How do you help your brand new quarterback in a critical game? Get off to a good start. And that’s something Tennessee has to do better regardless of who’s taking snaps.

In 56 games under Butch Jones, Tennessee has scored on the opening drive 19 times (34.5%) with 14 touchdowns and five field goals. Against FBS competition, the Vols have scored 15 times in 51 games (29.4%), with only 10 touchdowns on the opening drive (19.6%). And against power five opponents, the Vols have scored only seven touchdowns on the opening drive, with four of those coming against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. So only against Arkansas and South Carolina in 2015 and Iowa in the Taxslayer Bowl have the Vols scored a touchdown on the opening drive against non-Kentucky/Vanderbilt power five opponents.

This year the Vols have been particularly bad:  three-and-outs against both Indiana State and UMass, just 10 yards in five plays against Georgia Tech, a first-play interception against Georgia and another in Florida territory. The Vols had a 20-yard gain on the opening drive at Florida, but failed to gain more than eight yards on a single play in any of their other opening drives this year.

As you’ll recall, starting hot was not a problem in 2015:  the Vols scored touchdowns on the opening drive against Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Texas, and Vanderbilt, plus field goals against Oklahoma and Missouri with a missed field goal at Alabama. The 2015 Vols also threw a pick against Georgia and fumbled deep in Kentucky territory. Only twice did the Vols punt on the opening drive that year:  at Florida, and in the Outback Bowl in the season’s only three-and-out on the first series. Other than the Northwestern game, every opening drive had a play that went for at least 13 yards.

The big play potential was there in 2016 as well:  aside from three-and-outs against Virginia Tech, Texas A&M, and Kentucky, the Vols had plays of at least 11 yards on every opening drive. But Tennessee struggled to finish drives last season, getting a field goal against Appalachian State and touchdowns against Ohio, Tennessee Tech, and Vanderbilt but punting it away every other time.

What we’ve seen this year is similar to what the Vols did in 2013 and the first half of 2014 before Josh Dobbs took over full-time. Tennessee scored a touchdown on the opening drive in the first (Austin Peay) and last (Kentucky) game of Butch Jones’ inaugural season, but had six punts and three turnovers in between. A 30-yard gain against Auburn led to a field goal, but seven of the other drives between the first and last game had plays gaining no more than six yards.

In games started by Justin Worley in 2014 (taking out Chattanooga), the Vols went three-and-out four times and also punted after a five-play drive at Ole Miss. Only against Georgia did the Vols produce points (a field goal) on their opening drive before Dobbs took over.

This year the Vols are averaging just three yards per play on the opening drive (21 plays, 63 yards) with no points. In all other years the Vols have averaged between 4.9 (2013) and 6.3 (2015) yards per play on the opening drive. And remember, this year’s team has already played the two worst teams on its schedule, and went three-and-out against both of them.

Tennessee will need to get Jarrett Guarantano in rhythm early, but may also need to address philosophical issues that could be leading to an overall lack of success on the game’s opening drive. There is no more necessary time to make those adjustments than now, to give a new quarterback and the head coach a better chance at success.

Here’s the full data from every game under Butch Jones:

