Gameday on Rocky Top

All of these things can be true at the same time:

• The Vols were on the wrong end of an unfortunate call in the final minutes of a big game. An Auburn three should have been ruled basket interference.
• There are plenty of other things Tennessee could have done better to win; limiting turnovers (13) and not getting carried away from the arc (28 attempts) were a good place to start today.
• The Vols are a jump-shooting team, and a really good one at that. As a result, they don’t get to the free throw line as much (29.8% free throw rate in league play, 13th in the SEC).
• Vol opponents were whistled for 20+ fouls 10 times this season. All of them came in November-January.

The Vols got a bad call. The Vols did plenty of other things wrong. The Vols don’t get to the line very often because they’re a great jump-shooting team. The Vols don’t get to the line as much as they did earlier this year.

All of it was a factor in Auburn’s 84-80 win. And all of it could be a factor in the games that matter most. And those games are coming soon.

When you’re trying to win the big prize – a position Tennessee is still getting used to – everything that precedes the NCAA Tournament is about producing your best basketball for those three weeks. And the more you win, the easier the path in the bracket.

Tennessee’s best basketball was the last two games: 71-52 over Kentucky, 71-54 over Mississippi State. The defensive end gave it that qualifier. Today, Auburn launched 34 threes and, to their absolute credit, made 13 of them (38.2%). The Vols probably got a little caught up in it, firing 28 of their own. Before we’re too quick to judge that, however, keep in mind that 28 was the second-highest total of the season…behind 29 against Gonzaga. It can work both ways.

It works better for Tennessee playing inside-out; Auburn didn’t have the interior presence of Gonzaga, so it was certainly less wise today. But Tennessee works best overall when it defends at a higher level than we saw today. Part of it was Admiral Schofield’s foul trouble, limiting him to only 25 minutes. But that’s also simply part of who Tennessee is: the Vols play a short rotation, and can be vulnerable when the whistle doesn’t go their way.

So yes, the whistle got weird at LSU and Auburn. That’s half of Tennessee’s losses and two-thirds in SEC play; unless Vanderbilt gets the Holy Spirit tonight, the Vols (and possibly Kentucky) will become the first team to go 15-3 in SEC play and fail to win the title. Some of it is bad luck. Some of it is poor officiating. Some of it is Tennessee needing to be even better.

Much like the loss at Rupp, Tennessee can use this as a learning experience. On the whole, a 27-4 (15-3) season with overtime losses to Kansas and LSU, a four-point loss at Auburn, and falling at Rupp Arena? That’s an excellent year, worthy of the one seed conversation. When it started at 23-1 (11-0) and finished 4-3 – due more than anything to the increased degree of difficulty in the schedule – it feels a little more disappointing.

But the last word of this season is a long way from being written.

If the Vols are out of the No. 1 seed conversation, their biggest loss today is potentially having to face the very best teams (Virginia and full-strength Duke) in the Elite Eight instead of the Final Four. I don’t think the Vols are totally eliminated from the No. 1 seed conversation – what Kentucky and North Carolina do today and next week will matter – but they had to be considered the favorite going into today.

But the biggest picture finds a Tennessee team that just put its best basketball on the floor in Knoxville, then took itself out of it at Auburn before hot three-point shooting and a bad call finished them off. The Vols no longer control their own destiny for the SEC title and a No. 1 seed. But they absolutely control their own destiny for their best basketball showing up in the NCAA Tournament.

Keep getting better.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this weekend, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Saturday

Today’s the last day of the SEC regular season, and heading into today’s action, Tennessee and LSU are tied at 15-2 while Kentucky is one game back at 14-3. There are three games that will impact the SEC regular season championship today, and fortunately, they’re not all on at the same time.

First up, is Tennessee at Auburn at noon on ESPN. Check out our narrative and four factors game previews.

