Gameday on Rocky Top

With so much to play for on Saturday, Tennessee’s game against Missouri was a colossal thud.

It should have been the most embarrassed the Volunteers felt all year, and, if they didn’t, something is severely wrong with the program. Mizzou waltzed into Neyland Stadium with former UT head coach Derek Dooley as its offensive coordinator and walked out with a 50-17 annihilation of the Vols.

A team that needed a single win for bowl eligibility will have to wait another week. If they play anything against Vanderbilt like they did against Missouri, they’ll have to wait another year (or more). Yes, with tons of star recruits in town and with so much to play for, the Vols were flatter and forgettable as they’ve been since the Florida loss.

The two setbacks were very similar, too. If anything, the one Saturday was worse. But the true nature of the “Sunday Best” column is to find something positive to talk about. Honestly, we’ll get to a couple of those real good things later, but the best thing I can say about this one is that it’s over.

This was the first time in four trips that my 8-year-old boy has gone to Neyland and come away with a loss, and as he declared afterward, “Well, at least I had fun.”

That makes one of us, kid. But I guess that qualifies for something worth chalking up as a positive for the day; Lord knows I need something good to make me feel better…

But first, the failures…

The offensive line is awful. We all know that, and though we maybe had better vibes after last weekend’s win over Kentucky, it was more of the same against Mizzou. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano was concussed early in the first quarter, yielding to Keller Chryst for the rest of the day. Few running lanes opened up the rest of the day making UT one-dimensional (and even that dimension wasn’t very good), and the Vols failed to sustain drives for the remainder of the game.

On the other side of the ball, this was — far and away, considering the level of competition — the worst UT’s defense has played all season, too, which disappointed me more than anything. I knew the offensive line sucked. I expected coach Jeremy Pruitt to have his boys on the defensive side of the ball ready to play, and that never was the case.

Needing to pressure Drew Lock to have a chance to win, Tennessee failed to do it hardly ever, and the senior Tigers quarterback dissected the Vols like a frog in 8th-grade science class. He was brilliant, and I’m glad he’s gone. You should be, too, because the Vols had no answer for him. Want to know what should make you feel worse? It could have been even more gruesome; the Tigers dropped two guaranteed touchdown passes where they torched UT defensive backs.

Alontae Taylor looked human all day with his worst performance of his freshman year, and the safeties were atrocious, too. Lock made them look like Will Grier did at the beginning of the season.

Well, how about the rush defense? Yeah, it was nonexistent, as well. Missouri completed 50 percent of its third-down conversions, and that had something to do with Lock’s brilliance, sure, but it also didn’t hurt that the Tigers had 227 rushing yards and put itself in manageable second- and third-down situations throughout the game. The Vols didn’t have any answers.

Need a reminder just how small the margin of error is for this UT team? Look no further than two plays that were gargantuan in the final tally. At the end of the first half, Chryst led UT down the field, and the Vols looked like they’d at the very least get a field goal to trail 19-13 at halftime. They may have even made it 19-17 if they could punch it in the end zone. Instead, Chryst and his receiver failed to be on the same page on a pivotal play, and the senior threw a huge interception that was returned deep into UT territory. Mizzou punched it in for a quick score to end the half, and instead of a one-score game, it was a 26-10 halftime advantage.

Tennessee was driving again near midfield in the third quarter when Carlin Fils-aime fumbled, and it was picked up and returned for a Mizzou touchdown that put the game completely out of reach.

Ugliness ensued.

So, all that happened. It was brutal. It was disappointing. And it not only was awful for the present, but it sucked for the future, too. Tennessee had a slew of high-profile recruits in town, the Vols had built some momentum with 5-star linebacker Owen Pappoe and 5-star offensive tackle Darnell Wright [neither of which was present Saturday, thank God] and others, and they were all feeling the vibes and watching the improvement of the Vols.

Then Saturday happened.