Opp	Plays	Yards	Result	Long Play
Georgia Tech	5	10	Punt	7
Indiana St.	3	5	Punt	8
Florida	9	41	INT	20
UMass	3	7	Punt	8
Georgia	1	0	INT	0
App St	15	70	FG	16
Virginia Tech	3	-2	Punt	4
Ohio	3	55	TD	35
Florida	6	35	Punt	12
Georgia	4	12	Punt	11
Texas A&M	3	8	Punt	6
Alabama	8	15	Punt	16
USC	8	17	Punt	17
TTU	3	46	TD	30
Kentucky	3	5	Punt	7
Missouri	4	12	Punt	10
Vanderbilt	5	56	TD	25
Nebraska	8	42	Punt	29
Bowling Green	10	75	TD	19
Oklahoma	11	50	FG	15
W. Carolina	5	51	TD	29
Florida	4	10	Punt	16
Arkansas	11	89	TD	35
Georgia	3	14	INT	13
Alabama	11	50	FG Miss	20
Kentucky	12	43	Fumble	16
USC	8	67	TD	20
North Texas	5	56	TD	27
Missouri	8	35	FG	13
Vanderbilt	5	56	TD	18
Northwestern	3	4	Punt	6
Utah St.	3	-3	Punt	2
Arkansas St.	3	6	Punt	4
Oklahoma	3	-3	Punt	4
Georgia	9	43	FG	14
Florida	3	7	Punt	5
Chattanooga	8	38	TD	11
Ole Miss	5	26	Punt	13
Alabama	6	21	Punt	12
USC	4	6	Punt	10
Kentucky	5	73	TD	28
Missouri	3	0	Punt	3
Vanderbilt	4	35	Punt	12
Iowa	9	80	TD	25
Austin Peay	4	64	TD	47
WKU	5	12	Punt	5
Oregon	2	1	Fumble	1
Florida	2	-6	Fumble	2
S. Alabama	3	4	Punt	3
Georgia	7	30	Punt	11
USC	3	-8	Punt	0
Alabama	3	6	Punt	6
Missouri	6	22	Punt	10
Auburn	9	53	FG	30
Vanderbilt	3	4	INT	3
Kentucky	2	60	TD	60

 

Tennessee’s new starting quarterback is 12-of-24 for 54 yards in three appearances this season. Those 2.3 yards per attempt obviously must increase for the Vols to have any chance to win, and the play-calling should give him some of the chances Quinten Dormady has had down the field. Guarantano’s struggles in limited action have tempered some of the expectations that usually come when the backup gets his chance. But the context of what other Vol quarterbacks have done in their first mid-season start serves as an additional dose of realism.

Justin Worley also got his first start against South Carolina in 2011, going 10-of-26 for 105 yards in a 14-3 loss. This was a ranked Gamecock squad, but the performance was still one of the ten worst for the Tennessee offense in the last ten years.

Nathan Peterman was a surprise starter against the Gators in 2013. He didn’t make it out of the first half, going 4-of-11 for five yards with three total turnovers. Peterman’s play is a good reminder to never make the first impression the final one:  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Tennessee quarterback look worse than Peterman did on this day, and after Josh Dobbs ran away with the job against Alabama the next year he never got another look in Knoxville. But he excelled at Pittsburgh and made the Bills’ roster this fall.

The Vols didn’t find the end zone in Josh Dobbs’ first start, but his numbers were significantly better:  26-of-42 for 240 yards, completing 62% of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt. Those kind of numbers aren’t good enough to win every Saturday, but for a first start against an SEC defense (and in Dobbs’ case, a top five Missouri team) it’s not bad. A few weeks later (and without Marquez North), Dobbs would give Peterman’s 2013 Florida game a run for its money by going 11-of-19 for 53 yards (2.8 yards per attempt) and a pair of interceptions against Vanderbilt. But he would spend the next 2.5 years becoming the most productive Tennessee quarterback since Peyton Manning.

All new quarterbacks must be handled with patience, and to that point I wouldn’t consider the book closed on Quinten Dormady either. How long will Guarantano’s leash be against the Gamecocks? Worley, Peterman, and Dobbs each threw two interceptions in their first start. If Guarantano follows suit, will Dormady see any action?

There is one critical difference between Guarantano’s first start and the others: the stakes are much, much higher for the head coach. Derek Dooley made a foolish and/or panic move in pulling Worley’s redshirt in the middle of his second season as coach, but Tyler Bray would return from a broken thumb a few weeks later and Dooley was always going to get a third year. Peterman stepped in for Worley in Butch Jones’ third career game at Tennessee, a decision that turned out to be rash. But now Butch Jones is in must-win territory, and pledged to get there on the shoulders of his redshirt freshman quarterback. How much of the offense will they give him? How much of the offense can he handle? Will the nature of the beast this week make a sleepy Tennessee offense come alive sooner?

Don’t set the bar too high for a quarterback making his first start in the middle of the season. But can it be high enough to beat South Carolina?

