Breaking: Vols Land Nation’s #1 JUCO Tight End Dominick Wood-Anderson

Tennessee pulled off a stunner Tuesday afternoon, swooping in and landing a signature from Dominick Wood-Anderson, the nation’s #1 JUCO Tight End and a recruit coveted by blueblood programs across the country.  Thought to be a strong Alabama lean, Wood-Anderson took what was undoubtedly a tremendous visit to Knoxville this past weekend and decided he wanted to be part of what Jeremy Pruitt is building at Tennessee.

“DWA” is without a doubt a plug and play starter at a position of need in Tyson Helton’s pro-style offense and where the current roster has real deficiencies.  As an early enrollee he’ll jump right in for spring practice and the expectation here is that he’ll be a star.  Pairing him with longtime commit and local star Jacob Warren means Pruitt has done yeoman’s work at a real position of need.

What that means for Glenn Beal remains to be seen.  Beal is a huge kid with experience both being an inline blocking TE and getting out in the passing game, and is a high level SEC recruit coveted by LSU and Alabama among others.  He took his OV to Knoxville this past weekend and has been silent since – he’s by all accounts he’s a quiet kid, but that’s rarely a great sign.  That said, with two TEs already in the barn and needs elsewhere who knows if he is a take for the Vols; however, given his size/skill level and potential ability to play DE, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the staff keep recruiting Beal until NSD.

The signing of Wood-Anderson is the strongest sign yet of what Jeremy Pruitt and this staff can do on the recruiting trail.  With more time to build relationships the imagination runs wild thinking what might be next…

Tennessee Vols Early Signing Period: Shrout, Banks, Carvin Pledge

Tennessee would have liked to hit a home run today as the first ever early signing period kicked off, but thanks to a coaching change and a short window for new head man Jeremy Pruitt, UT will have to settle for a ground-rule double.

Several notable junior college linemen elected to sign elsewhere Wednesday, but Tennessee still wound up with some major wins at key positions of need. They’re positioning themselves for a huge month of January that will require a whirlwind, a lot of swings at high-profile recruits and ultimately equal parts excitement and disappointment.

Wednesday appears to be a microcosm of that. The biggest loss was LSU commit and massive offensive lineman Badara Traore, who visited Knoxville last weekend and probably would have been a Day One starter. Instead, he chose to stick with the Tigers, with whom he’d built a long-term relationship.

Pruitt’s frantic jaunt toward the finish line will include plenty of wins and losses, but UT fans excited about the future of the Pruitt regime should focus on the wins. Tennessee has already received signings from punter Paxton Brooks, offensive lineman Ollie Lane, defensive lineman Kingston Harris, and offensive lineman Tanner Antonutti, offensive tackle Jerome Carvin, quarterback JT Shrout, and running back Jeremy Banks, and also expects receiver Alontae Taylor, defensive lineman Greg Emerson,  tight end Jacob Warren, and defensive lineman Brant Lawless to sign as well.

We’ll have expanded capsules on everyone in the coming days here on Gameday on Rocky Top, but for now, let’s take a look at some of the big wins already today.

Jerome Carvin, 6’4″, 330-pound offensive tackle Memphis (Cordova HS)

It stung to the core for Tennessee not to ultimately get the signature of 5-star stud legacy Cade Mays, but landing Carvin helped ease that pain tremendously.

Carvin was thought to be leaning to Mississippi State still, even though Dan Mullen left for Florida. He almost certainly would have signed with the Bulldogs had Mullen stayed, and the coach tried to recruit him to Florida. But Pruitt has recruited Carvin heavily since arriving at UT.

Though Carvin couldn’t get a trip to Knoxville last weekend, he has a long-standing relationship with the university as a long-time target. He’s been there before, and he’s been considering the Vols for a long time. When buddy and teammate Jeremy Banks decided on Tennessee, it made sense for Carvin to go, too.

He’s a big, brawny lineman who can step right in and compete for playing time on a porous unit. Carvin isn’t an elite prospect, but he has the size and strength to be a very good one. Once he learns footwork and mechanics, such as hand placement and a dropstep, he’ll be a good one. He’s going to get some great coaching from Will Friend, too.

JT Shrout, 6’3″, 190-pound quarterback Newhall, California (William S. Hart HS)

Tennessee got its man.

Although Pruitt and Co. tried to hang onto Adrian Martinez despite him not being an ideal fit for what he and Tyson Helton want to do offensively (Helton didn’t recruit him to USC), he ultimately signed with Nebraska on Wednesday.

Pruitt offered another Cali quarterback, and he’s one-for-one in offers/commits. The Vols got a last-minute visit from Shrout last weekend, he said he had an “outstanding” visit and ultimately decommitted from the Bears last night and chose Tennessee today. That’s a testament to what kind of recruiting this staff is capable of, especially considering Shrout had been committed to Cal since last summer.

It took Pruitt a week to swing him, and the lure of playing SEC ball at a big-time program was too much to pass up.

Shrout has all the tools, including pristine mechanics and a live arm. He’s got the size, and though he needs to add weight, he has the frame to do so. Obviously, his 25 interceptions a year ago is a major red flag, but he’s got coachable attributes. They’ll have to teach the kid discernment, but he is a pro-style quarterback, and it looks like that’s the type of offense UT wants to run.

So, that gives him a leg up potentially on the other underclassmen on Tennessee’s roster.

Jeremy Banks, 6’2″, 216-pound running back, Memphis (Cordova HS)

With schools such as Nebraska, UCLA, Miami, Iowa State and Florida knocking down his door, it’s hard to understand why Banks was never on Tennessee’s radar with the previous staff.

