It’s not quite August yet, but the heat has broken (for now) and the birds are singing outside my window, so it’s feeling like a good time to throw open the garage door and take the GRT Expected Win Total Machine for a spin.
For those who might be new to this, this is an alternative method of gauging your expectations for the upcoming season. Rather than just assigning Ws and Ls to games, you assign each game a confidence level as a percentage. If you’re positive the Vols will win, you give it 100%. If you’re positive they’ll lose, you give it 0%. Toss-ups hover somewhere around 50%.
We take those numbers, crunch ’em up good, and spit something back at you that we believe better approximates what you really expect the win-loss record to be this fall.
We’ll likely do this again as we get more information from fall practice, but this will give us all a pretty good benchmark heading into the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
Use the form below to submit your data and get your answer.
My results and expectations
I’m at 6.55 wins. Here’s how I feel about each game, with space between the order of the games to help show relative confidence level of each game at this point:
My preliminary thoughts about each game are below. Leave yours in the comment section.
The non-con
The Vols have a relatively easy non-conference schedule this fall. Those of you who know me know that I never get to 100% certainty, but I do have both Chattanooga and Georgia State at 95%.
UAB and BYU are both a step above the others, but I still have them at 85% and 80%, respectively.
The Big 3
Alabama, Georgia, and Florida are all likely losses this season, but in different degrees. I have Alabama at 5%, Georgia at 15%, and Florida at 30%. Offensive lines matter, y’all.
Where the season will turn
The season will turn on the games against the rest of the SEC East and Mississippi State. I currently have all of these teams as toss-ups at 50%. I had to order them for the table, so I settled on Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Missouri, and Kentucky, in order of likelihood of winning. As I said last week, I think Missouri’s a better team than Kentucky this year, but that the Vols have a slightly better chance against Missouri than Kentucky due to quirks in the schedule.
What about you? What are your numbers, what’s your expected win total, and why?
I’m at 7.05; most of that difference is being more confident vs Kentucky
Sounds like you’re a lot more confident vs. Kentucky. What percentage did you assign to that game?
70%
7.44 Which feels a little higher than I would’ve expected. But to be honest, I’m in the mindset that 7-5 is what the team will and should get. I honestly feel that 9 regular season wins isn’t off the table, but it’s certainly on the far side of an extremely long table. It would require all the breaks going our way, large improvements from players in year 2, the right freshman making impacts, etc… 6-6 is definitely possible, but I’d still say is a very slight disappointment. Anything less is a definite disappointment. As far as opponents, I still the… Read more »
So, basically I’ve somehow become the most pessimistic person on the blog. Woo!
See, don’t be so down. We now know you’re #1 at something! XD
I came out at 5.96, because I guess I am the most pessimistic person on the blog (take THAT, Joel!). I am somewhat less optimistic about the middle tier (USCe, Mizzou, UK).
It’s not that I am laden with ennui, per se, but…I suppose I’m kind of in “show me” mode. I will not take for granted that the Vols are markedly better than that middle tier until they prove it.
Eerily, you are now TIED for most pessimistic at 5.96. Before running the numbers I would have guessed about one more win (I feel like this should be a 7-5 team.)
My specific numbers are as follows: Georgia St. 99, BYU 65, Chattanooga 99, @Florida 15, Georgia 10 (would have been 5 in Athens), Miss. St. 40, @Alabama 1 (so you’re tellin’ me there’s a chance!), South Carolina 45 (same 5% home bounce as Georgia), UAB 85, @Kentucky 40, @Mizzou 40, and Vanderbilt 57.
I feel compelled to ask you the story behind that 57.
LOL, it is odd, isn’t it. I knew I was above 50, got into that neighborhood on the meter, and – not gonna lie – thought of Heinz 57.
Behold the power of branding!
I’ll gladly give up my short-lived title, provided you grant me a license to use the word “ennui” in the title of an upcoming post of my choosing.
My results are 8.85… guess I got a little carried away with “positivity” 🙂 and orange colored glasses. Go Vols!!
I think deep down, we all hope you’re right and we’re wrong.
5.17 makes me the most pessimistic of the lot. I will believe it when I see it. I put Georgia at 5 and Bama at 1. My coin flip games are really close to 50-50 with several tosses going against us. I really think we will be 6-6 with lousy bowl win. But we are a basketball school anyway. Did you see us end up with the 4th best home attendance average last year? Syracuse, Kentucky and Carolina were the only schools ahead of us. That makes 41 straight seasons in the top 25. Orange Blood Basketball school.
7.10 for me.
I actually brought UGA up to 30 like Florida. Mostly because I felt that the 2017 result was an anomaly and 2018 came down in the last 5 minutes of the 4th before it got blown out of control. We’re a more complete team than we were during those two years and I think UGA will come in overconfident.
Yeah, it’s odd how close we’ve been to Georgia. They seem to be the other side of the coin that Florida’s on. We can’t beat Florida no matter how bad they are (save one exception), but we seem to always have a chance against Georgia no matter how good they are.
GSU – 95%
BYU – 60%
Chatt – 98%
@UF – 40%
UGA – 25%
MSU – 55%
@Bama – 10%
SC – 60%
UAB – 85%
@UK – 55%
@Mizzou – 40%
Vandy – 70%
So… 6.93
BYU and SC the same, huh?
Mine is 6.85.
Reasonable.
I came in at 6.61…. if we have a serviceable O line I would go with 8 wins, no improvement 6, some improvement 7……. success or lack of, is up front!
Yeah, it all comes down to the lines, primarily on the offensive side.
I’m at 6.5.
GA State, UTC, UAB all at 100, BYU – 75, Vandy, UK, Mizzou, SC all at 50, FL – 25, Miss St. 20, AL – 15, GA – 15. Not sure why I classed MSU with the big dogs and everyone else seems to think it’s a toss-up
Yeah, that’s what jumped out at me. Why do you think that game is going to be that tough?
I am sitting on 7.61 wins. Which if I remember correctly puts me close to the Vegas line of 7.5. I believe this will be the year we break the Muschamp curse. I also believe UF, UGA and Bama will be near certain losses.
Late comment: I just saw the FPI win % for each game and popped them into the GRT. 7.6 wins.
97/81/99/31/33/55/12/63/95/61/50/83 Bama is the 12. I’ll eat my hat if we have a 12% chance of beating Bama.