Gameday on Rocky Top

The Vols have won six of the last ten in this series in Knoxville, including the last two. On the surface it might feel like these two teams are going in completely different directions:  the Vols are a frustrating 0-2 in league play after a stellar run through the non-conference, while Kentucky followed up a frustrating loss to UCLA with an absolute beat down of Louisville and a 2-0 start in conference. But Sagarin gives the Vols a 46% chance to win; I’d expect another close one.

Close is going to be the nature of the beast every night in this league. Of the ten SEC teams to play two conference games, only two (the usual suspects from Florida and Kentucky) are 2-0. The Cats themselves beat Georgia and LSU by a combined eight points. Texas A&M was the best team in the league a week ago, now they’re 0-2 with a 22-point loss at Alabama and a 17-point loss at home to Florida. Welcome to this year’s SEC.

This Year’s Lexington D-League Squad

We bid farewell to Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, and Isaiah Briscoe. In their place are, you guessed it, five freshmen.

6’9″ Kevin Knox gets 14.6 points and 6 rebounds, with 6’5″ Hamidou Diallo just behind at 14.4. Facilitating much of this is 6’6″ Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 12.1 points, 4.1 assists, and 2.3 steals. 6’7″ PJ Washington goes for 10.6 and 5.3 rebounds, and 6’0″ Quade Green adds 10.5 per game. Knox is on the floor by far the most at 33.1 minutes per game.

What Kentucky does well:

• Defending the three-point line. The Cats give up an impressive 29.2% from the arc, ninth-best nationally. Georgia and LSU went 8-for-45 (17.8%). Tennessee hasn’t been living from outside, and as many have noted, Jordan Bowden could probably use an even greener light. But the length and athleticism you can assume from a Calipari squad is once again making it difficult for opponents from the arc:  last year they finished 12th nationally in this stat.
• Two things Auburn was good at:  shot-blocking, where the Cats are 20th nationally in block percentage, sending back 15.7% of opponent shots. PJ Washington is a factor here, but two guys playing fewer minutes are also really strong:  Nick Richards averages 1.4 blocks in 16.9 minutes, and Wenyen Gabriel averages 1.4 in 22.8.
• …and offensive rebounding, hooray! After Auburn’s absurd performance Tuesday where they rebounded half of their misses, the Tigers are fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage at 38.1%. Kentucky isn’t far behind at 36.6%. I don’t know if we should be worried about seeing the same problem twice in a row, but I’d imagine Barnes is happy to have the teaching moment.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Turn Kentucky over. If a young Calipari team is bad at something…it’s free throw shooting, of course (68.8%). If there’s a second option for this team, however, it’s turnovers. UK is 199th nationally in turnover percentage, giving it away on 16.6% of their possessions. Tennessee is 61st nationally in opponent turnover percentage at 19.2%. The home floor can help. The Vols have not been shy about going up-tempo when the opponent wants to run; if that happens here, Tennessee needs to come out on top in the turnover department. The Cats had 18 turnovers in their loss to Kansas; 12 of them were steals.
• Be the more mature team. Sometimes the non-juggernaut Calipari teams take a minute to adjust to the night-in, night-out grind of SEC play. The 2016 team started 3-2 in league play, 2-1 in 2014, 3-2 in 2013, and 5-5 in 2011. Tennessee obviously isn’t setting the SEC world on fire right now, but has far more experience with this routine and could take advantage.
• Bring the necessary effort. I’d wager what happened on the offensive glass against Auburn won’t happen again, at least to that extent. But Tennessee also has to focus in if it wants to keep living in the same conversations the Vols have enjoyed since the Bahamas. Winning this one should keep Tennessee in the Top 25, would give another Top 25 win to their resume, and allow the Vols to keep thinking about contending for the SEC title and a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. But an 0-3 start in league play keeps you out of the conference title conversation by default, and would swing the overall conversation back to, “Wait, let’s just make sure we get in this thing.” The Vols have been better than that for the majority of the year. The necessary effort against Kentucky is a 40-minute effort; many, many Tennessee teams as good or better than this one have played 32-to-36 good minutes against the Cats and lost by 6-10 points. I’d expect Barnes to get more out of this team Saturday night than he did on Tuesday. And as it’s done all year, that should be enough to give Tennessee a chance to win.

