How did Tennessee’s performance against Georgia Tech affect our outlook on the rest of the season? In this week’s win probability (and you can still fill in your own at the bottom of that post), our readers nudge the Vols to the right side of eight wins:
Opponent
Win Probability
Georgia Tech
100.0%
Indiana State
99.1%
at Florida
57.5%
UMass
98.1%
Georgia
51.4%
South Carolina
64.7%
at Alabama
12.4%
at Kentucky
70.0%
Southern Miss
87.9%
at Missouri
71.8%
LSU
33.8%
Vanderbilt
69.1%
WINS
8.16
Most noteworthy here: our readers now find Florida a more likely victory than Georgia. But the rest of the numbers show this has more to do with what the Gators did than what we saw from the Vols.
Again, it’s difficult to make meaningful observations about the rest of the season from a week one date with the triple option. The good news: it’s Indiana State this Saturday, which means instead of going from a grueling overtime opener to the spectacle of Bristol like last year, the Vols get a much-needed visit from an FCS school with a losing record. The bad news: I’m not sure how much we’re going to learn this week either.
What is most exciting in the week two syllabus?
John Kelly, Marquez Callaway, Ethan Wolf, and…?
When Jauan Jennings went down, Quinten Dormady and Tennessee’s passing game went three places. To no surprise in the Butch Jones offense, the running back played a major role: John Kelly led the team with five receptions. Marquez Callaway was a revelation with 115 yards and two scores. And Ethan Wolf was inches away from what would have been his most productive day in a Tennessee uniform.
Will we see anyone begin to emerge behind those three? Brandon Johnson caught three passes but for only 14 yards underneath against the Yellow Jackets. Josh Palmer started but finished with just one catch. Does Josh Smith play? Can Tyler Byrd get on the same page with the quarterback(s)? Do we see more from some of the backups? The more options the Gators have to prepare for, the better.
How do the Vols rotate on defense?
Plenty of conversation in this short week has emerged around the number of snaps some of Tennessee’s defenders played. The Vols had five of the nation’s Top 50 defenders in total tackles in week one. This is in part because Georgia Tech had 96 offensive snaps in a double overtime game. But it’s also because, despite this, the Vols didn’t really rotate a lot of defenders.
Ten of UT’s starting eleven defenders had at least six tackles; Justin Martin was the odd man out. But behind the starters, no one recorded more than three total tackles. 116 of Tennessee’s 131 total tackles came from those ten players.
Safety: Abernathy & Warrior 22 combined tackles; Todd Kelly Jr. 3
The numbers would have been striking at defensive tackle as well had Kendal Vickers not gone out with an injury. Against 96 plays and 40+ minutes of possession, the Vols rolled with their starters all night long.
The million dollar question here: was that because the coaches didn’t trust any of the backups against Georgia Tech’s offense, or don’t trust the backups period?
They’ll trust them plenty against Indiana State, and those big names up there could use the rest. We won’t know how deep Bob Shoop and Butch Jones’ trust goes until Gainesville. But seeing who the fourth options are at defensive end, defensive tackle, and safety will be of note, and we’ll get that information this Saturday.
We all know the injury narrative from last season. I’d like to know if guys like Kyle Phillips, Quart’e Sapp, Alexis Johnson, and any number of freshmen can help this team before they have to help this team.
Resting Heart Rate
Months ago you could already see how much healthier Tennessee’s schedule was going to be this year. But I have felt it this week, and you probably have too. We got so used to our hearts beating at 150 bpm every week last fall, we bounced right back to it against Georgia Tech like an old friend who is trying to kill you. But thanks to no Bristol and no Florida-Georgia-A&M-Bama gauntlet this year, we can breathe a little deeper between Saturdays. We’ll get to the Gators. But first, man, we need some Indiana State.
The Statsy Preview Calculator is still shuffling about in front of the coffee pot murmuring something about being awake so early in the season, so we’re going to leave it be for another week until it regains its happy disposition.
And what are one game’s worth of FCS stats going to tell us, anyway? So, let’s just take a quick look at what Indiana State did last year just to see what, if anything, they did well at their own level.
The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores Offense
Offensive observations. What we’re looking at is a pass-heavy middle-of-the-road FCS team. The passing offense was decent, but the rushing game was non-existent, and if they didn’t get it done on first or second down, they didn’t get it done. That’s good news for a tired Vols defense looking to gain some confidence heading into the Florida game next week.
