Sunday Best: Tennessee vs. Florida; Maybe We Need ‘Here’ To Get There

 

We all know how we got here.

You don’t hire Derek Dooley and Butch Jones in back-to-back searches after Lane Kiffin’s one-and-done and expect any differently. You don’t load up recruiting classes with the layers of players who didn’t pan out in the 2016 and ’17 classes and expect any differently. You don’t keep redefining “rock bottom” as a program every year and expect differently.

Somebody asked me on Twitter if I felt this was finally rock bottom last night as I sat in my Y10 seats and watched the carnage. I said, “No, I think it’s a sublayer.”

In order to enact change, you’ve got to reach a low point.

It isn’t like we’re covering new ground here. It’s been bad for a while, and we all really believed it would probably be bad this year. How bad? Well, we saw last night that it can get ugly, and uglier is coming to a television set near you next week and the in the next few weeks after.

Maybe take a vacation or something if you don’t want to see it. It won’t be pretty.

Caught up in the anger and the frustration of the debacle, I tweeted out that it felt like Tennessee football is dead. Moments later, somebody stormed down the steps furious and said the same thing on his way out. “This program is dead; I’m done. I’m selling all my stuff next week!” he yelled to anybody as he left.

Go on, now. Git. We don’t need you anyway.

Do I think this program is finished? Nah. Do I think last night looked and felt like it? Absolutely. That’s why I typed it.

I love the Vols. You love the Vols. Some of us at times LIVE the Vols. This is intertwined in some of our livelihoods, some of our happiness. When they suck, we have bad days, bad weekends. Those of you who don’t feel that way or don’t let it get to you look at us and laugh or shake your heads. “Get a life,” you think. Some of us have one, but our lives are so much more enriched when the Vols win.

We’ve had a long, frustrating numbness, haven’t we?

By design and in name, this “Sunday Best” column is supposed to be about something good, something positive that happened on Saturday. I’m not going to pump sunshine, though. I felt no goodness out of a 47-21 loss to a bad Florida team. I felt no happiness out of all the turnovers and mistakes. I felt no positive vibes about how the team looked or what players stood out.

It looked like a bad football team and a coaching staff that, at times, got schooled by Florida’s.

But what I did see was an opportunity for the players to get embarrassed, for them to look at the scoreboard, at their body of work on the resume of a football field and say, “You know what? That isn’t good enough.”

Most of the improvement can’t be done by the guys who are now in orange and white. Most of it has to be done by Jeremy Pruitt and Co. in recruiting, a task now tons more difficult by getting destroyed on the field. It’s going to be worse against Georgia, Alabama and probably Auburn, too.

I don’t know the inside information on what happened with linebacker Quart’e Sapp, who reportedly left the field after being asked to go in the game. Pruitt’s postgame press conference shed little light on it, and Sapp came out and tweeted a message to Vol Nation today that he didn’t quit.

I don’t know if there was any animosity or ill will behind Trey Smith’s aggressive warmup that left John Mincey injured and angry as he was leaving the field. I don’t know why this team continually hurts each other (looking at the Shy Tuttle helmet “incident” last year, among other things) and won’t do anything like beat the ever-living mess out of Florida defensive end Cece Jefferson after his malicious cheap hit on Jarrett Guarantano during the game. If that happens to my teammate, I’m getting kicked out of the game.

I don’t know why none of this happened, but the fact that it happened and that the world saw it and the fans saw it may help these Vols look in the mirror and realize the in-fighting, the lack of leadership and the other hallmarks of the Butch Jones era must be completely and decisively eradicated in order for any success to enter.

This program is infected with failure, and you cannot blame Pruitt for that. Whether or not he’s the guy and this is the staff to fix it remains unclear, and, sure, offensive coordinator Tyson Helton and offensive line coach Will Friend need to do better than they’ve done so far. The play-calling seems unimaginative, and if the Vols can’t find any linemen who can block better than these, the rebuild is going to take longer than any of us want. But they also need better players to do better, don’t they? They need years of better strength and conditioning, don’t they?

Sometimes, it looks like these are SEC plays that simply aren’t being executed by SEC players.

You can’t blame the new guys for that. There are plenty of things we can blame them for, but that isn’t one of them. So, stop, aight?

That brings us back to the point about what we saw that was positive about yesterday? Well, while we saw those embarrassing things, I also saw a defense that was ripping balls out, getting in the face of Florida players and getting aggressive. Adding to Jeremy Banks’ alpha personality, we saw Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson show some swagger. Maybe the Vols’ feelings got hurt. Maybe their pride got hurt. Maybe those glimmers were the seeds of a program-altering response.

I wasn’t the only one who saw these things, even though I saw them through hurt, angry eyes.

Are those positives? Will they matter? They certainly didn’t last night. But, as Pruitt said, he’s trying to build something here. There is no foundation because there’s no leadership from upperclassmen. There’s no on-the-field mentors from which these younger guys can learn.

As I was walking out of Neyland Stadium last night, I didn’t hear much, which is not normal. Sure, there were the murmurs and the yells throughout the game, but, afterward, I locked eyes with several people who just gave me a worried head-shake. Others looked down. Still others seemed numb to losing by now. Walking up Highland Avenue, I was behind a kid and, presumably, his dad. The kid was about 12, and he said, “Hey dad, you remember that time when the Vols almost beat Alabama? I wish we could get back to that.”

My heart sank. This is where our program is right now. This is what it’s become. The missteps have been many, and though having Phillip Fulmer in the saddle as athletic director is a major step forward, the university and Board of Trustee leadership isn’t yet in place, and the politics involved in those filled seats will go a long way in determining whether this program ever has the infrastructure and support necessary to be great again.

It takes a village, and, right now, we’re just trying to find a handful of players who can be vocal leaders, build a team, rally some hope.

The 1998 national championship team was honored last night, and by the time they were fully recognized, this year’s Vols already had dug themselves a 20-point hole. “I wonder what Al Wilson thinks about this now?” I thought. I bet he feels much the same way we all do — hurt, sad, embarrassed, disappointed, mad.

I hope the current players do, too. If they don’t, then there won’t be anything good that comes out of Saturday night.

Florida 47 Tennessee 21 – Lost and Found

I don’t know if the Florida series just feels like it’s full of weirdness to us because they’ve won around three-out-of-four times we’ve faced each other since 1990 and, of course, all but one of them since 2004. I think about some of the ways we beat Kentucky over the years, games that felt like the right team winning to us but, I assume, incredibly cruel and unfortunate to them. And I hate that comparison, sharing Kentucky’s past but not their present.

But last night goes on a crowded list with the second half of ’95, first half of ’96, Alex Brown, Jabar Gaffney, fumbled snaps in the rain, Nathan Peterman, and everything that’s gone wrong in the last five years against this team. Tennessee lost a chance for its new coach to write a new chapter in this rivalry, instead taking a well-worn page from the past: Florida wins, something inexplicable happens to Tennessee.

No matter who you root for, consider the near-impossibility of Tennessee’s first 11 possessions ending without a punt or a touchdown, the two most likely outcomes of any drive. It felt a bit like the reverse Battle of Bristol: I’m quite sure Tennessee wasn’t actually 42 points better than Virginia Tech in the midst of their five fumbles that turned a 14-0 game into a 45-17 hole, but we were happy to oblige if they wanted to keep putting it on the ground. Last night Florida had three touchdown drives of less than 25 yards, and only one required more than 70 yards.

So yes, we know Florida can dominate Tennessee when the Vols turn it over six times. Did we learn anything else that could be useful going forward?

Pruitt’s Aggressiveness

One way the Vols attempted to write a new story in this rivalry, especially after erring on the conservative side under Butch Jones, was to be incredibly aggressive:

  • 1Q 4th-and-4 at FLA 38 (14-0 FLA): Incomplete
  • 2Q Onside Kick (14-3 FLA): Florida recovers
  • 2Q 4th-and-1 at TEN 45 (23-3 FLA): 54-yard completion, fumbled out of the end zone for a touchback

It’s interesting to note that none of these decisions directly hurt the Vols. Florida fumbled immediately following the failed fourth down, the Gators went three-and-out after the onside kick (but did pin the Vols deep for a safety), and obviously the fumble through the end zone was the equivalent of a punt doing the same. Tennessee didn’t lose because they were overly aggressive, but they failed to make those aggressive choices count.

What did those decisions tell us about Jeremy Pruitt? Time will tell if that was big-game aggressiveness or something we can expect from him every week. But, if anything can be refreshing in a six-turnover loss, that was. His decision to go for two and try another onside kick when the Vols cut it to 19 with five minutes to go falls in line here too, and I thought this…

…was straight out of Madden. We’ll always be quick to praise the new guy for not being what the guy who got fired was. But I like having a coach who’d rather try every last thing to win and lose by 26 than worry about how that might make him look and settle for losing by 19.

Just Because It’s Not Shotgun…

Much the same as the West Virginia game, the Vols put themselves in bad situations on third down for much of the first quarter. For the second week in a row, Tennessee is ranked 129th nationally in yards per carry in the first quarter (via Sports Source Analytics).

But once the Vols started getting their act together on first and second down, they still couldn’t get it done on third-and-short. Tennessee had to settle for a 32-yard field goal that cut it to 14-3 when Ty Chandler was stuffed on 3rd-and-1. Two cracks at coming off their own two yard line ended in a safety. The long pass to Austin Pope happened because Madre London was denied on 3rd-and-1. And on Tennessee’s first touchdown drive, the Vols had 1st-and-goal at the 4 and went no gain, incomplete, pass interference, one yard, no gain, and finally a one yard touchdown on 3rd-and-goal at the one.

I like seeing the Vols in the I-formation instead of shotgun too, but it hasn’t made us much more fruitful in short yardage. If Tennessee can’t line up and get a yard against the Gators, they almost certainly won’t the next three times out. Maybe this particular unit can have more success in November, maybe not. But we simply do not block well enough to impose our will on third-and-short.

What Now?

The game and the opportunity in this rivalry were lost. But I think much of what we’re also feeling comes from who Tennessee plays next.

It’s just awfully tough to imagine Tennessee beating Georgia, Auburn, or Alabama (plus a bye week). Some will throw South Carolina in Columbia in there too. If that’s the case, you’re 2-6 with Charlotte and the usual SEC East November left, needing to win all four to get bowl eligible. Derek Dooley’s Vols did it in his first season, sparked by the switch to Tyler Bray. But they did not face anything as good as the 2018 versions of Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt appear to be. The Cats, in particular, are at this point almost the equal of Auburn in S&P+.

I’m an optimist by trade and design, and I’ll have us at around 4.25 wins when our weekly win total calculator comes out tomorrow. That’s depressing. We knew it would be more about progress than results this year, but I know we hoped that would be the difference between 5-7 and 6-6. Instead, it’s trying to find anything positive from a six turnover performance against our most relevant rival while our secondary rivals look like the very best versions of themselves. This is bad, it might be very bad, and it might be somewhere between a long and very long time before we’re something more.

This is, in some ways, both the challenge and the opportunity now before Jeremy Pruitt. Expectations are lower than ever. Can he keep his team together over the next few weeks? Can they still be better, regardless of result, in November than they are in September? Can he rally these guys around the idea that, nevermind Georgia or Alabama, nobody believes they can win six games?

The long-term answer is in recruiting, where the Vols are currently fine despite a bad on-field impression on a lot of high-level prospects last night. Pruitt’s boss, who knows both the value of recruiting at Tennessee and the pain of impossible things happening to you against the Gators, can be helpful in reminding us all to keep pulling in the same direction even if we’re not as strong as we thought we were at first.