With what’s happened to the Vols the last few games, fans have rightly been focused on Tennessee and have understandably been concerned about its ability to be competitive with the SEC. But there’s a bit of potentially good news this week, as the South Carolina Gamecocks come to Neyland Stadium with the worst rushing offense and the worst passing defense the Vols have played all year.

The Gamecocks have actually improved recently, and they really seem to have found their stride last week in a rout of Arkansas. As Will said on our Gameday on Rocky Top podcast this morning, if there is indeed trouble in the Tennessee locker room, South Carolina is good enough to make it obvious. But if the Vols can get their own act together and make the most of their apparent talent advantage, especially on offense, Saturday is shaping up to be a good game.

South Carolina’s Schedule

South Carolina (4-2, 2-2 SEC, NR)

• W1: Beat NC State, 35-28.
• W2: Beat Missouri, 31-13.
• W3: Lost to Kentucky, 23-13.
• W4: Beat LA Tech, 17-16.
• W5: Lost to Texas A&M, 24-17.
• W6: Beat Arkansas, 48-22.
• W7: At Tennessee
• W8: Bye
• W9: Vanderbilt
• W10: At Georgia
• W11: Florida
• W12: Wofford
• W13: Clemson

That schedule to date is ranked as the nation’s 55th most difficult. Tennessee’s is ranked 59th.

Stats

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 137.6 rushing yards per game, while South Carolina is giving up 145.7 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is South Carolina, is Florida, which is giving up 156.0 yards per game on the ground. The Vols got 183 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than the Gamecocks is Georgia Tech, which is allowing 101.8. Tennessee got 148 on the ground against the Yellow Jackets. Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against South Carolina is 165.

South Carolina rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 252.6 rushing yards per game. The South Carolina run game is averaging 97.0 yards per game, making the Gamecocks the worst rushing offense the Vols have played so far. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 107.5 rushing yards per game and got 144 against Tennessee. I’m guessing South Carolina will get about 150 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 195.8 passing yards per game, and South Carolina is allowing 248.8. That makes the Gamecocks the worst passing defense the Vols have played so far this year, at least in number of passing yards allowed per game. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Indiana State. They’re allowing 235.0 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 235 against them. My guess is that Tennessee will put up somewhere around 215 passing yards this weekend.

South Carolina passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 129.2 passing yards per game. South Carolina is getting 242.7. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is getting 191.8 yards per game through the air, and they got 212 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 305.0 passing yards per game and got 137 against Tennessee. I’m going with South Carolina putting up about 220 passing yards against Tennessee.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 24.2 points per game, and South Carolina is allowing 21.0. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is allowing 24.2 points per game, and Tennessee got 20 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia Tech. They’re allowing 19.0 points per game, and Tennessee got 28 against them in regulation. I’m waffling between Tennessee getting its average of 24 points against South Carolina and only getting 17 points based primarily on the last game against Georgia and having a new quarterback this week. I’m settling on 21.

South Carolina scoring

Tennessee is allowing 25.6 points per game. South Carolina is averaging 26.8. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Massachusetts, which is averaging 25.7 points, and they got 13 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 35.0 points and got 41 against Tennessee. I’m going with South Carolina getting around its average of 27 points against Tennessee.

SUMMARY

• Tennessee rushing yards: 165
• South Carolina rushing yards: 150
• Tennessee passing yards: 215
• South Carolina passing yards: 220
• Tennessee points: 21
• South Carolina points: 27

Current betting lines and other statistical models

The statsy preview calculator is a bit more pessimistic than Vegas, as the current spread favors the Vols between 2.5 and 3.5, with an over/under of 47.5-48. That makes it look more like Tennessee, 26-23.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 48.2% chance of beating the Gamecocks, and S&P+ likes the Vols, 28.4-24.

What does South Carolina do especially well and not especially well?

National Unit Rankings

Offensive observations. There’s nothing here to get overly concerned about, as the numbers suggest that South Carolina’s offense really isn’t very good. They do some things well enough, but with a Total Offense ranked 106th and a Rushing Offense ranked 121st, that should give the Vols defense an opportunity to make them one dimensional. Assuming they can just shut down the run, then the key becomes whether Tennessee’s pass rush and the secondary can close the deal.

