not been kind to the orange and white.

Meanwhile, the teams that have beaten Tennessee have made themselves look even better beyond. Loyola, of course, went to the Final Four. Purdue took the eventual national champions to overtime 48 hours later. Oregon State is still playing and just beat the potential number one overall pick. The Vols may have been the higher seed in each of those games, but the difference between wasn’t as high as we thought going in.

And all of this, of course, falls into the context of the pandemic, brand new and burdensome for all of us. Whether you fire Jeremy Pruitt with or without cause, lose as a five seed, or have a Top 10 baseball team, the pandemic should still get the first and last word on your season.

“Tournament results aside,” is what I want to type, and that’s a funny phrase. The tournament is what all of college basketball builds to. But if you make it pass/fail for your season, you’re going to fail a lot more than you like, especially in the most upset-prone bracket of all-time this year (see also: the pandemic) coming one tournament after the most loaded Sweet 16 of all-time, which happened to happen the year Tennessee had its best team.

That 2019 team still stands alone, both in weeks at number one and in KenPom’s ratings. Here are the tiers we used for Tennessee’s teams in the KenPom era (2002-present) during the preseason – it’s interesting to note where the 2021 Vols will ultimately land:

• Tier A – The Current Peak: 2019 (26.24 KenPom)
• Tier B – The Fully Capable: 2014 (23.69), 2018 (22.27), 2008 (22.17)
• Tier C – The Dangerous: 2021 (19.85), 2006 (19.44), 2010 (18.50), 2007 (18.29)
• Tier D – The Unnecessary Defense of Bruce Pearl: 2009 (16.48)
• Tier E – The Bubble (but probably the NIT)
• Tier F – That’s okay, we’re a football school (Buzz Peterson’s last two years, Donnie Tyndall, Rick Barnes’ first year)

In KenPom, four of Tennessee’s five best teams of the last 20 years belong to Barnes and Cuonzo. The 2021 Vols are fifth on that list, currently first in Tier C, together with 2006, 2007, and 2010 from Bruce Pearl’s era.

I like to think of SP+ and KenPom as, “Who would I least like to face?” And some nights, these Vols fit that bill. They beat Colorado and Arkansas, both in the KenPom Top 15. They famously waxed a pair of AP Top 15 squads at Missouri and vs Kansas. And they still made memories late with back-to-back, emotionally-charged wins over Florida. They won seven regular season SEC games by 10+ points, trailing only 2008, 2014, and 2019.

And they lost three regular season SEC games by 10+ points, trailing only 2007 and 2010 among Tennessee’s recent tournament teams. They played only two one-possession games all year. Their worst lost on the slate is at Auburn, 63rd in KenPom. Only the 2006 and 2019 Vols had a better record there in terms of not losing to bad teams; this team’s “bad” wasn’t as bad as you think.

The main issue is that their good never got to be as good as it was in mid-January. At 10-1 (4-1), the Vols had only lost to Alabama in a game when Jaden Springer got hurt and, again, Pons was in foul trouble. At that point the Vols were sixth nationally in KenPom, and we were having conversations about a one seed and winning the SEC. From there, Springer was still banged up, lineups got weird, responsibilities were shifted, and along the way Tennessee went 8-8.

So, what’s the best comparison for this year? I don’t think there is one.

It has the one-and-done and off-the-court weirdness of 2011, with the mid-season fall of 2001 (so perhaps the lesson is, be careful in years that end with 1). But it also had some truly dominant regular season performances that could be matched only by some of Tennessee’s very best teams, with no very worst losses. It’s not a good comparison on the floor or in the record book, but maybe 2009 is its best counterpart, simply for the way this year doesn’t feel like it belongs with any others.

I remain grateful that they played at all. And more good news is on the way: Kennedy Chandler is Tennessee’s highest-rated signee since Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson (again, no guarantees, see 2011). Four-star wing Jahmai Mashack joins him in the incoming class. John Fulkerson might be back. Who knows what the transfer portal will bring.

Without Keon, Springer, and Pons, it’ll feel like the ceiling is a little lower going in. But in reality, it’ll be the same question mark from this season as the Vols seek to put so many new pieces in important places.

Under Rick Barnes, Tennessee is giving themselves better chances than ever in terms of talent, beating Kentucky more than ever, and losing to fewer bad teams than ever. And though we thought the bracket was kind going in this year, the tournament itself is yet to return the favor to one of his teams.

At the same time, the tournament will always be the last impression your team leaves. As Tennessee continues to pursue just its second Elite Eight in program history, here’s hoping the Vols can build on what they learned from this year and carry the program’s history forward not just November-February, but in March as well.

Go Vols.