Objectively, the Vols are 59th in S&P+ right now. Last year they finished 107th. That metric currently projects the Vols to lose by 27, 18, and 27 in their next three games. Like it or not, progress is going to feel like the pursuit of moral victories for a minute here. But last year Quinten Dormady lost to Georgia by 41 and Jarrett Guarantano to Alabama by 38, both averaging less than three yards per play.

There’s only one way to feel after losing to Florida like that, and we know it well. There are few warm fuzzies available over the next few weeks, and we knew that coming in. So it may not be a lot of fun for now. But it doesn’t mean the Vols haven’t made baby steps of progress already. And it doesn’t mean there isn’t progress available every week, if Pruitt can keep this team together and moving forward. I’m sure this wasn’t the start he envisioned, especially the way the game went last night. We lost an opportunity. What will we find in the next few weeks?

Florida 47, Tennessee 21: Vols get drunk on a six-pack of turnovers

Earlier this week, all three of the GRT front page authors predicted a one-point victory for the Tennessee Volunteers over the Florida Gators this week. That wasn’t nearly as amusing/humorous/appalling on Thursday as it might seem right now. After all, there were some very good reasons for thinking such things, none of which matter now.

If you don’t care about the Vols, you don’t care what happened this evening, and if you do care about them, you don’t need me to remind you.

But the short version is this: The Vols didn’t just shoot themselves in the foot. They managed to hit both feet, along with every extremity and most vital internal organs. The self-inflicted wounds were catastrophic from every angle. Too many, too often, in the wrong part of the field, at the wrong time, and against the wrong team. It was a veritable box of chocolates, every one a reeking surprise.

It’s too bad, too, because all of that will rightfully obscure some facts that suggest this should have indeed been a one-point game:

  • Tennessee had 18 first downs to Florida’s 14;
  • The Vols were 8-17 on third down and held the Gators to 3-11;
  • The two teams were only 24 total yards apart;
  • Florida actually committed more penalties than did the Vols.

The two teams were even in almost everything that mattered. But all of that was completely undone by Tennessee’s six (6!) turnovers and a first-half drive chart that featured three fumbles, an interception, a turnover on downs, and a safety just for good measure. The Vols didn’t punt until the 8:26 mark of the third quarter but were at that time still losing 33-6.

The hardest truth confronting the team right now is that those turnovers may not be mere flukes that will suddenly appear against the Gators and disappear when those ghosts are gone.

I fear far too many of the turnover problems are directly attributable to the offensive line’s struggles. The first fumble occurred when Jarrett Guarantano was blindsided while attempting to pass. The interception happened on the next drive, with the team backed up and the Gators’ defense bearing down. Another fumble was caused by a low snap. The safety, of course, was the o-line simply getting pushed back into the end zone, leaving nowhere for the running back to go but down to the turf.

It’s tempting to conclude that the line is failing on every play, but it’s really not. At times, they can give the quarterback enough protection to take shots far downfield. At times, they can block well enough to spring a running back for a big gain.

But far too often, they block poorly enough to get their quarterback injured or their running back tackled behind the spot where he started, and when the defense is living in your space and your head, bad things happen.

That’s what happened tonight. Whether there’s anything that can be done about it this season, well, that’s a very good question.

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Florida

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the 2-1 (0-0) Tennessee Vols hosting the 2-1 (0-1) Florida Gators at Neyland Stadium tonight at 7:00.

Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

First, watch this

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Saturday, September 22, 2018
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
No. 2 Georgia Missouri 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Live Next Opponent
AFTERNOON SLATE
No. 22 Texas A&M No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Future Opponent
Kansas State No. 12 West Virginia 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Past Opponent
South Carolina Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN Channel Hop Future Opponents
EVENING SLATE
Florida Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN Live Go Vols!
No. 14 Mississippi State Kentucky 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN DVR Future Opponent
Arkansas No. 9 Auburn 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN DVR Future Opponent

 

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for the day:

Date Away Home Time TV
Thu Sep 20 Tulsa Temple 7:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Sep 21 Florida Atlantic No. 16 UCF 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Fri Sep 21 No. 10 Penn State Illinois 9:00 PM FS1
Fri Sep 21 Washington State USC 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 No. 2 Georgia Missouri 12:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Nebraska No. 19 Michigan 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Sep 22 No. 23 Boston College Purdue 12:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 No. 8 Notre Dame Wake Forest 12:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Akron Iowa State 12:00 PM
Sat Sep 22 Buffalo Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Sep 22 Kent State Ole Miss 12:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Minnesota Maryland 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Sep 22 Navy SMU 12:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Nevada Toledo 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Sep 22 Ohio Cincinnati 12:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Pittsburgh North Carolina 12:20 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Louisville Virginia 12:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Western Michigan Georgia State 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 22 Illinois State Colorado State 3:00 PM
Sat Sep 22 Maine Central Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 22 Miami (OH) Bowling Green 3:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 22 Western Kentucky Ball State 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 22 No. 22 Texas A&M No. 1 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
Sat Sep 22 Charlotte UMass 3:30 PM
Sat Sep 22 Florida Intl No. 21 Miami 3:30 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Kansas State No. 12 West Virginia 3:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 No. 13 Virginia Tech Old Dominion 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Sep 22 No. 3 Clemson Georgia Tech 3:30 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Tulane No. 4 Ohio State 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Sep 22 Gardner-Webb Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 22 Kansas Baylor 3:30 PM FS1
Sat Sep 22 North Carolina Central Duke 3:30 PM ACCNE, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Northern Illinois Florida State 3:30 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 South Carolina Vanderbilt 4:00 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Arizona Oregon State 4:00 PM PAC12
Sat Sep 22 UConn Syracuse 4:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 No. 17 TCU Texas 4:30 PM FOX
Sat Sep 22 McNeese No. 25 BYU 6:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 22 North Texas Liberty 6:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 22 Florida Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 No. 14 Mississippi State Kentucky 7:00 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Army No. 5 Oklahoma 7:00 PM
Sat Sep 22 Louisiana Tech No. 6 LSU 7:00 PM ESPNU, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Texas Tech No. 15 Oklahoma State 7:00 PM FS1
Sat Sep 22 Coastal Carolina Louisiana 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 22 NC State Marshall 7:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Sep 22 Rice Southern Mississippi 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 22 Texas State UTSA 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 22 Troy UL Monroe 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Sep 22 UNLV Arkansas State 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 22 Arkansas No. 9 Auburn 7:30 PM SECN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 New Mexico State UTEP 7:30 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 22 No. 24 Michigan State Indiana 7:30 PM BTN
Sat Sep 22 No. 7 Stanford No. 20 Oregon 8:00 PM ABC, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 East Carolina South Florida 8:00 PM ESPNN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 South Alabama Memphis 8:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 22 Texas Southern Houston 8:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Sep 22 No. 18 Wisconsin Iowa 8:30 PM FOX
Sat Sep 22 Air Force Utah State 10:15 PM ESPN2, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Arizona State No. 11 Washington 10:30 PM ESPN, WatchESPN
Sat Sep 22 Eastern Michigan San Diego State 10:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Sep 22 Duquesne Hawai'i 11:59 PM

 

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

We did four episodes of the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast this week.

To auto-retrieve these via your phone so you can listen during your regular commute, subscribe via iTunes or Google:

 

Listen on Google Play Music

Also, please take a quick moment to give us a rating and review. Bonus points if you use either of the following phrases in your review: “I’m going with Will’s gut,” or “Dooley’s sack of potatoes.”

And here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Will West on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

The GRT Community Twitter List

Until I am convinced that too much Twitter on Gameday is no longer detrimental to your emotional well-being, I am going to continue to look for ways to foster healthy online conversation about the Vols during games. Last week, I poked my head into the Twitter party, didn’t like what I saw, and came back here. It’s a smaller group, sure, but I much prefer a gathering of friends than runaway groupthink headed for the ledge.

I’m still looking for the absolute best way to enable that, though, so for now we’ll be running the game thread here (our own community), and alongside it we’ll be adding a Twitter list especially curated for the purpose of supplementing that conversation with outside stuff, but only if that outside stuff actually adds value to the in-game conversation.

Hopefully, adding only the best from Twitter to our own conversation here will help us build an active and healthy in-game experience.

Go Vols!

Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: Florida edition

It’s time for this week’s edition of the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you are wondering what that is exactly, you can find out everything you need to know here. Last week’s results are here.

 

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our three questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 152 – BEAT FLORIDA

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Listen on Google Play Music

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Robo-Transcript below.

Pardon the errors, as the bot understands neither southern accents nor football.

GRT Podcast 9.21.18

NOTES

[00:02:56] Does this week still feel like a regular Tennessee-Florida week?
[00:07:25] Will’s prediction for the game.
[00:12:13] Hilarious transcription error here.
[00:15:05] Will’s list of priorities for the Vols this weekend against the Gators.
[00:21:43] Will’s answers to the Guessing Game questions.
[00:25:33] The odd strategy that Will has used to secure the overall lead in the GRT Pick ‘Em contest after Week 3.
[00:27:46] This portends the end of the world, as both Joel and Will admit that they’ve picked Vanderbilt over South Carolina this weekend.
[00:29:38] Will’s take on Rick Barnes, the Tennessee basketball program, and the addition of a five-star point guard to the mix.

TRANSCRIPT

Joel: [00:00:14] This is the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast Episode 152. I’m Joel Hollingsworth and I’m with Wil Shelton again this evening. How you doing Will

Will: [00:00:22] I’m doing all right. How are you.

Joel: [00:00:24] I am doing great. We are on big episode 152 so you know Brad missed the big milestone a couple of episodes ago and he said he felt terrible about it. Actually he didn’t say that but you know it was it was a big deal. And now we’re like sorry I’m repositioning and got way too close to the microphone. So you know we’ve been racking them up this this week so we’re we’re going to roll this odometer over to you know we’re going to be at 1800 in no time flat.

Will: [00:01:02] Right.

Joel: [00:01:03] So yeah.

Will: [00:01:03] Only if Tennessee wins though like we’re not doing that many podcasts if we keep losing.

Joel: [00:01:07] That’s true because they’re much more difficult to do when they’re losing or they actually

Will: [00:01:12] Yes

Joel: [00:01:12] They do turn in sort of a therapy session. So those are kind of good. They tend to be longer and sadder and probably a lot less fun to listen to but they’re good for us you know. So that’s what counts right.

Will: [00:01:28] Well and longtime listeners of the podcast will recall that we didn’t we have we had a sports psychologist on once

Joel: [00:01:34] We did.

Will: [00:01:34] And

Joel: [00:01:34] Yes.

Will: [00:01:34] Liked to have a 2011 when things were really dark and dreary. And I also remember you’re doing one in 2010 we were and Tennessee was playing Ole Miss. The last time he won an SEC West game. And I remember being sitting outside a friend’s house. I was in Knoxville for that game and I was sitting outside a friend’s house we were doing like an hour and 15 minutes on Ole Miss and we were three and 6 and I was like. Internally I was asking anyone listening to this probably probably not. So

Joel: [00:02:09] Yes.

Will: [00:02:09] We asked if we can if we can avoid any other sports psychologist in our future. That would be it would be a really good sign.

Joel: [00:02:16] That would be a good sign. I will say that according to one metric there’s like twenty five thousand downloads over the course of 152 episodes so you know that sounds like a lot of people I guess.