If Tennessee wins, the game at 2:00 on CBS between Kentucky and Florida won’t matter, as the Wildcats will still be at least one game behind regardless of anything else. If the Vols lose, however, we’ll not only want Kentucky to lose as well, we’ll need them to. You don’t have to actually choke out the words, “Go Gators,” but you do want those guys to win today.

And then at 8:30 tonight on the SEC Network, winless (in the conference) Vanderbilt goes to an LSU team playing without their suspended head coach. It’s extremely unlikely, but we want the Tigers to lose. Hey, this is college basketball, where crazy things can happen.

Of course, the SEC regular season championship isn’t the only thing of importance today, as the Vols are also jockeying for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

On that front, the biggest game to watch today is the showdown between Duke and North Carolina at 6:00 on ESPN. In case you’re wondering, yes, we have an opinion on who Vols fans should root for in the Blue Devils-Tar Heels game.

Also important is the Michigan-Michigan State game at 8:00 on ESPN. Those two teams are more remote threats, but they could become factors under certain circumstances.

Sunday

Tomorrow, Houston (which remains No. 6 in the all-important NET Rankings) could have its hands full with Cincinnati. That game is on at noon on CBS.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this weekend:

Since the SEC expanded in 2012-13 and went to an 18-game schedule, here are your champions:

• 2013: Florida wins at 14-4, three others at 12-6
• 2014: Florida goes undefeated at 18-0, two others 12-6
• 2015: Kentucky goes undefeated at 18-0, Arkansas 13-5
• 2016: Texas A&M and Kentucky split at 13-5
• 2017: Kentucky wins at 16-2, Florida 14-4
• 2018: Tennessee and Auburn split at 13-5

We’ve never seen three teams win at least 14 games, which is where things sit right now. If Kentucky beats Florida on Saturday, that’s three teams with at least 15 wins. And if the Vols win at Auburn and LSU beats 0-17 Vanderbilt (which we’ve also never seen on the other end of the spectrum), the league title will be shared at 16-2.

There are plenty of questions about Will Wade at the moment, including whether the LSU administration wants the image of him on a ladder cutting down nets if/when the Tigers beat Vanderbilt Saturday night. As the Vols can only control the Vols, we’ll focus on Auburn and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But it’s worth pointing out how amazing a 16-2 run through the SEC would be, even if it ends with an unprecedented tie for the title.

What’s the Simplest Path to a No. 1 Seed?

In Thursday’s Bracket Matrix, Virginia and Duke are unanimous No. 1 seeds in the 90 brackets in the pool; Gonzaga is just behind with an average seed of 1.07. And Tennessee is currently the fourth No. 1 seed with an average seed of 1.38, a good bit ahead of Kentucky (1.81) and North Carolina (1.83).

If Tennessee wins at Auburn and Duke wins at Chapel Hill, that could do it. There are various thoughts on if you want Duke or Carolina to prevail, but if we’re looking for simplicity, that includes giving up on the notion that Tennessee could be seeded higher than both Duke and UNC and back atop the Louisville region. A North Carolina win on Saturday could introduce that possibility, giving both Duke and Carolina five losses to Tennessee’s three. But given Tennessee’s history with the selection committee and the names on the front of the jersey, I’m not sure I like those odds. Could the selection committee put three ACC teams on the top line? Probably not, but when a program with zero Final Fours under its belt is the alternative, it makes me nervous.

In the last three years, the average No. 1 seed has 4.67 losses on Selection Sunday. So a Tennessee team at 28-3 (16-2), if it goes through Auburn, should feel pretty good about its chances heading to the SEC Tournament. But we also have a bit of institutional memory here: in 2008 the Vols went to the SEC Tournament at 28-3 (14-2), lost by a point in the semifinals post-tornado, and were given a No. 2 seed despite being No. 1 in RPI. It’s one of the better what-if’s in recent Tennessee history: that team’s path to the Final Four went through a criminally under-seeded Butler team in the second round, then ran into a match-up nightmare in the Sweet 16 against No. 3 Louisville. Had the Vols earned the final No. 1 seed instead of Kansas (who, to their credit, ultimately won it all), we could have seen Chris Lofton vs Steph Curry in the Elite Eight.