It’s just the 15th ranked vs ranked game for the Vols at Thompson-Boling; the Vols are 10-4 in those games after the loss to North Carolina. A late tip for your Titans playoff viewing pleasure:  9:00 PM on the SEC Network. Go Vols.

The Vols led 28-14 ten minutes into the game, but it only took Auburn five minutes to erase that lead. The Vols led 61-56 with 8:30 to play, but Auburn was up 80-68 a little more than four minutes later.

When things got away from Tennessee today, they got away in a hurry. This scene played out at the end of the Arkansas game due to foul trouble, but today the Vols’ struggles were more troubling: dominated on the offensive glass at home.

And dominated is an understatement. Auburn finished with 22 offensive rebounds, only getting more defensive rebounds (24) because they grabbed two in the final seconds with the game out of reach. The Tigers rebounded half of their misses. The result:  74 shot attempts to Tennessee’s 58. The Vols actually shot the ball better (41.4% to 40.5%) and both teams were below average from three (roughly 29% each) and stellar at the line (Vols 81%, Auburn 86%). But when one team gets 16 more shot attempts, that team is going to win.

Auburn is a good offensive rebounding team, but Tennessee came into this game as a good rebounding team period…and the Vols got outworked and outplayed. Maybe the early lead took away a sense of urgency, maybe Saturday’s loss at Arkansas still loomed. Either way, Auburn looked like they wanted this one more, and they took it in Knoxville.

The loss sends Tennessee to 9-4 (0-2), and it gets no easier with Kentucky calling on Saturday. Anyone using the phrase “must-win” should step away from the keyboard, but it’s an important one to reclaim momentum and get another big win. If the Vols want to stay among the nation’s best in the Top 25, they’ll have to prove it against Kentucky. And they’ll have to bring more fire than they showed tonight to do so.

The turnovers in the last few minutes are frustrating, but Tennessee’s biggest cause for concern is defending great guards. Villanova’s Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson combined for 46 points on 15-of-26 from the field. And Arkansas got 61 from Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon on 20-of-36.

Tennessee countered with outstanding play from its own guards on the offensive end in Fayetteville: 21 from Jordan Bone and 17 from James Daniel. The Vols will need more of the same in the future if they fail to improve on the other end. Foul trouble was a significant factor at Arkansas, and it stands out in amazing ways in the play-by-play. With multiple players on the foul hampered with four fouls, the Vols had to defend differently.

Admiral Schofield hit a three to put the Vols up 68-60 with 4:04 to play, then picked up his fourth foul ten seconds later at the under four timeout. Arkansas scored 60 points in the game’s first 36 minutes (1.67 per minute). They scored 35 points in the game’s final nine minutes (3.88 per minute, a 156-point pace for a full game). In the last four minutes of regulation and all of overtime, the only Arkansas possessions that did not end with points were the final sequence in regulation, and two missed free throws by Daniel Gafford with 40 seconds to play in overtime.

Grant Ramey points out the Vols are 16th nationally in fouls per game. Obviously, that has to come down. We saw how quickly Tennessee’s defense – still ninth in KenPom’s ratings – can fall apart against a good offense when multiple components are slowed or sidelined with foul trouble. But even when fouls are less of an issue, Tennessee’s backcourt defense looks like its biggest weakness entering the new year.

The good news:  the Vols still had a chance to win. And they’ll get another shot at a good backcourt right away.

Auburn’s moment arrives

The Tigers haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2003 and the NIT since 2009. Last year Bruce Pearl got them above .500 for the first time since that 08-09 season. This year they’re off to a 12-1 start, and are a 10 seed in the January 1 Bracket Matrix.