I’m not saying one game should — or will — influence any of those guys’ decisions. The Vols will still have a good recruiting class and may even lead for both those kids who’ll be massive playmakers and first-year starters. But Saturday didn’t help the selling process. You put your resume on paper, and UT didn’t have enough to get hired pumping gas against the Tigers.

If you want some positive things from Saturday, you’ve got to look hard. Again, my kid had a good time, so there’s that, right? Right?

Also, it showed me two things that are important for team (and fan) continuity next week. No. 1, Guarantano needs to be man against the Commodores and (hopefully) in a bowl game, whether the Vols win or lose in Nashville. He is the best quarterback on the roster, and Chryst struggled at times on Saturday. He just doesn’t give you what JG does, plain and simple. But…

The positive thing about Chryst is the kid CAN be a salvageable option if JG can’t go. The deep-ball game was strong again, and he was able to get passes up to Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings and let those superior talents do the rest. That’s a major positive. Yes, Chryst threw a pair of interceptions and was just 7-of-19 passing, but it wasn’t all his fault. When you’re one-dimensional — and the Vols definitely were on Saturday — defenses don’t have to work as hard.

We, of all teams, should know that. Remember the Kentucky game just last week?

Tennessee can beat Vanderbilt with Chryst at the helm. There’s a better chance for that to happen if Guarantano is healthy. Hopefully, he will be.

But the best thing about Saturday is we don’t have to watch Lock torch us anymore. Man, that got old. Just forget about this one and move on. It’s a one-game season, and if the Vols can’t beat Vanderbilt, they don’t deserve to go to a bowl game, anyway.

Better days are ahead, but this team is imperfect, inconsistent and continues to be about as hot and cold as any in the country. Let’s just hope they’re the former next weekend, or we’ll be watching bowl season from our couches.

Two years ago Tennessee beat Missouri 63-37, part of a sterling November performance for Josh Dobbs and the Vol offense. Tennessee led the nation in yards per play that month (stats via SportSource Analytics), averaging 8.96 per snap against Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. The next-closest team in November was Colorado State at 8.51. It was incredibly impressive.

But against Missouri, some of the post-game press went to what the Tigers did against the Vol defense: 740 yards! 420 on the ground! Oh the humanity!

It was a huge day for the Tigers…mostly because they ran 110 plays.

Mizzou’s 6.73 yards per play that day certainly didn’t represent a great effort by Bob Shoop’s unit. But Texas A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt were all more successful per-play against the Vol defense. They just didn’t snap it 110 times while giving up 63 points in just 67 plays on the other end.

Much has changed for Tennessee since then, but not a whole lot for Missouri. Derek Dooley now calls the plays, but the Tigers still love to get up and go. And this is the biggest difference between these two teams: Missouri has run 776 plays, eighth nationally among teams playing 10 games or fewer so far, and the fastest pace in the SEC. Tennessee has run 620 plays, fourth-slowest nationally among teams playing 10 games or more, and dead last in the SEC. Missouri essentially averages two whole drives more than Tennessee per game.

Missouri isn’t so much explosive as they are relentless. In their advanced statistical profile from Bill Connelly, the Tiger offense ranks only 98th in explosiveness but 16th in efficiency. For a team running more plays than almost anyone else, the Tigers are only fifth in the SEC in gains of 10+ yards on the year. Here they have a clear advantage on the Vols, who rank 12th in the league. But when you start increasing the denomination, the gap narrows quickly.