Will: [00:02:31] Yeah. Yeah. And there were some. I think sometimes too about we did that one. It would have been 2009 where like on the same podcast we had Clay Travis

Joel: [00:02:44] Yes.

Will: [00:02:45] Spencer Hall

Joel: [00:02:45] Yeah.

Will: [00:02:46] Holly Anderson

Joel: [00:02:46] Yeah.

Will: [00:02:47] And the little old you and me. So. So you know like it’s you know that’s pretty cool

Joel: [00:02:56] Yup.

Will: [00:02:56] These days regardless of everyone’s changing opinions about Clay Travis or whatever the case may be. So yeah we’ve had we’ve had all kinds of fun throughout the years despite the the on field football products not necessarily being all kinds of fun and so hopefully that is a play this is a this is a fun week. It’s still like I still feel the same about this week right now as in just about any other year. Like another coaching change and going 4-8 last year given be by West Virginia and even Florida losing in Kentucky like I still feel the way I’m accustomed to feeling on the Thursday night before the Florida game or do you feel do you feel the same way like I. That’s that’s warm and welcoming to me that still feels like everything the Tennessee Florida game should be in terms of what what’s on the line for fans that sort of stuff. Does it feel the same to you.

Joel: [00:03:47] It actually does and I’m a little surprised about it because you know when we talked a couple of nights ago it was you know is this a race for the bottom of the SEC East. You know. And so if that’s the case you know you’re like well you know nothing. Nothing really matters. But you know what. When I saw that video which have you seen it yet the

Will: [00:04:08] Admiral Schofield video.

Joel: [00:04:10] Yes

Will: [00:04:10] Yeah.

Joel: [00:04:11] That is awesome. So after watching that that really finally kicked me into regular Tennessee Florida hate week mode. So yeah I’m excited. And you know what. It’s not just because it’s Tennessee Florida and I want to beat them and we owe them and we get all this revenge stuff and all the record of wrongs. Remember when we used to do that.

Will: [00:04:32] Yeah yeah.

Joel: [00:04:33] There’s a lot of stuff there you know it’s all pent up. But it’s not just that because as Brad was mentioning last night. This is this is sort of a game where you can think that whoever wins sort of has the inside track to competing with Georgia for the SEC East probably not this year but seems to be the team that’s going to be favored to be the one to to compete with them in the immediate future. So I don’t know. Maybe that’s reading too much into it and of course if we lose I’ll say well it won’t matter you know.

Will: [00:05:18] No I agree with that though I think that’s I’ve read some interesting stuff from the Florida perspective this week talking about. Because they’ve already lost to Kentucky if you lose again here for them. Is that sort of the a reality check that they their administration the powers that be in Gainesville might need to say hey this is way worse than we than we thought it was. And even in their moments when they thought things were going poorly for them before whether it was the end of Ron Zooks tenure or you know the sort of the last Urban Meyer year that led to the first Will Muschamp year when things weren’t necessarily great they still had the potential to bounce it right back you know Urban Meyer won a national championship in his second year. Will Muschamp almost won the SEC in his second year got him. I think it was the sugar bowl it was a BCS. Yes. You know at large bid for them in his in his second year so even when they’ve had down moments I think the Gators are used to, we can turn this around almost overnight. Year two we can win. You know 13 plus games in the national championship. And I think if Tennessee wins this game Saturday it’s going to almost help is the word I want to use. It’s going to help them realize like hey this is this is more down than we have been previously and it’s going to take more time I think than Florida fans might want to Because you know you lose to Kentucky maybe Kentucy’s good who knows. You know maybe Kentucky this is a 9 or 10 win Kentucky team maybe probably not but maybe. But I think if you lose here to a team you’re still accustomed to beating I’m sure and to a Tennessee team that also has won four games last year. That may this may be a reality check for the Gators that sort of last year and really a much longer period over the last decade for Tennessee fans. I think we’ve already kind of gone through that that process says that’s kind of how I look at things.

Joel: [00:07:25] Yeah. I asked Brad this last night because my my statsy preview machine spit out after some eyeball and gut adjustments a one point Tennessee win 23 22. That’s my prediction. And Brad completely independently without any prior discussion. His prediction was Tennessee 24 Florida 23. So we’re both expecting really close games. What are you expecting Saturday

Will: [00:07:58] Well independently as well I can tell you in the in the confidence points picks contest I picked Tennessee 21 20. So I think we’re we’re all either we’re all brilliant or we’re all idiots. And you know again longtime listeners of this podcast can come to their own conclusions on that. But no I think the biggest thing to me is this. It really does feel like a toss up. It’s I think it’s still hard to get a really good read on either of these two teams because you got one bad performance and then you’ve got competition that is just kind of hard to I think Colorado State a lot of people thought it was going to be better than what Bobo and John Jancek and those guys put together and so it’s hard to look at what Florida did last week with any kind of real confidence or merit. So I’m not convinced this is when people talk about is going to be a rock fight and two really bad teams and whatever the case may be I’m not convinced of all that. I don’t think this is you know if we go back to 2013 Butch Jones first year that that the infamous Nathan Peterman game. Those were two really bad offenses really bad offenses in that game. I don’t think the offenses are that bad when we’re talking about this year. And there was you know we’ve seen some ineptitude Tennessee certainly last year was was really inept at times offensively in terms of execution inside the 10 yard line and all that we remember so I don’t think that this is destined to be a 16 13 18 punts sort of sort of game. But I do think it will. It will be lower scoring and until you see Tennessee’s line protect against a better sort of defense than what they have faced this year. You can’t really I have a hard time picking Tennessee to score 28 30 points until I see the line stand up. But I don’t

Joel: [00:10:01] Yeah.

Will: [00:10:01] Think it’ll take 20 or 30 points to win this game. So yeah I think a toss up given given the toss up nature I still am going to write about this for Friday morning. I just default back to the same thing I’ve been saying for the last two or three years which is I think Tennessee is better. I think Tennessee has been the better team four years in a row at this. And finally we asked this question we were talking about Spencer Hall a minute ago we used to have him on the podcast when we were at SB Nation here every week and every year when Tennessee played Florida. And I feel like for years we would ask is Tennessee feels like Tennessee is the better team is Tennessee the better team or at least caught up and the recruiting rankings really didn’t ever bear that out regardless of what Muschamp was or wasn’t getting out of the Gators. But now that really has changed because of. You’ve got three years of Jim McElwain’s recruiting you’ve got a kind of a tough transition class with Dan Mullen and so. The Athletic did a good piece this week. Just looking at. Yeah like Tennessee in recruiting going back over the last three or four years is equal to or better than Florida. Now some of those guys at Tennessee transferred out didn’t pan out. Preston Williams those kinds of guys were really highly rated. And Florida I’m sure has got some of that too but I just feel like in every measure that generally speaking in terms of who gained the most yards in these games recruiting those kinds of things that Tennessee has been better than Florida in the last four years and that it’s not. Again I’ll I’ll get into this more in-depth and in writing it out but it’s not homer fan optimism crazy talk to say that Tennessee has had to have some spectacularly strange things happen to them. Many of them self-inflicted

Joel: [00:11:57] Right.

Will: [00:11:58] To lose in 14 15 and 17. And Florida fans will probably say hey we had some spectacularly. You know what happened in 16 was weird. All of the games have been weird. I think we would say what happened in 16 was

Joel: [00:12:10] We just beat

Will: [00:12:11] Tennessee.

Joel: [00:12:11] You

Will: [00:12:13] Yeah and if Tennessee had had their stuff together the first half would have been way worse. But you know Tennessee was capable of just beating Florida in at least 15 as well and really dominated, dominated seven eighths of the game in 14 the one they ultimately lost 10 to nine. And last year Tennessee didn’t dominate that game but Tennessee was play for play. I would say was better than Florida in last years game and just spectacularly weirdly passed the ball inside the 10 yard line a bunch of times. Again you don’t need me to tell you that, you remember but. I just default to I think these are evenly matched teams in terms of. 2018. And when I think something is close I often just go back and say look I think Tennessee has been the better team the better. Even now. Equal to or better than Florida in recruiting and overall talent which is something that’s almost never been true in the history of this robbery [KEEPING THIS ERROR FOR FUN!]. And so all that being the case I tend to lean Tennessee’s way. Now all that stuff can go right out the window if you get that sort of coaching ineptitude because I was saying that about Tennessee and Georgia up to the kickoff of that game last year where Tennessee and Georgia had played one possession games 2011 through 2016. And so regardless of anything else kept going back and saying look these these teams are not that far apart. And as it turned out the difference between Kirby Smart and Butch Jones made them incredibly far apart. So you know I’m open to be wrong about this as as I am most things but I think this is a toss up. If you asked me how confident I am I would say five out of ten. And you know you hope that it’s 5.1 out of 10 and Tennessee they will find a way to get this done.

Joel: [00:14:13] Yeah. That’s interesting that you mentioned the Georgia thing because the difference there I think still goes back to recruiting because it was always pretty clear that Georgia had better players and then it was just a matter of the coaches sort of evening things out. And I think with Florida it’s almost like we have about the same kind of players and where we lost was on coaching. Even though McElwain got fired too you know we just made some. It seemed like coaching blunders were sort of the primary culprit for those for those losses. And you’re hoping that with the coaching change that a little more discipline a little more football knowledge a little more you know hey we know what’s going on here maybe makes the difference. So anyway that’s kind of what I’m thinking.

Joel: [00:15:05] But what do you think is the list of priorities for Tennessee on Saturday.

Will: [00:15:13] I think first of all it is for Jeremy Pruitt and Tyson Helton establishing some sort of rhythm offensively that gives you your best chance of victory which is to say how much more are they going to ask of Jarrett Guarantano without asking too much of him. It’s quarterback that hasn’t thrown an interception yet he’s been hit on a lot but not necessarily been put in terrible positions by the play calling a lot of deep shots have been with max protection and that sort of stuff. So when you have to be a little more exotic than that against the better defense and an SEC opponent how much more are they going to rely on Guarantano to do things for him and the passing game without relying too much without us coming back next week and talking alright Guarantano had three picks in this game and what do we do and that sort of stuff. And then right alongside that what’s the balance in their run game. If Tennessee is the next to worst rushing team in the country in the first quarter this year. If we’re bad running the ball in the first quarter again. How. How patient are we going to be this got Philip Fullmer some years with Florida where when we talk about the team that wins the rushing battle wins this contest. If Tennessee has one of these you know 35 carries for 70 yards that’s too many carries at two yards a carry.

Will: [00:16:39] You know at some point you need to try something else so how. How willing is a head coach as a defensive guy that we all I think kind of assume is more conservative and would like to run clock and have his defense be the one that dictates the game. What’s the sweet spot there in terms of how aggressive you’re going to be. How patient you’re going to be with the run game if it struggles early. All that sort of stuff so I think figuring out what that rhythm is offensively that gives Tennessee the best chance to win. To me that is the most. Important thing. You know other other things we’ve talked about before are important. If this line can’t block. Not much of this matters. If Tennessee can’t get pressure with just their front four guys then we’re back to the West Virginia conversation of alright here comes a bunch of blitzes and if he gets it off. Cross your fingers that you know our freshmen back there are going to be able to to not get beat and that should be an easier task against Florida. But that’s you know those things to me are just kind of simple. If we can’t block out a lot of these matters and if we can’t get to Felipe Franks cross your fingers.

Joel: [00:17:53] Have you heard Brad’s a stat on that I can’t even repeat what it is. But it’s but the gist of it is that apparently the numbers so far this year show that Felipe Franks is worse if you don’t pressure him.

