Gameday on Rocky Top Podcast – Episode 157 – Perception-y stuff and the Georgia Bulldogs

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GRT Podcast 10.2.19 was automatically transcribed by Sonix with the latest audio-to-text algorithms. This transcript may contain errors. Sonix is the best way to convert your audio to text in 2019.

Joel:
This is the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast, episode 157. Joel Hollingsworth and as always, I am joined by Will Shelton. The Vols are coming off a bye week this week and Saturday night. They are hosting number three, Georgia in Eli Stadium. I think that's at 7:00 on ESPN, if I remember correctly last.

Will:
This.

Joel:
Good, good. Last year, the Georgia game, if I remember right, was actually sort of the first glimpse of some degree of hope. It was the one where after the game, Jeremy Pruitt got all choked up because it was the first time he'd seen fight out of his guys. And we're kind of hoping for something similar this season. Hope has been hard to find in 20, 19 so far. So we're hoping to see sort of the first glimpse of glimpse of something that will make us believe that the whole thing isn't just going down the toilet. But here's the thing. They can have. They could have had the best bye week ever. They could actually be improved. They could actually be better. And they might still look worse just because they're playing the number three team in the country. So I know we just played number nine, Florida, but I think there is a world of difference between number nine, Florida. Number three, Georgia. So let me start there, Will. Do you agree with that statement? How much? If so, how much better do you think the Georgia Bulldogs are than the Florida Gators this year?

Will:
I do agree with that statements. So I think. Notre Dame is an interesting piece of this puzzle. How good do we think Notre Dame is? I think pretty good. I think Notre Dame was weird spot last week coming off of loss in Athens. It was really important to him. And playing a feisty Virginia bunch that hit some plays in the first half, did some good things at Notre Dame, still just took care of business in the second half and really turned him away. So I think that's the mark of a good program. Brian Kelly's had a role in there for a long time now, so I think Notre Dame's pretty, pretty solid. So I think that means Georgia is even more solid and the best information we have on the Gators. Is Miami and Tennessee teams that don't particularly look great. And a Kentucky team that looks worse each week. Some of that is a quarterback issue there, too. But so listen. By kickoff, we can answer that question much better because you're going to get Florida against the team that has the best resume of anyone in the country right now at three thirty. So Auburn will tell us quite a bit that does create a bad scenario for Tennessee if Auburn steamrolled the Gators and then Georgia steam rolls us. That's not a fun Saturday. And the other the other half of that really to go back and say, yes, I agree with all this. Tennessee could be better. Tennessee could do a lot of things and Tennessee could lose to Georgia. Tennessee could not be within 12 points of Georgia in the fourth quarter like they were last year in Athens. The real kicker here now to me is how bad Mississippi State looked last week, because now a game that I don't think any one has in the old expected win total machine that anybody said that about 50 percent since Tennessee lost at Georgia State. I mean, the assumption was Mississippi State was really good, or at least above average. And I mean, they just Auburn decimated them in the first half of that game and coasted. I thought from there. So now.

Joel:
Yeah, they scored like, what, twenty three points or something. But those were those were not real points. I don't think.

Will:
I mean, Auburn was at thirty five in a heartbeat in that game. So now the thing I said, I think a couple of weeks ago or maybe even last week on this podcast was, hey, it's important that Tennessee competes with Mississippi State. Not not so far as to say that that's a must win for anything other than like bowl hopes. But you lose this Mississippi state team by like 10 or 14 in Neil and Stadium, who looks a lot worse now than it did this time last week. So,

Joel:
Mm mm mm mm.

Will:
Yeah, lots of lots of perception, a stuff. That's Tennessee. Tennessee could be better and still look bad this week. And I think Tennessee could even beat Mississippi State at this point and still not necessarily be a whole lot better. So, yeah, I think a lot of this and I know we're going to talk about the quarterback situation. A lot of the perception on Tennessee I think is going to hinge on how much of that plan. Brian Mauer, because if you're if you're making a full switch here, there's no such thing as resetting the clock in a year when you lost the Georgia state in the season opener. But you can you can you can change the narrative a little bit here, too. Now, we can at least find out if this guy is going gonna be a live option for Tennessee going forward here in the future. So I don't I don't know how much you're going to see him or if he's going to start to play the whole time or whatever. But, you know, lots of lots of narrative stuff on the line here and a game where no matter which narrative you pick, it's likely that Georgia is going to take care of business.

Joel:
Yeah, we'll get to the quarterback a little bit more here in a minute, but first I want to say that I'm really interested to see what the robo transcriber thinks of the word perception. I might actually call the podcast the perception, the podcast, because I like that word. So.

Will:
There's love. That's one of my favorite things to do each week is go back and read with the robo transcriber, thinks of all kinds of things. There was a good I've forgotten what it was and I don't have access to my tablet right at the second to look it up while we're talking here. But there is a good phrase.

Joel:
Something about a women rush or something, a five woman rush.

Will:
Well, it was a fright, Noto is a phrase a couple of weeks ago that we kept using or I think I kept using over and over and a Kivon Bennett can't translate. It is something different every time. But I don't remember. So sorry. I promise it was funny.

Joel:
All right.

Will:
Read the transcript for entertainment and not for this. That's for pleasure and not for business.

Joel:
Yeah, I used to go through and corrected all of it. You know?

Will:
Oh, it's way more fun this way.

Joel:
Yes, it is. And it takes a lot less time, sir.

Will:
It's right.

Joel:
All right. So before we got on, you had mentioned that you were monitoring Twitter because you you still you still look at Twitter. And I avoided like a plague. So I don't I don't I didn't see this. But something about former coming out and saying, no, no, no, I'm not going to. I'm not going to coach. And that comes, of course, from something we mentioned as nonsense. I think in the last episode, which was from Pete family at Yahoo! And then I think it came up again this week because there was an article by some writer at ESPN with a list of hot seat coaches and Jeremy Pruitt was first on the list, which again, is ridiculous. And the thing is, they're saying that all of this is just an opportunity for Fulmer to get back on the sideline, which is what he's really wanting to do. His whole goal, like he's this devious schemer and it's been his whole plan for 10 years and he's now just executed it. So anyway, you know, the thing is, those those articles quote these sources, you know, but I am pretty sure that the guy from ESPN as source was Pete family and and vice versa. So I think what you and I should do right now on record and the podcast is we should. I'm going to tell you that Pete family was that ESPN guy's source. So now you can go write an article quoting a source that Pete Bama was that guy's source. So that's the plan. Does.

Will:
Yeah. Say something about those hot seat rankings before we get to the former thing. I guess there may not be any more disappointed fan base. Well, disappointment is relative. I think the line between how we thought things were going to go and how things have actually gone here, I think Tennessee is at or near the top of that list. These are not the conversations we thought we were going to have about record and about quarterback, which is the position that most impacts your record. So, sure,

Joel:
Here

Will:
Tennessee is there,

Joel:
You

Will:
But just

Joel:
Can I just

Will:
Got.

Joel:
Time out just on that. So hold that thought in book market. But we always think that because we're that's what we're paying the most attention to. But Michigan fans got to feel terrible. Nebraska fans maybe, you know, there's a whole lotta heartache and misery out there on the landscape, too. Although I do think we we win that race right now.

Will:
Yeah, I think the difference in perception this he still has a chance to win the disappointments component. That's got to be Michigan, right? That because that's a team you're thinking about. Can we make the college football playoff

Joel:
Yep,

Will:
This year?

Joel:
Yep.

Will:
Urban's out. Can we beat Ohio State? And not only is the answer, no, but wow, Wisconsin emphatically no. That was my favorite line that someone had on Twitter. And I'm sorry, I said it's a lot on the podcast that I can't hear on the fly. It was on Twitter. So kudos to whoever it was on Twitter when Wisconsin, where they alternate unis the following week with the brown pants that someone in Wisconsin so thoroughly dominated Michigan that now they're allowed to wear khakis when they play their game. I feel that those tremendous whoever that was. Kudos to that person. So. Yeah, most disappointed would be a team like Michigan that had a college football playoff aspirations, national championship aspirations fairly legitimately and now has them no longer and might think about, you know, what is the future with this coach perception versus reality. Tennessee's in that conversation of how we thought this would go. But all that to say, it's ridiculous to have Pruitt number one on your hot seat rankings simply because he's only been here for 16 games. I can assure you, living in southwest Virginia that Justin Fenty has a hotter seat than Jeremy Pruitt right now simply because this is year four for one day and he's not supposed to be getting blown out by Duke at home. So, yeah, that's you can say that Tennessee's perception versus reality is worse than Virginia Tech's think Virginia Tech did and wasn't sure what they had, but they were hoping it was this. Whereas Tennessee, we thought we were making progress. And turns out not not yet. But just by the nature of him being the head coach for only 16 games, it's unrealistic to say he's on the hottest seat in America.

