The Best Predictors of Tennessee’s Success

Tennessee is capable of winning in so many different ways, it’s hard to create a formula for their success. Last year assists were the go-to stat: the only way the Vols were getting good offense was through good ball movement, and if that didn’t happen they didn’t defend well enough to make up the difference. Tennessee is still strong here (12th nationally in assist percentage, fourth among power conference teams), but that stat is less predictive of success this season: the Vols beat Purdue and South Carolina while assisting on less than half of their makes.

But that stat informs what has become Tennessee’s other leading indicator of success:  three-point shooting.

The Vols don’t rely on the three the way more and more teams are doing. Tennessee is 291st nationally in three-pointers attempted, averaging 20.4 per game. But the Vols are 55th nationally in percentage, hitting 38.3% from three on the year. Threes are a function of the offense, not the offense itself, and Tennessee hits a higher percentage largely because their ball movement generates good looks.

Of the five players who average at least two attempts per game, only Lamonte Turner shoots less than 37%. There’s been plenty of talk about Jordan Bowden shooting more (still at 51.7% on the year despite an 0-for-7 stretch last week), but Tennessee’s patience is one of the reasons he’s shooting so well to begin with. James Daniel (37.5%), Jordan Bone (40.5%), and Admiral Schofield (43.4%) are all reliable targets as well.

Good ball movement leads to more assists, especially when you’ve got such a productive option in the paint in Grant Williams. And more of those assists are coming because the Vols are getting and hitting open threes.

The two best predictors of Tennessee’s success, then:

  • The Vols are 9-0 when at least 64% of their made baskets come off an assist, 4-5 when they don’t.
  • The Vols are 10-1 when shooting at least 36.4% from three, 3-4 when they don’t.

And the one can cover the sins of the other. Two of Tennessee’s lowest assist percentage wins were at Vanderbilt (43.3%) and South Carolina (43.5%). But the Vols shot 53.8% from the arc in Nashville and 45.5% in Columbia. Likewise, the Vols shot just 29.4% from the arc against Texas A&M and 36.4% against Kentucky, but assisted on 64% of their made shots against the Aggies and a staggering 92% against the Wildcats.

And when all else fails, the Vols can still win with defense:  Tennessee was average in both against Purdue (39.1% from the arc, 48.3% assist percentage), but held the Boilermakers to 37.3% from the floor and got the win in overtime.

A dozen games remain in the regular season; there’s plenty of time for three-point shooting to go up or down. But this continues to be a well-coached team that gets shots they like, and knocks them down at a winning rate.

 

Gameday Today: Loving the Tennessee Chameleons, Saban copies Butch Jones, and more

Hoops

Coming off a big road win against South Carolina, Rick Barnes and his guys return home to host Vanderbilt tonight at 7 p.m. Vandy, of course, will be devoting a great deal of attention to Grant Williams, who went off for 37 points against the Commodores in Nashville earlier this season. Will Williams will himself to another scoring feast or will he merely divert the attention and free up space for another big night for Lamonte Turner or another teammate? Nobody knows, as this team’s identity this season may best be described as chameleony. Or maybe shapeshiftery. Tune in to ESPNU tonight at 7 p.m. to see what shape we become for this game.

Rick Barnes met with the press yesterday and said stuff that was caught on all manner of recording devices. Here he is caught in the act of talking about his team:

Notably: Defense. He likes defense. It apparently gives birth to offense or something like that.

And yes, it’s okay to start joking around and having fun and enjoying something again. The mourning period for the 2017 football season is over. Remove your sackcloth, take a shower, and get on with your sports life. I know you are wary of falling back in love with Vols’ sports teams. I can relate.

But this basketball team isn’t going to hurt you:


Sure, they will likely lose in the end, but it’s a tournament sport, and every team but one suffers that fate. Enjoy the ride.

Football

If you’re wondering where we’re at as we inch closer to National Signing Day, GoVols247 has you covered with a Recruiting Stock Report ($$$). One particularly interesting note on this side of the paywall is that coach Pruitt and two other Vols coaches met with 5-star cornerback Olaijah Griffin last night. He’s the nation’s No. 3 cornerback and No. 25 overall prospect in this year’s class, and while USC may have the crystal ball advantage, Pruitt is setting his stun gun on Woo.


See that mysterious black bag that Pruitt is holding? It’s full of magic and hope.

The Papa speaks, imploring us first to hold our horses on Jauan Jennings because he’s not officially back on the team yet and is going to screw it up unless he changes, and second, setting realistic expectations for how the teams may have to play as careful underdogs for a while until we put the finishing touches on this thing.

It appears Fulmer was serious, though, when saying he was going to build something to compete with Alabama, because he’s continuing to build an army of coaching support staff, adding an assistant director of football operations and an assistant strength coach.

Other fun stuff

Nick Saban is reportedly hiring Mike Locksley to replace Brian Daboll as his new offensive coordinator. Why is this fun? See if this reminds you of anything:

Alabama coach Nick Saban has reportedly settled on the replacement for former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and all he had to do was walk down the hall.

Ding, ding, ding! Yes, that’s how Butch Jones found Larry Scott. We need an offensive coordinator, and he was, like, right there, so we hired him!

Okay, so just because it exploded into a thousand death shards here doesn’t mean it will happen there, but a guy can dream, can’t he?