Pruitt prioritized the big back since coming on, and the Vols parlayed that love into a commitment from the in-state product. He and Carvin make two big pledges from the Volunteer State.

With the Vols already set with smaller, speedier backs in Ty Chandler, Tim Jordan and Carlin Fils-aime, they needed a load-carrier. Banks looks like that guy. Though UT commitment Anthony Grant won’t be part of this class, Pruitt decided to go in a different direction with who he thought would be an every-down type guy. He quickly zeroed in on Banks (a 247Sports composite 3-star player who is a 4-star on Rivals).

Banks visited last weekend rather than go to Florida, and he came away from Rocky Top knowing that’s where he wanted to spend the rest of his amateur career. He’s a big coup for UT in a relationship that was built quickly but firmly.

Reading the Tennessee Tea Leaves: Vols Looking Good for Quarterback JT Shrout

What wound up being a surprise visit from a “mystery” quarterback last weekend appears as though it will manifest itself as a Tennessee quarterback commitment.

JT Shrout, a 6’3″, 190-pound quarterback from William S. Hart High School in Newhall, California, and a one-time California Bears commitment was going to choose between UT and Cal tomorrow.

On Tuesday night, he officially decommitted from coach Justin Wilcox’s Bears, according to his official Twitter account. This seems to be good news for Tennessee.

Though Shrout threw for 3,064 yards as a senior, he tossed an eye-popping 25 interceptions to go along with 27 touchdown passes. He’s still the No. 26 pro-style quarterback in the nation, according to 247Sports.

After an injury forced him to miss much of his high school career, this season was his first to start. Yes, he threw far too many interceptions, but folks everywhere are enamored with his upside, too.

Back in July, Yahoo.com’s Pete Thamel — he of the Tennessee bashing during the Greg Schiano debacle — wrote about the unheralded prospect:

But it’s safe to project Shrout, a 6-foot-3, 190-pound rising senior, as one of the biggest steals of the 2018 recruiting class. That was the consensus of coaches at the QB Collective, including one NFL coordinator who told Yahoo Sports that Shrout was by far the most polished prospect there. Shrout wowed all the coaches with his technical precision, polished footwork and smooth throwing motion. “I think of all the quarterbacks who were here, if I were an NFL general manager or quarterback coach, [he’d be] the guy who could step in on day one and fundamentally work within an NFL system,” said Sage Rosenfels, a longtime NFL backup who works as private quarterback coach in the Omaha area. “His drop was smooth. His fundamentals were very efficient and he throws a great ball.”

That’s a testament to the type of offense the Vols want to run under offensive coordinator Tyson Helton. It’s obvious this will be a pro-spread style that will utilize multiple receivers in West Coast route trees, feature running the football and downfield passing. It’s time to get back to real football, folks.

This is a vital piece to Tennessee’s puzzle, and the Vols really need him to pull the trigger, especially after Adrian Martinez flipped to Nebraska and UT cut Michael Penix loose to sign elsewhere. Shrout would be the only quarterback in Tennessee’s 2018 class, and he will be able to step right in and compete with Jarrett Guarantano, Quinten Dormady and Will McBride.

Shrout is an unfinished product, but he is the type of moldable piece for Helton. If he winds up choosing the Vols tomorrow, it will be a nice pickup. He has all the tools.

 

Don’t Let Tennessee’s Early Signing Day Fool You

 

Don’t look at the recruiting rankings right now.

No, I mean it. Don’t. Please.

A Tennessee recruiting class that once climbed as high as third nationally before coach Butch Jones’ fiefdom came crashing down, the lull in leadership broke down relationships and the administration botched the coaching search [though may have landed the hire] is currently in shambles.

If you’ve patronized the message boards lately or read Twitter, you’d think Tennessee’s class has collapsed around new head coach Jeremy Pruitt. That’s not so. At all. Local writer Mike Griffith even went as far today as to say Pruitt is “struggling.” That’s laughable.

It’s not a great look yet again for UT that it had favorite son and recruiting organizer extraordinaire Austin Thomas stole from LSU before a deal fell through. It was unfortunate for the Vols that Chris Weinke was set to leave Alabama with Pruitt to come to UT before his alma mater Florida State came calling.

But don’t look at this incomplete recruiting class and judge Pruitt’s body of work. It’s very much a work in progress. He couldn’t develop relationships before this early signing period where players can sign tomorrow, and he couldn’t help that some of the elite players who were once committed have a frontrunner mentality and dropped the Vols.

It’s been a perfect storm that’s caused the Vols to plummet out of the recruiting rankings.

When Tennessee was recruiting under Jones, the Vols enjoyed highly ranked classes yet failed to develop that talent. It’s not uncommon to look at UT players as seniors who didn’t progress much from their freshman seasons. We all know now Jones struggled to elevate players’ talent once they arrived on campus.

Did you ever think part of that was the type of player Jones recruited, though?

I’m not knocking any of the current kids on Tennessee’s roster, but it’s clear that Jones recruited to a certain system — a system he called “infallible” — and that system failed famously, especially once Joshua Dobbs left for Pittsburgh. When Pruitt came in [finally] to coach the Vols, he took one look at UT’s class and basically gave a metaphorical shrug and a “meh.”

Then, the culling ensued.

Yes, Tennessee absolutely would have loved to land 5-star offensive lineman Cade Mays, a Knoxville Catholic player whose father was a standout. But he decided to go in a different direction, no matter how much Pruitt and UT coach Phillip Fulmer tried to sway him otherwise. It’s going to hurt seeing him playing for Clemson or Georgia next year, but nothing Pruitt could have done would sway him.