The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores Defense
Defensive observations. Not to pile on here, but apart from the apparent ability to take turnovers to the house, those numbers suggest that the Sycamores appear to play defense a little bit like trees on golf courses. Maybe they’ll present a problem if you try to run right through a bunch of them huddled together, but if you stay on the fairway, you should be fine.
The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores Special Teams
Special Teams observations. Indiana State actually looks like they could be a bit salty on special teams, however. They can block kicks and punts, and they do a pretty good job on kickoff returns, both returning them and covering them.
The 2016-17 Indiana State Sycamores – Turnovers and Penalties
Turnovers and penalties observations. I’m not sure exactly what to make of these turnover numbers. It appears that Indiana State had some excitement in the form of balls on the ground last season, as they recovered a whole bunch of them, but also lost a bunch of them themselves.
Players to Watch
As mentioned earlier, the Sycamores’ passing game appears to be the strength of the team, and the reason for that is quarterback Isaac Harker, who’s returning this season as a redshirt junior. Harker passed for 2,559 yards and 19 touchdowns last season. Unfortunately for Harker, his top two receivers from last year — Robert Tonyan and Miles Thompson — are gone, and it showed in his first game of the 2017 season. Coaches actually benched Harker after the first half in favor of Cade Sparks, who also struggled. In all, four guys had a total of seven receptions the entire game.
The running game was a different story last week, though. The team lost running back Roland Genesy, their leading rusher from last year, but Lamonte Booker, who was a starter before missing the 2016 season with a knee injury, is back for a redshirt senior season. Booker had 154 yards on 31 carries last week against Eastern Illinois, so he’s no pushover.
On defense, no one really stands out. Defensive end Kenyota Rollins had three sacks and nine tackles for loss last season but didn’t even start last week. Senior defensive lineman Evan Gill did get his name attached to three assists on sacks, and two other guys — sophomore linebacker Inoke Moala and junior defensive back De’Jaun Tyson — each had a sack of their own.
Somebody’s in for a long day
As I wrote in the preseason magazine, Indiana State is staring down a major challenge. As an FCS team that went 4-7 overall and 2-6 in conference last season, they’re heading into Neyland Stadium with a new head coach and not enough returning starters to take on the Tennessee Volunteers. If the Big Orange struggles against the Sycamores, it will be cause for concern.
The bad news for Week 2 of the college football season is that somebody decided to schedule all of the best games in the same time slot. The good news for Vols fans is that that time slot is Saturday night, and you probably have time to get home from the Tennessee game to channel hop your evening away.
Thursday, September 7
Really, if you have something to do this evening, you might want to just do that instead of watching a game on Facebook Live. Then again, you might want to watch it just so you can tell your kids you remember the days when you watched football games on a television.
Friday, September 8
Ditto Friday, I guess. I mean, seriously, how did we go from having a week’s worth of good college football games spread out over five days the first week to cramming it all into four hours Saturday night?
On the other hand, if you want to tune in to see Mike “I’m an old man now, I’m 50” Gundy, feel free.
Gameday, September 9
Okay, let’s talk about a few things here. We’ve had that discussion about whether and under what circumstances to root for other SEC teams once this season already. As you can see from that table up there, I’m rooting for SEC West teams this week, but I’m on the fence about SEC East rivals this week. We can probably all agree that rooting for whatever outcome is best for Tennessee is the proper thing to do, but what’s best for Tennessee is difficult to determine.
So, which non-Tennessee SEC teams are you rooting for this weekend?
Oh, and I’m rooting for Oklahoma over Ohio State as long as Urban Meyer’s a Buckeye, and I’m rooting for Missouri over South Carolina because the Tigers have a more difficult SEC West schedule (Auburn and Arkansas) than the Gamecocks (Texas A&M and Arkansas).
Here’s your promised reminder to get your picks in for the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em. If you haven’t joined yet, it’s not too late even for the season-long contest. Head over to Fun Office Pools, find the Gameday on Rocky Top pool, and pick away.
Each weekly winner gets a Gameday on Rocky Top T-Shirt shipped to your door. This comes in the form of a $25 coupon code to our sister store, Web Community Tees, where you can choose the options for your tee (color, size, garment, speed). You can also use it toward the purchase of a hoodie or sweatshirt or long sleeve tee or ladies or kids garments instead. The overall winner (the one with the most points when the entire regular season is complete) gets a $100 coupon code. This may be to Web Community Tees or to the store here at Gameday on Rocky Top.