Also, this piece from Dari Nowkhah about the struggle to keep his fandom from showing while covering the Rose Bowl is well done. I wonder when someone is finally going to challenge the idea that old-school professional sports journalists must continue to labor under a pretense of objectivity. It really doesn’t have to be that way. You can be a fan and still be fair and professional, and it will likely result in a lot more fun and a corresponding increase in ratings as well.

And finally, have you ever wondered how the players in the Super Bowl were rated as high school recruits? SB Nation has the info.

 

January 22nd: Official Visit Weekend Recap

As we noted in the weekend preview, the Vols were set to welcome an interesting set of visitors to the Hill this past weekend.  As we also discussed, many of Tennessee’s top targets were on official visits elsewhere.  Schools UT is fighting with for certain prospects saw action as well, so there is a lot to recap from the weekend:

Tennessee Visitors

ATH Anthony Grant was on campus and by all accounts had a really nice trip.  He was told by the staff that they are recruiting him as a RB, although it seems that it’s clear to him that moving to defense is at least a real possibility.  He’s a kid who doesn’t seem prone to being overly emotional, and while he is definitely enamored with UT as a school and the football program in particular he clearly isn’t ready to shut it down.  He got an offer from FSU late last week and will OV to Tallahassee this coming weekend.  Many people, particularly Jesse Simonton from Volquest.com, have maintained that Grant won’t end up a part of this class for he Vols, and between his continued interest in the three ACC schools on his list (VT, UNC, and now FSU) and the incredibly limited spots left for Pruitt and Co. that is a reasonable take.  But he remains committed for now so it’s anyone’s guess where he ends up

DE John Mincey, who last week decommitted from Arkansas, came into his official visit feeling the Vols and exited with an even stronger affinity. He’s a large young man who would likely at least initially be a SDE in the Pruitt/Sherrer defense, with the chance to grow into a player who can move inside.  While he’s still scheduled to take visits to South Carolina and then Florida State before Signing Day, I have a strong suspicion he might have told Pruitt and the staff that he’s going to be a Vol while on campus.  Whether he becomes a public commitment and shuts his recruitment down before taking those trips is to be determined, and will be something to watch this week.  He’d be a big add to the DL class, that’s for sure

ATH Tre’shaun Harrison, a former Oregon commitment and 4-star WR/DB, was on campus with his parents and predictably was blown away by what he saw in Knoxville.  He doesn’t do much talking to the media though, so it’s unclear if coming out of the visit the Vols are true players in his recruitment.  That said, with FSU (along with the Ducks) considered to be real contenders, leaving the West Coast is certainly an option.  I think we’ll be able to get a real feel for where Tennessee thinks it sits if Pruitt and/or other staff make the trip out to Seattle to see him

OL Dylan Wonnum moved his originally scheduled visit to South Carolina and scheduled a trip to Knoxville instead.  Because his brother is at Carolina he is definitely considered a heavy Gamecock lean, but the Vols have worked themselves into the picture and got a much desired official visit.  He’s an incredibly quiet kid who notoriously does little media, so it’s nearly impossible to tell where the Vols are with him coming out of the visit.  That said, with the departure of OL Coach Herb Hand from Auburn the Vols are likely at least #2 going into his visit to Columbia, so they will likely keep swinging and see what happens with the very talented lineman

Neither S Nikko Hall nor S Trevon Flowers made it in this past weekend.  It appears Tennessee and Hall, who we noted in the weekend preview had an odd offer list, have agreed to move on from each other.  Flowers, an intriguing prospect who signed to play shortstop for Kentucky back in December but has decided he wants to play football too (which means he must sign a football scholarship), was in Lexington as the Wildcat staff tries to hold onto him.  He’s now planning on visiting Knoxville this coming weekend and will be one to watch

Tons of News in Tuscaloosa

Alabama hosted three of Tennessee’s top targets this past weekend in commitment LB JJ Peterson, LB Quay Walker (a Tide commitment himself), and DL Malik Langham and by all accounts did themselves some good with all three.  What that means in the next two weeks or so is still yet to play out.

Without a doubt though, Saban and Co. put themselves firmly in the driver’s seat with Langham.  The Alabama native had the Tide right at the top of his list going into the visit and he admitted on Sunday that they are his leader.  It could be considered a minor victory for the Vols (and Florida, with whom he still has a visit scheduled this coming weekend, and Auburn, who offered on Friday) that he didn’t commit publicly and end his recruitment completely.  But there is zero doubt that anyone else trying to land Langham has a pretty big hill to climb.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Langham never ends up visiting Rocky Top officially, but obviously the Vols won’t give up on the talented defensive lineman until he tells them to leave him alone as proven by Tracy Rocker being inhome with him on Monday night.

