Category Archives: Football

Tennessee Vols depth chart for West Virginia

Jeremy Pruitt has released his first depth chart, but it’s pretty much just a codification of continuing mysteries:

Quarterback

  1. Jarrett Guarantano / Keller Chryst
  3. Will McBride
  4. JT Shrout

Running back

  1. Tim Jordan / Ty Chandler / Madre London
  4. Jeremy Banks

Wide receiver

  1. Josh Palmer / Jauan Jennings

Wide receiver

  1. Marquez Callaway
  2. Tyler Byrd
  3. Cedric Tillman

Wide receiver

  1. Brandon Johnson
  2. Jordan Murphy

Tight end

  1. Dominick Wood-Anderson / Eli Wolf / Austin Pope

Left tackle

  1. Trey Smith
  2. Nathan Niehaus

Left guard

  1. Jahmir Johnson / Riley Locklear
  3. K’Rojhn Calbert

Center

  1. Brandon Kennedy
  2. Ryan Johnson

Right guard

  1. Ryan Johnson / Jerome Carvin
  3. Riley Locklear

Right tackle

  1. Drew Richmond / Marcus Tatum / Chance Hall

Defensive end

  1. Kyle Phillips
  2. Paul Bain

Defensive end

  1. Alexis Johnson
  2. Kingston Harris

Nose tackle

  1. Shy Tuttle
  2. Emmit Gooden

Outside linebacker – JACK

  1. Jonathan Kongbo
  2. Deandre Johnson

Outside linebacker – SAM

  1. Darrell Taylor
  2. Austin Smith
  3. Jordan Allen

Inside linebacker – MIKE

  1. Daniel Bituli
  2. Will Ignont

Inside linebacker – WILL

  1. Darrin Kirkland Jr. / Quart’e Sapp
  3. Dillon Bates

Cornerback

  1. Alontae Taylor / Bryce Thompson
  2. Carlin Fils-aime

Cornerback

  1. Baylen Buchanan
  2. Marquill Osborne
  3. D.J. Henderson

Safety

  1. Nigel Warrior
  2. Shawn Shamburger
  3. Todd Kelly Jr.

Safety

  1. Micah Abernathy
  2. Trevon Flowers
  3. Theo Jackson

Kicker

  1. Brent Cimaglia
  2. Laszlo Toser

Punter

  1. Joe Doyle / Paxton Brooks

Long snapper

  1. Riley Lovingood / Elijah Medford

The Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast: Most expected outcomes for Tennessee-West Virginia

Notes

[00:15:43]
Yeah. I meant “shorter,” not “fewer.” D’oh.

 

 

Transcript

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:02] This is the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast, I’m Joel Hollingsworth. And I’m with Wil Shelton this evening. How are you doing Will.

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:09] I’m doing great. This is the best time of year. How are you.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:12] This IS THE BEST TIME OF YEAR. I’m I’m very well. I wanted to ask you one question What is the last thing that you ate.

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:19] What is the last thing that I ate.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:20] The last thing

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:21] I

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:21] The

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:21] Had I had some frozen grapes about five minutes ago the really good

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:26] You know frozen grapes are really under under appreciated because grapes are good by themselves but you

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:33] Yes

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:34] Freeze those babies. Good stuff.

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:36] Yes they’re very good. I broke it tooth off on a frozen grape once where I had a cavity and I didn’t realize it. So the fact that I still eat them despite a catastrophic event in my mouth about 10 years ago on a frozen grape is the best advertisement I can give. Best endorsement I could give to frozen grapes.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:53] Very good. Are you with the red grape persuasion or the White slash green

 

Will Shelton: [00:01:01] I don’t do the white slash Green. Frozen. I like I prefer the white slash green on the unfrozen grape. But for a good frozen grape you need the red

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:11] Ok.

 

Will Shelton: [00:01:11] Is my

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:12] All right well that’s like just like your opinion man.

 

Will Shelton: [00:01:17] Yeah right

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:19] All right. So vol stuff I wanted to ask. This is going to be a quickie podcast. So I wanted to ask what you thought your most realistic expectation for the upcoming West Virginia game is and if that doesn’t make sense. Let me explain mine real quick. I think that after I looked at the stats that I think the 10 or the nine and a half to ten and a half line is maybe a little bit high. I know that if you’re just looking at stats from last year you got real problems because you know that was last year but I think we’re going to be a little bit better. And I think West Virginia is going to be a little bit better because their stats are based on three games without will Greer. But on balance I think that it’s not going to be that much different or I don’t have a lot of reason to think there’s going to be a lot different. So my stats machine says between three and four OK. So my most realistic expectation for the game is that West Virginia wins by three or four. But I also think that because they’re so powerful on offense and especially in the passing game that if they identify a weakness and exploit it over and over again they could run away with it. So that’s my second most realistic expectation. But because it’s only three or four points. I also think that Tennessee could actually steal a close one too. So my top three in sort of expectations for the game. Least surprising outcomes is that West Virginia wins by 3 or 4 1 2 that they run away with it and three that Tennessee pulls out a close one. So those are my three what what would be your top 1 and what are sort of your backup plans as far as expected outcomes.

 

Will Shelton: [00:03:21] All right. Let me give it to you with a little less data there. The outcome I expect most is we come out of the West Virginia game thinking Tennessee is going to have an opportunity to beat Florida. Whether that is via you know certainly if we beat West Virginia I have no problem thinking we’re going to be Florida. But I expect Tennessee is a good goal for this game state Tennessee to play well enough that we come out of this thing thinking. All right. In a couple of weeks we can give this thing a run for its money against a little lighter competition at home et cetera et cetera. So I think that’s I think that’s number one. I will say on the on the stats front the updated S&P rankings Bill Connelly the SB Nation also have West Virginia down to like four and a half.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:12] Oh, cool.

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:13] That’s a big jump from 10. Tennessee got a boost from guessing here. I know he got a boost. I’m guessing the boost comes from Brandon Kennedy’s insertion as a transfer some of West Virginia loss. Those kinds of things so

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:29] And foot

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:29] That

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:29] And mouth

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:29] Number was

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:30] Disease that’s got to be worth

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:31] Right

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:31] A couple of points.

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:32] Fred right. It’s worth at least two tenths of a point. So you know that is encouraging to me. I said this on the radio on Friday. When you when we try it out there. Hey none of the advanced models like West Virginia as much as the eye test. Let’s remember first of all the eye test loves West Virginia because they’re so much fun to watch. You know like of course we love West like they’re super fun to watch. So yeah they’re naturally going to be overrated in that sense. But if you’re going to throw advance stats in the mix yes advanced stats don’t like West Virginia as much as human polls and the tests do. But advanced stats really hate Tennessee. So you know you have to you have to kind of balances things out because what’s going into those bad stats is all those games last fall that Tennessee played that we did care about the outcome after South Carolina but the computers don’t care that we had moved on from Butch Jones who were more worried about our head coach. They’re using all that data to say hey Tennessee was terrible and all that’s going in the machine. So you got to kind of take both sides of that. So I think I would expect Tennessee to play well enough that we feel good about Florida.

 

Will Shelton: [00:05:41] I would I would still I don’t know if I’m just getting old or what it is but like this is the first year where I’ve still got six days here but I haven’t added on a win like I’ve thought we were 6 and 6 in April. And this is August 26 and I think we’re probably six and 6. So I’ve been about three out of 10 on West Virginia which is to say I think if they play it ten times I think we win three maybe three and a half. And I think you take those you know like that’s that’s thought. I’m happy to know because if you’re taking three and a half that’s essentially saying if we play it three times we win one. So you know I think that’s that’s a good spot for Tennessee to be in. So I would say we can’t we can’t talk ourselves into so much year where we get disappointed with a good performance in this game if it doesn’t end up in victory. But I will say there’s just a nice little you know it will be a lot of fun to win on Saturday. It would be a nice cozy little victory without any any attachments of yeah but or.

 

Will Shelton: [00:06:48] Well we won this game but we’ve already lost three others that we shouldn’t loss or that sort of stuff. So I think those two things for sure. And then I think just we will learn a lot about. I think Tennessee’s relative strengths and some of their relative weaknesses. For instance if Tennessee really wants to run the ball 60 65 times in this game and just line it up and go they you know they’re going to have opportunities to do that against West Virginia that they won’t against Florida. How many times will they actually just say you know what let’s just light up and go let’s go right at them and see if they can stop it. If Tennessee is legitimately bad in the passing game here and they just can’t cover West Virginia man to man they can’t get pressure on the quarterback that sort of stuff. I think that’s a relative weakness but it may not be an overall weakness because we’re not going to see the sort of passing game again for a while. So even if you know on the one hand if Tennessee runs for like four hundred fifty yards I don’t know that that means that we’ll run for 450 yards against Florida. And if we get house in the passing game and we think oh no Alontae Taylor’s terrible and all this other stuff I don’t know that that means that he actually is it may just be West Virginia is really good.

 

Will Shelton: [00:08:03] So there will be even if he wins and rolls via the ground game that may not be a huge sign of things to come and if West Virginia rolls and rolls US up through the air that may not be a huge sign of things to come. So I think there are there’s just a lot of unique qualities about this particular game where you know winning or losing. You never want to do with the first game anyway. But I think winning or losing. You don’t want to lean too much on it. So I think those are kind of I don’t know if that answers your question but those are kind of the three things I think the most Tennesse is going to play well enough that we come out of it feeling good about our chances against Florida. I would I would say Tennessee wins this game 3 3 out of 10 times. And I think we may see some relative strengths and some relative weaknesses but I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. You know going forward from here

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:08:54] Yeah I was going to ask. Although I think you just answered it but maybe a little more ambiguously. Let me let me ask that go ahead and ask the second question which was going to be supposed that Tennesse only loses by three or four or that maybe even a win. What sort of impact does that have on the rest of the season. I know you just said you don’t want to put too much stock in the one game you don’t know that it might mean anything against Florida but does it change your overall expectation for the entire season very much does it does it just the sort of general feel of confidence. Does that do anything for you the rest of the season.

 

Will Shelton: [00:09:38] I think it would do a couple of things. If Tennessee wins. First of all winning against West Virginia creates the expectation that you will go to a bowl game. It would move from the hope to the expectation for one reason because you’re already one to know at that point you’ve got one you know you’re going to get three against easiest you use happen and Charlotte. So that’s for now you’re just talking about OK if we to be Kentucky and Vanderbilt we’re six and six. So a Tennessee beats West Virginia. Then the expectation becomes going into a bowl game

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] And

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] Because

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] If

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] I

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] You

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] Mean

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] Can

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] You

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] Beat

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] Just think

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] West

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] About

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:11] Virginia you think you should be able to be Vandy and Kentucky right.

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:14] Yeah I mean that would be really disappointing right. Barring catastrophic injuries which Lord knows we’ve seen them but that would be really disappointing to beat West Virginia and still finish five and seven. I mean something something really bad has has to happen there. That would mean one in seven in the SEC if ifs or some sort of unforeseen disaster against YouTube or Charlotte or ETSU. If you beat West Virginia and don’t go to a bowl your one in seven in the SCC. So that’s that’s no good. You know we should just said it’s a piece inside here to say if Tennessee wins again like I say it would be the sort of celebration that we haven’t seen around here in in the Florida win in 2016 would certainly be bigger than Georgia when the way it ended bigger. But I think you’d have to go back to Butch’s first year against South Carolina to find that sort of a win like that made you say like hey this is going to work. You know before there were strings attached to it or negative perceptions or anything like that. So just to sort of win that you could totally enjoy without having to factory and all the other stuff. It’s

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:11:24] Yeah.

 

Will Shelton: [00:11:25] Been a minute for that. And you got to go back to Butch’s first year good South Carolina which ultimately didn’t stand up. Kiffin against Georgia. That first year ultimately didn’t stand up because Kiffin left. You know it’s it’s it’s been a long time since something like that.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:11:41] Right.

 

Will Shelton: [00:11:41] And you could still have. Again I’ve made this point several times that people Kirby Smart. They beat North Carolina in Week 1 in his first year in Atlanta was a huge win. It was not a pretty game but it was a big sort of initial win for them that North Carolina seems not as good as this West Virginia at all. But winning that game helped them manage losing to Vanderbilt later in the year. That was part of part of the process. They were seven and five. You know but they got that first one they got off that momentum. So you know Georgia hasn’t been through nearly what we’ve been through the last year years so there will be a whole separate thing there. That winning would do. But I do think this too about playing close this. It feels a little bit to me like the 2014 Oklahoma game at Oklahoma where I think Tennessee was like a 19 point underdog in that game or something like that and actually lost by 24 was a late score. That made it 34 to 10. But I remember most of those coming out of that game and I wrote about ourselves you know Tennessee was competitive in that game for about three quarters.

 

Will Shelton: [00:12:51] There was there was a costly drop or an interception in the end zone in that game. I don’t I don’t. Maybe just Jason Croom was involved on that play. I can’t remember exactly what happened but we had a shot in the endzone that didn’t work out where the game could have been closer or something like that. But I remember coming out of that Oklahoma game and thinking OK we can we can do some damage as you were going to be good and that’s a game we lost by 24. Now that Oklahoma team again not a one to one comparison they were much better than his West Virginia team should be but if Tennessee loses by 9 in this game again I think we’re going to come out of it saying OK we can we can beat Florida 1 and 2 we can we can we can invest in this team. We can watch this team maybe not against Alabama but we can watch that same week to week with the expectation that they’re going to have a chance to win. So I think those are the things that that a close game even if you don’t win a close game will provide you with those sorts of things.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:13:52] Yeah it not only would be a big win if we won or sort of you know. Nobody likes the term moral victory. But you know some validation it wouldn’t just be a big win if it happened. It would also be validation of the hope you know that we’re wanting to put in to prove that oh we made the right decision and we can expect good things. Maybe not against Florida this year or whatever but we can expect good things over the next couple of years that that will be a big thing. So anything you want to add to that for I cut you loose.

 

Will Shelton: [00:14:32] No I think it’s again. I feel like I have been more level we should all be you know now by now after all these coaching changes and all this I don’t I don’t feel like this is again the line is going to have roots in people that are totally unbiased. S&P like say he’s got it down to four and a half. I mean this isn’t crazy talk. It’s hey we’re going to go play a team that were between four and a half and ten points an underdog to on a neutral field with a brand new coach who knows what’s going to happen but I think there’s enough possibility that this isn’t this isn’t crazy talk is not grasping at straws it’s a like saying you played 10 times I think he went three and you hope that Saturday turns into turns into one of those three.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:15] All right well that’ll do it for this edition of the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. Follow us Subscribe via iTunes or soundcloud. Give us a rating. Give us a review. Bonus points for using the word room Mamma Mia. I don’t know. I just was in the mood to give bonus points and I

 

Will Shelton: [00:15:38] Sure.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:39] And I started down that road before I thought it out. So

 

Will Shelton: [00:15:42] That’s right.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:43] Mamma Mia it is. You use the word Mamma Mia. You get bonus points is like Whose Line Is It Anyway. Know the points don’t matter. But hey there they are. So anyway. That’ll do it. We will have actually a another podcast or two. This week we’re going to be doing fewer but more often and the next one will be with Brad probably go live on Tuesday or Wednesday so stick around for that subscribe. Be sure to read all week we’re into game mode starting tomorrow morning Monday morning and hope you have a great evening. Think I’ll do a different. I wonder how many how many season tickets Dave Ramsey has canceled just on his own because you

 

Will Shelton: [00:16:30] Should

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:30] Can’t

 

Will Shelton: [00:16:30] Have

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:30] Put you can’t put him on the credit card.

 

Will Shelton: [00:16:33] Threat should have should have asked him that. But I’ve met him a couple of times I should have asked him either of those times. But alas it has not has not worked out. So.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:42] Yeah how many lives has he ruined. Yeah.

 

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Last year, we started talking about expectations for the Tennessee Volunteers football team in a different way. Rather than just look at the schedule and assign each game a W or an L, we assigned each game a confidence level as a percentage. A certain win was 100%, a certain loss was 0%, and a toss-up hovered somewhere around 50%. Calculating those out gave us what we believe is a better look at what we really expect the team’s final record to be at the end of the season.

Each game week in this space, we’ll monitor the impact of the prior week on our expectations for the rest of the season. How did Tennessee look? How do its prior wins and losses look now in light of how their past opponents did the prior weekend? How does the future look in light of how the Vols’ future opponents did? And how does all of that impact our expectations for the team’s final record?

Of course, we have no prior week to work with at this point, so we’re just going to benchmark our expectations heading into the season, acknowledging first that this season is a vast expanse of the unknown due to the all-new coaching staff.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Use the form below to submit your data and get your answer.

Joel’s results and expectations

I’m at 5.9 wins. Here’s how I feel about each game, with space between the order of the games to help show relative confidence level of each game at this point:

My preliminary thoughts about each game are below. Leave yours in the comment section.

West Virginia Mountaineers

I’m putting this at 40%. The line has been 9.5-10.5 most of the preseason, but my numbers are showing somewhere between 3-4 instead. That’s based on last season’s numbers, of course, which aren’t especially reliable. But I think we’ll be better. West Virginia will be better as well, but I think it mostly balances out, so I’m rolling with my numbers at this point.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers, UTEP Miners, Charlotte 49ers

I have all of these at 95%. The Vols really shouldn’t have any problem with either of these teams.

Florida Gators

I have this one at 45% right now. This is based on a hope bordering on belief that Jeremy Pruitt will eliminate fluky losses to the Gators.

Georgia Bulldogs, Auburn Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide

These guys are all just too good for the Vols right now. Among the three, I have Alabama as the most difficult and Georgia as the least.

South Carolina Gamecocks

I think the Gamecocks are going to be a little more difficult than the Gators this year, so I have this one at 40%.

Kentucky Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Vanderbilt Commodores

I have all of these as toss ups right now. I’m most fearful of Missouri.

What about you? What are your numbers, what’s your expected win total, and why?

Every Season Tells a Story

For a few of us, the 2018 season kicked over the weekend (Duquesne at UMass baby!). For the rest of us, now it’s game week: everyone’s undefeated, and everyone can dream.

Tennessee’s dreams have been some combination of strange and brief for a long time now. Standing in the way this fall are a Top 20 opener, annual rivalries with the present-and-perhaps-future kings of college football, and the annoying habit of drawing one of the best teams from the SEC West that isn’t Alabama. All of this on the heels of the program’s first eight-loss season and, even more, the worst S&P+ rating of any SEC team when it made its most recent coaching change. Another dream might meet another quick death this fall. The potential for adding another year on that tab might make us wonder if it’s healthy to dream at all.

Along those lines, the last ten years have made me less attached to the head coach, though I’m not sure one can totally escape such attachments no matter where you fall on the spectrum from fan to fanatic. For me it’s one part self-preservation: Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, and Butch Jones were all exhausting to defend in their own ways.

But at the same time, what has given me the most comfort and confidence in the last nine months is the presence of Phillip Fulmer. He is, for sure, a coach I was incredibly attached to in all of our younger days. But it’s also because of something I remember most from when those days came to an end:

(from November 3, 2008 at SouthEastern Sports Blog)

Doug Matthews was on Sports Talk earlier today, and made this point: Nick Saban is a fantastic coach, but he’s not personally invested in the University of Alabama the way that Phillip Fulmer was and is invested in the University of Tennessee. Not even close.

Urban Meyer’s not. Neither is Les Miles or Mark Richt.

And the next man who comes in here won’t be either.

Meyer and Miles have won National Championships. And we absolutely hope whoever comes in here next will do the same.

But what we gave away today we won’t find again.

Butch Jones and Lane Kiffin were from somewhere else, Derek Dooley the son of Georgia royalty. Jeremy Pruitt is from the opposite of here.

But there remains no one more personally invested in Tennessee Football than the person who hired him.

There are never any guarantees; we already asked Fulmer to leave once. But as the Vols lost both games and trust in record numbers last fall, he was the only choice, and in all the right ways. I don’t know if or when the Vols will get back to winning like the 1990’s again. But I do find it easier to trust something good is possible with someone so personally invested back in the decision-making chair. That much of what we lost is found again. And it’s valuable, at least to me.

We do all this every year because we love the Vols. Even when they don’t win. But now it’s a little easier to have faith, or at least it feels a little more right. And Fulmer hired hope, an unproven risk/reward coach even though safe and easy options were on the board. The ultimate goal hasn’t changed for us, because it certainly hasn’t changed for him. And it’s one Pruitt knows quite well as an assistant coach.

All of that is down the road, but we can dream its dream. This is Week One. This week we don’t have to worry about how long we’ve been gone. This week everything is new, just as it feels the right kind of old.

And this week is about all of us pulling in the same direction, something we haven’t enjoyed for more than a few short weeks in a very long time. I don’t know how far Jeremy Pruitt and the 2018 Vols will go this fall. He’ll earn some level of trust along the way. But after a season when the rope slipped through our fingers faster than ever, then threatened to unravel entirely? Now we get a chance to pick it back up again, together in more than name only. This is the week to grab the rope. Set your feet. And by God pull.

It’s here.

This week, in Charlotte, in Knoxville, and wherever you listen…it’s football time in Tennessee.

Mistakes will be made. What will they cost?

If you’ve ever devoted much time to reading business/management/self-improvement books, you’ve probably heard the story about the IBM employee who feared he was going to be terminated after making a mistake that cost the company several million dollars. His boss told him that there was no way they were going to fire him now because they had just spent several million dollars educating him.

Whether that actually happened, I don’t know, and it’s probably worth pointing out that the guy to whom this is usually attributed is former IBM CEO Tom Watson, who reportedly also once said that the world only needed five computers. Reports that he actually said that are also dubious, by the way.

Regardless, the reason the story is often repeated in business and management circles is that it drives home an undeniable truth: Mistakes can be valuable because of the education and experience they create.

Mistakes, investments, and goodwill accounts

The trick, of course, is to make sure that the mistake-maker actually leverages his blunder into useful experience and that he achieves and then maintains a positive ledger before his time runs out and his account of goodwill runs dry.

College football coaches are well acquainted with this notion. If progress and success are deposits stored up with their bosses and fans, then mistakes (and losses generally, over time) are withdrawals. Withdrawals can be the equivalent of a little spending money or they can be major catastrophes to the balance of the account. Spend more than you have, and you’re overdrawn. No coach can remain overdrawn for long, no matter the size of his opening balance.

Tennessee football is in a rebuilding phase, and in that sense, it’s kind of like a startup, flush with stacks of crisp new $100 bills. In essence, Jeremy Pruitt begins his Tennessee tenure with a generous loan. The opening balance funds the “honeymoon” period, and the expectation is that he will make more withdrawals than deposits for some period of time.

Goodwill management

Pruitt’s primary goal for the immediate future, then, is to manage his stash of investment goodwill well. He’ll have some opportunities to increase his balance by having his team do well, and if he can capitalize on those opportunities, it will be good for everyone involved.

But mostly, he’s going to be on a bit of a spending spree for a while, and he’ll have to make the most of it. With a tough year looming, he can spend what he needs to, but he can’t burn through it like a prodigal lottery winner with a few hundred new friends.

Mistake management

As a brand new head coach in the SEC, Pruitt’s going to make some mistakes this year.

As a weary fan base, so will we.

What all of that costs depends largely on how well those mistakes are managed.

Football seasons are funny things. We fans tell ourselves before the season begins, when the numbers are sterile and devoid of emotion and pain, that a six-loss season is a reasonable goal. We tell ourselves that we expect mistakes to be made and that it’s just part of the process that we’re prepared to endure for a while.

And then we actually witness those mistakes in all of their gory glory while in a heightened state of emotion, and logic and reason fly out the window as quickly as regrettable words fly out of our mouths. It’s one thing to predict just one more L in the win/loss column. It’s another thing entirely to watch a rival receiver get behind the entire defense to grab a game-winning, 63-yard touchdown pass with 9 seconds left in a tie game. The letter “L” doesn’t make you raise your voice. Watching your team gift wrap a miracle to a hated rival — again! — will make you scream bloody murder.

Jeremy Pruitt’s job this fall is not to make no mistakes. He’s a new head coach with a steep learning curve ahead of him, and he’s going to do some things that cause us pain.

What he does need to do, though, is minimize his mistakes and learn from the ones he makes.

As fans, our support for Pruitt need not be unconditional. We don’t need to give him a free pass for his mistakes, and we aren’t expected to endure forever mistakes that are never leveraged into education, experience, and, in due time, success.

But the temptation to overcharge, to price-gouge Pruitt’s goodwill account in the emotional aftermath of an early mistake or two is coming, and we would be wise to resist it.

2018 Gameday on Rocky Top Picks Contest

It’s back and better than ever: the 2018 Gameday on Rocky Top Picks Contest is now open. As always, we’re using our friends at Fun Office Pools: we pick 20 games each week (straight up) using confidence points, where you place 20 points on the outcome you’re most confident in, one point on the outcome you’re least confident in, etc. Weekly winners get a free Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt; the regular season champ gets pride, plus a free Gameday on Rocky Top hoodie.

NEW THIS YEAR: the games are listed with the latest weekend kickoff first, which means if you forget to pick the Thursday night game it only costs you one point instead of 20. My apologies that it took us having a baby last fall to realize how ridiculous that punishment used to be.

If you’ve played in one of our pools before, you should’ve received an email with sign-up instructions. You can also click here to sign up! Any questions, fire away in the comments below.

Here’s our Week 1 slate!

Thursday, August 30

  • Northwestern at Purdue – 8:00 PM – ESPN

Friday, August 31

  • Army at Duke – 7:00 PM – ESPNU
  • Western Kentucky at #4 Wisconsin – 9:00 PM – ESPN
  • San Diego State at #13 Stanford – 9:00 PM – Fox Sports 1

Saturday, September 1

  • Florida Atlantic at #7 Oklahoma – 12:00 PM – FOX
  • Ole Miss vs Texas Tech (Houston) – 12:00 PM – ESPN
  • #23 Texas at Maryland – 12:00 PM – Fox Sports 1
  • Tennessee vs #17 West Virginia (Charlotte) – 3:30 PM – CBS
  • #6 Washington vs #9 Auburn (Atlanta) – 3:30 PM – ABC
  • Appalachian State at #10 Penn State – 3:30 PM – Big Ten Network
  • Central Michigan at Kentucky – 3:30 PM – ESPNU
  • Washington State at Wyoming – 3:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
  • #22 Boise State at Troy – 6:00 PM – ESPNEWS
  • Cincinnati at UCLA – 7:00 PM – ESPN
  • #14 Michigan at #12 Notre Dame – 7:30 PM – NBC
  • Middle Tennessee at Vanderbilt – 7:30 PM – SEC Network
  • #1 Alabama vs Louisville (Orlando) – 8:00 PM – ABC
  • BYU at Arizona – 10:45 PM – ESPN

Sunday, September 2

  • #8 Miami vs #25 LSU (Dallas) – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 3

  • #20 Virginia Tech at #19 Florida State – 8:00 PM – ESPN

 

Tennessee Shores Up Offensive Line of the Future With Melvin McBride Commitment

With spots filling up quickly and some big-name targets remaining on the board, Tennessee can afford to be selective with the last few players it takes in this year’s recruiting class.

That alone should tell you what the coaching staff thinks of Melvin McBride, a 6’4″, 315-pound projected offensive guard from Whitehaven HS in Memphis who pledged to UT over Arkansas, Memphis, Louisville and others on Wednesday.

The Vols already have commitments from 5-star offensive tackle Wanya Morris, 4-star offensive guard/tackle Jackson Lampley and 3-star guard Chris Akporoghene — and they’re right at the top of the list for 5-star tackle Darnell Wright with Alabama. But Pruitt has been upgraded Tennessee’s size in the trenches since he got here.

And, unlike some of the coaches before him, he knows you never turn down a big body who wants to come to your school, especially one who has crazy upside. McBride’s high school coach told 247Sports’ Steve Wiltfong that McBride is “scary athletic.” The uber-athletic big man can play along the front on either side of the ball, and he is a basketball standout, too.

In other words, he possesses the kind of size and athleticism that you can’t teach, and it’s exactly what you want along the offensive front.

If you’re Pruitt, you take him now and figure out the numbers later. But McBride is definitely a guy you want in this class, especially considering you want and need to have plenty of able bodies up front.

The Vols are already reportedly improving up front with the additions of JUCO tackle Jahmir Johnson and freshman Jerome Carvin. Another freshman, Ollie Lane, could factor into the equation down the road, and the return of Trey Smith, Chance Hall and the transfer of Brandon Kennedy should help with a unit that was awful a year ago.

But if the Vols can close the deal on Wright, this has the potential to be the best O-line class at Tennessee in a long, long time. McBride figured to be headed to Arkansas recently, but a couple of Memphis-area Vols — Carvin and junior offensive tackle Drew Richmond — reportedly talked with McBride deep into the night and convinced him he needed to wear orange and white.

That’s exactly the kind of peer recruiting you need. In that conversation was a first-year guy who has been given the opportunity to prove himself and shone immediately, placing himself firmly in the mix to start (Carvin), a maligned veteran who has struggled at times throughout his career but still looks like the Game 1 starter at one of the tackle spots as he tries to turn around his career (Richmond) and a guy who will fill the void in the future in McBride.

It speaks volumes for the kind of environment Pruitt and offensive line coach Will Friend fostered since arriving on campus.

Yes, UT now has 20 commitments in a class that wasn’t supposed to reach 25, but there’s a long way between now and national signing day. You never know about defections, flips, mutual parting of ways, injuries or other factors. McBride was a big ol’ bird in hand, and he not only gives the Vols a great athletic big man with a huge upside (he’s only played football one season), he helps Pruitt and Co. get in the door of Whitehaven, a powerhouse in West Tennessee.

His coach thinks he’s a steal.

“Extremely athletic for a man that size — actually, scary athletic for a guy that size,” Whitehaven coach Rodney Saulsberry said, according to the Knoxville News-Sentinel‘s Blake Toppmeyer. “Extremely strong, extremely driven and extremely coachable. The kid is a sponge to learning. He wants to get better.”

McBride’s pledge moves Tennessee to No. 10 in the 247Sports Composite rankings, and the Vols are eighth on Rivals.

The Vols need help all over the field in this year’s recruiting cycle, but they have placed a major emphasis on the trenches. McBride is the fourth offensive lineman and the 10th trench man to pledge in this year’s haul.

McBride isn’t the most polished player yet, but he’d be one of the most athletic linemen on UT’s roster. Best of all, he’ll actually have some time to develop like an offensive lineman is supposed to, considering he’s going to be stepping into a situation where UT has some nice-looking young guard prospects like Carvin, K’Rojhn Calbert, Riley Locklear and Ryan Johnson. McBride looks like a definite interior lineman like Akporoghene, and Morris and Lampley could project to tackle.

The Vols are going to have options, and Pruitt has proved so far in spring and fall camps that he wants his guys to learn to play multiple positions so he can always have his best players on the field if there are injuries.

McBride’s athleticism lends itself to future versatility, and while the Razorbacks have come into the state and grabbed a few guys the Vols didn’t prioritize in what is a good year rankings-wise for guys from the Volunteer State, it was good to see Pruitt get a big man he wanted in a head-to-head battle.

The Vols likely are done on the offensive front until Wright makes his decision, and the big man from West Virginia has a spot regardless. It’ll be interesting to see how the final few places in the class shakes out.

Worth reading 8.22.18: the Idiot Optimist’s Guide to the 2018 season

If you read only one thing about the Vols today . . .

. . . make it the 2018 edition of Will’s ever-awesome Idiot Optimist’s Guide:

Other Vols stuff worth reading today

  1. Rucker: Older, wiser Jonathan Kongbo easier to believe in for Tennessee Vols football, via 247Sports
  2. Why Somebody Must Stand Up in Tennessee’s Quarterback Derby, via Gameday on Rocky Top
  3. Tennessee Vols Baylen Buchanan confident talented secondary, via 247Sports
  4. WVU football closing in on 2018 season-opener against Tennessee, via 247Sports
  5. Tennessee DBs eager to play in Pruitt’s ‘in-your-face’ defense, via 247Sports
  6. Tennessee Vols Football: Injury bug keeps biting at West Virginia, via 247Sports
  7. The Fumble that kept Vols’ national title run on track almost never happened, via Saturday Down South
  8. Tennessee Vols Football: Phillip Fulmer remembers emotional final moments of 1998 title game, via 247Sports

Behind the paywalls

The Idiot Optimist’s Guide to the 2018 Season

Did you know the Vols are 500-to-1 to win the national championship? That’s life-changing money, boys!

Listen, I’ve already got the basketball Vols at 25-to-1 to win it all. Those winnings are set aside to get right with the debt collectors and the Lord, so it’s all limousine ridin’ and jet flyin’ with the rest. My wife had already been telling me I should pay less attention to Butch Jones and more to Rick Barnes long before last fall went right down the drain. And when Admiral dunked that ball at Rupp Arena, I asked her right then and there if we could name our first child Private First Class. She did not go for that, but she’s got an SEC Championship t-shirt in the closet, by God. And you’d better clear out some room for the Pruitt collection.

I mean, with Phillip at the helm, it don’t much matter who the coach is. Only took us a decade to figure that one out. And whenever CPF (ADPF?) decides to retire to Wyoming with a fistful of championships, we can simplify the search process. If you want to involve the common man and the common fan, you don’t have to schedule an on-campus riot to do it. Just get one of us a spot on the search committee. Then have the prospective new AD start down their list of hypothetical coaching candidates. If our first response is, “Who’s that?”, “(Fulmerized) no!”, or “…wait, what?”, you don’t hire that person. Something that simple could’ve saved us from Derek Dooley, Butch Jones, and Greg Schiano.

But we don’t need saving anymore. Fulmer’s bringing championships to the entire athletic department. You do know the only reason we didn’t win the NCAA Tournament is because we got beat by God, right? But only by one point! If Sister Jean’s reward is a Final Four appearance for a mid-major, I know we’re due at least six national championships. She turned 99 this week, and I hope that lady has lots of time left on this earth. But I hope she also knows that in heaven, it’s John Ward and Bill Anderson on the call.

Look man, Jeremy Pruitt got the Tennessee job, got out there ‘cruitin’, then held Clemson’s offense to 2.69 yards per play in his spare time. Remember how excited you were when we signed Kyle Phillips, Shy Tuttle, Jonathan Kongbo, Darrin Kirkland, Nigel Warrior…I mean, basically our entire defense? Now think about them in this guy’s hands. What’s the record for fewest first downs in a season? Wait, is it the Clawfense?

Then on offense, nevermind who’s playing quarterback, this year they’ll have actual coaching! Imagine that! And Florida State fans still believe they’d’ve won the title in ’98 if Chris Weinke was healthy, but he’s not even good enough to coach our QBs! But really, here’s all the coaching they need: get the ball to the guy who wore Gator-skin boots to the postgame, then caught a hail mary, then told the truth about our previous administration IN LANGUAGE THE INTERIM COACH COULD UNDERSTAND. Get the ball to Jauan, and Weinke won’t have the only Heisman on the property. It doesn’t even matter that we could start all four-and-five-stars on the offensive line. One of them is Trey Smith, and he’s been waiting all year to hit somebody. Good luck, West Virginia.

And look, I fully respect a man who refuses to acknowledge the reality of the situation atop his head. I’m a Holgo man. West Virginians are our Appalachian brethren. But the Mountaineers are Diet Tennessee: looks the same, tastes kinda the same but mostly worse, zero national championships.

Then we get Randy Sanders’s ETSU program, who will change their mascot to the screen pass by the end of the year if they haven’t already. But I think they could take UTEP, who went 0-12 last year but only lost 11 of them by at least 14 points.

When I close my eyes and dream, I see the four game winning streak we should be on against the Gators. Instead, we lost once because we wet the bed in the red zone, once because we gave up a 4th-and-17, and once on a hail mary. And that’s just the Cliffs Notes. But one in a row is better than none in a row. Do you know the last Tennessee coach to beat the Gators on his very first try? Phillip By God Fulmer. And never you mind that new coach in Gainesville, the same truth still applies: they ain’t no good. Vols by 30, unless we decide to win 20-17 in overtime as a tribute. And don’t worry, that means we can pay tribute to 1998 against Georgia by keeping them out of the end zone altogether. But I do appreciate the Dawgs helping us move along with our coaching search last fall.

Then it’s Auburn, who beat Alabama last year because the Tide had 1st-and-10 inside the Auburn 40 on their last three drives and scored zero points. That’s not Jeremy’s fault! Sounds like a Saban problem to me. I’m sure their new intern can solve that one. If you don’t think the Pruitt-for-Butch trade makes Tennessee over Alabama the lock of the century, I don’t know what to tell you. How many life championships are Bama fans claiming by now? I can’t keep giving out these winners for free!

We’ve owed Will Muschamp a punch in the face for like six years now, and finally have the coaching staff that will encourage that sort of behavior, metaphorically speaking, instead of being satisfied that we’re close enough to put our hands on them but let’s see what happens in the fourth quarter. Then we play the 49ers, which might’ve been a good game back in the 80’s but I’m not sold on the Garoppolo kid yet. He does have the advantage of moving as far away as physically possible from Tom Brady, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Kentucky? Wait til basketball season. Missouri? I’ve been hoping we’d schedule the Cowboys for years, this is a much easier way to get a piece of Derek Dooley. Vanderbilt? Swept them in basketball too! It don’t matter who we see in Atlanta since we’ll’ve already beaten the two best teams in the division. But in the playoff, I’m pulling for Ohio State, Florida Atlantic, and of course, Wake Forest. Since we’re guaranteed a shot at Butch Jones and Derek Dooley already, I figure we can just go ahead and cleanse our palate altogether.

15-0, National Champions, boys. Then we’re going after that single-season college basketball wins record, which is currently held by three John Calipari teams (or two teams and an asterisk). Get your tattoos now, boys. And don’t tell my wife I already did.

Hey look, only took me nine years to learn about GIFs!

via GIPHY

 

 

 

 

Why Somebody Must Stand Up in Tennessee’s Quarterback Derby

If you think Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt is mum on his quarterback battle this preseason because he wants to lob a bit of gamesmanship in the direction of West Virginia, I think you’re off.

It’s because he’s simply not enamored with either of his two frontrunners — or anybody in particular — when it comes to who’s going to lead this Tennessee offense.

Redshirt sophomore Jarrett Guarantano’s name comes up the most as being the favorite to win the job, but graduate transfer senior Keller Chryst hasn’t been ruled out yet, either. While it would be a long shot for Will McBride or freshman JT Shrout to trot out with the 1s against West Virginia, they haven’t been officially axed in the race, either.

Pruitt knows UT has made improvements at a lot of places on the field. Offensively, in particular, the Vols have shown glimmers of hope. The running backs actually have the potential to be stout, considering Ty Chandler is the flashiest player on the team, Tim Jordan followed up his spring-game breakout with a solid preseason and Michigan State transfer Madre London is going to be hard to handle, especially in short-yardage situations.

The Vols’ wide receiving corps hasn’t been consistent in the first couple of weeks of camp, but unit coach David Johnson is known for getting the most out of his guys. If veteran Jauan Jennings gets over his bumps and bruises, he’ll lead a group that has a lot of upside with steady players like Marquez Callaway and Brandon Johnson. Josh Palmer has enjoyed a nice camp, and Jordan Murphy looks like he could help a lot right away. Maybe even freshman Cedric Tillman will have a role. The tight end position got a major boost from JUCO transfer Dominick Wood-Anderson, who should be targeted often.

Then you’ve got an offensive line group that was an atrocity a year ago but has begun to look serviceable. If Trey Smith returns at 100 percent, you can add him to a group where newcomers Brandon Kennedy, Jahmir Johnson and Jerome Carvin are carving a role. If Chance Hall can help and K’Rojhn Calbert can continue to improve, the group looks much better with veterans like Ryan Johnson, Drew Richmond, Marcus Tatum and Riley Locklear in the mix, too.

Which brings us to quarterback, where all we know is there is one, big rippling fart noise in the reports.

Come on, man.

If Guarantano can’t emerge as The Man in Year 3, that’s a cause for concern. He has all the tools: a big arm, decent speed, can make all the throws and isn’t too erratic. The New Jersey native really struggled a year ago with his internal clock, and that seems to be an issue so far in camp, as well. You can’t make plays if plays flicker out in the backfield. Guarantano must learn to feel pressure, evade it and deliver strikes to his receivers or tuck and run. He can’t take too many drive-killing sacks.

Chryst isn’t the same kind of playmaker and doesn’t have near the arm as Guarantano, but does he advance the unit downfield better? That’s something we can’t know. He’s a big kid, but he isn’t as physically gifted as Guarantano, so why hasn’t he been ruled the backup already?

It’s either because he’s been better than reported or because Guarantano isn’t good enough yet. Pruitt needs to keep both guys motivated, and the Vols need for that to translate into quality reps when it matters most.

The truth is it would be a stunner if Chryst won the job. It’s Guarantano’s to lose, and he’s GOING TO be the guy, but he absolutely must take it and run with it. If it’s Chryst early, the Vols are in Kenny Loggins’ danger zone.

Offensive coordinator Tyson Helton has led groups before that featured quality quarterbacks. Brandon Doughty posted record-breaking numbers at Western Kentucky, and Sam Darnold developed into a first-round draft pick under Helton’s tutelage at Southern Cal. But it doesn’t feel like the Vols are going to be a quarterback-led team in 2018, at least not at the beginning of the year.

If the offensive line is improved, the running backs are good enough to be the leaders on the offense. That means all Guarantano [or Chryst] needs to be is a game manager who doesn’t get the team beat by negative plays or turnovers, but they need to be able to make a few [don’t say splash, don’t say splash] big-gainers to get chunk yardage in clutch situations.

In other words, there’s no reason the winner of UT’s quarterback derby can’t be as good as Kentucky’s Stephen Johnson or Texas A&M’s Nick Starkel were a year ago. In a perfect world, you’d love to see Guarantano win the gig, settle into a muted role the way Jake Fromm did for most of the year with Georgia a season ago and then burst out in some big games later in the year.

Nobody is suggesting this year’s Tennessee can be anything like 2017 Georgia. Fromm’s supporting cast was worlds better than anything the Vols can trot out this year. But the cupboard isn’t bare in Knoxville. Butch Jones didn’t recruit enough talent, but the biggest issue was the development of the players once they got to campus; not getting good ones to come.

The Vols got less out of more than any other team in college football during the past five years, without question.

Tennessee doesn’t have the horses to compete with Alabama, Auburn or Georgia (all of which are, sadly, on the ’18 schedule) but that’s not where the season will be made or broken. Huge early-season games loom against West Virginia and Florida, and then UT needs to be in good enough shape and not spiraling out of control in the loss column to be able to finish strong late in the year.

In order to do that — beat the Mountaineers or Gators and reel off a nice season-ending streak — the Vols can’t have crappy quarterback play. This team isn’t going to be good enough to be like some of those Nick Saban-led champion Alabama teams who could have propped up any old stiff under center.

They’ve got to have somebody who takes care of the ball and can take care of a drive with a big play every once in a while.

Guarantano [or Chryst… but really Guarantano] need to prove they’re worth their scholarship. It’s time. Anything less, and it’s going to be a long football season again on Rocky Top.