Absolutely, the Vols were happy with 4-star quarterback and Cali prospect Adrian Martinez coming to Knoxville, even though he didn’t play at all last year and isn’t an ideal fit for the pro-style offense coordinator Tyson Helton wants to run. But when Scott Frost arrived at Nebraska and made Martinez a priority, he fell in love with that new system in Lincoln. Honestly, he’s a better fit for what they want to do, even though he would have been a heck of a quarterback at UT potentially.

The rest of the players were guys Pruitt just didn’t think fit the system. Florida quarterback Michael Penix will land at a quality program, but he is more of a dual-threat kid, and Tennessee didn’t prefer him. Better to be up front and honest with guys than have them take up a scholarship spot that can be used elsewhere, have them unhappy and quit. Who wants that?

Do I understand Pruitt cutting a guy loose like Jamarcus Chatman and then getting a commitment from Kingston Harris, a defensive lineman who struggled to find the field as a senior at prestigious IMG Academy? Nope. But I know he’s a big body with a bunch of potential, and if anybody knows the kind of players he needs to run the type of 3-4 defense Pruitt employed at Alabama, Florida State and Georgia that won championships, it’s the man who shaped those units.

Why are we grinding our teeth that Pruitt saw a Jones class and disassembled it? Last I checked, Pruitt is coaching in the College Football Playoffs; Jones is sitting at home after his team went 4-8. And Mays [as well as Jaycee Horn, who just committed to South Carolina] are guys who decommitted on Jones’ watch, long before Pruitt came into the picture.

The Vols already went after another quarterback — California commitment JT Shrout — who will choose between UT and the Golden Bears tomorrow. If you look at his senior season stats, you will cringe. He threw 27 touchdowns and 25 interceptions. Yikes. But he is 6’3″, a traditional dropback passer with pristine mechanics that have NFL scouts already excited, according to Yahoo.com’s Pete Thamel.

Tennessee will be watching instate offensive lineman Jerome Carvin, his teammate 4-star running back Jeremy Banks and Shrout, among others, tomorrow. If a couple of those guys pull the trigger, it could set the stage for a big finish for Pruitt and the Vols.

Pruitt had exactly one recruiting weekend to prepare for [remember, he was announced mere days before getting Alontae Taylor back on campus, and he recommitted]. With a week to prepare for that day, Pruitt went JUCO-heavy on the visits, and we’ll see if any of them pay off with pledges tomorrow. UT certainly needs immediate help, especially on both lines and in the secondary.

Pruitt’s staff believes it can get in on some big names after the early signing period. The nation’s second-ranked outside linebacker J.J. Petersen has had Alabama at the top of his list forever, but Pruitt is his lead recruiter with the Crimson Tide. He told SEC Country this week that UT now leads. If Pruitt can convince some of those guys he’s already built relationships with when he was with the Tide to follow him to Tennessee, the Vols could land a few.

Also, it remains to be seen who Pruitt will hire in his last three assistant spots. Will one of them be South Carolina wide receivers coach and elite recruiter Bryan McClendon, as rumored? Pruitt knows recruiting is the name of the game in the SEC, and he’ll get somebody who can be relentless on the trail. Whoever that is could bring with him targets, too.

And [hold your nose, Vols fans] if Alabama looks good in the playoffs and Pruitt’s defense shines, it will be good publicity for UT, and some positive vibes could come the way of Tennessee’s recruiting class still. There’s still a month-plus for Pruitt to build relationships once he gets on campus for good. That’s not a ton of time, but it is enough with some preexisting relationships to get some guys on campus and signed.

This class isn’t going to wind up a high-riser in the least, but the Vols could fill some needs, and if it gets in the top 20 with all the turmoil that’s transpired, it’ll be OK. Pruitt is going to build things his way. We don’t know if that’s a winning way because he’s never led a program, but he has won a lot of championships as an assistant.

So, tomorrow, when all the excitement is happening and Mays makes his choice to go somewhere other than Knoxville and the Vols wind up with some guys who weren’t even on the radar a week ago, don’t get down. This is only the beginning of the Pruitt era, and with what Jones left UT, it isn’t an overnight fix.

Pruitt is going to do it his way. And as he said in his press conference, Vols fans shouldn’t worry about the guys they don’t get but the ones they do.

Aight?

 

What Did We Learn?

This loss hurts in the feels; in an environment like Sunday’s there is no other option in defeat. And that’s good:  the first ranked match-up in Thompson-Boling Arena since 2010 produced the close game we should expect from such an encounter, and the inevitable pain from losing it. In falling short (and especially falling short in the final minutes due to a pair of preventable turnovers), Tennessee missed the chance to make a memory for a younger generation of students and basketball fans.

But what hurts in the feels often finds its way to recovery in our heads. My head tells me the biggest takeaway from Sunday’s game isn’t the missed opportunity, but the way Tennessee gave themselves one. Yesterday’s performance against North Carolina proves earlier ones against Villanova and Purdue were no fluke. Tennessee has played three of the top eight teams in the nation (in KenPom). They led North Carolina for 37 minutes before falling by five. They beat Purdue while playing from behind throughout the first half and the first two minutes of overtime. And they led Villanova by 15 early and were still within three in the final minute of an eventual nine-point loss.

Don’t undervalue that Purdue win. Villanova is the number one team in the polls and the best team in the nation by a healthy margin in KenPom. But Purdue (sixth) is better than North Carolina (eighth) in the latter metric. And Tennessee made huge plays in the final minutes of regulation and overtime to win that game. “Tennessee can’t get it done against great teams,” isn’t the story. In three Top 10 match-ups the Vols are 1-2 with real opportunities to be 3-0.

