Assess the damage to your expectations here

Tennessee’s shocking season-opening loss to the Georgia State Panthers Saturday was a gut-punch to our expectations for the 2019 Vols in Jeremy Pruitt’s second season. In our most recent podcast, we said it was like the sucker punch that killed Houdini.

How exactly do you recalibrate expectations under these circumstances? On one hand, if you just lost a game you were 95% sure you were going to win, logic will sit there and calmly explain to you that you should also lose any game you were less certain to win. And just like that, there goes every game except maybe Chattanooga, which itself becomes more of a coin flip than a sure thing.

On the other hand, we also know both from intuition and experience that logic doesn’t understand college football. When people put on their colors and kids start chasing balls designed to bounce funny, logic is often relegated to simply shrugging its shoulders.

You have to look at the hard data you have, no matter how disturbing it might be. But you also have to look at the softer data that makes more sense. How do you strike the balance?

Me? Today? I tend toward the middle, so I’m inclined to think that a significant adjustment to expectations is warranted but that it shouldn’t all just go in the trash can. But I also think that if we’re going to re-assess our expectations weekly, it makes the most sense to do it based primarily on the prior week’s results. If next week is better, we can account for that next week. Please, please, pretty please, let’s account for that next week.

So, with all of that, my current win total expectation for the Vols is . . . welp . . . 2.87, down from 6.6 last week. This will move significantly again next week if the evidence against BYU suggests that Georgia State was a fluke. Please, please, pretty please let it be a fluke.

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87

Details: Alabama and Georgia at 1%. Florida at 10%. I’ve moved Kentucky, Missouri, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt all from toss-ups to 20%. I’ve changed BYU and UAB from 80% to toss-ups. And I now have Chattanooga at 75% instead of 95%. Oof.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Explanations are below, but here’s a table with my updated expectations:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 0-1 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in the Sun Belt East

The Vols’ future opponents

BYU Cougars

Current record: 0-1 (0-0)

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 1-0 (1-0), 1st in the SEC East

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 0-1 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

UAB Blazers

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 0-1 (0-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-1 (0-1), 7th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations heading into Week 1?

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 154 – More group therapy

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Robo-Transcript below.

Pardon the errors, as the bot understands neither southern accents nor football.

Joel:
This is the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast, episode 154. I am Joel Hollingsworth and I am once again joined tonight by my brother in arms. Will Shelton, Will anything interesting happen this weekend?

Will:
You know, when in doubt, go back to the thing that you are best at and the thing that we are best at is group therapy. So here. Here we are. This is a different kind of therapy, I think, than than we’ve encountered. I know people want to go back to the Wyoming game, but that was a whole other you know, the deed was really done at that point. When Tennessee lost to Wyoming in 2008. And so I was I was a sophomore in high school when Tennessee lost to Memphis in 1996. Joel, what were you doing in 1996?

Joel:
1996, I had just started Tennessee Law School.

Will:
Ok. So you were around. But.

Joel:
I was around that was just just getting the just, getting the buzz and the bug.

Will:
Yeah. Fun fact about that game, too. That was the first Tyson Holyfield fight was that night. Later that night when Tennessee lost to Memphis, not the ear biting one, but the first one, there was actually a really good fight. So anyway, that’s that’s how long you have to go back to find. I think anything like this. And yet it’s it feels familiar just because of everything else that’s happened over the last eleven years. So, you know, there’s there’s a small part in here where us and other folks should we should never, ever say again, we don’t need to talk Georgia State or, you know, let’s let’s give that the old one hundred percent in the. The expected win total machine butts. Yeah. This is a this is a different conversation than I thought we were gonna have today.

Joel:
Yeah. And so, you know, just for posterity so we can make sure we have the context for for the time that we’re going to, you know, 10 years from now, we’ll want to come back and listen to this, I’m sure.

Will:
Sure.

Joel:
Right. So, yeah, it was they kicked off their 20 19 season season of much anticipation. It’s Jeremy Pruitt’s second year at the helm. We’re hoping for and expecting that infamous year to bump or riding high from solid recruiting class. Fully. Highly talented dudes. They filled need. We’re feeling good about a couple of splash coordinator hires stealing Jim Chaney from Georgia, you know, helping us and hurting them at the same time. Woo! And luring Derek Ainsley from the NFL as Oakland Raiders. We’ve got a more manageable schedule. We can ease into it a little bit before the real challenges come. And then Saturday we lost to the Georgia state Panthers at home 38 to 30. And really, it wasn’t even that close. Was it?

Will:
Oh, no. You know, I don’t know for people that didn’t watch the game. If you just saw the score and we’re kind of like, oh yeah, it’s thirty eight twenty three until there’s literally two seconds left in the game. So. Yeah.

Joel:
Yeah. So, you know, it’s basically was kind of like the unexpected gut punch that killed Houdini? You remember that?

Will:
I do.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I was I was a fan and my my growing up day as I read lots of books about that. It’s a good metaphor for this.

Joel:
It was, although, you know, it

Will:
His

Joel:
Actually

Will:
Muscles, it was that.

Joel:
Is what’s a.

Will:
He didn’t tighten his muscles. I read that version of it in one story when the guy hit him, he wasn’t set like he hadn’t locked up his core yet or whatever.

Joel:
Yeah, yeah,

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Yeah. That’s what killed Houdini. Although, you know, they say there really was it was appendix, so there was something wrong, bad, wrong inside anyway. And it just got irritated by the sucker punch, which, you know, there might be some similar metaphor there as well. But anyway, you know, basically it was not a good day is what we’re saying. Right. Saturday was not not a good day. But actually, before we get too deep into that, I wanted to ask you, what is it that you do after a disappointing game like that? And how do you spend the rest of your Saturday, what you do on Sunday, to sort of cope in a healthy, mature. What are you, 38 now? Forty something.

Will:
Almost almost 38. Yeah.

Joel:
Almost 38 in a in a 38 year old way.

Will:
Well, you know, most folks this is this. No, my my real job is a United Methodist pastor. So, you know, I have to. I have to do this in theory. Some of my most important work on Sunday mornings. So that part has been helpful for me. I’m going to pastor as long as I’ve been well, 10 days longer than I’ve been a blogger. And so I’ve always had that rhythm of church starts at the same time, no matter what happens. And let’s stop the line. I’ve heard Wilkerson use, John Ward use. You know, it’s bad. Saturday is of of the past. And so that has been helpful for me since 2006 in terms of perspective and things like that. I hope this is maturity and not just age, but, you know, I have on the one hand, my son is getting ready to turn to and so that is my wife. Six years ago when we got married at the start of the Butch Jones tenure and then Covington, my son. So it’s really helpful to have them around and have family around that you love and care about and can spend time with. The flip side of that is, man. I did. I laid awake last night and thought about, you know, how in trying to think of how long is this gonna go on like this thing that is such a big part of my my life and was such a big part of my childhood in part because I grew up at a really good time in Knoxville.

Will:
But, Mike, is this thing going to be here for my son? You know, is this if we have we mess this up so badly that when he comes of age here in five or six years, to really start knowing what’s going on, that it’s just not going to be saying it’s not the same as it was when I was growing up is is an understatement. You know, I’m worried about are people going to show up for these games anymore? You know, are we are we in a really bad way? So, you know, I think family helps. I quit watching. I didn’t watch a second of Auburn or Oregon. I just wasn’t interested in football anymore. Yesterday I did. I watched the Braves. Today, I did go back to watching sports today, but I haven’t said right. Right now, I’m watching Rogue One on mute on TV. Yes. And not watching Houston and and Oklahoma. So. And the game tomorrow is not very good. So I don’t I don’t know that I’ll go back to to to watching it until Thursday. So that’s just kind of get people around you who make your life better no matter what. Tennessee does is the best piece of advice I can give you. And, you know, most people work Monday through Friday. They don’t get to get up and do something that they love and are passionate about no matter what happens on Saturday. So in that sense, I’m very grateful for my job.

Joel:
So not to make you more depressed, but you mentioning is this still gonna be here for my kids? I have that window is closed for on two of my kids already. Yeah. I mean, it’s been. What do I don’t know how far you want to go back to 2008, 2005, two thousand three, whatever. But you know, I got one who’s 23 now and she doesn’t remember anything but pain on Saturdays for me. And I tried to take my now 17 year old. We went to games for a couple of years. There was a lot of fun. You know, I mean, you can always enjoy a Saturday afternoon, right? So it’s still cool. But, you know, there’s very few memories that she was she was at the Florida game with me that we won. That was cool. Georgia, I think we might have had a memory or two with Georgia at some point. South Carolina, but that’s pretty much it. You know? So, yeah, sorry to depress anymore, but it’s a very real possibility that, yes, he may not know your joy.

Will:
Well, I would say that my people who are my age, if you if you’re in your late thirties and you grew up a Tennessee fan and a Braves fan, like we are the worst, because I know that I know both schools only won the big prize only once. But you the expectation of. Excellence. Every I mean, the first year I remember was 1988 when Tennessee started the season 0 and 6 and then won five in a row. Then they won two S.E.C. championships back to back after that. So that like that really didn’t matter. And then you just go from there. The Braves, you had to wait a little longer on until nineteen ninety one. But I mean it just it has taken me and you could see reading us for a long time, you can see it in my writing like I mean it just took me a long time to get out of the how. How quickly can we get back. A lot of the stuff I feel like I wrote when Dooley was here was still holding on to the sense of, OK, we’re just a second away from being back to what it should be. And the realization that that’s not how it works. But I will say to in terms of that, I have been Alex, my wife. Her family’s a big baseball family.

Will:
But she really wasn’t into football, hadn’t been around it, that sort of stuff. And that first year, that first Butch Jones year, we were married. The thing that sold her was a game we lost. It was that smoky gray Georgia game that first won the pig Howard. And overtime just being there and being around a sense of what almost was. And the energy and the environment in that stadium that that really sold her. And, you know, we we weren’t there yesterday, thankfully, but we’re gonna be there Saturday for BYU. So, you know, it doesn’t have to be championship winning stuff to convince people who are otherwise, you know, uninitiated to really fall in love with it, man. It can’t be losing a Georgia state and it can’t be eighty five thousand people announced in the stands. I mean, that’s that’s that’s not it. And so that’s the that’s the thing I worry about. You don’t have to win championships, but it needs that sense of this will always be here. And it’s something that not just me, but lots and lots of people look forward to and I’m to and invest in it. You know, I think that’s worst case scenario thinking still. But that’s that’s definitely what I was thinking when I was lying in bed last night.

Joel:
You mentioned with with Dooley, you know, thinking, oh, you know, when it was how quickly you were going to be able to turn around, right. And actually that was you know, I started the store in 2011. So I was I was pretty convinced, you know, that we were just right around the corner. And, you know, it was weird. I knew that I was going to have some very strong and conflicting emotions this season, regardless of how things turned out. But I will admit at one point, yes, yesterday I was here Saturday. I was glad that I hadn’t again purchased another 20000 inventory to try to sell.

Will:
Yeah, I keep looking. You know, I’m like a lot of people, my Facebook feed gets filled with, you know, ads of Tennessee merchandise, whatever. And I looked at those ads a couple times today and I was like, where’s the on sale category? It should be. Don’t be trying to sell this to me at full price today. Facebook algorithm like you,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
You’ve got to find some deals and send them by way. Today.

Joel:
Yeah. So how I generally spend my stuff is I kind of pretend that it’s circa 2001 and there’s no Internet. That’s the first thing I do is I don’t go on the Internet. After a game like that, I just I’ve found that it’s not helpful to me. But then, you know, I just you whatever your hobby is or your other other passions are, you know, I just I spend some time with that. I spend a lot of time on Saturdays just monitoring my little SPM machine to see how it’s doing against the spread on other games and stuff. You know, just because I’d like to do that. It’s like my gardening or my woodworking or whatever. You know, I like to automate stuff and play with stats and fiddle around with mysql and php and stuff. Kind of a geek that way. So but once my mind’s right to, I may watch a few other games, you know, although there is some risk to that, you know, because watching the Auburn Oregon game is like everything was twice as fast as the one I just watched, you know, against Tennessee. I don’t know if we just look slow in anyway, but then, you know, church on Sunday and then I console myself with naps and food on Sunday afternoon. Basically, the Vols are the reason I’m fat, so.

Will:
Yeah, lots lots of us are feeling that way. My wife gave me a cupcake out of her inventory

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Today and that feeling feeling bad for me. But

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
That’s something we’ve said for a long time. It’s not about getting off the Internet. Like you you you don’t have to follow those people on Twitter, you know, like you can work a mute and curate a reasonable list. It is just you don’t have to follow people who it’s in good business interests for them to make you mad

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
At and phantoms like you. That has been helpful for me. Just something that I learned slowly over the course of doing this, as long as we’ve all been suffering with it for 10 or 11 years of, you know, run after game is not the best time to try to convince people that things are gonna be OK. I’m not

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
Saying things are going to be OK.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
You know, sitting here talking to you. So I don’t know. But, you know, don’t. Make your Twitter feed as healthy as you desire it to be. Is is one piece of advice I can give.

Joel:
Yes. And mine is to turn it off. That that’s my healthy Twitter feed right there. So anyway, let’s talk about the game now that I’ve had my nap and my cookies. So you’re your post right after the game was OK. Did we just see the worst loss ever? And if I read it right. Because, you know, to be honest, I read it, you know, kind of quickly because I just want to get it over with.

Will:
Sure.

Joel:
But so I think you said that in your opinion, the Memphis from. When was that ninety six or something. What

Will:
Yes,

Joel:
Was

Will:
A

Joel:
Worse?

Will:
Six.

Joel:
So remind me what happened in that and no. Why was that worse than yesterday?