In this week’s Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast, Will, Brad, and I chat about:
What we learned from the Georgia Tech game that might translate into the rest of the season (1:00 mark);
Our early objective assessment of Quinten Dormady, Tennessee’s passing game, and the target rates for pass catchers in the absence of Jauan Jennings (14:30);
What, if anything, we learned about the defense that translates the rest of the year (27:50);
Bob Shoop’s decision not to rotate defensive linemen (31:50);
The linebacker situation going forward (33:30);
The passivity/timidity of the defensive alignment and the defensive linemen against Georgia Tech (35:30);
Getting the two best linebackers on the field (37:40);
Thanks, too, to everyone who played the GRT Pick ‘Em Pool this week. I was running way behind last week, and so we didn’t really get to announce the prizes because if there are prizes, there must be rules, and I couldn’t get the rules together in time. We’ll post the rules at the time we announce next week’s picks are open. Which, I guess better be tomorrow, right? 🙂
Anyway, no prizes this week, but we do have what we’re calling a gift for the winner: Gman15, who either picked every single game correctly this week or is a hacker and programmer who figured out how to game the system. Either way, he gets a free Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt from our custom tee store, Web Community Tees:
Thanks to everyone who played our Guessing Game last week. GoVols365 and PaVol took an early lead thanks to the mushrooms, and then Will Shelton took sole possession of the lead in the second round thanks to being one of the few to guess that Jarrett Guarantano wouldn’t play (and also thanks to a mushroom).
But Fatso ends up with a two-point lead at the end of the day after Will fell prey to his optimism on the question of whether the Vols would hold Georgia Tech to less than their average rushing yards from last season.
The full results are below.
This week’s questions will go up sometime Friday.
Round 1
Q: Which true quarterback takes the first snap? (1-3 points)
A: Quinten Dormady
In a historical feat of remarkable collective prescience, every single player got the answer to the first question correct, except for Jarrett Guarantano, who didn’t play. But his time is coming.
Mushrooms: GoVols365 and PaVol
Bananas: RockyTopinKY and vfl_mks
Blue shells and bolts: None
Top 10 after Round 1:
Round 2
Q: At which point does another true quarterback get his first snap at quarterback? (2-10 points)
A: NEVER!
Shocking twist afoot.
Mushrooms: Will Shelton and GoVols365
Bananas: Drew and Dave Strunk
Blue shells and bolts: None!
Top 10 after Round 2:
Round 3
Q: Georgia Tech averaged 258.1 rushing yards per game last year. How many do they get against the Vols Monday night? (3 points)
Now that we have at least one week’s worth of data, let’s take a look at what to reasonably expect out of the Vols the rest of the way.
Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week. There’s also a chance for you to log your own expectations at the bottom of the post.
The Vols after Georgia Tech
Not sure exactly what to make of the Vols yet, of course. It’s difficult after one game anyway, but when the first opponent is Georgia Tech, it’s even more sketchy to attempt to draw too many conclusions. It’s not just that the defense played against the flexbone, it’s that the offense was sitting on the sideline while it was happening. We knew this going in, of course, but it bears repeating. Perhaps the biggest takeaways are that John Kelly is going to be a workhorse (he got 19 of 20 carries against the Yellow Jackets) and that Marquez Callaway is our non-Jauan Jennings playmaker at wide receiver.
Apart from that, you have to be happy about a few things: No sacks, no TFLs. The offense had five trips to the red zone and scored touchdowns every single time. Special teams looked like they’re going to pick up right where they left off, and the trash can is +2 with no interceptions and no fumbles to go along with two fumble recoveries. Plus, the team had only two penalties for 20 yards, which puts them tied for third nationally with four other teams. Give Jones credit for harping on Maxim 1 heading into Atlanta.
You can’t really draw any conclusions about the defense due to the opponent. Or I should say, let’s hope you can’t draw any conclusions about the defense. They did make the play that mattered most, but you don’t want to look at the stats.
So, on the whole, I’d have to say that I feel pretty much the same about the Vols themselves after the first game.
Expectations for a Vols win: Indiana State lost in the last three seconds to E Illinois, so don’t put too much on that loss. On the other hand, they are still an FCS program that should be overmatched against Tennessee. I’m going to keep them at 98%.
Expectations for a Vols win: The headline may be “Michigan hands Florida its first season-opening loss since 1989,” but Florida generally doesn’t open with a good team anyway, so the headline should probably be “Florida still hasn’t found its offense.” It’s not that Florida lost to Michigan, it’s that their offense scored only three of 17 points. Note, though, that Florida was without two of their best playmakers on offense in receiver Antonio Callaway and running back Jordan Scarlett. I had them at 51% before, and I’m going to bump that up to 55%.
