Category Archives: Football

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast: Brad’s most expected outcomes for Vols-Mountaineers and Long John Silvers

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Notes

[00:00:12]
I’m leaving that robo-transcription error because I find it hilarious. 🙂

 

 

Transcript

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:12] This is the game day Iraqi top podcast. Joel Hollingsworth and I’m with Brad Shepherd. Brad how are you doing.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:00:21] I am doing great. It’s game week.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:23] It is game week. We’re all feeling good about that and I’m going to ask you the same thing that I asked Will which is what is the last thing you that you ate

 

Brad Shepard: [00:00:35] What is the last

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:35] You

 

Brad Shepard: [00:00:36] Thing

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:36] Weren’t

 

Brad Shepard: [00:00:36] That

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:36] Expecting.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:00:36] I ate. Believe it or not this is a horrible horrible answer for that question which is I actually just ate chicken from Long John Silver’s for the first time in like two years. And it is not a good thing.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:53] So you only have like a half hour before you need to go.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:00:56] Pretty much. It was nothing sounded good. So yeah really know what possessed me to do that. But

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:07] Long

 

Brad Shepard: [00:01:07] So far

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:07] John

 

Brad Shepard: [00:01:07] So

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:07] Silvers

 

Brad Shepard: [00:01:08] Good.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:08] We’ll get you especially the hushpuppies man. There’s nothing better than a good Hushpuppy.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:01:13] Man you know I love that place. But then I hate that place. After a little while

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:21] It is true.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:01:21] It’s bad but maybe it will be OK. I’m hoping I’m hoping so.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:26] All right. So vol stuff. I’m going to ask you the same question I asked Will on Monday and that is basically what are your what’s your top expected outcome for the Tennessee West Virginia game and then what are your backup plans. And here’s what I mean by that and I tell you my answers just so you can because I probably didn’t explain it very well. So I have run my stats preview thing and I was surprised that it only gave West Virginia an edge of between three and four. I was surprised because the line is still nine and a half to ten and a half although we’ll told me on Monday that the S&P has been updated to only four and a half. So maybe there’s something there. Not sure but anyway so my most expected outcome is West Virginia winning by three or four points. But I also think that because there’s such a potent offensive passing team that if they find a weakness and just keep exploiting it over and over and over again they could run away with it. So that’s my second most expected outcome. But then third is that because I think it’s going to be a 3 or 4 point game that also gives Tennessee the opportunity to maybe steal one in the end in a close game. So my expected outcomes in order are won West Virginia wins by three or four. Two West Virginia runs away with it and three Tennessee pulls out a close win. So what’s your most expected outcome and then what are your backup expectations.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:03:15] Yeah I mean that’s a great question and I’ve I’ve given it some thought actually because I’m trying to figure out what do I do or go into Saturday expecting. I mean I know you know kind of from my own personal expectations. There are two things I’m expecting about Saturday. Number one is it’s my little boy’s birthday so

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:03:36] Hey

 

Brad Shepard: [00:03:36] I’m expecting to be frantically running around crazy

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:03:39] And you’ll be

 

Brad Shepard: [00:03:39] On

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:03:39] Eating cake.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:03:39] Saturday. Yes I’ll be eating cake and my number two thing is that you know it’s going to be my first. It’s my first hand or a for Bleacher Report interviewing the winners and losers column which essentially turned out to be about 20 slots so it’s been a hectic busy day for me. And I’ve actually got some my buddy David Fujiyama in town from Asheville so that’s going to be bonkers that whole day is going to be crazy. I am going to watch the Tennessee game. I’m

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:10] You

 

Brad Shepard: [00:04:10] Going

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:10] Should.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:04:10] To

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:11] I’m

 

Brad Shepard: [00:04:11] Watch

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:11] Sorry

 

Brad Shepard: [00:04:11] Every play of it

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:12] I have. I have advice for you. I just have to jump in. Sorry. You should soak your cake

 

Brad Shepard: [00:04:17] Yes.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:17] And

 

Brad Shepard: [00:04:17] Yeah.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:17] 5 hour energy just like soak it.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:04:22] They need to do that because I’m going to have to get up at 7 to get to the park and get everything ready for the birthday and then I will absolutely be up until at least 2:00 a.m.. I mean that’s that’s that’s the drop dead. I mean. I mean that’s like. I mean I say to drop dead that’s the earliest that I’m going to. So it’s going to be just insane. I mean but you know like I said I’m I’m absolutely going to watch the Tennessee game every play of it. There’s no way that I would miss that game simply because you know obviously because I’m totally fine. But. But secondly because I have no idea what to expect. I mean it that really excites me. I mean I didn’t ever think as a reporter. I mean as somebody who lived that life I didn’t ever think that I would enjoy not really knowing what to expect but it’s kind of fun this year because and that’s that’s kind of my long intro. To answer your question but I agree with you as far as what I think my most expected outcome is I was thinking that the line should probably be about 5 or six. So I’m thinking you know somewhere around in there three three to six points that West Virginia wins by by three to six points. That’s that’s kind of what I expect. Only because you know I don’t think I mean the game really kind of feels. And I know it’s a it’s a different type of team than than Northwestern. But the game kind of feels northwesterly to me just because I don’t really think that anybody knows you know really.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:05:58] It’s just such a clash of supposed styles that we don’t really know what to expect. And I don’t think that Tennessee is going to have a decisive speed advantage like they had in that northwestern game. But also I’m not sure that Tennessee is not going to be able to just use the word dominate because coming off for an eight season you don’t dominate anything but Tennessee is going to be able. I don’t know that they’re not going to be able to successfully run the well against West Virginia too because I think West Virginia is not that good. So the only reason why I would give West Virginia the edge bar anywhere between four and six points is because I think that Tennessee doesn’t really know how to win games and and that’s going to maybe kind of spill over a little bit at least until they get their footing. So I think that’s my most expected outcome as a close loss my second most expected outcome though is Tennessee winning the game because I really believe and not running away with it but winning a close game. And it’s because I really do think that Tennessee is going to be able to move the football and score points against West Virginia. West Virginia’s best win last year came against an up and down our state team. And I know that we really couldn’t gauge what kind of football team that was later in the season once Greer got hurt. But even though they were a dangerous team at times last year with Greer they also were never a very good defensive team. And also they weren’t very good running the football so I don’t know that West Virginia’s balance is going to be where it needs to be and it all kind of you know it all kind of kind of hinges on Tennessee’s ability to slow down the pass so you know whether whether they’re the young quarterbacks are up to speed whether Tennessee can generate any pass rush.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:07:52] But I think that Tennessee is going to do is going to be able to control some possessions behind an offensive line that I think is going to be much improved and a running and a stable of running backs. I think it’s been a pleasant surprise us this year so my second most expect outcome is that Tennessee actually pulls through and wins the game and then third most expected. Like you said kind of your second is that you know the that we’re just overmatch the passing game and that you know we don’t have enough bullets with Gerome Tonota to you know to be able to match them in a in a shooting match. And so but. But I really don’t think that’s going to happen because I think the contrasting styles actually the Tennessee actually has some some things that could be it could go their way. I don’t think that roots want to blow smoke and he didn’t blow any smoke in the in the spring when he didn’t say much and he was very he was not very pleased with Tennessee and he seems pretty pleased right now. I don’t think that he thinks this is a great thing but I think he is. I think that he feels pretty good about their competitive edge about their development about their growth as a football team and

