Gameday on Rocky Top

Since the SEC expanded in 2012-13 and went to an 18-game schedule, here are your champions:

• 2013: Florida wins at 14-4, three others at 12-6
• 2014: Florida goes undefeated at 18-0, two others 12-6
• 2015: Kentucky goes undefeated at 18-0, Arkansas 13-5
• 2016: Texas A&M and Kentucky split at 13-5
• 2017: Kentucky wins at 16-2, Florida 14-4
• 2018: Tennessee and Auburn split at 13-5

We’ve never seen three teams win at least 14 games, which is where things sit right now. If Kentucky beats Florida on Saturday, that’s three teams with at least 15 wins. And if the Vols win at Auburn and LSU beats 0-17 Vanderbilt (which we’ve also never seen on the other end of the spectrum), the league title will be shared at 16-2.

There are plenty of questions about Will Wade at the moment, including whether the LSU administration wants the image of him on a ladder cutting down nets if/when the Tigers beat Vanderbilt Saturday night. As the Vols can only control the Vols, we’ll focus on Auburn and a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But it’s worth pointing out how amazing a 16-2 run through the SEC would be, even if it ends with an unprecedented tie for the title.

What’s the Simplest Path to a No. 1 Seed?

In Thursday’s Bracket Matrix, Virginia and Duke are unanimous No. 1 seeds in the 90 brackets in the pool; Gonzaga is just behind with an average seed of 1.07. And Tennessee is currently the fourth No. 1 seed with an average seed of 1.38, a good bit ahead of Kentucky (1.81) and North Carolina (1.83).

If Tennessee wins at Auburn and Duke wins at Chapel Hill, that could do it. There are various thoughts on if you want Duke or Carolina to prevail, but if we’re looking for simplicity, that includes giving up on the notion that Tennessee could be seeded higher than both Duke and UNC and back atop the Louisville region. A North Carolina win on Saturday could introduce that possibility, giving both Duke and Carolina five losses to Tennessee’s three. But given Tennessee’s history with the selection committee and the names on the front of the jersey, I’m not sure I like those odds. Could the selection committee put three ACC teams on the top line? Probably not, but when a program with zero Final Fours under its belt is the alternative, it makes me nervous.

In the last three years, the average No. 1 seed has 4.67 losses on Selection Sunday. So a Tennessee team at 28-3 (16-2), if it goes through Auburn, should feel pretty good about its chances heading to the SEC Tournament. But we also have a bit of institutional memory here: in 2008 the Vols went to the SEC Tournament at 28-3 (14-2), lost by a point in the semifinals post-tornado, and were given a No. 2 seed despite being No. 1 in RPI. It’s one of the better what-if’s in recent Tennessee history: that team’s path to the Final Four went through a criminally under-seeded Butler team in the second round, then ran into a match-up nightmare in the Sweet 16 against No. 3 Louisville. Had the Vols earned the final No. 1 seed instead of Kansas (who, to their credit, ultimately won it all), we could have seen Chris Lofton vs Steph Curry in the Elite Eight.

But we’ve seen a 28-3 Tennessee team that spent time at No. 1 in the regular season get denied on Selection Sunday. In this decade, six major conference teams failed to earn a No. 1 seed despite having less than five losses:

• 2012 Missouri (30-4) – lost to No. 15 Norfolk State in Round One
• 2014 Villanova (28-4) – lost to No. 7 UConn in Round Two
• 2015 Virginia (29-3) – lost to No. 7 Michigan State in Round Two
• 2015 Arizona (31-3) – lost to No. 1 Wisconsin in Elite Eight
• 2017 UCLA (29-4) – lost to No. 2 Kentucky in Sweet 16
• 2017 Arizona (30-4) lost to No. 11 Xavier in Sweet 16

So the committee could say, “See, we got it right, none of those teams made the Final Four (and only one made the Elite Eight).” This is a disgruntled list you don’t want to be on, though the last three times it happened to teams from a diminished Pac-12. If the Vols do fall to No. 2 even after a win at Auburn, feeling sorry for yourself is a recipe for disaster.

But the Vols have the Bracket Matrix, NET, and Torvik’s predictive bracketology all on their side at the moment. Nothing is certain, but you can make a really good argument for the Vols as the favorite to earn that final No. 1 seed.

But all of those roads go through Auburn.

On The Plains

Auburn rallied from down 11 at halftime to win at Alabama on Tuesday. I would imagine sharing the floor with their in-state brethren offered some support, but tomorrow will be the first game back at Auburn since tornadoes took 23 lives in the area. It’s also senior day for Bryce Brown; there will be emotions of all kinds in the building.

The Tigers are 21-9 (10-7), but other than a three-point loss at South Carolina, every defeat is to a Top 50 team in KenPom. Their only losses at home are to Kentucky (82-80) and Ole Miss (60-55). The Rebels took the invitation to launch threes and went 13-of-33 (39.4%) while Auburn hit just 5-of-20 (25%).

Austin Wiley missed the last three games with a leg injury; Pearl referred to him as “doubtful, but not out” yesterday. Without him this is a much smaller team. But Chuma Okeke can still bang, and this team beat the Vols in Knoxville last year solely on the strength of offensive rebounds in a stat line that’s still hard to believe: 22 offensive rebounds, 24 defensive rebounds.

Teams that have wanted to play fast with Tennessee have often regretted it (Louisville, Memphis, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, etc.). The Tigers have the best-of-Pearl quality of controlled chaos: third in the league in turnovers allowed, third in creating turnovers. Statistically they aren’t crashing the offensive glass as hard this year, but the memories of last season will linger until the Vols prove otherwise.

But it’s the willingness to shoot and let shoot that’s most striking about this team: in SEC play, almost half of Auburn’s field goal attempts are from three (49.2%). And 43.6% of opponent attempts are from three.

One thing about this: it’s been less about Auburn’s makes than the opponent’s when it comes to wins and losses. When the opposition shoots less than 33.3% from the arc, Auburn is 11-1, its only loss to Duke. When teams hit at least 33.3% from three, Auburn is 10-8.

So, do you take the bait? Only seven teams have taken less than 20 threes against the Tigers this year. The Vols have taken less than 20 threes 15 times this year. Tennessee is 333rd nationally in the percentage of points they get from the arc. It could be a poise game in an emotionally charged environment.

Much is on the line. The Vols and Tigers will go first (Noon, ESPN), with Duke and Carolina at 6:00 PM and LSU hosting Vanderbilt at 8:30 PM. Tennessee has never won back-to-back SEC Championships. I think this team has plenty of history left.

Go Vols.

No. 4 Tennessee (NET Rankings) travels to Auburn to take on the No. 19 Tigers tomorrow at noon on ESPN. It’s another opportunity for the Vols to get one of those all-important Quadrant 1 wins.

Here’s a look at the teams’ respective four factors numbers. Spoiler: Every category but one looks even when you put offense versus defense, but Tennessee appears to have an advantage on both ends of the floor in shooting percentage. They need to make sure they outshoot Auburn and keep everything else close to a tie.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.4 (No. 22) (down from 55.6 (No. 16))
• Auburn 53.9 (No. 51)

Prior opponents:

• Mississippi State 54.6 (No. 36)
• Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)
• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: Tennessee’s recent focus on defense has had some marginal negative impact on its offensive effective field goal percentage, but it’s still really, really good. Auburn, meanwhile, is not much different from Tennessee’s last three opponents in this category, meaning they’re not as good as the Vols, but they are still good.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.8 (No. 23) (down from 15.6 (No. 20))
• Auburn 18.3 (No. 151)

Prior opponents:

• Mississippi State 19.1 (No. 220)
• Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)
• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: Different game, same story. Tennessee protects the ball, and its opponent does not.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 31.2 (No. 90) (up from 30.9 (No. 94))
• Auburn 33.5 (No. 39)

Prior opponents:

• Mississippi State 34.6 (No. 23)
• Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)
• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: Tennessee is trending in the right direction in OR%, but it’s still not up to the level of its recent competition. Auburn is good at this, but not as good as either Kentucky or LSU. They’re essentially right in between Mississippi State and Ole Miss.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 33.9 (No. 159) (down from 34.1 (No. 155))
• Auburn 30.9 (No. 245)

Prior opponents:

• Mississippi State 33.0 (No. 188)
• Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)
• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: Good news. Auburn is allergic to the free throw line. They’re worse at getting there than any of the Vols’ last five opponents.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.4 (No. 22), while Auburn’s defense against that is 50.8 (No. 174).

When Auburn has the ball

The Tigers’ shooting offense is 53.9 (No. 51), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.3 (No. 22).

Conclusions

Auburn’s defense shouldn’t be much of an impediment to Tennessee’s effective field goal percentage, so it will basically just be up to the Vols’ players to get good shots and then hit them. Expect the Vols to shoot well. On the other side of the ball, Auburn’s no slouch in this category, but Tennessee’s defense is equipped to make things more difficult for them than usual.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.8 (No. 23), which is really, really good. But Auburn is the best team in the nation at forcing turnovers (25.3, No. 1).

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn’s turnover % is not especially good at 18.3 (No. 151), but neither is Tennessee’s turnover defense, which is 18.9 (No. 153).

Conclusions

This is strength-on-strength when Tennessee has the ball and weakness-on-weakness when Auburn has it. Expect the Vols to have a few more turnovers than usual (11.2 average) and Auburn to have about their average of 12.8.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 31.2 (No. 90), while Auburn’s defense in that category is 32.9 (No. 331). This is the biggest advantage for the Vols on offense.

When Auburn has the ball

The Tigers’ OR% is 33.5 (No. 39), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 30.0 (No. 256). And again, this is the biggest advantage of the game for Tennessee’s opponent tomorrow.

Conclusions

Tennessee should have its way on the offensive board tomorrow, but Auburn should do the same on its own end. Tennessee averages 10.10 o-rebounds per game while Auburn averages 12.53. Expect both to get more.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 33.9 (No. 159), while Auburn’s defense against that is 37.7 (No. 286).

When Auburn has the ball

The Tigers’ FT Rate is 30.9 (No. 245), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 34.3 (No. 220).

Conclusions

To me, this looks like we should expect Tennessee to earn a few more trips to the free throw line than usual (20.4) and Auburn to get somewhere around its average of 19.3. Probably not a deciding factor.

Summary and Score Prediction

The numbers suggest that these two teams are close enough to equal in turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw attempts to call this an even matchup. If either team tips the scales on any of those three categories, it could decide the game.

Tennessee does seem to have a real advantage in effective field goal percentage, though. The Vols are marginally better shooting the ball than Auburn, plus the Vols’ defense should present more of a problem to Auburn’s offense than vice versa. I expect the Vols to outshoot the Tigers. If they do that and also maintain equilibrium in the other categories, they should come away with the victory. But the game is close enough on paper that if they don’t do both of those things, Auburn will likely win.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Keep the game even in turnovers, offensive rebounding, and free throw rate.
2. Outshoot the Tigers.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 54% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 76, Auburn 75.

Go Vols.

Here’s the latest info from the team sheets, updated through the games on Tuesday night and sorted by NET Rankings:

Tennessee is still in the Top 4 despite having their Quadrant 1 win over Mississippi State Tuesday negated by the win at Texas A&M falling from Q1 to Q2 thanks to the Aggies’ loss to South Carolina Tuesday.

Comparing Tennessee’s and Duke’s Q1 resumes

The main curiosity in the Top 4 is why Duke remains ahead of the Vols with a worse overall record and a Q2 loss to boot. Looking at the detail of each team’s Q1 record probably provides the answer.

Tennessee has home wins over No. 5 Kentucky and No. 23 Mississippi State, neutral site wins over No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 24 Louisville, and road wins over No. 34 Florida, No. 37 Ole Miss, and No. 51 Memphis. Their Q1 losses are on the road to No. 5 Kentucky and No. 13 LSU (in overtime), and on a neutral court to No. 18 Kansas (also in overtime).

Duke has only 1 Q1 home win, but it is against No. 2 Virginia. The Blue Devils have neutral site wins over No. 5 Kentucky, No. 10 Texas Tech, and No. 20 Auburn, and they have road wins over No. 2 Virginia, No. 19 Florida State, No. 24 Louisville, and No. 42 Syracuse. Duke’s Q1 losses are on the road to No. 12 Virginia Tech, on a neutral court to No. 1 Gonzaga, and at home to No. 7 North Carolina.

Tennessee really has no bad losses, and the Vols’ best is a neutral-site win over No. 1 and a home win over No. 5. The LSU game would have been a “good” road win, but alas.

Duke has a home loss, but it’s to a No. 7 team. It’s best includes a road win over No. 2, a neutral-site win over No. 5, and a home-win over No. 2. That road win over No. 2 Virginia is probably the difference.

Can Tennessee jump Duke this weekend?

All that said, I wonder if Duke falls below Tennessee even if the Vols beat Auburn and the Blue Devils lose at No. 7 North Carolina this weekend. For them, it’s not a bad loss, but it is another loss. And for the Vols, it wouldn’t be the best win, but it would be a good one. This is where I should put my opinion, but I really have no clue. Regardless, they’ll almost certainly stay ahead of the Vols if they win this weekend, so I’m rooting hard for North Carolina.

Although it’s a legitimate question, I’m not all that concerned about the possibility of the Tar Heels actually jumping the Vols if they beat Duke Saturday. If they win, their Q1 resume would include a win over No. 1 Gonzaga, but it’s a win at home. Their best win would actually be the road victory over Duke. They’ve played No. 2 Virginia, No. 5 Kentucky, and No. 9 Michigan, but they lost all three of those games. The argument would be that Duke swept Virginia and UNC swept Duke, but I just think their overall resume is too far behind the Vols’ to jump Tennessee in one weekend, assuming Tennessee wins.

This weekend, what’s good for the Heels is good for the Vols.

The Tennessee Vols improved their Quadrant 1 record to 8-3 with an impressive 71-54 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs last night in Thompson-Boling Arena.

The Volunteers were a little sloppier with the ball than usual, but they won decisively in both offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage, and they achieved an important stalemate on the offensive glass.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

We noted in our four-factors preview of this game that both teams were highly-ranked in effective field goal percentage but that Tennessee’s defense would likely have more of an impact on the Bulldogs’ offense than vice versa.

Both teams shot about the same percentage from three (Tennessee 26.1% on 6-23; Mississippi State 25% on 4-16), but the Vols dominated from the field. While shooting 26-61 for 42.6%, Tennessee held the Bulldogs to 19-57 for 33.3%. Tennessee’s season average from the field is 50%, while Mississippi State’s is 46.9%, so the Vols were a little off on offense themselves but did extremely well on defense. They’re now 21st in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

It was a strong showing in the shooting and shooting defense departments last night for the good guys.

Turnover Percentage

As we expected, Tennessee did get plenty of freebies courtesy of a generous Mississippi State squad, but the Vols were pretty sloppy protecting the ball themselves last night, and it was mostly their own fault.

The Bulldogs gave up 15 turnovers, slightly more than their average of 13.4, but the Vols were all too happy to return the favor. They gave up 17 turnovers, significantly more than their average of 11.2.

It wasn’t the best night for Tennessee in this category, but it didn’t matter.

Offensive Rebounding Percentage

It seems to be a recurring theme that opponents have an advantage on paper over the Vols in offensive rebounding, but that Tennessee makes sure it doesn’t happen when the game is played. The Bulldogs are a really good offensive rebounding team (No. 23 in KenPom), and Tennessee’s season-long numbers at preventing teams from racking up the o-boards are terrible (they’re No. 248).

And yet, the rebounding game last night was essentially a stalemate. The Bulldogs had only one more offensive rebound than Tennessee (16-15), and the Vols had 29 defensive boards to Mississippi State’s 24.

Turning a disadvantage in this category into a stalemate should be considered a resounding victory for the Vols.

Free Throw Rate

The numbers suggested an even contest in this category with both teams getting essentially their season averages for trips to the line. Tennessee shot 22 free attempts (slightly above their average of 20.55), while the Bulldogs shot 17 (slightly below their average of 19.21).

Call this a win for the Volunteers, although it didn’t really appear to be much of a factor either way.

Tennessee’s recent renewed focus on shooting and rebounding defense has been paying dividends lately, and both were key to the dominating victory on Senior Night.

We’ve said it plenty of times this year: with the exception of seven seed UConn in 2014, every national champion of the KenPom era has had a Top 20 offense and defense (original story from the SB Nation Villanova blog last February). In the last week of the regular season, seven teams hit that criteria: Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, Michigan, and Kentucky.

The Vols don’t have a Top 20 defense, haven’t for most of the season, and plunged into the 50’s after the loss at Kentucky.

After last night’s 71-54 win over Mississippi State? The defense still isn’t Top 20.

But it is 21st.

It started with a strong defensive performance against Vanderbilt; the offense didn’t sing in a 58-46 win, but the Commodores shot 32.1% from the floor. Still, that was Vandy, winless in SEC play. Then the Vols lost at LSU in overtime; the Tigers were without Tremont Waters, which makes it hard to judge, and though they only shot 38.5% from the floor, they got to the free throw line 700 31 times. Then Ole Miss buried a ton of tough threes, hitting 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the arc in another close game.

The defense was better, but it was tough to tell. But the last two games, against two of the best teams Tennessee has played all year? Kentucky shot 31.8%, their lowest total of the year. Second-lowest: 39.1% against Kansas. Mississippi State shot 33.3%, their second-lowest total of the year (31.1% at Rupp).

Via Sports-Reference, In the first 25 games of the season, the Vols allowed 39.7% from the floor and 33.4% from the arc. In the last five games – four against offenses rating in the Top 35 in KenPom – the Vols have allowed 35.7% from the floor and 31.1% from the arc.

And here’s what’s pushing Tennessee over the top. You know how all year we’ve been saying the Vols traded creating turnovers in 2018 for blocked shots in 2019 (still a thing they’re great at, ninth nationally in shot-blocking percentage and third in shot-blocking percentage allowed)? In the last two games, Kentucky turned it over 16 times with eight Tennessee steals, then Mississippi State gave it away 17 times with a dozen (!) Tennessee steals, a season high.

If there was a switch, apparently Rupp Arena flipped it, and the rematch taped it to the on position. Kentucky was playing without Reid Travis, to be fair, so I know we can’t hang everything on beating a team by 19 that beat us by 17. But Mississippi State is a five seed in the Bracket Matrix…and the Vols obliterated them.

Nevermind any concern about the Vols peaking too soon. This is their best basketball, right on time.

No. 5 Tennessee looks for another Quadrant 1 win tonight as Mississippi State comes to Thompson-Boling. It’s Senior Night, and the game tips at 9:00 ET and is televised on the SEC Network.

Here are the teams’ respective four factors numbers.

Four Factors: Straight-Up

Effective FG%

• Tennessee 55.6 (No. 16) (holding steady at 55.9 (No. 16))
• Mississippi State 54.6 (No. 36)

Prior opponents:

• Kentucky 53.6 (No. 59)
• Ole Miss 53.5 (No. 64)
• LSU: 52.7 (No. 93)
• Vanderbilt: 50.3 (No. 198)
• Kentucky: 52.8 (No. 93)

Conclusions: The Bulldogs have one of the best shooting offenses we’ve seen recently, which is saying something.

Turnover %

• Tennessee 15.6 (No. 20) (up from 15.9 (No. 24))
• Mississippi State 19.1 (No. 220)

Prior opponents:

• Kentucky 18.7 (No. 185)
• Ole Miss 18.7 (No. 172)
• LSU 19.0 (No. 196)
• Vanderbilt: 19.9 (No. 255)
• Kentucky: 18.5 (No. 158)

Conclusions: Oooh, these guys come bearing gifts! We like gifts.

Offensive Rebound %

• Tennessee 30.9 (No. 94) (down from 31.3 (No. 86))
• Mississippi State 34.6 (No. 23)

Prior opponents:

• Kentucky 37.9 (No. 4)
• Ole Miss 31.9 (No. 64)
• LSU 37.4 (No. 6)
• Vanderbilt: 28.6 (No. 178)
• Kentucky: 38.3 (No. 3)

Conclusions: The Bulldogs are better than the Vols at grabbing their own misses, but they’re not as good as either Kentucky or LSU in that department.

Free Throw Rate

• Tennessee 34.1 (No. 155) (down from 34.6 (No. 141))
• Mississippi State 33.0 (No. 188)

Prior opponents:

• Kentucky 42.2 (No. 14)
• Ole Miss 32.8 (No. 200)
• LSU 39.8 (No. 29)
• Vanderbilt: 44.8 (No. 7)
• Kentucky: 41 (No. 22)

Conclusions: This could be a welcome reprieve for the Vols, as the Bulldogs aren’t especially good at getting to the free throw line.

Those are the straight-up comparisons of the teams’ respective averages in the four factors, but what about the fact that those numbers are impacted in any given game by the opponent?

Four Factors: Opponent impact

Effective FG%

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s EFG% is 55.6 (No. 16), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 50.1 (No. 145).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ shooting offense is 54.6 (No. 36), while Tennessee’s shooting defense is 46.6 (No. 23).

Conclusions

The hope here is that Tennessee will shoot about as well as it usually does and that Tennessee’s defense will impede the Bulldogs more than they’ll impede us.

Turnover %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s turnover % is 15.6 (No. 20), while the Bulldogs’ turnover defense is 20.0 (No. 92).

When Mississippi State has the ball

Mississippi State’s turnover % is 19.1 (No. 220), but Tennessee’s turnover defense is only marginally better, at 18.7 (No. 166).

Conclusions

The Vols should have an advantage in the turnovers category. They generally protect the ball well and shouldn’t be troubled too much by the defense. On the other side of the ball, they don’t create many turnovers, but should get plenty of freebies anyway.

Offensive Rebounding %

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s OR% is 30.9 (No. 94), while Mississippi State’s defense in that category is 29.4 (No. 232).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ OR% is 34.6 (No. 23), while the Vols’ defense in that category is 29.8 (No. 248). As usual, this is the biggest advantage of the game for Tennessee’s opponent tonight.

Conclusions

Tennessee should be able to get its share of offensive rebounds, but the biggest threat tonight appears to be Mississippi State on the offensive boards. If the Vols don’t box out and rebound as a defense, this could spell trouble. The Bulldogs shoot very well and could do some real damage against a defense scattered by a missed shot.

Free Throw Rate

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee’s FT Rate is 34.1 (No. 155), while Mississippi State’s defense against that is 31.7 (No. 145).

When Mississippi State has the ball

The Bulldogs’ FT Rate is 33.0 (No. 188), while Tennessee’s defense against that is 34.2 (No. 216).

Conclusions

To me, this looks essentially like a stalemate, so I expect both teams to get about their average trips to the free throw line (20.55 for the Vols and 19.21 for the Bulldogs).

Summary and Score Prediction

Both teams sport high-powered, efficient-shooting offenses, but the Vols’ shooting defense should have more of an impact on the Bulldogs than vice versa. Tennessee also has an advantage in protecting the ball.

The danger for the Vols comes after Mississippi State misses shots. The Bulldogs are good at getting offensive rebounds, and Tennessee’s not especially well-equipped to keep them from doing it. Plus, I wonder if it’s more difficult to defend against good shooting teams after they get offensive rebounds when the defense is out of position.

The goals for the Vols:

1. Make the most of their advantage in efficient shooting percentage.
2. Box out. Get the rebound.
3. When the Bulldogs get an offensive rebound, get back into proper defensive position quickly.

KenPom gives Tennessee a 78% chance of winning this one and puts the score at Tennessee 79, Mississippi State 71.

Go Vols.

Let’s return to a question we posed before the Kentucky game: would you rather be the one seed in Kansas City, or the two seed in Louisville?

I’m not worried about the difference between playing a 15 or 16 seed, or even the potential quality of opponent in the Sweet 16. If Tennessee is trying to make its first Final Four and win the national championship, you want the easiest path to get there. And while we’ll break down the bracket as soon as it’s released like everyone else, in the advanced stats world, three teams have separated themselves at the top: Virginia, and the full-strength versions of Gonzaga and Duke.

They’re 1-2-3 everywhere you look, with the exception of the AP and Coaches Polls. North Carolina is third in both of those, set for a rematch with probably-full-strength #4 Duke on Saturday. The head-to-head police applaud the Tar Heels being ranked above the Blue Devils for now. We’ll see if that holds.

But everywhere else – Bracket Matrix, KenPom, NET, and Bart Torvik’s predictive bracketology – Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke are 1-2-3 in some order.

In KenPom, those three teams are somewhere between a 6-8 point favorite against Tennessee on a neutral floor. The Vols are currently seventh in KenPom, but within one possession of the other three teams in front of them (and the next four behind them). When we get closer to Selection Sunday, we can argue for Tennessee’s resume – which is outstanding, by the way, and with the win over Kentucky now includes another elite victory to go with the two overtime losses and Rupp Arena bullet point. Tennessee deserves to be ranked higher than they are right now, and I can make a plenty good argument that they deserve that fourth one seed.

But if we’re talking about ratings instead of rankings? Virginia and full-strength Gonzaga and Duke have separated themselves from the field. Those are the only three teams that would be more than a push against Tennessee. If we’re trying to survive and advance? I’d like to see those three teams in the Final Four, and not before. And the best way to do that is to grab that last one seed.

I think Tennessee’s odds of getting to Minneapolis are higher as the one seed in Kansas City than the two seed with a short drive to Louisville, if that drive ends with facing Virginia or Duke in the Elite Eight. Let’s be clear: we’re trying to win the national championship, which could very well mean going through those teams eventually. But when we’re also trying to make the Final Four for the first time ever? Let’s save it for Minneapolis.

The good news for Tennessee: I think they control their own destiny for that last one seed.

A Rick Barnes vs Ben Howland Showdown of Old

Fun fact: Barnes beat the Russell Westbrook/Kevin Love UCLA team at Texas.

It took Howland an extra year to get here, but Mississippi State is a six seed and climbing in the latest Bracket Matrix. The Bulldogs started 12-1 with an impressive set of non-conference wins (St. Mary’s, Clemson, Cincinnati, and the last team to beat Wofford on December 19). Then they opened conference play with an overtime loss to South Carolina and a four point loss to an Ole Miss team we still weren’t sure of. Since then they’ve gone 9-5, including two losses to Kentucky and an overtime loss to LSU. They ripped off five straight wins over lower-tier SEC foes before falling at Auburn 80-75 on Saturday. Their most impressive road win is at Ole Miss (who returned the favor in Starkville), but they lost at South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, and Auburn.

Tennessee blew out this team in late February last season on the road behind 24 points from Admiral Schofield, then got a much tougher challenge in the SEC Tournament before prevailing 62-59.

This is another good offensive team, led by Quindary Weatherspoon and fueled by what Lamar Peters gives them from the point. 6’10” Aric Holman is back and joined by 6’10” freshman Reggie Perry, who has been great on the offensive glass. The Bulldogs as a team are 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage and 36th in effective field goal percentage, shooting it well inside and outside the arc.

They also lead the league in blocks and steals, but have been victimized by the three ball (36.6% allowed, 12th worst in the league). When they create chaos, they win: 15-2 when they force at least 13 turnovers (with losses to LSU and Kentucky), 6-6 when they don’t.

The Vols will need to be clean, and they’ll need to be good defensively again. This will be the fourth Top 20 offense the Vols have faced this season, and Auburn will make five on Saturday. For Tennessee to earn that last one seed, the defense we saw against Kentucky must become the rule.

Just like they drew it up for a critical final week battle: 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network. Go Vols.

Here’s our list of games worth watching this week, specifically curated for fans of the Tennessee Volunteers.

Monday

Tonight we’re rooting for Syracuse over Virginia.

Tuesday

The first order of business Tuesday is the Vols taking care of business at home against Mississippi State at 9:00 on the SEC Network.

But we’re also rooting for Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Kentucky to all lose. Kansas can win.

Wednesday

On Wednesday, we want Florida to beat LSU.

Thursday

Root for SMU to upset Houston Thursday night.

Full college basketball TV schedule

And here is the full searchable college basketball TV schedule for this week:

After adding two more Quadrant 1 wins to their resume this past week, the Tennessee Volunteers moved from No. 7 to No. 4 in the all-important NET Rankings.

Here’s the summary version of the team sheets for the Top 8 teams in the most current NET Rankings (games through Saturday, March 2, 2019)

Comparing to last week, Tennessee’s Q1 record changed from 5-3 to 7-3. The only other team in the current Top 8 to improve its Q1 record was UNC, which went from 7-5 to 8-5 by beating Clemson.

Meanwhile, Kentucky took another Q1 loss and went from 9-3 to 9-4 (hi!). Duke and Houston also each took another Q1 loss, the Blue Devils going from 8-2 to 8-3 and Houston going from 4-1 to 4-2. Michigan State took a double hit, going from 11-3 to 10-4, meaning they not only lost to Indiana, they lost a Q1 win to Q2 due to Iowa losing the NET Ranking that used to qualify it as a Q1 team.

Gonzaga and Virginia both kept the same Q1 record they had last week.

That’s a pretty good week for Tennessee. They can’t be that far behind Duke, which has one more Q1 win but also one Q2 loss to the Vols’ none. Blame the efficiency numbers and the computers that love them there.

Opportunities moving forward

Tennessee still has two additional Q1 opportunities to go in the remainder of the regular season. They host Mississippi State tomorrow and travel to Auburn Saturday.

Virginia is the only other team in the current Top 8 that has two more regular-season Q1 opportunities (Louisville and at Syracuse). Go Cards and Orange.

Kentucky has one left (at Ole Miss), Houston has one left (at Cincinnati), and Duke and North Carolina play each other. Go Heels.

Gonzaga is done for the regular season already, and the Bulldogs just have to hope that everyone else blows their opportunities this week. The only thing that can explain them being ahead of Virginia right now is that they’ve played more games, and now that they’re done, their hold on the No. 1 spot is in jeopardy.

Virginia could finish with an 11-2 (or 11-4) Q1 record. Duke and Tennessee could both finish 9-3. You still have the conference tournaments, of course, but you would have to think that all three of those records would beat out Gonzaga’s regular-season 4-2.

Meanwhile, the Bracket Matrix still has Tennessee as the first No. 2 seed, behind Kentucky. I expect that to change once everybody updates.

The Vols still need to take care of business this week against Mississippi State and Auburn, but they have a real opportunity in front of them. And if Virginia stumbles and UNC beats Duke, things could get really interesting in the conference tournaments.