There will be plenty of words to come about Sunday’s match-up between #20 Tennessee and #7 North Carolina, only the Vols’ third ranked non-conference match-up in Knoxville since Thompson-Boling Arena opened 30 years ago. But first, a note about something the Vols are doing so well it should impact their performance this season far beyond this weekend.
Last year, assists were Tennessee’s best predictor of success. The Vols were 13-1 when they had 16+ assists, 3-15 when they had 15 or less. The point guards were new, Grant Williams was a freshman, and Robert Hubbs was sometimes left to simply do it himself. In Tennessee’s season opener last year, the Vols had only four assists in a loss to Chattanooga.
Fast forward one year, and the Vols are already 3-0 with 15 assists or less, all three victories coming against major conference opponents. Tennessee is defending well enough to beat above average and even good teams, even when shots aren’t falling. This, in turns, makes Tennessee an above average and maybe even a good team.
What might make Tennessee a great team: the Vols are first in the nation in assist percentage (stats via Sports Reference).
Tennessee gets an assist on 70.8% of its made baskets. Last year that number finished at 54.9%, 123rd nationally. In their first seasons, Jordan Bone (2.9) and Lamonte Turner (2.7) were the only players to average more than two assists per game. So far this year Bone (3.6) and Turner’s (2.4) numbers are solid, while Grant Williams has gotten involved as an inside-out passer with 2.6 assists per game. And James Daniel, who everyone assumed would provide a scoring punch, currently leads the team in assists with 4.0 per game.
We’ve been making this point since the preseason: last year the Vols weren’t a good shooting team at 42.2% from the floor, 289th nationally. They didn’t add a bunch of pure shooters to the roster this year and lost Hubbs’ ability to get his own shot. If Tennessee was going to shoot the ball better, it would have to come through getting better shots.
And through eight games against the nation’s 15th toughest schedule in RPI, the Vols are doing just that. Grant Williams averages 16.1 points in 27.1 minutes per game. And when defenses collapse on him, the Vols are sharing the ball exceptionally well, getting open shots, and knocking them down. Tennessee is shooting 41.2% from the arc, 21st nationally, while ranking only 291st in three pointers attempted. There is such discipline and intent behind what the Vols are doing on offense, paired with a defense holding opponents to 38.3% from the field.
This is a well-coached, well-executing team. And that should carry Tennessee a long way toward March, no matter happens on Sunday.
Bring on the Tar Heels! GBO!
Great points made in this analysis… a team playing like a Team… Go Vols… Beat the Tar out of those Heels!!
There’s a lot to be said for getting/taking/hitting open looks, but I’d suspect the 3P% will regress a bit as the season goes on…probably the same for assist percentage.
But as you pointed out, defense always travels, so even if the offense hits some rough patches, I think this team has enough discipline as the defensive end to squeeze out some wins they didn’t get the last 2 years.
Excellent. Was totally unaware of that particular efficiency but it certainly rings true to what I’ve seen on the floor thus far this year.
Probably not anymore!
Ha! Down to fourth now (68%), but still first among major conference teams.
I looked at the stats at halftime and told my dad in disbelief that we didn’t have a single player who had more than 1 assist.
Number goes up, obviously, if some of those in-out-in-out shots stay down early in the second half. I thought we were still getting good looks until around the 12 minute mark, then at the end of the game we just went to Admiral/Grant Williams…which isn’t necessarily the wrong move, just more simplistic.
UNC really turned the screws on defense in the 2nd half…Vols were almost able to survive that, but couldn’t quite get it done.