As one might expect, both Peterson and Walker had great visits.  Between the National Championship parade and the normal peer recruiting that takes place on a visit, one can imagine that both had a great time and that each of them felt like they could see themselves playing at Alabama.  That said, other than Walker commenting that it took some time for him to get comfortable with neither Pruitt nor Derrick Ansley on staff anymore, neither of them have talked much publicly about their visit or where their respective recruitments stand coming out of the weekend.  Therefore, anyone talking about it is simply giving their generally uninformed opinion.  Mine is that Peterson, with whom Pruitt still has his inhome visit (not to mention the Propst connection), is going to stick with the Vols.  As far as Walker goes, as long as he keeps taking visits – and he is still scheduled to see Auburn and then UGA before the final dead period – his commitment to Alabama should still be considered shaky at best.  If he were truly convinced it was the place for him – and if that convincing was going to happen one would think this past weekend was the time for it – why wouldn’t he come out and say it?  Frankly, this is in my opinion the same situation as Grant and Tennessee.  Therefore, my opinion stands that this is going to be a UT-UGA battle at the end, and unless UGA runs out of space (see below) they are going to stay in the fight.  My hope is that between his relationships on the UT staff with Pruitt, Sherrer, and Rumph along with his friendship with JJ Peterson and the immediate playing time Tennessee can only offer will win out.

Along with Langham, Peterson and Walker, Alabama also hosted stud CBs Tyson Campbell and Patrick Surtain along with Julius Irvin, who they had just offered.  And while Campbell still appears to be a strong UGA lean, Surtain and Irvin are now very much in play for the Tide.  Further, not only is Alabama is scheduled to have CBs Kelvin Joseph (soft LSU commit) and major UT targets Isaac Taylor-Stuart and Eddie Smith (and maybe also Olaijah Griffin) on campus this coming weekend, but they added to their recent CB offer spree (they offered former UGA commit Richard Wildgoose last week) by offering former Duke commit Taiyon Palmer. 

Point is, Alabama has a TON of CB lines in the water, and where they stand with most of them is unknown.  They’re likely to land some, so if you’re Tennessee you’re hoping that it’s guys like Campbell or Surtain or Irvin or Joseph or Palmer – not Taylor-Stuart or Smith or Griffin.  Lots to play out here, and lots of implications for the Vols at arguably the most important area of need

Other UT Targets on the Road

Both CB Olaijah Griffin and NG Coynis Miller were at Oregon, and the fact that there hasn’t been news on either of those visits is likely indicative of how little chance the Ducks have with either prospect.  Miller scheduled to be in Knoxville this coming weekend and UT is viewed as the one school that could realistically flip him even though he currently has an OV set up to Florida the first weekend in February.  Tracy Rocker was in to see Miller on Monday ahead of the visit, so clearly the Vols are hoping to set the stage for a big weekend.

Griffin hosted Head Coach Jeremy Pruitt inhome on Monday night. After naming UT and USC his co-leaders coming out of his official visit to the Trojans last weekend, Tennessee is clearly trying to regain the momentum in this newly-minted 5-star CBs recruitment.  He’s currently scheduled to see Alabama and then Auburn before Signing Day, but those visits are likely up in the air.  Ideally Pruitt crushed the inhome and convinced both Olaijah and his family that Tennessee is the best place for him and to commit and shut it down.  The more likely scenario is that the inhome reestablished the Vols as his leader with many more twists and turns to come

Arguably Tennessee’s top two remaining WR targets took OVs elsewhere, with Texas A&M hosting Jacob Copeland and UGA hosting Antoine Green.  And a third, Warren Thompson, was scheduled to be at UNC but it doesn’t seem like he actually went – he’s one UT would love to land but at this point still seems FSU-bound.

While the Vols trail Bama and maybe Florida for Copeland, his visit to College Station didn’t see to move the needle for the Aggies.  However, the Green visit to Athens is very interesting, as he is near the top of the WR board for the Vols.  Where he sits for Georgia is less clear, and they are still working hard to land Tommy Bush (who was in Oxford this weekend) at WR while working with very as few as three spots.  As everyone knows UGA is a big player for Quay Walker, and despite what sounds like a really good visit to Tuscaloosa for Campbell most still think he remains a heavy Georgia lean.   Notably, UGA also had DB Mario Goodrich on campus this past weekend and by all accounts made a lot of headway.  What Kirby Smart does with his numbers will be fascinating and could have an impact on the Vols, so it will be something to continue to monitor

Top CB target Eddie Smith was at Mississippi State for his Bulldog OV.  He seems to have had a nice time, and spent most of his visit with well-regarded CB coach Terrell Buckley, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of confidence out of Starkville.  Smith still appears to be favoring Tennessee heading into his OV to Alabama, and as noted above the Tide has dished out multiple CB offers in just the last few days along with being in play for aforementioned guys like Surtain and Irvin in particular.  So it remains to be seen where he is on Alabama’s board, not to mention that Tennessee could simply have too big of a lead to overcome

Texas hosted LB/DEs Michael Williams and Caleb Okechukwu.  Williams received his Texas offer right before the visit and Okechukwu during, and Williams popped for the Longhorns on Monday.  I am a fan of the jumbo athlete’s game and think he would have made a nice chess piece in Pruitt’s defense, but it was it was unclear after his visit to Knoxville the previous weekend how much interest either side had.  Okechukwu’s recruitment has been pretty quiet after earning a bunch of offers with his performance at the Under-Armour game.  And while he received the Texas offer and had a really good visit to Austin, he remains uncommitted and will be in Knoxville this coming weekend.  With Langham looking more and more like a big Crimson Tide lean and with Williams off the board (and Texas likely no longer having room), Okechukwu’s chances of landing at Tennessee look better than ever.  We’ll see how that visit goes this weekend…