Defensive observations. On one hand, that Defensive TDs stat is special, as the Gamecocks have had three defensive scores so far this year. On the other hand, all three of them were last week, and unless they discovered some magic turnover bean or something, I would think that a fair amount of that was luck. Their guys are probably thinking they’re especially good at it now, and I hope that means that they’ll be a little overconfident and over-aggressive this week and that the Vols can use that against them. The stats also suggest that if the Gamecocks are not turning it over, they’re giving up yards, both on the ground and through the air. They’ve also not been especially good on first or third down, so the Vols offense should have some opportunities this week.

Special teams observations. I hope Marquez Callaway is 100% and has seen the opportunity that appears to be there in the punt return game.

Turnovers and Penalties observations. And yikes, the Gamecocks don’t make mistakes, either in turnovers or penalties, so the Vols are just going to have to beat them.

Players to Watch

Offense

The biggest threat on offense for the South Carolina Gamecocks appears to be in the passing game. It’s led by sophomore quarterback Jake Bentley, who is currently 114 of 188 for 1,456 yards and 12 touchdowns with four interceptions. He has a trio of young but talented receivers at his disposal in sophomore Bryan Edwards (27 receptions for 357 yards and a touchdown), and freshmen Shi Smith (14 receptions for 186 yards and a touchdown) and Ortre Smith (9 receptions for 113 yards and three touchdowns). Junior tight end Hayden Hurst is also a common target with 19 receptions, 297 yards, and two touchdowns so far this season.

Defense

On defense, the team is led by senior linebacker Skai Moore, who was one of three defensive players to score a touchdown last week against Arkansas. The other two were junior defensive back Keisean Nixon (a pick six, like Moore’s) and sophomore linebacker T.J. Brunson (74-yard fumble return). The secondary, too, is an experienced and talented lot, led by seniors JaMarcus King, D.J. Smith, and Chris Lammons.

Special Teams

South Carolina kickers are 5 of 14 on field goal attempts this year.

Time to play the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you have no idea what that is, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
2. Click the “Submit” button.
3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

 

Good luck, and Go Vols!

 

Tennessee got a much-needed bye week after three consecutive trying weeks for head coach Butch Jones and the program. It probably didn’t feel like one.

Right now, everybody has a source on Jones’ future — or lack of one, depending who you ask — on the Tennessee sideline. There are still fights, as evidenced by defensive end Darrell Taylor getting suspended indefinitely in part for brawling with a teammate. There are players like senior Josh Smith trying to step up and do leadership-y things such as saying the team has Jones’ back and the Vols are going to bowls, what more do you want? GAH!

Still, it’s OK to demand more from your football program, Vols fans. Just do it in a respectful way. Remember there are lives affected, families at stake and perception in the eyes of recruits and people who may come and coach after Jones goes, whenever that may be.

Whatever is going to happen is going to happen without your 140-character quip, I promise.

So, go have fun. After all, the past decade has given us few moments of contentment, but we’re never so happy as when it’s GRUMORS! time.

With that in mind — “that” being it doesn’t matter what you think — let’s all band together and hate Will Muschamp this weekend, can we? There’s perhaps no bigger jerk in the SEC. This guy hates Tennessee, makes wisecracks and smart remarks every time he can about our program and lets his players talk trash leading up to the game.

He did it at Florida, and now he’s doing it at South Carolina.

Also, there was this little tidbit from a recruiting story by SEC Country’s Mike Griffith last year regarding the recruitment of offensive tackle K’Rojhn Calbert:

“I was in the locker room, because Coach Muschamp said we’re not going to feed you any bull crap, what you see is what is is,” Calbert said. “I wasn’t scared in the sense for my life, but I was scared because there were a lot of things going on in that locker room, nothing illegal, just words being used, ‘We’re going to kill Tennessee.’

“Really, it was like a riot; it was, who was hungry enough to come out and take somebody’s head off, like literally, like they really wanted to kill Tennessee, like slaughter everybody,” Calbert said. “It was a savage mentality.”

