Gameday on Rocky Top

The Jeremy Pruitt Era at Tennessee got off to an inauspicious start when West Virginia nose tackle Kenny Bigelow blew up the Vols’ first play from scrimmage, running through UT’s offensive line unblocked and crushing quarterback Jarret Guarantano as he threw an ugly incompletion. When the offense continued to go backward, so much of the blooming hope that had been carefully cultivated on Rocky Top over the past nine months withered and wilted.

And for a while, Heisman Trophy candidate Will Grier and West Virginia’s passing attack looked like it was going to squelch any hopes for the defense as well.

But after a few extremely rough series, Tennessee’s offense shifted out of reverse and even put together a nice 78-yard drive for a touchdown in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the Vols defense held the Mountaineers’ high-powered and dangerous offense to only one touchdown and two field goals in the first half.

After an extended halftime break caused by a lightning delay, West Virginia and Grier found a groove, scoring more points and piling up more yards in the third quarter than they did in the entire first half. They found the end zone on every possession after halftime with the exception of one drive that ended with a fumble recovered by Tennessee.

The Vols offense sputtered some and scored some in the second half, earning another touchdown and getting to within two yards of another before turning the ball over on downs. When it was all said and done, West Virginia won 40-14.

Stiff arming adversity

The opening of the game for Tennessee was horrid, as the first play felt like getting punched in the mouth while opening a much-anticipated Christmas present. And then getting stomped on the throat while being reminded who somebody else thinks you are.

But Tennessee’s guys took the licks, got up, and then started giving some of their own. Tyson Helton didn’t wait long to abandon the idea of running into a stacked box and immediately started having success throwing the ball and moving the chains. The players didn’t quit, and they didn’t hang their heads. That’s going to be important as they face the potential of additional beatings in October.

The offensive line recovered from a terrible start

For the frightening first few minutes, Tennessee’s offensive line somehow looked worse than ever. Alabama transfer and former 4-star prospect Brandon Kennedy completely whiffed on that first play and was getting manhandled by Bigelow. The rest of the guys were doing no better, getting pushed back, run around, and just generally overwhelmed by West Virginia’s front seven.

But they found their legs after a few series and started, at the very least, holding their own. And then they started opening up lanes for the running backs. (More on that in a minute.) On balance, I think you’d have to say that the jury is still out on the o-line, but as the game went on, you started feeling better about them.

Jarrett Guarantano

Guarantano got the start, and, once the o-line started helping him after the first few series, he looked good. He finished the game 19-25 for 172 yards and a touchdown. I said this already, but it really can’t be overstated: He was absolutely pummeled on that first play, and he could have succumbed to the here-we-go-agains like the rest of us did. But he not only put his helmet back on and got back in the pocket, he started having success.

Tim Jordan

Jordan has to be the player of the game for the Vols. After Ty Chandler went out with an injury, Jordan got the bulk of the work in the run game, and he finished with 20 carries for 118 yards and a touchdown. The guy ran hard, had solid vision, and simply would not go down on first contact. On a couple of runs, he punished would-be tacklers before hitting the turf. He’s going to be fun to watch.

Grier and his guys were just too much

We knew going in that Tennessee’s secondary was going to be challenged, and while there was hope that the new guys at corner would surprise, they really didn’t. Alontae Taylor must have had a decent game, as his name wasn’t called very much. But Grier and the West Virginia offense picked on Trevon Flowers all night and for good reason, as he simply got beat by the Mountaineers’ wide receivers multiple times.

Whether that means the Vols’ secondary is going to be a concern all season, that Grier is going to win the Heisman, or that what happened this afternoon when Tennessee tried to defend the pass was a combination of the two, we won’t know for several games. Stay tuned for additional evidence and keep deliberating.

Marquez Callaway

Callaway had a good afternoon, pulling down seven catches for 85 yards, and he appeared to be Guarantano’s go-to receiver.

It was also good to see Jajuan Jennings back in action. When he gets his hands on the ball, you think that he’s never going to let go or go down. He did have only two catches, though.

Injuries

I believe that running back Ty Chandler was the only Vol to leave the game with injury and not return. Trey Smith went out at one point, but got back on the field after getting his ankle re-taped. That’s good news for a team that’s had more than its share of bad luck in the injury department the past couple of years.