But we’ve seen a 28-3 Tennessee team that spent time at No. 1 in the regular season get denied on Selection Sunday. In this decade, six major conference teams failed to earn a No. 1 seed despite having less than five losses:

• 2012 Missouri (30-4) – lost to No. 15 Norfolk State in Round One
• 2014 Villanova (28-4) – lost to No. 7 UConn in Round Two
• 2015 Virginia (29-3) – lost to No. 7 Michigan State in Round Two
• 2015 Arizona (31-3) – lost to No. 1 Wisconsin in Elite Eight
• 2017 UCLA (29-4) – lost to No. 2 Kentucky in Sweet 16
• 2017 Arizona (30-4) lost to No. 11 Xavier in Sweet 16

So the committee could say, “See, we got it right, none of those teams made the Final Four (and only one made the Elite Eight).” This is a disgruntled list you don’t want to be on, though the last three times it happened to teams from a diminished Pac-12. If the Vols do fall to No. 2 even after a win at Auburn, feeling sorry for yourself is a recipe for disaster.

But the Vols have the Bracket Matrix, NET, and Torvik’s predictive bracketology all on their side at the moment. Nothing is certain, but you can make a really good argument for the Vols as the favorite to earn that final No. 1 seed.

But all of those roads go through Auburn.

On The Plains

Auburn rallied from down 11 at halftime to win at Alabama on Tuesday. I would imagine sharing the floor with their in-state brethren offered some support, but tomorrow will be the first game back at Auburn since tornadoes took 23 lives in the area. It’s also senior day for Bryce Brown; there will be emotions of all kinds in the building.

The Tigers are 21-9 (10-7), but other than a three-point loss at South Carolina, every defeat is to a Top 50 team in KenPom. Their only losses at home are to Kentucky (82-80) and Ole Miss (60-55). The Rebels took the invitation to launch threes and went 13-of-33 (39.4%) while Auburn hit just 5-of-20 (25%).

Austin Wiley missed the last three games with a leg injury; Pearl referred to him as “doubtful, but not out” yesterday. Without him this is a much smaller team. But Chuma Okeke can still bang, and this team beat the Vols in Knoxville last year solely on the strength of offensive rebounds in a stat line that’s still hard to believe: 22 offensive rebounds, 24 defensive rebounds.

Teams that have wanted to play fast with Tennessee have often regretted it (Louisville, Memphis, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, etc.). The Tigers have the best-of-Pearl quality of controlled chaos: third in the league in turnovers allowed, third in creating turnovers. Statistically they aren’t crashing the offensive glass as hard this year, but the memories of last season will linger until the Vols prove otherwise.

But it’s the willingness to shoot and let shoot that’s most striking about this team: in SEC play, almost half of Auburn’s field goal attempts are from three (49.2%). And 43.6% of opponent attempts are from three.

One thing about this: it’s been less about Auburn’s makes than the opponent’s when it comes to wins and losses. When the opposition shoots less than 33.3% from the arc, Auburn is 11-1, its only loss to Duke. When teams hit at least 33.3% from three, Auburn is 10-8.

So, do you take the bait? Only seven teams have taken less than 20 threes against the Tigers this year. The Vols have taken less than 20 threes 15 times this year. Tennessee is 333rd nationally in the percentage of points they get from the arc. It could be a poise game in an emotionally charged environment.

Much is on the line. The Vols and Tigers will go first (Noon, ESPN), with Duke and Carolina at 6:00 PM and LSU hosting Vanderbilt at 8:30 PM. Tennessee has never won back-to-back SEC Championships. I think this team has plenty of history left.

Go Vols.

No. 4 Tennessee (NET Rankings) travels to Auburn to take on the No. 19 Tigers tomorrow at noon on ESPN. It’s another opportunity for the Vols to get one of those all-important Quadrant 1 wins.