In classic Pearl scheduling, the Tigers faced a bunch of RPI-friendly mid-majors. They lost to Temple on a neutral floor, but have wins over Winthrop, Dayton, UAB, Middle Tennessee, and Murray State. In their marquee test, they hosted UConn in a down year for the Huskies (126th in KenPom), and won by 25.

That means their two most difficult games so far will come this week:  at #23 Tennessee on Tuesday, then hosting #22 Arkansas on Saturday.

Auburn is a lot like us. With 6’11” Austin Wiley and 6’7″ Danjel Purifoy – two of their top four scorers last year – out indefinitely due to potential ineligibility surrounding the ongoing federal investigation, the Tigers play no one bigger than 6’8″. Nine players get 13+ minutes; the Vols have nine getting 11+.

Auburn hopes to be good, but is yet to play a great team. Tennessee hopes to be great, and has played several already.

What Auburn does well:

• Defending inside the arc. Opponents shoot just 41.7% against the Tigers from two, the 11th best defensive percentage in the nation. This is in part because, like Tennessee, Auburn is an excellent shot-blocking team despite their lack of size. The main threat here is 6’8″ sophomore Anfernee McLemore, who tosses 3.4 shots per game in just over 20 minutes of action. Auburn blocks 19.2% of opponent shots, fourth nationally, and McLemore leads the nation in this stat in sending back 18.7% of the shots taken while he’s on the floor.
• Offensive rebounding. Auburn is 14th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.2%). 6’3″ Desean Murray, a Presbyterian transfer, has been particularly good here with 36 offensive rebounds on the year.
• Free throw shooting. Hold your 2007 Ohio State jokes. The Tigers’ 77.1% is 20th nationally; Auburn’s top four scorers all shoot between 79-82%. You do not want to be behind this bunch in the final minute.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• Defend the three. Auburn launches 26 threes per game, 8.5 of them from Bryce Brown (hitting 35.5%). This won’t be anything new for Tennessee:  Vol opponents have taken 237 threes, the 13th most any team has seen this season. The Vols give up just 34.2% on the year from three, and volume shooting teams like Furman (25.9%) and even Villanova (35.3%) have struggled to find victory that way against Tennessee. If Auburn wins from the arc, they will be the first to do so against Tennessee this year.
• Continue to share the ball. The Vols have dropped from first to eighth nationally in assist percentage, but still share the ball on 65.5% of their made baskets. Auburn doesn’t create a ton of turnovers, and won’t be the first fast-paced team the Vols have seen this year. Good offense via good shots is still Tennessee’s best plan of attack.
• Make free throws.  While the Tigers shoot their own free throws well, they’ve certainly been helped by the opposition shooting just 73.8% against them. After a solid start to the season, Tennessee is just 44-of-66 (66.7%) in the last three games. Eight missed free throws at Arkansas made a difference. Tennessee needs this to trend back in the other direction.

The Vols are 4-1 against Bruce Pearl at Auburn, but this is the first one where the ex-Tennessee coach isn’t the lead story. That’s a credit to both Pearl and Rick Barnes for getting these two teams where they are now from where they were when both took over. The Vols need a rebound after a tough loss to open SEC play. Auburn needs a win to validate their place on the bubble. It should be another good one.

7:00 PM ET Tuesday, ESPNU. Go Vols.

A huge part of being a great basketball team is overcoming adversity, and that’s the simple reason why this Tennessee team has to settle for “very good” right now.

It’s going to take a major breakthrough for the Vols to take that next, logical leap.

One of the best, deepest UT teams in the past few years — and easily the best so far under Rick Barnes — again built and held a big, late lead against a quality opponent on Saturday. But just like in previous losses to No. 1 Villanova and top program North Carolina, the Vols squandered it down the stretch against a very good Arkansas team in Fayetteville.