It’s not so much that this game represented Tennessee’s worst basketball, though that might be true of the performance. It felt more like a team that struggled in the second half of the year with its offensive identity seemed to lose itself completely during this game. No John Fulkerson, and then no Yves Pons with foul trouble. It was already out of hand when Josiah James exited with a nasty looking ankle injury. And the Vols never found the pieces to put it back together.

You can look at the minutes and see the search: Uros Plavsic early, Olivier Nkamhoua for a long stretch with Pons on the bench in the first half, E.J. Anosike in that role in the second half. Tennessee’s interior defense was completely victimized by Roman Silva as a result: Silva’s season high was six made shots in a game, something he did three times. Today he went 8-for-8. And Oregon State’s hot shooting from the Pac-12 Tournament persisted: 10-of-21 from the arc, 47.6%. In Tennessee’s last five NCAA Tournament games, opponents from the arc shot:

• Loyola Chicago: 8-of-20 (40%)
• Colgate: 15-of-29 (51.7%)
• Iowa: 7-of-21 (33.3%)
• Purdue: 15-of-31 (48.4%)
• Oregon State: 10-of-21 (47.6%)
• Total: 55-of-122 (45.1%)

The Vols allowed 31.8% from the arc all season before today, 35.4% in 2019, and 31.8% in 2018.

So one part of this, much the way we tipped our hat to Ryan Cline upon our last exit, is to credit Oregon State. Not only did they stay hot offensively, they scouted Tennessee very well and attacked with excellence where the Vols were most vulnerable without Fulkerson.

And one part of this is certainly Fulkerson’s absence. In this way too, Tennessee has fallen on the wrong side of luck in postseason play under Rick Barnes, with Kyle Alexander’s sudden absence a factor in the loss to Loyola three years ago.

Things felt up in the air without #10, though Tennessee played so well against Alabama without him you felt hopeful it might show up again. Instead, the Vols got so out of sorts so early, they never recovered. Tennessee’s own three-point shooting was poor, but that’s not the first time we’ve run into that problem this year (or recently, see 3-of-21 against Florida in Knoxville). What hurt Tennessee’s offense more was an inability to get to the line: just 12 free throw attempts, the fourth-lowest of the season. Tennessee’s 10 assists were also fourth-lowest on the year, another sign that things simply weren’t working offensively. In the late frenzy the Vols did push Oregon State over the “magic” 14+ turnover mark at 15, but by then it was too late.

There’s a lot you can say about this one, little of it good. We have little experience without Fulkerson, and no experience losing as this kind of favorite in the first round of the tournament, all of which makes conclusions easier to jump to. The loss is certainly disappointing, as is a first round exit from a 10-1 start.

The thing I am most sure of this year remains the pandemic. And so more than anything, I want to go back and say again how grateful I am that this team played basketball in the first place. I don’t know everything they went through, and I’m sure their disappointment outnumbers our own. But I’m so grateful they’ve been there twice a week for four months. And I’m hopeful the 2021-22 Vols will only be answering questions about the virus in the past tense.

Here’s a look at how the teams that took it to the Vols this season rank in KenPom’s various advanced metrics. We looked at this in hopes of discovering what, if anything, those teams have in common so we can be on the lookout for NCAA Tournament opponents that might present the most trouble for Tennessee.

Key takeaways:

• The things that seem to give the Vols the most trouble are opponents’ overall offensive efficiency and offensive rebounding.
• Things that also matter to some degree include free throw rate, overall defensive efficiency, and defensive effective field goal percentage.
• Tempo, turnover percentage, effective field goal percentage (oddly enough), defensive turnovers, defensive rebounding, and defensive free throw rate don’t seem to matter much at all.
• Oregon State fits the mold in the most-important categories of overall offensive and defensive efficiency and offensive rebounding, but only barely. Basically, in the things matter, the Beavers’ profile looks a lot like the one or two worst losses on Tennessee’s resume.

Details below.

Overall Efficiency, Tempo

What matters (a lot): Overall offensive efficiency, as every team that Tennessee has lost to, with the exception of Ole Miss, has ranked in the Top 100. Five of seven of them were in the Top 50.

What matters (some): Overall defensive efficiency, as most of Tennessee’s prior losses have come against teams that are in the Top 40. But two of those losses came against teams that were just outside the Top 100.

What doesn’t matter: Tempo seems to have no bearing on whether a team poses a threat to the Vols.

What it means against Oregon State: The Beavers fit the mold in overall offensive efficiency and overall defensive efficiency, although on defense, they are closer to not making the cut than feeling comfortable there.

Offense

What matters (a lot): Offensive rebounding. Almost all of the teams that have beaten Tennessee have ranked in the Top 100 in offensive rebounding. Only Missouri was outside that range.

What matters (some): Free throw rate. This may be questionable, but it seems like the teams that have beaten the Vols are either good or at least decent at getting to the free throw line. The notable exception, of course, is Alabama, who doesn’t need free throws to beat you twice.