TE Glenn Beal was at Ole Miss this past weekend and this recruitment continues to get wilder.  He had a good time in Oxford and Ole Miss could be a factor depending on how things fall with Beal’s remaining suitors.  The thought that he was an Aggie lean last week after his Texas A&M visit seems to have fallen by the wayside, and after visiting the Black Bears he’s now planning to visit Alabama and then Florida.  There is also a thought that if LSU has room Beal would love to end up there and will keep that option open until the very end. At this point I think the odds of him ending up a Vol are pretty low given Beal’s interest in so many other schools this late in the game combined with UT’s needs elsewhere and the number of realistic options on the board, but it does seem like the staff wants to keep recruiting him so we’ll see

No news yet from JUCO DL Emmit Gooden’s visit to Louisiana Lafayette, but Volquest is reporting that he’s less and less likely to end up a Vol.  To me that means he’s not likely to qualify at an SEC school

Gameday Today: Tennessee football, basketball, and VFLs

Hoops

Tennessee found yet another way to win in beating South Carolina 70-63 Saturday night, namely having its bench outscore its starters. If you were for some reason unable to watch, do yourself a favor and watch these highlights of the game. Be prepared to hear the names Lamonte Turner and Derrick Walker a lot:

Unfortunately, the Lady Vols did not fare as well this weekend, falling to #6 Mississippi State, 71-52 at home.

Football

Tennessee appears to be in the mix to land Stanford quarterback Keller Chryst, who’s on the graduate transfer market. Chryst was the third-best pro-style QB in the Class of 2014. He redshirted as a freshman and then played four games (0 starts) as a sophomore, 12 (6-0 as the starter) as a junior, and 7 (all starts) this past season before giving way to KJ Costello after a 5-2 start.

SB Nation has identified Tennessee as the greatest underachiever of the 2017 season as measured by the disparity between talent (8th in recruiting) and S&P+ (107th). Woo. The bright side of that, of course, is that there still appears to be talent on the roster, and presumably, the problem of not having anyone to develop that talent into its true potential has been fixed. Right?

Don’t ever just form opinions on the headlines, folks. Sure, an early tweet made it it look like Vol Shaq Wiggins was recruiting against the team that he played for, but in a subsequent tweet, Wiggins clarified that he didn’t know who the recruit was and that he was merely praising a beloved former coach.

ICYMI: It looks like VFL Montario Hardesty will be joining Jeremy Pruitt’s staff as a quality control assistant. Oh, and it’s looking like Jauan Jennings is going to be given a chance to walk the straight and narrow on this year’s team.

VFLs

Derek Barnett had a huge play in the Eagles’ big win over the Vikings last night:

Christian Coleman set a new world record in the 60 meter dash.

Tennys Sandgren, having already beaten the No. 9 seed in the Australian Open, followed it up by beating the No. 5 seed, Dominic Thiem in a five-set thriller.

Vols Find Another New Way to Win at South Carolina

Here’s a point we would have made if the Vols lost today:  Tennessee’s next three SEC games are at home against the only three teams in the league with an RPI of 100+ (Vanderbilt, LSU, Ole Miss). Thrown in for fun is a road trip to Ames, Iowa to face the only Big 12 team outside the Top 65 in KenPom. The Vols are currently first in strength of schedule in those same ratings. After the warm-ups against Presbyterian and High Point, 11 of Tennessee’s last 16 games were against teams projected to finish in the RPI Top 100, eight in the Top 50. We’re due a break.

But at the end of the nation’s most difficult first three-fifths of the season, Tennessee found one more win. They did it on the road while holding a lead of less than eight points for the final 27 minutes, yet never fell behind. And Tennessee’s 13th win came by yet another new method: more points from the bench (39) than the starters (31).

Twenty-five of those came from Lamonte Turner, along with six rebounds. That part isn’t new:  he had 17 against Purdue, 24 at Georgia Tech, and 25 against Auburn. He’s become one of the streakiest players in recent Tennessee history: he was 1-of-6 against Missouri and 1-of-5 from the arc, then 6-of-9 today and 3-of-3 from three. The Vols have beaten good teams while he was cold – he was 2-of-11 against Kentucky – but don’t beat Purdue or the Gamecocks today without him. He’s one of those guys that could have a lot to do with the length of Tennessee’s stay come tournament time.

The newness today came from Derrick Walker, a sentence you’re as surprised to read as I am to type. Walker, a true freshman, averages six minutes per game and had only played more than ten thrice. His season high was 14 minutes. Today:  5-of-5 from the floor, 10 points, and four rebounds in 25 minutes. He doubled his previous career high in scoring.

The push-and-pull led to John Fulkerson not coming in and Kyle Alexander, who had 26 points in the last two games, playing just 14 minutes today. There was no Jalen Johnson, but Yves Pons got his first action since Wake Forest and ended up playing a dozen minutes, with an important putback for his first SEC points.

This is Tennessee: you’re going to get 15+ from Grant Williams, and if the other team isn’t physical on the interior he could go off for more. You’re going to get double figures from Admiral Schofield, who is quietly shooting 43.4% from the arc. One of the guards is probably going to play well (and when they don’t, you get Missouri). The Vols are going to share the ball well. And whoever is seeing the most minutes outside of Williams and Schofield on a given night is probably whoever is defending most effectively.

