What Should We Expect From Jarrett Guarantano?

Tennessee’s new starting quarterback is 12-of-24 for 54 yards in three appearances this season. Those 2.3 yards per attempt obviously must increase for the Vols to have any chance to win, and the play-calling should give him some of the chances Quinten Dormady has had down the field. Guarantano’s struggles in limited action have tempered some of the expectations that usually come when the backup gets his chance. But the context of what other Vol quarterbacks have done in their first mid-season start serves as an additional dose of realism.

Justin Worley also got his first start against South Carolina in 2011, going 10-of-26 for 105 yards in a 14-3 loss. This was a ranked Gamecock squad, but the performance was still one of the ten worst for the Tennessee offense in the last ten years.

Nathan Peterman was a surprise starter against the Gators in 2013. He didn’t make it out of the first half, going 4-of-11 for five yards with three total turnovers. Peterman’s play is a good reminder to never make the first impression the final one:  I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Tennessee quarterback look worse than Peterman did on this day, and after Josh Dobbs ran away with the job against Alabama the next year he never got another look in Knoxville. But he excelled at Pittsburgh and made the Bills’ roster this fall.

The Vols didn’t find the end zone in Josh Dobbs’ first start, but his numbers were significantly better:  26-of-42 for 240 yards, completing 62% of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt. Those kind of numbers aren’t good enough to win every Saturday, but for a first start against an SEC defense (and in Dobbs’ case, a top five Missouri team) it’s not bad. A few weeks later (and without Marquez North), Dobbs would give Peterman’s 2013 Florida game a run for its money by going 11-of-19 for 53 yards (2.8 yards per attempt) and a pair of interceptions against Vanderbilt. But he would spend the next 2.5 years becoming the most productive Tennessee quarterback since Peyton Manning.

All new quarterbacks must be handled with patience, and to that point I wouldn’t consider the book closed on Quinten Dormady either. How long will Guarantano’s leash be against the Gamecocks? Worley, Peterman, and Dobbs each threw two interceptions in their first start. If Guarantano follows suit, will Dormady see any action?

There is one critical difference between Guarantano’s first start and the others: the stakes are much, much higher for the head coach. Derek Dooley made a foolish and/or panic move in pulling Worley’s redshirt in the middle of his second season as coach, but Tyler Bray would return from a broken thumb a few weeks later and Dooley was always going to get a third year. Peterman stepped in for Worley in Butch Jones’ third career game at Tennessee, a decision that turned out to be rash. But now Butch Jones is in must-win territory, and pledged to get there on the shoulders of his redshirt freshman quarterback. How much of the offense will they give him? How much of the offense can he handle? Will the nature of the beast this week make a sleepy Tennessee offense come alive sooner?

Don’t set the bar too high for a quarterback making his first start in the middle of the season. But can it be high enough to beat South Carolina?