Will: [00:18:10] So the idea there is right is such a bad decision maker

Joel: [00:18:13] Yeah.

Will: [00:18:13] That you want to have him sit back there and try to read the field and and pick it out. And you know I’ve heard Brad say that I’ve heard some other folks I read on Tennessee have made that point. I’m intrigued by that. You know I have the memory of this guy bombing a Hail Mary on us last year so there is a part of me that’s like well let’s put that guy on the ground if we can. But you know this too I think that will be telling a little bit about Pruitt is I don’t necessarily think that Pruitt is super overly aggressive by trade but he he has tremendous experience going against quarterbacks that are far better than Felipe Franks when he was in Alabama and Florida State and Georgia and trying to find ways to minimize what they were able to do. But Pruitt talks a lot about turnovers. You know you talked a lot about it again this week and

Joel: [00:19:06] Yeah.

Will: [00:19:06] So that’s that’s one of the things I think that that Chavis was really good at when he was here. Not all the turnovers that Tennessee got were about getting pressure on the quarterback. Some of them were. We got real good athletes and we’re going to put them in the right radar area on on the field and we’re going to trust that they’re going to go make a play. And I think again you’re seeing Pruitt play freshmen because he trusts that these guys have abilities to make plays that maybe some of the Butch Jones upperclassmen just just don’t have as much ability there even though they got more experience so you know I’m intrigued by that. I don’t I don’t know that you can build a whole game plan around that. The trust Felipe Franks to do something dumb game plan. I don’t know if that works or not

Joel: [00:19:52] Yeah.

Will: [00:19:52] But I mean again to see this rivalry. It’s so funny to look at and talk about because that the 15 game like those were two good teams that Florida with Will Grier was a really good team. And Tennessee as we all know in 15 was just a team that lost really close games to the east champion and other teams that made the playoffs so that 15 game was two really good teams going at each other. But the other times in these games you know we’re seeing Felipe Franks and Austin Appleby in 2016. And the guy where they made the change in 14 right and brought the kid and off the bench that got the one touchdown drive for him after a turnover. What was a kid’s name Harris or something like

Joel: [00:20:42] I don’t remember.

Will: [00:20:44] But so like we haven’t we haven’t seen sterling quarterback play outside of Will Grier in 2015 from from Florida in this rivalry. So is that part has changed obviously significantly from from back in the day and from Tim Tebow. So I don’t know. I think that’s just the sort of recent history weighing on me of saying well we’ve already been beat by Felipe Franks once and you know beat by in 2014 by bad quarterback play and we’re down 21 to 3 to Austin Appleby in 2016. So you know that is maybe I got a little too much scarring for that but this is where I part of the thing about having a national championship defensive coordinator is your head coaches. I don’t have to worry about that. I trust Jeremy Pruitt’s smart enough to figure out what to do there.

Joel: [00:21:34] Yeah. All right. So we’re we’re sort of running a little late here but you get a little extra time.

Will: [00:21:42] Yeah sure.

Joel: [00:21:43] Ok. So I just wanted to run through the guessing game questions. Just real quick I know you probably haven’t seen these yet or unless you read. OK. So you can you can defer if you want or just answer quickly or as with as much detail as you want but I’m going to run through them quick. So first one is which is greater Tennessee’s rushing yards or Florida’s passing yards.

Will: [00:22:09] I feel like the answer to that has to be Florida’s passing yards. If the answer is our rushing yards it’s going to be a real good night. But I think as much as Tennessee has struggled to run the ball with consistency. I think Florida will find opportunities and enough opportunities in the passing game even if it’s Felipe Franks for for the Gators to be the answer on that one.

Joel: [00:22:34] Ok. Does it change your answer. If I told you that Charleston Southern ran for 222 on them.

Will: [00:22:42] No see I don’t know enough about . . . like Kentucky. I think Benny Snell is a better running back then than anybody that we have on our roster. And also Kentucky the way they run the football is just different than the way we seek to run the football in terms of philosophy different enough anyway. So like not knowing enough or anything about Charleston Southern, no it does not. That does not change my mind on that. But again if that is the answer I think things are going to go extraordinarily well for Tennessee.

Joel: [00:23:18] Ok. That is exceptional infallible logic and I’m going with Tennessee’s rushing yards. So. All right.

Will: [00:23:26] They’re your questions. Yeah.

Joel: [00:23:28] So who scores the first touchdown for the Vols. Ty Chandler, another running back. A wide receiver or somebody else.

Will: [00:23:39] Well somebody else would be fun if we’re talking about all that stuff. But I will go with a wide receiver. I think I think Marquez Callaway is great. I think they intentionally didn’t really go to him a lot against against UTEP. I think Jauan Jennings obviously is someone that has a lot of history and success in this rivalry. And I’ve been impressed with Josh Palmer. Brandon Johnson was good last year. I think there are a lot of options. Tyson Helton as we read about in the summer USC and at Western Kentucky he involves three and four guys almost every game. It was really diverse in terms of the number of receivers out there so I would not be surprised to see one. I think Callaway maybe, when Tennessee’s offense is on the field I think Callaway may be the best player on the field. No offense to Trey Smith but then 2, just some wrinkles and there again if you’re going to lean on Guarantano more are there ways to change them up and slip something in there to Jordan Murphy or you know those those kinds of things so I will I will go with a wide receiver on that one.

Joel: [00:24:45] All right. I’m going with another running back just the field against Ty Chandler I think it’s going to be a running touchdown first and I’m just going with the field versus Chandler and the somebody else, that’s basically a spot for Dominick Wood-Anderson. So.

Will: [00:25:02] Right. Or Jarrett Guarantano on a roll out keeper.

Joel: [00:25:06] That’ll work. Yeah. Ok third question who leads at half time the Vols the Gators or nobody

Will: [00:25:15] If the action is juiced toward nobody I mean if you’re giving me more points for nobody I

Joel: [00:25:20] Probably

Will: [00:25:20] May I may

Joel: [00:25:20] Am.

Will: [00:25:20] Actually yeah I may pick that and the actual contest but I’ll say Tennessee. I mean again if if were saying it’s 50/50, Tennessee’s at home and said as he had been better the last few years I would lean towards Tennessee.

Joel: [00:25:33] All right cool. You’re actually like you’re in the lead overall for the pick em contest this year is that right.

Will: [00:25:44] I am it’s very strange to me. I got again longtime listeners and readers will know I’m a gut person but I’m also like I pick teams that I like. I don’t like to be conflicted when I’m watching the games.

Joel: [00:25:59] Yeah.

Will: [00:25:59] I don’t like to think oh I really like this team to win but I picked this other team so one way I got ahead of a lot of people early is I had Virginia Tech over Florida State in week one

Joel: [00:26:08] Ok

Will: [00:26:08] And that’s a that’s a game where a lot of people I know put a lot of points on Willie Taggart and company down there

Joel: [00:26:16] Yeah.

Will: [00:26:17] And they should not have done that. So that’s not the Virginia Tech is my point Willie Taggart may turn out to be fine but that was a I’m back in my house now is about 20 miles from Lane Stadium. So I am I’m a little biased in that direction anyway but. That was that game had the total makings of a game that Virginia Tech wins which is what happened so I say all that to say I tend to do as well as Tennessee does

Joel: [00:26:45] Yeah.

Will: [00:26:45] In a given year in these things. So

Joel: [00:26:47] That’s what I was going to say if Tennessee ever wins the national championship you’re going to also win the pick em.

Will: [00:26:52] That’s right. Exactly yeah. So so far I am in first. But I had us to beat with Virginia. I’ve certainly got Tennessee not I don’t know know I think the confidence points on West Virginia I had like 3 I think I’ve got Tennessee at like 9 this week.

Joel: [00:27:10] That’s

Will: [00:27:10] So

Joel: [00:27:10] Pretty high for

Will: [00:27:11] You know

Joel: [00:27:11] A one point

Will: [00:27:12] It’s

Joel: [00:27:12] Game.

Will: [00:27:13] I’ve got some other some other things in there though that I’m interested in. And it makes me look so smart. But last week another reason I’m in front is I picked BYU to beat Wisconsin. You know why? It’s because we play BYU next year. And it’s better for us nationally if they’re good so.

Joel: [00:27:30] That was not infallible logic.

Will: [00:27:33] No. It’s like I said it’s my heart and my gut. I had I had it with like one confidence point but I bet lots people had Wisconsi at like 18 confidence points so

Joel: [00:27:43] Yeah, that was me.

Will: [00:27:44] Is that right.

Joel: [00:27:46] Yeah.

Will: [00:27:46] Yes. So I just pick those thing I pick that game because it’s of interest to Tennessee and because we play BYU next year. And I pick BYU to win because even joked about it on Twitter. It’s better for Tennessee if BYU is better next year and then we beat them. So you know I’m that’s I don’t think I have anything I’d have to look at it. I think I have anything really crazy this week. I had a real hard time like this is the weird world we live in where the two most interesting SEC games this Saturday are probably the best one is Mississippi State and Kentucky which I don’t know how that happened but like truly that’s the best SEC game this week and the hardest one to pick to me outside of Tennessee Florida is South Carolina Vanderbilt.

Joel: [00:28:33] Yeah yeah

Will: [00:28:34] Like

Joel: [00:28:34] I got Vandy

Will: [00:28:34] That’s

Joel: [00:28:35] In that one actually.

Will: [00:28:35] I’ve got Vandy too. And it’s so weird like I don’t know how many times I’ve said the phrase I’ve got Vandy in that one in my life let alone against the team that was going to be the second best team in this division.

Joel: [00:28:47] Yeah.

Will: [00:28:48] And I think it’s in Nashville and Vandy may even be favored like it.

Joel: [00:28:51] No they’re

Will: [00:28:51] I

Joel: [00:28:52] Not.

Will: [00:28:52] Think

Joel: [00:28:52] But it’s close. I think is like two

Will: [00:28:53] It’s like two

Joel: [00:28:53] And a half

Will: [00:28:54] And a half. Yeah. So I don’t know man this is this is weird but no joke I mean I feel bad for Alabama and Texas A&M is the 330 game and all that but Bama sis till at 27 and a half point favorite in that

Joel: [00:29:09] Yeah

Will: [00:29:10] Game. The

Joel: [00:29:10] Yeah.

Will: [00:29:10] Best game this week like that is in a totally fair world. Mississippi State and Kentucky is the 330 CBS game this week. But instead I’m sure it’s like ESPNU or something like that.

Joel: [00:29:25] So if you’re looking for a way to win the pick em you just have to change your strategy and figure out some way to go with Will’s gut. That’s basically the lesson I’m learning from this

Will: [00:29:36] Through the first

Joel: [00:29:36] Sir.

Will: [00:29:36] Three weeks yeah.

Joel: [00:29:38] All right. Quickly last question because I wanted to get to this if we if we still had time. You’re the basketball guy. So do you have anything to say about the hoops team landing five star point guard Josiah James.