Going forward

This wasn’t exactly the result that we Vols fans were hoping for. Many were entertaining the idea of winning, and most were thinking it would be closer than the 10 points Vegas predicted.

Whether 26 points constitutes a blowout is up for debate, but I saw some things this afternoon that look like a solid foundation upon which success can be built. Responding well to adversity. Abandoning ineffective gameplans and making effective in-game adjustments quickly. Mostly solid fundamentals.

I’m also sitting here right now trying to remember any mistakes, and I can’t remember any. The guys got beat. They missed some tackles, some blocks, and some coverages. But did the coaches commit any serious blunders? I don’t think so.

I think Will Grier, David Sills, and Gary Jennings are excellent.

I think West Virginia is very good.

But I also think we’re in good hands with Jeremy Pruitt and his staff.

It’s finally here. Gameday. Football Time in Tennessee.

Here’s the perfect Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

The most important thing you’ll do today is watch the Vols game, so here are the particulars:

• Kickoff: 3:30
• TV: CBS
• Official video streaming: CBS
• Official audio streaming: Vol Network
• Live stats

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

See also, this week’s full college football TV schedule.

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week podcasts

And if you’re driving around this morning to get stuff done before kickoff, have a listen to our two podcasts this week by subscribing via iTunes or Google:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

1. Tennessee vs West Virginia Preview: How Many, How Much, A Few
2. Tennessee-West Virginia statsy preview prediction: Mountaineers by 5
3. Saturday’s West Virginia Showdown is a Major Opportunity for Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols
4. Locks & Keys Week 1: Do You Fear the ‘Eers?
5. Vols-Mountaineers: Comparing the starters, head-to-head
6. Every Season Tells a Story
7. The data on how Vols fans are feeling about the 2018 season

This will also serve as our game thread for the day. Hope to see you there.

Go Vols!

It’s been a long time; too long.

The longest offseason in the history of Tennessee football is over. We endured the worst season in UT football history, the firing of clown coach Butch Jones, a debacle of a coaching search that saw us triumph as a fan base and ultimately claim major victory with the ouster of athletic director John Currie, the hiring of legend Phillip Fulmer at the position and the ultimate settling on Alabama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt as head coach.

Pruitt has won us over early with his down-to-earth demeanor and his no-nonsense approach; not to mention some recruiting victories. But we’ve got to take a baby step to take a big one, and the only way to do that is on the field.

Football is back. And for the first time in a long while, we can feel at least moderately comfortable that we’ve got a football guy who knows how to coach football who’ll be leading out the Vols against West Virginia tomorrow.

How will our Vols look? That, we don’t know. So, it’s impossible to figure how the game is going to go. But that won’t stop us from giving you a prediction now, will it? NEVAH!

Welcome to another season of Locks & Keys, where we give you five keys for the Vols to win the football game of the week and also give you some locks [that are normally far from that] for you to play if gambling were something that was allowed in your state. But since it isn’t in Tennessee, we’d never really do that now, would we?

This year, we’re going to do things a little differently. We’re gonna have a little structure to this shindig. We’ll give you five keys and seven locks for each of these columns. I’d love for you to add your own picks in the comments [or on Twitter]. I’ll also give you a score prediction each week because, you know, it’s what I do.

Let’s hope the Vols show out tomorrow. Let’s tell you how they can.

KEYS

Get in Grier’s grill
It’s no secret what West Virginia wants to do. Head coach Dana Holgorsen’s M-O throughout his career as an offensive coordinator and head coach has been to advance the ball vertically through the air. Now, he may just have the best weapon he’s ever had under center in senior quarterback Will Grier.

The Vols know all about Grier, who shredded UT and gouged us in the heart for good measure the last time we saw him at the helm of the Florida Gators when he completed a 4th-and-forever fourth-quarter pass to beat Tennessee in 2015. He has so many weapons and UT has so much youth in the secondary that if the Vols can’t find a way to get pressure on him, it’s going to be a long afternoon.

That’s a tall order for the team that was next-to-last in the SEC with just 22 sacks and 61 tackles for a loss a season ago. There are no “new” weapons for the Vols on the edge, really, unless JUCO transfer Jordan Allen can find his way in the backfield. Instead, UT is mostly relying on scheme changes and the fact that they now have defensive coaching. Can defensive-minded head coach Jeremy Pruitt, coordinator Kevin Sherrer and renowned assistants Chris Rumph and Tracy Rocker manufacture ways for the front seven to get to the quarterback? If not, Grier will have a field day.