What transpired was the Vols blowing a nine-point advantage with 3:30 to go, and after the game went into overtime, the Razorbacks broke things open for an 11-point advantage before UT stormed back to fall just short, 95-93.

Yes, Tennessee was a six-point underdog against a 10-2 Hogs team on the road, so the Vols weren’t necessarily “supposed” to win this game, despite being ranked 19th. But, as the game transpired and played out, the Vols were supposed to win. They were the better team, more disciplined, deeper, and they were in control for essentially the entire time.

But Barnes’ bunch couldn’t bring it home. Again.

The Hogs’ 40 minutes and 94 feet of hell finally got to Tennessee, which couldn’t keep its composure against the press down the stretch. Things built upon themselves, Arkansas began to believe it could come back, and everything snowballed on the Vols.

It didn’t help matters that UT leading scorer Grant Williams was saddled with foul trouble for important stretches and was called for a ticky-tack foul that replays showed was a clean block. Therefore, the Vols didn’t have him down the final stretch of the game or in overtime. It showed. Then, early in the extra session, Admiral Schofield fouled out, leaving the Vols too small to play their game.

That’s not only two key cogs in the size of the frontcourt, it’s also two of the three biggest offensive pieces of the puzzle for Barnes. This was some serious adversity, but getting the calls on the road is rarely going to happen. UT needed to overcome that, and it couldn’t.

An ill-advised, missed Tennessee 3-pointer late started the Arkansas flurry, and UT failed to hit some crucial free throws down the stretch. Jordan Bowden missing two of three free throws when he was fouled taking a 3-pointer, and Jordan Bone missing the first of two free throws in regulation with the Vols down one that could have kept the game from going into overtime were pivotal, crucial blunders.

We can crow about the one-sided officiating — which seems to be the norm when Doug Shows is on the whistle — but there was other business the Vols should have taken care of that it could control. Instead, Tennessee falls to 9-3 and 0-1 in a rugged SEC that is going to be hard to navigate all season. Games like this, the Vols desperately need to win, and this is one that is going to sting for a while.

Right now, Tennessee certainly looks like an NCAA Tournament team; we all know that. But there is a lot of basketball season left to play, so when you have opportunities like this one on the road in the palm of your hand and you let it slip away? It has major implications and ramifications in the long run. Now, the Vols must head home to take on another very good conference foe in Auburn.

Just how tough is Tennessee’s early-season conference slate? After the home game against the Tigers, the Vols host Kentucky. Then, they have to travel to the biggest joke of a basketball court in all of college sports to take on Vanderbilt at Memorial Gymnasium, and that’s always a difficult game. The Vols then host fifth-ranked Texas A&M, travel to Missouri and then go to South Carolina, a Final Four team from a season ago.

That’s a brutal stretch.

So, when you look at the upcoming stretch of games, a sure-fire tournament team can go to an afterthought in a hurry. That’s why Saturday hurts so much; the Vols should have won this game in Fayetteville. Say what you want about the foul calls or the one-sidedness or how much a team is hamstrung when it doesn’t have its leading scorer. All of that is accurate.

But that’s why Barnes gets paid the big bucks, and that’s why the Vols have to overcome.

Remember when I said this was the best and deepest Tennessee team the Vols have had in a while? It’s also one of the youngest, and that’s been evidenced by the way UT played at times down the stretch against other, quality opponents.

This is a team that can play its way and impose its will on teams for large swaths of the game, but if it doesn’t close out those wins, it doesn’t matter.

Williams picking up his fourth foul with 3:33 to go and getting another one that sent him to the pine with 2:10 left is ridiculous. But it’s basketball; and Tennessee still held its own destiny in its hands.

As stifling as Tennessee’s defense has been at times this season, it crumbled down the stretch against the Hogs. UT’s point guard play was much-improved than what it’s been with Bone and James Daniel, but the defense was lax. Arkansas’ guards Daryl Macon and Jaylen Barford played like the senior combo they are, combining for 60 points in the win.