Against great competition, the Vols have won scoring 92 and scoring 66. They have bested elite size from Purdue and Texas A&M and elite athleticism from Kentucky. They have won at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina; their other two road games are an overtime loss at Arkansas and a four-point loss at Missouri. This team travels. This team is good.

Here’s a question; not a concern, just a question:  does Tennessee need a clearer idea of who represents its best basketball by tournament time?

Does Barnes want/hope one of Bone, Turner, and Daniel to separate himself? Those three average almost identical minutes on the year, but game-to-game it can vary wildly. Today: Turner 32 minutes, Daniel 22, Bone 16. What about Alexander, Walker, and/or Fulkerson in the post?

The messaging has been consistent all year on having a dozen starters or whatever. And this may, in fact, already be Tennessee’s best basketball. The Vols are 14th in KenPom with a roster picked to finish 13th in the SEC. No complaints here.

They won’t even necessarily need to be better over the next couple of weeks, just consistent. But we do have memories around here of Bruce Pearl’s 2008 team still looking for a point guard heading into the bracket, and the 2010 team suddenly becoming Final Four material when Brian Williams returned to the lineup in late February. Barnes surely wants his team to continue to improve; will that improvement include more definitive answers at guard at in the post?

Either way, the Vols have already proven themselves capable of winning multiple ways against multiple tough opponents. Today was just the latest example.

 

“Diamond in the Dirt” Jordan Young is a Vol

 

Three days ago, Jordan Young was a barely-known, unranked wide receiver who was toiling in obscurity in broad daylight. At 6’2″, 185 pounds, he certainly had the size, played in the Atlanta suburb of Conyers, Georgia, scored 17 touchdowns as a senior for Heritage High School and also was a Class AAAAAA state champion in the 110-meter hurdles.

So, how was Young coveted so minimally by the who’s-who of college football?

The loss of everybody else in the nation was Tennessee’s gain as coach Jeremy Pruitt, lead recruiter Tracy Rocker, offensive coordinator Tyson Helton and Co., found out about Young and hosted him on a visit to UT last weekend.

He committed Friday via his Twitter account.

Honestly, his name was “just another name on the list,” hardly thought of behind studs like Quay Walker. But he came to Knoxville, loved what he saw, and his film got out.

In no time, he went from being unranked and not even having a profile page to a 4-star prospect and the No. 190-ranked prospect in the country according to 247Sports. When he committed to the Vols on Friday, Rivals gave him 3 stars. After Young didn’t play the camp circuit, he was going to slide under the radar.

But Tennessee found him and got a commitment from him. Now, Ohio State, Miami, Florida State, Auburn and others are beating down Young’s door, trying to get him to visit. The Vols will have to hold off some of the top teams in the country for his signature, but it’s obvious Young is smitten with Tennessee.

And that’s big news for the Vols.

He runs a 4.43, high-points balls like nobody’s business on his film and has all the measurables you could want from a receiver recruit. Given UT’s massive need for impact players at his position and the Vols’ position with Jacob Copeland and uncertainty with Geordon Porter, it’s a major pickup for UT.

He will team with Alontae Taylor to give the Vols a formidable duo at a position of need.

How good could Young be? Barton Simmons — 247Sports’ director of scouting — was so blown away by his film, he ranked him that highly based off it. He told GoVols247’s Ryan Callahan that Young could be a “game-changing” pickup and that he has a 5-star ceiling and could have been higher had the service had ample time to evaluate him.

That’s some lofty praise from somebody who doesn’t hand out candy like gum from the church lady.

He told Callahan earlier in the week that Helton told him UT believed he was a diamond in the dirt.

This late in the game, the Vols are taking some major swings with Pruitt at the helm. They’re trying for 4- and 5-star guys and high-ceiling prospects who maybe don’t have the ratings or the offer sheets of some others. Needing to fill out the class with 6-7 more players and needing instant-impact players everywhere, that’s why Pruitt is going big. But, if they don’t pan out, he wants some developmental guys next.

Young is one of those rare late finds who could wind up being one of the stars of the class. That’s how big this commitment is. Now, hopefully, Tennessee can fend off some of the sport’s biggest and best programs to keep him in the fold.

The First Page of Tennessee’s Resume

The Vols dropped a tough one at Missouri, where holding the Tigers without a field goal for the last 6:47 wasn’t quite enough to overcome 24% from the arc and 62% from the free throw line. Tennessee goes to 12-5 (3-3), but a road loss to a quality team like Mizzou doesn’t hurt at all in KenPom (where the Vols remain 13th) and RPI (where the Vols are 14th).

There are eight SEC teams in the KenPom Top 50; the same eight are in the RPI Top 40. The Vols still lead the SEC in the former, while trailing Auburn and Kentucky in the latter. Just six games into conference play, the Vols have already faced five of those Top 50 teams. Only three such games remain:  at Kentucky and at Alabama back-to-back in early February, and a visit from Florida on February 21.

Tennessee has ten other games between now and the SEC Tournament. In the best SEC of at least this decade, which means there is no such thing as easy. Vanderbilt has fallen out of the KenPom Top 100, but the rest of the league is in the Top 85. It will not be easy…but it will be easier.

Right now will probably be as high as Tennessee’s strength of schedule goes this season. It ranks second nationally in KenPom and fourth in RPI, where it is projected to finish 22nd. The Vols already have quality wins over Purdue and Kentucky, plus Texas A&M could still find their way back onto that list. When the case is being made for Tennessee on Selection Sunday, it will sound a lot like this.