Will:
That's just absurd. He might next year, but not right now. So on the former stuff, he's on board calls earlier tonight. We're taking this on Wednesday night, vocals just went off the air. It's where the best Tennessee information gets passed around. Former would know that his vocals is a very former, very Tennessee way to say this. He came on and did the typical A.D. support of embattled head coach with some specific points about former saying before Pruitt got here, we didn't know how to practice and that we didn't have any 300 pound guys. And now we know how to practice. Now we have 300 pound guys, little passive aggressive shot there. Butch Jones, which I think is fine and former included saying that the coaching portion of his career, the coaching chapter of his career is closed. So I think that's I think that's fine. I think that's obvious. Sometimes we we tell ourselves stories long enough that, you know, we believe they can come true. I think for for that narrative of, well, former wants to show everyone that they were wrong. Isn't that point already made? I just I just feel like. And look, I'm I'm still young enough to have a lengthy argument with anyone that wants to have this argument for people that will say, well, we absolutely still should have fired former. We just made the wrong choices from their. A little fast and loose with the word absolutely there. I think we should not talk about things being such a sure thing or absolutely the right decision, given the length and breadth and width and height of our disaster here in the last eleven years and trying to get it fixed.

Will:
So I listen. I wrote at the time, I thought the guy should have said, you know what, 2009 will be my last season. I was a former forever back then or anything like that. I do think some of the historic advance stats, stuff like SB Plus, if you turn the page back, look a little more fondly on 2006 and 2007 than we did at the time. And I think that, you know, that inability in 2008 to stop that snowball from rolling down the hill couldn't get a win to stop the bleeding the way it did in 0 7. Over and over again. Oh, it certainly hurt. But I think the point is made. I don't think former needs to come back and win some games here for us to say, hey, things were better when you were our head coach. That's a lot of the hope now, right? Things will be better because he's the athletic director. So I think that former is doubling down on Pruitt being his guy and that and outright saying he is not ever coming back to coach again. So I think that should help close an unnecessarily open door. And again, the very best things for Tennessee would be Jeremy Pruitt figuring this out and learning on the job and going from there. And the former knows that, too. So hopefully that's that's what continues to happen.

Joel:
Yeah, it's it's kind of interesting that two, five and seven seasons in four years was enough to do him in, and we traded that for pretty much nothing. But if in seven seasons for many years in a row. Anyway, back to this year. Jarrett Guarantano. He got pulled against Florida. Then he got put back in. So for two weeks, we've had this question about who's going to play quarterback against Georgia. Most everybody just thought, well, you know, it's gonna be Garrett Johnson. Now that we we pulled him and got, you know, got his attention, which is what we needed to do and all the stuff. But apparently there is some growing chatter that it might actually be Mauer. My source on that is Will again paying attention to Twitter. When I was somewhere else. So what is where is that chatter coming from? Well, and what are your thoughts on it?

Will:
Well, that and let me say that is not Twitter. That's that's some stuff that vol quests.

Joel:
Oh,

Will:
Just something

Joel:
Okay.

Will:
To good point on Vault Quest earlier today to say and Vault Quest is great. I'm a subscriber. You should be a subscriber to all that good stuff. But at one point he was making is to say, look, we don't want to the media doesn't get to see much of practice. So you want to take any practice observations with a grain of salt, but observing practice today. So things seem to be trending a little more in Bowers direction in terms of division of repetitions. And some of that may just be a package. Are they going to put in a package for him? That is a little more athletic oriented than what Garen Tanto has. So I don't know. I think, again, from from the narrative of the season and all that stuff, you can't hit the reset button at this point if you're Pruitt on this year, but you can't at least just reignite some interest and some curiosity. Even if he looks bad against Georgia, anybody might look bad. Quarterbacking this team against Georgia right now. So really, if we're talking about now are the questions for me is how do you look next week? How would you look against South Carolina? Tennessee needs wins. I just don't think you can say if you're still trying to get the six wins. If you're trying to make this season matter, if you're trying to spark something that could carry forward into the future, you need to beat Mississippi State.

Will:
So, you know, I think it's it's there's it's an even more lost cause if you subscribe to that school of thought of let's hold him out until South Carolina so he doesn't have to play Alabama. And I just don't know. I don't think anybody knows what to think of Garen Snow at this point. I mean, there's sort of some of this, too, is message boards stuff. But just the growing kind of assumption here that. It just doesn't seem like him coming back to Tennessee next year is in anybody's best interests at this point. This sense that he could graduate and transfer and go somewhere else. It's shocking to me that we're talking about that here in the first week of October. But, you know, the idea that guaranteed it would be the starting quarterback at Tennessee next year, which he technically has the eligibility to do. That seems far away from anybody's radar right now. So we've talked to plenty on his podcast about Crompton and about other turnarounds in the past. And I would love to see that from him. But we don't see a lot of signs pointing in that direction right now.

Joel:
I'm still holding hope that that's what's going to happen. By might be the only one, but that's kind of what I want to see. Did did you see it? There was a paywall thing at 2 4 7 with West Rucker interviewing the Georgia 2 4 7 guy, I guess. Did you see that piece?

Will:
I'd say that.

Joel:
Ok. So it was really interesting. Kind of funny, too, by the way. If you have access to sugary that one. But one of the things that really jumped out at me was he asked a question, you know, what do you do to try to try to beat Georgia? I know every team has some vulnerabilities. What's the thing? And he goes, well, I don't know, you know. It seems like when we struggle, it's against mobile quarterbacks. No team ever says, I'm really glad to play a team whose quarterback can run. Right. And I don't know really know whether that's true or not. But the Georgia beat guy 4 2 4 7 thinks that. So that might be one reason why they might want to go with Mauer, Maurer, Mauer, Mauer,

Will:
Mauer is what I

Joel:
Mauer.

Will:
Keep saying that does that just get right? But I think that's Brian Mauer.

Joel:
He'll tell us three years from now if we're mispronouncing

Will:
That's right.

Joel:
It.

Will:
That was not worth more wins, as it

Joel:
It

Will:
Turns out.

Joel:
Was not so in the other thing I think about this. You know, it's like Josh Ward's podcast, which as long as we're plugging it, that last week we plugged the athletic. You really need to subscribe to that. Will says you need to subscribe to vol quest. I'm telling you right now, you need to listen to Josh Palmer podcast every day. It's great stuff. Although he did say something this week that he was kind of rough on on Pruitt basically refusing to name quarterbacks, saying we're not going to give Georgia scouting report. And his point was, well, that's going to help. Right. But the thing is, Prue is trying to win. You know what? Even if you aren't going to win, you still want the guy to try to win. Right. And I get this theory about Pruitt that he doesn't know how to play, not to win. He doesn't know how to play like an underdog. He just doesn't have that that mindset. And I think that's why maybe you see these huge score disparities like like we haven't seen part of that is because we're bad. OK, I'll concede that. All right. But I think part of it is also is that he doesn't, you know, say, OK, well, how can I keep this close into the fourth quarter so we can maybe sneak out a win? I don't think he thinks like that. And so, you know, if he thinks a mobile quarterback is where Georgia might be weak and, you know, he's got Georgia Intel, right? He knows Georgia.

Will:
Oh. Yeah.

Joel:
Yeah. So if he thinks that that might be a way to score an extra touchdown or something and maybe actually make a game of it, that might be what he's trying to do. So that's my theory. I'm a stick to it and I'm going to delete the podcast if it turns out to be wrong.

Will:
I

Joel:
So.