This team is no fluke and no flash in the pan. In those three games Tennessee shot 36.3% against Purdue, 45.3% against Villanova, and 37.3% against North Carolina while going a combined 24-of-68 (35.2%) from the arc. These games haven’t been close because the Vols have been on fire. Tennessee hasn’t been lucky. The Vols are simply playing good enough basketball on both ends of the floor to give themselves a chance to win against the best teams in the country. That’s a real sentence in year three under Rick Barnes.

Tennessee hosts Furman (KenPom #134) on Wednesday, then has a pair of non-conference games remaining:  at Wake Forest (KenPom #65) on Saturday, and at Iowa State (KenPom #59) in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge in January. Split those games and go .500 in the SEC, and you’re 18-12 with a Top 50 RPI headed to the SEC Tournament. But Tennessee has played well enough to expect more than a, “Can we make the tournament?” conversation.

The SEC will test Tennessee’s consistency. But I don’t believe their ceiling to be any lower today than it was before tip-off yesterday; if anything, the ceiling is reinforced. Tennessee isn’t just playing with the best teams in college basketball, it’s giving itself a chance to win. The Vols beat Purdue, were within one possession of Villanova in the final minute, and gave away an opportunity to beat North Carolina. But there is nothing but opportunity in front of this team.

Visit Weekend Preview: The Last Weekend Before the Early Signing Period

Although this coming weekend will be the second official visit weekend of Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s tenure, it will be the first one that features numerous uncommitted prospects.  And with a list incredibly long on both talent and, due to the number of JUCO players, experience, it’s an incredibly important one.  The new early signing period makes it that much more important, because for some players it’s their last visit before they make a final decision on where they’ll sign in just one week, while for others it’s Tennessee’s final on-campus chance to make a big impression with just under one more month (and likely trips to see other schools) until the second and final signing day.  In a welcome stroke of luck, Thompson-Boiling Arena will have 20,000 screaming Volunteers packed in as they root on the Basketball Vols vs. UNC.  Those kind of things are small, but showing kids, especially who aren’t from the South like many of the incoming prospects, how rabid this fanbase is, always helps.

Below is a quick look at this weekend’s visitors:

Confirmed commitments for the weekend

Jacob Warren/Ollie Lane – Warren and Lane are longstanding local commitments who plan on signing in December and enrolling in January.  Both are solid prospects who ideally would redshirt in 2018.  However, given the dearth of bodies and proven depth at their respective positions both could be in line for snaps in their freshmen season should they take advantage of being in for Spring Practice and summer workouts.  With the large number of uncommitted prospects on campus it will be good to have All Orange guys helping peer recruit

Important Unofficial Visitor

OL Jerome Carvin – Pending logistical details being worked out, Carvin is trying to get back to Knoxville for another visit after taking his OV back in late September for the UGA game.  While it will obviously be much better if he can make it, his desire to do so (especially in lieu of previous plans to try and get to UF) is a great sign.  If he can make it in I think he’s on Commitment Watch.  If not we might have to wait a few more days, but I still think this is trending towards the good guys

Confirmed Uncommitted Official Visitors

All of the remaining confirmed official visitors are prospects the new staff has either offered or reoffered – regardless, they are all players the prior staff was not involved with.  We discussed the status of their respective recruitments in this piece, and suffice it to say that the Vols would very likely take a commitment from almost any and all of them if they get the chance. The group is a good mix of high school players and JUCOs, and each of them play at a position of need.

Uncommitted: December Signees Confirmed for this Weekend

OL Badara Traore – #1 JUCO OL and current LSU commit, this is a new development but one that makes some sense.  He’s not only teammates with Johncarlo Valentin (below) but as an LSU commit he’s also got ties to new UT staffer Austin Thomas, former GM for the Tigers.  Assuming he follows through with the visit, and you can be sure LSU will do everything they can to stop it, one has to think UT has a great shot here.  One other side note is that LSU has just hired a brand new (albeit well regarded) OL coach, which means Traore has no better relationship with his position coach there than he does with UT coach Will Friend

RB Jeremy Banks – Teammates with Jerome Carvin, Banks would be a big add at the RB position due to his size and production.  He’s on my Commitment Watch list

RB Greg Bell – One of FOUR teammates from Arizona Western C.C. coming in this weekend, two of which are December signees and early enrollees.  UT’s biggest competition appears to be Nebraska, where he has already OV’d along with Louisville (where has was committed), Boise, and Utah.  His is an interesting situation, as it is unclear how tied together these four teammates’ recruitments are.  At the same time, Tennessee’s only current RB commitment, Anthony Grant, is far from solid (he’s OV’ing Virginia Tech this weekend), so how many RBs the staff is going to take it up in the air.  All things equal my preference for one RB spot would be for Banks over Bell, but there are likely a lot of things happening in the background…

WR Jaron Woodyard – Another of the quartet from AWCC, Woodyard is actually committed to Nebraska but will be taking his trip to Knoxville this weekend anyway.  Numbers are WR are fluid – with Alontae Taylor back in the fold there is still room for at least 1-2 more, but the pecking order is unknown.  Copeland (below) is a clear take, but that recruitment is likely to go into late January.  Is Shocky Jacques-Louis (also an early enrollee) back in play after Pruitt and Helton were in his home last night?  Like Bell, how much does Woodyard play into the recruitment of his teammates?  As The Dude would say, lotta ins, lotta outs…

TE Dominick Wood-Anderson – A true national recruit, Wood-Anderson is regarded as an instant impact TE prospect and is highly coveted by the likes of Alabama, Texas A&M and Jimbo Fisher, and other bluechip programs.  He’s the jewel of the AWCC Four, and landing him might be a stretch – just getting him on campus represents a pretty big coup, this one orchestrated by new staffer (brought by Pruitt from Alabama) Brian Niedermayer.  However, it’s 100% worth the effort, and he’s an instant starter if he signs with the Vols, a selling point Pruitt and Co. will be hammering home all weekend.