Will: [00:29:53] Well you know I think everyone who you just can’t assume about things everyone assumed things about Rick Barnes over the course of X number of years he’s kind of doing what he did at Texas which is build the program his way establish his culture and then here comes the big money recruit. I mean again this is lots people have said this on Twitter I tweeted this to in the history of recruiting rankings this is the third highest commit to ever sign with Tennessee. Only Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson have have been higher. So you know this is a big time player like Tobias Harris may only be around here for one year. But I think Barnes also learned with all those guys at Texas which led to a bunch of earlier exits in the NCAA tournament than than they were seeded for. You know it shows me that he’s not afraid to still go after the very best players that we’re not trying to be Virginia or no offense to Virginia. They were incredible last year in the regular season. We’re not trying to be South Carolina in our conference who we’re going to do it our way or we’re going to recruit kids and only play our way like it. Barnes is still more than happy to take a five star kid if he fits what we’re doing and we’ve been in on other five star kids as well. So now it’s I me will be interesting to see as we go from here how many more of these one and done ish players is Barnes going to go after and try to get.

Will: [00:31:28] But I think you got to feel so good about the culture at Tennessee right now and where you know we’re in a year where You know you’re going to lose Admiral. Grant’s a junior. You might lose him, you might lose Kyle Alexander. When you were trying to figure out OK is next season is 2019 20 going to be a rebuilding year. Well no. Now it’s going to be. We might have an NBA lottery pick on our team. So you know that’s that was a great thing. I think for Tennessee’s future so just goes to show you man all the things that all the things in terms of on court success that I thought Tennessee lost when Bruce Pearl left and I wasn’t sure if they would ever get back. Barnes, still got to get to the Sweet 16 or the elite eight with Tennessee, but Barnes has Tennessee competing and recruiting at those same levels right now. And that’s that’s an incredible testament to him so we can’t get back the shirtless painted chests whatever. But we also we also can’t get back or should want to get back lying to the NCAA. So you know it’s. It is. As a long suffering Tennessee basketball fan I am thrilled that it certainly appears that what we’re seeing right now isn’t just oh man we’ve got a really good mix of players and we’re going to be really good for two years and we’ll see that you know Barness is setting this thing up to keep Tennessee at the table for a long time and I think that’s tremendous.

Joel: [00:33:03] I will forever maintain that Bruce Pearl didn’t get fired for lying to the NCAA. As much as he did for admitting it which is a shame because that’s what you should do when you do something wrong. You should admit it but all the people who just maintain their lie when everybody knows they’re lying. They always get a pass. I hate that

Will: [00:33:22] Yeah. Oh yeah I mean it’s Clay Travis. We mentioned him earlier as one of the first people I saw say hey this this whole thing with Pearl is like no one will ever come clean to the NCAA again I promise

Joel: [00:33:35] Yes.

Will: [00:33:36] You that because you get a 3 year show cause for it. So you know. Good good for Bruce. He’s again I’ve written about this Bruce is at Auburn, legally or illegally. I have no idea but he’s doing great things at Auburn and good for him. Cuonzo is at Missouri doing great things good for him like you know everybody can be Rick Barnes doesn’t need Cuonzo Martin to suck for him to be successful and thanks be to God we don’t have to have you know here’s Bruce Pearl cutting down nets and meanwhile we’re four and 14. Can you imagine if we hadn’t hired Barnes or if you know whatever had happened and we actually finished 13th last year and Pearl won the SEC . Can you imagine. I mean just it would have fit really well with the rest of the decade. But you know I am I am as bad as things have been in football to have had to have had as good as we had it with Pearl for six years and now two two have come back to a place where it feels like anything is possible with this basketball program. Again that’s an incredible thing. And if Tennessee does not play well Saturday night and they lose to the Gators. Chris Chris Pendley and I were talking about this earlier today that it may be the first time in the history of ever that Tennessee is quicker than Kentucky to say wait till basketball season baby but basketball season is coming. So that’s that’s good news on the back end.

Joel: [00:35:10] That’s Will Shelton and that’s going to be a wrap for episode 152 of the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. As always please subscribe rate and review bonus points if you use the phrase.

Joel: [00:35:25] “I’m going with Will’s gut” in the review. That’s the secret phrase for this.

Will: [00:35:32] Next week the secret praise will be I trusted Will’s gut and I shouldn’t have

Joel: [00:35:38] I’ll remember them or write that down.

Will: [00:35:39] Yeah.

Joel: [00:35:41] And so for Will Shelton I’m Joel Hollingsworth and this has been the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast.

Joel: [00:35:49] Have you noticed that the robo-transcript always calls it the Gameday Iraqi. Actually I’ve been I’ve been

Will: [00:35:56] Not

Joel: [00:35:56] Correct

Will: [00:35:56] Saying

Joel: [00:35:56] In it.

Will: [00:35:57] That

Joel: [00:35:58] Gameday. Iraqi. Podcast. Iraqi Top.

Will: [00:36:03] Yeah there are real because that typically is how I hear the podcast that I’m not on is by reading the transcript on my lunch break or something like that and I have. There have been some real gems in there. So whatever whatever whatever service you’re using to translate it I would not change it because I really enjoy it.

Joel: [00:36:23] I’ve been actually correcting most of them but if they’re really good I’ll just leave them and make a note of what was the hilarious one from yesterday.

Will: [00:36:30] Like a standard woman rush or something

Joel: [00:36:32] Oh yeah

Will: [00:36:33] Like that

Joel: [00:36:33] It was.

Will: [00:36:33] Or

Joel: [00:36:34] He tried to say a four standard four man rush. Is that standard woman rush. Yeah that was

Will: [00:36:41] Yeah

Joel: [00:36:42] A good one.

Will: [00:36:42] You’ve got to watch out for that. Yeah.

Joel: [00:36:45] I know I was gonna say you said you know having him cut down the nets at Auburn while we’re 4 and 14 that would be kind of like if Saban retired they promoted Butch Jones and he hoisted the crystal trophy over there.

Will: [00:37:01] Seems unlikely.

The Confidence of Much Older Men

In spite of everything – coaching changes, 4-8, a 26-point loss to West Virginia, Florida’s loss to Kentucky – this still feels like the Friday morning of Florida week is supposed to feel. The slow burn of anticipation has taken us to the end of the work week and, for the first time since 2012, it will build to the evening hours on Saturday.

The stakes have changed, not just from the 90’s but two years ago, when ducks pulled trucks and you knew the division was on the line. Now those same two teams are fighting for the first step of a rebuild. There are tickets available in the last ten rows of the upper deck, where the Gators would normally reside, though their $105 face value may be keeping some people away. But this is still Friday, still Florida week, and I’d imagine it will feel just right on Saturday night too.

The close proximity of Tennessee and Florida the last few years, both head-to-head and in the overall health of their respective programs, is in some ways progress for the Vols, even though we only beat them once. In the last few years, the sense of dread that comes with an 11-year losing streak shifted: once we feared Florida doing bad things to us, then we feared us doing bad things to ourselves.

But with a new coach and new athletic director (who 26 years ago knew a thing or two about beating Florida on your first try), there’s an opportunity for separation: from the past and, in a first, small step, from the Gators.

The foundation for such a thing was indeed built brick-by-brick. But often in the last four years, the Vols turned into Clark Griswold in critical moments when they faced the Gators.

Tennessee has out-gained Florida four years in a row. In every one of those games, the turnover margin was even. And the Vols won the vaunted rushing battle the last three years.

And yet, the Gators won three of those four and had a 21-0 lead in the other.

What felt like weirdness in the red zone in 2014 and an extraordinary set of bad things happening in 2015 ceased to be coincidence when both of them happened in this game last year. When we suggest the Vols have been better than Florida the last four years head-to-head, the numbers back it up. And a piece from Will Sammon in The Athletic this week pointed out the Vols have recruited slightly better than the Gators from 2015-18 too.

There’s much more to beating Florida than changing the head coach; obviously there’s a new man on the other sideline too. But if there is confidence to be found on either sideline, there are Tennessee players who have to know they should’ve had this team the last few years. And there are still a few guys on this team – Jauan Jennings, Chance Hall, Drew Richmond, and Todd Kelly, Jr., among others – who know what it’s like to play for and make the breaks against this Florida team in victory. And any “we always beat these guys” vibes on the other bench have to be a bit tainted, having already lost to a team they always beat for three decades.

For Jeremy Pruitt, who earned plenty of confidence as a defensive coordinator, one of the most important issues in his first year is getting his team to believe: not just in him, but in themselves. That will be a tougher task in the next few weeks. But tomorrow night – surrounded by champions past, and inspired by the pain and knowledge of what should have been the last four years – the Vols can take a big step forward, in confidence and result.

This is a big one; it always will be. But after years of finding a way to lose, a new coach can inspire confidence by getting his team to play with it.

#DontLetUp

 

Locks & Keys Week 4: Tennessee Tries to be Gata Annihilatas

There was never a chance for UTEP to beat Tennessee last weekend, so why were we so angry when the Vols dominated? It’s because it was ugly, and entering a crucial, pivotal tilt with Florida this weekend, we wanted to feel warm and fuzzy about the direction of the team.

Instead, we are all concerned. The Gators are coming to Knoxville a 4.5-point favorite, and — to be honest the way the series history has gone — you can’t feel good about that. Safe money rides with the Gators, and they’re getting healthy at the right time. They also manhandled a decent Colorado State team 48-10 a week ago. It wasn’t like the Gators’ struggling offense finally found something, though. It didn’t.

UF won that game with defense and special teams, and if they come to Neyland Stadium and beat the Vols on Saturday night, that’ll have to be the ingredients again. It’s happened too many times to think otherwise, but if you’re a Tennessee fan, you’ve got to believe in coach Jeremy Pruitt’s ability to motivate. You’ve got to hope that there have been some offensive tricks of coordinator Tyson Helton’s sleeve that he’s been saving for UF during this vanilla start to the season.

If you don’t hope, you’ve got nothing, right?

Quite frankly, if Tennessee doesn’t win this game, a bowl game is unlikely. The Vols have just one more definite win on the schedule, and that’s Charlotte. Lose this game, and you’re left with needing to win three out of four against South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Missouri — four teams that look much improved from what they’ve been in the past. Because, right now, beating Alabama, Georgia or Auburn feels like a long shot.

This is as close to a must-win at this point of the season as you’re going to get. Let’s take a look at what needs to happen to make that happen.

KEYS

Get ahead early

It’s going to be raucous in Neyland Stadium on Saturday night for a game the Vols like to be played late in the day. The fans know how big this game is, and — quite frankly — it’s the biggest game for both programs in a long, long time.

Why?

It isn’t for the SEC East, most likely, but that doesn’t matter. This is two once-proud programs needing the victory for the feel-goods to come back around. They need it for bragging rights, for recruiting edges and, sadly, for bowl-eligibility. Both programs have the resources in place to get back and contend with Georgia, but neither are there.

If the Vols can get going early and keep the crowd in it in full-voice, that’s a massive advantage. Neyland has been electric a few times recently, and the Vols didn’t take advantage of it, but they did in 2016 when they scored 30 points late to run away with UF and end an 11-year drought. They need the same kind of firepower early. Take the Gators out of the game and keep the Vols faithful in it. That’s the biggest key.

“When Florida’s got the ball, I bet you they can’t hear with the way our fans are, because the fans are going to be ready for this game, I can tell you that,” Pruitt said Sunday on his coaches show.

Let’s make those words stand up.

Neutralize the edges

The Gators welcome back defensive leader Cece Jefferson, and between him and Jabari Zuniga, Tennessee’s tackles will have their hands full. The Vols haven’t been good on the edges yet this year, with Drew Richmond playing much like he has throughout his career and star Trey Smith struggling to get going after missing all of preseason conditioning and switching positions.

The Vols must have them playing at a high level. Jarrett Guarantano has done a good job so far this year getting the ball out on time and avoiding too many sacks, and he’s looked sharp doing it. But he must have his best game eluding pressure and finding the right guys in enough time to move UT down the field.

