Tennessee vs Louisville Preview

The one good thing about your rival being at the peak of their powers is the reward for beating them. And when your rival is operating at the peak of their powers with a head coach that’s especially fun to hate, bonus points.

Louisville is certainly not Tennessee’s rival – the Vols won the first six meetings from 1913-1922, and the Cardinals have won 12 of the other 13 since – but Rick Pitino used to be. He went 14-3 against the Vols at Kentucky, winning the last nine in a row by an average of 25 points. Those nine games were my middle and high school days, and those blowouts gave me a significant amount of disdain for Pitino. But then he left for my beloved Boston Celtics; it was an odd feeling but, hey, the way he dominated at UK, surely he’ll bring championships back to Boston, right?

Nope: 36-46, 19-31 in the shortened 1999 season, 35-47, then fired after a 12-22 start. Larry Bird wasn’t walking through that door, but half the guys who played at Kentucky were.

Pitino went to Louisville, which had a four-year home-and-home agreement with Buzz Peterson’s Vols. And…one-point loss, three-point loss, three-point loss, blow out. Three years later the most successful Tennessee team in program history went to the Sweet 16, ran into Louisville as a three-seed…and lost by 19.

All of that to say this: no individual has done more damage with less return to more teams that I care about than Rick Pitino. And I’m mad he’s not on the sideline to get beat tonight.

Instead it’s Chris Mack, a great coach who made four Sweet 16’s and an Elite Eight in nine years at Xavier, plus won the Big East outright over Villanova last year. It’s been a minute since we’ve seen Louisville on the national stage for something other than Pitino and drama: after going Final Four, National Champs, Sweet 16, Elite Eight from 2012-15, the Cardinals were ineligible in 2016, got bounced in the second round in 2017, and fell to the NIT during their tumultuous 2018.

A 9-9 finish in the ACC is still nothing to sneeze at; the Cardinals finished 38th in KenPom but graduated their starting point guard and lost three others early to the NBA. They’ve played a lot of no one in their 3-0 start – Nicholls State, Southern, and Vermont – but do jump out at you statistically in a couple of ways.

The Cardinals are fifth nationally in effective field goal percentage and first in the country in free throw rate. In the opener against Nicholls, Louisville went 42-of-55 (!!!!!!) at the line. Nicholls went 12-of-16. In a 50-point win over Southern, they were 31-of-39. Against Vermont, 26-of-33. The Cardinals are 27th nationally in free throws attempted and 21 of the teams ahead of them have played at least five games; Louisville has played three.

So yeah, these dudes get to the line. Jordan Nwora (6’7″) averages 18-6, V.J. King (6’6″) averages 11-4, and Akoy Agau (6’8″) averages 7-7. Throw in 6’11” Malik Williams, and you’ve got plenty of length to go around in the rotation, plus a really hot shooting guard in Darius Perry. It looks like a Pitino team. The good news: Tennessee, so far, has been much better at defending without fouling this year. Their 50 personal fouls on the season rank 327th in the nation.

The good guys have been playing their starting five a bunch of minutes early: between 28.6 for Kyle Alexander and 33.7 for Admiral Schofield. Fulkerson and Pons have been the go-to’s off the bench, but it’ll be interesting to see how Lamonte Turner factors into the equation in his first game back.

Of course, Kansas is out there waiting. There’s a scenario here where the Vols could sweep the week and find themselves ranked second in the nation next week, behind the winner of Duke and, I’m assuming, Gonzaga in Maui. The Vols are currently ranked fifth and could/should get a shot at the #2 Jayhawks on Friday. Virginia is at #4, but their Battle 4 Atlantis field isn’t as strong this year, with only #25 Wisconsin ranked in the rest of the bracket.

That’s all getting ahead of ourselves, but when you’re ranked this high that’s what Thanksgiving basketball is all about: let’s see what we’ve got against the best of the best and file it away for March. The Vols are certainly playing to win the SEC again, but also to get as far up the bracket as possible. A shot at Kansas lets you take your temperature; beating the Jayhawks allows you to stay in the top-line national conversation.

But to get there, we’ll have to go through Louisville first. 5:00 PM ET, ESPN2. Happy Thanksgiving.

 

One Month from Early Signing Period, Defensive Board Has Elite Prospects at Each Position

Coming out of the Missouri game, Tennessee is 5-5 and has a win or go home matchup against fellow .500 squad Vanderbilt in Neyland West, aka Memorial Stadium in Nashville.  Coach Jeremy Pruitt currently has the #2 recruiting class in the SEC East and 15th nationally, with needs addressed across the roster and positioned for an outstanding finish to their first full class.

Since we looked at the Offensive Board last week, there have been a few happenings on that side of the ball:

RB Eric Gray once again eschewed a visit to Michigan – where he as of this writing is still committed – to take another visit to Knoxville and the Vols are in excellent position to flip him.  He would be an outstanding addition to a roster in desperate need of playmakers, not to mention another stake in the ground for Pruitt and Tennessee in the fertile recruiting area that is Memphis.

WR Javonta Payton took his official visit to Mississippi State and committed to the Bulldogs.  While at one point it seemed like he was a Tennessee lean, Payton appears to have made a final decision.  That puts WR Khafre Brown at the front of the list of remaining WR targets – although they will absolutely continue to try for 5-star WR Jadon Haselwood (who took an OV to Florida State this weekend, though the Seminoles are not a real contender in this writer’s mind) – and while Brown isn’t as physically developed as the JUCO product Payton he is a burner (10.7 in the 100-meter dash) and will absolutely improve the speed on the roster.