Will:
So let me say, I think everybody understands we’re making this conversation like worst is relative to all this. Everyone still agrees. 2001 LSU is actually the worst. Full stop. Like that’s that’s the worst. It’s because of what you lost and what was on the line. But when we’re talking about worst upset allowed those those three games, Georgia State on Saturday, Memphis in 1996 and Wyoming in 2008. Those are all games that Tennessee was favored between twenty four and a half and twenty seven points. So they’re all that’s the right category for those games. Some are talking about North Texas from the 70s. That’s before my time. And I covers dot com is where I get that. That’s those historical line data points from. So that only goes back to 1985, Wyoming and 2008. Like I say, the deed is already done. Former stepped down the first part of that week, Tennessee, the clock since it struggled all year that, you know, still a strange game and a strange loss. But the deed was done at that point. So I think that one to me, even though that by Vegas standards is the winner at minus 27 for Tennessee. I just I just have a hard time believing that one could be perceived as worse. The Memphis loss in 96, Tennessee had lost to the Gators at the start of that year. Tennessee was ranked second, got down thirty five in nothing to Florida, then weirdly scored the next twenty nine points and only lost thirty five, 29 nine.

Will:
But they hadn’t lost again. They beat Alabama and Knoxville for the first time in 12 years. Twenty to thirteen on Jay Graham’s long touchdown run in the fourth quarter. And at that point, Tennessee was ranked somewhere between like five and eight. And the Gators. That’s the year Florida won the national championship. So there wasn’t really an opportunity to get in there behind Florida and make it to Atlanta. But you were still talking about the opportunity to play and in what back then was the Bowl Alliance, the pre BCSE So Tennessee could have gone to, say, the Orange Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl or something like that. And it was Memphis man. It’s still the only time Tennessee’s ever lost a Memphis Memphis state back in the back in the day. And so if you have both my parents are from Memphis. If you if you have personal connections there that made it so much worse. Memphis ran a kickoff back for a touchdown that had instant replay existed, would have been called back. Guy got flipped upside down and landed on his elbow and kept running. You know, he was down, but they didn’t call him down. And they went on it did that just an off game. Payton had a couple of interceptions. I think he couldn’t run the ball on them. And just one of those you like yesterday, the whole time, you thought this isn’t really going to happen.

Will:
And and then it did. Unlike 2008, Wyoming, where you had seen lots of bad things happen already that year, bad things, it only happened in Tennessee in 1996 against the Gators and and really not against anybody the last two years. You know, at that point, Tennessee ran through nineteen ninety five at eleven and won and then ran through 96 with only losing to Florida again and so sudden to lose to Memphis just just bad. The worst part about yesterday is that it was at home, that Memphis game was at Memphis. You know this this one was in style and again, I was not there Saturday. So if you were in the stadium and you stayed the whole time, which is not. Not many folks, you know. Like I said, you’re I think whatever answer you want on this, you’re allowed to have, because all three of those are in the same category, the Memphis one, because of rivalry and because of who Tennessee was at that point in time to lose a game when you’re favored by 26, that when that went to me. So at worst but also, I’m experiencing that one as a 15 year old and I’m experiencing this one as someone theoretically a little more mature. So I would still take Memphis, if you really want to have the argument. But if you want Saturday and if you are a little younger than me. Saturday, is it for you, man? Saturday is is the bottom.

Joel:
See, I think the thing that was worse about yesterday was not so much that it was home, but that it was the season opener. Right. I mean, and you wrote about this post that you put up Sunday that, you know, you spend so much time and effort over the summer just anticipating what is going to happen. And you build up all these hopes and dreams and then all of a sudden it’s just all gone. You know, I go back to this. If people then follow for a while, I wrote this thing back in. It was September 2nd, 2008. We had just hired Dave Clawson and his magical flip, you know, a lineman offense. You know, this was a super shiny thing. It was like a Christmas present, you know, where we were looking at it all summer, picking it up and shaking it. It made magical noises. And then and then we opened it up on September 2nd. And it was just pants. It was just another pair of pants. The same thing that we’d always gotten before. And and to be honest, this was this was 2008, right? And it’s two thousand nineteen. And we’ve gotten pants and socks every year. You know, I mean, every once in a while we get a nice three pack of underwear, you know. So it’s the worst part is just, man. You just build it up. And we were looking forward to all this stuff. And, you know, Cheney and Annesley in year two and in the in the in the recruiting, the five stars on the offensive line. And we knew that, OK, those guys were freshmen. You know, this is a new scheme. We get to learn some new stuff. But still, man, there’s nothing like anticipating something magical and getting a rock. You know, it’s just it’s it’s terrible yet. I think a Forest Gump mom was wrong. Life is not like a box of chocolates because you never really just bite into a piece of crap, you know? So

Will:
It’s

Joel:
Wish that’s what

Will:
Not

Joel:
Happened.

Will:
On a.

Joel:
All right. So anyway, what what exactly do you think went wrong? Saturday.

Will:
I think and this is the biggest. This is a big problem. I think Tennessee’s bad on defense and I think that because they were bad on defense last year. If you if you look at advanced numbers from last year, the S&P plus those kinds of things, the defense grades at worst offense. We spent a lot of time talking about Tyson Helton and some. So that deserved. Just unwillingness to run or to pass on first down for a lot of the year being conservative, those kinds of things. But the truth is, Tennessee got behind so quickly in it’s just some of its strength of schedule. But there were so many games where Tennessee just got behind early and we didn’t have time to note that this defense is just bad regularly. You don’t necessarily want to jump to that conclusion when you’re playing Georgia and Alabama. And good grief. West Virginia, I mean, a dynamite offense that Tennessee went up against the very first game of the year and against the Gators, which was really kind of the only other big talking point. Tennessee turned it over a billion times and you couldn’t really make any judgment fairly about the defense then. Then they go to Auburn and they force a bunch of turnovers and they got a big fourth down sack in the drives and they win. And that, I think, kind of let us feel like, OK. Like, you know, this defense is not really an issue. But, man, if you look at the end of this, South Carolina in particular, Tennessee just couldn’t stop those guys in the second half. I mean, just could not get off the field. And then Missouri and Vanderbilt at the end really exacerbated it. The teams you don’t have to be spectacular to beat this defense.

Will:
You don’t have to take that. It is very concerning that you don’t have to take big risks to beat this defense, that you can just line up and get four yards and then have second and six and get four more yards and then have third and two and get a first down. Georgia State, the best thing they did for Tennessee’s defense in the second half was take chances. You know, when they were throw an on on first down, that was great for Tennessee because then you get him in second eight and you have a chance to to be ahead of schedule. But, man, they just lined up and got whatever they want. And so some of what’s making the rounds today is a different conversation about just a stunning lack of alignment and all that stuff. But I have a concern that if Georgia State can do that to you, that even if you’re lined up better, even if you have Daniel Bertucci back and he’s trying to help set the defense from the inside linebacker spots, I have a concern that Tennessee is just they just don’t have the guys on the defensive line. I just don’t have them, especially without Emmitt Gooden. And if that’s the case, he’s going to try to score a lot of points on offense to win this year. And I’m worried that they have a head coach that doesn’t want to do that. It’s not in his nature. And that is is I think that’s what happened yesterday. And I’m worried because it happened against Georgia State. It’s just not going to be favored by 28 again, against an FBI team. So, you know, that’s a concern that this might just be a problem that we talk about all year.

Joel:
So we talked a lot during the Butch Jones era, which I don’t know why that phrase just makes me so tired.

Will:
It’s five years.

Joel:
But yeah. Well, we talked about him being a tweaker. Remember it? Remember all the conversations about tweaking, you know?

Will:
His dad’s a police officer. He doesn’t do big change.

Joel:
He

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Doesn’t do a big change

Will:
Oh, yeah.

Joel:
In that actually resonated with me. That’s kind of the way I am because I think one of the, you know, a big problem sometimes is is over correcting, you know, because I thought Bush could change. He could fix stuff when something was wrong. He is sometimes fixed it, but too often he would also break something in the process. And that was just because there’s there’s just too much going on. Anyway, so anyway. The reason I’m bringing this up is that. Pruitt only has one year as a head coach under his belt, and he made some major changes just after his first year. And it was widely heralded as as a wise move. And I think that largely it was I mean, basically it came down to this. He was he he looked himself in the mirror. OK. That’s good. He figured out that, you know what? I can’t I’m not a defensive coordinator anymore. I’m a head coach. And if I’m trying to actually coach the defense, then I have to ignore the offense or I have to do everything poorly. Because when you’re coaching the defense, you know, it’s not just calling the plays, making sure the guys are lined up, talking to the guys, you know, while they’re on the field. It’s also when they come off the field, you have a debriefing and instructions for the next set, for the next drive. Right. And so that means that you can’t spend any time on the on the offense. And of course, he probably thought, well, I can’t do that. So we spent some time on the offense and then he’s just doing poorly at defense. And so trying to do all that. He he came to the conclusion that he needed to delegate.

Joel:
And one of the things he did was he delegated the entire offense to Jim Chaney, which I think is a brilliant move. Cheney is a proven commodity, is really good. And I think that was just a there was a great move. But the other thing he did that I was I was kind of wondering about even over the summer, although I never mentioned it, was that he also gave up the defense and gave it to Ansley. Now, word is that Ansley is awesome. And maybe he is, but we don’t know, you know, and what we do know is that Pruitt is awesome at defense. And I think that his delegation of the defense to somebody who is maybe a younger version of him was possibly an overcorrection and that he probably or maybe should not have turned loose of the defense. Now, this is just a theory. At this point, it’s just one game is just Georgia state. But that’s the thing I’m going to be keeping my eye on, is whether or not that move turns out to be a real mistake. Not not because Ansley’s terrible, but because Pruitt can do it, should have done it already relieved himself of the offensive responsibilities. And now we got two new coordinators and there’s always a learning curve. Even if you’d you know it, even if it’s easy, you still have to get used to new personalities, some stuff. And there was a whole lot of change on that coaching roster. So anyway, that that’s one of the things that I’m going to be looking for. You have any thoughts on that? Am I crazy?

Will:
No. Well, listen, I don’t think anything is crazy right now. Truly, I mean, it is we need more data. We need a whole lot of these conversations. It’s not fair to ask anyone to push pause on anything they’re feeling right now because Tennessee just lost to Jordan State. But. Some of this. We need more data. And in that sense, it’s good. Tennessee is playing a real life team Saturday. Aside from the team that just beat them on

Joel:
Yes.

Will:
Yesterday.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
But yeah. So, I mean, we’ll get some more of these answers. I think a couple of things about that. I think we spent a lot of time talking last week and I spent a lot of time talking this summer about why did Tennessee run to your place in the country than any team last year? I think Pruitt has a bent to protect defense and to value defense. And one reason you don’t go fast on purpose is because you’re trying to slow the game down to keep your defense safe, to give the other team fewer opportunities, less time of possession, fewer snaps, that sort of stuff. When things were sunshiny and happy in the first half, I was celebrating the fact that Tennessee had a 16 play drives. That’s kind of awesome. But what’s not awesome? It’s not awesome if you’re trying to have a 16 play drives because of folks tell you man stuff goes wrong all the time,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Fumbles happen, penalties happen, that sort of stuff. You can’t bank on a 16 play drive. So it’s cool if it happens every once in a while because it’s unique and fun. And, you know, you flexed on these guys for basically the same way. Georgia State, Tennessee, a little later in the game with their own 16 play drives. But that that initial thing was disconcerting to me. Now, maybe they go hyper conservative early because they threw a fumble slash interception on the second play of the game. Maybe I can buy that. And they think it’s Georgia State. We can just do our thing and be fine. And it worked for those 16 plays. But now looking back at it, there’s a part of me that thinks again, are we. Is Tennessee trying to just take the air out of the ball to protect the defense that Pruitt knows and would know better than anybody isn’t very good? And wasn’t very good last year. And that’s not going to work. I mean, it’s just not going to work and it’s going to work. It’s not going to work in ways that are less fun than trying to score as many points as you possibly can because your defense is bad. And some of that gets back to the offensive line question of, you know, you want to take shots down field.

Will:
You have to trust the quarterback and the offensive line enough to pull that off. And I don’t know that anybody’s feeling super hot about Jerry Garen Santo or that offensive line after that performance on Saturday. So, yeah, I mean, you’ve still got the dudes at receiver. I think that’s nobody played better. No position group was better than those guys. But I don’t know that you have the rest of the pieces of that puzzle that you feel great about to say, hey, let’s just drop him back in shotgun or do seven step drops every time and take our chances going down seal. But they’re just not a if we’re right about this and the defense is just bad. There’s not a great solution to that. If you’re going to struggle to stop teams getting four yards on first down every single time, the best solution that I know of is you better outscore them. And again, there are some reasons that I think Tennessee might be hesitant to try to go that route. The Annesley thing is, is one, it’s a lesson for me and everybody else to never, ever say, oh, a new coordinator. But that’ll be fine. It’s just

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
It’s a big adjustment. Every time.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Every time. And so whether you’re bringing in, you know, Bob Shoop, who was a great defensive coordinator before and was coordinator of the year at Mississippi State last year, or you bring in Larry Scott, who’s never really done it before. But he was the interim coach in Miami. So that’ll probably be fine. Like, that’s one lesson I feel like I’m still learning is. Oh, yeah. Like this guy hasn’t really done this before. And that’s a big deal. I mean, that’s that’s the idea we’re going to do later. Like, what are the things you’re most afraid of? There there’s a part of me that’s like angelic maybe sucks. Like maybe he’s just airboat this. And anyways, having the personnel issues and the substitution interactions and that sort of stuff. I know it’s week one, but that was terrible and alarming and speaks to a lack of institutional control issue. So like Sanjay, all is Ainsley is terrible. On the one hand, it’s good news because you’ve got a head coach who is one of the best people in the free world, that being a defensive coordinator before he was Tennessee’s coach. But on the other hand, it just makes for a bad that micromanaging stuff. Even if it’s on the defensive, even if it’s on the side of the ball, he knows best. That’s just not ideal and not a great, great look there for Ainsley and in game one of his tenure.