Um, yeah, Muschamp is a buffoon. Heck, he may be a baboon, or at least he has a caveman mentality. The worst thing is the Vols have never beaten him, as the coach of the Florida Gators or at South Carolina. He’s a terrible coach, yet he has Tennessee’s number.

If you’re going to pull for UT to lose, I’m not sure you’re a fan, anyway. But if you are going to do that, do it another week. Nobody should want Muschamp to come into Neyland Stadium and walk out with (another) win.

This South Carolina team isn’t that good. The Gamecocks are way too cocky, and Tennessee needs to band together and win this game. If the Vols don’t, we may keep our attention off the field for the foreseeable future.

As far as the locks go, last week was much better. Hey, there’s nowhere to go but up after a 1-7 week, amirite? Anyway, we went 5-3 with wins coming from Memphis, Miami, West Virginia, Georgia and Washington State covers. The losses were pretty awful, as Maryland didn’t cover 31 against Ohio State, Kentucky didn’t beat Mizzou by more than 10.5 and SMU couldn’t keep it within a touchdown against Houston. Still, we’re sniffing .500 again, now sitting at 20-21-1. We’ll get back over the hump this week. Guaranteed.

But before we get to this week’s locks, let’s look at the keys to beating the Gamecocks.

KEYS

Put Guarantano in a position to be successful

This is The Guarantee’s first career start, and nothing is guaranteed. It doesn’t matter how loudly you’ve screamed for him to replace Quinten Dormady this year, there’s a reason why he didn’t have the job until now. It’s likely that he didn’t even “win” the job as much as UT just knows it has to try something different because what it has been doing obviously isn’t working.

As we’ve hashed and rehashed all week, the redshirt freshman from New Jersey has completed 50 percent of his passes so far in very limited action this year. We’ve also noted that, no matter how much we’d like for him to be, he isn’t Joshua Dobbs.

We can’t look at this weekend like we’re watching perhaps Jones’ most heralded, important recruit. We can’t look at it like the entire coaching regime and the season may be on his shoulders. Those things may be true, but none of them are Guarantano’s fault. He’s a youngster, and he is going to be as wet behind the ears as they come.

Offensive coordinator Larry Scott needs to get back to basics, give JG some high-percentage passes, let him run the read-option and give him some opportunities to get his confidence up. There definitely needs to be some shots downfield and some chances to showcase his speed and arm strength. But this is about starting a new era, and you can’t shatter the kid’s ego up front. Help him out.

Block out the noise

Tennessee has proved over the past couple of weeks that it has a bunch of immature kids. It also has proved that it is lacking in the leadership area, no matter how many reps they may be getting in practice.

All of the talk about new coaches, suspended players, decommitting recruits, players not on the sideline or those who are transferring out of the program needs to end once UT trots onto Shields-Watkins Field for pregame warm-ups. If this ever has a chance of being a “team” under Jones again, these guys have to play together, for each other, block out the noise and play the way they’re capable of playing.

Who knows if this program is too far gone for Jones to recapture? Few of us do. After all, can we really see John Currie canning Jones if he goes 10-3? What about 9-4? I’m not saying yes or no. But it would make things murky. This season can be saved starting with Saturday. At the very least, the Vols could save some face. If they have any pride, they’ll try to do that.

Find some heroes

Tyler Byrd has talked some smack back to South Carolina this week, further proving how immature he is on Twitter (seriously, somebody take social media away from that kid!) There were rumors and actual reports this week that Dormady was contemplating his future after being demoted. Seriously, where are the leaders?

If these guys aren’t going to do it, how about somebody who will? John Kelly was very vocal throughout the preseason and early season. It’s time for him to take over. But he needs help. Can Kahlil McKenzie or Shy Tuttle prove they’re key defenders? What about speedy linebackers Daniel Bituli or Quart’e Sapp? If this is going to be Guarantano’s team, it would be nice to see him show some fire and for the players to rally around him.

This team is starving for somebody to take over and be an Alpha. This week is the ideal time to start.