OL Darnell Wright was thought to be a possible unofficial visitor in Knoxville but once again didn’t make it.  However, the Vols appear to still be in the driver’s seat for the 5-star West Virginia native.  With his season having ended this past Friday, Wright will start to set up his official visits.  The Vols will need to continue to fight for the coveted lineman until he makes a final decision, with Alabama continuing to be the primary competition and UGA and Clemson trying to be players.

ATH Xavier Leggette was left out of the previous piece because Jeremy Pruitt to this point has taken prospects who play on both sides of the ball and put them on Defense.  However, Leggette – who took another unofficial to home-state South Carolina this past weekend – has expressed a clear desire to play WR.  Both the Cocks and the Vols still have official visits left to host Leggette, but his coach recently stated that Tennessee has seemed to show him more love to Carolina to this point.

Below we take a look at the Defensive Board, where the Vols have needs at each position and current commitments Lakia Henry and Ledarrius Cox are still looking around:

Defensive Line/Pass-Rushers

At position where no program can ever have enough bodies, and Tennessee in particular has a need for both quantity and quality, the Vols do in fact have six commitments from Defensive Linemen/Pass-Rushers.  And while the recruiting rankings for the six prospects run the gamut, from this vantage point Tennessee has amassed a group that has a great mix of immediate impact potential and long-term upside.  At the same time, there is still a need to add at least one more player to this list, and Tennessee is recruiting as such.  Interestingly, however, the majority of the players on the list below are committed elsewhere, which will make it that much more difficult to land another impact DL prospect.

DL Justin Eboigbe – An Alabama commitment who visited Knoxville over the summer and then again for an UV for the Kentucky game, the Atlanta-area native has had an outstanding senior season playing both inside and out on the DL.  As of now it remains to be seen if the Vols can get him back to campus again for an OV, and regardless the Tide will host him on the last weekend before Signing Day.  Therefore it goes without saying that this will be a tough pull, but Tennessee has positioned itself as well as one can for a player committed to the national champs

Pass-Rusher Niadre Zouzoua –  Perhaps the most “gettable” prospect on this list, as well as one of the most intriguing, Zouzoua is an early-enrollee JUCO Passrusher who along with his Vol offer (picked up in early October when his film got out) also holds offers from Nebraska, Baylor, Temple, and Rutgers. He’s 6’5, 230-pounds with really nice speed off the edge and right now is scheduled to take his Tennessee OV the December 7th weekend, followed by an OV to Baylor the following weekend that immediately precedes Signing Day. Zouzoua was a multi-sport athlete in high school, playing hoops and running track, so he fits that mold of what Pruitt likes in his signees.  Given the need for pass-rushers on the roster, as well as the struggles in gaining traction with them in this class – not to discount the two current commitments Jalil Clemons and Roman Harrison, both of whom I am very high on – I think Zouzoua could be a guy who if the Vols like what they see on his visit to Knoxville that they pounce on.  Being an early enrollee would allow him to go through spring practice and be ready to immediately join the rotation in 2019.

 

DL Jared Harrison-Hunte  –  At 6’4 and 285 lbs, the New York native is a prospect that has quietly been on Tennessee’s radar for a long time.  Originally scheduled to officially visit Knoxville this past weekend, he’s instead was at Arizona State.  He is now set for a gauntlet of high-profile visits that belie his 3-star ranking, starting with Ohio State this weekend, followed by PSU the following and then Tennessee either December 7th or 14th. A January OV to Michigan State has also been discussed, so whether he signs in December or February appears to be up in the air.  Depending on how things go with Eboigbe in December and of course whether or not he makes it past his OSU and PSU visits, the Vols could really turn the pressure up when/if he makes it to Knoxville.

 

DL Nick Figureoa – A JUCO prospect with a Tennessee offer; Figueroa is a 6’5, 270-pound DE who is originally from California and is playing his JUCO ball there as well.  He’s got a UCLA offer and they could be the favorite, but he’s also got offers from Virginia Tech (11/30 OV) and Georgia Tech.  Not likely a priority at the moment, the Vols could turn back here depending on how things go with other prospects.

DL Kristian Varner – A former Louisville commitment took an unofficial visit to Knoxville for the Missouri game, Varner doesn’t appear to be a priority at the moment despite having a Vol offer for a while.  However, he’s got a large offer list after a nice senior season and the GA native is a nice-looking developmental prospect.

DL Zion Logue/Travon Walker/Nolan Smith – Three UGA commitments, two of whom – Smith and Walker – who took official visits for the Missouri game.  None of them appear to be truly in play for the Vols at this point.

DL Joseph Anderson – South Carolina commitment from Nashville who at one time tried to commit to the Vols but was put on hold.  There have been some rumblings that there could be something brewing here but at this point I don’t put much stock into it unless and until he shows up again in Knoxville.

Inside Linebacker

Perhaps more than any other position on the defense, Inside Linebacker is a position on the current roster that has been exposed during the 2018 season as being in need of a major talent upgrade.  The current ILBs on the roster – with the exception of freshman JJ Peterson (and this is solely based on his rating coming out of high school) – simply don’t have the athletic ability/size combination to both play in space while at the same time matching up against run-heavy offenses.  To this point, however, the Vols only have one ILB commitment, albeit from a bigtime JUCO prospect in Lakia Henry.  The good news is that Tennessee is very much in the mix for some elite level Linebackers who should be able to step in and help immediately in 2019.  None of them are done deals – far from it – but this position in particular could see a December to remember in terms of talent upgrade if things go according to plan.