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:09:03] Yeah the change in tone has been very mysterious hasn’t it.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:09:08] Has and this is not you know as I said this is not a coach that comes from a pedigree of pomp and sunshine. His dad is not that kind of guys. We’ve learned throughout some interviews from some articles that have been done. That as a longtime high school football coach Saban obviously is not that kind of guy. It was not that in the spring so I’m a little excited it seems at least on the surface unless he’s just excited to play football and kind of get this year out of the way. And I do know that he’s told some recruits hey you know it’s going to be worse this year than what it’s going to be at any point during my tenure. But I feel like that might be just kind of buffering thing just in case. But he he seems quite confident and maybe not quietly confident that they’re going to win this game. But quietly confident that they’re going to be sneakily better than what a lot of people think that they’re going to be and maybe that were given credit for. I think that he’s played this game of love us really not knowing what to expect to perfection. And if there is a little games gamesmanship on Saturday then I think that benefits Tennessee.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:24] So they’re underestimating our sneakiness as what you’re saying.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:10:28] I’m hoping that that’s the case. I definitely would not go out on a limb and predict and see to win the football game.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:36] Yeah.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:10:36] But I also don’t think that it’s farfetched at all to think that that could be when I know coming out of that day.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:43] So suppose that one of your top two expectations happens that Tennessee loses a close game or maybe even wins. How does that impact your expectations for the for the season or does

 

Brad Shepard: [00:10:57] It does and I said that today in speaking with some friends about you asked me exactly that question. You know I think that we’re going to tell a whole lot about this team on Saturday because if they can come out and beat West Virginia then I think that they’re going to have a lot of confidence in themselves because this is a game. It’s a game that nobody really expects them to win. West Virginia is a top 10 team in some publications are a top 20 team and essentially all publications and you know this is a team that’s dangerous offensively a lot of people are predicting big things for them this year in the Big 12. And if Tennessee comes out and wins this game I do not think Florida is a good football team and I like Dan Mullen. I think Dan Mullin is a very good developer developer of talent. I don’t think he’s a great recruiter but I think he does a good job of maximizing the players on the roster so I think Ford is going to get better as the year progresses. I think they’ve got the same quarterback question marks that Tennessee has at this point and I don’t recall at all.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:12:06] I don’t think anybody will recall having very many offensive weapons and Calloway’s no longer there and you know they don’t have a they don’t have a lot of players that we know well and beef fans they always have pretty good a pretty good sense but offensively they’re kind of like Tennesseean in that they’re searching for playmakers and I think that there have been a lot more positive vibes coming out of Tennessee’s offensive. Hey we may have found some things camp for us. And so I’m not sure that Tennessee shouldn’t be favored to win that game in Knoxville. And so that’s if Tennessee wins this this game this week. I think you could see some positive momentum early in the season if they lose the game like a lot of people were saying I could see this team going to six and having to make a bowl game. And so I really do think that this game and the Florida game are the two biggest swing games of the season and it’s going to determine a whole lot about the makeup of this team. The progress of this game and whether or not this team can can make it to a

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:13:17] So you heard it here first Brad Sheppard says we’re going to blow out West Virginia and then beat Florida.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:13:23] Absolute. Yes.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:13:25] All right.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:13:25] Yes.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:13:25] I thought I got that right.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:13:26] Actually I actually would pick Tennessee to be. I think I’m gonna pick Tennessee to be the if even if if one of those first two scenarios happened in I2C

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:13:38] Ok

 

Brad Shepard: [00:13:38] Gets blown out by West Virginia obviously the things I don’t think forward is that good. I think they’re going to be fine once Imrie Jones it’s floating but he’s not he’s not the quarterback. I mean he’s not even one of the top two quarterbacks. So I just think that they’re kind of fitness square peg into a round hole kind of thing with with Frank Trask and I just don’t see that. I don’t see them starting out so well. Or maybe maybe I’m wrong but that’s that’s I think this is going to be a tough year.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:14:10] Is that the only sort of upset you you are sort of anticipating at this point or do you think South Carolina two or Missouri how you feel

 

Brad Shepard: [00:14:19] Now

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:14:19] On those

 

Brad Shepard: [00:14:21] No I think South Carolina is better than Tennessee. I really like Bentley really like a healthy DeBow Samual. I think that the chances are going to take on the mentality of much champ. I picked them. I just got finished writing a 5000 word SCC preview and a lot of research on it and I really really like South Carolina. This year I think I think Georgia is still going to win the East and I really hate saying that I like South Carolina because I really don’t like much champ and I don’t know that there’s any I don’t I don’t think there’s any longevity any staying power in the in what they’ve built. But I’m like it’s kind of like the Missouri window. I think South Carolina and Missouri could could either one of those names that really kind of break out and have a really good year but then you know once once lock goes pro next year it’s kind of like OK what next it Missouri and and maybe maybe South Carolina I’ve got a couple of year window with with Bentley if he if he comes back next year which I think you will all think he’s a pro prospect Yeah. But you know I like that team a lot better than most. I don’t think that they’re explosive offensively or anything but but I think their defenses are going to be snakey good and I think that they’re probably going to finish second in the east

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:36] So another sneaky reference. You’re feeling very sneaky this evening.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:15:41] What a lot of sneaking around

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:43] Sneakiness

 

Brad Shepard: [00:15:43] In a

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:44] Yeah well that’ll do it for this edition of the game day Iraqi podcast subscribe on iTunes. You can find us at Soundcloud as well. If you’re listening via talk show you what do you do when we’re getting ready to disappear. So make the track make the switch over to soundcloud subscribe via iTunes in that way. You know we just follow you around so you don’t even have to worry about it. So just go do that. Also while you’re at it give us a review. Give us a rating. Bonus points if you say something nice about Brad

 

Brad Shepard: [00:16:24] Yes

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:24] Because

 

Brad Shepard: [00:16:25] Please.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:25] Because we know that’s very difficult. Did you or did you read the transcript that I said that before you didn’t did you.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:16:32] No I didn’t read that.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:33] Yeah. Yeah. You all have to go back and listen to that. I figured you would have heard it because I figured you didn’t hear it because I figured you would have given me a call while you were driving your car after I said that. But anyway

 

Brad Shepard: [00:16:47] No

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:47] So yeah.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:16:47] I need to go see that now

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:50] So subscribe via iTunes. We’re having shorter podcasts this this season is shorter and more frequent two or three a week. We might also have a longer one with the whole gang together. So again just subscribe and we will automatically pop up on your commute to or from work. So for Brad Shepherd I’m Joel Hollingsworth and this has been the game day on Rocky Top podcast. All right

 

Brad Shepard: [00:17:26] All right.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:17:27] So that Long John Silvers kicking in yet.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:17:32] Oh no. But still a lot of people it affects the the other way. Me It just gives me really bad heartburn indigestion. I mean like I’m like really you know every Belchers and stuff.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:17:48] All right well let’s hear it.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:17:50] Makes me feel not very good but it’s not kicked in and I’m open that I really had like a I had like a kid’s meal. I mean because I was really not angry. We went to Nashville this weekend I went to a Taylor Swift concert last night to bring that up because it calls into question my manhood. But my

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:18:07] It’s all right.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:18:07] Boy

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:18:08] I admitted watching it and really liking Hannah Montana. At one point and my kids have never forgotten about it.