Joel:
This is off topic, but I wanted to mention it just real quick that that corner blitz on the the sack and fumble, that was just an awesome call, I thought, because, you know, maybe Guarantano should have seen it, but it was an empty backfield. He had no back there to help protect him. It came from his blind side on the clear other side of the field. There’s no way that he could have seen him unless he actually, you know, purposely looked over there. So I just thought that was just a really good call. Bye bye, Georgia State. It’s just the right time, too, because we we’d been without any we’d been empty backfield for several plays in a row. So I thought that’s what they were thinking. But anyway. Yeah. This this. This is us thing that you mentioned. This is a great idea. I. I think I remember seeing this. I kind of quit watching that show. I don’t maybe I haven’t seen it in like a year or anything. But I do remember them saying at least one time, let’s say aloud the worst thing we’re thinking. And

Will:
Yes.

Joel:
That’s that terribly frightening. But let’s do it. So what what is the the worst thing that that you’re thinking right now? Well.

Will:
Here, here’s the sequence of worst things that I’m thinking. 1 And Ainsley is in way over his head and we have to deal with those issues of micromanaging and that sort of stuff. And I’m not sure where the resolution to that is coming. And if he’s in way over his head, you’re gonna have somebody else you have to buy out or reassign or something like that. The lack of. Man, I hate reading. Maybe David. David, Evan in the athletic or somebody else about Trey Smith begging people to show some pride and that sort of stuff. I am afraid of the prickly personality parts of Jeremy Pruitt that we kind of knew about before or we hired him are true and or worse than we thought. And people are not. Players are so beaten down from what they have been through the last X number of years. We’ve already seen them lay down once. They didn’t show up to fight in the week 1 opener. Are they going to bounce back from this? What if they don’t? Fans just stop coming after, you know. Tennessee loses to Florida and Georgia in embarrassing fashion. And this thing gets real bad. Then recruits have to figure out why they’ve committed to come to Tennessee when Tennessee goes, say, three and 9, which is a realistic possibility at this point in time. And then we’re left figuring out, do we bail on this? Do. After two years, we went three and nine or is all of this just going to happen again because you tried to start it over again? Do you give him a chance to. To do all that. Yeah. That’s that’s and. And my son grows up and never cares about football. That’s the word. That’s that’s the worst thing I’m thinking.

Joel:
Okay, so this sounded like a good idea. But I don’t like it.

Will:
Yeah, it’s usually hard to.

Joel:
So, yeah, I mean, yours yours are kind of. They’re like this season or maybe the next couple of seasons. Mine is more like Armageddon ish. You know, it’s like my biggest fear is that is never going to actually be any better. It’s been a long time. And and the reason for that is the thing that I’m scared about is that the reason for that might be that having the right perspective and the right priorities and the right values, all these things that I really desire to see in the guys, in the team and the program that those things are and will always be at odds with sort of achieving all of your wildest dreams of success. You know, honestly, if I had to make that trade, I’d make it and I’d be mostly glad about it. But man, do I hope that it’s possible to do both. You know.

Will:
Well, on that point, maybe it’s a little different cause it’s a different sport. But on that

Joel:
It’s

Will:
Point,

Joel:
Basketball.

Will:
I would say

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Barnes. Yeah, that’s good. And we’ve seen it’s you know, we’ve seen that go to different ways. I think I mean, I’ve thought about a lot of the highs and lows the last 10 years today. I will say for folks who were like, that’s it. Screw it. I’m out, man. That’s a number one takeaway from from the last console, Martin here is don’t don’t bail before there’s like nothing left. You know, you can bail. I just wouldn’t bail on Week 1. You know, there were times 2017. Plenty of reasonable points to get off that ship before, you know, Brady Hoke was on the sideline like that. You know, it’s OK. And there’s some self-preservation in there, honestly, of bailing in the middle of October of that year, I’m sure. But don’t miss the opportunity to enjoy the kinds of Martin story from that last season that ended up a bad marriage call away from the Elite Eight is don’t miss the opportunity to enjoy something. So you need more data. We need and we’re going to get it soon. And then we’re really going to get it when they go to the gators. So, you know, I feel like nothing. And there is nothing off the table. Well, I think Tennessee blowing out BYU is probably off the table, but BYU blowing out Tennessee. I mean, I can see that. I can see it. Tennessee, who, by the way, still two and a half point favorite against the Cougars on Saturday. Tennessee winning up, actually had two. So we need more data. You may have good reason to bail on this thing, but I would say let’s let’s let’s see week two and see how it goes. But yeah, the again, man, especially if you’re in my demographic, that whole or this is never going to be what it was when I was a kid. Oh. I

Joel:
You

Will:
Do not like that,

Joel:
Know, as.

Will:
And that’s that’s why that’s why we follow sports is not just for the it’s bandwagon stuff to follow for the wins and losses. But I worry about this thing. It sells, you know, like a hundred thousand people showing up at the game. People being excited, people being invested in the outcome. It’s the apathy perspective of of Knoxville is a different town win. Tennessee is winning. And I like that about Knoxville. And so those are the those are the kind of vulnerabilities that I worry about. And we did all this in the offseason to say that Tennessee, of the 15 winningest programs in college football history, the only program that has been through a stretch like the last eleven years of Tennessee in terms of length of time, not any final top 20, the only program that’s been through a stretch like this before is us in the late 1970s and early

Joel:
This

Will:
1980s.

Joel:
Is us.

Will:
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Just like I planned it. So. So, you know, it’s in our nature to say, let’s step back and realize that we’re not Tennessee. The University of Tennessee football team is not always the 1990s. The 90s are what we are capable of. The 50s are what we are capable of. The late 60s and early 1970. That’s what we’re capable of. That’s what we aspire to. But, you know, you’re gonna have you’re gonna have some nine and three in there that you’re gonna have to say. Ninety three was OK. And that was awfully hard for people in the second half of former’s tenure. But you know that you’re going to have some of that. That’s OK. But that’s my worry now is that when are we getting back to nine and 3 10 again? Tennessee hasn’t finished a season with less than four losses since 2004. At this point, they would have an 0 7 if they didn’t lose any SCC championship game. So that’s you know, it’s still the last eleven years what we’re really talking about, but. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, all of that is all that’s concerning. You have to come back to this thing for more than the wins and the losses. But I’m worried about the very essence of it being being a little bit vulnerable here.

Joel:
Yeah. So how much does this game actually impact your expectations for the four for the season? I think this is a really interesting question because if you only go on the data we have. Then what you’re looking at is, OK. We just lost the game I felt most comfortable about. Right. And

Will:
Right.

Joel:
So therefore, I probably am going to think that we should lose every other game to just logically speaking. Right. But you don’t really feel that way because you kind of feel at the same time that something will get better. Maybe. Maybe. But so that I can say if you only go on Saturday, you can’t feel good about the rest of the season. But somewhere in the back of your mind, you’re also thinking that, well, we’re gonna we’re gonna be able to get a fix that. That that was a fluke. Can’t happen again or won’t happen as much is as we think. It doesn’t mean that we’re going to lose every single game. That’s what I’m saying. So how does that all impact and follow fallout for you?

Will:
Well, here I think the our friend the the win expectancy machine there it it’s that thing is your friend right now. If you’re worried about Tennessee going one in eleven, it’s not your friend if you did it before this week, because I did it yesterday and I went from I was seven, almost seven on the money before kickoff. So saying I think they’re going to go 7 and 5 and I think 8 and 4 is just as likely as 6 and 6 2. Now I’m in a shade over four and a half. We’re just saying. So, yeah, that’s that’s a drop in part. It’s because I put Georgia State at a hundred percent. Don’t ever put anyone at a hundred. Don’t put Chattanooga 100 percent in that thing. So you know part of me. Yes, it’s a drop from seven. It’s also a reminder that even as pessimistic as I am about things right now, I don’t think they’re actually going to go one and eleven. I think that they are still a football team with a pulse and some good athletes and some coaches that didn’t get stupid all of a sudden. And we’ll find a way that I think five and seven barely is the most likely outcome at this point. But I’m open to four and eight or three and nine and that sort of thing. You know, we’ve talked a lot on the blog and you mentioned earlier with the past those UCLA games in 0 8 and 0 9 really stand out to be the one in 0 8 4.

Will:
How how much more serious I was when Tennessee lost that game than I am now. And I don’t know if that’s perspective or apathy, but the one in 0 9 has some similarity to OFS dynamite coaching staff. You know, a Kiffin played one double a team back when they were one day in week one, and then he got UCLA in week two a game. A lot of us spent the whole offseason talking about Tennessee. He’s got to win. And not only did they lose it, they were out coached, just poorly played bad, looked bad, looked bad in a way that made you feel like, are we going to win any games? And what is this coaching staff that we paid all this money for and why didn’t they do anything good? And obviously, Kiffin and those guys, it took him till mid-October and a close loss to Auburn in there, too. But they got it together. They only lost to the Gators by 10 and everyone was convinced they’re going to lose by one hundred and maybe, you know, there was gonna be actual murder on the field with that. So, you know, we need more data. But but that particular point of, hey, man, I thought these coaches were really good. We’ve we’ve seen them bungle that right away. That happened to Kiffin and those guys against UCLA. So those those two in particular I have thought about a lot today.

Joel:
Well, with that, that’s going to do it for this edition of the Game Day Rockstar podcast. We’ll be back later this week with a preview of the BYU game. Make sure you keep along with the blog this week. Will will open up the expected win total machine again tomorrow. We’ll have all the regular weekly stuff. And if you’re having conversations about the game this week with folks who might appreciate a little different perspective, put in a little plug for us and tell them that game day, our archetype is a community of reasonable fanatics. We’re not sunshine and rainbows and unicorns this week, but we also haven’t seen our pitchforks in years. So. So until next time for Will Shelton. I’m Joel Hollingsworth and this has been the game day Rocky Top podcast.

Will:
I will. I will say that I had my pitchfork at Florida loss in 15. I had I had my pitchfork there it was when we were talking about malpractice last week. That’s when that came to mind that the end of that game was called malpractice.

Joel:
Which one was that? That was the.

Will:
That isn’t that great. Like we shouldn’t

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Get the name of this podcast, which lost was that that was that was the up twenty seven fourteen and didn’t go for to do and then gave

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Up

Joel:
Fourth,

Will:
Then thirteen

Joel:
And.

Will:
And whatever it was and then went down the field with the worst and most excruciating clog management of all time. And we’re left with a fifty five yard field goal that almost went in that would to be again like we’re just in the throws of historic losses. That one to me is still worse than the hob nail boot. I put that. That’s the third. I’ve put a 1 LSU right there at the top 90 Alabama, which you have to be a certain age for. But that one of being ranked in the top five and Bama being unranked and lining up to kick the game winning field goal and having them block it and it bounces thirty five yards the other way and then they kick the game winning field goal instead to be united six. That one is special. That went that was my first real taste of we’re gonna beat Alabama. Oh, no, we’re not gonna beat Alabama here.

Joel:
What year was that?

Will:
Nineteen ninety is.

Joel:
Yes. I don’t. I wasn’t.

Where’s the Line Between Perspective and Apathy?

Saturday was Tennessee’s 18th loss as a favorite of at least a touchdown since 1985, which is as far back as the data at Covers.com goes. That’s roughly one every other season, a pace that hasn’t slowed in the last 11 years despite the Vols having far fewer opportunities to be favored by at least a touchdown.

I’ve thought some about the start of these last 11 years today. The Vols lost openers as underdogs to #12 Cal in 2007 and #17 West Virginia last year. The only other Week 1 blip between Jerry Colquitt’s knee in 1994 and yesterday was in 2008: #18 Tennessee a touchdown favorite at UCLA.

How does the way you felt when the Vols lost that game compare to the way you feel today?

In 2008 the Vols were defending SEC East champs, the Tide just went 7-6 with a loss to Louisiana-Monroe, the Gators were coming off a 9-4 campaign, and the Dawgs – preseason #1 – had lost to Tennessee by 39 points over the last two years.

There’s no need to go back through Dave Clawson’s history; to his credit, Wake Forest just beat Utah State 38-35 in a game with nearly 1,200 yards of offense. On days like yesterday there’s still a part of me that imagines an alternate reality where the Vols hired someone else to run the offense in 2008 and none of the last 11 years happened. Still, the Clawfense rightfully drew anger that night in Pasadena, specifically for having Jonathan Crompton throw it 41 times when Arian Foster and Montario Hardesty combined for 162 yards on only 25 carries.

When Tennessee lost that game, I was furious. I think losing in Week 1 is one of the least fun things that happens in college football, because you spend so long waiting for this thing to get here and then it immediately betrays you. Even last year, with the Vols clear underdogs against West Virginia, it’s a special kind of no fun. And losing as a favorite is way worse.

Losing as a four-possession favorite should be way, way worse. But 11 years later, at least for me, it just doesn’t feel that way today.

I’m an optimist by nature and an idiot often. There were a few times in Butch Jones’ tenure where I found myself less affected by a loss, particularly to Florida in 2017. Some of that was the ridiculous nature of that game and its ending, but a lot of it was having had the conversation about Jones’ and the shortcomings of risk management often enough to build in some self-defense.

None of us were prepared for yesterday, no matter the trials and tribulations of these last 11 years. They didn’t build in self-defense on the front end of a new season as a four-possession favorite. I’ve hoped, more this off-season than ever before, that they’ve helped us with perspective. But they’ve also installed a little more “Oh well…” on the back end than might be good for business.

Good Seats Available

Yesterday’s announced attendance: 85,503. The Vols announced better crowds than that in every home game last season. Not just the home opener after the loss to West Virginia (96,464 vs ETSU). But more than 85,000 were announced against UTEP and Charlotte as well. Only the last game against Vanderbilt drew a smaller announced crowd in 2017 (83,117). Jim Chaney’s interim gig vs Kentucky in 2012 drew 81,841.

By contrast, the Vols vs UAB the week after losing to UCLA in 2008: 98,205. Just shy of 100,000 saw that Wyoming game. And Fulmer’s final game vs Kentucky at the end of that season: 102,388.