Like last year, the Vols already have the details they need; the raw win total is all that remains between Tennessee and the bracket. Last year the Vols got in the bracket conversation with their 12th win, beating Kansas State four days after knocking off #4 Kentucky. The difference:  last year the Vols started 12-9. This year they were 12-4 before falling at Mizzou.

Anxiety about getting in is easy to understand after missing both the NCAA and NIT the last three years. RPI Forecast suggests the Vols would be in business there at 18-12 (8-10 or 9-9 with a loss at Iowa State). But Tennessee’s resume to this point – not just the strength of schedule but the quality wins with no bad losses – suggests we can dream a little bigger.

Coming through this front-loaded portion of the SEC schedule at 3-3 keeps Tennessee’s pre-conference goals alive:  compete for the league title, and earn a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. When it comes to seeding, eight or better is great for getting through the first round, but what you really want is six or better to stay away from the truly elite teams in the second round. The Vols may not be one of those truly elite teams themselves, but everything we’ve seen from this team against this schedule so far makes me think Tennessee can be a 4-6 seed. Most of the Bracket Matrix agrees.

After facing so many good teams in the first 17 games in building their case, the challenge in these final 13 games becomes consistency. That starts at South Carolina on Saturday, 68th in KenPom fresh off a win over Kentucky. The Gamecocks are the worst shooting team in league play, but are first at getting to the free throw line (thanks in large part to FoulFest 2018 against Kentucky on Tuesday) and first in offensive rebounds. We could say it’s another game where effort will be essential, but again, that’s every night now in this league. The Vols have been good enough to build a high-seed resume against one of the nation’s most difficult schedules. Now can they be consistent enough to get the rest of the way there?

January 19th Weekend Preview

After a very successful first official visit weekend after the dead period, Tennessee is set to open its doors again this weekend to an eclectic set of visitors.  At the same time, many of the Volunteers’ top targets will be officially visiting elsewhere, so there will be tons to follow:

ATH Anthony Grant will be taking his official visit to Knoxville as a very soft commitment.  Back in December I made a case for why he should be a priority for the staff and while they haven’t gone balls to the wall with him, and don’t seem to know where he would play, they have obviously made it clear they want him.  He has OV’d to Virginia Tech in December and UNC this past weekend, and both are recruiting him very hard.  It’s good news to me that he’ll be on campus: he’ll get to meet the coaches and both sides can size each other up.  I think in the end he won’t be the 2nd RB in this class – if he does end up a Vol my guess is he starts out in the secondary and C’Bo Flemister continues to be an option at RB depending on needs/options at other positions

S Nikko Hall from California has moved his visit up to this weekend after a visit from Terry Fair this week.  Hall is an interesting player in that he’s a high level athlete who can play both sides of the ball but is being recruited to the defensive backfield by Tennessee.  However, his offer list doesn’t reflect his relatively high rating, as right now the other programs fighting for him include Iowa State, Illinois, and now Nebraska – an odd list for a California kid in particular.  That said, the Tennessee staff certainly seems enamored with him, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they press for a commitment and he obliges while in Knoxville this weekend

ATH Tre’shaun Harrison, a former Oregon commitment, took an official visit to Utah this past weekend.  He will OV to Tennessee this coming weekend and then to Oregon and FSU (Willie Taggart, again).  He’s a 4-star player capable of playing both WR and DB, and he’s another West Coast kid who’s likely to be blown away by what he sees in Knoxville.  The interest on both sides is a bit unknown at this point, but there’s enough from Harrison to fly thousands of miles to check it out.  We’ll know more on this one after his OV is over.  Taggart used inhome on Monday of this week, so if the Vols make an impression this weekend and want to keep recruiting Harrison hard they will have that advantage over the Seminoles

DE John Mincey, who last week decommitted from Arkansas, has set his official visits to Tennessee this coming weekend, followed by South Carolina and then FSU.  However, per GoVols247, Tennessee is the team to beat going into the weekend.  Should the Vols push for a commitment they might be able to lock him down.  He’s a large young man who would likely at least initially be a SDE in the Pruitt/Sherrer defense (with the chance to grow into a player who can move inside) and is a guy who you probably take as soon as you can get him.  The status of fellow SDE prospect Malik Langham, who is scheduled to visit instate Alabama this weekend and might be leaning towards the Tide

OL Dylan Wonnum has moved his originally scheduled visit to South Carolina and scheduled a trip to Knoxville for this weekend.  His brother is at Carolina and he is definitely considered a heavy Gamecock lean, but the Vols have worked hard to get him to campus after starting from scratch and will have a chance to show him the kind of opportunity he would have with the limited numbers on the Vols OL

S Trevon Flowers is a new prospect on the board for the Vols (and just about every other program).  He signed to play shortstop for Kentucky back in December out of Tucker High School near Atlanta, meaning colleges couldn’t offer him. However, the UK baseball staff lifted that ban and he’s since received offers from Tennessee and a handful of smaller programs to this point.  The Tucker football coach was quoted as saying “He can be as good as he wants to be. We’ve got guys who have played for us here playing in the National Football League. He’s as talented as anyone we’ve coached here. The sky is the limit for him” so there’s clearly talent there.  I think right now Flowers is lower on the board than more than a handful of other defensive backs, but getting him on campus gives Pruitt and Co. another option should they need it