Much of camp talk focused on the resurrection of the careers of Jonathan Kongbo, Darrell Taylor, and Kyle Phillips as well as the emergence of players like Quart’e Sapp and even JUCO defensive lineman Emmit Gooden. The Vols must manufacture ways to get to the quarterback.

Grab some game-changers

Last year’s Tennessee defense was atrocious. And before you point to the “strong” pass defense numbers remember that nobody threw the ball against the Vols because they could run it so effectively. When teams needed to pass to win (see Mizzou and Vanderbilt) they did with ease.

That – like the quarterback pressure – must change Saturday.

A season ago, UT was 10th in the SEC in turnover margin, last in the league with a paltry five interceptions and 11th in total takeaways. Again, the Vols are hanging their hats on actual – GASP! – defensive coaching to turn that around. Anybody would be an upgrade over former coordinator Bob Shoop, especially with the handcuffs he seemed to have under the Butch Jones regime.

But, unlike the pass rush, the Vols actually have some new weapons in the secondary. It looks like talented true freshman Alontae Taylor earned a starting spot opposite junior Baylen Buchanan, who hopes to have a career resurgence after a year wandering in ineptitude and obscurity. But other freshmen like Bryce Thompson and Trevon Flowers will play a lot, and their athleticism should upgrade the talent level on the back level.

Throw in a seasoned Nigel Warrior, and the Vols have the chance to be much better, or at least a ton more athletic, in the defensive backfield. They need to do a better job defending the ball, getting their hands on passes and generating turnovers that can flip the field in a hurry. This feels like a game where they’ll be a lot of points scored, so the Vols need extra possessions to win it.

Jump the ‘Eers

The Mountaineers are nearly a double-digit favorite against the Vols, and they can score so quickly that you normally don’t feel like a deficit is a big deal. But this team was just 7-6 a season ago, and their defense (at least on paper) isn’t that good. So, if UT can get a couple of those defensive stops early that we’ve already discussed and put up a couple of quick scores, it may be a big deal.

The reasoning isn’t because Grier will struggle to bring them back. Instead, if the Vols get off to a hot scoring start, they’ll begin to believe. That’s the quickest way to put a forgettable 4-8 2017 behind them. Every single pundit predicting a West Virginia blowout win is looking at the team from a year ago.

This isn’t that team.

The Vols may not be world-beaters yet, but there is a feeling around the complex that this team has improved a lot, and there is a belief that they’re being slept on a bit. OK, go prove it. I’ve said it once this week, but WVU isn’t a powerhouse. This is a good team that has so many offensive weapons that the Vols must play a very good game to win.

So, go play a very good game. Right?

The time for excuses is over. You’ve not heard any from Pruitt, and you won’t hear any from the Vols. They’ve got to go out there with a blank slate and play with their eyes forward. If they do that, they’ll be fine.

Good Guarantano

When we’re talking about fresh starts, nobody needs one more than Tennessee’s (expected) starting quarterback. The rising redshirt sophomore struggled in his first action a season ago after coming off the bench for maligned Quinten Dormady, who is now a backup at Houston.

But Guarantano, once upon a time, was the nation’s top-ranked dual-threat quarterback, expected to be the program savior and heir to Joshua Dobbs behind center. He was going to be the signal-caller who took UT from the mid-tier level Jones got them to to an upper-echelon program.
That got lost in the shambles of ’17.

Now, we’re hoping the New Jersey native can break out of the shell that he was last season and re-realize his massive potential. This strong-armed kid can make all the passes and elude pressure with his feet. But he’s also prone to hang onto the ball for too long, take unnecessary sacks and struggle with his timing. That’s why he’s not seized the job from graduate transfer quarterback transfer Keller Chryst and run with it.

This is likely going to be Guarantano’s job, and the Vols need for him to be better than serviceable. Serviceable won’t cut it with the players UT has around him. He needs to be steady in this game and develop until the Florida game. If he gets on a roll early, he may recapture some of that swagger he had when Bleacher Report did a Times Square commitment video for him back during his senior season of high school.

Friend-led Front

One of the most refreshing stories of fall camp has been just how many good reports about the offensive line there has been since Will Friend took over the unit. That position was a nightmare a season ago, along with most everything else. But when you look at how the new staff gave that group a facelift, it’s really remarkable.