Expectations for a Vols win: UMass is struggling out of the gate, and so far, it does not look like the Vols should have any trouble with them. I’m sticking with 98% and slotted above Indiana State.
PREDICTIONS – UMASS
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
W13
96
96
9/30/17: Georgia (1-0, 0-0 SEC, #15)
W1: Beat Appalachian State, 31-10. QB Jacob Eason went down, but freshman Jake Fromm looked good and took care of business.
W2: At #24 Notre Dame
W3: Samford
W4: Mississippi State
W5: At #25 Tennessee
W6: At Vanderbilt
W7: Missouri
W8: Bye
W9: vs. #22 Florida
W10: South Carolina
W11: At #13 Auburn
W12: Kentucky
W13: At Georgia Tech
Expectations for a Vols win: The latest on Eason is that he’s week-to-week. But there really doesn’t seem to be much difference between Eason and Fromm. Bottom line, Georgia looked good. I had them at 45% and two spots above Florida before the season began, and I’m going to keep them there for now. We’ll know more about them after this week’s game at South Bend.
Expectations for a Vols win: Get used to hearing the phrase, “Jake Bentley to Deebo Samuel.” Those guys are dynamic and dangerous. The Gamecocks’ win over NC State was actually an upset, and it did come down to the last play as the Wolfpack was throwing into the end zone on the last play. There’s also this: South Carolina was outgained 504-246. These guys may be better than we gave them credit for in the offseason. Or they may not be. Holding firm on them for now at 70% and first in the group that consists of them, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt.
Expectations for a Vols win: All these guys did was dominate the third-best team in the country and knock their opponent’s best player out for the season in the first game. I had them at 10% preseason, and I’m keeping them there for now.
Expectations for a Vols win: Kentucky won their game this weekend, but their offense didn’t look good. QB Stephen Johnson had only 176 yards, and running back Benny Snell had only 67 rushing yards. The team needed every bit of two forced fumbles late to win. It’s early, but at this point, and I’m going to keep them at 65% for now.
Expectations for a Vols win: Everything I just said about Kentucky could instead mean more about Southern Miss. We won’t know for a little while, so for now, I’m going to give Southern Miss the benefit of the doubt and move them up a bit, too, from 90% to 85%.
Expectations for a Vols win: Keep an eye on Missouri, as they like to fly low all the way to the finish line. Yeah, their opponent was Missouri State, but 72 points is 72 points. QB Drew Lock had a record-setting 521 yards and seven touchdowns, and Damarea Crockett had 202 rushing yards. On the other hand, their problem last year was defense, and they allowed 43 points and 6.6 yards per play, so . . . who knows at this point? I’m going to move them to 65% and slot them above Kentucky.
Expectations for a Vols win: Running back Derrius Guice had 120 yards and two touchdowns, and the LSU defense didn’t allow BYU’s offense to even cross midfield. We’ll see whether Orgeron can hold things together, but all of the pieces seem to be there. I had LSU at 25% preseason, significantly away from the Florida/Georgia pack, and I’m going to stick with that at this time.
Expectations for a Vols win: Yikes, that’s a tough stretch from Week 3 to Week 6 for the Commodores. QB Kyle Shurmur threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns, and the defense held a Blue Raiders that was 12th nationally in scoring last year to only six points. Vandy may be better this year than we believed heading into the preseason. I was inclined to move Vanderbilt above Kentucky, too, but for now I’m leaving them where they are at 70%.
PREDICTIONS – VANDERBILT
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
W6
W7
W8
W9
W10
W11
W12
W13
70
70
All of that puts me at 7.92 wins, but with 9 if the coin comes up the right way every time.
YOUR TURN
How would you set your win probabilities for the rest of the Vols games? Fill out this form, and we’ll compile the results and post them later this week:
So I tried lying to myself all week, about how this game wouldn’t really matter. If Georgia Tech’s unique offense got the best of Tennessee’s Kirkland-less defense, we couldn’t draw too many conclusions. If Tennessee’s offense looked great against an uncelebrated Yellow Jacket defense, we couldn’t get too excited. No matter what happened, our chances in the SEC East race and the season’s narrative would be largely unaffected.
That was a stupid thing to believe.