Eyes on Athens and Tuscaloosa

Georgia: After a bunch of twists and turns with his visit schedule, Quay Walker will officially visit Georgia this weekend instead of Alabama.  Most people think that UGA is the other major contender for Walker besides Tennessee at this point, so this visit will be keenly watched.  The other thing to keep an eye on in Athens is whether Tennessee commitment and good friend JJ Peterson comes with Walker to Athens.  Peterson is scheduled to be at Alabama this weekend, but so was Walker as of 24 hours ago, so who knows.  I think Tennessee coaches would love for Peterson to accompany Walker this weekend so he can stay in his ear about the Vols – and also, as importantly, so he wouldn’t be in Tuscaloosa – but that’s TBD at this point.  Either way, Walker is a major target for both UT and UGA and this visit could go a long way towards his final decision

Alabama: Despite signing three high level DBs in December, Alabama is still looking for more.  This weekend they will host CBs Tyson Campbell (heavy Georgia lean) and Patrick Surtain along with newly offered DB Julius Irvin.  Along with the three bigtime DBs Alabama is scheduled to have on campus this weekend, they are also scheduled to have Kelvin Joseph (soft LSU commit) , Isaac Taylor-Stuart, Eddie Smith, and a new addition to their board – Olaijah Griffin – officially visit the following weekend.

Here’s where it gets interesting.  From a numbers perspective it seems like Alabama could only take one, maybe two more DBs.  And not only did they just offer Irvin yesterday but they also offered former UGA commit Richard Wildgoose – doesn’t make you think Bama feels good about where they stand with any of their main DB targets.  But, if you assume Bama won’t strike out completely and if as a UT fan you’re thinking strategically, you’d prefer them to land either Campbell (to steal from UGA, though that would make the Dawgs bigger players for Isaac Taylor-Stuart) or even better some combo of Joseph/Surtain/Irvin/Wildgoose (with Campbell to UGA).  That would likely take Bama out of the running for all of Griffin/Smith/Taylor-Stuart, leaving Tennessee as major players and the only school with room to take all three.  Either way, a lot left to shake out with Alabama’s recruiting in the secondary, with major implications for Tennessee.

If Peterson doesn’t go to Athens that means he’s in Tuscaloosa.  The Tide were long considered his destination before Pruitt’s move to Tennessee, and they are clearly not going down without a fight.  Most think UT is in good shape here regardless, but if you’re Tennessee you’d much rather have him not take that visit to Alabama

Bama will also host major Vol DL target Malik Langham.  As noted above, some think Langham might be on commitment watch this weekend while he’s told others he will definitely take his next two visits to UF and Tennessee (both of whom just had their respective head coaches inhome, perhaps trying to convince him not to commit this weekend?). He’s one to watch in particular, as his decision (or lack thereof) could influence what Tennessee does with the aforementioned John Mincey

Other Visits to Watch

Texas will host LB/DEs Michael Williams and Caleb Okechukwu.  Williams is fresh off a great visit to Knoxville and is likely down to the Two UTs now that Texas offered on Wednesday.  He’ll likely make a decision soon after this weekend, and whether he has a spot at Tennessee remains to be seen (I’m a huge fan).  There are rumblings that he is more likely to go with Texas than with the Vols, but we’ll see.  Okechukwu’s recruitment has been pretty quiet after earning a bunch of offers with his performance at the Under-Armour game.  Where he sits on Texas’s board, or Tennessee’s board (he is set to visit Knoxville on 1/26) is unknown

Mississippi State will host CB Eddie Smith.  Smith appears to be a big Tennessee lean heading into his final two OVs to State and Alabama, and you can bet the Vol coaches will be doing everything they can to get him to go ahead and commit instead of taking either of them

Oregon will host both CB Olaijah Griffin and NG Coynis Miller.  Griffin is fresh off a very good visit to USC and then an inhome visit from Terry Fair, and the Vols and Trojans are firmly co-leaders at this point.  This seems like a recruitment that will take many twists and turns but at its core will come down to whether he wants to stay home (USC) or strike out on his own, in which at this point Tennessee would be the odds-on favorite despite any potential dalliances with schools like Alabama or Auburn, etc.  Similarly, Miller is unlikely to end up out West but is taking the visit due to his relationship with new Ducks HC Mario Cristobal.  He’s scheduled to be in Knoxville the following weekend and UT is viewed as the one school that could realistically flip him even though he currently has an OV set up to Florida the first weekend in February

A handful of Vol WR targets will be spread out across the country, but none of the hosting schools appear to be the top contender for any of them.  Texas A&M will host WR Jacob Copeland (Bama, UF, UT), UNC will host WR Warren Thompson (FSU, UT, maybe UF), OSU will host WR Antoine Green (UNC, UT – likely not a take for OSU), and Colorado State will host WR Brandon Aiyuk (no Vol offer – if I were him I’d take that Rams offer while it’s hot)