Owen Pappoe – An Auburn commitment since the spring, Pappoe is an elite athlete who plays for the bigtime Grayson HS program and as such is teammates with Vol OL commit Wanya Morris as well as CB target Kenyatta Watson (more on him below).  Pappoe has been to Knoxville dozens of times since he was in 8th grade, and due to a number of factors, including but far from limited to Auburn’s on-field struggles and the subsequent roar around Gus Malzahn’s long-term if not immediate job insecurity, the Vols have surged here.  Morris being in his ear while the Vols have shown real on-field improvement and the longtime relationships Pappoe has with multiple Vol staffers have also helped.  Although nothing is set in stone, the word is that not only will Pappoe (and hopefully Watson) take an official visit to Tennessee the weekend prior to Signing Day but he is also unlikely to take an official visit to Auburn.  Should those come to pass that would be the strongest sign yet that Pappoe ends up a Vol, and as an early enrollee he would instantly be a frontrunner for early playing time in 2019.

Trezeman Marshall – A UGA commitment, Marshall took his official visit to Tennessee back in the spring before committing to the instate Dawgs.  However, the Vols dogged (pardon the pun) pursuit along with his longstanding relationships with many members of the Tennessee staff got him back to Knoxville this past weekend for another unofficial visit.  Marshall’s status as an elite prospect is certified by the fact that not only is he a UGA commitment coveted by Tennessee but he’s got upcoming visits with the likes of Alabama (this weekend) and Auburn.  Coming out of his visit to Knoxville it sounds like the Vols are neck and neck with the Dawgs, but this one will have some twists and turns before he signs his papers and enrolls at the school of his choice in January.

Henry To’oto’to – Another elite LB prospect on the board, what makes To’oto’to on this list is that he’s not a Southeast prospect but instead is from California.  That said, Tennessee is fighting a familiar foe in Alabama, as both the Vols and the Tide have a De La Salle HS alum on its side, with former Vol great Kevin Simon fighting the good fight for Tennessee.  To’oto’to took unofficials to both schools in the spring/summer, and plans on officially visiting both before signing in February.  West Coast schools such as Oregon and Cal aren’t going quietly, but the Tide are considered the leaders right now with the Vols right behind.  To’oto’to is without a doubt an elite prospect, but both schools have other LBs on the line and how they fare with those prospects could play a role in where To’oto’to ultimately signs.

Quavaris Crouch – At one time considered a Vol lean, despite taking an official visit to Knoxville for the Kentucky game this one appears to be a long shot at the moment as Clemson has taken control.  Anything can happen in recruiting, of course, but at this point I think anyone expects Crouch to end up in the right shade of orange.

Secondary

Although the Vols have 4 DB commitments (maybe 5, depending on Aaron Beasley signing Tennessee and at which position he ends up), they would love to add another if it’s the right prospect.

DB Kenyatta Watson – A Texas commitment and high school teammate of the aforementioned Wanya Morris and Pappoe, Watson has been pretty quiet about his recruitment for a while.  However, there has been a lot of buzz around him and the Vols, and while there have been conflicting reports about whether he attended this past weekend’s Missouri game, it wouldn’t surprise me if he wanted to keep that quiet.  Watson is an elite athlete with great length at 6’2 and could play any position in the secondary. The hope in Knoxville is that he and Pappoe take their final OVs before Signing Day together to Tennessee.  If they do all bets are off, and this will be one to watch until then…

DB Jammie Robinson – Another Georgia native, Robinson is a very nice prospect with offers from South Carolina, Michigan and Tennessee among others and strong interest from the instate Bulldogs pending their needs.  Robinson’s tie to the Vols is Quality Control assistant Shelton Felton, his former high school coach, and he made his first visit to Knoxville for the Florida game.  He hasn’t scheduled an official visit to Tennessee yet – he’s took his OV to South Carolina over the summer – but he’s not signing until February so there isn’t a rush.  Given that timing, it will be interesting to see how things shake out for the Vols with the rest of their board and how hard they pursue Robinson, but he’s a prospect I really like as he’s got all the athletic tools and plays with a real edge.

 

Tennessee Vols statistical rankings after Missouri

It’s time to check in on the Vols’ rankings in all of the official NCAA statistical rankings. The following compares the team’s rankings after the 2017 season to those so far in 2018. There’s a fair amount of improvement in most places.

Offense

Defense

Special Teams

Turnovers and Penalties

 

Final projected win total for the Vols for 2018: One final tossup game

In this space each week of the regular season, we update our expected win totals for the season using our projected win total machine. With only one game left, the only remaining question is what odds you’re giving Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt this week in Nashville. I’ve left the calculator in the post in case you want to use it, but mostly I wanted to use the information we’ve been compiling here each week to briefly summarize the season and what the Vols have and have not yet been able to accomplish.

  • West Virginia: #17 at the time, #9 now. Loss, 40-14
  • ETSU: The FCS Bucs are co-Southern Champs, currently ranked #22 in the FCS, and headed to the playoffs. Win, 59-3
  • UTEP: Terrible team with a bad season. Win, 24-0
  • Florida: Not ranked at the time, #13 now. Loss, 47-21
  • Georgia: #2 at the time, #5 now. Loss, 38-12
  • Auburn: #21 at the time, currently not ranked. Win, 30-24
  • Alabama: #1 at the time, #1 now. Loss, 58-21
  • South Carolina: Not ranked at the time, not ranked now. Loss, 27-24
  • Charlotte: Not ranked then or now. Win, 14-3
  • Kentucky: #11 at the time, #17 now. Win, 24-7
  • Missouri: Not ranked then or now. Loss, 50-17

Best wins: Kentucky and Auburn.

