Not quite 24 hours later, my count-to-10 impression actually hasn’t changed much from what I wrote immediately after the Vols-Gators game last night. The stats aren’t as bad as you might think, but the turnovers are awful and, worse, too many of the turnovers are attributable to an apparently incurable cause.
So, do we feel worse about the team’s 2018 prospects today than we did last week? Yes. How much worse? More than we want to dwell on?
Not only that, but Tennessee’s upcoming opponents all look like what Will is calling the very best versions of themselves. The forecast post-Florida is quite gloomy indeed.
My new expected win total after Week 4 is 4.55, down from 5.5 last week. I have Georgia and Alabama at 5% (down from 10%), Auburn steady at 15%, Kentucky and South Carolina at 25% (down from 40%), Missouri steady at 40%, Vanderbilt as a toss-up, and Charlotte at 90% (down from 95%).
Use the form below to calculate yours and post it in the comments below the post.
Explanations are below, but here’s the updated chart for this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
- Lost to #17 WVU*, 40-14
- Beat ETSU, 59-3
- Beat UTEP, 24-0
- Lost to Florida, 47-21
- #2 Georgia, TBD
- #9 Auburn, TBD
- #1 Alabama, TBD
- S Carolina, TBD
- Charlotte, TBD
- Kentucky, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
The Vols’ past opponents
West Virginia Mountaineers
Current record: 3-0 (1-0), 1st in Big 12
- Beat Tennessee*, 40-14
- Beat YSU, 52-17
- NC State, Canceled
- Beat Kansas St, 35-6
- Texas Tech, 12:00 PM ET
- Kansas, TBD
- Iowa State, TBD
- Baylor, 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1
- Texas, TBD
- #17 TCU, TBD
- #15 Oklahoma St, TBD
- #5 Oklahoma, 8:00 PM ET
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Current record: 3-1 (2-0), 1st in Southern
- Beat Mars Hill, 28-7
- Lost to Tennessee, 59-3
- Beat VMI, 27-24
- Beat Furman, 29-27
- Chattanooga, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Gardner-Webb, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
- The Citadel, 2:00 PM ET
- Wofford, 1:30 PM ET ESPN+
- W Carolina, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Mercer, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
- Samford, 1:00 PM ET
UTEP Miners
Current record: 0-4 (0-0), 2nd in C-USA – West
- Lost to N Arizona, 30-10
- Lost to UNLV, 52-24
- Lost to Tennessee, 24-0
- Lost to New Mexico St, 27-20
- UTSA, 7:00 PM ET ESPN+
- North Texas, 7:30 PM ET
- LA Tech, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
- UAB, 7:30 PM ET ESPN+
- Rice, 3:30 PM ET
- MTSU, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
- W Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
- Southern Miss, 3:00 PM ET ESPN+
Florida Gators
Current record: 3-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – East
- Beat Charleston So, 53-6
- Lost to Kentucky, 27-16
- Beat Colorado St, 48-10
- Beat Tennessee, 47-21
- #14 Miss St, 6:00 PM ET
- #6 LSU, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- #2 Georgia*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
- Missouri, TBD
- S Carolina, TBD
- Idaho, TBD
- Florida State, TBD
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – East
- Beat Austin Peay, 45-0
- Beat #24 S Carolina, 41-17
- Beat MTSU, 49-7
- Beat Missouri, 43-29
- Tennessee, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- #6 LSU, TBD
- Florida*, 3:30 PM ET CBS
- Kentucky, TBD
- #9 Auburn, TBD
- UMass, TBD
- Georgia Tech, TBD
Auburn Tigers
Current record: 3-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – West
- Beat #6 Washington*, 21-16
- Beat Alabama St, 63-9
- Lost to #12 LSU, 22-21
- Beat Arkansas, 34-3
- Southern Miss, 4:00 PM ET
- #14 Miss St, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- Ole Miss, TBD
- #22 Texas A&M, TBD
- #2 Georgia, TBD
- Liberty, TBD
- #1 Alabama, TBD
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – West
- Beat Louisville*, 51-14
- Beat Arkansas St, 57-7
- Beat Ole Miss, 62-7
- Beat #22 Texas A&M, 45-23
- Louisiana, 12:00 PM ET
- Arkansas, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- #6 LSU, TBD
- #14 Miss St, TBD
- The Citadel, TBD
- #9 Auburn, TBD
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 2-1 (1-1), 3rd in SEC – East
- Beat C. Carolina, 49-15
- Lost to #3 Georgia, 41-17
- Marshall, Canceled
- Beat Vanderbilt, 37-14
- Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET
- Missouri, TBD
- #22 Texas A&M, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- Ole Miss, TBD
- Florida, TBD
- Chattanooga, TBD
- #3 Clemson, TBD
Charlotte 49ers
Current record: 2-2 (1-0), 1st in C-USA – East
- Beat Fordham, 34-10
- Lost to App St, 45-9
- Beat Old Dominion, 28-25
- Lost to UMass, 49-31
- UAB, 7:00 PM ET
- W Kentucky, 3:30 PM ET ESPN+
- MTSU, 3:00 PM ET
- Southern Miss, 2:00 PM ET
- Tennessee, TBD
- Marshall, 2:30 PM ET ESPN+
- FIU, 2:00 PM ET
- FAU, 6:00 PM ET
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 4-0 (2-0), 1st in SEC – East
- Beat Cent Michigan, 35-20
- Beat #25 Florida, 27-16
- Beat Murray State, 48-10
- Beat #14 Miss St, 28-7
- S Carolina, 7:30 PM ET
- #22 Texas A&M, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- #2 Georgia, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- MTSU, TBD
- Louisville, TBD
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East
- Beat UT Martin, 51-14
- Beat Wyoming, 40-13
- Beat Purdue, 40-37
- Lost to #2 Georgia, 43-29
- S Carolina, TBD
- #1 Alabama, TBD
- Memphis, TBD
- Kentucky, TBD
- Florida, TBD
- Vanderbilt, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
- Arkansas, 2:30 PM ET CBS
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 5th in SEC – East
- Beat MTSU, 35-7
- Beat Nevada, 41-10
- Lost to #8 Notre Dame, 22-17
- Lost to S Carolina, 37-14
- Tennessee St, 4:00 PM ET
- #2 Georgia, TBD
- Florida, TBD
- Kentucky, TBD
- Arkansas, TBD
- Missouri, TBD
- Ole Miss, TBD
- Tennessee, TBD
Pre-season: 5.12
Post-WVU: 4.98
Post-ETSU: 4.84
Post-UTEP: 4.65
Now: 4.01
FWIW, I have enjoyed this exercise and tracking how my expectations have adjusted.
I have, too. And thanks for keeping track of your weeklies, which reminds me of wanting to do it for all the submissions.
4.79
Yeah even I have to admit that I’m having trouble finding a bowl trip.
4.38 down from 5.88 if I remember correctly.
My projected win total is 4.2… sadly it will take the upset of only one “SEC” opponent. I HOPE Saturday turnovers were somewhat of an aberration and it will not be consistently repeated… I am still with you Big Orange… Go Vols!
Sadly I’m at a 2.95 down from my last projection of 6.00 before the after the ETSU game
It’s going to get a lot worse before things can get better.
Down to 4.32 🙁