Ole Miss will have two UT targets on campus in TE Glenn Beal and DL Fabian Lovett.  Beal as everyone knows named Tennessee as his leader before his OV to Texas A&M, after which he is thought to be a heavy Aggie lean.  The fact that he has not yet committed (at least publicly) and that coaches from Tennessee and other schools keep visiting him tells me that he’s still open and that UT in particular is still trying here.  I don’t expect him to end up at Ole Miss.  Lovett is a MS native who was a Mississippi commitment until Dan Mullen left for swampier pastures.  The Vol staff has been working for a while to land an official and he’s now scheduled to be in Knoxville next weekend.  Ole Miss is a legit threat for the instate 3-4 DL though, so there’s a chance he commits while in Oxford.  But Florida is also a real contender thanks to Mullen and Lovett is currently set to visit Gainesville the first weekend of February

Louisiana Lafayette will host JUCO DL Emmit Gooden, who got a UT offer on Sunday night.  Gooden has to be considered an academic risk at this point (hence the visit to ULL), but if UT gains real confidence he can qualify they will pursue him heavily and I would expect him to end up a Vol

Barnes, Bruce, and Cuonzo: The Real Thing

Somewhere in dreams, Bruce Pearl still wears an orange blazer and the Vols never missed an NCAA Tournament. Perhaps a little further west in dreams, Rick Barnes still wears that other shade of orange and his teams kept finding their way into the tournament’s second weekend.

The nearly-impossible task put before whoever would follow Pearl was to keep the dream alive. Tennessee made 13 NCAA Tournaments in the bracket’s first 67 years, then six in a row under Pearl. The Vols went to a single Sweet 16 in the 64-team field from 1985-2005, then went to three under Pearl. They won the SEC outright, made the program’s first Elite Eight, and even spent a week at number one. It was a good dream.

It didn’t turn out to be Cuonzo Martin’s dream; his tenure remains a Rorschach test for Tennessee fans. So was his second year at Cal, two seasons ago, when he took the Golden Bears to their highest seed in tournament history, then lost in the first round to 13-seed Hawaii while down two starters and an assistant coach. We tend to see what we want to see.

One of the most helpful lenses in judging a college basketball team is Ken Pomeroy’s ratings. Unsurprisingly, they rate Bruce Pearl’s 2008 squad as the best of his tenure. What is surprising: not only was Cuonzo Martin’s last Tennessee team rated higher than all of Pearl’s, but Barnes’ team this year is giving them a run for their money:

  • 2008: +22.17 adjusted efficiency, 13th nationally
  • 2014: +23.69, 10th
  • 2018: +21.77, 13th

The process was complicated, but the end result in 2014 finished closer to the mountaintop than any Tennessee team other than Pearl’s run to the Elite Eight in 2010. We’re a long way from the end result right now, but this Tennessee team has a higher KenPom rating than all of Pearl’s except 2008. Missing both the NCAA’s and the NIT the last three years trained us to not get ahead of ourselves, to keep doing the math on how many wins the Vols need just to get in the bracket. But KenPom’s math suggests this is far more than a bubble team.

And this year’s process runs through Cuonzo and CoMo tonight.

Dreams, by definition, end. Bruce Pearl was the architect of his own demise in Knoxville. Rick Barnes made five Sweet 16’s, three Elite Eight’s, and a Final Four from 2002-08. He sent 17 Longhorns to the NBA Draft in his 15-year stint in Austin, including five one-and-dones. But Texas never made it past the second round in Barnes’ last seven seasons.

I don’t know what Cuonzo’s dream is; I’m not sure he would speak in those terms anyway. But, when you listen to him talk about why he’s at Missouri in this outstanding piece from S.L. Price at Sports Illustrated, he might not be far from it.

This is the good news at the tail end of a decade of highs, lows, and complex emotions for Tennessee basketball and its coaches. Bruce Pearl didn’t find the same magic at Auburn in year one, but in year four his Tigers are 16-1 and headed for their first NCAA Tournament in 15 years. Cuonzo Martin took over a Missouri program that was 27-68 (8-46) under Kim Anderson, signed the nation’s best player only to lose him to injury two minutes into the season, and is still 12-5 (2-2). And Rick Barnes has stayed away from one-and-dones in Knoxville, but is putting together a season on pace to rival his predecessors’ best work.

Dreams are great. But reality, for all three men, is pretty great right now too.

Quinten Dormady to transfer from Tennessee

Tennessee quarterback Quinten Dormady announced via his Twitter account today that he will finish his degree this spring and transfer somewhere else to play his final season.

Dormady started the first five games last season before giving way to Jarrett Guarantano and undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery. As a graduate transfer, he’ll be eligible to play immediately next season should he complete his shoulder rehab.

Dormady played sparingly as Josh Dobbs’ backup in both the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Last year, he won the starting spot in fall camp and ended up completing 76 of 137 passes for 925 yards and 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions. His final start came in the 41-0 loss to Georgia, a game during which he was benched after completing only five passes and throwing two interceptions. Guarantano took over after that game, and after a brief appearance in the South Carolina game, Dormady decided to undergo surgery on his shoulder, thus ending his season.

With Dormady gone, Tennessee’s quarterback roster consists of Guarantano and Will McBride as his backup. Also on the roster but without any playing experience are Zac Jancek and Seth Washington. Class of 2018 pro-style quarterback JT Shrout has signed his letter of intent, so he’ll be on campus next fall as well, but as of right now there are no other quarterbacks committed to Tennessee.

Best of luck to Dormady.