Expected outcomes: Losses to ranked Alabama, Georgia, West Virginia. Wins against ETSU, UTEP, Charlotte.

Lost opportunities: Florida (better team, but undone by turnovers instead of just getting beat), South Carolina, Missouri.

My new expected win total:

  • This week: 5.5
  • Last week: 6.1
  • After Week 10: 5.3
  • After Week 9: 5.55
  • After Week 8: 6.0
  • After Week 7: 6.3
  • After Week 6: 5.0
  • After Week 5: 4.9
  • After Week 4: 4.55
  • After Week 3: 5.5

I didn’t think that Missouri would dominate Tennessee like it did last Saturday, but neither was I surprised, because the SPM was within three points of nailing the scores for both teams. Turns out, the comps were right. The thing is, it could just as easily turned out the other way, which is why I put the chances of beating Missouri at 50%. Missouri was just too balanced and too good along the lines, and those advantages translated into a lot of points.

None of that changes my opinion about the Vanderbilt game, though, which I am still putting at 50%. Go Vols. Go bowling.

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total and post it in the comments below the post.

Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current record: 8-2 (6-2), 2nd in Big 12, #9

East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Current record: 8-3 (6-2), 1st in Southern

UTEP Miners

Current record: 1-10 (1-6), 6th in C-USA – West

Florida Gators

Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #13

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 10-1 (7-1), 1st in SEC – East, #5

Auburn Tigers

Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 4th in SEC – West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 11-0 (7-0), 1st in SEC – West, #1

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 6-4 (4-4), 4th in SEC – East

  • Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
  • Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
  • Marshall, Canceled
  • Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
  • Lost to Kentucky, 24-10
  • Beat Missouri, 37-35
  • Lost Texas A&M, 26-23
  • Bye
  • Beat Tennessee, 27-24
  • Beat Ole Miss, 48-44
  • Lost to Florida, 35-31
  • Beat Chattanooga, 49-9
  • Clemson

Charlotte 49ers

Current record: 4-7 (3-4), 4th in C-USA – East

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 8-3 (5-3), 2nd in SEC – East, #17

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 7-4 (3-4), 5th in SEC – East

The Vols’ future opponents

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 5-6 (2-5), 6th in SEC – East

GRT Guessing Game Results Week 12: Forecast calls for meteor showers

A rough game for the Vols this week translates into a rough week for most of our Guessing Game players. And if you look in the right place in the sky at the right time (usually when you’d normally be sleeping), you’ll be able to see a Blue Shell meteor shower next week. Just don’t be in the lead.

Here’s the play-by-play for this week.

Round 1

Q: Who scores first?

A: Missouri (15 points)

Nine players got this right.

Mushrooms (10 points): Evan and Andrew Cooper

Bananas (-10 points): Gavin Driskill and LTVol99

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #7 Counter: 3
  • Blue Shell #8 Counter: 4
  • New Blue Shell #9 Counter: 5
  • Evan draws a bolt and gets an extra 10 points

Top 10 after Round 1:

  1. Will Shelton
  2. Displaced_Vol_Fan
  3. Mitchell K
  4. daetilus
  5. cscott95
  6. Mariettavol
  7. Joel Hollingsworth
  8. Harley
  9. Randy Holtzclaw
  10. Jayyyy

Round 2

Q: How many sacks does Darrell Taylor get this week?

A: 0 (15 points)

Only two players got this right (jfarrar90 and Gavin Driskill.)

Mushrooms (10 points): Displaced_Vol_Fan and Mariettavol

Bananas (-10 points): JWheel101 and Andrew Cooper

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #7 Counter: 2
  • Blue Shell #8 Counter: 3
  • Blue Shell #9 Counter: 4
  • New Blue Shell #10 Counter: 5
  • No bolts

Top 10 after Round 2:

  1. Displaced_Vol_Fan
  2. Will Shelton
  3. Mitchell K
  4. Mariettavol
  5. daetilus
  6. cscott95
  7. jfarrar90
  8. Joel Hollingsworth
  9. Harley
  10. Randy Holtzclaw

Round 3

Q: Which of the following scores the most points?

A: Tennessee’s running game (15 points) (2 rushing TDs for 12 points for the run game; one FG and 2 PATs for 5 points for special teams)

Only two players — Raven17 and JWheel101 — got this right.

Mushrooms (10 points): cscott95 and LTVol99

Bananas (-10 points): Raven17 and Mariettavol

Blue shells and bolts: 

  • Blue Shell #7 Counter: 1
  • Blue Shell #8 Counter: 2
  • Blue Shell #9 Counter: 3
  • Blue Shell #10 Counter: 4
  • New Blue Shell #11 Counter: 5
  • No bolts

Yes, the random number generator is raining blue shells.

Final Standings After Week 12:

Rank Player Points
1 Displaced_Vol_Fan 107
2 Will Shelton 101.5
3 cscott95 95
4 Mitchell K 92
5 daetilus 87
6 jfarrar90 84
7 Mariettavol 79
8 Joel Hollingsworth 78.5
9 Harley 76.5
10 Randy Holtzclaw 74
11 Jayyyy 73.5
12 JWheel101 68.5
13 Raven17 62.5
14 Sam Hensley 58
15 Evan 49
16 Gavin Driskill 46
17 Jrstep 45
18 Isaac Bishop 43.5
19 HT 38
20 LTVol99 36.5
21 chadvolfan 25
22 Richard 15
23 Scott Jackson 5
24 Bulldog85 4
25 Andrew Cooper 0
26 brandon galford 0
27 Pete -5
28 rdbulet96 -5
29 Rtbrwb66 -5

Phonies wins Week 12 of the 2018 Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em Contest

Congratulations to Phonies, who finished first this week in the Gameday on Rocky Top Pick ‘Em contest with a record of 15-4 and 163 confidence points. He or she gets a Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt from our custom tee store, Web Community Tees.