If Smith and Richmond don’t do their job, it’s going to make play-calling harder on Helton and play execution impossible for Guarantano. Remember the first few snaps of the West Virginia game, how nothing could even get going? Yeah, Florida’s pass rush is even better than that.

The Vols have to play by far their best game so far this season up front.

Quarterback coming-of-age

It’s hyperbole by now, but legends are forged in this game. Nobody is going to draw any paintings about a 6-6 team, but as we’ve mentioned so many times already, Guarantano — and a lot of his teammates — still have two years of eligibility after this.

Games like this are where programs begin. Pruitt’s program is in need of a kick-start, and Guarantano has looked at least so far like he’s the player to usher UT into that era. But this will be his most important test so far.

The redshirt sophomore from New Jersey can make every throw, and it is exciting how good he’s looked throwing the deep ball. That must continue as Tennessee tries to find Marquez Callaway and Josh Palmer downfield.

Guarantano needs to harness his emotions, play within himself and lead this Tennessee team to a win. He has the playmakers around him to do it, it’s just a matter of his line giving him the protection and him following through with the execution.

If Guarantano struggles, Tennessee will not win this football game.

Make Franks look like Franks

A year ago, Tennessee neutralized Feleipe Franks throughout much of the game, making him look cumbersome and uncomfortable. He simply hasn’t been a very good quarterback yet in his UF career, but this is what he is right now, and the Vols need to do everything they can to keep him from beating them.

The strong-armed quarterback’s Hail Mary stunned UT a year ago, so he’s had heroics against the Vols before. It can’t happen again. Dual-threat quarterbacks like Emory Jones don’t look like a threat to play, but UT needs to be on the lookout for any tricks Dan Mullen may have.

But they’ve got to pressure Franks more than they’ve done any quarterback yet this year and force him into quick decisions. If he has all day to sit back there, let his receivers get open and pick UT apart, it won’t be pretty for a young secondary.

Freshmen cornerbacks Bryce Thompson and Alontae Taylor need their biggest games, too.

Swingers

Two games ago against ETSU, the Vols got those game-changing plays with turnovers on defense. Though those were fewer and farther between against UTEP, an 81-yard scamper by Ty Chandler proved the Vols can still make some big plays.

But Florida isn’t ETSU or UTEP.

In the past, the Gators were the aggressor, making the big plays to beat the Vols in every game except for Tennessee’s ’16 win. The Vols have to do that on both sides of the ball, forcing UF’s awful offense into mistakes and getting some big-gainers on their own.

If they get this swinging plays in their favor — especially early — the Vols can ride that momentum to by far the biggest win of the Pruitt era.

***

I’ve gone back and forth with what I think about this game, but a night game at Neyland bodes well for the atmosphere, which bodes well for the Vols. We talked about hope, right? You’ve got to hope UT gets this one to keep its bowl hopes alive.

Tennessee 24, Florida 23

LOCKS

Oh, last week was bad. Thanks to Alabama and the Vanderbilt under, I didn’t get shut out, but — man, oh man — it wasn’t good. The Locks took a 2-5 hit on the week, dropping the season tally to 11-10. That’s the definition of mediocrity, and we must rebound, or you’ll quit following.

WHY ARE YOU BETTING, ANYWAY!? IT’S ILLEGAL!!

But seriously, yeah, it was an off week. We need some winners this week. Here they are, with minimal commentary.

  1. Oklahoma State (-12) over Texas Tech: Boise State, I believe, is one of the three best Group of Five teams in the country this year, and the Cowboys beat them 44-21. TTU can’t stop OSU, and while there may be eleventy-billion points scored here, OSU will have at least 13 more.
  2. Cincinnati (-7.5) over Ohio: Don’t look now, but the Fightin’ Luke Fickells are playing some good football. The Bearcats beat UCLA to open the season, shut out Miami Ohio and wore out Alabama A&M. They’re at least eight points better than the Bobcats.
  3. Baylor (-7.5) over Kansas: It’s a great story the Jayhawks have forced 12 turnovers to win back-to-back games. But the Bears are better. This is still Kansas, people.
  4. South Carolina (-2.5) over Vanderbilt: It helps the Commodores that they’re back at home, but that emotional loss to Notre Dame last week took a lot out of them. Carolina will be rusty after Hurricane Florence canceled their game against Marshall last week, but this line is way too small.
  5. Arizona at Oregon State under 75.5: While it looked like Khalil Tate and Kevin Sumlin finally clicked a little last week, this offense isn’t fixed. And Oregon State isn’t good enough offensively to throw up a ton of points. This will go way under.
  6. Wisconsin (-3.5) over Iowa: The BYU loss will sting for a long time, but I’ll take Paul Chryst in bounceback games every time.
  7. Arizona State (+17.5) over Washington: I still like the Sun Devils despite the 26-minute hiccup last week against San Diego State where they didn’t get a first down. It cost them that game, and now they’ve got to go on the road to the Pac-12 North favorites. The Huskies will win, but they are far from explosive, and this game will be closer than you think.

Let’s go rebound! And Go Vols!

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 151 – Vols-Gators

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GRT Podcast 9.19.18

NOTES

[00:03:55] Quick takes on the news items of the day.
[00:07:07] Our game predictions, and why.
[00:10:47] The list of priorities for the Vols against the Gators.
[00:19:10] Brad’s answers to this week’s Guessing Game questions.

TRANSCRIPT

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:12] This is the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast Episode 151. I’m Joel Hollingsworth and I’m with Brad Shepherd tonight. Brad you. You missed the milestone episode 150. What do you have to say for yourself.

Brad Shepard: [00:00:29] I feel like I’ve probably been a part of about 50 of those maybe 70 of those and

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:36] That’s a big . . .

Brad Shepard: [00:00:37] Since I’ve been blogging we’ve been pretty bad. So I would say probably 50 of those were sad podcasts so I hope you guys were a little bit uplifting on your 150

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:51] We did our best. We were talking about UTEP mostly so that helped. Although

Brad Shepard: [00:00:55] That does.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:00:56] We did get into a little bit of Florida but yeah it was a big milestone. We’re trying to figure out you know what is the gift for 150. Will thought it was candy I thought it was a sack of potatoes. Do you have an opinion.

Brad Shepard: [00:01:09] Oh sack of potatoes is a great answer because I love the sack of potatoes as we all know

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:16] I was spreading that rumor all over Twitter you know.

Brad Shepard: [00:01:22] Because of because of our head coach. Now I would say that a scan of the scan a can of Skoal or a scan

Brad Shepard: [00:01:29] Of coal. I don’t know what I don’t know what a scan of coal is but a can of Skoal was I think the gift for 150 podcast should be

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:37] Scan of coal. You know I mean that’s you know you just put it on the copier or you press the button and you send it to your e-mail. You know

Brad Shepard: [00:01:45] Scanned at Kohl’s maybe. I don’t know.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:01:47] There we go. All right. So anyway we’ve got we’ve got several Vols related things to get to tonight. So I want to get the warm up question out of the way first. Brad what is the what’s the best game that you’ve ever been to in person Vols or not. Do you have one that comes immediately to mind

Brad Shepard: [00:02:06] 1998 Tennessee Florida and I mean you know I’ve been to a lot of games a lot of good games but that game was it was the outcome that we all wanted. It was just you know the I mean history has has has really made it kind of stand out but from an atmosphere standpoint after game standpoint and it was just you know it was loud it was intense it was constant and then we were rewarded for it. It was just great. And as much as as much as the Arkansas game was awesome at the end that game was not fun at all.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:02:44] Is

Brad Shepard: [00:02:44] The

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:02:44] Arain

Brad Shepard: [00:02:45] Game

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:02:45] Right.

Brad Shepard: [00:02:46] It was it was awful. And even though you know it’s a little bit lesser on the scale but you know Tennessee Cal 2006 was was a whole lot of fun because the stadium was raucous and ready and and Tennessee really kind of poured it on. So there have been some good games and or been several of them but nothing really compares to 98 Tennessee Florida. For me

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:03:13] Yeah I was at that Cal game too and it was at the game where the guy from Cal was saying oh you know Neyland can’t be nothing. You know we have fans here too. We even have car flags or something like that.

Brad Shepard: [00:03:24] Yes.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:03:25] So

Brad Shepard: [00:03:26] Yeah.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:03:26] We ramped it up just a little bit just for him. Actually I had a young child in 98 so I didn’t see and I’m not sure I saw any games live that year except you know on TV live. So the one that I was at was. Was it 2016. Jauan Jennings Florida that was a good one. When we just finally started rolling against them that was that was awesome.

Brad Shepard: [00:03:55] Sure.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:03:55] So they were a bunch of stuff happened today. Defensive lineman Kingston Harris is moved to offensive line quickly. Good. Good move bad move just short answer.

Brad Shepard: [00:04:10] Not I’m not sure I mean I’ll like Kingston Harrison’s potential at defensive line. I think this is something that you know Pruitt is going to be known for his time at Tennessee I think that he’s going to look going to give guys extended positions to see if they can help and Harris definitely fits the bill from a size standpoint and Tennessee needs some help on that offensive line. If he’s ever going to be able to help this year. But you know what if he goes over there and he’s all of a sudden very good tennis he did that with Jashon Robertson and he pretty much

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:43] Yeah.

Brad Shepard: [00:04:44] caught on immediately and became Tennessee’s best offensive lineman for a while. So I got no problem trying it out especially considering Harris was not in the defensive line rotation as it was

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:04:54] Yeah it sort of really shines a light on the loss of Kennedy too. Maybe it’s just a numbers thing. He just needed another body over there. But you know I guess you gotta do what you gotta do. Also the hoops landed a five star point guard and Josiah James I don’t know anything about him yet except he’s a five star point guard. And if Rick Barnes can do what he’s done with the guys that he’s already had you start adding some blue chip talent into that lineup and watch out that’s going to be awesome. Quarte’ Sapp apparently will return to action this weekend. He’s been filling in I guess mostly and backup duty. Is that right. But having him

Brad Shepard: [00:05:35] Has been he’s had a bone bruise

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:05:36] Yeah.

Brad Shepard: [00:05:37] And

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:05:37] So he’ll be there and ready to help. But apart from the news you know the big thing is the Gators come to town this weekend. So it’s it’s a rivalry

Brad Shepard: [00:05:47] Pretty

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:05:47] Game

Brad Shepard: [00:05:47] Important

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:05:48] That is pretty important. It’s right up there with . . . I don’t know, class. And you know the things you’re supposed to say. So anyway the game.

Brad Shepard: [00:05:59] Yeah. There’s class.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:06:00] Yeah.

Brad Shepard: [00:06:01] It’s not quite as big as psych 101 but you know it’s pretty big

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:06:07] Well it’s not like you know if it was finals maybe maybe a different deal. But this seems

Brad Shepard: [00:06:11] Right.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:06:12] Like finals in the fourth week of the season. You know that’s kind of what Florida does to us. Right. So it’s a rivalry game it’s a night game. The schools released this awesome hype video with Admiral Schofield narrating that is just spectacular. Have you seen that yet.

Brad Shepard: [00:06:27] It is great. It’s great

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:06:29] It is awesome. He

Brad Shepard: [00:06:30] Yeah

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:06:30] Did

Brad Shepard: [00:06:30] I’m

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:06:30] A fantastic

Brad Shepard: [00:06:30] A big fan

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:06:31] Job.