The Defensive Numbers in Context
There is a helplessness that can set in when playing an offense like Georgia Tech’s. It reminded me a little of our 1990’s games against Nebraska; even with less talent and lower stakes, when that offense is humming a two-possession lead feels like 20. And you can try to talk yourself into whatever you want, but when the ball is kicked in week one the stakes are always high because they are carrying an entire off-season on their shoulders. In Tennessee’s case, an off-season plus some leftovers from 2016.
So it is comforting the day after to realize that while Georgia Tech did run for 535 yards, the most a Tennessee defense has ever allowed, they also did so on 86 carries. Their 6.22 yards per carry are not something we want to try to reproduce, but it’s also not as bad as what Tennessee’s defense surrendered to Texas A&M (7.06), Alabama (8.52), Kentucky (8.05), or Missouri (6.27) last year. GT’s 6.82 yards per play won’t lead us to a successful season if it shows up in the box score every week, but the Vols allowed more than seven yards per play to A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt last year. It was by no means success, but I might wait to see what this defense does against the offenses it’ll see the rest of the year before passing judgment on Bob Shoop’s 2017.
Third Down For Less
It was not, of course, comforting in the moment last night. Listening to cries of “STOP THEM!” was like watching your undersized team get dominated on the boards and all you can do is yell “BOX OUT!” Adding to the discomfort: Tennessee’s offense got off to a not-great start. The first half went like this: punt, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out, an eight-play, 46-yard touchdown drive, and a turnover on downs featuring sub-par clock management. Then a three-and-out to open the second half, at which point Georgia Tech ran the third quarter clock down to 3:14 with a 21-7 lead before missing a 47-yard field goal.
The game got a lot more fun after that. A sure path to no fun: Tennessee’s opening drives featured 3rd-and-12, 3rd-and-8, 3rd-and-10, and 3rd-and-10. But after that, the Vols saw no worse than 3rd-and-7 the rest of the night with one exception: the 3rd-and-9 dump-off to John Kelly that went for 10, two plays before Marquez Callaway’s 50-yard touchdown.
Quinten Dormady might turn into something really special; right now the Vols just need him to be something good. Last year the Vols could count on a veteran quarterback to get them out of trouble on third down with both his arms and his legs. This year the Vols have to help Dormady get out of trouble on third down by not getting in trouble on first and second down. It certainly made a tremendous difference in the second half last night.
Let Team 121 Be Team 121
I was in the stands last night and didn’t even know there was a trash can on the sideline until I saw it this morning. If the players like it – context clues suggest they do – perhaps Butch Jones and this bunch embrace a bit of them against the world? People making fun of something else the coach does? Bring it on. You don’t like the trash can? Maybe next week there are two of them. If you’re going to do the trash can, own the trash can.
This team will need to rally around each other, and they got plenty of practice last night. Not only has Tennessee lost its biggest names and faces from last season, it will now be without Darrin Kirkland Jr. and Jauan Jennings all year. It’s helpful to remember that, while Tennessee’s injury luck has been astoundingly bad, the Vols did beat Florida and Georgia and should have beaten Texas A&M without Kirkland, Cam Sutton, and Jalen Reeves-Maybin last fall. It wasn’t the quality of injuries that did the Vols in last fall; the defense’s shutdown performance against the Gators in the second half came on the shoulders of guys like Colton Jumper. No program is going to handle 2016’s quantity of injuries well. But for now, while losing Kirkland and Jennings in no way will make Tennessee better, there is plenty of talent to meet this new opportunity. Daniel Bituli and Marquez Callaway are Exhibits A and B. We’ll need more, but it was a great opening response.
The drama was similar, but the names and faces last night were new…and the Vols still got it done. It’s a long year with the entirety of conference play before us…but this offense should have earned plenty of confidence in the second half, and the defense will have a chance to do the same against traditional offenses. Team 121 will face plenty of adversity. But if they learned how to handle it better than Team 120, they’ll have a chance to have a more successful season. And in that department, last night was a really good start.
Jennings had three catches for 17 yards in last night’s 42-41 win over Georgia Tech. He was also, of course, the guy who had the huge go-ahead touchdown catch against Florida last year and the Hail Mary catch to beat Georgia last season.
Best wishes to Jennings for a speedy and full recovery. Now, it is time for the rest of the receiving corps to step up. Marquez Callaway, who had four huge catches and two touchdowns last night after Jennings went down, has already started down that path, but the team will need others to step up as well. Josh Smith may be back from his own injury soon, and the team is optimistic about guys like Josh Palmer and Tyler Byrd contributing as well.
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