Phonies, watch for a message from me (it will come through the Fun Office Pools system) about how to claim your prize.

Gameday on Rocky Top Logo Tee

 

Here are the full results for last week:

Rank Selection Name W-L Pts Tie Breaker Game (50-17)
1 Phonies 15-4 163 30-27
2 Jahiegel 13-6 156 32-25**
2 LuckyGuess 13-6 156 31-24
4 wedflatrock 13-6 154 24-17**
4 Anaconda 13-6 154 31-33
4 alanmar 13-6 154 27-31
7 Rocky4 12-7 152 24-31**
7 Rossboro 13-6 152 0-0
9 boro wvvol 13-6 151 28-31
10 Dylan pickle 15-4 150 31-28**
10 birdjam 12-7 150 24-20
10 Volfan2002 12-7 150 24-31
10 BZACHARY 14-5 150 0-0
14 UTSeven 12-7 149 34-35**
14 PAVolFan 12-7 149 21-27
16 jfarrar90 13-6 148 30-17**
16 TennRebel 12-7 148 24-17
18 mmb61 12-7 147 17-28**
18 UNDirish60 13-6 147 0-0
20 GeorgeMonkey 12-7 146 31-24
21 tpi 15-4 145 0-0
22 Joel @ GRT 13-6 143 31-27
23 ctull 12-7 141 31-21**
23 Fred4UT 12-7 141 27-24
25 spartans100 11-8 139 27-34
26 jstorie1 11-8 138 38-28**
26 ddayvolsfan 13-6 138 24-21
26 mmmjtx 11-8 138 27-34
29 JLPasour 13-6 137 28-24
30 DinnerJacket 12-7 136 7-10
31 Fightin Walking Horses 12-7 135 24-27
32 Will Shelton 10-9 134 28-31**
32 cnyvol 10-9 134 27-30
34 KeepsCornInAJar 11-8 132 28-21**
34 Bulldog 85 11-8 132 27-31
36 C_hawkfan 14-5 131 35-26
37 crafdog 13-6 130 14-34
38 RockyTop5 11-8 129 27-31**
38 ChuckieTVol 11-8 129 24-27
38 chuckiepoo 10-9 129 20-27
41 BlountVols 11-8 127 21-28
42 Raven17 10-9 126 38-42
43 vols95 9-10 123 28-31**
43 chatty daddy 11-8 123 22-26
45 Displaced_Vol_Fan 10-9 122 28-36
46 tbone9591 10-9 121 21-28
47 Keep on truckin’ 12-7 120 26-28
48 Timbuktu126 11-8 119 22-21
49 Joelarbear 9-10 117 43-54
50 Gman15 12-7 115 34-17**
50 mariettavol 8-11 115 23-30
52 MariettaVol1 9-10 113 27-28
53 waltsspac 8-11 112 24-28
54 rsbrooks25 10-9 108 29-35**
54 tcarroll90 7-12 108 26-31
54 daetilus 8-11 108 20-30
57 ga26engr 8-11 107 37-27
58 RockyPopPicks 8-11 105 17-24
59 King Nothing 9-10 103 22-26
60 ltvol99 9-10 102 30-34
61 TennVol95 in 3D! 8-11 87 31-35
62 VandyVol 0-19 86 -
62 Jayyyy 0-19 86 -
62 PensacolaVolFan 0-19 86 -
62 Knottfair 0-19 86 -
62 Brandon88 0-19 86 -
62 War Birds 0-19 86 -
62 JohnCoctostan 0-19 86 -
62 BallerVawl 0-19 86 -
62 edgarmsmith 0-19 86 -
62 Pat OMalley 0-19 86 -
62 Willewillm 0-19 86 -
62 VillaVol 0-19 86 -
62 utvol2 0-19 86 -
62 aquasox 0-19 86 -
62 IndyVolFan 0-19 86 -
62 RandyH112 0-19 86 -
62 ThePowerT 0-19 86 -
62 Techboy 0-19 86 -
62 Nick_Drake87 0-19 86 -
62 Orange Swarm 0-19 86 -
62 rockytopinky 0-19 86 -
62 BirdDawg55 0-19 86 -
62 patmd 0-19 86 -
62 tallahasseevol 0-19 86 -
62 Jrstep 0-19 86 -
62 Dmorton 0-19 86 -
62 dgibbs 0-19 86 -
62 IBleedVolOrange 0-19 86 -
62 CajunVol 0-19 86 -
62 Aaron Birkholz 0-19 86 -
62 OriginalVol1814 0-19 86 -
62 JWaldroop 0-19 86 -
62 Sam 0-19 86 -
62 DMike 0-19 86 -
62 Smokin Turkeys 0-19 86 -
62 I guess Randy Sanders was good after all 0-19 86 -

 

Jahiegel remains in the lead in the season standings. Here are the complete standings after Week 12:

Rank Player W/L Points
1 Jahiegel 166-71 1887
2 Volfan2002 164-73 1876
3 wedflatrock 165-72 1871
4 GeorgeMonkey 164-73 1864
5 PAVolFan 160-77 1861
6 C_hawkfan 165-72 1855
7 birdjam 159-78 1853
8 spartans100 160-77 1845
9 BZACHARY 161-76 1840
10 cnyvol 152-85 1839
11 Bulldog 85 160-77 1838
12 LuckyGuess 155-82 1833
13 Fred4UT 158-79 1821
14 mmb61 154-83 1815
15 Displaced_Vol_Fan 155-82 1812
16 alanmar 161-76 1804
17 JLPasour 159-78 1802
18 RockyTop5 161-76 1801
18 UNDirish60 159-78 1801
20 UTSeven 146-91 1797
21 jfarrar90 150-87 1788
22 Will Shelton 145-92 1785
22 ChuckieTVol 146-91 1785
22 chuckiepoo 153-84 1785
25 TennRebel 160-77 1776
25 mmmjtx 155-82 1776
25 Fightin Walking Horses 158-79 1776
28 boro wvvol 157-80 1775
29 Rossboro 151-86 1774
30 ctull 158-79 1771
31 VillaVol 147-90 1763
32 Rocky4 154-83 1741
32 dgibbs 139-98 1741
34 jstorie1 152-85 1737
35 Anaconda 156-81 1734
36 Joelarbear 148-89 1730
37 chatty daddy 153-84 1728
37 DinnerJacket 154-83 1728
39 MariettaVol1 146-91 1722
40 Joel @ GRT 150-87 1719
41 vols95 145-92 1713
42 tpi 158-79 1711
43 Raven17 143-94 1706
44 Phonies 142-95 1705
44 tbone9591 146-91 1705
46 tcarroll90 142-95 1692
46 mariettavol 135-102 1692
48 Jayyyy 138-99 1687
49 KeepsCornInAJar 148-89 1677
50 Dylan pickle 167-70 1675
51 RockyPopPicks 145-92 1672
52 Willewillm 122-115 1667
53 crafdog 157-80 1663
53 Knottfair 116-121 1663
55 BlountVols 137-100 1642
56 daetilus 129-108 1641
57 Sam 121-116 1639
58 ddayvolsfan 152-85 1636
59 rsbrooks25 147-90 1635
60 Keep on truckin� 145-92 1625
61 Timbuktu126 151-86 1615
62 ThePowerT 100-137 1589
63 ga26engr 141-96 1588
64 Gman15 136-101 1586
64 DMike 94-143 1586
64 RandyH112 107-130 1586
67 Jrstep 122-115 1564
68 waltsspac 118-119 1559
69 ltvol99 132-105 1543
70 edgarmsmith 102-135 1517
71 Nick_Drake87 77-160 1510
72 King Nothing 131-106 1496
73 Brandon88 72-165 1470
74 aquasox 90-147 1466
75 TennVol95 in 3D! 114-123 1450
76 JWaldroop 61-176 1445
76 Orange Swarm 73-164 1445
78 patmd 117-120 1444
79 IndyVolFan 123-114 1438
80 rockytopinky 80-157 1432
81 Dmorton 100-137 1418
82 OriginalVol1814 47-190 1356
83 PensacolaVolFan 108-129 1353
84 BallerVawl 58-179 1326
85 tallahasseevol 49-188 1315
86 VandyVol 34-203 1310
87 CajunVol 56-181 1307
88 Techboy 70-167 1294
89 War Birds 49-188 1285
90 Smokin Turkeys 22-215 1277
91 Pat OMalley 31-206 1219
92 Aaron Birkholz 10-227 1200
93 utvol2 11-226 1199
94 BirdDawg55 45-192 1194
95 IBleedVolOrange 10-227 1162
96 I guess Randy Sanders was good after all 0-237 1148
96 JohnCoctostan 0-237 1148

Sunday Best: Tennessee vs. Missouri; A Flash Back to Reality

With so much to play for on Saturday, Tennessee’s game against Missouri was a colossal thud.

It should have been the most embarrassed the Volunteers felt all year, and, if they didn’t, something is severely wrong with the program. Mizzou waltzed into Neyland Stadium with former UT head coach Derek Dooley as its offensive coordinator and walked out with a 50-17 annihilation of the Vols.

A team that needed a single win for bowl eligibility will have to wait another week. If they play anything against Vanderbilt like they did against Missouri, they’ll have to wait another year (or more). Yes, with tons of star recruits in town and with so much to play for, the Vols were flatter and forgettable as they’ve been since the Florida loss.

The two setbacks were very similar, too. If anything, the one Saturday was worse. But the true nature of the “Sunday Best” column is to find something positive to talk about. Honestly, we’ll get to a couple of those real good things later, but the best thing I can say about this one is that it’s over.

This was the first time in four trips that my 8-year-old boy has gone to Neyland and come away with a loss, and as he declared afterward, “Well, at least I had fun.”

That makes one of us, kid. But I guess that qualifies for something worth chalking up as a positive for the day; Lord knows I need something good to make me feel better…

But first, the failures…

The offensive line is awful. We all know that, and though we maybe had better vibes after last weekend’s win over Kentucky, it was more of the same against Mizzou. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano was concussed early in the first quarter, yielding to Keller Chryst for the rest of the day. Few running lanes opened up the rest of the day making UT one-dimensional (and even that dimension wasn’t very good), and the Vols failed to sustain drives for the remainder of the game.

On the other side of the ball, this was — far and away, considering the level of competition — the worst UT’s defense has played all season, too, which disappointed me more than anything. I knew the offensive line sucked. I expected coach Jeremy Pruitt to have his boys on the defensive side of the ball ready to play, and that never was the case.