With the Tigers averaging 15+ snaps a game more than Tennessee, you would expect these differences to be greater. But Missouri hasn’t been beating people with sheer explosiveness. It’s instead an efficient, relentless offense that’s been good at creating more chances and making the most of them.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is more explosive than we give it credit for because it runs so few plays. We looked at this in-depth after the Charlotte win – Tennessee’s pace of 62 plays per game is still the second-slowest of the post-Fulmer era, bested only by last year at 61 because the offense struggled so much it couldn’t stay on the field. This team is much more deliberate about its pace, averaging 31:02 in time of possession, nearly three minutes more than last season. No doubt the Vols will look to do that again on Saturday, seeking to limit Missouri’s chances. This is exactly what Kentucky did, holding the Tigers to 62 plays. Only two of Kentucky’s five punts in that game came via three-and-outs. The Cats weren’t overly efficient – 3-of-14 on third down, 0-for-3 on fourth down – but they did a good enough job keeping the chains moving to limit Missouri’s chances.

For Tennessee’s offense, the formula for success here is a familiar one: make it count on third down, and sprinkle in enough big plays. I’m not as worried about Missouri decimating Tennessee’s defense over the top as I am about the Tigers simply eating it up one play at a time. When the Vols did well against Kentucky’s offense last week, they did well on first down and put the Cats in situations they didn’t want to be in. There are fewer situations the Tigers don’t want to be in. But I think this will be less about explosive plays allowed, and more about limiting Missouri’s overall chances by way of Tennessee’s own efficiency.

It’s time to see if coach Jeremy Pruitt can keep this ball rolling.

We’ve seen that the first-year Tennessee coach can recruit, and we’ve seen that he can develop. But can he get his Vols to pull off their third big upset of the year against a team that is arguably the worst matchup for them since Alabama? That’s a major question mark, and while 7-5 is still a possibility for this team, so is 5-7. We all need to remember that.

Simply put: The Missouri Tigers are at least the fourth-best team the Vols will play this season. It’s a toss-up to me whether they’re as good as West Virginia, but I’m giving the Mountaineers the (slight) nod there based on their body of work, though WVU’s record would be nowhere near what it is had it played in the SEC.

This Mizzou team is 6-4 and really should be 8-2 with losses to Alabama and Georgia. A bad South Carolina team beat them in Columbia, S.C., in a driving rain, and Kentucky got an extra down on a garbage call and took advantage with a walk-off win.

Yep, this team is close to flipping places with the Wildcats as the SEC’s Cinderella story of the year, and it’s going to be a monumental task for Tennessee to pull off. It’s one the Vols are up to, though. Here’s why…

KEYS

Make Lock beat you

You read that correctly.

Yes, Missouri has the second-best quarterback in the SEC with Drew Lock, but if you’re the Vols, you want the Tigers feeling like they’ve got to throw it all over the field to win. Mizzou has two really good, underrated running backs in Damarea Crockett and Larry Rountree III, and if they’re having success churning out yards, Mizzou is going to be impossible to stop.

The Vols did a great job up the middle of the field against Kentucky against Benny Snell and Co., and they’ve got to keep it up against a strong, veteran offensive line. Pruitt said this week the first key is going to be stopping Mizzou’s run, and he’s absolutely right to approach the game that way.

Run it up

Speaking of running, the Vols must be able to do it successfully. The Tigers are fifth in the conference in rush defense, so as bad as they’ve been on that side of the ball, teams aren’t lighting up the rushing statistics column against them.

The Vols are determined to run it, and with a healthy Ty Chandler in the lineup, they’re finding success doing so recently. This UT offense needs to keep the football away from Drew Lock and the Tigers, and the only way to do that is to sustain drives. Chandler, Jordan and others have to find space, and this Vols offensive line must have its best game of the season.

This is a tall task for Tyson Helton’s offense just because there’s going to be so much pressure on it to score.

Deep shots

Missouri’s secondary is terrible. They’ve had so many issues all season no matter who they play out there, and if there’s one place where UT has a distinct advantage, it’s the Vols tall, talented receivers against the Tigers struggling DBs.

This is one of those games where quarterback Jarrett Guarantano should be expected to take a major leap forward. He played very well against Kentucky, and he needs to build on that momentum and expand his game against Mizzou. Tennessee needs to be an offensive aggressor, taking its downfield shots and hitting a few. This is a big game for the maturation of Guarantano and the development of this offense.