That’s too much for Tennessee to allow.

So, this was an awfully difficult loss to stomach, and it’s one that could sting more later. There’s no reason to hit the panic button, and there’s no reason to be worried about the long-term ramifications, but this is now three games against excellent competition that could have been three Tennessee wins. At the very worst, the Vols should be 1-2 against ‘Nova, UNC and the Hogs. Instead, they’re 0-3.

This needs to be a teaching moment and a hard lesson, but UT can regroup and return. This team needs Williams on the court and it needs to find a formula that works down the stretch. If those two things don’t happen, the rest of this season may not play out the way we’d hoped.

The first game of SEC play might be the most difficult, depending on which set of power ratings you ask. RPI Forecast uses Jeff Sagarin’s, which give Tennessee just a 28% chance to win at Arkansas tomorrow. That’s the lowest percentage left on the schedule – the Vols are currently getting 30% in Rupp Arena – and one of only five remaining games where Tennessee is the underdog (at Missouri 40%, vs Texas A&M 46%, at Alabama 48%).

So yes, it’s a big test. As we know, the Vols have already played three of the nation’s top eight teams in KenPom. They beat one and took the other two to the finish line. Arkansas is 22nd in KenPom, just behind the Vols at 19th. But this time, Tennessee has to get it done on the road.

Arkansas does not like close games.

The Razorbacks are 10-2. They beat Oklahoma (#16 KenPom) in the Phil Knight tournament 92-83, then lost to North Carolina by 19 the next day. The Tar Heels were +16 in rebounds, shot 8-of-16 from the arc, and had 21 free throw attempts to eight for Arkansas.

They blew out UConn by 35 two days after that, then lost at Houston (#40 KenPom) by 26 six days later. The Cougars were +9 on the glass, but were also particularly good at shutting down Arkansas: Houston (34.5%) and UNC (37.5%) are the only teams to hold them under 43% from the field.

Then they dusted Minnesota (#41 KenPom, 14th in the AP poll at the time) by 16 a week later in one of their best performances of the season:  57.4% from the field, 43.5% from the arc, 23 assists to nine turnovers. Since then they’ve beaten Troy, Oral Roberts, and CSU Bakersfield by a combined 87 points.

They lost Dusty Hannahs and Moses Kingsley from the group that pushed North Carolina to the end in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. But their three senior guards have been a terror: Jaylen Barford averages 18.6 points and 46.4% from the arc, Daryl Macon gets 15.3 on 43.7% from three, and Anton Beard goes for another 12.1. And 6’11” freshman Daniel Gafford has poured in 11.7 points and 6.3 rebounds in just 20 minutes of action, while guard C.J. Jones has gone from role player to double-digit scorer at 10.5 per. In both losses, this guard-heavy lineup suffered in the post:  Luke Maye had 28 points and 16 rebounds while Gafford played only 15 minutes with foul trouble, and Houston’s Devin Davis (only 6’6″) had 28 and 10 while Gafford had just five. Tennessee will need Grant Williams to have similar success.

What Arkansas does well:

• Offense, in general. 50.3% from the floor (21st nationally) and 41% from the arc (also 21st nationally). Arkansas is 19th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings, and they score 90 points per game playing the 29th fastest pace in college basketball; only North Carolina is faster among Tennessee’s prior opponents.
• Turnover-free basketball. This is Arkansas’ most remarkable stat:  despite playing at such a fast pace, the Razorbacks are 10th nationally in total turnovers and fourth in turnover percentage, giving the ball away on just 12.1% of their possessions. Arkansas’ Twitter account points out Daryl Macon has 17 consecutive assists without a turnover. The primary ball-handlers are seniors who don’t succumb to pressure. This is an extraordinarily efficient offense.
• Blocking shots. The Razorbacks are 30th nationally in block percentage, sending back 14.5% of opponent shots. Gafford gets 1.9 per game, a little less than Moses Kingsley’s 2.6 last season, but still effective in limited minutes. Good news here:  Tennessee is even better at this, sending back 16.2% of opponent field goals, 21st nationally.