The first answer to what would make all of this better is, of course, “Beat BYU.” But apathy via attendance – an important factor because you can measure it in $$$ – was a problem before the Vols lost to Georgia State. This part, in particular, might get worse before it gets better.

The thing that made me feel the best today:

https://twitter.com/BudElliott3/status/1168195595724578816

Man, I hope there’s some truth to this. Butch Jones’ first class, with the benefit of no early signing period, added Josh Dobbs and Marquez North after the transition from Derek Dooley. Dobbs might’ve been Arizona State’s pride and joy if an early signing period was available. Butch’s 2014 Vols were perfectly positioned to capitalize on Year Two magic before blowing it against the Gators, but even then Dobbs showed up to change the narrative.

The most praiseworthy parts of yesterday were Jauan Jennings, Brent Cimaglia, and then two freshmen in Eric Gray and Henry To’o To’o. It’s one game, and obviously an infamous one, but those look like guys who can help Tennessee right now and really help them next season. The kind of trajectory we expect from a coach’s initial recruiting haul might now roll over into year three; Pruitt’s tenure here is as old as the early signing period, so we’ll find out together. But it was a happier thought if you’re out on the year two magic already.

For depressing reference, here are all of Tennessee’s losses as at least a touchdown favorite since 1985:

08 Wyoming27
96 Memphis26
19 Georgia St24.5
92 Arkansas22
86 Army17
16 South Carolina14.5
05 South Carolina14
88 Duke13.5
86 Mississippi St11.5
01 Georgia11.5
05 Vanderbilt11
09 UCLA10.5
00 LSU9
99 Arkansas7.5
01 LSU7
04 Notre Dame7
08 UCLA7
16 Vanderbilt7

Yeah, that 2016 South Carolina game looks worse in this context.

Georgia State 38 Tennessee 30 – The Slow Knife

In the “worst loss ever” conversation, the math will support your candidate of choice. Via Covers.com, the Vols were between 25-27 point favorites against Memphis in 1996, Wyoming in 2008, and Georgia State today. If you’d like to increase your suffering, we can argue which one was truly worse (and I’ll take Memphis), but as you’re known by the company you keep, there’s no spinning today.

The offense, strangely enough, punted once. That’s usually a good day at the office. It’s less so when it’s accompanied by three turnovers, two failed fourth down conversions, and two field goals from inside the opponent’s 15 yard line. Nonetheless, when the opponent is Georgia State, that should still be enough for victory.

The opponent trailed 17-14 at halftime, the beneficiary of a short field after the first of those turnovers on the second play of the game. The Vols averaged 5.5 yards per play to Georgia State’s 3.5 in the first 30 minutes. I don’t know about you, but there wasn’t much alarm at that point.

Then Georgia State went 75 yards in nine plays to open the third quarter. They needed just one third down conversion, and that was third-and-one. And that became the theme of the game from then on: Georgia State with the slow knife of four yards per carry, converting 10-of-17 third downs.

You convert 10-of-17 when 10 of those third downs require three yards or less for the conversion. And I think that’s Tennessee’s biggest problem. I might buy some situational fixes for some of the offensive issues. Defensively, the Vols were bad on third down because they were bad on first and second.

I also know this is true because we watched it for most of last season, it just got lost in the weirdness of the Florida game and the strength of our schedule. But against South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt? Tennessee’s defense failed to keep the other team’s offense off their schedule. The Vols didn’t have the bodies up front then graduated those bodies, lost the best of the few returning options to a knee injury, and only got another one eligible this week.

More than the offensive line, where you at least have some experience and your two highest-rated freshmen, I thought the defensive line would be the biggest issue all year. I thought some teams would be able to do the same thing most teams did to Tennessee last year: the easy 4-5 yards per carry leading to the weight of inevitability. If Georgia State is one of those teams, it’s now fair to ask if they all will be.

From a philosophical standpoint, if this trend continues, the Vols are going to have to get a lot more aggressive on offense to win this year. Will Jeremy Pruitt have the stomach for it? We spent most of the back half of Butch Jones’ tenure knowing his faults and hoping he could learn and grow. But some of the philosophical issues were never resolved. What will happen with Pruitt in that department? We’re on game one of season two, but this is obviously the most glaring and most damning data point.

When the events that led to Jeremy Pruitt transpired, we talked about how the program was vulnerable in a way it had not been in my lifetime. Fulmer’s presence and Pruitt’s competence – especially on the recruiting trail – brought, at least for me, at least for a while, a sense of calm in that storm. But for recruits who need reasons to pick a Tennessee program that is now 67-71 in the last 11 years and one game, capped off with a four-possession upset against a 2-10 Sun Belt team at home? Today was very not good. It’s still only the first game, and there’s still a lot to learn about this team and its coaching staff. But some of that learning needs to lean positive, or the program will find itself in an increasing state of vulnerability again.

Congratulations to Georgia State.

Your Gameday Gameplan: Tennessee-Georgia State

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Tennessee Volunteers hosting the Georgia State Panthers. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Vols fans. Where and when to find the Vols game on TV, what other games to watch today as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

But first, just a little juice:

https://twitter.com/Vol_Football/status/1167549239372726277

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best other games for Vols fans to watch today

Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:

Saturday, August 31, 2019
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
Mississippi State Louisiana 12:00 PM ESPNU Live Future Vols opponent
South Alabama Nebraska 12:00 PM ESPN Check in Former coaching candidate
AFTERNOON SLATE
Georgia State Tennessee 3:30 PM ESPNU Live Go Vols!
Duke Alabama 3:30 PM ABC DVR Future Vols opponent
South Carolina North Carolina 3:30 PM ESPN DVR Future Vols opponent
EVENING SLATE
Georgia Vanderbilt 7:30 PM SECN DVR Future Vols opponents
Missouri Wyoming 7:30 PM CBSSN DVR Future Vols opponent
Oregon Auburn 7:30 PM ABC Live Top 25 matchup

And here’s a searchable version of the entire college football TV schedule for the day:

Date Time TV
Thu Aug 29 Albany Central Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN3
Thu Aug 29 Morgan State Bowling Green 7:00 PM ESPN3
Thu Aug 29 Robert Morris Buffalo 7:00 PM ESPN+
Thu Aug 29 UCLA Cincinnati 7:00 PM ESPN
Thu Aug 29 Wagner UConn 7:00 PM ESPN3
Thu Aug 29 Central Arkansas Western Kentucky 7:30 PM ESPN+
Thu Aug 29 Florida A&M UCF 7:30 PM CBSSN
Thu Aug 29 Gardner-Webb Charlotte 7:30 PM ESPN+
Thu Aug 29 Alabama State UAB 8:00 PM ESPN+
Thu Aug 29 Florida International Tulane 8:00 PM ESPN3
Thu Aug 29 Georgia Tech Clemson 8:00 PM ACCN
Thu Aug 29 Texas State Texas A&M 8:30 PM SECN
Thu Aug 29 South Dakota State Minnesota 9:00 PM FS1
Thu Aug 29 Kent State Arizona State 10:00 PM PAC12
Thu Aug 29 Northern Colorado San Jose State 10:00 PM
Thu Aug 29 Utah BYU 10:15 PM ESPN
Fri Aug 30 Rice Army 6:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Aug 30 Tulsa Michigan State 7:00 PM FS1
Fri Aug 30 Wisconsin South Florida 7:00 PM ESPN
Fri Aug 30 UMass Rutgers 7:15 PM BTN
Fri Aug 30 Utah State Wake Forest 8:00 PM ACCN
Fri Aug 30 Purdue Nevada 9:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Aug 30 Colorado State Colorado 10:00 PM ESPN
Fri Aug 30 Oklahoma State Oregon State 10:30 PM FS1
Sat Aug 31 Akron Illinois 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Aug 31 East Carolina NC State 12:00 PM ACCN
Sat Aug 31 Florida Atlantic Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Aug 31 Howard Maryland 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Aug 31 Indiana Ball State 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Aug 31 Indiana State Kansas 12:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Mississippi State Louisiana 12:00 PM ESPNU
Sat Aug 31 Northern Iowa Iowa State 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Aug 31 Ole Miss Memphis 12:00 PM ABC
Sat Aug 31 South Alabama Nebraska 12:00 PM ESPN
Sat Aug 31 Toledo Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN
Sat Aug 31 James Madison West Virginia 2:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Rhode Island Ohio 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Bucknell Temple 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Eastern Washington Washington 3:00 PM PAC12
Sat Aug 31 Georgia State Tennessee 3:30 PM ESPNU
Sat Aug 31 Colgate Air Force 3:30 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Duke Alabama 3:30 PM ABC
Sat Aug 31 East Tennessee State Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Eastern Michigan Coastal Carolina 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Holy Cross Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Aug 31 Idaho Penn State 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Aug 31 South Carolina North Carolina 3:30 PM ESPN
Sat Aug 31 Montana State Texas Tech 4:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Northwestern Stanford 4:00 PM FOX
Sat Aug 31 Portland State Arkansas 4:00 PM SECN
Sat Aug 31 Virginia Tech Boston College 4:00 PM ACCN
Sat Aug 31 Campbell Troy 6:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Incarnate Word UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Sam Houston State New Mexico 6:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Syracuse Liberty 6:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 UC Davis California 6:30 PM PAC12
Sat Aug 31 VMI Marshall 6:30 PM
Sat Aug 31 Alcorn State Southern Mississippi 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Boise State Florida State 7:00 PM ESPN
Sat Aug 31 Illinois State Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Monmouth Western Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Nicholls Kansas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Norfolk State Old Dominion 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 SMU Arkansas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Stephen F. Austin Baylor 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Abilene Christian North Texas 7:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Georgia Vanderbilt 7:30 PM SECN
Sat Aug 31 Georgia Southern LSU 7:30 PM ESPNU
Sat Aug 31 Miami (OH) Iowa 7:30 PM FS1
Sat Aug 31 Middle Tennessee Michigan 7:30 PM BTN
Sat Aug 31 Missouri Wyoming 7:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Aug 31 Oregon Auburn 7:30 PM ABC
Sat Aug 31 Virginia Pittsburgh 7:30 PM ACCN
Sat Aug 31 Arkansas-Pine Bluff TCU 8:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Grambling UL Monroe 8:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Houston Baptist UTEP 8:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Louisiana Tech Texas 8:00 PM LHN
Sat Aug 31 Weber State San Diego State 9:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 New Mexico State Washington State 10:00 PM PAC12
Sat Aug 31 Southern Utah UNLV 10:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Fresno State USC 10:30 PM ESPN
Sun Sep 1 Houston Oklahoma 7:30 PM ABC
Mon Sep 2 Notre Dame Louisville 8:00 PM ESPN

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s our podcast from earlier this week:

And here’s Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180:

Pre-game prep

And to catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

GRT’s SPM on whether the Vols will cover against Georgia State

We’ve been doing “statsy previews” here and at Rocky Top Talk back as far as 2011. Early on, it was primarily for the purpose of using a different method of analysis to make the conversation interesting. By the time 2017 rolled around, though, it had proven reliable enough that I thought it worth the time to measure its actual effectiveness against the spread, and on Week 6 of that season, I started keeping track. From that point forward, it finished 283-217 (56.6%) against the spread in 2017. It was 65-33 (66.33%) when the machine’s confidence rose to a certain level that I am protecting like a national secret for now.

I tracked it again last season, and it, of course, didn’t do as well. It went 376-380 (49.74%) overall for the entire 2018 season. I wasn’t surprised because it was the first time I’d tracked early season results that out of necessity relied on somewhat stale data from the prior season. But 49.74% is known as “losing” if you were actually wagering.

On the other hand, at a certain confidence level, it went 169-140 (54.69%). So, I considered it still worth watching. By the way, I’m not using any of this data to actually wager, and neither should you. Trust it for fun and discussion purposes, but don’t give it your wallet.

When analyzing the results from last year, I realized that part of the problem, apart from the early-season data problem, was that it didn’t filter out FCS games. This is a comps system, and games against FCS opponents really shouldn’t be considered comparable. That’s a whole different neighborhood, man. So, this offseason, I tweaked the machine to filter out those non-FBS games.

We’ll see if and how much difference removing FCS comps makes. So far this season, the SPM is 6-7 (46.15%) overall and 5-2 (71.43%) when confidence is sufficiently high.

The early-season problem

Part of the problem with this comps model (and really, any predictive statistical model) is what to do with early-season games before there is any or enough data. When there isn’t enough data from the current season, you have to jump off last year’s cliff and make some adjustments and guesses on the way down.

Generally speaking, the way I’ve done it is to use last year’s data and then assign each team an appropriate adjustment. Each team is assigned a benchmark from the prior season, which is a combination of a weighted AP poll ranking and a weighted S&P+ ranking. Basically, this is a measure of how good were they last year. This is then compared to our current-year power ranking, which is a combination of the prior year’s benchmark and a team’s returning production and recruiting measures. This attempts to get at how much production a team has lost from the prior year and how much it’s likely to matter. From there, we assign each team a number that attempts to accurately measure how much that team is expected to change from last year to this year.

So, teams like Alabama and Clemson — those that did well on the field last year and have enough talent on the roster to offset losses in production — are essentially the same teams as last season. Some teams, though, have changed fairly significantly. Our results suggest that teams like North Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida State have the highest probability of the most positive change, and teams like Appalachian State, Fresno State, and Utah State have the highest probability of the most negative change. This is an experimental new component, so again, we’ll see.

For the first game of the season, we’ll simply use last year’s data and this year’s team adjustments. As we progress into the season, we’ll phase that out and start using more and more of this year’s actual data.

Tennessee vs. Georgia State

So, here’s what the SPM has to say about the Vols’ game against Georgia State tomorrow. The team adjustments: Tennessee is expected to be quite a bit better this fall. Georgia State is expected to be somewhat better as well.