Uncommitted: February Signees Confirmed for this Weekend

Each of the players below are high value targets, not just because of their talent but also because each of them play positions where there is a big need on Tennessee’s roster.  The list below is a mix of high school and JUCO prospects, most of whom we’ve taken a look at in the linked piece above.  As noted, it’s imperative that the Vols make a very big impression on these prospects, as each of them will wait until February to sign.

WR Jacob Copeland

OL Jahmir Johnson

OL Johncarlo Valentin

TE Glenn Beal

DE Kingston Harris*

CB Olaijah Griffin*

*Two relatively new offers

Harris is a DL from IMG Academy in Florida with a decent offer list who Pruitt just offered and is immediately coming to Knoxville for an OV.  My guess is that he’s lower on the board, but we’ll see

Griffin is a borderline 5-star CB from California who received an immediate offer from the staff, has seen Nidermayer in his home, and is now going to be on campus this weekend.  Interestingly, Griffin has a lot of family in East TN and has spent quite a bit of time in the area, so he’s not the typical Cali kid for whom the likelihood of leaving the West Coast is ultraslim.  He’d be a bigtime get, and although he’s probably not going to commit on the spot if the Vols can make a big impression this weekend they could find themselves in the mix for the next month

Tennessee vs North Carolina Preview

It’s been six years since Tennessee played a game like this, seven since they played one in Knoxville. Let’s go.

Relax about the MiG.

RPI Forecast gives Tennessee an 88.9% chance to finish with 19 or more regular season wins. Their projections shouldn’t be taken as gospel today, but become more reliable every night. A 19-11 finish projects to an RPI of 36 headed to the SEC Tournament. That dances.

Tennessee can already check the boxes next to strength of schedule, quality wins, and road/neutral wins. The SEC is first in conference RPI, has eight teams in Ken Pomeroy’s Top 50 and the entire league in the Top 85. Plus seven SEC schools in the December 9 Bracket Matrix update, where the Vols are a five seed.

Relax. Almost every night of conference play will provide an opportunity. This one isn’t about March. Like Villanova, this is about Tennessee’s ceiling.

The Defending Champs

North Carolina was 27-7 heading to March, fought off a stiff challenge from Arkansas in the second round, then beat Kentucky by two in the Elite Eight and Oregon by one in the Final Four. It wasn’t easy, but the Tar Heels cut down the nets by beating Gonzaga in the title game. Justin Jackson and Tony Bradley became first round draft picks, but plenty of talent returns; several Tar Heels have made the most of expanded minutes.

That’s especially true for Luke Maye. He averages a double-double at 19.9 points and 10.5 rebounds. Joel Berry, who did not play against the Vols last season, is second on the team in scoring at 16.0 points per game. Kenny Williams adds 13.4 points and 55% shooting from the arc, and Theo Pinson averages 9.4 points and 4.4 assists per game. Those four do the majority of the heavy lifting for Carolina, all averaging between 28-32 minutes per game.

They’ll come to Knoxville 9-1 and no fan of close games. The lone blemish came via #4 Michigan State: the Tar Heels shot 24.6% from the floor and 1-of-18 from the arc in a 63-45 loss in the Phil Knight tournament. In every other game, North Carolina has shot better than 47% and scored at least 85 points.

That includes a 19-point win over Arkansas (#30 KenPom) and a 15-point win over Michigan (#36 KenPom). In their only true road game before this weekend, Carolina beat Stanford (#110 KenPom) by 24.

Like us, with more talent

Last year Tennessee led by 15 in the first half before an avalanche of offensive rebounds buried them in the second. Tony Bradley had seven of those in 20 minutes; this time around the match-up should be more even.

It’s remarkable how similar the Vols and Tar Heels have been in the early going, having both faced enough competition to feel good about the sample size:

  • North Carolina is 34th in field goal percentage (49.5%) and 59th in field goal percentage defense (40.1%). Tennessee shoots 45.2% from the floor, leads the nation in assist percentage, and is 30th in field goal percentage defense (38.3%).
  • North Carolina is 42nd in three-point percentage (39.9%). Tennessee is 21st (41.2%). But neither team lives by the three:  UNC is 258th nationally in three-pointers attempted, UT 305th.
  • North Carolina plays through Luke Maye (6’8″, 240 lbs). Tennessee plays through Grant Williams (6’7″, 241 lbs).
  • These are two of the very best teams in the nation at defending inside the arc. North Carolina is 16th in two-point field goal percentage defense (41.6%), 32nd in blocked shots, and (like Villanova) does a great job defending without fouling: the Tar Heels are 21st nationally in opponent free throw attempts. The Vols are 7th in two-point field goal percentage defense (40.4%), and tied with Carolina for 32nd in blocked shots.
  • North Carolina is 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (36.6%). Tennessee is 45th (35.9%).
  • North Carolina’s only loss is to the number two team in KenPom. Tennessee’s only loss is to number one.

The biggest difference between us is tempo:  Carolina plays the 15th-fastest pace in college basketball. Tennessee isn’t slow at 117th, but has played a diverse set of opponents without being overly interested in dictating a faster pace. The Vols beat Lipscomb (12th in tempo) and Georgia Tech (343rd in tempo) in their last two games. Tennessee plays a much more balanced rotation, with seven players getting between 20-27 minutes. In their history of Roy Williams vs Rick Barnes, SB Nation’s Tar Heel Blog points out when Barnes’ teams have won, they usually beat Carolina at their own game:  crash the boards and score a bunch of points.