What Tennessee can do to win:

• The Vols have plenty of experience with great offenses, and remain one of the nation’s best defensive teams. Tennessee has played the nation’s 14th most difficult schedule in terms of opponent offenses via KenPom. The Vols are first among major conference teams in that metric, and it’s about to get better/worse. Having already faced offenses nationally rated second (Villanova), seventh (Purdue), 18th (North Carolina), and 27th (Wake Forest), the Vols now face Arkansas (19th), Auburn (29th), and Kentucky (25th) in a row. Half of Tennessee’s first 14 opponents will have had a Top 30 offense. And yet, the Vols are 35th nationally in field goal percentage defense at 39% and rated ninth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. The common denominator in defeat is an elite offense getting the best of Tennessee’s great defense:  Villanova and UNC are still the only two teams to shoot better than 40% against UT. Will Arkansas get there?
• Do you crash the offensive glass or set up transition defense? Tennessee chose the former against Villanova and North Carolina, getting offensive rebounds on 40.6% of their misses against the Wildcats and 39% against the Tar Heels. It almost paid off both times. But against another fast foe in Wake Forest, the Vols only grabbed 22.2% of their misses. However, Tennessee held the Demon Deacons to 37.7% from the floor and forced 19 turnovers. As noted, it’s unlikely the Vols will force a ton of turnovers against Arkansas. But Rick Barnes will have to choose if he wants to try to win this game with second chances on the offensive end, or if Tennessee’s first chance can be enough to try to win by slowing Arkansas down. North Carolina beat Arkansas via the offensive glass (and, I’m sure, by being North Carolina). We’ll see what Tennessee decides.
• Grant Williams dominates. It almost worked last year. Robert Hubbs got the headlines with 21 points in a four-point loss in Knoxville, but Williams had 15 points and 11 rebounds (six offensive) in 28 minutes. Moses Kingsley had just seven points. The blueprint is there against Gafford; if Kyle Alexander can help, even better.

It’s the first SEC impression, but could end up being a lasting one. All the pieces are there for the Vols to interest Arkansas in a close, great game between two teams gunning for the conference crown. The Vols have earned the fun they’ll find in Fayetteville.

Saturday, 1:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.

LSU is at Memphis today, and Kentucky faces Louisville on Friday. Then SEC play tips off, with Tennessee and Arkansas doing the honors Saturday at 1:00 PM ET.

Five years ago, you could have confused the SEC for a mid-major league. Florida dominated a newly-expanded conference in 2013, rated second nationally in KenPom before bowing out in the Elite Eight. Missouri got in as a nine seed and lost in the first round. And Marshall Henderson shot Ole Miss to an SEC Tournament title, pushing the Rebels into the tournament as a 12 seed.

And that was it.

Kentucky, Alabama, and Tennessee just missed the field, each earning a one or two seed in the NIT. The league’s three NCAA Tournament teams were the only ones to finish in the KenPom Top 50. And the basement was a mess, dead weight around the necks of tournament hopefuls:  Auburn at 197, South Carolina at 209, and Mississippi State at 256 in KenPom.

Changes in coaching and scheduling made a difference, but not immediately. Florida, Kentucky, and Tennessee (barely) got in the next year, with all three advancing to the Sweet 16. Kentucky’s undefeated bid was the story in 2015, but four other SEC teams made the field. But the league was back to just three in 2016, with Vanderbilt bowing out in Dayton.