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 22.8
Georgia State scoring defense for the season: 37.4

The Georgia State scoring defense is most similar to the following two prior Tennessee opponents (FBS only):

  • UTEP 32.8
  • South Carolina 27.2

Tennessee scored 24 points against both of those teams.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Georgia State (after 2019 team adjustment): 29.3

Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 27.9
Georgia State scoring offense for the season: 23.9

The Georgia State scoring offense is most similar to the following two prior Tennessee opponents:

  • Charlotte 21.7
  • Kentucky 26.6

Against Kentucky, Tennessee allowed 7 points. Against Charlotte, Tennessee allowed 3 points.

Estimated points for Georgia State against Tennessee (after 2019 team adjustment): 5.6

Estimated score: Tennessee 29.3, Georgia State 5.6

From the perspective of Georgia State

Georgia State scoring offense for the season: 23.9
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 27.9

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following two prior Georgia State opponents (FBS only):

  • Texas State 27.7
  • Arkansas State 25.6

Against Arkansas State, Georgia State scored 35 points. Against Texas State, Georgia State scored 31 points.

Estimated points for Georgia State against Tennessee (after 2019 team adjustment): 37 (yikes!)

Georgia State scoring defense for the season: 37.4
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 22.8

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following two prior Georgia State opponents:

  • Kennesaw State 20
  • Texas State 19.8

Against Texas State, Georgia State allowed 40 points. Against Kennesaw State, Georgia State allowed 20 points.

Estimated points for Tennessee against Georgia State: 36.6

Estimated score: Georgia State 37, Tennessee 36.6 (!)

SPM Final Estimates

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 32.9, Georgia State 21.3

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -11.6

SPM Confidence level: 13.9

Eyeball adjustments

No, I’m not believing that estimate from Georgia State’s perspective, either. That’s probably an indication of something else that should be tweaked under the hood, namely a negative adjustment to the comps of a team that mostly plays against a lower-tier slate.

So, I’m putting more weight on the analysis from the Vols’ perspective. There, the predicted score is basically Tennessee 29, Georgia State 6, a spread of 23. That sounds more like it, although I am inclined to give the Georgia State perspective just a bit of weight and to give them a few more points.

So, while the SPM is going with Tennessee 32.9, Georgia State 21.3, I’m going with Tennessee 35, Georgia State 13. I hope it’s better than that. That’s still not covering the spread.

The Vegas spread is between -25.5 (when I locked it in on Monday) and -27 with an over/under of 57.5. That basically means something like Tennessee 42, Georgia State 16.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 97.1% chance of winning.

We usually put the S&P+ prediction here as well, but I am unable to find it now that Bill Connelly has moved from SB Nation over to ESPN. If y’all can locate it, please let me know in the comments.

So with all of that, I’m thinking the Vols don’t cover this week. I hope I’m wrong.

What are y’all thinking?

Progress is the Expectation. How Much is the Fun Part.

How would you feel about a season like this:

  • Beat Georgia State by four possessions, UAB by three possessions, and Chattanooga by as much as you want
  • Beat BYU and Vanderbilt by a touchdown
  • Toss-ups with South Carolina and at Kentucky
  • Lose to Mississippi State by a touchdown
  • Lose at Missouri by 10
  • Lose at Florida/vs Georgia by two touchdowns
  • Blown out at Alabama

Split the toss-ups with South Carolina and Kentucky, and you’re 6-6. Win both of them, and you’re 7-5.

That’s essentially Tennessee’s SP+ projection. Bill Connelly’s preseason rankings, now at ESPN.com, have the Vols just outside the Top 25 at #26. But, as is always the case with us, that’s less important than how many teams on Tennessee’s schedule are ranked ahead of us: six this year, including five in the Top 13 (SP+ really likes both Mississippi State and Missouri).

This kind of season is one way progress could look for Tennessee. Not only would the Vols return to bowl eligibility after a two-year absence, but Tennessee would be competitive in every game but the one in Tuscaloosa.

If Tennessee loses only one game by 17+ points (three possessions)? 2019 would be only the third time that’s happened since 2007, joining Butch Jones’ teams in 2015 and 2016. The former is the only Tennessee team to not lose a game by multiple possessions since 1998.

A 6-6 finish wouldn’t necessarily thrill the masses, but if it comes with this level of competitiveness, the Vols will have clearly taken a step in the right direction, as SP+ projects.

But if that’s not exciting enough for you, how about a season like this:

  • Beat Georgia State by four possessions, UAB by three possessions, and Chattanooga by as much as you want
  • Beat BYU and Vanderbilt by 10-12 points
  • Beat South Carolina by 3-4 points
  • Toss-ups with Mississippi State, at Kentucky, and at Missouri
  • Lose at Florida/vs Georgia by a touchdown
  • Lose at Alabama by 17

Go 1-2 in those toss-ups, and you’re 7-5. Go 2-1, and you’re 8-4.

That’s essentially Tennessee’s FPI projection. And for many of us, that sounds more like it.

This kind of season would feel much more like progress, even if the Vols don’t upset the Gators or Dawgs. One last time before kickoff: an 8-5 finish would be the third-best season of the last 12 years; 9-4 would tie Jones in 2015 and 2016 as the best since 2007. You always start and finish with wins and losses; we’ll spill plenty of word count on what this team did or didn’t do in the space between 5-7 and 8-4. But along the way, progress will once again be measured on every snap. It remains readily available…and the real fun will be in seeing how many wins that progress will earn.

Here’s the side-by-side comparison; margins come from comparing each team’s rating, +2.5 points for home field advantage:

2019 Vols Projected Margin of VictorySP+FPI
Georgia State2928.6
BYU7.910.2
ChattanoogaN/AN/A
at Florida-15.4-6
Georgia-16-6.6
Mississippi State-6.91.9
at Alabama-26.9-17.2
South Carolina-1.93.4
UAB23.623.4
at Kentucky1.12
at Missouri-10.5-1.3
Vanderbilt7.811.8

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

We’ll know more after the Vols’ first game Saturday, but now that we’re through fall camp, it’s time to update our expectations from our pre-fall camp assessment. We still don’t have definite news on the availability of either Trey Smith or Aubrey Solomon, and the general vibe out of fall camp was good. Losing Emmitt Gooden was a blow and amplified the question marks around the defensive line, but for me, the only effect it’s had on my expectations is to keep them in check against the tide of optimism that rises every August as kickoff approaches.

The main additional data point comes courtesy of Saturday night’s game between the Florida Gators and the Miami Hurricanes. Both teams were sloppy overall and featured frightening defenses that posed real problems for the offenses. I was suspicious of the Gators’ offensive line before the game, and although I’m not ready to convict, I do believe that suspicion was well-placed.

With all of that, my current win total expectation for the Vols is 6.6, up every so slightly from . . . 6.55 just prior to fall camp. It’s a torrent of optimism!

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine

Explanations are below, but here’s a table with my updated expectations:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the Sun Belt East

BYU Cougars

Current record: 0-0 (0-0)

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 1-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East

You expect things to be a bit sloppy in the first game of the season, and they were. Fortunately for the Vols, they get some live fire reps against Georgia State to dial things in, and fortunately for Florida, Miami was just as sloppy as the Gators. The main takeaway from this game for me is that although Florida’s defense appears to be just as daunting as usual, the offense doesn’t look too intimidating. The first exhibit suggests that the offensive line is going to present a challenge that Feleipe Franks isn’t yet equipped to overcome.

That said, it obviously didn’t change my perception all that much, as I only bumped the forecast for the game from a 30% chance to a 35% chance. The main reason for that is that I’d already accounted for the offensive line.

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC West

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East

UAB Blazers

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 0-0 (0-0), 1st in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations heading into Week 1?

2019 college football TV schedule for Vols fans: Week 1

Last week’s appetizer gives way to the main course this week as college football kicks off in earnest. Here’s when and where to find the games that matter to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them. First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

College football TV schedule for Vols fans, 2019 Week 1

Thursday, August 29, 2019
Away Home Time TV How Why
Georgia Tech Clemson 8:00 PM ACCN Channel Hop Brand new Yellow Jackets
Texas State Texas A&M 8:30 PM SECN Channel Hop SEC West contender
Utah BYU 10:15 PM ESPN Live/DVR Future Vols opponent
Friday, August 30, 2019
Away Home Time TV How Why
Wisconsin South Florida 7:00 PM ESPN Live It's football
Saturday, August 31, 2019
Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON SLATE
Mississippi State Louisiana 12:00 PM ESPNU Live Future Vols opponent
South Alabama Nebraska 12:00 PM ESPN Check in Former coaching candidate
AFTERNOON SLATE
Georgia State Tennessee 3:30 PM ESPNU Live Go Vols!
Duke Alabama 3:30 PM ABC DVR Future Vols opponent
South Carolina North Carolina 3:30 PM ESPN DVR Future Vols opponent
EVENING SLATE
Georgia Vanderbilt 7:30 PM SECN DVR Future Vols opponents
Missouri Wyoming 7:30 PM CBSSN DVR Future Vols opponent
Oregon Auburn 7:30 PM ABC Live Top 25 matchup
Sunday, September 1, 2019
Away Why
Houston Oklahoma 7:30 PM ABC Live It's football
Monday, September 2, 2019
Away Why
Notre Dame Louisville 8:00 PM ESPN Live It's football

Thursday features a few different opportunities. We’ll get some data on upcoming Vols’ opponent BYU, as the Cougars take on No. 14 Utah at 10:15 on ESPN. Prior to that, Georgia Tech rolls out an attempt to pound the square peg of a roster of players recruited to run the option into a round hole of a fancy new passing attack under a new coach, and SEC West contender Texas A&M is in action against Texas State.

There’s football on Friday night, too, if you care about either Wisconsin or South Florida.

At noon on Gameday, Vols fans should watch future opponent Mississippi State on ESPNU against Louisiana for whatever it’s worth, but you can also check in on former coaching candidate Scott Frost and his Nebraska Cornhuskers on ESPN against South Alabama.

The Vols host Georgia State at 3:30 on Gameday on ESPNU. Go Vols. Future opponents Alabama and South Carolina are in action at the same time on ABC and ESPN, respectively, so DVR those and watch them later this week. 

The big game of the week is Oregon vs. Auburn at 7:30 on ABC, so watch that live. Future opponents Georgia and Missouri are on in the same time slot on the SEC Network and CBS, respectively, so DVR those for future reference and perhaps check in on them from time-to-time if Oregon-Auburn gets boring.

Because it’s Labor Day and opening weekend, there are interesting games to watch Sunday and Monday night as well.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Time TV
Thu Aug 29 Albany Central Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN3
Thu Aug 29 Morgan State Bowling Green 7:00 PM ESPN3
Thu Aug 29 Robert Morris Buffalo 7:00 PM ESPN+
Thu Aug 29 UCLA Cincinnati 7:00 PM ESPN
Thu Aug 29 Wagner UConn 7:00 PM ESPN3
Thu Aug 29 Central Arkansas Western Kentucky 7:30 PM ESPN+
Thu Aug 29 Florida A&M UCF 7:30 PM CBSSN
Thu Aug 29 Gardner-Webb Charlotte 7:30 PM ESPN+
Thu Aug 29 Alabama State UAB 8:00 PM ESPN+
Thu Aug 29 Florida International Tulane 8:00 PM ESPN3
Thu Aug 29 Georgia Tech Clemson 8:00 PM ACCN
Thu Aug 29 Texas State Texas A&M 8:30 PM SECN
Thu Aug 29 South Dakota State Minnesota 9:00 PM FS1
Thu Aug 29 Kent State Arizona State 10:00 PM PAC12
Thu Aug 29 Northern Colorado San Jose State 10:00 PM
Thu Aug 29 Utah BYU 10:15 PM ESPN
Fri Aug 30 Rice Army 6:00 PM CBSSN
Fri Aug 30 Tulsa Michigan State 7:00 PM FS1
Fri Aug 30 Wisconsin South Florida 7:00 PM ESPN
Fri Aug 30 UMass Rutgers 7:15 PM BTN
Fri Aug 30 Utah State Wake Forest 8:00 PM ACCN
Fri Aug 30 Purdue Nevada 9:30 PM CBSSN
Fri Aug 30 Colorado State Colorado 10:00 PM ESPN
Fri Aug 30 Oklahoma State Oregon State 10:30 PM FS1
Sat Aug 31 Akron Illinois 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Aug 31 East Carolina NC State 12:00 PM ACCN
Sat Aug 31 Florida Atlantic Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
Sat Aug 31 Howard Maryland 12:00 PM BTN
Sat Aug 31 Indiana Ball State 12:00 PM CBSSN
Sat Aug 31 Indiana State Kansas 12:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Mississippi State Louisiana 12:00 PM ESPNU
Sat Aug 31 Northern Iowa Iowa State 12:00 PM FS1
Sat Aug 31 Ole Miss Memphis 12:00 PM ABC
Sat Aug 31 South Alabama Nebraska 12:00 PM ESPN
Sat Aug 31 Toledo Kentucky 12:00 PM SECN
Sat Aug 31 James Madison West Virginia 2:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Rhode Island Ohio 2:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Bucknell Temple 3:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Eastern Washington Washington 3:00 PM PAC12
Sat Aug 31 Georgia State Tennessee 3:30 PM ESPNU
Sat Aug 31 Colgate Air Force 3:30 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Duke Alabama 3:30 PM ABC
Sat Aug 31 East Tennessee State Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Eastern Michigan Coastal Carolina 3:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Holy Cross Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Aug 31 Idaho Penn State 3:30 PM BTN
Sat Aug 31 South Carolina North Carolina 3:30 PM ESPN
Sat Aug 31 Montana State Texas Tech 4:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Northwestern Stanford 4:00 PM FOX
Sat Aug 31 Portland State Arkansas 4:00 PM SECN
Sat Aug 31 Virginia Tech Boston College 4:00 PM ACCN
Sat Aug 31 Campbell Troy 6:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Incarnate Word UTSA 6:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Sam Houston State New Mexico 6:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Syracuse Liberty 6:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 UC Davis California 6:30 PM PAC12
Sat Aug 31 VMI Marshall 6:30 PM
Sat Aug 31 Alcorn State Southern Mississippi 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Boise State Florida State 7:00 PM ESPN
Sat Aug 31 Illinois State Northern Illinois 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Monmouth Western Michigan 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Nicholls Kansas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Norfolk State Old Dominion 7:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 SMU Arkansas State 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Stephen F. Austin Baylor 7:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Abilene Christian North Texas 7:30 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Georgia Vanderbilt 7:30 PM SECN
Sat Aug 31 Georgia Southern LSU 7:30 PM ESPNU
Sat Aug 31 Miami (OH) Iowa 7:30 PM FS1
Sat Aug 31 Middle Tennessee Michigan 7:30 PM BTN
Sat Aug 31 Missouri Wyoming 7:30 PM CBSSN
Sat Aug 31 Oregon Auburn 7:30 PM ABC
Sat Aug 31 Virginia Pittsburgh 7:30 PM ACCN
Sat Aug 31 Arkansas-Pine Bluff TCU 8:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Grambling UL Monroe 8:00 PM ESPN3
Sat Aug 31 Houston Baptist UTEP 8:00 PM ESPN+
Sat Aug 31 Louisiana Tech Texas 8:00 PM LHN
Sat Aug 31 Weber State San Diego State 9:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 New Mexico State Washington State 10:00 PM PAC12
Sat Aug 31 Southern Utah UNLV 10:00 PM
Sat Aug 31 Fresno State USC 10:30 PM ESPN
Sun Sep 1 Houston Oklahoma 7:30 PM ABC
Mon Sep 2 Notre Dame Louisville 8:00 PM ESPN

Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 153 – 2019 preseason

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Listen here

Robo-Transcript below.