Will:
Think, you know, if we're a year from now having this conversation about Jeremy Pruitt or having a conversation about who's Tennessee needs a new coach, who's that coach going to be, and we do the thing that we always do, which is we pendulum swing to the other side. That Pendleton swing next time will be. We need someone that knows how to grow a program, knows how to take a losing thing and make it a winning thing. If that happens, you could talk a lot about Will Healy. That's at Charlotte right now. That was it. S&P, which, by the way, that Tennessee's opening opponent next season. Woods It's not one you want to lose if you're Jeremy Pruitt because folks will be talking about that guy for a while. But anyway, something like that somewhere we're talking about. We need someone that's been in the SCC and understands the expectations the way Butch Jones didn't knows what it's like to develop five star talent. All that stuff. Yeah. I think the Florida game last year is proof of that proof. And he said outright that the reason they lost by 26 and not 19 is because he played a goal on defense there to try to create a stop that Florida just went to the outside and scored a late touchdown. So, yeah, I mean, I think I think there's some truth in that, that he doesn't know how to win as an underdog. Yeah. And I'm trying to think of games. I think he's conservative. Defensive nature can play into that a little bit in terms of getting a lead and then milking the clock and hanging onto it and that sort of stuff. It's a big fan of the onside kick last year. Also, if it doesn't work, is is a very risk reward situation. So, yeah, you could be onto something there. I will say two were terrific quarterbacks and I've been thinking about do you know what I think the phrase in the podcast I was trying to think of that the translator has so much fun with. You know what I think it is?

Joel:
What's it?

Will:
I think it's Jarrett Guarantano SEC.

Joel:
Ok.

Will:
So it just goes to show like how much we're just kind of writing off. Or at least I am just kind of writing off this guy who has just been the quarterback here at a not fun time to be at Tennessee. And, you know, if he doesn't have transferring or going somewhere else. Man, I hope he does awesome and does great because this is this is not going the way anybody thought it would.

Joel:
No. So in search of maybe just a little bit of hope. I was hoping that maybe you could help us remember 2009. So my feeble old memory is that. Even as late as the Georgia game, we were still sort of reeling from some disappointment and the fact that we thought we had a quarterback who couldn't throw a couldn't complete the screen pass, right. And we were heading into the Georgia game, basically not hoping for anything positive to happen. And we got something totally unexpected. So I was wondering, can you and your vault of a mind sort of remind us of that story? Did I get part of it wrong or how did it all go down?

Will:
No. We touched on this a little bit the last time that Crompton. I think similar to what we're seeing with Garen, no now folks who are out on Crompton going into 2009 because he had struggled along with Nick Stevens and B.J. Coleman struggled so much with the claw offense in 2008. There was just the assumption that he could not get it done. And then when Tennessee couldn't beat UCLA in a game, everyone said was important. On the way in. You know, I knew it from miles away how important it was to win that game. And your defense played lights out. But Cincy could not just couldn't do it and turned the ball over and all that stuff. I think everybody we were waiting for Nick Stevens. He lost to Florida. You were ugly. Kind of in a win over Ohio. You lost to Auburn by 4. But Kiffin was steadfast. Never. Never. Nick Stevens never sniffed an opportunity. And then that Georgia game. Yeah. I mean, this sort of story on that now is that they just took half the field away from crops and and said, all right, you're going to do with this. We're simplifying everything you're gonna do with this half of the field. And Tennessee also had an excellent defense and they had Montreal Hardesty, but the first half in particular of that game. I just remember saying it and writing it at at Rocky Top.

Will:
Talk that at halftime his stat line was like the Ark of the Covenant. That's like, just don't look at it because it was so unbelievable that it would just melt your face off. And, you know, he stayed hot the rest of the game. Tennessee wins that game. Forty five to 19. And then he simultaneously had the ability the next time at Alabama to not get them beat. That's that's a game where you could tell right away. Even though Alabama's rank number one or two or whatever they were, the Tennessee's defense was going to keep them around. And it did. And Crompton, they wanted him to do the mistake free stuff. And he did. And then he hit the one big throw, I think, to Luke Stocker. Right. Right before that infamous field goal that was blocked hit one big throw to put him into a field goal range. That didn't work out, obviously. And then, you know, bounced right around and beat South Carolina right after that heat. And after that, you know, they give up a ton of points to Ole Miss. It's not really Compton's fault. They play a good overtime game against Kentucky where they get the win and that game, and then they run into an extremely underrated Virginia Tech team. The chick's label and they lose. And then twelve hours later is when we get four Tennessee basketball players arrested for guns and drugs in a car.

Will:
And so that story kind of goes away. And then Kiffin leaves, you know, nine days after that. So there was there was a tumultuous, tumultuous time at Tennessee. But, yeah, again, I think we're talking about I mean, truly one of the most surprising things that I have ever seen. But the other one to me that I think is more than just that Crompton game is probably the most surprising individual performance that I've ever seen. So I don't know that we want to hold that up and say maybe that will happen again. But I would go back to Dobbs. If you think about Dobbs in 2014 against Alabama and Knoxville, where Worley has been knocked out for the year again. You've got Peterman who starts that game, plays a couple of series, doesn't do anything. Alabama scores touchdowns with Kiffin as the offensive coordinator. Bama scores touchdowns in our first four possessions. We're down twenty seven and nothing at the end of the first quarter. And you're thinking I was at that game and I'm thinking, you know, these guys could score 100 if they want to. And that's that's just the reality of the situation. And then Dobbs just all of the sudden was a revelation. And Tennessee ends up only losing against the Jeremy Pruitt defense only loses thirty four to twenty.

Joel:
Running quarterback.

Will:
Yeah. And and, you know, just very, very solid all the way through. I mean, just just really surprising the way that Tennessee handled that that entire thing. And one thing you remember, too. DOBBS Other than Peterman, no one has ever looked worse than Dobbs when he played against Vanderbilt the last game of his freshman year when Tennessee had to have it to get bowl eligible. Dobbs is awful. I mean, it made me think this guy will never be the answer at at Tennessee and the last game of that 2013 season. Turns out that was wrong, too. He was a freshman. So you don't know. It's just with guaranteed snow in this, I guess, is where it was more similar to Crompton. We just have so much data already and there hasn't been it's been regression instead of progression. So, you know, I don't know if that shows up Saturday. I'd be wonderful, but I'm I just don't. I don't have warm fuzzy is about it showing up against Georgia and I don't have a lot of warm fuzzy about it showing up against Mississippi State either.

Joel:
Olmert added that last part out because that isn't where I was going. Yeah. So 2014, Alabama, that that was in the midst of, you know, Saban's Alabama writes or really good team. They didn't win the national championship that year. I don't think at least if I got this right in the magazine.

Will:
That's

Joel:
Oh,

Will:
Ohio State.

Joel:
I'll state.

Will:
I think.

Joel:
Yes. Good job. But how good was was Georgia in 2009? I mean, they're there number three this year. Well, what? You know, because you said it was a huge surprise. We weren't very good. I'm assuming we weren't ranked at the time. But how good was Georgia in 2009? Why was it such a surprise?

Will:
So Georgia, let's see, Georgia would have been. Georgia was never one of the country pre-season in 0 8. They were the black jerseys and got killed by Alabama that year and then in nine. I'm going to say I have my tablet in front of it to look this up and be sure. I think in nine they lost to South Carolina early and that's caused some snow and that sort of stuff. So, no, I wasn't. It was not a top 10 Georgia team or anything like that. In fact, I think the South Carolina Tee Martin beat was ranked higher than them. I think that's the highest ranked team that Kiffin beat was Spurs team. But still, you even then a Georgia team. That's OK. We've lost games. Is Rick still the guy that sort of experience? I think one thing about Tennessee then two is Tennessee smoked Georgia in 2007, the year that Georgia finished number two and Tennessee smoked him in the second half in 2006. So I didn't lie. There's a story on the athletic, I think this week about Georgia. You know, the time this rivalry turned in 2010 when both teams were bad and then Georgia rolled Dooley's team the week after we lost at LSU for putting a thousand men on the field at the end of the game. But this was a one possession game from 2011 through 2016. So the last two duly years, it was a one possession game. And the first Bush year, it was the smoking grey pig Howard fumble game. It was a one possession game in Athens the next year, then Tennessee, one in 15 and 16. So I get under Kirby Smart. Tennessee needed a Hail Mary to win it all and then got waxed in 17 and and pulled away from in the fourth quarter last year. I get that. But I don't buy the notion that, well, this rivalry really turned in 2010. This was just a really competitive rivalry for seven years there. Six years there in the middle.

Joel:
That sounds like it was not up in.

Will:
No, it was the Georgia. Georgia

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
Ryder.

Joel:
Yeah.

Will:
But.

Joel:
All right. So.

Will:
Yeah, I mean, it would have been typical, again, Tennessee fans of a certain age. If you were like me and you grew up when Tennessee was putting it on Georgia every year in the 90s, there's still a part of us that's like we should beat those guys. But, you know, that is obviously not dealing in reality right now.

Joel:
Yeah, so I don't think this game is going to go well. I know, but the thing is, I'm trying to brace against drawing too many conclusions from it. That's my it's my whole sort of frame of mind going into this game is that even if you total that, you look the worst, you've looked all season long, which is saying something. I don't I don't know that you can really say that it's anything other than having to play Georgia. I mean, things are just not not positioned well for the Vols on Saturday. I don't know if you saw this actually put the head to head stat rankings up this morning. The first time I've done this. And Tennessee is one hundred and 13th on first downs offense and Georgia is seventh in first down defense for on fourth down. We're one hundred and sixteenth in their twenty first and it's only slightly better on third down where was 70 first and their 18th. So we don't have stats for second down, but I'm guessing they're not very good either. So.

Will:
Well, yes, this may take on the flavor of. A significant percentage of the Alabama gains of this decade, where even in in years when Tennessee was interesting and the season was interesting overall and Tennessee was able to get bowl eligibility and things like that. The like two thousand ten two thousand two thousand thirteen Bush's first year, like the times we used to get killed by Alabama, you just we've just kind of looked at the like. All right. Next. Like, I'm not looking at this to pull a lot of detail about it or anything like that. So, yeah, I mean, it may turn into some of this. Some of that this Saturday is to just say, OK, you know, Georgia won by a thirty one. OK. Next, I will say the event's numbers like Tennessee a little better. The spread was games in Knoxville. So it's twenty four and a half, something like that. Now, I know S&P is like 20.

Joel:
Mm hmm.

Will:
So, again, how how do we get there? Is it like last year where Tennessee is within two possessions in the fourth quarter and Georgia attacks on one late and then Tennessee stumbles and Georgia takes on another one? I mean, that's what happened last year. But, you know, some of it depends on how we get there. But, yeah, I can buy the idea that if Tennessee just gets smoked and not in a self-destructive way, but just in and obviously this team is a lot better than us way. Then again, I think we then I think this time next week we're talking about let's see if we can learn anything different against Mississippi State and just carry it forward from there.

Joel:
All right, freestyle time. Anything you want to bring up?

Will:
Now go to the Braves on Friday night, as beforehand, you. Tennessee has taught me you should never use the phrase I'll just go next time because you the note near next times are not guaranteed. So if I die this weekend is because my Cardinals superfan in laws have murdered me at SunTrust Park when the Braves something good and I try to celebrate it. So celebrate your sports teams. We've been saying for years going back to the console, Martin Day, you don't don't miss opportunities to celebrate. So for the percentage of fans listening to this who are also Braves fans, much to celebrate this year so far and hopefully much beyond this weekend and again for Tennessee, unless two quarterbacks get hurt or, you know, something really unusual happens, which, hey, I mean, we're no stranger to really unusual. Next, we gonna be a gonna be an important week. I mean, it's a big week next week for four narratives and all that stuff where I think we can't actually say something about the outcome as opposed to this week. So I feel like you can't. No one's playing with house money when you're 1 3. But in terms of Pruitt and quarterbacks and all that stuff, we're going to get a good data point against Mississippi State. It looks like. So we'll we'll see what happens.

Joel:
So I think there are a lot of people listening that actually do keep up with the Braves. But for those of us who don't, what is the nutshell? What are they doing?

Will:
The Braves. They're they're awesome. So this is the first round of the playoffs. The Braves and the Cardinals. Game 1 is tomorrow night. Game 2 is Friday night in Atlanta. Unlike last year when the Braves play the Dodgers in the first round and the game spirit like eight thirty five. And people with children are asleep by the third inning. This is this is actually the Braves play at five o'clock tomorrow and 430 on Friday. It's good for adults, but they're just fun. You know, anybody that's watched this team all year, they have some bullpen adventures, but they're running Laconia Junior and Ozzie Albee's. And a lot of these guys are fun and young. And Atlanta has not won a postseason series since 2001. So high time to get that turned back around. So, yeah, I just just, you know, enjoy celebrate that. It's worth celebrating and don't miss opportunities to do so. And I hope that happens for one of my sports teams this weekend.

Joel:
And basketball is coming into the month,

Will:
Yes,

Joel:
So.

Will:
It's coming as fast as it can. It

Joel:
Hold

Will:
Will get here.

Joel:
On, I'm coming. Yeah.

Will:
Yeah, it's. It's going to get here. The will w had a poll on Twitter earlier tonight about. Tennessee plays an exhibition basketball game on October 30th. Who will win next? The football team or the basketball team on October 30th? So if you're taking it, you're taking basketball. That means you think Tennessee is going to lose to both Mississippi State and South Carolina, which could happen. So we could we could have a basketball victory before we have a football victory, in which case we can talk about basketball a lot on this podcast and risk the rest of this season. But yeah, there's there's not much that basketball schedule is loaded. And so some of those basketball conversations may be about, oh, my gosh, where four and 2 is Rick Barnes, should he be fired or whatever, because not having granted ADM and those guys did not keep Barnes from scheduling. We play Washington in Toronto. That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard is Tennessee and Washington getting together. Like, what is the farthest point from both of those schools in it, not just in the United States, but in North America? Is it Toronto? Let's play there. All right. So that's that's all coming up. You could get a shot at Purdue in it over Thanksgiving for a little revenge. Penny Hardaway and Memphis Penny Hardaway had an interview today with the athletic. Ray said Memphis is going to win the national championship this year. He was put out of that and I'd in the second round last year. They're going to win it all this year like basketball. Gonna be fun. Gonna be awesome. Coming as fast as it can.

Joel:
You know, I've heard that Phillip Fulmer is actually working behind the scenes to submarine Rick Barnes so he can get on the sidelines of the basketball court.

Will:
Right. I don't think if I don't know if he specified football coaching career is

Joel:
He

Will:
Not

Joel:
Left

Will:
At all.

Joel:
That door open.

Will:
Tune in next week at Calhoun's on the river and we'll see what happens.

Joel:
All right. That will put a wrap on this episode of the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe, give us a rating, give us a review, bonus points and you get a single face for the bonus paint bonus bonus points.

Will:
Jarrett Guarantano.

Joel:
Jerry.

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
So you just want to see the see

Will:
Yeah.

Joel:
The robot transcriber. Mess it

Will:
The.

Joel:
Up again. All right. Jerry again. Garen Tanto Jarrett Guarantano. Jerry Garen Tanto. See if it gets it wrong. Three similar ways all in a row. So for Will Shelton, I'm Joel Hollingsworth and this has been the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. Yee ha.

Will:
I legitimately feel bad about that, saying I can't think of what the phrase is. I was the starting quarterback at.

Joel:
Well.

Will:
There are some good ones in there.

Joel:
Jeff, good trip.

Will:
Yeah. I ran through the airport, which I've never done before. So

Joel:
Nice. Yeah.

Will:
I ran I ran past those rocking chairs and Charlotte and thought there's a rocking chairs joke told me

Joel:
Yeah,

Will:
About.

Joel:
Yeah. I didn't get a chance to use them.

Will:
They I'd looked to the people eating chicks, lay in them with disdain and scorn.

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What the SPM comps say about Tennessee-Georgia

The SPM went 24-27 (47.06%) in Week 5 on all games, excluding those involving FCS teams and those for which there were insufficient comps. It broke even at 50% both above the pre-chosen confidence level and within the pre-chosen confidence range.

For the season, it’s 106-123 (46.29%) overall, 54-54 (50%) above the confidence level, and 28-18 (60.87%) within the confidence range. It’s not doing as well as I’d like, but it is behaving quite consistently. I’m hoping for gradual improvement as the relevant data grows. This week, we incorporated a tweak to account for those situations where the comps were available but weren’t very close.

Because the Vols didn’t play last week, I didn’t mention this, so I’ll mention it now. The SPM muffed on the Tennessee-Florida game, saying Florida wouldn’t cover the 14-point spread. It did warn us that it wasn’t very confident about it.

Let’s take a look to see what it says this week about the Georgia Bulldogs.

Vols-Bulldogs

From the perspective of Georgia

Georgia points:

  • Georgia scoring offense for the season: 42.8
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.3

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Notre Dame 18.5
  • Arkansas State 36

Georgia scored 55 points against Arkansas State and 23 points against Notre Dame. Basically, they’re scoring 1.43% of what those teams usually give up. From this perspective, the SPM estimates that Georgia will score 36.1 points against Tennessee.

Tennessee points:

  • Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10
  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 26

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Georgia opponent(s):

  • Vanderbilt 23
  • Arkansas State 32.8

Georgia held Arkansas State scoreless and allowed Vanderbilt only 6 points. That’s 0.11% of what those teams usually score, so from this perspective, the SPM estimates that Tennessee will manage only 2.9 points against Georgia. Ouch.

Estimated score: Georgia 36.1, Tennessee 2.9

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 26
  • Georgia scoring defense for the season: 10

The Georgia scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • Florida 8.8
  • BYU 31.2

Against BYU, Tennessee scored 26 points. They scored only 3 against Florida, so they’re basically getting about 0.73% of what those teams usually give up. From this perspective, the SPM estimates 7.3 points for the Vols against the Bulldogs.

Georgia points:

  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.3
  • Georgia scoring offense for the season: 42.8

The Georgia scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

  • Florida 34
  • Georgia State 32.5

Tennessee allowed Florida 34 points and Georgia State 38, which means they let those two teams get 1.08% of what they usually get. So, from this perspective, the SPM estimates 46.2 points for Georgia against the Vols.

Estimated score: Tennessee 7.3, Georgia 46.2

SPM Final Estimates

Putting all of that together, here’s what the SPM gets:

SPM Final estimated score: Georgia 41.2, Tennessee 5.1

SPM Final estimated spread: Georgia -36.1

SPM Confidence level: 19.6

The SPM is feeling pretty good about this one. I hate you, SPM.

Eyeball adjustments

I’d say that looks about right for Georgia’s points, but man do I hope Tennessee scores more than 6. This game has been weird, so I’m just going to go with my gut and say that the Vols score at least an extra touchdown. Let’s call it 13 points for the good guys. So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Georgia 42, Tennessee 13, a spread of 29. That’s still a prediction that they won’t cover.

Other predictions from other systems

The Vegas line opened with Georgia a 16.5-point favorite and by Sunday night had already moved to Georgia -24.5. As of Wednesday morning, it’s Georgia -25 to -26. The over/under of 51.5-52.5 translates to something like Georgia 38, Tennessee 13.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Georgia, 36-16, and gives the Vols a 12% chance of winning. That’s a spread of -20.7, so it likes Tennessee to cover. SP+ is HOT, HOT, HOT right now, notching 58% for the season, including 64% last week.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols an 8.7% chance of winning.

Bottom line

I and the SPM think Tennessee loses this one by 29-36 points and thus fails to cover the spread.

What are y’all thinking?

Tennessee-Georgia: Head-to-head statistical rankings

Putting Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the oppositional rankings for Georgia suggests (1) that the Bulldogs’ defense is going to make the Vols’ offense look bad even if they’ve improved, (2) that the Vols might be able to hold on for a while on defense, and (3) that any opportunity to make this a game will probably come courtesy of special teams or the Maxim 1 categories of turnovers and penalties.

Vols on offense

When Tennessee’s offense goes up against Georgia’s defense, the Vols have only one slight advantage, in Tackles for Loss Allowed. Note that even that is offset by Sacks Allowed, where Georgia has a big advantage, so it’s not that the Bulldogs aren’t getting through the line.

Other than that, the Georgia defense has huge advantages all over the board, most notably on 1st downs. And 4th downs. And Total Defense. They also have the advantage on 3rd downs. Second downs aren’t measured. Sigh. The biggest disparity when the Vols have the ball is on first downs, where the Vols rank only 113th, and they’re going up against a defense ranking No. 7.

Bottom line, expect the Vols’ offense to have a long, long day. Even if they have improved since the beginning of the season, Georgia’s defense is going to make it difficult to see. They’re going to look bad even if they’re actually better, so just brace for it.

Vols on defense

It’s a little more even on the other side of the ball, with Tennessee’s defense having slightly better numbers than Georgia’s defense in the passing game and on 1st and 4th downs.

But Georgia still has more and bigger advantages, most notably in tackles for loss, which is the biggest disparity when the Dawgs have the ball. There’s a similar disparity in sacks. The numbers suggest that the Vols defense is not getting at the guy holding or carrying the ball behind the line of scrimmage.

Special teams

Tennessee might have an actual advantage in special teams. The biggest disparity in the entire matchup comes when Tennessee is kicking off, as the Vols rank 1st in the nation in defense (presumably because our kicker is the King of Touchbacks) and the Bulldogs rank 114th in returning kicks.

There’s also an opportunity for Marquez Callaway to maybe make something happen in the punt return game. This, of course, assumes Georgia punts.

Where the numbers favor Georgia on special teams, it’s only slightly.

Turnovers and penalties

Well look at this. The optimist in me perked up at discovering that the Vols rank better than Georgia at nearly every penalty and turnover category. Unfortunately, rivals will point to this to mock Neyland and his First Maxim.

College Football TV Schedule: Week 6

The Vols host Georgia this Saturday night at Neyland and on ESPN, but there are other games of interest to Tennessee fans this weekend as well. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Thursday, October 3, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Georgia Southern South Alabama 7:30 PM ESPNU Never mind.
Temple East Carolina 8:00 PM ESPN

That is the extent of the Thursday night slate. So yeah, never mind.

Friday, October 4, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
18 UCF Cincinnati 8:00 PM ESPN Live Top 25 team

Could be fun.

Gameday, October 5, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
14 Iowa 19 Michigan 12:00 PM FOX Live Top 25 matchup
AFTERNOON
7 Auburn 10 Florida 3:30 PM CBS Live Top 10 matchup
EVENING
3 Georgia Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN Live Go Vols

Lots of good games this Gameday, and without a lot of competition. In the noon slate, Iowa and Michigan square off in a Top 25 matchup on Fox, and Auburn and Florida do the same at 3:30 on CBS.

And then it’s the Vols-Bulldogs at 7:00 on ESPN.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
10/3/19 Georgia Southern South Alabama 7:30 PM ESPNU
10/3/19 Temple East Carolina 8:00 PM ESPN
10/4/19 UCF Cincinnati 8:00 PM ESPN
10/4/19 New Mexico San Jose State 10:00 PM CBSSN
10/5/19 Utah State LSU 12:00 PM SECN
10/5/19 Oklahoma Kansas 12:00 PM ABC
10/5/19 Kent State Wisconsin 12:00 PM ESPNU
10/5/19 Purdue Penn State 12:00 PM ESPN
10/5/19 Iowa Michigan 12:00 PM FOX
10/5/19 Oklahoma State Texas Tech 12:00 PM FS1
10/5/19 South Florida UConn 12:00 PM
10/5/19 TCU Iowa State 12:00 PM ESPN2
10/5/19 Maryland Rutgers 12:00 PM BTN
10/5/19 Tulane Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
10/5/19 Boston College Louisville 12:30 PM ACCNX
10/5/19 Eastern Michigan Central Michigan 3:00 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Auburn Florida 3:30 PM CBS
10/5/19 Bowling Green Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC
10/5/19 Texas West Virginia 3:30 PM ABC
10/5/19 Ohio Buffalo 3:30 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Western Michigan Toledo 3:30 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Ball State Northern Illinois 3:30 PM ESPN3
10/5/19 Arkansas State Georgia State 3:30 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Baylor Kansas State 3:30 PM ESPN2
10/5/19 Illinois Minnesota 3:30 PM BTN
10/5/19 Air Force Navy 3:30 PM CBSSN
10/5/19 Virginia Tech Miami 3:30 PM ESPN
10/5/19 Marshall Middle Tennessee 3:30 PM
10/5/19 Memphis UL Monroe 3:45 PM ESPNU
10/5/19 Northwestern Nebraska 4:00 PM
10/5/19 North Carolina Georgia Tech 4:00 PM ACCN
10/5/19 Troy Missouri 4:00 PM SECN
10/5/19 Arizona Colorado 4:30 PM
10/5/19 Western Kentucky Old Dominion 6:00 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Georgia Tennessee 7:00 PM ESPN
10/5/19 Rice UAB 7:00 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 UMass Florida International 7:00 PM ESPN3
10/5/19 Michigan State Ohio State 7:30 PM ABC
10/5/19 Tulsa SMU 7:30 PM ESPNU
10/5/19 Vanderbilt Ole Miss 7:30 PM SECN
10/5/19 California Oregon 8:00 PM FOX
10/5/19 Pittsburgh Duke 8:00 PM ACCN
10/5/19 Liberty New Mexico State 8:00 PM
10/5/19 UTSA UTEP 8:00 PM ESPN+
10/5/19 Oregon State UCLA 9:00 PM
10/5/19 San Diego State Colorado State 10:00 PM ESPN2
10/5/19 Washington Stanford 10:30 PM ESPN
10/5/19 Boise State UNLV 10:30 PM CBSSN

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after Florida

The offense needs to get on track, but is the defense actually improving despite a struggling defensive line?

Offense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Joining 4th down conversion percentage in the cellar are Total Offense and First Downs Offense. There’s a line at the door, too.

Fell out of the Top 30: Tackles for Loss Allowed and Red Zone Offense.

This thing looks like my lawn: not a lick of green and a single spark away from catching on fire.

Defense

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Um . . . nothing.

Fell into the Bottom 30: Team Tackles for Loss joins 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense.

Fell out of the Top 30: Red Zone Defense.

Really, considering that the Vols can’t generate a pass rush or push the line back with just its defensive line, this isn’t terrible. Pass defense is pretty good, assuming that it’s not just because everybody’s too busy running the ball. But even the rushing defense appears to be improving.

Special Teams

Still the strength of the team.

Turnovers and Penalties

Penalties are not terrible from a quantity standpoint, but are significantly worse from a number-of-yards perspective. The turnovers categories appear to be very volatile from game to game, so they just need to do it every time.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: After the bye

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

The Vols were off this week, and the results from prior opponents didn’t really have much impact one way or the other. But results from future opponents did rearrange things a bit and improve expectations every so slightly.

With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 3.25, up a teensy bit from last week.

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25

Details: Alabama and Georgia both remain at 5%. After that, I have three groups: Missouri and South Carolina are at 25%, Mississippi State and Kentucky are at 35%, and Vanderbilt and UAB are at 50%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 1-3 (0-1), 4th in the SEC East

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 2-2 (0-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

Like the Vols, the Panthers were off this week.

BYU Cougars

Current record: 2-3 (0-0)

Toledo returned an interception 40 yards to the 2-yard line in the last minute of the game to get the go-ahead touchdown.

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 2-3 (1-0), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East

Nothing to see here.

The Vols’ future opponents

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 4-0 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East

The Bulldogs were also off this week.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 3-2 (1-1), 4th in the SEC West

These Bulldogs, however, were not off. Well, actually, they were “off,” but in a different sense of the word, meaning they got absolutely clobbered by the Auburn Tigers. Even those 23 points are misleading.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 5-0 (2-0), 1st in the SEC West

The Tide defense gave up 476 yards, and yet the team still won by 28 points. Sigh.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 2-3 (1-2), 4th in the SEC East

I think the take on South Carolina so far is exactly what we said in our magazine prior to the season: They are actually good, but their brutal schedule obscures it. They basically throttled Kentucky’s offense.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 3-1 (0-1), 4th in C-USA West

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 2-3 (0-3), 7th in the SEC East

With three losses in a row now (and only two wins — against Toledo and Eastern Michigan), these guys are looking like they really miss Benny Snell and Josh Allen, not to mention injured quarterback Terry Wilson. The offense could do nothing against the Gamecocks. They still look better than the current version of the Vols, though.

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 3-1 (1-0), 2nd in the SEC East

Off this week.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 1-3 (0-2), 6th in the SEC East

Not much to be said about that.

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Coordinator churn and the Tennessee Volunteers

Coordinator continuity was a hallmark of the Phillip Fulmer Era of Tennessee football from 1992-2008. John Chavis served as Fulmer’s defensive coordinator from 1995 right through to the bitter end in 2008. The offensive coordinator position was also mostly stable with David Cutcliffe serving in that role from 1993-1998 and then again from 2006-2007. In the interim, Randy Sanders was the only other OC.

Until the 2008 season, Fulmer had a grand total of one defensive coordinator and two offensive coordinators over the course of 16 seasons. Whether things started going south for Fulmer as early as 2001 or whether the beginning of the end came later, it’s an indisputable fact that his team won the SEC East as late as 2007. Whatever success you give him credit for, that success occurred alongside an impressive record of coordinator continuity.

Ironically, Fulmer was done in by a failure in continuity. When Cutcliffe left the second time, Fulmer made a fateful decision. At a time folks were turning up the heat and setting the timer, Fulmer hired Dave Clawson to be his new offensive coordinator. It was either widely known or merely rumored at the time that the Clawfense took more than a single season to install, and it turns out, Fulmer didn’t have that much time.

Fulmer’s firing ushered in an unprecedented wave of head coach and coordinator churn that has, so far, lasted over a decade. Here’s the list of head coaches and coordinators that the Vols have cycled through since 2008.

That’s five head coaches, six offensive coordinators (one of them non-consecutive), and eight defensive coordinators over the course of 12 seasons. There was complete continuity among the head coach and both coordinators in only two of the past 12 years.

But is coordinator churn a symptom or a cause? Is it a necessary response to failure on the field or is it perhaps itself contributing to that failure?

Here’s a look at year-by-year churn and the total offense and defense, along with season records:

The first thing to note is that the Clawfense was indeed terrible in 2008. Jim Chaney’s first year as OC for Lane Kiffin’s 2009 team was already significantly better. If you look only at Chaney’s total offense for his first four seasons on Rocky Top, it will look like it took him four years to get rolling. But Dooley and his staff and stuff arrived in Chaney’s second year, and in 2011, just as they were beginning to hit their stride, Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray both got hurt and missed significant time. In his final year with Dooley in 2012, Chaney put up a whopping 475.9 yards per game, which is the best it’s been these past 12 years.

Under Dooley, the defense got worse in Justin Wilcox’s first season and then better in his second. But then Wilcox left, and Dooley was faced with a decision similar to that faced by Fulmer in 2008. He had to hire a new coordinator in a make-or-break year. He chose Sal Sunseri, whose defense gave up an astounding 471.33 yards per game in 2012. Dooley was fired because his first-year defensive coordinator was as bad as his four-year offensive coordinator was good.

Enter Butch Jones and his new staff, offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian and defensive coordinator John Jancek. With total coaching turnover, the offense suffered and the defense, although improved from the Sunseri debacle, was still terrible. When all three of those guys remained at their respective positions the following year in 2014, everything improved. The offense went from 353.3 yards per game to 370.5, and the defense went from allowing 418.4 yards per game to allowing only 364.6. The team went from 5-7 each of the past three seasons to 7-6.

The 2015 season is a bit of an anomaly, as Jones and Jancek were both back as head coach and DC, but Mike DeBord replaced Mike Bajakian as OC. DeBord appears to be the only new coordinator hire for an existing head coach that actually made things better in his first season, taking the total yards per game from 370.5 in 2014 under Bajakian to 422.3 in 2015.

The following year, though, Jones replaced defensive coordinator John Jancek with the widely-heralded Bob Shoop, and the Tennessee defense went from giving up 362 yards per game to allowing 449.2. He actually got only marginally better in his second year, and Jones then compounded the problem by making a similar mistake in replacing DeBord with Larry Scott. Under Scott, the offense went from 443.7 yards per game to 291.1. And that was the end of Butch Jones.

The entire coaching roster churned again in 2018 when Fulmer hired Jeremy Pruitt as head coach and Pruitt hired Tyson Helton as offensive coordinator and Kevin Sherrer as defensive coordinator. Only a single season later, though, Tennessee already has two new coordinators in Jim Chaney and Derrick Ansley. Only time will tell whether there will be a first-year dropoff due to yet another season of coordinator churn.

Tennessee’s struggle over the past 12 years has coincided with unprecedented levels of coaching turnover, especially in the coordinator positions. The data suggests that this churn isn’t a symptom of the problem, but perhaps the problem itself. There is a transitional period not only for new head coaches, but for new coordinators as well, and they don’t seem to get honeymoons.

It is true that a major college football program can’t keep an under-performing staff just for the sake of continuity, but it’s also true that a certain level of continuity is necessary to an informed decision about that staff.

If Fulmer is relatively certain that he has the right guys in place, his most important job is to foster the same continuity he achieved during his head-coaching tenure. To do that, he’s going to need to commit to keeping all of them and sticking with them for a certain number of years, even when things go bad for a spell.

College Football TV Schedule: Week 5

The Vols are off this week, but there are other games of interest to Tennessee fans. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them. First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Navy Memphis 8:00 PM ESPN Live It's football

Is it me, or are Thursday nights not as appealing this year? I’m actually all for that, as I think college football should be played on Saturdays.

Friday, September 27, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Duke Virginia Tech 7:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop It's football
Penn State Maryland 8:00 PM FS1 Channel Hop Top 15 team

That Penn State-Maryland game could get interesting.

Gameday, September 28, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
Texas Tech Oklahoma 12:00 PM FOX Channel Hop Why not?
Texas A&M Arkansas 12:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop Former coaching candidate
Northern Illinois Vanderbilt 12:00 PM SECN Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
AFTERNOON
Clemson North Carolina 3:30 PM ABC Channel Hop Closer than expected?
Ole Miss Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
Virginia Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
Towson Florida 4:00 PM SECN Channel Hop Former Vols opponent
USC Washington 3:30 PM FOX Channel Hop Top 20 matchup
EVENING
Mississippi State Auburn 7:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop/DVR Future Vols opponent
Kentucky South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN Channel Hop/DVR Future Vols opponents

Make sure your remote has fresh batteries, as this day was made for channel-hopping. There aren’t really any can’t-miss games, but there are plenty of interesting ones. The best time-slot is prime-time, as all-important Mississippi State is in action against Auburn at 7:00 on ESPN and future Vols opponents Kentucky and South Carolina face off against each other at 7:30 on the SEC Network.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
9/26/19 Navy Memphis 8:00 PM ESPN
9/27/19 Duke Virginia Tech 7:00 PM ESPN
9/27/19 Penn State Maryland 8:00 PM FS1
9/27/19 San Jose State Air Force 8:00 PM CBSSN
9/27/19 Arizona State California 10:30 PM ESPN
9/28/19 Texas Tech Oklahoma 12:00 PM FOX
9/28/19 Northwestern Wisconsin 12:00 PM ABC
9/28/19 Middle Tennessee Iowa 12:00 PM ESPN2
9/28/19 Rutgers Michigan 12:00 PM BTN
9/28/19 Texas A&M Arkansas 12:00 PM ESPN
9/28/19 Holy Cross Syracuse 12:00 PM ACCN
9/28/19 Northern Illinois Vanderbilt 12:00 PM SECN
9/28/19 Kansas TCU 12:00 PM FS1
9/28/19 BYU Toledo 12:00 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 Buffalo Miami (OH) 12:00 PM ESPNU
9/28/19 Central Michigan Western Michigan 12:00 PM CBSSN
9/28/19 Delaware Pittsburgh 12:30 PM ACCNX
9/28/19 Clemson North Carolina 3:30 PM ABC
9/28/19 Ole Miss Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
9/28/19 Virginia Notre Dame 3:30 PM NBC
9/28/19 USC Washington 3:30 PM FOX
9/28/19 Indiana Michigan State 3:30 PM BTN
9/28/19 Florida Atlantic Charlotte 3:30 PM NFL
9/28/19 Georgia Tech Temple 3:30 PM CBSSN
9/28/19 Wake Forest Boston College 3:30 PM ACCN
9/28/19 Iowa State Baylor 3:30 PM ESPN
9/28/19 Minnesota Purdue 3:30 PM ESPN2
9/28/19 Coastal Carolina Appalachian State 3:30 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 Akron UMass 3:30 PM
9/28/19 Towson Florida 4:00 PM SECN
9/28/19 SMU South Florida 4:00 PM ESPNU
9/28/19 Cincinnati Marshall 5:00 PM
9/28/19 New Mexico Liberty 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 East Carolina Old Dominion 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 Arkansas State Troy 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 Louisiana Georgia Southern 6:00 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 Mississippi State Auburn 7:00 PM ESPN
9/28/19 UConn UCF 7:00 PM ESPN2
9/28/19 Kansas State Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 South Alabama UL Monroe 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 Nicholls Texas State 7:00 PM ESPN3
9/28/19 UTEP Southern Mississippi 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 UAB Western Kentucky 7:00 PM ESPN+
9/28/19 Louisiana Tech Rice 7:00 PM ESPN3
9/28/19 Stanford Oregon State 7:00 PM PAC12
9/28/19 Ohio State Nebraska 7:30 PM ABC
9/28/19 NC State Florida State 7:30 PM ACCN
9/28/19 Kentucky South Carolina 7:30 PM SECN
9/28/19 Colorado State Utah State 7:30 PM CBSSN
9/28/19 UNLV Wyoming 8:00 PM ESPNU
9/28/19 Fresno State New Mexico State 8:00 PM
9/28/19 Houston North Texas 8:00 PM
9/28/19 Washington State Utah 10:00 PM FS1
9/28/19 UCLA Arizona 10:30 PM ESPN
9/28/19 Hawai'i Nevada 10:30 PM ESPN2

Misery Loves Company, or Why Tennessee Could Still Land Many of its Top Targets

If you’re reading this, you’re well aware of the disaster that has been the start of Tennessee’s season.  At 1-3 with a historic loss to Georgia State, a blown home game against BYU, and (yet another) loss to Florida – this time in blowout fashion – it would be difficult to have envisioned a worse way for the 2019 season to begin.  At the same time, it’s easy to wonder what this start (and forecasted end) to the season will do to Tennessee’s 2020 recruiting class.  What was once a dream of a class that could end up as high as the Top 5 if things broke right now has the looks of one that the staff will have to scratch and claw in order to keep in the Top 15-20.

Job #1 of course is to hold onto Tennessee’s current commitments, a group of (currently) 14 prospects that ranks #15 nationally, #7 in the SEC, and #3 in the SEC East (behind only UGA and then barely UF) in terms of average stars.  Particularly given the struggles of Jarrett Guarantano and the lack of anything resembling a future “sure thing” behind him, keeping QB Harrison Bailey in the class is paramount.  But he’s not the only one, as the rest of the class contains really, really good players as evidenced by the disparity between these rankings and those that consider quantity (where the Vols rank #23 nationally).  So making sure these guys are 100% bought in is the first step. 

From there, there is one thing has definitively changed since the salad days of just a month or so ago when Vol fans had dreams of a breakthrough season and saw their team deep in the mix with the elite of the elite among high school prospects. Landing guys like WR Arik Gilbert; TE Darnell Washington; LB Noah Sewell; WRs Rakim Jarrett, Thaiu Jones Bell and Arian Smith; and OL Marcus Dumervil – let alone more than one of them(!) – has become almost impossible.  If you’re Tennessee in 2019 – not Tennessee in 1999 or even 2009 – you need to have more than bigtime recruiters like Brian Nidermeyer and Tee Martin to beat out the likes of Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia for prospects like that.  You need to be showing progress on the field in terms of wins and losses.  Those recruiting dynamos can get you in the door and even get you unofficial and official visits from elite players, but in order to actually get their signatures when their alternatives are playing for titles you have to at least show that that kind of winning is on the horizon.  And that’s incredibly tough to sell right now.

But here’s the sunny side: For quite a few of Tennessee’s top targets – not the 5-stars but still guys the Vols staff would have LOVED to have gotten commitments from even before this disastrous season started – their other top schools are also having very, very bad seasons.  To wit:

4-star DT Omari Thomas is thought to have Ole Miss at the top of his list along with Tennessee.  Texas A&M is also in the mix and Alabama could be a factor should they choose to be, but the Black Bears seem like the main competition right now.  And Ole Miss is currently 2-2 – with a loss to regional G5 rival Memphis to boot – with realistically only 2-3 potential wins left (Mississippi State, Vandy, and New Mexico State).   Not a very popular choice with Ole Miss fans to begin with, and with a reasonable buyout, Matt Luke seems to be in a very precarious situation.

4-star LB Bryson Eason is down to Tennessee and Arkansas.  The Hogs currently sit at 2-2, fresh off a home loss to San Jose State(!), and while theoretically they have 1-2 potential wins on their schedule (Mississippi State and Western Kentucky) Head Coach Chad Morris hasn’t beaten an FBS foe while at Arkansas.  After going 2-10 and 0-8 in the SEC in his first season, to say Morris’s tenure in Fayetteville looks far less than promising would be an understatement.

4-stars OLB Reggie Grimes and LB/RB Len’neth Whitehead are two players for whom the Vols are battling South Carolina.  And the Cocks are off to a brutal 1-3 – with now 6 consecutive losses to FBS schools – in Will Muschamp’s 4th season.  They’ve got at best 4 tossup games left against Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and App State.  As bad as things seem in Knoxville right now they are as bad or worse in Columbia as Cock fans expected much more this deep into Muschamp’s tenure.  If he’s not already in danger of losing his job then it seems certain that Muschamp will enter his fifth season on a very hot seat.

OLB Sa’vell Smalls is a 5-star player from the West Coast who, at least before the season, appeared to have the Vols and FSU at the top of his list and seemed like the most likely of 5-star pulls for Tennessee.  With FSU sitting at a record of 2-2 that includes an embarrassing escape against Louisiana Monroe they are no better off than Tennessee is in terms of the season outlook.  The instate Washington Huskies look like a real player here as well, but Smalls has certainly expressed a willingness to leave the state/region as well as a keen interest in Coach Jeremy Pruitt’s reputation on defense, and nether of those should be discounted.  If there’s one 5-star that Niedermeyer should be focused on it’s probably Smalls.

Then there are instate stud Defensive Linemen Tyler Baron and Jay Hardy, two players for whom the Vols are presumed to be big leaders despite the horrific start to the season.  Nailing those two down is absolutely imperative and at least right now still seems likely barring a worst-case kind of finish. 

If someone told Coach Pruitt right now that he could be assured to sign the current commitment list, Baron and Hardy, and then Thomas, Eason, Whitehead, Grimes, and Smalls, one can be 100% sure he’d take that deal before you could even finish the sentence.  Whether he and his staff can make that happen remains to be seen.  However, if they could manage to do that and then finish out the class from the list below* (the majority of which are 4-stars prospects) – let alone convince one or more of the aforementioned 5-stars to sign up – that would be huge for the future of the program.  Even a casual fan knows that the best players on the team are freshman, sophomores, and the JUCOs that Pruitt recruited.  It is of utmost importance that the 2020 class further improve the overall talent in the program.

DL Octavius Oxendine

DL Jasheen Davis

DL Jacolbe Cowan

DL Desmond Evans

LB Kaden Johnson

LB Martavis French

LB Jemari Littlejohn

DB Kendall Dennis

DB Joel Williams

DB Mike Harris

DB Javier Morton

WR Dazalin Worsham

WR Kentron Poitier

RB Michael Drennen

RB Marvin Scott

RB Talaun Patton

OL Chris Morris

OL Tariq Stewart

*List does not assume any head/assistant coaching changes anywhere, including at the struggling programs mentioned above, which would presumably add other prospects to the list

While there is much in terms of opportunity lost due to the Vols poor start to the season – and the ability to add more truly no-brainer elite talent is at the top of that list – there is still a real chance to add high priority players due to similar circumstances at rival schools.  And while this is not a column in which we’ll be making the case for Tennessee to stand by Pruitt regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, there is no question that stability in the form of a coach staying on for his 3rd season and beyond – missing over the last eleven years – would be ideal.  Obviously the best case scenario is for the Vols to turn things around and salvage the rest of the season, especially while playing tons of young players.  That would go a long way towards righting the recruiting ship for this class.  However, given what’s happening elsewhere there is still a path for Tennessee to end up signing a class that helps the program take a step forward, even if it’s not as big of a step as was once thought possible.

The Sins of Recruiting Return

One of the most popular things I ever wrote in eight years at Rocky Top Talk has an unfortunate headline in hindsight: What’s Wrong With Tennessee Football Has Nothing To Do With Derek Dooley.

We published it in 2011 after the Vols lost 14-3 to #9 South Carolina in Justin Worley’s first start, an effort to look at the big picture in the midst of what felt like a lost season. Tennessee lit the flames of expectation that year with a win over Cincinnati, then lost Justin Hunter the next week and Tyler Bray two games later. As a result, the Vols lost by 31 to #1 LSU, 31 to #2 Alabama, then failed to score a touchdown against the Gamecocks.

Dooley, of course, eventually became part of what was wrong with Tennessee football. The Vols lost at #8 Arkansas by 42, beat Vanderbilt in Bray’s return, then infamously lost to Kentucky’s WR/QB. Dooley hired Sal Sunseri to run his defense, and that was that.

But the truth of Tennessee’s struggles up to that point remained: a three-year recruiting failure in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The 2007 class was ranked third and universally praised. The 2008 class was a disaster from the word go, ranked 35th with Fulmer still at the helm. And Lane Kiffin’s 2009 class lost half of its signees by the time I wrote that story in October 2011. From 2007-09 Tennessee signed 31 blue chip players (four or five-stars). One was Eric Berry. But only two others became long-term starters.

So that was the argument: Tennessee is losing games because the other teams have better players.

If long-term starters is still the benchmark, then what Jeremy Pruitt is working with isn’t exactly the same situation, or as easy to rationalize. Butch Jones’ 2016 class – the guys who should be seniors this year – included 10 blue chips in a class of 23 (43.5%). Seven of those guys became/are consistent starters, including Nigel Warrior, Jarrett Guarantano, Marquez Callaway, and Daniel Bituli on this year’s team. Add in Jonathan Kongbo, Alexis Johnson, and some starting duties for Ryan Johnson. The Vols lost only Marquill Osborne to transfer.

One of the biggest problems Pruitt faces right now is the 2017 class. Signed in the fading light of the Butch Jones era, Tennessee landed only five blue chip players in a class of 28 (17.9%). The two highest-rated signees are Trey Smith and Ty Chandler. But the other three blue chips – Maleik Gray, Eric Crosby, and Will Ignont – have transferred, retired from football, and failed to make the travel squad to Florida.

A significant percentage of what Tennessee is trying to get done right now is with three-star players from this class: LaTrell Bumphus, Matthew Butler, Kivon Bennett, Theo Jackson, Riley Locklear, K’Rojhn Calbert, Josh Palmer, Shawn Shamburger (and Brent Cimaglia!).

Pruitt’s quick turnaround 2018 class – the first to wrestle with the early signing period – landed eight blue chips in a class of 22 (36.4%). The highest-rated signee was J.J. Peterson, who remains a mystery. But the other seven guys are all already starters or would be if they were healthy: Alontae Taylor, Greg Emerson, Bryce Thompson, Dominick Wood-Anderson, Jordan Allen, Emmitt Gooden, and Jerome Carvin.

And Pruitt is already giving significant snaps to his three highest-rated signees from 2019 – Darnell Wright, Wanya Morris, Henry To’o To’o – plus Eric Gray.

Current recruiting is the very best reason to hope in Pruitt. The 2019 class had a dozen blue chips in a class of 22 (54.5%), the best ratio since Fulmer in 2005. The 2020 commitment list includes seven blue chips with 14 on the board (including a two-star long snapper). This is championship-level recruiting.

The Vols, of course, also have to develop that talent. Butch Jones recruited at a championship level in 2014 and 2015 and came close in 2016, but we all know that story. The ratios are already better with Pruitt, but right now the Vols are facing a significant hole from the class of 2017. And no matter what, the Vols have more talent than Georgia State and BYU.

At the end of the recruiting decade, I pulled Tennessee’s highest-rated signee at every position since the class of 2010 via 247’s database:

QBJarrett Guarantano
RBJalen Hurd
WRDa’Rick Rogers
WRJustin Hunter
WRJosh Malone
TEDaniel Helm
OTDarnell Wright
OGTrey Smith
CJames Stone
OGJackson Lampley
OTWanya Morris
DLKyle Phillips
DLKahlil McKenzie
DLShy Tuttle
LBJ.J. Peterson
LBHenry To’oTo’o
LBQuavaris Crouch
CBAlontae Taylor
CBMarquill Osborne
NBByron Moore
FSNigel Warrior
SSTodd Kelly Jr.

You’ll notice a couple of things here. First of all, nine of these guys are on the current roster, including three starting offensive linemen and all three linebackers. Kudos to Pruitt’s staff for recruiting so well at those positions.

Of the remaining 13 guys, the same number (five) left the program as made it from Tennessee to the NFL (Hunter, Malone, Stone, Phillips, Tuttle). The Vols’ biggest NFL talents of this decade – Cordarrelle Patterson, Derek Barnett, and Alvin Kamara – fall just outside the highest rated signees at their positions.

So, as with all things, you really have to wait and see. The current team struggles, in part, from recruiting at the end of Butch Jones’ tenure and the nature of a coaching change with an early signing period. The brightest spots for Pruitt are recruiting wins, including plenty of freshmen on this year’s team. The nearly lost blue chip class of 2017 hurts right now, but it can’t be all of Tennessee’s problems. You have to hope that all of this gets better at the same time: Pruitt’s coaching and development skills alongside really strong recruiting classes, with both parts of that equation clearly still finding their way.