Needing to pressure Drew Lock to have a chance to win, Tennessee failed to do it hardly ever, and the senior Tigers quarterback dissected the Vols like a frog in 8th-grade science class. He was brilliant, and I’m glad he’s gone. You should be, too, because the Vols had no answer for him. Want to know what should make you feel worse? It could have been even more gruesome; the Tigers dropped two guaranteed touchdown passes where they torched UT defensive backs.

Alontae Taylor looked human all day with his worst performance of his freshman year, and the safeties were atrocious, too. Lock made them look like Will Grier did at the beginning of the season.

Well, how about the rush defense? Yeah, it was nonexistent, as well. Missouri completed 50 percent of its third-down conversions, and that had something to do with Lock’s brilliance, sure, but it also didn’t hurt that the Tigers had 227 rushing yards and put itself in manageable second- and third-down situations throughout the game. The Vols didn’t have any answers.

Need a reminder just how small the margin of error is for this UT team? Look no further than two plays that were gargantuan in the final tally. At the end of the first half, Chryst led UT down the field, and the Vols looked like they’d at the very least get a field goal to trail 19-13 at halftime. They may have even made it 19-17 if they could punch it in the end zone. Instead, Chryst and his receiver failed to be on the same page on a pivotal play, and the senior threw a huge interception that was returned deep into UT territory. Mizzou punched it in for a quick score to end the half, and instead of a one-score game, it was a 26-10 halftime advantage.

Tennessee was driving again near midfield in the third quarter when Carlin Fils-aime fumbled, and it was picked up and returned for a Mizzou touchdown that put the game completely out of reach.

Ugliness ensued.

So, all that happened. It was brutal. It was disappointing. And it not only was awful for the present, but it sucked for the future, too. Tennessee had a slew of high-profile recruits in town, the Vols had built some momentum with 5-star linebacker Owen Pappoe and 5-star offensive tackle Darnell Wright [neither of which was present Saturday, thank God] and others, and they were all feeling the vibes and watching the improvement of the Vols.

Then Saturday happened.

I’m not saying one game should — or will — influence any of those guys’ decisions. The Vols will still have a good recruiting class and may even lead for both those kids who’ll be massive playmakers and first-year starters. But Saturday didn’t help the selling process. You put your resume on paper, and UT didn’t have enough to get hired pumping gas against the Tigers.

If you want some positive things from Saturday, you’ve got to look hard. Again, my kid had a good time, so there’s that, right? Right?

Also, it showed me two things that are important for team (and fan) continuity next week. No. 1, Guarantano needs to be man against the Commodores and (hopefully) in a bowl game, whether the Vols win or lose in Nashville. He is the best quarterback on the roster, and Chryst struggled at times on Saturday. He just doesn’t give you what JG does, plain and simple. But…

The positive thing about Chryst is the kid CAN be a salvageable option if JG can’t go. The deep-ball game was strong again, and he was able to get passes up to Marquez Callaway and Jauan Jennings and let those superior talents do the rest. That’s a major positive. Yes, Chryst threw a pair of interceptions and was just 7-of-19 passing, but it wasn’t all his fault. When you’re one-dimensional — and the Vols definitely were on Saturday — defenses don’t have to work as hard.

We, of all teams, should know that. Remember the Kentucky game just last week?

Tennessee can beat Vanderbilt with Chryst at the helm. There’s a better chance for that to happen if Guarantano is healthy. Hopefully, he will be.

But the best thing about Saturday is we don’t have to watch Lock torch us anymore. Man, that got old. Just forget about this one and move on. It’s a one-game season, and if the Vols can’t beat Vanderbilt, they don’t deserve to go to a bowl game, anyway.

Better days are ahead, but this team is imperfect, inconsistent and continues to be about as hot and cold as any in the country. Let’s just hope they’re the former next weekend, or we’ll be watching bowl season from our couches.

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Missouri

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 5-5 (2-4) Tennessee Vols playing for bowl eligibility and hosting the 6-4 (2-4) Missouri Tigers on CBS. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Saturday, November 17, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
Idaho No. 13 Florida 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
Middle Tennessee No. 17 Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
No. 12 Syracuse No. 3 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
AFTERNOON SLATE
Missouri Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS Live Go Vols!
No. 9 West Virginia Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN Watch the score Past Opponent
EVENING SLATE
No. 16 Iowa State No. 15 Texas 8:00 PM LHN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup
No. 24 Cincinnati No. 11 UCF 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN Channel Hop Top 25 Matchup

 

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for the day:

Date Away Home Time TV
Wed Nov 14 Buffalo Ohio 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Wed Nov 14 Miami (OH) Northern Illinois 8:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Thu Nov 15 Toledo Kent State 6:00 PM CBSSN
Thu Nov 15 Tulane Houston 8:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Thu Nov 15 Florida Atlantic North Texas 9:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 16 No. 25 Boise State New Mexico 9:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Nov 16 Memphis SMU 9:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Arkansas No. 21 Mississippi State 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Idaho No. 13 Florida 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Middle Tennessee No. 17 Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 10 Ohio State Maryland 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 14 Penn State Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 No. 22 Northwestern Minnesota 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 The Citadel No. 1 Alabama 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Colgate Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 Michigan State Nebraska 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Nov 17 Pittsburgh Wake Forest 12:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 South Florida Temple 12:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 TCU Baylor 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 17 NC State Louisville 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 TBD Catawba 1:05 PM
Sat Nov 17 No. 19 Utah Colorado 1:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 No. 23 Utah State Colorado State 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 17 Florida Intl Charlotte 2:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 TBD Averett 2:00 PM
Sat Nov 17 VMI Old Dominion 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 No. 12 Syracuse No. 3 Notre Dame 2:30 PM NBC
Sat Nov 17 Georgia State Appalachian State 2:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 UTSA Marshall 2:30 PM
Sat Nov 17 UL Monroe Arkansas State 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 Western Carolina North Carolina 3:00 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Missouri Tennessee 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Nov 17 No. 20 Boston College Florida State 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 9 West Virginia Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Bowling Green Akron 3:30 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 Iowa Illinois 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 Louisiana Tech Southern Mississippi 3:30 PM
Sat Nov 17 Miami Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Texas State Troy 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 Texas Tech Kansas State 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Tulsa Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 USC UCLA 3:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 17 Virginia Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Wisconsin Purdue 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Nov 17 Indiana No. 4 Michigan 4:00 PM FS1
Sat Nov 17 UMass No. 5 Georgia 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Air Force Wyoming 4:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Liberty Auburn 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Oregon State No. 18 Washington 4:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 Georgia Southern Coastal Carolina 5:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Nov 17 Nevada San Jose State 5:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 South Alabama Louisiana 5:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Nov 17 Duke No. 2 Clemson 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 UAB Texas A&M 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 UConn East Carolina 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 Kansas No. 6 Oklahoma 7:30 PM FOX
Sat Nov 17 Rice No. 7 LSU 7:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Chattanooga South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Ole Miss Vanderbilt 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Stanford California 7:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 UTEP Western Kentucky 7:30 PM
Sat Nov 17 No. 16 Iowa State No. 15 Texas 8:00 PM LHN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 No. 24 Cincinnati No. 11 UCF 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 New Mexico State BYU 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Arizona No. 8 Washington State 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Nov 17 Arizona State Oregon 10:30 PM PAC12
Sat Nov 17 San Diego State Fresno State 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Nov 17 UNLV Hawai'i 11:00 PM

 

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

Pace and Space and Total Plays

Two years ago Tennessee beat Missouri 63-37, part of a sterling November performance for Josh Dobbs and the Vol offense. Tennessee led the nation in yards per play that month (stats via SportSource Analytics), averaging 8.96 per snap against Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. The next-closest team in November was Colorado State at 8.51. It was incredibly impressive.

But against Missouri, some of the post-game press went to what the Tigers did against the Vol defense: 740 yards! 420 on the ground! Oh the humanity!

It was a huge day for the Tigers…mostly because they ran 110 plays.

Mizzou’s 6.73 yards per play that day certainly didn’t represent a great effort by Bob Shoop’s unit. But Texas A&M, Alabama, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt were all more successful per-play against the Vol defense. They just didn’t snap it 110 times while giving up 63 points in just 67 plays on the other end.

Much has changed for Tennessee since then, but not a whole lot for Missouri. Derek Dooley now calls the plays, but the Tigers still love to get up and go. And this is the biggest difference between these two teams: Missouri has run 776 plays, eighth nationally among teams playing 10 games or fewer so far, and the fastest pace in the SEC. Tennessee has run 620 plays, fourth-slowest nationally among teams playing 10 games or more, and dead last in the SEC. Missouri essentially averages two whole drives more than Tennessee per game.

Missouri isn’t so much explosive as they are relentless. In their advanced statistical profile from Bill Connelly, the Tiger offense ranks only 98th in explosiveness but 16th in efficiency. For a team running more plays than almost anyone else, the Tigers are only fifth in the SEC in gains of 10+ yards on the year. Here they have a clear advantage on the Vols, who rank 12th in the league. But when you start increasing the denomination, the gap narrows quickly.

MIZ UT
10+ 148 122
20+ 54 45
30+ 28 24
40+ 18 12
50+ 7 7

With the Tigers averaging 15+ snaps a game more than Tennessee, you would expect these differences to be greater. But Missouri hasn’t been beating people with sheer explosiveness. It’s instead an efficient, relentless offense that’s been good at creating more chances and making the most of them.

Tennessee, on the other hand, is more explosive than we give it credit for because it runs so few plays. We looked at this in-depth after the Charlotte win – Tennessee’s pace of 62 plays per game is still the second-slowest of the post-Fulmer era, bested only by last year at 61 because the offense struggled so much it couldn’t stay on the field. This team is much more deliberate about its pace, averaging 31:02 in time of possession, nearly three minutes more than last season. No doubt the Vols will look to do that again on Saturday, seeking to limit Missouri’s chances. This is exactly what Kentucky did, holding the Tigers to 62 plays. Only two of Kentucky’s five punts in that game came via three-and-outs. The Cats weren’t overly efficient – 3-of-14 on third down, 0-for-3 on fourth down – but they did a good enough job keeping the chains moving to limit Missouri’s chances.

For Tennessee’s offense, the formula for success here is a familiar one: make it count on third down, and sprinkle in enough big plays. I’m not as worried about Missouri decimating Tennessee’s defense over the top as I am about the Tigers simply eating it up one play at a time. When the Vols did well against Kentucky’s offense last week, they did well on first down and put the Cats in situations they didn’t want to be in. There are fewer situations the Tigers don’t want to be in. But I think this will be less about explosive plays allowed, and more about limiting Missouri’s overall chances by way of Tennessee’s own efficiency.

 

Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: Missouri edition

It’s time for this week’s edition of the GRT Guessing Game. If you are new here and have no idea what this is all about, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!