Brad Shepard: [00:06:31] Of.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:06:31] He’s like a little actor or something that dude on that little bit you know.

Brad Shepard: [00:06:35] I mean that guy he is. He’s impressive at whatever he does. He’s just a just a top notch all around kid an ambassador to the program. I mean it’s it’s it’s very cool. Yeah everybody needs to watch that.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:06:48] Yeah love that dude. Everybody needs to watch that two or three times every day until Florida until the game. So on top of that it’s payback time. You know times two or four I’ve kind of lost count at this point. How many revenge things we owe them. But basically it’s

Brad Shepard: [00:07:07] Times 12 out of 13.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:07:07] A big game. Times 12 out of 13 that’ll do it. It’s a big game. So my my statsy preview machine I ran it tonight. It’s weighed in it’s calling for a close one. It says Tennessee 23 Florida 22 win for the good guys. So that’s that’s that’s going to be my prediction it goes live in the morning. So Brad what are you expecting he expected a close one. Not a close one yet another new and thrilling way to develop nausea. What do you think.

Brad Shepard: [00:07:40] It’s really unbelievable that that’s what the machine spit out that that’s what you’re predicting because I literally just finished writing my locks and keys column because I’m out of out of pocket tomorrow night and probably night. So I went ahead and got that in the hopper and of course as longtime readers know up with a prediction in there and predicted it. Tennessee 24 to 23. So

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:08:03] All right. Well there

Brad Shepard: [00:08:05] That’s

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:08:05] You go.

Brad Shepard: [00:08:06] Pretty crazy that it’s that close. I mean so I’m feeling at one point close victory like that. You know it’s I mean it’s it really could go either way. And that’s what that’s what’s great about the game this year. And you know everybody wants to talk about well this could be could be the battle for last in the EAst and we talked about that last week

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:08:27] Know

Brad Shepard: [00:08:27] In a couple days ago actually feels like last week. But you know I mean move beyond that is still Tennessee still very important to us. Very important to them. It’s actually in my opinion. And I called this out too. I think it’s probably the most important Tennessee Florida game in in several years and it’s not because it’s for the east but it’s really because we know that Tennessee and Florida are the two programs in the east that have the resources that have the the pedigree to have the history that have you know the recruiting ability to step up and play with Georgia and they’re not going to this year. But this is step one toward reclaiming that status and whether it be Florida wins and they use that as a catapult and you know start recruiting better. And you know it look good for Mullen’s you know kind of a notch in his belt for his first season or whether Pruitt can kind of get an early signature win I call it what you will. This might not be a really good Florida team but it’s still Florida. So an early signature win in Tennessee you can use that on the recruiting trail. But you know the bottom line is is that these teams needed for bowl eligibility more than anything especially

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:09:45] Yeah.

Brad Shepard: [00:09:46] After Tennessee loses to West Virginia and Florida loses to Kentucky. When you look at those upcoming schedules you know Florida’s got LSU you every year like we’ve got Alabama every year and those look like definite losses this year for both teams and so when in Tennessee obviously has to play Auburn and in Georgia. And you know it’s it’s just it looks like and with Kentucky and for Kentucky and Vanderbilt and Missouri and South Carolina being better than what they’ve been in recent years if Tennessee loses this game you’re looking at having to win three out of four. And that’s that’s tough. I mean that’s I don’t want to say it’s impossible but it’s improbable at this point. So the winner of this game both of these teams need a win not only to get the program started not only to look good in recruiting not only to make your fans feel better about the hire you made but to make it to the postseason this year. I think it’s a vital game for both programs.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:10:47] So what does the list of priorities look like for the Vols this weekend. Maybe top three. What’s at the top of the list.

Brad Shepard: [00:10:57] The top of the list is protecting Guarantano because you know that’s Jarrett’s proven that he can throw them that he can throw the ball he’s actually look good against pressure this year at times. But we all saw what this offense could be like in the first few snaps of that West Virginia game. If they don’t get you know good proper protection. And I feel like this Florida pass rush is much better than West Virginia’s pass rush. So you know it’s to get C.C. Jefferson. But I mean he was back last week but he comes back in full strength this week. They’ve already got Jabari Zuniga over on the other edge. So they’ve got two legit pass rushers not elite pass rushers but legit pass rushers they can get pressure on Tennessee and quite frankly as I talked about in the locks and keys column tomorrow. I mean Drew Drew Richmond and Trey Smith. Neither been very good this year and that’s something that Tennessee has really desperately got to improve on the edges in this game to protect Gurantano and if they do feel like that Guarantano has enough weapons and has proven he can make all the throws that Tennessee can really get some things in the passing game because or are secondary. It’s not what we’re used to Florida’s secondary being. So if if he just has time to throw the football. Tennessee is going to be able to make some plays downfield and that’s going to be vitally important to not only maintaining these drives but also some of those flash plays that Tennessee not had against Florida. They did a couple years ago but they’ve not consistently had this long period of you know being worse than the Gators. So I think that that’s important. The offensive line, number one. Number two.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:12:44] Let me

Brad Shepard: [00:12:44] I

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:12:44] Stop

Brad Shepard: [00:12:44] Know

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:12:45] You

Brad Shepard: [00:12:45] That.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:12:45] Right there just for a second.

Brad Shepard: [00:12:45] Yes. For sure

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:12:47] You mentioned that Florida’s secondary is not what we’re used to. Why is that because a lot of us are just focused on Tennessee. Can you elaborate on Florida’s secondary.

Brad Shepard: [00:12:57] Well they’re just younger. I mean they’re not. There’s not a lot of proven players out there and you know they’ve got they’ve got some guys back there. But you know they don’t have the they don’t have the really elite players back there that they’ve had in the recent past. And it’s and it’s. And frankly McElwain you know even struggled to recruit those guys in the last couple years so some of the guys that they’ve got back there that are young and talented are not quite as talented as we’ve seen in the past so you know they’re they’re kind of scrambling around back there too. Now they’ve got some players. I’m not I’m not I mean Florida’s always going to have players were always going to have athletes but you know they’ve got some guys. I mean Kentucky has a JUCO quarterback Terry Wilson who’s a sophomore who is really been one of the bright spots in the SEC so far this year so I’m not taking anything away from him but his knock coming in to UK was was accuracy and that kid shredded Florida. I mean he had time to throw the football. Of course, he’s a mobile quarterback. So he moved the pocket around and was able to kind of create some space for himself and really just dissected that defense and that secondary. So you know Guarantano can move his feet around around a little bit. We saw a little bit of that in the UTEP game if he can kind of get in some passing lanes and see some some receivers clearly. I mean I think Tennessee is going to be able to move the football through the air against Florida.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:14:26] All right. Thanks for that. Second priority then.

Brad Shepard: [00:14:30] Second priority. I know that we talked the other night about about Felipe Franks and how he’s actually been better against the blitz but I’m never going to go into a game say it as he doesn’t need to pressure the quarterback. They’ve got to get more pressure on Franks than what they’ve done with the other quarterbacks. Yeah and make him make quick decisions because I just don’t think that he’s consistently going to be good at that. And Tennessee Florida Florida doesn’t have a lot of the game breaking receivers. They don’t have the Antonio Calloway on their team. They don’t have the Percy Harvin from the past. They’ve got good possession guys. Freddie Swain who Tennessee lead for for a long time in the recruiting process is probably Florida’s best receiver and he’s kind of I don’t want to say he’s a possession guy because he also returned last week for a touchdown but he’s not your game breaker player that you’re used to Florida having so you know I think that if Tennessee can to Frank he’s going to go to a safety valve a lot more. And you know Tennessee could make some plays on the back end if they’re if they’re fortunate. They do you know they kind of are the opportunistic team they were against ETSU Florida is by no means ETSU. But you do want to try to get Franks in a situation where he feels like he’s got to get rid of the ball quickly. And when that happens I don’t see him consistently being a good quarterback and then

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:55] I

Brad Shepard: [00:15:56] You know to me.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:57] I feel

Brad Shepard: [00:15:57] Yeah.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:15:58] I feel compelled to point out that Tyrie Cleveland looks like maybe he can get behind a defense and

Brad Shepard: [00:16:04] Yeah

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:04] Just

Brad Shepard: [00:16:05] She

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:05] Have just

Brad Shepard: [00:16:05] Does. But but but he’s inconsistent. He does. And you’re right I

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:11] He’s the

Brad Shepard: [00:16:11] Kind

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:11] Guy

Brad Shepard: [00:16:11] Of

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:11] That

Brad Shepard: [00:16:12] Glossed

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:12] Did it last

Brad Shepard: [00:16:12] Over

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:12] Year

Brad Shepard: [00:16:12] Cleveland.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:12] I had on the last play.

Brad Shepard: [00:16:14] Yeah. I mean

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:15] Ok.

Brad Shepard: [00:16:15] But but he’s he’s so yeah. I just kind of blocked that from my mind.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:20] Good for

Brad Shepard: [00:16:20] But

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:20] You.

Brad Shepard: [00:16:21] He got

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:21] That’s

Brad Shepard: [00:16:21] Behind that he got behind the Butch Jones defense. So I mean I’m not you know whatever but

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:16:25] Ok.

Brad Shepard: [00:16:26] But you know he’s he’s so inconsistent. I mean he’s he’s the kind of player that can be too sure. I mean you can but he’s not he’s not the blazer that’s going to go down there and be open five or six times downfield he’s just not that guy. And so you know I mean I feel I think Tennessee matches up fairly well with Florida’s receivers really especially when they’ve got their more athletic group out there. I may not I’m not on the Baylen Buchanan train by any stretch of the imagination but you know I wonder if Tennessee is so they’ve had two really good Bryce Thompson gangs in a row. Alontae Taylor even though he’s let receivers get behind him a couple times he’s shown some flashes. I’m not sure that this is not the game where they just put those kids out there because they’re the better athletes. I mean so we’ll see. I mean I’m not saying Buchanans not going to have a role in this game. Absolutely. But you know Tennessee is going I’m not sure that Tennessee’s going to blitz a ton. And so they’re going to try to get pressure with four or five and then you know kind to kind of lay back because I’m not sure that they feel like Florida can beat them passing the football. If Florida can more power to them but I’m not sure Florida can either. So that’s that’s going to be an encouraging or encouraging that’s going to be an interesting chess match to watch there. And then the third the third thing is really this is the most important thing we’re talking about my keys but you guys still need to read the column tomorrow.

Brad Shepard: [00:17:51] But but the most important thing is Tennessee absolutely has to get out to a quick start to a quick start. You score a touchdown early. That crowd that game at Neyland stadium that that 12th man kind of thing. I mean everybody’s going to be lathered up and excited and it’s going to be you know kind of hot. I mean it’s just going to be it’s all this just all of that kind of momentum. I mean that place is electrifying quickly especially in a game like that. So I mean if Tennessee. You know the crowd is going to be into it early. And if they keep the crowd into it you know Florida’s offense is bad and that offense already being bad is going to struggle to get any kind of rhythm going. If they can’t hear themselves think as we all know Neyland has that ability to get that loud and to stay that loud especially for a game that’s this important so I think it’s it’s very important for the fans to get their brand full voice and be ready and I think they will be because I think everybody realizes this this year is not going to be quote unquote special but this is a very important game to maximize the potential of this season. And I think that you’re going to hear that tomorrow I’m sorry Saturday not in Neyland Stadium

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:19:10] All right. So we do this guessing game on the website for the community on Fridays. So I got the questions here and I know you’re going to you’re going to field these cold so we won’t hold you

Brad Shepard: [00:19:23] Oh

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:19:23] To

Brad Shepard: [00:19:24] My

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:19:24] It. But just wanted your sorta off the cuff responses to these so the first question is which is greater Tennessee’s rushing yards or Florida’s passing yards.