Play a full game

Just like last season, the slow starts plague Tennessee. Two years ago, UT couldn’t close out games [as evidenced by late losses to Oklahoma and Florida] but the past two years has seen the Vols blow games early.

The Vols didn’t even really start playing the Georgia Tech and Florida games until the second half. Did they ever even show up against Georgia?

If that happens this weekend, UT will be 3-3. Jake Bentley is the best quarterback the Vols have played this year, and he is going to torch them if they don’t get off to a quick start, stay aggressive and assert themselves. There won’t be any coming back against South Carolina.

Get to Bentley

Speaking of Bentley, he can pick you apart, even without Deebo Samuel out there catching darts. Tennessee needs to apply some pressure on him from all angles, and that means defensive coordinator Bob Shoop needs an aggressive game plan.

How much tougher is that going to be without Taylor out there? The redshirt sophomore could have been booted from the team for his actions these past few weeks, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that he’s a talented player the Vols need. He would have been an X-factor in this game. Instead, he let his teammates down.

Now, UT needs to find ways to get to Bentley and throw him off his rhythm.

LOCKS

So, yeah, 5-3! Not bad. This week, we’ve got eight more games we love. Let’s go 8-0!

1. West Virginia -3.5 over Texas Tech: The Mountaineers are the best two-loss team in the country, and I’m still not sold on the Red Raiders being ranked. This is going to be a high-scoring attack, but Dana Holgorsen’s team is better. Will Grier will throw at will over TTU, and this is an easy cover in Morgantown.
2. North Carolina State -11.5 at Pittsburgh: I must be missing something on this line. Pitt has been a struggle all year, and the Wolfpack are playing quality football right now. This won’t be a high-scoring game, but NCSU will grind out a convincing win.
3. TCU -5.5 over Kansas State: This is my lock of the week. Gary Patterson’s team is in a different class than Bill Snyder’s. Yes, this is the kind of game that the Wildcats seem to occasionally win, but the Horned Frogs have big aspirations. They won’t stumble here.
4. UCLA and Arizona under 77.5: This is an insane number. Hey, I like Josh Rosen as much as the next guy, and he deserves some Heisman consideration, and I expect him to do his part to hit that over. But the Wildcats won’t. This game won’t get close to that number.
5. UCLA -2 over Arizona: Again, I love Rosen. Bruins cover easily.
6. Navy at Memphis under 75.5: Speaking of crazy numbers, I don’t see the Midshipmen going into the Bluff City and throwing up a lot of points. The Tigers defense is bad, but Navy won’t shred up yardage and points.
7. Texas A&M +2.5 over Florida: Kellen Mond is beginning to look like a future playmaker, and the Gators can’t find any of those on offense. Kevin Sumlin’s team is going into the Swamp and winning outright.
8. Michigan State -4.5 over Minnesota: What we saw last weekend was no fluke. Mark Dantonio’s team is much improved from a season ago, and the win over Michigan may be just what they needed to get back on track. Minnesota’s loss to Purdue showed they aren’t quite there in P.J. Fleck’s first year. Spartans roll.

Tennessee quarterback Quinten Dormady was at practice yesterday despite a report suggesting that he was considering leaving the team after losing the starting job to Jarrett Guarantano. Today, Butch Jones said that Dormady had one of his better practices yesterday despite being disappointed about the switch:

“Quinten’s a competitor, and obviously he was very, very disappointed, but that’s what you would expect from a competitor,” Jones said. “You know, I thought he had one of his better practices yesterday. He came out and he worked. Again, you’re always one snap away. We go through life and we have setbacks and it’s how you deal with it, and I think he’s dealt with it very, very well.

“Again, he’s been disappointed, but when you’re a competitor, that’s what you would expect.”

Dormady won the starting job in fall camp and played the entire game in the Georgia Tech win and the Florida loss. The coaches then pulled Dormady in favor of Guarantano in both the too-close-for-comfort win over UMass and the blowout loss to Georgia, although Guarantano didn’t really appear that much better in those games. Jones opened the competition in the bye week last week and officially announced Guarantano as the starter today.