It feels like a game where the Vols can have some big plays.

Start me up

Against Kentucky, Tennessee jumped in front early and kept the pressure on throughout. Missouri is a different animal because of its ability to stretch the field vertically, but that doesn’t change the Vols’ approach.

Basically, a key all season has been for UT to get out to a strong start. When it does, the Vols stand a great chance of winning. When they struggle early, they don’t do a good job coming back. In a game that’s going to feature a lot of points, the Vols need to prove right away they’ve got their own ammunition. An early touchdown and a lead would be big.

It also would help UT set the tone, be the pressure-pusher and believe it can come away with the win.

Third-down D

Drew Lock hasn’t enjoyed his greatest statistical season, but he’s grown in his ability to lead an offense under offensive coordinator Derek Dooley. The duo of dangerous running backs are important pieces to the puzzle, too.

That’s why it’s Alabama, then Georgia, then Missouri in third-down conversions in the league. The Tigers are staying on the field offensively, converting 45.5 percent of the time. That’s a great clip, and UT’s defense has to stop that. The Vols haven’t done well in third-down defense this year, currently 10th in the league. But they’ve been much better in the past couple of games.

That is a trend that must continue.

Harass Lock

Last weekend, the re-emergence of outside linebacker Darrell Taylor was massive for the Vols. The junior had three sacks earlier this season against Georgia, and he added four more last weekend against UK, garnering national defensive player of the week honors.

The rest of the year, though, Taylor has zero sacks. That must change.

UT needs the Taylor of last week to show out, and they could use some pressure from guys like Kyle Phillips, DeAndre Johnson and perhaps Kivon Bennett, too. Even if UT needs corner and safety blitzes, they’ve got to get in Lock’s face. This honestly may be the biggest key of the game.

If Lock has all day to throw, he’ll pick apart UT’s young secondary, no matter how good it is. The Vols have to make things difficult on him.

Prediction

So, what’s all this mean? There are a lot of things that must happen for the Vols to win the game. They’re going against a strong offense that is capable of blowing them off their home field, and the only way to combat that is to hit them head-on and throw some punches of their own.

UT’s defense is getting better. It’s secondary is getting better, and if freshman Trevon Flowers returns, it’s only going to improve again this week. The offense did some really good things against Kentucky, and the momentum must continue.

But this is a program that looks and feels like it’s on the cusp of turning a corner. Last week, Mizzou didn’t scare anybody in a 33-28 win over Vanderbilt, and you wonder which team will show up; that one or the one that dominated Florida?

UT playing at Neyland Stadium with a ton to play for, I believe, is going to be the difference in this one in a close one. This will be a vital win for the Vols.

Vols win 33-30

LOCKS

We were one (well, two) stupid LSU running back decision away from going 5-2 again. But, thanks to Nick Brossette sliding down not once but TWICE inside the 10-yard line rather than score a late stat-padding touchdown, the Tigers failed to cover against Arkansas, dropping us to 4-3.

That’s not really fair, but that’s gambling. That’s why it doesn’t really pay to do it for real. There are big buildings and bright lights in Vegas for reason, right? Even so, we were over .500 for the fourth straight week, so … MAKING MONEY! We’re 36-34 for the year, and hopefully we can improve on that this week.

The final tally last week was West Virginia easily covering 11.5 over TCU, Ohio State’s late rally to cruise past the 4-point line over Michigan State, MTSU narrowly covering the 13.5 spread against UTEP winning by 16, and Wazzu handling Colorado. That’s a good thing because we picked Purdue to beat Minnesota and the Gophers won 41-10. We also thought Oregon would beat Utah outright, and that didn’t happen. The LSU debacle despite coach Ed Orgeron continually trying to score dropped us to 4-3. Here are this week’s picks.