Brad Shepard: [00:19:39] Oh well I would say Florida passing yards. Tennessee’s I think Tennessee established a run against UTEP established that they want to run the football and that they expect to run the football that they know they’re going to have to run the football to be to win these important games. I think Tennessee will do an ok job running the ball. But you know what’s an OK job against Florida. I mean you know I see Tennessee maybe rushing or you know 140 yards maybe. I mean if that’s if they I think if Tennessee rushes for 140 yards, 140 to 150 yards they win the football game and you know Florida. Even though Florida is not going to blow Tennessee out of the water passing the football you’ve got to think against that young secondary they’re going to go for more than that so I say Florida passing yards

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:20:32] All right. You know I think as I was researching this I’m pretty sure that I came across the fact that Charleston Southern ran for 222 yards on them and

Brad Shepard: [00:20:45] Oh my gosh.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:20:46] I know I looked at that and I fact checked it three times and I still think it’s wrong. I still think that I must have read it wrong because that sounds really high. So before it actually goes live tomorrow I’m going to check it again. But if that’s right then you know there is some promise there. So anyway

Brad Shepard: [00:21:05] Sure. Absolutely.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:21:06] It’s is probably wrong because you know it’s late it’s late on Wednesday night as we’re recording so you know and I’m old

Brad Shepard: [00:21:12] We’re going with it being right.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:21:14] There you go. All right. Next question who scored the first touchdown for the Vols. Ty Chandler, another running back, a wide receiver, or somebody else.

Brad Shepard: [00:21:25] Oh man. Whoscores the first touchdown for the Vols. Oh that’s a great question. So many options. I think Tennessee. I think Tennessee is going to hit a pretty big play early. I’m going to go with Marquez Callaway

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:21:43] All right a wide receiver I didn’t even make you choose a guy just anybody in the receiving corps except

Brad Shepard: [00:21:48] Yeah we’re going to go with the receiver

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:21:49] All

Brad Shepard: [00:21:49] And

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:21:49] Right.

Brad Shepard: [00:21:49] I’m going to go I’m going to be specific. I’m going to say Callaway on a deep ball from Guarantano.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:21:55] Right. You know Palmer’s

Brad Shepard: [00:21:56] Maybe not a

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:21:56] Been

Brad Shepard: [00:21:57] Ball but you know more

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:21:58] Because

Brad Shepard: [00:21:58] Than 15 yards

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:21:59] Palmer’s been getting the deep balls. Right. But

Brad Shepard: [00:22:02] Yeah.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:02] You

Brad Shepard: [00:22:02] Well

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:02] Know

Brad Shepard: [00:22:03] Both those guys yeah. I mean that’s that’s encouraging. Tennessee’s got a couple of deep threats.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:07] Yeah

Brad Shepard: [00:22:07] I think

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:08] I think when I

Brad Shepard: [00:22:09] Really

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:09] Answer this

Brad Shepard: [00:22:09] Like Palmer’s progression.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:11] Was the

Brad Shepard: [00:22:12] They are really like Palmer’s progression. David Johnson is the truth at wide receivers coach. He’s already getting more out of those guys than we’ve seen over the receiving corps since the Dooley days.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:24] Yup yup he’s good. Scuse me I think I’m going to go with another running back

Brad Shepard: [00:22:32] Who are

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:33] Just because it’s the field against Ty Chandler I guess so.

Brad Shepard: [00:22:38] You know I wanted to say Banks but I’m not you know I’m not sure Banks is going to get the ball after that fumble. I mean this kind of game he will some think he’s going to have a role but I like that pick. I think that Tennessee could give it to Madre down there at the goal line.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:52] Yeah. Or you know Jordan too.

Brad Shepard: [00:22:55] To

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:56] All

Brad Shepard: [00:22:56] Be

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:22:56] Right.

Brad Shepard: [00:22:56] Jordan tap dances a little too much for me around there but whatever

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:23:00] He does. Yeah they got after him for bouncing it outside too much too right. And that’s.

Brad Shepard: [00:23:06] Yeah man this is going to be this is going to sound terrible but I’m an offensive lineman. I mean dude run straight up my tail. That is what you need is a running back. Push me into the end zone like I’m blocking for you

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:23:19] That’s

Brad Shepard: [00:23:19] Run

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:23:19] Why

Brad Shepard: [00:23:19] Over me

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:23:20] That’s why I think that Banks started getting so many carriages because Jordan was down there against. I think it was ETSU. Yeah. And so he bounced something outside at the goal line he got yanked immediately yelled at and Banks went in there and ran it straight up the middle and got a touchdown. And then he did

Brad Shepard: [00:23:40] Absolute

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:23:40] It again on the next one. So yeah but that’s the great thing about competition is is it provides coaching and learning opportunities to your guys because I bet Jordan is going to learn that. So. All right. Third question who leads at halftime the Vols the Gators or nobody.

Brad Shepard: [00:24:00] I think Tennessee’s got to score early and keep that momentum to win the game and since I picked them to win the game I’m going to say Tennessee leads at halftime. I think they’re going to lead. You know I think it’s going to be a good little lead and you know Florida’s going to score early in the second half and kind of make it a football game. But I mean if I’m going to stick with my Tennessee prediction I say the Vols lead at the break.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:24:23] All right. Well we’re out of time. That’s Brad Shepard and that’s going to do it for the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. As always please subscribe. I said please please rate please review. Those things are are all nice for us and we like them very much. And you also get bonus points if you use the phrase does a duck pull a truck. Let’s use that one tonight. That worked. What was that there was two years ago.

Brad Shepard: [00:24:54] It was two years ago.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:24:55] All right. OK good. So for Brad Shepard I’m Joel Hollingsworth and this has been the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast.

Brad Shepard: [00:25:13] Going to be fishing on Friday and a concert that night and so I’m not gonna be

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:17] Are you going to

Brad Shepard: [00:25:18] Out

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:18] See

Brad Shepard: [00:25:18] Of pocket.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:18] Taylor Swift

Brad Shepard: [00:25:18] So

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:18] Again.

Brad Shepard: [00:25:20] I’m not I’m going to send Jason Isbell in Asheville and John Moreland too. And that’s

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:27] In

Brad Shepard: [00:25:27] He’s

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:27] Asheville.

Brad Shepard: [00:25:28] He’s awesome

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:29] How long of a drive

Brad Shepard: [00:25:29] Asheville

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:30] Is that

Brad Shepard: [00:25:30] North

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:30] For

Brad Shepard: [00:25:30] Carolina.

Joel Hollingsworth: [00:25:30] You.

Brad Shepard: [00:25:32] It’s five hours.

Tennessee-Florida statsy preview: Buckle up for an exciting finish

We have three weeks’ worth of 2018 data so far, so while we’re creeping up on looking exclusively at what teams have done so far this year, we still need to be a bit wary of that data and to mitigate those concerns with appropriate amounts of last year’s leftovers and this year’s gut.

So let’s get to it. First, the predictions, and below them, the details:

Predictions

Tennessee 23, Florida 22

Tennessee rushing yards: 210

Florida rushing yards: 140

Tennessee passing yards: 160

Florida passing yards: 220

Tennessee rushing

Tennessee is averaging 221.3 rushing yards per game so far in 2018. That number is probably a little inflated due to the competition, even when you include West Virginia, who’s not known for its defense.

Florida is giving up 198.3 rushing yards per game. Their season-long average in 2017 was better — 153.9 yards per game. This season, the Gators held Colorado State to 70 rushing yards, but gave up 222 to Charleston Southern, a number so surprising I felt compelled to check it three times and still don’t believe it’s right.

Tennessee got 345 rushing yards against UTEP (averaging 289), 190 against ETSU (FCS), and 129 against West Virginia (averaging 172).

Based on all of that, my guess for rushing yards for Tennessee against Florida is 210.

Florida rushing

The Tennessee defense is allowing 112.7 rushing yards per game so far this season, while the Florida run game is averaging 185.0 yards per game. Last year, those numbers were 251.3 and 156.4, significantly worse for Tennessee, and worse for Florida.

So far, the Vols have held teams to far below their season averages on the ground. West Virginia is averaging 203.5 rushing yards per game, and they put up 118 against the Vols. Go ahead and chalk that up to a passing game that didn’t need help from the running backs, but UTEP was averaging 154 and got only 95 against the Vols in Neyland.

Based on all of that, I’m guessing the Gators will get maybe 140 yards rushing against Tennessee.

Tennessee passing

This season, Tennessee is averaging 187.7 passing yards per game, and Florida is allowing 131.3. That’s better than last year for Tennessee (173.7) and much better for Florida (195.4).

If you put more weight on this year’s numbers, this will be the best pass defense the Vols have played so far this season. Tennessee put up 172 against West Virginia, who’s allowing 164.5 passing yards per game so far this season.

My guess, then, is that Tennessee will end up with somewhere around 160 passing yards this weekend.

Florida passing

After a disastrous start, the Tennessee pass defense is now allowing a better 179.0 passing yards per game. After allowing 429 to West Virginia (which is averaging 382.5), the Vols allowed only 69 to ETSU and 39 to UTEP, the latter of which is averaging 96.3.

Florida is averaging 197.3 passing yards per game so far this season, a bit better than the 179.5 they averaged in 2017.

Based on all of that, my expectation for the Vols’ passing defense in this game is that they’ll likely give up somewhere around 220 passing yards to Florida.

Tennessee scoring

After three games this season, the Vols are averaging 32.3 points per game. Their average last season was 19.8.

The Gators are currently allowing only 14.3 points per game this season, about half of what they managed last year.

The Vols scored only 14 points against West Virginia, then racked up 59 against ETSU before putting up 24 against UTEP. The averages for those teams so far this year are 15.5, 30, and 35.3. Meanwhile, Florida held Charleston Southern to 6 and Colorado State to 10, but gave up 27 to Kentucky.

I’m uncomfortable with the fact that Tennessee scored only 14 on the Mountaineers and 24 on UTEP, but there were more points on the table against the Miners, and I’m blaming first-game jitters and adjustments for the game against the Mountaineers. I’m also thinking that if Kentucky can get 27 on the Gators in the Swamp, we can get at least 23 in Neyland. So, I first narrowed it down to somewhere between 18 and 24, and I settled on 23 because woo.

Florida scoring

Tennessee is allowing 14.3 points per game so far in 2018, less than half of its 2017 number of 29.1. This year’s number has ETSU (3) and UTEP (0) in it, but it also has West Virginia (40) included, so it’s not just the competition.

Florida’s offense is averaging 39.0 points per game this year after averaging only 22.1 all of last year. They scored 53 against Charleston Southern and 48 against Colorado State, but only 16 against Kentucky.

With that, I’m setting the expectation for Florida’s points against the Vols at 22.

Comparison of predictions to other models and Vegas

So, I’m going with Vols 23, Gators 22.

Bill Connelly’s S&P+ is in line with my prediction, basically characterizing it as a toss-up. Its projected score is Florida 28.5, Tennessee 28.2, a 50.6% chance of winning for the Gators.

The Vegas spread, however, favors Florida by between 4.5 and 5, with an over/under of 46.5-47, which converts to something like Florida 26, Tennessee 21.

ESPN’s FPI is also closer to Vegas, giving the Vols only a 29.1% chance of winning.