I expect the Vols to have an opportunity to get this thing done; Villanova looks like the best team in the country by a healthy margin right now, and Tennessee certainly had their moments then. North Carolina is certainly more talented, but Thompson-Boling will present an environment this version of the Tar Heels hasn’t seen just yet. It may simply happen that we get beat by a more talented team. But it may simply happen that the environment is enough to push a good Tennessee team to victory over a great opponent. The Vols also can’t let the atmosphere and the opportunity get them out of their own element; most of this roster knows it should have won this game last year, which should help in that department.

Sagarin’s predictor at RPI Forecast gives the Vols a 42% chance to win; ESPN’s BPI gives the Vols a 48% chance. We’ve come a long way in a short time. If Tennessee continues to share the basketball well on offense and defend at a high level on the other end, the Vols can get this done.

Sunday, 3:00 PM ET, ESPN. Go Vols.

 

Tennessee Leads the Nation in Assist Percentage

There will be plenty of words to come about Sunday’s match-up between #20 Tennessee and #7 North Carolina, only the Vols’ third ranked non-conference match-up in Knoxville since Thompson-Boling Arena opened 30 years ago. But first, a note about something the Vols are doing so well it should impact their performance this season far beyond this weekend.

Last year, assists were Tennessee’s best predictor of success. The Vols were 13-1 when they had 16+ assists, 3-15 when they had 15 or less. The point guards were new, Grant Williams was a freshman, and Robert Hubbs was sometimes left to simply do it himself. In Tennessee’s season opener last year, the Vols had only four assists in a loss to Chattanooga.

Fast forward one year, and the Vols are already 3-0 with 15 assists or less, all three victories coming against major conference opponents. Tennessee is defending well enough to beat above average and even good teams, even when shots aren’t falling. This, in turns, makes Tennessee an above average and maybe even a good team.

What might make Tennessee a great team:  the Vols are first in the nation in assist percentage (stats via Sports Reference).

Tennessee gets an assist on 70.8% of its made baskets. Last year that number finished at 54.9%, 123rd nationally. In their first seasons, Jordan Bone (2.9) and Lamonte Turner (2.7) were the only players to average more than two assists per game. So far this year Bone (3.6) and Turner’s (2.4) numbers are solid, while Grant Williams has gotten involved as an inside-out passer with 2.6 assists per game. And James Daniel, who everyone assumed would provide a scoring punch, currently leads the team in assists with 4.0 per game.

We’ve been making this point since the preseason: last year the Vols weren’t a good shooting team at 42.2% from the floor, 289th nationally. They didn’t add a bunch of pure shooters to the roster this year and lost Hubbs’ ability to get his own shot. If Tennessee was going to shoot the ball better, it would have to come through getting better shots.

And through eight games against the nation’s 15th toughest schedule in RPI, the Vols are doing just that. Grant Williams averages 16.1 points in 27.1 minutes per game. And when defenses collapse on him, the Vols are sharing the ball exceptionally well, getting open shots, and knocking them down. Tennessee is shooting 41.2% from the arc, 21st nationally, while ranking only 291st in three pointers attempted. There is such discipline and intent behind what the Vols are doing on offense, paired with a defense holding opponents to 38.3% from the field.

This is a well-coached, well-executing team. And that should carry Tennessee a long way toward March, no matter happens on Sunday.

 

Gameday on Rocky Top Bowl Pick ‘Em

Our Gameday on Rocky Top Bowl Pick ‘Em via Fun Office Pools is now open! Games start this Saturday, so join the pool and get your picks in now. If you’ve played in any of our contests before, you should have received an email inviting you to join.

The pool uses confidence points for all 39 bowls plus the national championship: pick the winners straight up, then assign a confidence value (1-39) for each pick. It’s a great way to keep up with all the bowls over the next three-and-a-half weeks.

The winner gets a Gameday on Rocky Top hoodie. Any questions, leave them in the comments.

Good luck!

The Board Gets Bigger: A Look at New Offers

Here’s where it gets really fun.  As new Coach Jeremy Pruitt builds an all-star recruiting staff that brings prior relationships with bigtime players from across the South (and indeed the whole country), the existing boards on Offense and Defense are quickly being bolstered with new offers and renewed interest from players who has previously moved on from the Vols.  Below is a look at newly offered players as well as a few others for whom the new staff will likely get a new look – the good news is that it’s an extensive list, the bad news is that there isn’t a ton of time for some of them…

RB

Jeremy Banks – High school teammates with major OL target Jerome Carvin, Banks is a bigger back who had a huge senior season that has generated a ton of new offers from major schools.  He got a Vol offer last week and is very interested – he will be OV’ing this weekend.  Whether he signs in December remains to be seen, but this is his 5th OV so there might not be much more for him to see.  He seems like a potential commitment this weekend depending on how it goes, and him being good friends with top OL target Jerome Carvin makes him that much more valuable

Greg Bell – Bell is from the same Arizona Western CC as high priority OL target Jahmir Johnson and TE Dominick Wood-Anderson (see below).  Bell has Nebraska as a top choice along with Louisville, both of whom he has already OV’d.  Tennessee is hoping to get him to accompany Johnson to campus this weekend for an OV to Knoxville and is fighting Auburn and ASU for that visit.  If he does make it in one has to think the Vols have a good chance, as he’s signing in December.  If it comes down to Bell or Banks the Vols for the second RB spot (assuming Anthony Grant is solid, which isn’t 100% sure) Tennessee will have an interesting choice to make as Bell is an early enrollee and could represent a package deal with either/both of Johnson/Wood-Anderson