Pardon the errors, as the bot understands neither southern accents nor football.

Joel:
Welcome to the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. Welcome back to the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. I’m Joel Hollingsworth. And as always, I am joined tonight by the ever awesome Will Shelton. Will, how you doing this evening?

Will:
I’m doing fantastic, man. Good to be back. Good to be with you. How are you?

Joel:
I am doing well. It’s been I think all these little minor health annoyances have been ravaging their way through our house this week. And so I am slightly medicated. So I apologize in advance or or maybe I should charge extra. I don’t know. But yes, let’s. But. But it’s all good. We’re we’re working it all out. I was up at 445 this morning taking our youngest daughter to a procedure. She had to get bought Botox for her, for her hand. That is has a little bit of C.P. in it. And so that was fun being up so early from that day. They had to put her under and everything, I guess, because, you know, it’s like 30 shots in an arm for an eight year

Will:
Oh,

Joel:
Old.

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
That’s a lot.

Will:
Well, for thirty, almost thirty eight year old, I would go under for that too. So

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I understand.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
I was up at six, but only because my one year old felt like getting up at six. There was no legitimate reason for it. So, yes.

Joel:
They tend to do that. They kind of rule the house in the sleep schedules department.

Will:
Yeah. I’m figuring that out. So this is it. This is 9 0 8 in the p.m. when we’re recording this and I’m standing in the kitchen drinking coffee. So that’s kind of how it’s going.

Joel:
So you won’t sleep at all and then he’ll wake you up again at 6:00 tomorrow.

Will:
Now, I’ve just I’m immune. I feel like I’m just doing like any good addiction, it’s just for the routine of it. Like I feel like it has no effect on my life at this point.

Joel:
All right, so so the podcast is back. School is in session, kick off just a few days away. You remember back in the day and I’m sure this just wasn’t like an Illinois thing. I’m I’m hoping it wasn’t. But you the first thing had to do when you got back to school in the fall, you had to write a paper or give a speech or something on what you did over the summer vacation. What do I do with my summer vacation? Right. So.

Will:
Yes, that in the Alocoa city school systems as well in Tennessee. Yes.

Joel:
All right. Good, so you got some reps in. So before we get into football, what was the coolest thing about your summer? That was not related to football.

Will:
So my my wife is a cake decorator, slash dessert chef. More a she was a dessert chef, more in Tennessee

Joel:
Wow.

Will:
And more of a cake writer in Virginia. And like her,

Joel:
You married

Will:
Her

Joel:
Well.

Will:
Business is. Yeah. Listen, she. She acquired that skill after we got married, actually.

Joel:
Whoo!

Will:
So I

Joel:
Bonus.

Will:
Finished it. You had some had some some free time after finishing a degree and before we had our son. And so she took a class on a random Saturday about five years ago. She made a smoky gray Tennessee cake, which was exciting in 2014 and less exciting in 2019. But anyway, she

Joel:
Just like the

Will:
Turns

Joel:
Uniforms themselves.

Will:
Or they they will sell you a game. Used helmets, smokey grey helmet for a thousand dollars, literally a thousand dollars right now.

Joel:
Well.

Will:
So I don’t I don’t know how many of those who have left the showroom there. But anyway, she. Business is booming for her. So we are spending a lot of time out. I spend a lot of time the summer at farmer’s markets here in southwest Virginia and selling cupcakes and taking money telling people have a nice day and all that stuff. So that was that’s been fun, too. There’s a new a new wrinkle in our lives.

Joel:
And gaining weight because you have a dessert connoisseur in the house or dessert,

Will:
Well.

Joel:
Master chef.

Will:
Well, I’ve. I have managed all all the working out and running I do is just to break even. Because of that factor.

Joel:
That’s the way to

Will:
So,

Joel:
Do it, though.

Will:
Yeah, I joke I joke with people all the time. And so I can drink coffee with three servings of creamer at 9:00, 10:00 at night. But I joke with people that like when she’s in the kitchen and I hear her go, dang it or something more exciting.

Joel:
You

Will:
That’s

Joel:
Celebrate

Will:
The best

Joel:
Like

Will:
Move

Joel:
Pavlov’s

Will:
For

Joel:
Dog. That’s like, yes. Like that one can’t be sold. But I will eat it. I will take that to the team. So she does so well like that. She’ll try out new flavors and stuff. And I’ll meet her over at the farmers market to be like, oh, man, I really wanna try one. And then she’ll sell out. I’m legitimately bummed.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
So

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
If you’re in the south West Virginia area, come check us out on Tuesday night’s.

Joel:
That’s right, because you can not eat a dollar.

Will:
That’s right.

Joel:
So that would totally bummed out, too. So what was that address again? The the farmer’s market in where?

Will:
So we’re yeah, we’re in. We’re in Pulaski, Virginia, home of the Pulaski Yankees 2019 Appalachian League East Division Champions. Been doing a lot of baseball too this summer. But, yes. Anyway, we’re. I have no idea. Anyone actually listens to this in southwest Virginia. But if you do come by and say hi on first and third Tuesdays at the farmer’s market, at the train station. That’s that’s what I’ve been doing all summer. What have you been doing all summer?

Joel:
Okay, so the two coolest things I did well, my my wife and I had our 25th anniversary, which was cool. And so well, that was back in May. And it took me until August to actually get get something scheduled. We went to a Daufuskie island. You’ve ever heard of Daufuskie?

Will:
I have not. That sounds made up.

Joel:
It does. I made up in it. You know, it it’s almost like it should be because it’s this island that is just south of Hilton Head. And you cannot get there by car. You have to take a ferry and you drive around on golf carts. And there’s like almost nobody there, especially this time of year. There’s 400 people that live there. And then, you know, anywhere they get to restaurants. Third, they’re convenience stores like half of a Weigel’s, you know. And most of its T-shirts and

Will:
Half

Joel:
Hats.

Will:
My goals.

Joel:
Yeah. So anyway, we went there. That was really cool. Also, the guys that I used to play in the band with way back in junior high and high school and a couple of years out of high school, we hadn’t played together in like 30 years and we all got together in Nashville for a little jam session and we learned some of the old songs. We had a draft for the songs we were going to learn re-learn. And then we got together and sounded bad for a couple of days and it was a lot of fun.

Will:
A couple of days.

Joel:
So,

Will:
That’s serious business right there.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
That’s not just we’re gonna play a few. And thank you, everybody. Good night. Let’s say a is does this. Does this exist online somewhere?

Joel:
There was a Facebook post where somebody recorded a little bit of us practicing. So we didn’t actually play in front anybody. I mean, we knew better in that way. We’d been asked to play like at homecoming for the thirty thirty first anniversary or reunion, you know. But I was like, you know what? Let’s get together and see how we sound before we play in front of people. There was a good thing. Two of the guys have actually been playing for a while in other bands stuff, but two of us were really rusty and it did start coming back. But there were some songs that we thought we could play that day that we turned out to be wrong about it.

Will:
Right.

Joel:
All right. So let’s let’s tie this summer thing into football. What was the what was the best thing you heard about the football team this summer and fall camp?

Will:
You know, I think that this is the quietest somebody of for one on the air. We’ve been doing this under this since 2006. Joel, year 2005. I

Joel:
Yep,

Will:
Think. Right.

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
I came I started at Rocky Top Talk right after Lane Kiffin got hired, which is say it’s like it’s a great career starting point there on the on the big time blogs is right when it went bad for your whole football team. But

Joel:
Yet we’re to blame for everything.

Will:
Yeah, it’s fine. I can take it. But I I think this is by far like the quietest offseason that we’ve had. Some of that is basketball. The basketball conversation lasted so much longer because success of Team Plus Rick Barnes flirtation with UCLA, plus incredible recruiting like it’s just it’s just more fun to talk about basketball and football right now. So I think it’s that’s OK that it’s quiet about football at the moment, I think. Former’s presence, at least to me and probably of people of my late thirties generation. There’s just so much more trust there with the big picture, with him in charge that there’s there’s less of an need to be anxious going into Pruitt’s year, 2. Then I feel like there was with Dooley good I at this point with Butch Jones, we were so sold on the recruiting that it really didn’t seem fathomable that you could recruit the way he was recruiting and actually get all those guys to actually sign here in February and then have it turn out the way that it did in terms of just not developing that talent. And so I think that’s the biggest takeaway with the football team this offseason, is that there really wasn’t a big takeaway. That’ll all change here in three days, of course. But I just think it’s been quiet. And that’s not that’s just not altogether bad at this point. That’s one of my biggest offseason things, too, is the bar. The bar is both low and also more realistic than it’s been at any point that I’ve been doing this in 14 or 15 years. So like seven and five or eight and four is gonna go a long way with people. That’s what they end up doing. So I think it’s it’s that’s just kind of it’s kind of a cheating answer. But my biggest takeaway is that I really don’t have one. And I think that’s I think it’s all right. I think it’s a good, healthy ish reflection, both of where basketball has been for for a lot of a summer months, but just also kind of where the football team is now.

Joel:
You know, the other thing we’ve learned over 14 or 15 years of doing this is that even though you go into the season thinking that 7 and 5 is OK when you actually have to experience it, it’s really not OK and everybody gets mad anyway.

Will:
Well, there’s there’s a particular like if you if you’re trying to figure out how they get to 7 and 5, the easiest path is they’d be Kentucky, they beat Vanderbilt, they beat BYU. And you get South Carolina in Knoxville. That means you’re gonna lose four in a row in the middle. I mean, you’re going to lose Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama. And yeah, I agree, no matter what we told ourselves about 7 and 5 being OK, if you lose four in a row that a with a bye week to some five weeks without a win. That’s

Joel:
Mm hmm.

Will:
Not going to be pleasant for anybody in the middle of that stretch.

Joel:
Yeah. So for me, one of the things that I’m most excited about and most excited to see the results of is this idea. And I think it’s documented and verifiable that the team is a lot bigger and heavier and presumably stronger because of all that. I think it’s I think it’s really important. And I think I’m hoping that it really can matter a lot. You know, it’s kind of cool to hear Pruitt say sometime during fall camp that, you know, part of the problem with the O line last year wasn’t it wasn’t as much talent as it was asking them to play before they were before their bodies were ready, you know? And presumably now they’re more ready. Not just the new guys. We didn’t just recruit new, bigger guys, but the guys who were there got bigger themselves, you know? Tatum, I think he’s doubled in size in two years. Right. So if he’s holding off Darnell Wright over there. Right. Right tackle. You know, he’s he’s doing something right. And maybe it’s, you know, largely due to the fact that he’s bigger, heavier and able to do what he’s being asked to do. So I’m looking forward to seeing whether that makes a big difference. Hope it does.

Will:
Yeah, and there’s an interesting. The guys you recruit at the top of your list are always the guys you expect to come in and perform right away. It doesn’t always work that way. I think Malik Grey was was Tennessee’s highest rated signee and one of those late Butch Jones years and he just left the program and never did anything here. So it doesn’t always work. But to these two highest rated signings were where Wright and Morris, your offensive tackles. So it’s natural to expect those guys are going to come in and be great right away. But man, offensive tackle is like the last place where you can really expect a freshman to come in and really be strong. Sometimes you just you do what you gotta do. I also think Trey Smith is not doing anybody any favors here because you’ve got this memory of where he came in and was great as a freshman. But man, it’s not fair to expect these guys to be Trey Smith in 2017. So that’s just a weird spot. The good news about that is there’s other freshmen, Eric Grey, Henry Toto. I’m glad I got to be the first one on the podcast. You shut

Joel:
Well,

Will:
Up.

Joel:
done.

Will:
Thank you. Hi there. So there’s other guys you can be excited about if you don’t get to see those guys. But I think this is the big storyline in the last 10 days or two weeks is are they really going to rotate? Eight to 10 guys on the offensive line. Is that really what’s best for business? I think that’s you know, just because just because Marcus Tatum is the starting right tackle against Georgia State or even BYU and beyond, doesn’t mean that your two highest rated recruits were a bust. It just means, man, it’s awfully hard to play true freshman at those positions when you’re getting ready to stare down that barrel of Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina. That’s just that’s a big ask. So they’re gonna get opportunities. But I don’t I’m not convinced. It’s like the worst thing in the world if they don’t just come in here and start right away and play all these snaps. Tennessee has better options. That’s a good thing, because, man, you’re a freshman is your best option at tackled, and that’s problematic.