Here’s a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers. Spoiler: Every category but one looks even when you put offense versus defense, but Tennessee appears to have an advantage on both ends of the floor in shooting percentage. They need to make sure they outshoot Auburn and keep everything else close to a tie.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.4 (No. 22) (down from 55.6 (No. 16))
• Auburn 53.9 (No. 51)

Prior opponents:

• Mississippi State 54.6 (No. 36)
• Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)
• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: Tennessee’s recent focus on defense has had some marginal negative impact on its offensive effective field goal percentage, but it’s still really, really good. Auburn, meanwhile, is not much different from Tennessee’s last three opponents in this category, meaning they’re not as good as the Vols, but they are still good.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.8 (No. 23) (down from 15.6 (No. 20))
• Auburn 18.3 (No. 151)

Prior opponents:

• Mississippi State 19.1 (No. 220)
• Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)
• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: Different game, same story. Tennessee protects the ball, and its opponent does not.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 31.2 (No. 90) (up from 30.9 (No. 94))
• Auburn 33.5 (No. 39)

Prior opponents:

• Mississippi State 34.6 (No. 23)
• Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)
• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: Tennessee is trending in the right direction in OR%, but it’s still not up to the level of its recent competition. Auburn is good at this, but not as good as either Kentucky or LSU. They’re essentially right in between Mississippi State and Ole Miss.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 33.9 (No. 159) (down from 34.1 (No. 155))
• Auburn 30.9 (No. 245)

Prior opponents:

• Mississippi State 33.0 (No. 188)
• Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)
• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: Good news. Auburn is allergic to the free throw line. They’re worse at getting there than any of the Vols’ last five opponents.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.4 (No. 22), while Auburn’s defense against that is 50.8 (No. 174).

When Auburn has the ball

The Tigers’ shooting offense is 53.9 (No. 51), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.3 (No. 22).

Conclusions

Auburn’s defense shouldn’t be much of an impediment to Tennessee’s effective field goal percentage, so it will basically just be up to the Vols’ players to get good shots and then hit them. Expect the Vols to shoot well. On the other side of the ball, Auburn’s no slouch in this category, but Tennessee’s defense is equipped to make things more difficult for them than usual.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.8 (No. 23), which is really, really good. But Auburn is the best team in the nation at forcing turnovers (25.3, No. 1).

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn’s turnover % is not especially good at 18.3 (No. 151), but neither is Tennessee’s turnover defense, which is 18.9 (No. 153).

Conclusions

This is strength-on-strength when Tennessee has the ball and weakness-on-weakness when Auburn has it. Expect the Vols to have a few more turnovers than usual (11.2 average) and Auburn to have about their average of 12.8.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.2 (No. 90), while Auburn’s defense in that category is 32.9 (No. 331). This is the biggest advantage for the Vols on offense.

When Auburn has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 33.5 (No. 39), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.0 (No. 256). And again, this is the biggest advantage of the game for Tennessee’s opponent tomorrow.

Conclusions

Tennessee should have its way on the offensive board tomorrow, but Auburn should do the same on its own end. Tennessee averages 10.10 o-rebounds per game while Auburn averages 12.53. Expect both to get more.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.9 (No. 159), while Auburn’s defense against that is 37.7 (No. 286).

When Auburn has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 30.9 (No. 245), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 34.3 (No. 220).

Conclusions

To me, this looks like we should expect Tennessee to earn a few more trips to the free throw line than usual (20.4) and Auburn to get somewhere around its average of 19.3. Probably not a deciding factor.

Summary and Score Prediction

The numbers suggest that these two teams are close enough to equal in turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw attempts to call this an even matchup. If either team tips the scales on any of those three categories, it could decide the game.

Tennessee does seem to have a real advantage in effective field goal percentage, though. The Vols are marginally better shooting the ball than Auburn, plus the Vols’ defense should present more of a problem to Auburn’s offense than vice versa. I expect the Vols to outshoot the Tigers. If they do that and also maintain equilibrium in the other categories, they should come away with the victory. But the game is close enough on paper that if they don’t do both of those things, Auburn will likely win.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Keep the game even in turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate.
2. Outshoot the Tigers.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 54% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 76, Auburn 75.

Go Vols.

Here’s the latest info from the team sheets, updated through the games on Tuesday night and sorted by NET Rankings:

Tennessee is still in the Top 4 despite having their Quadrant 1 win over Mississippi State Tuesday negated by the win at Texas A&M falling from Q1 to Q2 thanks to the Aggies’ loss to South Carolina Tuesday.

Comparing Tennessee’s and Duke’s Q1 resumes

The main curiosity in the Top 4 is why Duke remains ahead of the Vols with a worse overall record and a Q2 loss to boot. Looking at the detail of each team’s Q1 record probably provides the answer.

Tennessee has home wins over No. 5 Kentucky and No. 23 Mississippi State, neutral site wins over No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 24 Louisville, and road wins over No. 34 Florida, No. 37 Ole Miss, and No. 51 Memphis. Their Q1 losses are on the road to No. 5 Kentucky and No. 13 LSU (in overtime), and on a neutral court to No. 18 Kansas (also in overtime).

Duke has only 1 Q1 home win, but it is against No. 2 Virginia. The Blue Devils have neutral site wins over No. 5 Kentucky, No. 10 Texas Tech, and No. 20 Auburn, and they have road wins over No. 2 Virginia, No. 19 Florida State, No. 24 Louisville, and No. 42 Syracuse. Duke’s Q1 losses are on the road to No. 12 Virginia Tech, on a neutral court to No. 1 Gonzaga, and at home to No. 7 North Carolina.

Tennessee really has no bad losses, and the Vols’ best is a neutral-site win over No. 1 and a home win over No. 5. The LSU game would have been a “good” road win, but alas.

Duke has a home loss, but it’s to a No. 7 team. It’s best includes a road win over No. 2, a neutral-site win over No. 5, and a home-win over No. 2. That road win over No. 2 Virginia is probably the difference.

Can Tennessee jump Duke this weekend?

All that said, I wonder if Duke falls below Tennessee even if the Vols beat Auburn and the Blue Devils lose at No. 7 North Carolina this weekend. For them, it’s not a bad loss, but it is another loss. And for the Vols, it wouldn’t be the best win, but it would be a good one. This is where I should put my opinion, but I really have no clue. Regardless, they’ll almost certainly stay ahead of the Vols if they win this weekend, so I’m rooting hard for North Carolina.

Although it’s a legitimate question, I’m not all that concerned about the possibility of the Tar Heels actually jumping the Vols if they beat Duke Saturday. If they win, their Q1 resume would include a win over No. 1 Gonzaga, but it’s a win at home. Their best win would actually be the road victory over Duke. They’ve played No. 2 Virginia, No. 5 Kentucky, and No. 9 Michigan, but they lost all three of those games. The argument would be that Duke swept Virginia and UNC swept Duke, but I just think their overall resume is too far behind the Vols’ to jump Tennessee in one weekend, assuming Tennessee wins.

This weekend, what’s good for the Heels is good for the Vols.

The Tennessee Vols improved their Quadrant 1 record to 8-3 with an impressive 71-54 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs last night in Thompson-Boling Arena.

The Volunteers were a little sloppier with the ball than usual, but they won decisively in both offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage, and they achieved an important stalemate on the offensive glass.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

We noted in our four-factors preview of this game that both teams were highly-ranked in effective field goal percentage but that Tennessee’s defense would likely have more of an impact on the Bulldogs’ offense than vice versa.

Both teams shot about the same percentage from three (Tennessee 26.1% on 6-23; Mississippi State 25% on 4-16), but the Vols dominated from the field. While shooting 26-61 for 42.6%, Tennessee held the Bulldogs to 19-57 for 33.3%. Tennessee’s season average from the field is 50%, while Mississippi State’s is 46.9%, so the Vols were a little off on offense themselves but did extremely well on defense. They’re now 21st in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

It was a strong showing in the shooting and shooting defense departments last night for the good guys.

Turnover Percentage

As we expected, Tennessee did get plenty of freebies courtesy of a generous Mississippi State squad, but the Vols were pretty sloppy protecting the ball themselves last night, and it was mostly their own fault.

The Bulldogs gave up 15 turnovers, slightly more than their average of 13.4, but the Vols were all too happy to return the favor. They gave up 17 turnovers, significantly more than their average of 11.2.

It wasn’t the best night for Tennessee in this category, but it didn’t matter.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

It seems to be a recurring theme that opponents have an advantage on paper over the Vols in offensive rebounding, but that Tennessee makes sure it doesn’t happen when the game is played. The Bulldogs are a really good offensive rebounding team (No. 23 in KenPom), and Tennessee’s season-long numbers at preventing teams from racking up the o-boards are terrible (they’re No. 248).

And yet, the rebounding game last night was essentially a stalemate. The Bulldogs had only one more offensive rebound than Tennessee (16-15), and the Vols had 29 defensive boards to Mississippi State’s 24.

Turning a disadvantage in this category into a stalemate should be considered a resounding victory for the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

The numbers suggested an even contest in this category with both teams getting essentially their season averages for trips to the line. Tennessee shot 22 free attempts (slightly above their average of 20.55), while the Bulldogs shot 17 (slightly below their average of 19.21).

Call this a win for the Volunteers, although it didn’t really appear to be much of a factor either way.

Tennessee’s recent renewed focus on shooting and rebounding defense has been paying dividends lately, and both were key to the dominating victory on Senior Night.

We’ve said it plenty of times this year: with the exception of seven seed UConn in 2014, every national champion of the KenPom era has had a Top 20 offense and defense (original story from the SB Nation Villanova blog last February). In the last week of the regular season, seven teams hit that criteria: Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, Michigan, and Kentucky.

The Vols don’t have a Top 20 defense, haven’t for most of the season, and plunged into the 50’s after the loss at Kentucky.

After last night’s 71-54 win over Mississippi State? The defense still isn’t Top 20.

But it is 21st.

It started with a strong defensive performance against Vanderbilt; the offense didn’t sing in a 58-46 win, but the Commodores shot 32.1% from the floor. Still, that was Vandy, winless in SEC play. Then the Vols lost at LSU in overtime; the Tigers were without Tremont Waters, which makes it hard to judge, and though they only shot 38.5% from the floor, they got to the free throw line 700 31 times. Then Ole Miss buried a ton of tough threes, hitting 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the arc in another close game.

The defense was better, but it was tough to tell. But the last two games, against two of the best teams Tennessee has played all year? Kentucky shot 31.8%, their lowest total of the year. Second-lowest: 39.1% against Kansas. Mississippi State shot 33.3%, their second-lowest total of the year (31.1% at Rupp).

Via Sports-Reference, In the first 25 games of the season, the Vols allowed 39.7% from the floor and 33.4% from the arc. In the last five games – four against offenses rating in the Top 35 in KenPom – the Vols have allowed 35.7% from the floor and 31.1% from the arc.

And here’s what’s pushing Tennessee over the top. You know how all year we’ve been saying the Vols traded creating turnovers in 2018 for blocked shots in 2019 (still a thing they’re great at, ninth nationally in shot-blocking percentage and third in shot-blocking percentage allowed)? In the last two games, Kentucky turned it over 16 times with eight Tennessee steals, then Mississippi State gave it away 17 times with a dozen (!) Tennessee steals, a season high.

If there was a switch, apparently Rupp Arena flipped it, and the rematch taped it to the on position. Kentucky was playing without Reid Travis, to be fair, so I know we can’t hang everything on beating a team by 19 that beat us by 17. But Mississippi State is a five seed in the Bracket Matrix…and the Vols obliterated them.

Nevermind any concern about the Vols peaking too soon. This is their best basketball, right on time.