A couple of weeks ago, we posted side-by-side depth charts for Tennessee and Georgia and included the players’ respective classes and recruiting rankings. The main conclusion from doing that was that yes, Georgia’s starting lineup was more talented than Tennessee’s. The end result of the game was certainly attributable to more than just a gap in talent, of course, but the Bulldogs did have a pretty clear advantage in that department.

The South Carolina Gamecocks are talented as well, but Tennessee does have better numbers. Whether it will matter is a different question.

Here’s the side-by-side projected starters for this week’s game between the Vols and the Gamecocks, with each players’ class and recruiting rankings. If you can’t see the entire chart embedded below, click here for full page:

As before, the color codes are based on the range of 247 Composite numbers on the list. The range starts with deep green at the top and ends with deep red at the bottom. The highest-rated player on the list is Tennessee defensive tackle Kahlil McKenzie.

Here’s the list of starters, sorted by recruiting ranking (full page here):

Obvious caveat is obvious but will be noted anyway: The star ratings and 247 Composite numbers are from the players’ recruiting profiles and are not necessarily indicative of how valuable they currently are to their respective teams. Some lower-ranked guys are doing better than their rankings, and some guys with really high rankings have yet to live up to expectations.

That said, here are a few observations:

• Of the nine highest-ranked players, Tennessee has eight of them.
• Of the next 17, South Carolina has 12 of them.
• Tennessee running back John Kelly versus South Carolina linebacker Skai Moore is a matchup of extremely under-rated players. Both of these guys have far surpassed their respective expectations upon arriving on campus.
• If you’re just going by talent, Tennessee should have the advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Of the nine positions, Tennessee has three 4-stars and two 5-stars. The Gamecocks have two 4-stars.
• South Carolina’s passing game is incredibly young, but incredibly talented.

GoVols247 is citing multiple sources in reporting that redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano is expected to make his first start at quarterback on Saturday against South Carolina. They are also reporting that Quinten Dormady is now “considering his future with the program.”

Dormady started the first five games and went 76 of 137 for 925 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions. Guarantano has seen limited action in four games and gone 12 of 24 for 54 yards and a touchdown.

As we just published a few minutes ago, Jones yesterday appeared to be focused on three things he expected out of his quarterbacks: taking care of the football, good decision-making, and leadership, and he placed an emphasis on the backup getting “leadership reps” when not starting. Guarantano had received national criticism for his demeanor on the bench for the first game against Georgia Tech when Dormady started. There have been rumors that Dormady has already left the team, but for now the report is merely that he is considering his options.

If you read any Vols news on Twitter or elsewhere yesterday, you probably saw a bunch of jokes about #leadershipReps. In case you missed it, here’s what happened: Tennessee head coach Butch Jones used the term during his Monday press conference in response to a question about how he was handling the distribution of reps between his two quarterbacks, Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano. If the onslaught of tweets and articles is any indication, it embarrassed a lot of Vols fans.

If all you’ve seen is the hashtag or the parade of parody it birthed, you’d rightly think the whole thing is ridiculous. In one short day, “leadership reps” has become shorthand for claiming credit for slacking off. Woo, internet.

Jones is largely and primarily responsible for this treatment, of course. He’s used cliches and other phrases like this since he stepped foot on campus five years ago, and he’s bought pallets full of patience from the fan base with them. But now the patience is running thin, and he’s not only suffering from the #1 cause of death of coaching careers — losing — he’s caught in a particularly nasty downward spiral where nearly everything he says or does is instantly presumed to be irrebuttably wrong. I think I just made up a word. . . . Pfffft, guess not. Bummer.

Anyway, as a lawyer, I am generally skeptical of anything that smells like runaway groupthink, and so my first reaction was to wonder whether what Jones had said was actually dumb, or whether everyone was just continuing to make fun of him for losing. And so, I went to the source to have a listen for myself:

The segment is from 12:25 to 13:57:

Here’s the transcript:

Q: “Coach, you mentioned the quarterbacks. They’re still competing, and obviously, you want to get both of them prepared to be able to play and play well. How are you dividing the first team reps with those guys, and does that limit the preparation you can have for those guys if they’re not able to get as many reps with the first team?”