Jerome Ford – A Florida native who’s had a big senior year, Ford has an interesting offer/college list: while he has a standing Alabama offer (and an OV scheduled this weekend) and his other top choice is USF.  He got a UT offer this week so it will be interesting to see how much mutual interest there is.  He’s a likely December signee so the odds here are long, especially since there is a good chance he commits to Bama soon

WR

Jacob Copeland – So, Copeland is a stud.  Period.  And the Vols were not even in the picture before the new hire – he had decommitted from UF and was considered a Bama lean.  But he’s got a great relationship with Pruitt and after an in-home by some assistants last week he’s OV’ing to Knoxville this weekend.  Here’s the (pardon the pun) catch though: this will be his first OV and he’s very likely to wait until February to sign.  Obviously the best case scenario is he’s blown away by UT and the new staff, commits and signs on 12/22.  I’m an optimist, and stranger things have happened, but that seems unlikely.  More likely is Tennessee becomes a major player in this recruitment but UT has to fight through multiple other OVs (Bama, maybe UF, etc) until February.  Copeland is a major talent though, so swinging big here is worth every effort.

Rashod Bateman – Kid flat dominated GA 7A competition in Tifton Co (South GA) and is a stud basketball player too, yet is a Minnesota commitment who until last week’s tender from Tennessee had very little SEC interest.  He’s loved by local recruiting industry writers and feared by local high school coaches, and it could be too late for anyone else to get into this one as he currently plans to sign with the Gophers in December.  However, one has to think the UT offer opened his eyes, and the hope he is he gives the Vols a shot.  South Carolina just offered as well, and UGA is sniffing around too and could likely end things with an offer, so this one could get interesting.  We’ll see…

Geordon Porter – The latest offer as of Tuesday afternoon, Porter is a very recent Notre Dame decommitment.  He’s from CA with a great offer list that strangely does not include USC (Helton) that brings speed and athleticism to the table.  In fact, he is considered to be one of it not the fastest WRs on the West Coast.  It remains to be seems how interested he is in Tennessee, but he’s got two OVs left, having already seen ASU, Utah, and ND.  Clearly the new staff is trying to leverage Helton’s connections in California and we’ll see soon if they bear any fruit

TE

Dominick Wood-Anderson – The nation’s #1 JUCO TE has certainly enjoyed the process, giving multiple staffs indications that he was going to commit.  Alabama has been one of those, and no doubt Pruitt has a prior relationship here (Helton might too).  There is talk he might OV to Knoxville this weekend – if he does the Vols have as good a shot as any, and he’s a plug and play starter both due to his own immense talent as well as the dearth of quality and quantity at the position

Glenn Beal – A large body with experience both being an inline blocking TE and getting out in the passing game, Beal comes from a strong John Curtis HS program in New Orleans.  He is a high level SEC recruit coveted by LSU and Alabama among others.  Upon being re-offered by Pruitt he has immediately set up an OV for this weekend.  While that certainly shows legitimate interest, Beal is likely (though not 100%) a February signee, so the Vols are likely trying to make a giant impression and hope he’s ready to jump in; otherwise they’ll be fighting major powers who will have OV’s left in their arsenal

Michael Ezeike – Former Oregon commit whose body type is in the style of Jason Croom and current WR turned TE Princeton Fant.  Got an offer last week, but has already taken all five of is OVs so this one seems like a longshot for now – if he makes his way to Knoxville on his own dime I’ll happily change my tune.

OL

Dwayne Wallace – Grad transfer from Cal who sat out last year due to an injury, Wallace is a massive man who started nine games for the Bears in 2016.  He appears to have quite a bit of talent, and with the dire state of Tennessee’s projected 2018 OL he’d be an important add.  He’s set to enroll somewhere in January, and as a grad transfer he’s the perfect fit – ready to play but a one-year rental who won’t hold the new staff back as they try to load up with a large 2019 class.  He’s scheduled to OV to Tennessee this weekend (starting Thursday) and there is a good chance he ends his recruitment while in Knoxville.  He’s previously OV’d to Miami and FAU.

Jahmir Johnson – Teammate of the aforementioned Bell, Johnson was recruited by the previous staff and has had interest in the Vols for a while.  He got a quick reaffirmation of his UT offer from the new staff and is now set to OV to Knoxville this weekend.  When he signs is unclear and he’s definitely not an early enrollee, but he’s a real talent and like Wallace would likely be in line for a lot of immediate playing time.  Ideally both of these guys commit this weekend and fortify not only the 2018 class but also the OL for the upcoming 2018 season.

Johncarlo Valentin – Valentin is a center/guard prospect who has been thought to be leaning to Baylor, and has other offers from the likes of Missouri (OV’d last weekend), Temple and Kansas.  Notably though, he signed with OU out of high school so he’s got some pedigree.  He’s teammates with a new top CB target Jeremy Webb (below) both of whom the Vols are pushing to get to campus this weekend as they are both December signees.  He’s a big body with some athleticism and is a good addition to the OL board.

Chase Brown – Yet another JUCO OL, Brown is a Pittsburgh commit who received an offer over the weekend.  Interest is unclear, and he’s an early enrollee – which gives him more value but means Tennessee either gets him to campus this weekend or misses out – but what is clear is that Pruitt and OL Coach Will Friend see the need for immediate help at the position and are acting accordingly.

DL

Coynis Williams – Massive Auburn DT commit, Miller got an instant offer to UT from Pruitt will to OV to Tennessee this weekend.  However, he’s not signing until February so the Vols will have to make a huge impression to be legit contenders.  Likely a longshot, but he’s very talented and a perfect NG fit in Pruitt’s 3-4.