The best thing for the Vols is star sophomore Trey Smith – who missed the entire spring dealing with blood clots – is healthy and looks like the leader of the unit now that he’s practicing at left tackle. JUCO transfer Jahmir Johnson earned one of the guard spots, and Alabama center transfer Brandon Kennedy will start in the middle for UT. Right now, it looks like Ryan Johnson and Drew Richmond will be at the other two O-line spots, but there are also reinforcements.

True freshman Jerome Carvin looks like an emerging force at guard, and redshirt freshman K’Rojhn Calbert is perhaps the most athletic player in the group. Riley Locklear is steady and should play, and Marcus Tatum is also not out of the mix at one of the tackle spots. If Chance Hall can come back from his major knee problems (and he’s expected to help this year) the Vols not only have more depth but talent.

But how good will that unit be at the start of the season? They must be very good if the Vols are going to beat the Mountaineers. To win this game, UT needs to run the football effectively, control clock, sustain drives and punch the ball in the end zone. Grier can’t hurt you watching from the sidelines.

So, if the Vols can control the game with their will imposed up front. This is going to be a different game and one UT can win.

Final Prediction

I’m a chicken.

I’ve gone back and forth all week on this one, and while I want to allow myself to believe the Vols will win, I’ve been burned too much lately. Call it Battered Butch Syndrome.

I believe the Vols absolutely CAN win this game. I know it’s a huge opportunity for this program under the early regime of Pruitt, and I’ve written as much this week. I also as of now believe this team is going to beat the Gators. But I just think an experienced quarterback and an incredible stable of receivers is going to be too much for a Vols team that struggled to get any pressure or create turnovers a season ago.

I know, I know: I’m looking at last year’s team, too. But how much better will they be? We just don’t know anything at all. That could be an advantage for Pruitt, but it’s a disadvantage in picking games. If UT can control the clock and Guarantano can limit mistakes, the Vols can post points.

But they’ll fall just short. UT will cover, but will start the season 0-1.

Prediction:  West Virginia 31, Tennessee 27

Now, onto the locks. We’ll close quickly…take these to the BANK! Or, you know, don’t.

LOCKS

1.  Ole Miss +2.5 over Texas Tech:  There could be a whooooooole lotta points scored in this game, but Texas Tech has proved it can’t hang with more talented teams. The Rebels have a ton of talent, led by quarterback Jordan Ta’amu and the best receiving corps in the SEC featuring A.J. Brown. I like the Dixie Rebels to get a big win in Houston to open the season. Take the dogs.
2. South Carolina -29.5 over Coastal Carolina:  I normally am a sucker for lines that look too good to be true, and they burn me. This is one of those. The Gamecocks play the Sun Belt’s Chanticleers in the opener, and this was a 3-9 team a year ago. It’s not really USCe’s thing to blow teams out, but Will Muschamp’s team has Jake Bentley and a few receiving weapons who’ll be too much. This will be something like a 45-14 win.
3. Auburn -2.5 over Washington: I got no words for this line. Again, I just don’t believe the Huskies can come across the country and play what will virtually be a home game for a stout Tigers team and win. Washington’s best win a year ago was Utah. Auburn is too big and strong on defense and will win a slugfest. I like them to get by by at least a touchdown.
4. Kentucky – Central Michigan under 49: These two teams have decent defenses, but the biggest factor here is both have new quarterbacks. The Wildcats have JUCO transfer Terry Wilson, and CMU will go with Tony Poljan, who played some at receiver a year ago and only has 21 career passes for the Chippewas. That’s a perfect concoction for a snorefest. Kentucky will win something like 27-10.
5. Michigan PICK over Notre Dame: Not buying the Fighting Irish. Even though they’re at home, the Wolverines are a dark-horse national championship contender if Ole Miss transfer quarterback Shea Patterson can live up to his potential. I think he can.
6. Alabama -24.5 over Louisville: Last year, the Cardinals couldn’t stop anybody, and Lamar Jackson made a few of those games at least respectable. There’s no Jackson anymore, and this has the potential to be the best offense of the Saban era in Tuscaloosa. Tide rolls.
7. Arizona -11.5 over BYU: This is my favorite line of the week. I can’t wait to see what Kevin Sumlin does with Khalil Tate. The Cougars don’t have an answer for a weapon like him. Cats cruise.