A: “Well, the way we’ve always, you know, handled that situation is, you know, the #1 gets the bulk of the reps, but #2 gets a lot of reps as well. The reps are probably . . . 60/40? And again, the bye week occurred at the right time [because of 50/50?], but also, the repetitions we were able to get Will McBride as well. He’s one snap away from being the #2 quarterback. So, there’s a lot that goes into that. I think that’s also having a system, but like I told our quarterbacks, you don’t have to get a physical rep to get a rep. You can get a leadership rep by having all the wideouts stand around you and going over your progression and going over what you’re thinking. You can get a mental rep. I know you guys are only at practice for a few/couple periods, but [unintelligible — we’re in team?], all of our quarterbacks are 15 yards behind the ball, and when the ball is snapped, they’re going into their drops, and they’re talking about their progressions. So there are a lot of repetitions that can be incurred throughout the course of practice. It may not be a physical rep, but it can be a mental rep and a leadership rep, and as we all know, you need every kind of rep to be able to perform at a high level.”

Okay. First, this was an excellent follow up question from Vince Ferrara. Earlier, Jones had been asked several times questions that were obviously designed to ferret out whether there was going to be a change at quarterback this week, and he deftly dodged it every time. This follow up by Vince asked a specific question about how QB reps were being allocated, which, if answered, could have been an indication of who they were planning to start at quarterback. You can see from Jones’ two “you knows” in the beginning of his response, that he was struggling with the right answer. High five to Ferrara for the question, and kudos to Jones for answering without giving away his secret. Nice little sparring match there.

There was also an important moment earlier that was overlooked yesterday. Someone asked Jones to identify what he was looking for as he evaluated his quarterbacks, and the first three things he mentioned were taking care of the football, good decision-making, and . . . leadership.

With that context, let’s get back to the leadership reps question. If we take off our Fire Butch Jones hats and really listen to him, what he’s saying is that he’s trying to figure out his quarterback problem, but his quarterbacks have a leadership problem.

Let’s look at the question again:

Coach, you mentioned the quarterbacks. They’re still competing, and obviously, you want to get both of them prepared to be able to play and play well. How are you dividing the first team reps with those guys, and does that limit the preparation you can have for those guys if they’re not able to get as many reps with the first team?

Jones was asked a question about how to manage limited practice reps when you don’t have a clear leader and whether splitting a scarce amount of practice between two guys necessarily limited their preparation. It’s not only a great question, it’s a true conundrum for the coach. Do you go all in on one guy and give him all of the limited practice reps? If you do and it doesn’t work (or if you have already tried that and it didn’t work), do you go all in on the other guy? What in the world do you do if neither guy is making it clear that he’s the one?

And that seems to be where we are. I haven’t seen practice, but I’ve seen every snap of every game, and it looks to me like there’s no clear leader. And that means you’re still spending valuable practice reps trying to figure it out.

Then comes the second part of the question: How do you get a guy ready if he’s not getting all or most of the practice reps?

Answer: You teach him how to make the most of being a backup. You teach him to get with his receivers and talk to them about the plays. You tell him to watch the guy taking the practice snap, and you tell him to go through all of the same mechanics and thought processes that he would as if he was the guy getting the actual rep. In short, you tell him to turn his “no reps” into the next best thing, “mental reps.”

The fact that he changed the terminology from “mental reps” to “leadership reps” is an indication of an emphasis on leadership, that he believes his quarterbacks need to become better leaders, and that they need to do it even when they are not the ones getting the practice snaps. That’s all.

It was just over a month ago that ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit called out backup quarterback Jarrett Guarantano during a nationally-televised game for not being engaged as the backup. Everyone agreed. Now, Jones is telling the media that he’s told his quarterbacks what they can do to stay engaged as the backup when they’re not getting the actual practice reps, and he’s getting ridiculed for it.

“Leadership reps” is an odd and amusing phrase, and Jones has made himself an easy target.

But when I hear this, I hear Jones saying that he believes he has a serious leadership vacuum at a position on his football team that requires solid leadership, and he’s trying to do something about it.