While the top tier still needed work, the bottom was getting better. Two years ago Rick Barnes’ first squad just missed the Top 100 in KenPom at 103, while Missouri (159) and Auburn (189) brought up the rear. Last year the middle leveled up: while Kentucky and Florida did their usual at the top, the SEC’s Top 12 teams were all in the Top 90. Missouri (156) and LSU (172) still struggled mightily, but South Carolina’s surprise run to the Final Four gave the league some additional juice. Five teams got in, and three made it to the Elite Eight.

The SEC got five in the field in 2017, 2015, and 2011, but six hasn’t happened since 2008. By my count, seven has never been done.

This year, in the Christmas Eve edition of the Bracket Matrix, the SEC has eight on the dance floor.

The best SEC since…

This is easily the best SEC since expansion those five years ago, and has put itself in the running for a much longer conversation. The league is currently third in conference RPI and first in out-of-conference strength of schedule, with ten games against the Big 12 (first in conference RPI) still to come. Top to bottom, the SEC is one of the nation’s best basketball conferences:

Texas A&M leads the way at 11-1, seventh in KenPom. Kentucky is 9-2 and 18th.

And then there’s us.

What’s a good goal for Tennessee?

The Vols are one spot behind the Wildcats at 19th in KenPom and join Kentucky and Arkansas at 9-2 in the Top 25 in those ratings. Those four make up the league’s top tier entering conference play. Ending the season in that top tier is a great, practical goal for Tennessee.

Finishing in the top four in SEC play would both give the Vols a double bye in the SEC Tournament, and secure a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. Right now the Vols are a five seed in the Bracket Matrix, while RPI Forecast projects Tennessee to finish 10-8 in league play. There are no cupcakes this time around; the league will not be easy. Finishing as a six seed or higher would keep the Vols away from college basketball’s very best until at least the Sweet 16. Or you could consider the fact that the Vols have already played three competitive games with college basketball’s very best and won one of them, and just let this thing play out hoping for the most favorable seed possible.

RPI Forecast also gives the Vols a 75.7% chance to finish the regular season with at least 19 wins, which would make the Vols an NCAA Tournament lock. It’s tough to have a conversation about goals for a team that started the year picked 13th in the SEC and is currently flirting with 13th in the nation. This season so far has been a gift, but this team has earned it:  the Vols haven’t been lucky, just good.

So if they go 9-9 in league play and just get into the tournament, this year would still have to be considered a success. But the Vols have earned the right to dream a little bigger.

On that:

Tennessee’s conference schedule is relatively easy, but extraordinarily front-loaded.

As usual, the Vols get Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina twice. You know what you’ll get from UK every year. Vanderbilt is a conundrum at 5-7 with no bad losses. South Carolina is rebuilding without Sindarius Thornwell, P.J. Dozier, and Duane Notice.

This year the Vols draw Georgia and Ole Miss as their other two home-and-home opponents. The Dawgs are 10th among SEC teams in KenPom, the Rebels 13th. Vanderbilt is 12th, South Carolina ninth.

The Vols and seven others make up the top eight teams in the SEC. And of the other seven, the Vols play six of them only once.

And they will play five of them in their first six SEC games, plus visit Memorial Gym.

• at Arkansas, Saturday December 30
• vs Auburn, Tuesday January 2
• vs Kentucky, Saturday January 6
• at Vanderbilt, Tuesday January 9
• vs Texas A&M, Saturday January 13
• at Missouri, Wednesday January 17

The bulk of Tennessee’s resume will take shape by mid-January. As it looks right now, Tennessee’s only opportunities for quality wins after this are in Rupp on February 6 and vs Florida on February 21. Maybe we’ll be able to add at Alabama to that list by February 10.

So if the Vols start, say, 3-3 in SEC play? That’s far closer to pretty good than it would be to the negative overreaction some casual basketball fans would have. In Sagarin’s ratings at RPI Forecast, the most difficult game left on Tennessee’s schedule is the next one.

We’ll know a lot more about this team and what kinds of conversations we can have for March in just three weeks. Tennessee has to make the most of its early opportunities. Fortunately, the Vols have been doing that all year.