Give us your picks!

Let’s go.

How many points will Tennessee have to score to win? In six years at West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen is 53-37. In those 37 losses, the Mountaineers still averaged 24.9 points per game. By comparison, Tennessee went 34-29 the last five years with Butch Jones at the helm. In those 29 losses the Vols averaged only 17.4 points.

You’re not beating West Virginia 14-10. Even a relatively strong performance from Jeremy Pruitt’s defense right out of the gate will probably still require Tennessee’s offense to score more points than it mustered in most of its games last season. After a strong opening against Georgia Tech and Indiana State, the Vols scored more than 24 points just once the rest of 2017 (26 at Kentucky).

Tennessee will need to do something well, then do it consistently on offense to outscore West Virginia. The most likely answer there, as you’d imagine with this match-up, is via the ground game.

How much can Tennessee rely on its ground game? Last year West Virginia was 1-4 when allowing 200+ yards on the ground. The Mountaineers were 99th nationally in yards per carry allowed last season, and were especially susceptible on first down: 5.18 yards per carry allowed, and 48 runs of 10+ yards surrendered (127th nationally). Big plays were readily available on the ground when the defense didn’t know what to expect. Last season West Virginia ranked 100th or worse in 10+ yard runs allowed, 20+ yard runs allowed, etc. all the way through 50+ yard runs allowed.

It’s incredibly important for Tennessee to stay on schedule in this game, not only to protect the quarterback, but to put West Virginia’s defense in positions it struggled to stop last year. This feeds directly into the Vols showing improvement in the things they were very worst at last season: creating big plays (123rd nationally in 20+ yard gains), but also tackles for loss allowed (121st) which leads to a poor third down conversion rate (120th). The Vols must go backward far less to create more 3rd-and-3’s and fewer 3rd-and-7’s. And they have to capitalize in the ground game with both consistency and explosiveness against West Virginia.

A few incompletions can make a huge difference. On the other side of the ball, I think the most telling stat on West Virginia is this: the Mountaineers were 0-6 when completing less than 60% of their passes last year, 7-0 when completing more. Some of the sub-60% numbers include Will Grier’s absence, who was 6-of-8 when he went down against Texas. But in the three losses when he played the whole game:

• Virginia Tech: 31-of-53 (58.5%)
• TCU: 25-of-45 (55.6%)
• Oklahoma State: 20-of-42 (47.6%)

With the possible exception of Oklahoma State, Grier wasn’t bad by any means in these games. He averaged 7-8 yards per attempt against good defenses from Virginia Tech and TCU, with three touchdowns and only one pick in both games. Both teams only sacked him twice; Oklahoma State just once. But all three did enough to disrupt the passing game to win; VT and TCU won by identical 31-24 scores, while Oklahoma State won the 50-39 shootout they’re built for. The Vols under Pruitt are far more likely to follow the Hokie/Horned Frog model.

The path to victory won’t be easy, and there’s so much we simply don’t know about this Tennessee team. But there is indeed a path: find repeated success on the ground and make Grier just uncomfortable enough. Don’t expect to beat West Virginia 14-10, and I’m not sure the Vols are built to beat them 50-39. But opportunity, as they say, is now here. And I’m very excited to see what we’ve got.

Go Vols.

On Monday, we unveiled the 2018 edition of the GRT Expected Win Total Machine. How are Vols fans in general feeling about the season? Here’s the data so far:

• We Vols fans as a group are expecting right around 6.65 wins this season, more than a full game above where Vegas put the line.
• We’re giving Tennessee a 42% chance to beat West Virginia.
• We’re feeling most confident about ETSU and Charlotte, putting both at 98%. UTEP is at 96%.
• We’re feeling least confident about Alabama (9%), then Georgia (15%), then Auburn (21%). We then have West Virginia at 42% and South Carolina at 45%.
• After that, though, we have either toss-ups or expected wins. Florida is right at 50%, Missouri is 55%, and Kentucky and Vanderbilt are 67% and 69%, respectively.
• The entries range from an expected 4.69 wins to an expected 10.35 wins.

It will be interesting to see how the outcome of tomorrow’s game against West Virginia impacts these numbers next week. Where do you fall with respect to the crowd? Are you with the herd, or are you an outlier?