What doesn’t matter: Turnover percentage and effective field goal percentage. Those things are, of course, important, but just because an opponent doesn’t have them as part of its identity doesn’t mean they’re not a threat.

What it means against Oregon State: Offensive rebounding is worth a lot against the Vols, and thanks to Missouri, the Beavers aren’t outside the danger range. But they are close enough to the bottom that it’s not a five-alarm fire.

Free throw rate could be problematic, but as we discovered in yesterday’s Four Factors Forecast, any trouble the Beavers cause there, they tend to give back with interest on the other end.

Defense

What matters (maybe): Defensive effective field goal percentage. A team’s ability to negatively impact their opponent’s shooting percentage seems to matter to a degree for the Vols. Most of the teams that have beaten Tennessee fell within Top 107 range and half of them were in the Top 60.

The other defensive categories — turnovers, rebounding, and free throw rate — don’t seem to matter much at all.

What it means against Oregon State: In the only defensive category that seems to bother the Vols, the Beavers are fairly significantly outside the bottom of the range of those teams that have given Tennessee losses.

Here’s the GRT Four Factors Forecast for Tennessee’s first-round NCAA Tournament game against the Oregon State Beavers Friday afternoon.

What to Watch

It’s important to remind ourselves that season-long identities sometimes go on hiatus come tournament time. Hey, it’s spring. The temperature is going to fluctuate. It’s madness!

Uh-oh:

• As Will pointed out in his preview of this game, Oregon State turned into a different team in the Pac-12 Tournament, going from warm to white hot beyond the arc.
• The Beavers are pretty stingy and selfish with their stuff. (They don’t turn the ball over much.)
• Pretty good on the offensive glass, Oregon State will likely get a frustrating number of second chances on any of their own missed shots.

Oh, good:

• For most of the season, the Beavers didn’t shoot very well. (How could they, with those short, stubby paws?) Although they got hot in the Pac-12 Tournament, they’ll be going up against an elite Tennessee defense with a hoppy octopus playing goalie.
• The Vols should have a huge advantage at getting to the free throw line. They’re not only good at drawing fouls, the Beavers can’t keep their paws to themselves.
• Tennessee’s inconsistency on offense is well-documented, but the Beavers’ defense suggests that it’s more likely to be a good day than bad.
• The Vols are pretty good on the offensive glass themselves, so they should be able to erase any second chances Oregon State gets under their own basket.

Score Prediction

According to that Boyds Bets table I kept referring to in yesterday’s Cinderella post, 5 seeds advance to the second round 64.3% of the time.

Vegas has Tennessee as an 8.5-point favorite, and with an over/under of 130, that works out to something like Tennessee 69, Oregon State 61.

KemPom projects this one as Tennessee 69, Oregon State 62, which results in a 74% chance of winning.

Our Toddler likes the Vols by 9 (Tennessee 68, Oregon State 59).

Details below.

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Baseline

Current numbers:

Initial simplified takeaways: The difference in shooting percentages from the floor is negligible, but the Beavers are much better from three. The Vols, however, are much better defensively from inside the arc. Everything else looks pretty even, unless you consider 1.5 rebounds per game an advantage.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

Conclusion: Okay, so Oregon State is not especially good at shooting the ball. Most like Mississippi and Saint Joseph’s among former Vols’ opponents.

Turnover %

Conclusion: Dudes are stingy when they have the ball. Most like Arkansas, App State, Kansas, and Colorado in this regard.

Offensive Rebound %

Conclusion: Most like Colorado and Cincinnati among prior Tennessee opponents, Oregon State is a merely decent offensive rebounding team.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusion: The Beavers are not bad at getting to the free throw line.

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

Conclusions

Okay, so Tennessee’s season-long identity is that of a team that is only mediocre shooting the ball. The good news is that Oregon State’s shooting defense isn’t any better.

On the other end, Tennessee should have a decided advantage, as the Vols are still bordering on elite in shooting defense, and the Beavers are bordering on bad at hitting shots.

Turnover %

Conclusions

Tennessee has an unnerving tendency to go on turnover sprees. Fortunately, Oregon State isn’t especially adept at forcing turnovers.

When the Beavers have the ball, they don’t tend to turn it over much, but the Vols are professional thieves, so we’ll see how that shakes out.

Offensive Rebounding %

Conclusions

Another big advantage here for the Vols on their end of the court, as they’re pretty good at earning second chances on the offensive glass while the Beavers are not a good defensive rebounding team.

However, it’s the same story under the Beavers’ basket, although not quite as compelling.

Free Throw Rate

Conclusions

Hoo-boy. That’s a nice recipe there, with a Vols squad decent at earning trips to the free throw line going up against an Oregon State team that can’t keep their hands to themselves.

The Beavers get to the stripe at a fair rate as well, but Tennessee’s not going to help them get there.

Go Vols.