Joel:
Yeah, and if there’s nothing behind them, but it sounds like we’re not just too deep, but maybe even a little bit more than that along the line, which is which is nice, especially with some of the attrition that we’ve had there too. So.

Will:
I mean, that goes back to there, you’re not just saying about Bush, you’re talking about Dooley recruiting a class of those guys without any any linemen. And so, yeah, that’s that’s a long term problem that Tennessee is just now. Really next year, I think, is when we’ll be able to say, OK, now we don’t have to worry about this as much as we have for the last six or seven years yeah.

Joel:
So I’m kind of allergic to hyperbole, but the more I hear, the more I’m reminded of Dooley’s no offensive line class. That’s just malpractice. That’s just terrible.

Will:
You hate that word, too, I have used that word before or use it in a post and you’ve been like, I don’t like that word. Like as a lawyer,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
You know, like you

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Have the right to say that. And so that’s that’s Joel’s use of malpractice should be taken very seriously.

Joel:
That is is very strong for me. Yes.

Will:
Yeah. And you know, some of that is you look back on that now and I just wonder how much those guys had riding on. You know, if they’d done well in 2012, if they hired a different defensive coordinator or promoted Lance Thompson or whatever, and they won, you know, eight or nine in 2012, which probably would’ve felt like a big deal. You could have dodged Butch Jones, but I’m still not sure it would’ve been what was best for Tennessee in the moment going forward to have another year of Derek Dooley. So you just what we do this in the more Tennessee loses along the way. You know, you just kind of I. I spent a long time saying we don’t have enough information about Derek Dooley. And it’s affected the way I look at folks going forward in terms of trying to be a little more objective and things like that. But yeah. That’s that set Tennessee up for failure in ways where, you know, Butch, his first year, they still had all those Tyler Bray offensive linemen. But after that, man, I mean, and this is to tie this into this year. This is a really big question for me about this year’s team. And Jim Chaney too, Justin Worley got destroyed in a half a season twice because they were playing him behind an offensive line that wasn’t ready, that was having to go against get, you know, Coleman Thomas against Oklahoma in 2014.

Will:
Like there were lots of just bad situations out there. And they put him, especially 2014 with those younger guys. They were trying to win games. And so they were taking a lot of shots downfield and putting Worley in a lot of positions where he was going to get hit a lot. And I’m curious to see with this particular offensive line, how much are they going to do that with Guarantano, who got knocked out of a bunch of games behind a bad offensive line last year? Some of this I still wonder, is this why Tennessee ran fewer plays in the country than any team last year? Because they’re just trying to do risk management or survive or whatever the case may be. But I’ll be curious to see how many times if they really feel like they’ve got the receivers and they’ve got the potential to take some shots downfield. Is there a part of them that says, man, that’s another shot Guarantano is going to take? And how how willing will they be to put him in harm’s way, especially against the teeth of that schedule there in October?

Joel:
So I was going to I already praised you for saying To’oto’o. Name the next test was going to be saying the quarterback’s name, but you’ve already failed twice.

Will:
Yeah. Guarantano. Yeah. It’s bad. It’s my bad.

Joel:
Of course, we’ve had lots of failure there over the years. So,

Will:
We all have. Yeah.

Joel:
Yeah, yeah. I wonder why he didn’t correct anybody. He’s just, you know, you know that the lack of leadership that he’s finally going into his fifth year or fourth.

Will:
That would be great if I hadn’t written that idiot optimist piece yet. And he’s finally worked up the nerve to tell us his name, his real name. It’s got to be worth two wins. Just makes it. He made the joke today about being called Guantanamo. That was

Joel:
Yes.

Will:
A was an Idiot Optimist joke from two years ago. The beaches of Dormandy and

Joel:
Yes,

Will:
Guantanamo.

Joel:
I

Will:
Garrett

Joel:
Remember

Will:
Taught

Joel:
That.

Will:
Him obey or whatever. So.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Yeah. Yeah. Again, we’re all where? I’ll plead. I mean, I won’t plead the fifth. I’ll just I’ll just say, hey, man, we’re all guilty of that one. I’m very sorry that we did not have the correct knowledge on the correct pronunciation of your name.

Joel:
Don’t ask us all dogs to do those new tricks right now. Yeah. All right. So big picture, meaning like just from a wins and losses standpoint right now. We’ll get in the details in a minute. But what do you. What do you hope to see this fall? What what are the most important games?

Will:
Well BYU. I mean, that just feels like a game that you have to win. And we’ve seen us a couple times and seen it go a couple of different ways that Kiffin first year UCLA. It was a game. Well, we’re Tennessee’s got to win that game. And they didn’t. And they and they lost and in particularly frustrating fashion. But still, they got things turned around in October. They got a big meaningful win. And by the end of that year, nobody was still really chirping on that UCLA loss. So I’m not saying if they lose to BYU, then everything’s out the window. But that’s that’s just a big win to get. We’ll see two. I mean, we’re gonna see those guys late tomorrow night. I’m going to see those guys early Friday morning. Like, you know, just how I know we’re gonna talk about the gators here in a minute, but like that’s gonna make a big difference. We haven’t really had a year like this. Tennessee hasn’t played a cupcake in Week 1 since Butch Jones first year because we ran into that stretch of Utah state with Chucky Keaton and then Bowling Green and then Appalachian State and Georgia Tech and West Virginia. So it’s been a minute since we really don’t have to be overly concerned with Tennessee in week one. And you’re getting to shop before we take a snap. You’ve got a you’ve got a colorful opinion about the gators now. And you’re gonna get a good one with BYU here on on tomorrow night against Utah. So that could change if BYU wins that game. I think that may change folks opinion about the winnable nature or the percentage in our expected win total machine that you put on BYU.

Will:
But I think getting that one allows you to survive whatever happens against Florida and whatever happens against Georgia. And I say whatever happens, I think it allows you to just kind of roll with the punches of a competitive loss to Florida and whatever happens with Georgia. Florida is the biggest opportunity on that on a schedule. You know, if you get that game, that’s going to mean a whole lot to a whole lot of people. But in terms of just what’s important for progress, BYU at the start, Vanderbilt at the end, especially if we’re in this business of six and six, is a realistic outcome. Then you could come to Vanderbilt at five and six and you just no matter what happens the rest of the year, you would lose some sense of opportunity by losing to those guys. It would knock it down a peg and bowl standings. It would be four years in a row, which seems incomprehensible, but it would be true. So those two to me, if you get those two games, then we’re assuming, you know, Tennessee just needs to pick up one more. Kentucky, South Carolina, somebody in there to get to six to get two more of those. You’re at seven. So that to me, Florida is always going to be your biggest opportunity available since I don’t think we’re ready to count Alabama in that conversation yet. But BYU and Vanderbilt at the beginning and the end, you get those I think you’re going to come out of this thing with at least an okay sense of how the season went. If you get both of those games.

Joel:
All right. So that was all very compelling.

Will:
But.

Joel:
But yeah, I just I don’t really care about BYU, really. I don’t know why.

Will:
Oh, oh, oh, no. No. Well, go ahead.

Joel:
You know, it’s a non conference game. And I think are we we have to figure out how to compete in the SEC, you know, and that’s a long road because we’re a long ways away from winning the SEC championship. We’re a long ways even from winning the SEC East. And we’re actually a longer a ways away from even getting lined up with Florida and Georgia to compete for the east. I mean, we’re so far down that we got to worry about just not losing to Vanderbilt anymore, you know? And so I just I just don’t think I’m just more focused on the SEC. And I also think that we’re probably going to win for some reason. So I’m just not worried about it and I don’t really care. So it’s probably bad combination. So don’t tell the team that.

Will:
I

Joel:
That.

Will:
Think I’m looking at it more from the sense of getting one early that you really were allowed to feel good about for

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
More than that.

Joel:
Yeah. That.

Will:
And I think the way things have gone, I think they can survive a competitive loss with Florida and still go into the byway, get three and one excited about not the future, but excited about what the rest of this team could do, because we just haven’t had all the good that they did with Cincinnati, who is probably a comparable opponents. I’d have to go back and research that more. But that Cincinnati team, Butch Jones, Cincinnati, and seeing that they beat in ’11 probably comparable situation to a non power five team coming in. But everything good about that just got tossed when Justin Hunter blew up his ACL in the first

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Drive of the Florida game. So sometimes that happens. But you know, NC State, the good you felt about that, another maybe comparable to BYU kind of situation. You can’t give up a thousand plays of 80 plus yards against the gators a couple of weeks later in that year, in a year three when you’re supposed to pay it off. I just I just think you need a Tennessee needs a win

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
And not not Georgia state, you know, and to get one before. This was Butch’s problem before 2016 is that his big wins came in mid-October or later and they were more stop the bleeding wins or change the narrative wins. It would be nice to get one in September that really counts and matters. And to do that before you have a payoff year before you have like a like a Battle at Bristol where you’re almost relieved to win the thing instead of just kind of being a right, we’re moving in the right direction sort of thing. So that’s that’s just kind of if you get BYU, I think it puts you in a better frame of mind as a fan and a healthier place to try to go. Get South Carolina. Kentucky. Vanderbilt. The games you’re talking about.

Joel:
Yeah, I agree with all of that, the the the lingering impact, positive or negative, will be important just from the from the final result. It just doesn’t feel like something that we can’t recover from. I wouldn’t think into me that my whole analysis of the season going in is just sort of okay, let’s win the non conference. And I know, you know, if we don’t get BYU, then that’s, you know, an assumption that you’ve already made that you’re wrong on and that’s going to feel bad. So I understand that, but I’m just sort of assuming those four and then, you know, assuming three losses, Alabama, Georgia, probably Florida. And so I think the whole season comes down to those other S.E.C. East teams. And I’m I’m ignoring Mississippi State for now, too. But I think it comes down to the other SEC east teams because you got to get out of the cellar. You have to get out of the second tier of the SEC east. And I think that’s a first order of business. And so you get you got to not lose to Vanderbilt. That’s nonsense. Don’t do that anymore. And then you got to get two of the other three. South Carolina, which we haven’t beaten for much too long, too. And then Kentucky and Missouri get get two of those three. And I think that’ll be a success there. So that’s sort of how I’m running it down. Hope it works out that way.

Will:
It’s interesting. I mean, you did a good job in our magazine pointing this out. There’s the scheduling really works to Tennessee’s favor against Missouri and really works against Tennessee when it comes to Kentucky, which there is a whole and I subscribe to this, too, I have even do it. And that win expectancy thing of. I just assume we’re going to beat Kentucky

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Because Kentucky couldn’t beat Tennessee. I mean, couldn’t compete with Tennessee last year then. You know, I don’t I don’t see it happening up there this year when they’re kind of in a rebuild reload. I know some of their fans want to call it reloading and we’ll see about that. But I just I just I’m more confident about Tennessee beating Kentucky at Kentucky than I am Tennessee beating South Carolina in Knoxville or Vanderbilt in Knoxville, for that matter. Just because of that, that sense from a Tennessee perspective, I know they beat us two years ago, but because of everything that was happening with Butch Jones, you just kind of forget about that one. So, you know, that’s. But it’s a good spot on the schedule to catch Tennessee there. But see, I think a lot of this conversation when we talk about record in which games are going to win and which games you’re going to lose. If if Tennessee finds a way somehow to sneak around and beat the Gators or beat Georgia, I know Georgia is off the bye week, too. But let’s. I just don’t think that’s a 0 percent. That’s not at Alabama. Georgia.

Joel:
Yeah, Georgia to us is like Florida against us. No matter how different the teams are in in talent, Tennessee always has a chance again against them

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Or

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
They tend to blow it against us. I guess I’ll put

Will:
Yeah,

Joel:
It that way.

Will:
I think all of that is true, and I don’t think anyone would argue with that. Listen to this podcast. And so if you if Tennessee finds a way to get one of those, it just prevents that saying of where you go seven and five. But you feel like at the end of the year that you didn’t beat anybody because again, this is a lot of the Butch Jones narrative. You need to make memories and then you need to make them last. And can Tennessee go 7 5 and beat BYU, South Carolina, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and the other three non conference teams and be seven and five and say, OK, that was that was a tip of the cap to that year. Sure. But, you know, what are we going to be talking what are we going to remember out of that group at the end? Maybe it’s the bowl game. I don’t know. So you just I think the staff understands that all these guys been around big, big, big time college football long enough to know like some games just matter more than others. And so that, you know, that to me really is a piece of that puzzle, too. Yes. Tennessee needs to win all of those games that you’re talking about. Yes, that is the next step. You have to take it. You’re trying to make progress in the SEC East! But man, it would be really nice to get to get the gators or hey.

Will:
Mississippi State has an outside chance of rolling in here undefeated. If they can beat Auburn, especially the week before they come to Knoxville, there is an outside chance you’re playing Mississippi State as a top 15 team. So that one also could be a potential bulls and board, you know, sort of sort of win. And Missouri certainly and and win to let out. Missouri has an outside chance of being whatever that is. Eight, no. Nine. And before they hit that stretch of Georgia, Florida and Tennessee. And if they split those two, they would still be ranked very high before they played played the Vols. So it doesn’t have to be get the gators or get Georgia. New opportunities arise all the time. None of us thought beating Kentucky would be such a big deal last year until it was. So you just got to. They just need to find seven and five would be a tip of the cap at a job well done, like I say. But oh, it would be so much better if it included at least one in there where we could go back and relive it at the end of the year and remember it fondly and not remember it like last season where you had two really memorable wins. But the moral of the story is you still went five and seven.

Joel:
Yeah, and not just five and seven. Those last two games man, those were just catastrophes. All right. So apart from the big picture, let’s talk about some details. You did this thing over the summer, which I loved so much that I basically plagiarized it a couple of weeks ago. So not just looking at it like wins and losses and what’s teams we’re gonna beat and all that stuff. The things I’ve been calling lead measures, these are things that lead to winning before you get there. I tied them together. As you see, I put more third and short conversions. We’re going to do that more yards per carry regardless of down. We got to get more takeaways or get to get more sacks. We got to get better in the red zone on on defense. And we got to keep Guarantano out of the medical tent. So tell it. Tell us more about those things that you spent a lot of time on them over the summer. But let’s talk about some of those. What do you think are the most important ones? And what do you give me looking at early on?