Jalen Cunningham – Another very large NG prospect offered by the new staff, Cunningham is thought to be an Ole Miss lean with Alabama also in the mix.  Pruitt’s got a relationship here and the new staff just offered today – if they can convince him to either not sign in December (likely with the Black Bears) or OV this weekend after the Alabama-Mississippi All Star Game Tennessee will have a real shot here.

Andres Fox – Currently an AU/Alabama battle, Fox is another Alabama native who didn’t have much interest in the Vols until the new staff arrived.  How much he has now is undetermined, but the long pass rusher isn’t signing until February so UT will take a swing.

Javeon Becton – UGA commit from current Vol Eric Crosby’s HS, Becton is a pass rusher who knows Sherrer well.  He just got a Tennessee offer and seems interested – in fact, he was in Knoxville for the UGA game in late September so he’s been to campus once already.  Another February signee, the Vols have time here to make a push.

Michael Williams – A QB/DE (you read that right) from Louisiana, Williams has offers from the likes of Bama, LSU, and others.  He’s not particularly tall at around 6’1, but he’s over 260 pounds yet moves like a 225 pounder.  Likely a 3-4 OLB/Rush DE, Williams got a Vol offer this weekend.  We’ll see if he reciprocates the interest, but he has the look of a typical Bama/LSU defender who is both big and fast and makes plays.

Jordan Davis – Bama commitment from Memphis (Southwind), Davis nearly flipped to the Vols over the summer at Orange Carpet Day only to be told no by his mother.  Pruitt obviously has a longstanding relationship here, and Davis is also very close with Carvin.  Some rumblings he might be open to giving the Vols one more look, but that seems to have been shot down (again, by his mother).  If he signs in two weeks it will be with Alabama – if not, all bets are off.

Daniel Carson – Newly offered big-bodied DE from Missouri, Carson has OV’d to both Texas and Miami and has one scheduled this weekend for Nebraska.  His interest in UT is undetermined at this point – he’s another who if he signs in December it likely won’t be with Tennessee but if he’s a February signee the Vols will have a shot.

LB

JJ Peterson – Arguably the top prospect who Pruitt and the new staff gave Tennessee the best chance for as soon as they put on the Vol gear.  Peterson now not only has ties to the staff (he loves Pruitt, plays for Pruitt mentor Rush Propst, and is from GA so knows Sherrer) but also to the UT program – Colquitt Co. has produced Vols in back to back classes in Jaquan Blakely and now Shawn Shamburger.  Long considered a Bama-AU battle, Peterson has said he will OV to the Vols before signing in February.  He’s instantly one of if not the most talented LB on the roster if he signs with the Vols – this will be a knock down drag out fight and one that could yield a crown jewel of the class should Tennessee win out.

Quay Walker – I’m projecting a bit here because there’s been no smoke about Walker (a Bama commit) really looking at UT.  But he’s not only close with Pruitt but also is being heavily recruited by UGA (Sherrer).  He’s a February signee, and I wonder if he’s a guy who Pruitt leaves alone until after he’s officially finished with his tenure as Bama DC and then tries to get heavily involved with.  He’s a high caliber prospect and like Peterson would represent a bigtime injection of talent to the UT LB corps.

DB

Marcus Murphy – An “athlete” who played a lot of QB for his high school team but is projected as a CB, Murphy not only got an early offer from the new staff but also received a quick in-home visit from fellow Mississippi native Robert Gillespie and new DB Coach Terry Fair.  Murphy is a Mississippi State commitment and plans to sign in December; however, despite a good OV in Starkville this past weekend he is planning to OV to Knoxville this coming weekend immediately after the Alabama-Mississippi game.  Could be one to watch…

Jeremy Webb – Teammates with Valentin at ASA in Brooklyn, Webb has one OV left before signing on 12/22 and enrolling in January.  Webb is one of those JUCO CB prospects who blow up late, and the 6’3″ CB is deciding between UT and UF for his final visit.  Should he decide to visit Knoxville things will be pointing up here for the Vols, who currently have zero DB commitments and need talent and depth at the position.

Rayshad Williams – After visiting Knoxville at least once over the spring/summer, Williams, a Memphis Whitehaven native, committed to Vanderbilt when UT didn’t come through with a firm offer.  Obviously an excellent student, Williams is a very large CB (6’3″) and fits what Pruitt looks for in a high level prospect at the position.  Though he hasn’t been mentioned with UT for months, Tennessee high school relations staffer Patrick Abernathy (who has relationships throughout the state and is a possibility to remain on in some capacity) is on the road while Pruitt fills out his staff and is set to visit Williams today.  We’ll see if anything comes of it, but Williams has long liked the Vols and is not signing with Vanderbilt in December due to not being 100% sure of his decision, so there might be an opening here.

Isaac Taylor-Stuart – Big-timer from CA who’s been considering Alabama for a longtime, Stuart got an immediate offer from the new staff and instantly inserted the Vols into his Top 6 alongside the Tide, UGA, USC and Texas A&M (where he’s already OV’d).  He’s clearly not afraid to leave the West Coast, and as a February signee he’s got time to sort through things and build a relationship with the Tennessee staff.  Hyper-talented and would be an instant contributor in Knoxville.

Eddie Smith – Longtime TCU commit who also got a quick offer from Pruitt, the Louisiana native fits the Pruitt mold of long CBs.  Smith hasn’t been very vocal about either the new offer or the strength of his TCU commitment, but it sounds like there might be a shot for the Vols to get more heavily involved.

Nikko Hall – California native who plays both sides of the ball (WR and DB), in my opinion this one is a long shot unless and until Tennessee can get him to campus.  He’s incredibly talented though and likely has a prior relationship with Helton, so it’s worth trying.