1. Nebraska +1.5 over Michigan State: This is a bit of a gamble, I know, but I believe in what Scott Frost is building in Lincoln, and I think Adrian Martinez is the kind of quarterback who can give the Spartans issue. Take the upset.
2. Syracuse +10 over Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish have surprised all season, but this Syracuse team has scored 50-plus points in five games and is in the nation’s top five in turnover differential. This is the best team ND has played since Michigan, and the Orange will cover (at least).
3. Texas Tech -6.5 over Kansas State: The Red Raiders score a ton of points, and while they also give up a ton, the Wildcats can’t hang offensively. I don’t see any scenario where this fails to be a double-digit win.
4. Tennessee +6 over Missouri: For reasons stated above, the Vols not only cover but win outright.
5. West Virginia -5 over Oklahoma State: This is not enough points. There is no way the Cowboys will stop the Mountaineers, and though there will be plenty of points scored on both sides, I’m going with the best defense.
6. Boston College -1.5 over Florida State: What? No way. The Seminoles are awful. Eagles roll.
7. Ole Miss +3 over Vanderbilt: The Commodores have crashed the past two seasons despite beating the Vols each of those years. Ole Miss has a great offense, and much like in the Texas Tech game above, VU just can’t score enough to win this one. It’ll be similar to the Mizzou game.

The statistical comps for this Saturday’s matchup between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Missouri Tigers are all over the place. Part of the noise is likely due to Tennessee’s accelerated improvement curve under Jeremy Pruitt.

Another factor contributing to the noise, though, appears to be solely on Missouri’s side. The Tigers seem to be as likely to pile up numbers by rolling over opponents when they find something that works as they are to simply get beat by teams as good or better than they are. They scored 65 points against Memphis but only 14 against Kentucky. Even against similarly good teams, there’s a huge variance: Against No. 1 Alabama, they scored only 10 points, but against No. 2 Georgia, they put up 29.

So, the SPM thinks that Missouri is going to easily cover the Vegas spread this week, but I’m highly suspicious of its nearly 23-point spread. I’m still thinking Missouri wins, but in a much closer game. And yet, if the Tigers find something they can exploit against the Vols, they’ll convert that into a bunch of points.

Predictions

SPM: Missouri 39.5, Tennessee 16.8 (Missouri, -22.7)

Eye- and gut-adjusted: Missouri 31, Tennessee 27 (Missouri, -4)

Tennessee rushing yards: 180

Missouri rushing yards: 110

Tennessee passing yards: 240

Missouri passing yards: 280

Tennessee points: 27

Missouri points: 31

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 136.4 rushing yards per game, while Missouri is giving up 134.1 per game. The closest comparison, for a prior Tennessee opponent that is not as good at run defense as is Missouri, is Kentucky, which is giving up 141.4 yards per game on the ground. Tennessee got 215 against them. The closest comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent that is better at defending the run than Missouri is Georgia, which is allowing 131.0. Tennessee got 66 on the ground against Georgia.

I believe the Vols’ run game has improved since Georgia, so I’m angling for something closer to last week. My guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Missouri is 180.

Missouri rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 152.7 rushing yards per game, while the Missouri run game is averaging 195.9 yards per game. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Kentucky, which is getting 187.3 yards per game on the ground, and they got 77 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 203.1 rushing yards per game and got 201 against Tennessee.

So, early in the season, Florida got its average. Last week, the Vols held Kentuck and Benny Snell to less than half their average.

On the other hand, Missouri generally gets more than their opponents are giving. Against Memphis (giving up an average of 169.1), they got 273. Against Purdue (giving up 144.8), they got 233. This will become a theme as we continue to look at the numbers: When the Missouri Tigers find something that works, they milk that sucker dry. But when they struggle and they have no other options, they’ll just get beat.

So, it seems to me that Missouri’s numbers seem to be a little inflated due simply getting beat some of the time but also putting success on repeat when they can. Is Tennessee a team that can disrupt their playlist? That’s the main question this weekend, I think.