Will:
So the thing Tennessee was very worst that last year was running on third and short. That’s third and 1 through 3. The average is something like twenty one carries for twenty yards. You know, you remember you watch these games where early in the season, especially if it’s third and one it’s Pruitt, you know, he’s going to say let’s just get a yard and Tennessee just could not do that. So Tennessee was the only team in the country to average less than a than a yard and a half per carry on third and short and they average less than a yard, period. So.

Joel:
That’s not very good, right?

Will:
No, that’s very bad. Very, very bad. And there will be a point not. I mean, look, if Tennessee can’t line up and get a yard against Georgia State, then we don’t even need to have this conversation anymore. But I’d be curious to see against BYU, against the Gators, who clearly have some dudes on the defensive line. If it’s third and one, how many times is Tennessee going to run it into the interior and get stuffed before they decide? All right. Let’s do something else.

Joel:
But

Will:
Help

Joel:
Let me stop

Will:
By.

Joel:
You there just for a second, just because this popped into my mind, you know, Pruitt, it took him a long time to learn that last year.

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Right.

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
Does Chaney have to relearned that to where are we gonna have to wait for him to learn it now?

Will:
That’s a good question. I don’t think Cheney would be afraid of first time offensive coordinator. It’s gonna be in their nature a little bit to two. First, the offensive coordinator for some play caller and like Helton was last year in that kind of situation. The old shotgun on third and one is so easy. You’re such an easy target when you do that and you don’t make it that. I think it’s easier for someone like Chaney, who’s so well established to be to get like we all hate shotgun on third and one. But that was a better option for Tennessee last year

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Than that. Lining it up and just go in. So I would trust Chaney in that situation. Maybe you got it figured out one game. But, you know, hopefully these guys can. These guys are paying for the fancy advanced version of the stats package that I’m just getting for free and compiling stats. So hopefully they know all that. But that’s that’s the big thing. The good news about that is if you’re in if you’re in third and 1, you did an all right job on the first and second. Now you know, you’re on schedule, as they say. So Tennessee was okay if they didn’t go backward on on first down. If they if they did something that didn’t wasn’t a sack or a blow up behind the line and there were fewer of those last year than there were the year before then they did okay. It’s just they couldn’t they couldn’t do what really should be the easiest piece of that. I mean, this is all in the piece I wrote. But statistically, it was better. It was better for Tennessee to be in third and medium and pass than to be in third and short and run. So that’s got to change or you just run less on third and short. So that’s the area for most possible improvement. The most interesting one to me as the business is about running fewer plays than anybody in the country.

Will:
I just don’t know. I have got some guesses in terms of trying to protect Pruitt, trying to protect the defense. That really wasn’t good. Really wasn’t good. All year. They were good at creating turnovers against Auburn. And they were they were good enough to be sure against Kentucky. But Tennessee just got behind so quickly and so many of those other games, I think we really undersold how bad the defense was at times last year. And so one way you protect that is you just shorten the whole thing. And so I will be curious to see. I don’t expect Tennessee to run fewer plays in any team in the country this year. How much faster are they going? How many more plays are they? Are they taking? So that one to me is the most interesting in terms of if you’re still trying to keep Guarantano alive and upright. That’s that’s part of that equation. If your defense is behind your offense because you’ve lost significant contributors on your defense, your defensive line is you have no idea what’s going on up there right now. If you need to win games, if it’s easier for you to win games by scoring a lot of points this year and your head coach is one of the best defensive coordinators of this decade, how how’s that going to work? You know, is Pruitt going to be willing to say, all right, screw it, let’s win this thing? Forty five.

Will:
Forty four. That’s not what he desires, but it may be what Tennessee’s best opportunity to win looks like. So those two, to me, are the most interesting. There are some others just just generally. You’ve got to create more turnovers. Think gets 15 and each of the last two years, that’s not doing you any favors. And just more explosive plays in the running game. Tennessee just didn’t have a lot of that last year. It’s there on the passing game, but wasn’t there in the run game. And also some of those pieces worked together in terms of being more explosives means you run fewer plays, but your your plays are more successful. If Tennessee can be good enough to get in a lot of third and short, again, just being a little bit better, little little improvements. And this is kind of the theme of our magazine, little improvements here and there. This is really good on special teams last year. It doesn’t matter when you’re getting beat up by 26 points by everybody. But some of those pieces of the puzzle are already in place. So, you know, just a little improvements and a couple of those areas could end up making a big difference for this team this year.

Joel:
So this is one of the many reasons I love you, because that was like the most diplomatic way of saying you left out the most important thing that I wrote in my plagiarized version of a year earlier one. What about the number of plays? I wasn’t quite sure how to add a you know. I mean, are you. Are you going to be watching to see how fast they run or how many plays they run each game and all that stuff for that? That’s not really going to measure or just something you’re you’re sort of interested to see as a philosophic kind of change.

Will:
I think I think it’s more philosophy than anything. I think that. Those guys were so aggressive against the gators last year and none of it worked.

Joel:
Yeah, yeah,

Will:
You know, like

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Like so hyper aggressive and I think hyper aggressive in measurable ways, not just because we’ve been watching Butch Jones for five years and we’re used to that stuff. I mean, everything was go for the throat. I think, again, these guys understand that some wins are worth more than others. And it just, you know, in unusual and surprising ways backfired on them. And then, you know, the team didn’t respond well when it backfired on him. It just the hole got much deeper, much quicker. So I wondered about that from from there going forward. But also, there’s still there’s just such a big jump from the Gators to Georgia and Alabama that, you know, against Georgia last year, their playing it mostly down. And that all had one. It was one big splash play. Right. They threw it to Ty Chandler. I think if I’m remembering this game. Right. And it was my son’s first birthday party that day last year. So I don’t have all the I got other memories going on there. But a.

Joel:
Well, probably better ones.

Will:
Yeah. But, you know, going into the fourth quarter there, they’re down, what, twenty four to twelve. So, you know, there is some merit to let’s play a certain kind of game and keep it close. Kentucky that that game plan really worked. It shouldn’t be Kentucky by more if they don’t fumble in the second half. So I’ll just be curious to see. I think Chaney can do it any way you want it. I don’t think he has to do up tempo and let’s try to score a touchdown on every play. And he hasn’t been that guy in his first year at places. He’s been much more. You know, we’re building something here and that kind of stuff. Now, I’m not sure any of the first places he’s been in the first year had that kind of talent coming back at quarterback and wide receiver that Tennessee has now. So if they can block it, I think you can do lots and lots of things. And again, we may look we may come to this thing the week after the Florida game and say they can’t block it like it’s just what it is. They still can’t walk. We can talk for hours and hours all we want. But if you can’t block it, you can’t do it.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
So,

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Yeah, I’m just I’m just interested philosophically in how are they are they going slow on purpose to protect the defense? Again, that may not have it all put together. Are they are they going slow on purpose to limit the number of times that their quarterback is going to get hit when they don’t have anybody behind them? And really, we didn’t get to see this a whole lot last year. We saw it against Kentucky and we saw it for a second against South Carolina. What do they do when they get up 10 points on somebody? What what sort of urgency or put the foot down on people? Do they do they really put the foot down on Kentucky with a blocked field goal and turnovers in the red zone? It wasn’t really the offense that did it. It was a Hail Mary at the end of the first half. And then just kind of, you know, keeping it together as much as you could with Auburn. They they went into conservative mode against Auburn at the right time, like all that worked out well and fine. But there’s just some stuff that these players just don’t know. These guys don’t know a whole lot about playing with a lead on a good team. So, yeah, I don’t I don’t. That’s a long and rambling answer to say I don’t know. I think it’s fascinating. I think it’s it’s really fascinating that Tennessee ran fewer plays in the country than any other team. But I don’t know how much that’s going to change this year. And I’m really interested to find out.

Joel:
So speaking of, if you can’t block it, you can’t you can’t run it. We got a glimpse of Florida against Miami to kick off the season last Saturday. Defense looks good, but it was sloppy in the line, as I said, looked vulnerable. I mean, for both teams, me them getting getting them both confused. But I think they both looked bad on the offensive line. And Feleipe Franks is becoming one of my least favorite rivals ever. Quickly. But he looked rattle-able. So what do you think? Was it was that just first game rust that you’re probably noticing more because they were playing a good opponent on the first game? Or are maybe they not quite as good as advertised?

Will:
The best comment on that game I can remember is somebody on Twitter had it looks like this game is being played in a monsoon and there’s not a drop of rain out there like that. My favorite, favorite comment about that game. The good news about the Gators is you’re gonna get another live fire. I don’t know who they got. They’re off this week. I don’t know who they got next. But then they got Kentucky. So you will at least we’ll get another data point on them before before we see them,

Joel:
Do they

Will:
Because

Joel:
Have three

Will:
The.

Joel:
byes because of that? I should look at that.

Will:
I think they they should, right, because they’re playing a week early on and they’ve got the same. They’ve got they have a week one by, you know. Nobody else has that weak one by other than them in Miami and I’m sure Arizona. But yes, I’m sure there’s there’s other buys built in there, probably one before Georgia because that’s how it works for them. But now I feel like in talking with other Tennessee fan, in talking, it’s fun being in southwest Virginia because you get, you know, objective opinion on games like that that everybody’s watching. But these folks don’t care if the Gators win or lose. And the objective opinion was just what a ridiculous like perfect week zero game it was. But I feel like among Tennessee fans and I can be talked into this, too, there’s this school of thought after being so aggressive against him last year. Like, maybe we should just wait for them to do something dumb. Looks like they seem they seem eager to be dumb on offense

Joel:
Well,

Will:
And

Joel:
Defensively

Will:
Maybe.

Joel:
To you and the cornerbacks at the end of the game.

Will:
Yeah. Yeah, a little bit. But I mean, like maybe, maybe, maybe we just sit back and are like, all right. Like, here you go. If you don’t score on us, it’s gonna be a twelve play drive and we think you’re gonna do something dumb on plays one through eleven. So, you know, it’ll be interesting to see. That’s the old again, we’re old guys doing this. The team that runs for the most yardage wins this game in Tennessee with with the one exception of of Dobbs and all those guys there. And then really weird 2016 game. Every time Tennessee tries to outgun Florida, they lose in this rivalry. So I appreciate the aggressiveness, even though it failed spectacularly last year. I appreciate that that mentality. But that’s why we just need we need to see him against Kentucky, because I feel like that’s kind of what you’re talking itself into now as well. Franks is going to throw a two stupid interceptions against us. He might, but he might not.

Joel:
So one of the things I find really interesting about that Florida game is that, you know, the commentators were saying there’s you know, it’s it’s sloppiness because there is no preseason in the college game. And so, you know, people them in that have been thudding don’t know how to tackle yet. And they’ve got a lot of rust and stuff to knock off. And I just think you’re more likely to see that against a good team than you are maybe against, say, a cupcake. All right. So we got to we’ve got to wrap this up. But is there anything you want to say about Georgia State before we conclude sorry, Georgia State fans.

Will:
No. No. I mean, I’m even struggling. I’m still more interested in big picture conversation about Tennessee than what’s going to happen against Georgia State this week. So. Even the even the interesting things of which like is Eric Grey going to be the first substitute for Ty Chandler? That’s interesting a little bit.

Joel:
Mm hmm.

Will:
But the other stuff, if you’re if it’s much more interesting beyond that and a couple of other kids, even questions like how many offensive linemen do they rotate some of that? We’re just going to say, well, it’s because we were playing Georgia State or is that really how it’s gonna be? So there’s there’s very little of that and more just about again, let’s enjoy our first week one cupcake since 2013. And let’s take a look at some of these other teams and let’s keep everybody healthy. And as long as Tennessee looks, you know, they’re favored by three or four touchdowns. As long as they do that, then I think we’re just kind of still in a holding pattern. And we’ll see what BYU does on Thursday.

Joel:
So you think we cover? My machine is saying no.

Will:
I think it’s I think it’s about right. It’s trending down, it’s trending. It was twenty five and a half. Maybe it’s the last time I saw it. So, again, one one question that is interesting in the big, big picture, how fast they put the backup quarterbacks in there. At what point are you comfortable with that lead? So I think that that could if Tennessee is up 20 one late in the third quarter and they go ahead and put the backups and then, you know, the fact that they don’t cover if they don’t cover from that point, I think that’s not really fair. But I think it’s about right. I think it’s, you know, twenty twenty seven, twenty eight four possessions. I think that’s I think that’s fine.

Joel:
Well, that would be just fine with me. So you have my approval to set that line right there. So.

Will:
I think what I picked up picks contests was something more like thirty five because it’s week one and I’m feeling good. But yeah, I you know, we haven’t earned the right to complain about this. This isn’t Butch Jones, year four. We haven’t. We haven’t earned the right to complain about being a Georgia state by only twenty five or whatever.

Joel:
All right. Well, there you have it. Our back from summer edition of The Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. Live from Daufuskie with no Internet. Actually, that’s not where I’m at. I’m back. I’m back from Daufuskie. I made it home on the ferry. So we will be back. We’re planning on a recap that we post maybe Tuesday morning podcast and then maybe a preview that we’ll probably post Thursday morning. But we’ll be playing a little bit by ear because we got youngins running the household and waking us up at 6:00 and making us drink caffeine with cream at nine thirty on the kitchen counter. So all subject to change. But as always, thanks for listening to the Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast. We will see you next time whenever it is. And for Will Shelton, I’m Joel Hollingsworth. And thanks for listening.

Joel:
And of course, then it went through, it just didn’t want to hear my thing about her, about Florida.

Will:
That’s the trigger language about week zero announcers and all that good stuff.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
So.

Joel:
Hey, do you mind if I turn it off, though, and try calling you back on Google Talk? Just in case we need

Will:
Nuts.

Joel:
That as a backup.

Will:
That’s fine.