 

Brad Shepard: [00:18:17] Yeah it was a really good concert it was it with.

 

Saturday’s West Virginia Showdown is a Major Opportunity for Jeremy Pruitt and the Vols

 

When Jeremy Pruitt opens his mouth, he not only sounds like us; he also says what we want to hear. None of the words are sugarcoated, but they’re honest, laced with the guarded optimism and measured hope of a coach who believes he’s done everything he can to prepare his team to play.

Now, they’ve just got to go out and do it.

We don’t know what to expect from the Vols on Saturday, and none of us know whether that means there’s a quiet confidence around the program or whether Pruitt simply isn’t the type of guy to dish out a lot of excuses.

Either one would be a refreshing change from the previous regime. You never could trust what Butch Jones said, as there was either manufactured-but-tired attempts at swagger or padded statistics and buttered-up “facts” that were really just attempts to lessen the blame for losses before they happened.

How many times — and for how many years in a row — can we be forced to hear about having the “youngest team in …”?

Thankfully, those days are over, and we can all pull for Pruitt if for no other reason than he’s the anti-Jones. But the true definition of whether he’ll be beloved or bemoaned is what his team does on the field, the positions his players are in to make plays, the development of those guys, the game plan and execution of it and, ultimately, wins and losses.

Saturday is an opportunity. Of course, every game is. But Saturday is a chance for Pruitt to get a signature win in his first-ever game as a head coach. It’s not like the Vols are playing a powerhouse program that looks like, on paper, it will boat-race them. This Mountaineers team’s best win a year ago was against an up-and-down Iowa State.

They lost to Virginia Tech (31-24), TCU (31-24), Oklahoma State (50-39), Texas (28-14), Oklahoma (59-31) and Utah (30-14). The last three losses came with star quarterback Will Grier out after he injured his throwing hand against the Longhorns. But the first three losses (and part of that Texas setback) came with him at the helm.

This isn’t a juggernaut.

The wins came over East Carolina (56-20), Delaware State (59-16), Kansas (56-34), Texas Tech (46-35), Baylor (38-36), Iowa State (20-16) and Kansas State (28-23). Woof.

We know what the ‘Eers will bring to the table with a stable of able receivers, led by senior David Sills V and quarterback Grier, who last crushed out souls in the Gators’ comeback win in 2015 that was capped by his 4th-and-14 completion for a touchdown. We know he’s good, but we know what’s coming.

West Virginia doesn’t. And coach Dana Holgorsen has been conjuring up whiny excuses all week from lamenting that Tennessee has had more practice time than the ‘Eers to making petty comments about all the “or’s” on Pruitt’s depth chart. It sounds familiar, almost like the Butch Jones School of Manufacturing Reasons Why I May Lose. I’m not suggesting WVU is going to lose this game, but I also don’t think the Mountaineers have any idea what team is going to trot out in orange and white Saturday.

Listen: Maybe the Vols are going to be putrid. After all, we’re coming off the worst season in school history where Jones’ team lost eight games for the first time in the storied history of the program. Even during the dark days of the past decade and the many losing seasons the Vols have suffered in recent years, nothing was worse than 2017. The entire team quit, nothing looked right and by the end of the year, UT wasn’t even competitive with Missouri and Vanderbilt.

It’s very easy to get lulled into the thought that Pruitt isn’t a miracle worker, and it’s still going to be bad.

He may not be a miracle worker, but he is a worker. The Vols have taken on a workman’s mentality, and the team responded. It’s interesting, to say the least, that Pruitt back in the spring poor-mouthed his team, talked about how poorly they were practicing and rarely mentioned anything positive about individuals or the team as a whole. The tone shifted since then. Either the public relations team got a hold of him and informed him that wasn’t a way to sell tickets, or things got better.

Pruitt doesn’t seem like the type of coach who dashes fairy dust and frolics while tossing around roses and preaching of rainbows and unicorns. That’s not what he learned growing up and playing ball in Rainsville, Alabama, that’s not the atmosphere he was around Boots Donnely at MTSU or Gene Stallings in his playing days at Alabama, and that’s not what he’s shown throughout his days coaching for high school legends like Rush Propst and college legends like Nick Saban and Mark Richt.

It seems like he thinks he’s got something, and even though it may not be a championship-caliber team, it could be one that has listened, responded and improved. Sometimes, a team needs a jolt of belief and a change of scenery, and that’s exactly what happened in Knoxville. Rather than the mass exodus of players many predicted from the cushy world of Jones to the structured tenure of Pruitt, there have been just a handful of guys leave from last year.

Most stayed, and several of those guys left for dead are primed and poised to make a difference Saturday. The resurrection of Jonathan Kongbo’s career must be fully realized with an impact in a game, but he’s shown flashes. Kyle Phillips and Shy Tuttle have looked better, and Baylen Buchanan is a no-doubt starter against the ‘Eers. Drew Richmond won a job this summer, and other players who failed to live up to expectations are emerging, too.

Can everything come together? It has to now if it’s going to. It’s time right now. Unfortunately for the Vols, they don’t get a warm-up game. One of the two biggest swing games for the entire season happens this weekend, and the other one (Florida) comes September 23. Win those two games, and it’s the difference between a possible 4-4 start with a chance to run the table and a 2-6 flop where everything must go right with questions swirling around the disappointment.

The margin for error is slim. But that’s the state of the program, the fear of the fan base and the truth of the schedule.

An awful season this year is not necessarily a red flag, and neither is a clunker of a game on Saturday. Many pundits are predicting both of those things, anyway.

But this weekend’s season opener is a chance to prove all those things wrong. This isn’t Oregon or Oklahoma, a national championship contender without weaknesses. This is a team with a very suspect defense that is relying on graduate transfers up front and a running game with an unproven (but talented) starter in Kennedy McCoy. The passing game is dynamic and among the best in the nation, and the Vols have concerns rushing the passer and in the secondary, but the latter is Pruitt’s speciality, and they have some talented young guys on the back level.

There are plenty more question marks for the Vols, but it isn’t like the Mountaineers don’t have their share, too.

Nobody knows how this matchup is going to shake out. It feels a little bit like the 2006 season-opening win over ninth-ranked California or bowl games against Northwestern and Iowa where there is such a contrast of styles that few know how it’ll actually materialize between the lines. On paper, West Virginia looks like the winner, but that’s against a disappointing UT from 2017 that may or may not show up.

The Mountaineers are 17th nationally coming off a 7-6 season from a year ago. As we’ve mentioned, that record is tainted by Grier’s injury, but they also weren’t the ’85 Bears before he got hurt, either.

The Vols fired their entire coaching staff, and more than 30 new players have suited up for them since a spring session that saw Pruitt get — and stay — salty.

It may seem like a long shot for Tennessee to win this game, but the unknowns surrounding this team feel a little like they’re being underrated nationally. Is that wishful thinking? Sure, maybe. But it’s also a major opportunity for Pruitt’s rebuild to get a massive early jolt.

Vols-Mountaineers: Comparing the starters, head-to-head

There’s been a lot of talk this offseason about the current level of talent on Tennessee’s roster. Much of the reason for the discussion is borne out of the discrepancy between the recruiting rankings — Tennessee’s as a team and many of the Vols players’ individual rankings — and the actual performance on the field the past several years. The reason for the renewed interest is rooted in the hope and/or belief that the rankings weren’t as wrong as they seemed to be and that Jeremy Pruitt and his staff can finally teach the players what they need to know and coach them into their full potential on the field.

This argument has a strong gravitational pull because so many of Tennessee’s key players sported excellent rankings when they arrived on campus. If those numbers had a reasonable degree of accuracy, and if Pruitt can coach them to their potential, they should be able to hold their own against most opponents.

With Tennessee’s first depth chart of 2018 released yesterday, here’s a look at the expected talent level (and experience level) of each of Tennesse’s starters compared to that of West Virginia’s. Where the depth chart punted on a starter and bracketed more than one player into a single starting spot, we made an educated guess.

Head-to-head Tennessee-West Virginia starter chart, with recruiting rankings and current experience

Notes and observations:

  • Based only on recruiting rankings, Tennessee has some degree of advantage at every level on both offense and defense.
  • The biggest difference when comparing recruiting rankings comes when you compare Tennessee’s defensive line to West Virginia’s offensive line. Shy Tuttle and Kyle Phillips came to Tennessee with tremendous potential, and the Mountaineers OL were all primarily 3-star recruits.
  • The smallest advantage for Tennessee in potential talent is found at the second level when Tennessee’s on offense with 3-star Vols running back Tim Jordan going against an ‘Eers linebacking corps made up of fellow 3-stars.
  • If you were expecting a disadvantage in incoming talent perceptions for the Vols’ secondary compared to West Virginia’s passing attack, you’re not alone. But there’s talent in Tennessee’s secondary, with safeties Nigel Warrior and Micah Abernathy and cornerback Alontae Taylor all coming to Tennessee with four stars. West Virginia quarterback Will Grier was a high 4-star coming out of high school, but his receiving corps is made up of 3-star guys.
  • That final note, of course, drives home the point that things can change once guys get to campus. To date, most of Tennessee’s players have not lived up to their potential, and the Mountaineers’ passing game has become a 5-star threat all around. Grier is a Heisman-contender. Sills was a Biletnikoff Award finalist last year. Abernathy had to fight for his starting spot this fall, and Taylor is a true freshman. Performance always trumps promise, although as Vols fans, we’d rather have promise than not.

Here’s a quick look at all of the starters this weekend, sorted by 247 Composite score, an incoming ranking:

Notes and observations:

  • Tennessee’s Trey Smith is not the guy who was most-highly rated coming out of high school. That would be Mountaineers nose tackle Kenney Bigelow, a high 5-star recruit who was the nation’s ninth-best player in the Class of 2013.
  • Tennessee has 18 of the 21 top-ranked players; West Virginia only 3.

Again, we believe in recruiting rankings, as it has been proven time and time again that the best college football teams in the standings at the end of the season are the same ones at the top of the recruiting standings in February. But we also know that while recruiting well is necessary to winning, it is not sufficient. The incoming talent must be developed, and at this point, you would have to concede that the West Virginia coaching staff has done a better job with their guys than the prior regime at Tennessee did with theirs.

But it does appear that the new Vols staff has the right raw material to mold, and if they are good at development, then it is not unreasonable for Vols fans to believe that the road back to relevancy might not be as long as we fear. What we see on Satrday will be the first evidence of whether we’ll be able to continue to believe in that theory for long.

Tennessee Vols depth chart for West Virginia

Jeremy Pruitt has released his first depth chart, but it’s pretty much just a codification of continuing mysteries:

Quarterback

  1. Jarrett Guarantano / Keller Chryst
  3. Will McBride
  4. JT Shrout

Running back

  1. Tim Jordan / Ty Chandler / Madre London
  4. Jeremy Banks

Wide receiver

  1. Josh Palmer / Jauan Jennings

Wide receiver

  1. Marquez Callaway
  2. Tyler Byrd
  3. Cedric Tillman

Wide receiver

  1. Brandon Johnson
  2. Jordan Murphy

Tight end

  1. Dominick Wood-Anderson / Eli Wolf / Austin Pope

Left tackle

  1. Trey Smith
  2. Nathan Niehaus

Left guard

  1. Jahmir Johnson / Riley Locklear
  3. K’Rojhn Calbert

Center

  1. Brandon Kennedy
  2. Ryan Johnson

Right guard

  1. Ryan Johnson / Jerome Carvin
  3. Riley Locklear

Right tackle

  1. Drew Richmond / Marcus Tatum / Chance Hall

Defensive end

  1. Kyle Phillips
  2. Paul Bain

Defensive end

  1. Alexis Johnson
  2. Kingston Harris

Nose tackle

  1. Shy Tuttle
  2. Emmit Gooden

Outside linebacker – JACK

  1. Jonathan Kongbo
  2. Deandre Johnson

Outside linebacker – SAM

  1. Darrell Taylor
  2. Austin Smith
  3. Jordan Allen

Inside linebacker – MIKE

  1. Daniel Bituli
  2. Will Ignont

Inside linebacker – WILL

  1. Darrin Kirkland Jr. / Quart’e Sapp
  3. Dillon Bates

Cornerback

  1. Alontae Taylor / Bryce Thompson
  2. Carlin Fils-aime

Cornerback

  1. Baylen Buchanan
  2. Marquill Osborne
  3. D.J. Henderson

Safety

  1. Nigel Warrior
  2. Shawn Shamburger
  3. Todd Kelly Jr.

Safety

  1. Micah Abernathy
  2. Trevon Flowers
  3. Theo Jackson

Kicker

  1. Brent Cimaglia
  2. Laszlo Toser

Punter

  1. Joe Doyle / Paxton Brooks

Long snapper

  1. Riley Lovingood / Elijah Medford

The Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast: Most expected outcomes for Tennessee-West Virginia

Notes

[00:15:43]
Yeah. I meant “shorter,” not “fewer.” D’oh.

 

 

Transcript

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:02] This is the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast, I’m Joel Hollingsworth. And I’m with Wil Shelton this evening. How are you doing Will.

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:09] I’m doing great. This is the best time of year. How are you.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:12] This IS THE BEST TIME OF YEAR. I’m I’m very well. I wanted to ask you one question What is the last thing that you ate.

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:19] What is the last thing that I ate.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:20] The last thing

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:21] I

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:21] The

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:21] Had I had some frozen grapes about five minutes ago the really good

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:26] You know frozen grapes are really under under appreciated because grapes are good by themselves but you

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:33] Yes

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:34] Freeze those babies. Good stuff.

 

Will Shelton: [00:00:36] Yes they’re very good. I broke it tooth off on a frozen grape once where I had a cavity and I didn’t realize it. So the fact that I still eat them despite a catastrophic event in my mouth about 10 years ago on a frozen grape is the best advertisement I can give. Best endorsement I could give to frozen grapes.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:53] Very good. Are you with the red grape persuasion or the White slash green

 

Will Shelton: [00:01:01] I don’t do the white slash Green. Frozen. I like I prefer the white slash green on the unfrozen grape. But for a good frozen grape you need the red

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:11] Ok.

 

Will Shelton: [00:01:11] Is my

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:12] All right well that’s like just like your opinion man.

 

Will Shelton: [00:01:17] Yeah right

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:19] All right. So vol stuff I wanted to ask. This is going to be a quickie podcast. So I wanted to ask what you thought your most realistic expectation for the upcoming West Virginia game is and if that doesn’t make sense. Let me explain mine real quick. I think that after I looked at the stats that I think the 10 or the nine and a half to ten and a half line is maybe a little bit high. I know that if you’re just looking at stats from last year you got real problems because you know that was last year but I think we’re going to be a little bit better. And I think West Virginia is going to be a little bit better because their stats are based on three games without will Greer. But on balance I think that it’s not going to be that much different or I don’t have a lot of reason to think there’s going to be a lot different. So my stats machine says between three and four OK. So my most realistic expectation for the game is that West Virginia wins by three or four. But I also think that because they’re so powerful on offense and especially in the passing game that if they identify a weakness and exploit it over and over again they could run away with it. So that’s my second most realistic expectation. But because it’s only three or four points. I also think that Tennessee could actually steal a close one too. So my top three in sort of expectations for the game. Least surprising outcomes is that West Virginia wins by 3 or 4 1 2 that they run away with it and three that Tennessee pulls out a close one. So those are my three what what would be your top 1 and what are sort of your backup plans as far as expected outcomes.

 

Will Shelton: [00:03:21] All right. Let me give it to you with a little less data there. The outcome I expect most is we come out of the West Virginia game thinking Tennessee is going to have an opportunity to beat Florida. Whether that is via you know certainly if we beat West Virginia I have no problem thinking we’re going to be Florida. But I expect Tennessee is a good goal for this game state Tennessee to play well enough that we come out of this thing thinking. All right. In a couple of weeks we can give this thing a run for its money against a little lighter competition at home et cetera et cetera. So I think that’s I think that’s number one. I will say on the on the stats front the updated S&P rankings Bill Connelly the SB Nation also have West Virginia down to like four and a half.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:12] Oh, cool.

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:13] That’s a big jump from 10. Tennessee got a boost from guessing here. I know he got a boost. I’m guessing the boost comes from Brandon Kennedy’s insertion as a transfer some of West Virginia loss. Those kinds of things so

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:29] And foot

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:29] That

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:29] And mouth

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:29] Number was

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:30] Disease that’s got to be worth

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:31] Right

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:31] A couple of points.

 

Will Shelton: [00:04:32] Fred right. It’s worth at least two tenths of a point. So you know that is encouraging to me. I said this on the radio on Friday. When you when we try it out there. Hey none of the advanced models like West Virginia as much as the eye test. Let’s remember first of all the eye test loves West Virginia because they’re so much fun to watch. You know like of course we love West like they’re super fun to watch. So yeah they’re naturally going to be overrated in that sense. But if you’re going to throw advance stats in the mix yes advanced stats don’t like West Virginia as much as human polls and the tests do. But advanced stats really hate Tennessee. So you know you have to you have to kind of balances things out because what’s going into those bad stats is all those games last fall that Tennessee played that we did care about the outcome after South Carolina but the computers don’t care that we had moved on from Butch Jones who were more worried about our head coach. They’re using all that data to say hey Tennessee was terrible and all that’s going in the machine. So you got to kind of take both sides of that. So I think I would expect Tennessee to play well enough that we feel good about Florida.

 

Will Shelton: [00:05:41] I would I would still I don’t know if I’m just getting old or what it is but like this is the first year where I’ve still got six days here but I haven’t added on a win like I’ve thought we were 6 and 6 in April. And this is August 26 and I think we’re probably six and 6. So I’ve been about three out of 10 on West Virginia which is to say I think if they play it ten times I think we win three maybe three and a half. And I think you take those you know like that’s that’s thought. I’m happy to know because if you’re taking three and a half that’s essentially saying if we play it three times we win one. So you know I think that’s that’s a good spot for Tennessee to be in. So I would say we can’t we can’t talk ourselves into so much year where we get disappointed with a good performance in this game if it doesn’t end up in victory. But I will say there’s just a nice little you know it will be a lot of fun to win on Saturday. It would be a nice cozy little victory without any any attachments of yeah but or.

 

Will Shelton: [00:06:48] Well we won this game but we’ve already lost three others that we shouldn’t loss or that sort of stuff. So I think those two things for sure. And then I think just we will learn a lot about. I think Tennessee’s relative strengths and some of their relative weaknesses. For instance if Tennessee really wants to run the ball 60 65 times in this game and just line it up and go they you know they’re going to have opportunities to do that against West Virginia that they won’t against Florida. How many times will they actually just say you know what let’s just light up and go let’s go right at them and see if they can stop it. If Tennessee is legitimately bad in the passing game here and they just can’t cover West Virginia man to man they can’t get pressure on the quarterback that sort of stuff. I think that’s a relative weakness but it may not be an overall weakness because we’re not going to see the sort of passing game again for a while. So even if you know on the one hand if Tennessee runs for like four hundred fifty yards I don’t know that that means that we’ll run for 450 yards against Florida. And if we get house in the passing game and we think oh no Alontae Taylor’s terrible and all this other stuff I don’t know that that means that he actually is it may just be West Virginia is really good.

 

Will Shelton: [00:08:03] So there will be even if he wins and rolls via the ground game that may not be a huge sign of things to come and if West Virginia rolls and rolls US up through the air that may not be a huge sign of things to come. So I think there are there’s just a lot of unique qualities about this particular game where you know winning or losing. You never want to do with the first game anyway. But I think winning or losing. You don’t want to lean too much on it. So I think those are kind of I don’t know if that answers your question but those are kind of the three things I think the most Tennesse is going to play well enough that we come out of it feeling good about our chances against Florida. I would I would say Tennessee wins this game 3 3 out of 10 times. And I think we may see some relative strengths and some relative weaknesses but I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. You know going forward from here

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:08:54] Yeah I was going to ask. Although I think you just answered it but maybe a little more ambiguously. Let me let me ask that go ahead and ask the second question which was going to be supposed that Tennesse only loses by three or four or that maybe even a win. What sort of impact does that have on the rest of the season. I know you just said you don’t want to put too much stock in the one game you don’t know that it might mean anything against Florida but does it change your overall expectation for the entire season very much does it does it just the sort of general feel of confidence. Does that do anything for you the rest of the season.

 

Will Shelton: [00:09:38] I think it would do a couple of things. If Tennessee wins. First of all winning against West Virginia creates the expectation that you will go to a bowl game. It would move from the hope to the expectation for one reason because you’re already one to know at that point you’ve got one you know you’re going to get three against easiest you use happen and Charlotte. So that’s for now you’re just talking about OK if we to be Kentucky and Vanderbilt we’re six and six. So a Tennessee beats West Virginia. Then the expectation becomes going into a bowl game

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] And

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] Because

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] If

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] I

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] You

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] Mean

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] Can

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] You

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] Beat

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] Just think

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:10] West

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:10] About

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:11] Virginia you think you should be able to be Vandy and Kentucky right.

 

Will Shelton: [00:10:14] Yeah I mean that would be really disappointing right. Barring catastrophic injuries which Lord knows we’ve seen them but that would be really disappointing to beat West Virginia and still finish five and seven. I mean something something really bad has has to happen there. That would mean one in seven in the SEC if ifs or some sort of unforeseen disaster against YouTube or Charlotte or ETSU. If you beat West Virginia and don’t go to a bowl your one in seven in the SCC. So that’s that’s no good. You know we should just said it’s a piece inside here to say if Tennessee wins again like I say it would be the sort of celebration that we haven’t seen around here in in the Florida win in 2016 would certainly be bigger than Georgia when the way it ended bigger. But I think you’d have to go back to Butch’s first year against South Carolina to find that sort of a win like that made you say like hey this is going to work. You know before there were strings attached to it or negative perceptions or anything like that. So just to sort of win that you could totally enjoy without having to factory and all the other stuff. It’s

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:11:24] Yeah.

 

Will Shelton: [00:11:25] Been a minute for that. And you got to go back to Butch’s first year good South Carolina which ultimately didn’t stand up. Kiffin against Georgia. That first year ultimately didn’t stand up because Kiffin left. You know it’s it’s it’s been a long time since something like that.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:11:41] Right.

 

Will Shelton: [00:11:41] And you could still have. Again I’ve made this point several times that people Kirby Smart. They beat North Carolina in Week 1 in his first year in Atlanta was a huge win. It was not a pretty game but it was a big sort of initial win for them that North Carolina seems not as good as this West Virginia at all. But winning that game helped them manage losing to Vanderbilt later in the year. That was part of part of the process. They were seven and five. You know but they got that first one they got off that momentum. So you know Georgia hasn’t been through nearly what we’ve been through the last year years so there will be a whole separate thing there. That winning would do. But I do think this too about playing close this. It feels a little bit to me like the 2014 Oklahoma game at Oklahoma where I think Tennessee was like a 19 point underdog in that game or something like that and actually lost by 24 was a late score. That made it 34 to 10. But I remember most of those coming out of that game and I wrote about ourselves you know Tennessee was competitive in that game for about three quarters.

 

Will Shelton: [00:12:51] There was there was a costly drop or an interception in the end zone in that game. I don’t I don’t. Maybe just Jason Croom was involved on that play. I can’t remember exactly what happened but we had a shot in the endzone that didn’t work out where the game could have been closer or something like that. But I remember coming out of that Oklahoma game and thinking OK we can we can do some damage as you were going to be good and that’s a game we lost by 24. Now that Oklahoma team again not a one to one comparison they were much better than his West Virginia team should be but if Tennessee loses by 9 in this game again I think we’re going to come out of it saying OK we can we can beat Florida 1 and 2 we can we can we can invest in this team. We can watch this team maybe not against Alabama but we can watch that same week to week with the expectation that they’re going to have a chance to win. So I think those are the things that that a close game even if you don’t win a close game will provide you with those sorts of things.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:13:52] Yeah it not only would be a big win if we won or sort of you know. Nobody likes the term moral victory. But you know some validation it wouldn’t just be a big win if it happened. It would also be validation of the hope you know that we’re wanting to put in to prove that oh we made the right decision and we can expect good things. Maybe not against Florida this year or whatever but we can expect good things over the next couple of years that that will be a big thing. So anything you want to add to that for I cut you loose.

 

Will Shelton: [00:14:32] No I think it’s again. I feel like I have been more level we should all be you know now by now after all these coaching changes and all this I don’t I don’t feel like this is again the line is going to have roots in people that are totally unbiased. S&P like say he’s got it down to four and a half. I mean this isn’t crazy talk. It’s hey we’re going to go play a team that were between four and a half and ten points an underdog to on a neutral field with a brand new coach who knows what’s going to happen but I think there’s enough possibility that this isn’t this isn’t crazy talk is not grasping at straws it’s a like saying you played 10 times I think he went three and you hope that Saturday turns into turns into one of those three.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:15] All right well that’ll do it for this edition of the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. Follow us Subscribe via iTunes or soundcloud. Give us a rating. Give us a review. Bonus points for using the word room Mamma Mia. I don’t know. I just was in the mood to give bonus points and I

 

Will Shelton: [00:15:38] Sure.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:39] And I started down that road before I thought it out. So

 

Will Shelton: [00:15:42] That’s right.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:43] Mamma Mia it is. You use the word Mamma Mia. You get bonus points is like Whose Line Is It Anyway. Know the points don’t matter. But hey there they are. So anyway. That’ll do it. We will have actually a another podcast or two. This week we’re going to be doing fewer but more often and the next one will be with Brad probably go live on Tuesday or Wednesday so stick around for that subscribe. Be sure to read all week we’re into game mode starting tomorrow morning Monday morning and hope you have a great evening. Think I’ll do a different. I wonder how many how many season tickets Dave Ramsey has canceled just on his own because you

 

Will Shelton: [00:16:30] Should

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:30] Can’t

 

Will Shelton: [00:16:30] Have

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:30] Put you can’t put him on the credit card.

 

Will Shelton: [00:16:33] Threat should have should have asked him that. But I’ve met him a couple of times I should have asked him either of those times. But alas it has not has not worked out. So.

 

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:42] Yeah how many lives has he ruined. Yeah.

 

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Last year, we started talking about expectations for the Tennessee Volunteers football team in a different way. Rather than just look at the schedule and assign each game a W or an L, we assigned each game a confidence level as a percentage. A certain win was 100%, a certain loss was 0%, and a toss-up hovered somewhere around 50%. Calculating those out gave us what we believe is a better look at what we really expect the team’s final record to be at the end of the season.

Each game week in this space, we’ll monitor the impact of the prior week on our expectations for the rest of the season. How did Tennessee look? How do its prior wins and losses look now in light of how their past opponents did the prior weekend? How does the future look in light of how the Vols’ future opponents did? And how does all of that impact our expectations for the team’s final record?

Of course, we have no prior week to work with at this point, so we’re just going to benchmark our expectations heading into the season, acknowledging first that this season is a vast expanse of the unknown due to the all-new coaching staff.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Use the form below to submit your data and get your answer.

Joel’s results and expectations

I’m at 5.9 wins. Here’s how I feel about each game, with space between the order of the games to help show relative confidence level of each game at this point:

My preliminary thoughts about each game are below. Leave yours in the comment section.

West Virginia Mountaineers

I’m putting this at 40%. The line has been 9.5-10.5 most of the preseason, but my numbers are showing somewhere between 3-4 instead. That’s based on last season’s numbers, of course, which aren’t especially reliable. But I think we’ll be better. West Virginia will be better as well, but I think it mostly balances out, so I’m rolling with my numbers at this point.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers, UTEP Miners, Charlotte 49ers

I have all of these at 95%. The Vols really shouldn’t have any problem with either of these teams.

Florida Gators

I have this one at 45% right now. This is based on a hope bordering on belief that Jeremy Pruitt will eliminate fluky losses to the Gators.

Georgia Bulldogs, Auburn Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide

These guys are all just too good for the Vols right now. Among the three, I have Alabama as the most difficult and Georgia as the least.

South Carolina Gamecocks

I think the Gamecocks are going to be a little more difficult than the Gators this year, so I have this one at 40%.

Kentucky Wildcats, Missouri Tigers, Vanderbilt Commodores

I have all of these as toss ups right now. I’m most fearful of Missouri.

What about you? What are your numbers, what’s your expected win total, and why?

Every Season Tells a Story

For a few of us, the 2018 season kicked over the weekend (Duquesne at UMass baby!). For the rest of us, now it’s game week: everyone’s undefeated, and everyone can dream.

Tennessee’s dreams have been some combination of strange and brief for a long time now. Standing in the way this fall are a Top 20 opener, annual rivalries with the present-and-perhaps-future kings of college football, and the annoying habit of drawing one of the best teams from the SEC West that isn’t Alabama. All of this on the heels of the program’s first eight-loss season and, even more, the worst S&P+ rating of any SEC team when it made its most recent coaching change. Another dream might meet another quick death this fall. The potential for adding another year on that tab might make us wonder if it’s healthy to dream at all.

Along those lines, the last ten years have made me less attached to the head coach, though I’m not sure one can totally escape such attachments no matter where you fall on the spectrum from fan to fanatic. For me it’s one part self-preservation: Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, and Butch Jones were all exhausting to defend in their own ways.

But at the same time, what has given me the most comfort and confidence in the last nine months is the presence of Phillip Fulmer. He is, for sure, a coach I was incredibly attached to in all of our younger days. But it’s also because of something I remember most from when those days came to an end:

(from November 3, 2008 at SouthEastern Sports Blog)

Doug Matthews was on Sports Talk earlier today, and made this point: Nick Saban is a fantastic coach, but he’s not personally invested in the University of Alabama the way that Phillip Fulmer was and is invested in the University of Tennessee. Not even close.

Urban Meyer’s not. Neither is Les Miles or Mark Richt.

And the next man who comes in here won’t be either.

Meyer and Miles have won National Championships. And we absolutely hope whoever comes in here next will do the same.

But what we gave away today we won’t find again.

Butch Jones and Lane Kiffin were from somewhere else, Derek Dooley the son of Georgia royalty. Jeremy Pruitt is from the opposite of here.

But there remains no one more personally invested in Tennessee Football than the person who hired him.

There are never any guarantees; we already asked Fulmer to leave once. But as the Vols lost both games and trust in record numbers last fall, he was the only choice, and in all the right ways. I don’t know if or when the Vols will get back to winning like the 1990’s again. But I do find it easier to trust something good is possible with someone so personally invested back in the decision-making chair. That much of what we lost is found again. And it’s valuable, at least to me.

We do all this every year because we love the Vols. Even when they don’t win. But now it’s a little easier to have faith, or at least it feels a little more right. And Fulmer hired hope, an unproven risk/reward coach even though safe and easy options were on the board. The ultimate goal hasn’t changed for us, because it certainly hasn’t changed for him. And it’s one Pruitt knows quite well as an assistant coach.

All of that is down the road, but we can dream its dream. This is Week One. This week we don’t have to worry about how long we’ve been gone. This week everything is new, just as it feels the right kind of old.

And this week is about all of us pulling in the same direction, something we haven’t enjoyed for more than a few short weeks in a very long time. I don’t know how far Jeremy Pruitt and the 2018 Vols will go this fall. He’ll earn some level of trust along the way. But after a season when the rope slipped through our fingers faster than ever, then threatened to unravel entirely? Now we get a chance to pick it back up again, together in more than name only. This is the week to grab the rope. Set your feet. And by God pull.

It’s here.

This week, in Charlotte, in Knoxville, and wherever you listen…it’s football time in Tennessee.

Mistakes will be made. What will they cost?

If you’ve ever devoted much time to reading business/management/self-improvement books, you’ve probably heard the story about the IBM employee who feared he was going to be terminated after making a mistake that cost the company several million dollars. His boss told him that there was no way they were going to fire him now because they had just spent several million dollars educating him.

Whether that actually happened, I don’t know, and it’s probably worth pointing out that the guy to whom this is usually attributed is former IBM CEO Tom Watson, who reportedly also once said that the world only needed five computers. Reports that he actually said that are also dubious, by the way.

Regardless, the reason the story is often repeated in business and management circles is that it drives home an undeniable truth: Mistakes can be valuable because of the education and experience they create.

Mistakes, investments, and goodwill accounts

The trick, of course, is to make sure that the mistake-maker actually leverages his blunder into useful experience and that he achieves and then maintains a positive ledger before his time runs out and his account of goodwill runs dry.

College football coaches are well acquainted with this notion. If progress and success are deposits stored up with their bosses and fans, then mistakes (and losses generally, over time) are withdrawals. Withdrawals can be the equivalent of a little spending money or they can be major catastrophes to the balance of the account. Spend more than you have, and you’re overdrawn. No coach can remain overdrawn for long, no matter the size of his opening balance.

Tennessee football is in a rebuilding phase, and in that sense, it’s kind of like a startup, flush with stacks of crisp new $100 bills. In essence, Jeremy Pruitt begins his Tennessee tenure with a generous loan. The opening balance funds the “honeymoon” period, and the expectation is that he will make more withdrawals than deposits for some period of time.

Goodwill management

Pruitt’s primary goal for the immediate future, then, is to manage his stash of investment goodwill well. He’ll have some opportunities to increase his balance by having his team do well, and if he can capitalize on those opportunities, it will be good for everyone involved.

But mostly, he’s going to be on a bit of a spending spree for a while, and he’ll have to make the most of it. With a tough year looming, he can spend what he needs to, but he can’t burn through it like a prodigal lottery winner with a few hundred new friends.

Mistake management

As a brand new head coach in the SEC, Pruitt’s going to make some mistakes this year.

As a weary fan base, so will we.

What all of that costs depends largely on how well those mistakes are managed.

Football seasons are funny things. We fans tell ourselves before the season begins, when the numbers are sterile and devoid of emotion and pain, that a six-loss season is a reasonable goal. We tell ourselves that we expect mistakes to be made and that it’s just part of the process that we’re prepared to endure for a while.

And then we actually witness those mistakes in all of their gory glory while in a heightened state of emotion, and logic and reason fly out the window as quickly as regrettable words fly out of our mouths. It’s one thing to predict just one more L in the win/loss column. It’s another thing entirely to watch a rival receiver get behind the entire defense to grab a game-winning, 63-yard touchdown pass with 9 seconds left in a tie game. The letter “L” doesn’t make you raise your voice. Watching your team gift wrap a miracle to a hated rival — again! — will make you scream bloody murder.

Jeremy Pruitt’s job this fall is not to make no mistakes. He’s a new head coach with a steep learning curve ahead of him, and he’s going to do some things that cause us pain.

What he does need to do, though, is minimize his mistakes and learn from the ones he makes.

As fans, our support for Pruitt need not be unconditional. We don’t need to give him a free pass for his mistakes, and we aren’t expected to endure forever mistakes that are never leveraged into education, experience, and, in due time, success.

But the temptation to overcharge, to price-gouge Pruitt’s goodwill account in the emotional aftermath of an early mistake or two is coming, and we would be wise to resist it.

2018 Gameday on Rocky Top Picks Contest

It’s back and better than ever: the 2018 Gameday on Rocky Top Picks Contest is now open. As always, we’re using our friends at Fun Office Pools: we pick 20 games each week (straight up) using confidence points, where you place 20 points on the outcome you’re most confident in, one point on the outcome you’re least confident in, etc. Weekly winners get a free Gameday on Rocky Top t-shirt; the regular season champ gets pride, plus a free Gameday on Rocky Top hoodie.

NEW THIS YEAR: the games are listed with the latest weekend kickoff first, which means if you forget to pick the Thursday night game it only costs you one point instead of 20. My apologies that it took us having a baby last fall to realize how ridiculous that punishment used to be.

If you’ve played in one of our pools before, you should’ve received an email with sign-up instructions. You can also click here to sign up! Any questions, fire away in the comments below.

Here’s our Week 1 slate!

Thursday, August 30

  • Northwestern at Purdue – 8:00 PM – ESPN

Friday, August 31

  • Army at Duke – 7:00 PM – ESPNU
  • Western Kentucky at #4 Wisconsin – 9:00 PM – ESPN
  • San Diego State at #13 Stanford – 9:00 PM – Fox Sports 1

Saturday, September 1

  • Florida Atlantic at #7 Oklahoma – 12:00 PM – FOX
  • Ole Miss vs Texas Tech (Houston) – 12:00 PM – ESPN
  • #23 Texas at Maryland – 12:00 PM – Fox Sports 1
  • Tennessee vs #17 West Virginia (Charlotte) – 3:30 PM – CBS
  • #6 Washington vs #9 Auburn (Atlanta) – 3:30 PM – ABC
  • Appalachian State at #10 Penn State – 3:30 PM – Big Ten Network
  • Central Michigan at Kentucky – 3:30 PM – ESPNU
  • Washington State at Wyoming – 3:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
  • #22 Boise State at Troy – 6:00 PM – ESPNEWS
  • Cincinnati at UCLA – 7:00 PM – ESPN
  • #14 Michigan at #12 Notre Dame – 7:30 PM – NBC
  • Middle Tennessee at Vanderbilt – 7:30 PM – SEC Network
  • #1 Alabama vs Louisville (Orlando) – 8:00 PM – ABC
  • BYU at Arizona – 10:45 PM – ESPN

Sunday, September 2

  • #8 Miami vs #25 LSU (Dallas) – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 3

  • #20 Virginia Tech at #19 Florida State – 8:00 PM – ESPN

 

Tennessee Shores Up Offensive Line of the Future With Melvin McBride Commitment

With spots filling up quickly and some big-name targets remaining on the board, Tennessee can afford to be selective with the last few players it takes in this year’s recruiting class.

That alone should tell you what the coaching staff thinks of Melvin McBride, a 6’4″, 315-pound projected offensive guard from Whitehaven HS in Memphis who pledged to UT over Arkansas, Memphis, Louisville and others on Wednesday.

The Vols already have commitments from 5-star offensive tackle Wanya Morris, 4-star offensive guard/tackle Jackson Lampley and 3-star guard Chris Akporoghene — and they’re right at the top of the list for 5-star tackle Darnell Wright with Alabama. But Pruitt has been upgraded Tennessee’s size in the trenches since he got here.

And, unlike some of the coaches before him, he knows you never turn down a big body who wants to come to your school, especially one who has crazy upside. McBride’s high school coach told 247Sports’ Steve Wiltfong that McBride is “scary athletic.” The uber-athletic big man can play along the front on either side of the ball, and he is a basketball standout, too.

In other words, he possesses the kind of size and athleticism that you can’t teach, and it’s exactly what you want along the offensive front.

If you’re Pruitt, you take him now and figure out the numbers later. But McBride is definitely a guy you want in this class, especially considering you want and need to have plenty of able bodies up front.

The Vols are already reportedly improving up front with the additions of JUCO tackle Jahmir Johnson and freshman Jerome Carvin. Another freshman, Ollie Lane, could factor into the equation down the road, and the return of Trey Smith, Chance Hall and the transfer of Brandon Kennedy should help with a unit that was awful a year ago.

But if the Vols can close the deal on Wright, this has the potential to be the best O-line class at Tennessee in a long, long time. McBride figured to be headed to Arkansas recently, but a couple of Memphis-area Vols — Carvin and junior offensive tackle Drew Richmond — reportedly talked with McBride deep into the night and convinced him he needed to wear orange and white.

That’s exactly the kind of peer recruiting you need. In that conversation was a first-year guy who has been given the opportunity to prove himself and shone immediately, placing himself firmly in the mix to start (Carvin), a maligned veteran who has struggled at times throughout his career but still looks like the Game 1 starter at one of the tackle spots as he tries to turn around his career (Richmond) and a guy who will fill the void in the future in McBride.

It speaks volumes for the kind of environment Pruitt and offensive line coach Will Friend fostered since arriving on campus.

Yes, UT now has 20 commitments in a class that wasn’t supposed to reach 25, but there’s a long way between now and national signing day. You never know about defections, flips, mutual parting of ways, injuries or other factors. McBride was a big ol’ bird in hand, and he not only gives the Vols a great athletic big man with a huge upside (he’s only played football one season), he helps Pruitt and Co. get in the door of Whitehaven, a powerhouse in West Tennessee.

His coach thinks he’s a steal.

“Extremely athletic for a man that size — actually, scary athletic for a guy that size,” Whitehaven coach Rodney Saulsberry said, according to the Knoxville News-Sentinel‘s Blake Toppmeyer. “Extremely strong, extremely driven and extremely coachable. The kid is a sponge to learning. He wants to get better.”

McBride’s pledge moves Tennessee to No. 10 in the 247Sports Composite rankings, and the Vols are eighth on Rivals.

The Vols need help all over the field in this year’s recruiting cycle, but they have placed a major emphasis on the trenches. McBride is the fourth offensive lineman and the 10th trench man to pledge in this year’s haul.

McBride isn’t the most polished player yet, but he’d be one of the most athletic linemen on UT’s roster. Best of all, he’ll actually have some time to develop like an offensive lineman is supposed to, considering he’s going to be stepping into a situation where UT has some nice-looking young guard prospects like Carvin, K’Rojhn Calbert, Riley Locklear and Ryan Johnson. McBride looks like a definite interior lineman like Akporoghene, and Morris and Lampley could project to tackle.

The Vols are going to have options, and Pruitt has proved so far in spring and fall camps that he wants his guys to learn to play multiple positions so he can always have his best players on the field if there are injuries.

McBride’s athleticism lends itself to future versatility, and while the Razorbacks have come into the state and grabbed a few guys the Vols didn’t prioritize in what is a good year rankings-wise for guys from the Volunteer State, it was good to see Pruitt get a big man he wanted in a head-to-head battle.

The Vols likely are done on the offensive front until Wright makes his decision, and the big man from West Virginia has a spot regardless. It’ll be interesting to see how the final few places in the class shakes out.