My guess on that all-important question Saturday is that this Tennessee team at this point in the season can play with these guys, so I’m going with Missouri having to work and being limited to about 110 rushing yards against Tennessee’s defense.

Tennessee passing

Tennessee is averaging 204.5 passing yards per game, and Missouri is allowing 276.5, the worst pass defense the Vols have faced this year. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is West Virginia. They’re allowing 233.7 passing yards per game, and Tennessee got 172 against them. That almost seems like a different season at this point.

So, I think Tennessee may get well above its average in the passing game this week. Let’s call it 240 passing yards this weekend for the good guys.

Missouri passing

The Tennessee pass defense is allowing 205.1 passing yards per game. Missouri is getting 277.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is getting 250.7 yards per game through the air, and they got 152 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Alabama, which is averaging 323.7 passing yards per game and got 327 against Tennessee.

The Gamecocks managed not far above their average against Tennessee, and even high-powered Alabama only got its average against Pruitt’s guys.

I’m going with Missouri getting somewhere around its average of 280 passing yards against Tennessee this weekend.

Tennessee scoring

Tennessee is averaging 24.3 points per game, and Missouri is allowing 27.6. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is South Carolina, which is allowing 28.7 points per game, and Tennessee got 24 against them. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Charlotte. They’re allowing 25.3 points per game, and Tennessee got 14 against them.

I’m thinking that Charlotte game was an outlier — a Tennessee team not yet good enough to sleepwalk through any game still falling prey to the temptation.

However, while the Vols offense has shown some flashes this season, they’re still really only good for a few touchdowns and a field goal or two per game, so my prediction is that Tennessee will get about what Missouri is giving, namely 24-27 points. Let’s call it 27 because I just drank my coffee.

Missouri scoring

Tennessee is allowing 24.7 points per game. Missouri is averaging 35.5. The closest “not-as-good” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Florida, which is averaging 31.0 points, and they got 47 against Tennessee. The closest “better-than” comparison for a prior Tennessee opponent is Georgia, which is averaging 37.0 points and got 38 against Tennessee.

Does all of that mean that good teams put up more points than usual against Tennessee? The Florida game featured six turnovers. Georgia, well, Missouri’s not Georgia, right? Let’s hope. But against good defenses — Florida notwithstanding — they’re generally scoring between 28 and 35 points.

I’m going with Missouri putting up about 31 points in Neyland against Tennessee.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

The Vegas spread favors Missouri by 5.5-6, with an over/under of 55.5-56.5, which converts to somewhere around 31-25, Missouri.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ says Tennessee has a 32.2% chance of winning and puts the score at Missouri 34.8, Tennessee 26.8, a spread of -8.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 31.7% chance of winning.

Left alone, the SPM says Missouri 39.5, Tennessee 16.8, a spread of -22.7.

After eye- and gut-adjustments, I’m going with Missouri 31, Tennessee 27, a spread of -4.

There’s not a lot going on prior to Saturday, so if you need to get some stuff done, use your Thursday and Friday well.

Gameday

The noon slate features a couple of past Vols’ opponents in Florida and Kentucky, but both should roll against lesser opponents. If you’re looking for something that might be a bit more enjoyable, check out No. 12 Syracuse and No. 3 Notre Dame at 2:30 on NBC. I know, it’s dumb for it to be on at 2:30, but hey.

Tennessee hosts Missouri at 3:30 on CBS, so that’s your main appointment for the day, but keep an eye on the score in the game between No. 9 West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Could be some fireworks there.

In the evening, evenly matched No. 16 Iowa State and No. 15 Texas meet for what should be a good game, and No. 24 Cincinnati has what may be the best chance to knock off an undefeated No. 11 UCF.

Full sortable and searchable college football TV schedule

It’s time to check in on the Vols’ rankings in all of the official NCAA statistical rankings.

Offense

Defense

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties