“That’s the same team that lost to Georgia State,” is the rhetoric today from parts of Clemson, Columbus, Baton Rouge, and anywhere else a team fancies itself the best in the land.
It’s not, of course. You’re never really the same team in late October as you were in late August.
It is, unfortunately, the same season. Tennessee is still 2-5, and still needs a 4-1 finish to earn the bowl eligibility everyone assumed two months ago. But the Vols we saw in Tuscaloosa played way, way better than those same preseason assumptions allowed for.
They did it without Brian Maurer for most of the night, who left each of the last two games with only seven passing attempts for concussion protocol. They did it without Henry To’o To’o in the first half and Daniel Bituli for the second, a razor-thin position to begin with that somehow still held up. And they did it after catching the wrong end of several breaks from the officiating crew, including a pair of potentially game-changing calls in a matter of minutes.
And sure, we need a few words on Jarrett Guarantano. Last week the Vols play-called as if they were trying to win in spite of him, but Guarantano did go 6-of-7 for 106 yards, including a 41 yard bomb to Ramel Keyton that led to three points and the final strike to Tyler Byrd. They beat Mississippi State, in part, because of him doing what he needed to do on the few plays they asked him to do it.
The numbers were worse this time – 7-of-16 for 55 yards – but Guarantano did convert three third downs through the air in the second half, the first leading to three points and the other two on that 14-play drive.
It’s the end of that sequence that’s driving the outside conversation, and a fair percentage of what Tennessee fans are talking about too. Let’s consider what would’ve been true even if Guarantano didn’t fumble or actually scored.
Tennessee’s coaching staff has twice demonstrated their trust with Guarantano throwing the ball is already low. Whatever happened on that snap, it didn’t increase that level of trust. The other thing I believed to be true was, if Maurer couldn’t play, those coaches still believed JG gave Tennessee the best chance to win, and the feel-good story this season hopes to become is in need of those, now.
If Maurer isn’t an option, what do you do against South Carolina? It’s the latest of a series of difficult questions for Jeremy Pruitt. Answering difficult questions is in the job description, of course, but these are a different set of questions than we thought we’d be asking at this point in year two.
However, the questions we thought we’d be asking are getting answered in the affirmative more every week. Yesterday was one of the best performances from Tennessee’s offensive line in a long time, again despite obvious trust issues in the passing game. And Tennessee’s defensive line again made a difference: Alabama got just 4.1 yards per carry, the second-best performance by a Tennessee defense in this game in the last eight years.
Watching the way the Vols competed, there’s a hope we’re done with the +34.5 lines. Before Tua went out, the Vols came to play. Without him (but with Alabama’s army of five stars still intact), the Vols were competitive to the end.
It feels like we might be entering territory the Vols often found themselves in during basketball seasons of the past: capable of beating anyone, capable of being beat by anyone. It’s an exciting place to be! It can also be frustrating, especially with uncertainty at quarterback.
Tennessee has grown far beyond the team they were against Georgia State. In the big picture, the Vols are making progress in all the right places, restoring hope in this coaching staff and excitement for the future. In the short term, they may not like their options at quarterback, and have to manage a number of emotions with South Carolina coming to town in what’s become one of the biggest games of the year. Who’s going to get more questions about officiating this week between Pruitt and Muschamp? Who will be better at getting their team to respond from that kind of disappointment?
Everything is on the table for this team. That includes bowl eligibility and the hope such a run would inspire. And it includes more frustrating defeats behind more uncertainty at quarterback, enough to cast a shadow on this season’s overall progress. Especially in this season, we should’ve learned by now not to set expectations in stone for how it’s going to go the rest of the way. How’s it going to go this week?
As always, the Vols will be interesting in pursuit of the answer.
It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols traveling to Tuscaloosa to take on the No. 1-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Tennessee-Alabama game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.
When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?
Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:
Live stats (presumably updated by the time kickoff rolls around)
The best games for Vols fans to watch today
The Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans doesn’t just include watching the Vols take on the Bulldogs. Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Vols fans:
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON
#9 Florida
South Carolina
12:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Former/future Vols opponents
AFTERNOON
#12 Oregon
#25 Washington
3:30 PM
ABC
Channel hop 2
Top 25 matchup
#22 Missouri
Vanderbilt
4:00 PM
SECN
DVR/Channel hop 1A
Future Vols opponents
Kentucky
#10 Georgia
6:00 PM
ESPN
DVR/Channel hop 1B
Former/future Vols opponents
#17 Arizona State
#13 Utah
6:00 PM
PAC12
Channel hop 3
Top 25 matchup
EVENING
#16 Michigan
#7 Penn State
7:30 PM
ABC
Live, until Vols
Top 25 matchup
Tennessee
#1 Alabama
9:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Go Vols!
And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:
Date
Away
Home
Time
TV
10/16/19
South Alabama
Troy
8:00 PM
ESPN2
10/17/19
Louisiana
Arkansas State
7:30 PM
ESPNU
10/17/19
UCLA
Stanford
9:00 PM
ESPN
10/18/19
Marshall
Florida Atlantic
6:30 PM
CBSSN
10/18/19
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
7:00 PM
ESPN
10/18/19
#4 Ohio State
Northwestern
8:30 PM
FS1
10/18/19
UNLV
Fresno State
10:00 PM
10/19/19
#3 Clemson
Louisville
12:00 PM
ABC
10/19/19
West Virginia
#5 Oklahoma
12:00 PM
FOX
10/19/19
#6 Wisconsin
Illinois
12:00 PM
BTN
10/19/19
#9 Florida
South Carolina
12:00 PM
ESPN
10/19/19
#11 Auburn
Arkansas
12:00 PM
SECN
10/19/19
Purdue
#23 Iowa
12:00 PM
ESPN2
10/19/19
Houston
UConn
12:00 PM
ESPNU
10/19/19
Kent State
Ohio
12:00 PM
CBSSN
10/19/19
Georgia Tech
Miami
12:00 PM
ACCN
10/19/19
NC State
Boston College
12:00 PM
ACCNX
10/19/19
Iowa State
Texas Tech
12:00 PM
FS1
10/19/19
Toledo
Ball State
2:00 PM
ESPN+
10/19/19
Central Michigan
Bowling Green
2:00 PM
ESPN3
10/19/19
Northern Illinois
Miami (OH)
2:30 PM
ESPN+
10/19/19
TCU
Kansas State
2:30 PM
10/19/19
Oregon State
California
2:30 PM
PAC12
10/19/19
New Mexico
Wyoming
3:00 PM
10/19/19
Coastal Carolina
Georgia Southern
3:00 PM
ESPN3
10/19/19
#2 LSU
Mississippi State
3:30 PM
CBS
10/19/19
#12 Oregon
#25 Washington
3:30 PM
ABC
10/19/19
Temple
#19 SMU
3:30 PM
ESPN2
10/19/19
#20 Minnesota
Rutgers
3:30 PM
BTN
10/19/19
Tulsa
#21 Cincinnati
3:30 PM
ESPNU
10/19/19
UL Monroe
#24 Appalachian State
3:30 PM
ESPN+
10/19/19
South Florida
Navy
3:30 PM
CBSSN
10/19/19
Buffalo
Akron
3:30 PM
ESPN3
10/19/19
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
3:30 PM
ACCNX
10/19/19
Southern Mississippi
Louisiana Tech
3:30 PM
NFL
10/19/19
Indiana
Maryland
3:30 PM
BTN
10/19/19
Duke
Virginia
3:30 PM
ACCN
10/19/19
#18 Baylor
Oklahoma State
4:00 PM
FOX
10/19/19
#22 Missouri
Vanderbilt
4:00 PM
SECN
10/19/19
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
4:00 PM
10/19/19
Old Dominion
UAB
4:00 PM
ESPN+
10/19/19
Charlotte
Western Kentucky
4:00 PM
ESPN+
10/19/19
Kentucky
#10 Georgia
6:00 PM
ESPN
10/19/19
#17 Arizona State
#13 Utah
6:00 PM
PAC12
10/19/19
Rice
UTSA
6:00 PM
ESPN3
10/19/19
Maine
Liberty
6:00 PM
ESPN+
10/19/19
Kansas
#15 Texas
7:00 PM
LHN
10/19/19
East Carolina
UCF
7:00 PM
CBSSN
10/19/19
San Diego State
San Jose State
7:00 PM
10/19/19
Tulane
Memphis
7:00 PM
ESPN2
10/19/19
Western Michigan
Eastern Michigan
7:00 PM
ESPN+
10/19/19
Colorado
Washington State
7:00 PM
ESPNU
10/19/19
Army
Georgia State
7:00 PM
ESPN+
10/19/19
UTEP
Florida International
7:00 PM
ESPN+
10/19/19
#16 Michigan
#7 Penn State
7:30 PM
ABC
10/19/19
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
7:30 PM
SECN
10/19/19
Florida State
Wake Forest
7:30 PM
ACCN
10/19/19
Tennessee
#1 Alabama
9:00 PM
ESPN
10/19/19
Arizona
USC
9:30 PM
PAC12
10/19/19
#14 Boise State
BYU
10:15 PM
ESPN2
10/19/19
Nevada
Utah State
10:15 PM
ESPNU
10/19/19
Air Force
Hawai'i
11:00 PM
CBSSN
GRT games and contests
While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.
On the heels of the Mississippi State win, our community Expected Win Total stands at 4.82. As the name implies, we’re not expecting bowl eligibility yet, but the Vols are at least back in the conversation.
That particular point of progress isn’t likely to change in Tuscaloosa after dark, where the Vols are +34.5. But there’s a version of this where we come out of Saturday night feeling just as good (better?) about Tennessee’s chase for six wins.
Last year Alabama came to the Third Saturday in October looking like one of the best college football teams in the history of earth. Tennessee had more of a pulse than in 2017, when the Vols were dominated from start to finish, and also in 2016, when the #9 Vols were humiliated offensively. The 2018 Vols scored two second quarter touchdowns to make it 35-14, and were set to receive the second half kickoff. It ain’t much – and Bama punched it in just before halftime anyway – but against these guys, it was something. At 4.69 yards per play, you could at least entertain the notion of something good happening when the Vols snapped the ball.
This year, Alabama’s defense is certainly more vulnerable, though vulnerability is relative when your offense is averaging more than eight yards per play. But South Carolina (5.34 yards per play), Ole Miss (5.41), and Texas A&M (5.56) all had more success than we’re used to seeing teams of that caliber get against the Tide defense. I’m quite sure A&M has more talent than Tennessee right now, but South Carolina and Ole Miss are fair comparisons.
The 21 points Tennessee scored on Alabama last year were already the most in this rivalry (in regulation) for the Vols since…2001! You want Tennessee, especially if quarterbacked by Brian Maurer, to land enough punches to believe they can do the same against South Carolina, etc.
Of course, the other side of this coin is the other side of the ball, where progress this season would be holding Alabama to 41 points or less, or less than 6.5 yards per play. When you’re this kind of underdog, it’s hard to make covering the spread a success; I’m not sure we’re going to feel great about life if the Vols lose by 31. But this week feels more about maintaining the momentum established last Saturday. Maybe that comes via onside kicks and fourth down conversions – hey, maybe it’s an effective recruiting strategy for those young enough to pay attention after 9:00 PM ET – but the bigger picture is keeping this team not only together where it fell apart last November, but moving forward in the chase for six wins. The Vols came out of the last Third Saturday feeling like they’d done that, then followed it up with an almost-good-enough performance at South Carolina. Can we get a little more of the same this year?
It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.
Let’sa go!
Submit your answers to our three questions below.
Click the “Submit” button.
Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.
You can also listen along with the robo-transcript below and even change the speed if you like. Pardon the errors, as the bot understands neither southern accents nor football. Also, there’s no bumper music in this, so the first 14 seconds is just, like, space, man.
Joel: This is the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast, episode 1 59 and we are Joel Hollingsworth and Will Shelton, the Vols are coming off a twenty to ten upset of the Mississippi State Bulldogs last Saturday, and a bunch of guys made the pro football focus all SCC team of the week. I think it was a Trey Smith and Nigel Warrior or first team and Darrell Taylor was second team in Smith. I think actually got something like Coach Offensive Lineman of the Week or something like that. Basically, it was a good, good day for the guys. This week, though, the balls are heading straight for the teeth of a monster in Tuscaloosa, where they travel to Alabama to take on the Crimson Tide, who is again the number one team in the nation. But before we get to Alabama, Will, you wrote just after the Mississippi state game that it wasn't so much that that the Vols won the game, although they were a six and a half point underdog, but it was really more how they won. So can you talk a little bit about that for the folks that are listening, but missed that earlier in the week?
Will: Well, at least being in the stadium Saturday, it felt like a game. Tennessee was in control of pretty early. You know, it felt like a game. It was at least going to be competitive and compelling. You wondered if are you gonna get punished for throwing two interceptions in the endzone? Turns out not really. And then even when Brian Maurer goes down, there's obvious.
Joel: Upside down.
Will: Oh, yeah. Yeah. My wife, when that happened immediately goes. Someone find his mother. It's like it's it. Yeah. I mean it was it was a I'm amazed that he bounced right back up from it. I know that had to be a lot of adrenaline because I'm sure that things felt like a car crash.
Joel: Oh, no.
Will: Some.
Joel: Yeah. Because, I mean, it wasn't just that he landed on his head, it's he landed sort of not sort of the wrong direction. So he is neck head to bend before his momentum would actually finish him over the top. You know, that just didn't look at it. I don't like that.
Will: Yeah. I don't know if it would have outside of the concussion. I don't know if it would've been whiplash or whatever, but it didn't tickle to her. So but you know, even when all of that took place and we have the angst about are we going to throw Garran Tanno because of what he's done this year, it creates obvious anxiety when Tennessee has to get in passing situations. And yet you just because of the defense, I never really felt like it was a game that Tennessee didn't have control
Joel: No,
Will: Of.
Joel: No,
Will: And you could lose that
Joel: Wait,
Will: Way.
Joel: Wait.
Will: We saw that with BYU,
Joel: Are you
Will: Where
Joel: Aware
Will: That
Joel: That
Will: Was
Joel: Was
Will: Evident
Joel: Evident
Will: Early
Joel: Early
Will: On,
Joel: On?
Will: That Tennessee could control that game. But I just think so.
Joel: Oh,
Will: It's hard to say.
Joel: Wow.
Will: Wow, big upset. But six and a half is a it's a pretty solid upset.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Statistically speaking and all that, it didn't look like Mississippi State was a touchdown. Better than Tennessee at any point in that game. And we'll see. I'll be curious to see what Mississippi state has right now, because if I'm a bulldog fan. I'm grasping right now because you lose to Kansas State at home that over game was all kinds of bad and Auburn lost to Florida, who lost to LSU? So you can't tell yourself you just got obliterated by one of the two or three best teams in the country. Maybe one of the 10 best teams, but not one of the two or three best, which was on the table at the time. They did that at Mississippi State. And then to turn into this performance off a bye against Tennessee, who at the time was the only team in the country not to have an f.b.i.'s win. Not great. And the schedule coming up for them, not great. So I'll be curious to see how we feel about this Mississippi state win at the end of the season. But at the moment, yeah, you still don't you don't throw away a six and a half point underdog victory. But again, and we're playing the long game here now. That's been the case since it's been the case all year. But really since Georgia State, it's been the case. And long term, the most important things for Tennessee. Figure out your quarterback. Maybe we need way more data on Brian Maurer. And you got to get better on both lines. And I thought for the defense to do what they did and shutting down the leading rusher in the SCC and also to really bother him in the passing game with all those sacks and for the offense, when everybody in the world knew what was coming on the most vulnerable drive the first time all day, the field position wasn't in Tennessee's favor.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: I mean, they just dominated for four carries in a row. Everybody's talked about how great that was to see. So, again, we'll see how we feel about the win itself later on. It depends on if Tennessee can beat South Carolina, if they can keep a 6 and 6 season realistically on the table. But long term. Are these offensive linemen going to keep getting better? Are these defensive linemen? Because there's they've got some some well hyped kids coming in next year. But you're still talking about freshmen there. You need to develop what you have. And it was a good day for all those guys. So, yeah, I just thought the way it happened. You're already seeing a spark at quarterback with Mauer. Now you've got sustained great play on the offensive line, especially like Trey Smith, like you said, and guys making plays on the defensive line against what was the leading Russia in the SCC. So a really, really good day for the long term for Tennessee. I thought on top of the obvious, just relief and a little release in the short term, the way the season has gone.
Joel: Yeah, that the defensive line. It was a whole bunch of guys, too, it wasn't just one guy having a great game. It was like I was watching it like, hey, SEC from I don't know you. Who are you?
Will: It's
Joel: You know,
Will: Sprits.
Joel: It's
Will: Yeah,
Joel: It's like
Will: I had
Joel: There's
Will: To.
Joel: Another guy. I don't know.
Will: I had to pull out the program and look for I can't even remember who it is now. Maybe Darel Middleton is
Joel: Yeah,
Will: Somebody that was making plays or I was
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Like, who was that? So.
Joel: Yeah. Him and Benetton.
Will: Yeah.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Ja'quain Blakely was in there to
Joel: Wow.
Will: Make it. He didn't get a sack, but he made
Joel: Mm
Will: Some
Joel: Hmm.
Will: Nice things happen. I think it was my wife enjoyed that. He was. He had the belly hanging out.
Joel: Now, you
Will: That's.
Joel: See, she likes big bellies.
Will: Let's listen. I can testify to that. So it's David, haven't had a nice piece today or maybe yesterday about the game saying that when you look at those seven sacks, it wasn't necessarily great defensive line play. A lot of it was good coverage, which. Fine. Great. Awesome.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: You know, like whatever, those guys are finishing the job that a lot of those guys on the back end are doing. And it was nice to see that you mentioned the pro football focus grades, watching the game. It really
Joel: Really?
Will: Felt like Nigel Warrior was having a great game.
Joel: Yeah, yeah.
Will: And sometimes you feel that way
Joel: Way
Will: And then you go
Joel: Back.
Will: Back and especially with a guy in a secondary. You remember the plays he made, but you don't always remember the plays he gave up unless there, you know, sort of monumental kinds of plays. But I really. Warriors face such high expectations because of his dad. As long as he's been here and has failed to live up to what we built him up in our minds, probably unfairly as so there is a little bit of me when he was playing so well that thought, well, he's probably not playing as well as I'm hoping he is, but he really did,
Joel: Yeah.
Will: At least in this one game. So that was that was really encouraging to see.
Joel: Yeah. And then at the end of the game, you know, after. I think it was right after Mississippi State scored their touchdown to make it a little close. I said, OK, well, they're gonna have to pass now, you know, because you could tell that they were just playing with the lead and they were just wanting to sort of run out the clock and, you know, play it safe. And, you know, like you said, four straight runs. They were all successful. It's like, well, what do I know? Hey, you know, I'll take that. That was fun.
Will: Well, there's there's a whole separate conversation we said on the side, because we're not allowed to have this problem right now. But for everyone that wants to make the Will Muschamp comparison, which, by the way. Good. Good week to be will most champs. So it's not that it's not all bad, but
Joel: Maybe
Will: Everyone
Joel: The only week
Will: Cares.
Joel: That it's actually going to be Will Muschamp it.
Will: It's right. But when we're setting that, we're setting it to the side for now. But people will want to say, well, it's nice to win this way, because we lost the Georgia state and BYU and had beat anybody. And it was nice to beat Kentucky this way last year. But this isn't sustainable. You're going to have to be more aggressive. Most champion Florida. It's fun to win games 20 to 10 for a year. And then you start losing those games and everything's closer than it should be. And it's just no fun at all. So I appreciate that Pruitt at least said in the post-game, hey, we probably can't win every game this way because. That's correct. So there was at least a verbal acknowledgement that this kind of thing isn't going to get it done every Saturday and it will get old and frustrating as Tennessee gets better and we expect more from them. But man, it was it was exactly right. Their run pass ratio. All that stuff, it worked exactly the way they wanted it to.
Joel: So speaking of, hey, we're not going to be able to win every game like that. Pruitt joked I think he was joking about unveiling the Arkansas high school game plan of of always onside, kicking and never punting on fourth down. And, you know, the idea being that you're never going to let the other team actually have the ball. Right.
Will: Right.
Joel: And, you know, that's kind of funny. But, you know, Josh Ward mentioned on his podcast, looked on Vols that he thought that maybe it really wasn't all that bad of an idea. And when you start thinking about it, it's like, well, what is the downside? You know, it's just field position if you're unsuccessful, right. A failed onside kick gives the ball to the other team at midfield or better instead of at the twenty five and always going forward on fourth down. You know, that gives the ball to the other team right there instead of forty five yards away. So it's just field position and. But, but, but it might also work some of the time too, in which case you're extending a possession or maybe even stealing one. And what really is the value of an extra twenty five yards on kickoffs or forty five yards and a punt when the Alabama offense is going to score ninety five percent of the time anyway. So let them score quick and then you can get the ball back and eat more clock. So I'm all in that. That's what you know, I'm rooting for that. I know is not gonna happen, but I don't know. What do you think you wanted? You want to join me and Josh on this on this train?
Will: Well, it's really that is an old, you know, Madden video game kind of way of doing things. And I never I was never that guy playing those games, but I did. I thought about I guess there's still time to do this recording. And so on Wednesday I thought about Busted Out Madden and just trying it in a game. This just to get a feel for it. In my spare time to seek as I haven't you know, that's that's a sort of middle school Madden tactic. But
Joel: Was that does
Will: You.
Joel: That game actually have to a quarterback and three NFL first rounders? A wide receiver?
Will: I would have to take like the Bengals. Put them in the orange uniforms and go against the Patriots in the red uniforms and imagine the imagine imagine the fire. But, you know, the interesting thing about that to me would be obviously, since he did it and somehow won the game, that would be front page news. But you know what? If Tennessee does it and they only lose by like 20 when you're five touchdown underdog. It would be interesting to see how they chose to carry that forward. From that point on, Pruitt is more aggressive. Again, when you're following Butch Jones, it's hard to not seem more aggressive, but on fourth downs, more aggressive on onside kicks. Last year, we were the best, best looking, onside, kicking team all year. We just missed by inches several times. So, you know, they work on it. And to that stuff, I wonder what kind of message are we sending to the defense? But what kind of message is Alabama's offense going to send to the defense?
Joel: Yeah.
Will: On the other side of things.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: So that to me would be the only interesting thing about it is if it weren't just enough to convince you maybe to think about doing it against South Carolina, that, you know, that's where it could get off the rails, is you do it and somehow you're let's say you lose by 17 to Alabama. You know, said something where you can entertain the miraculous at the start of the fourth quarter. Something like that. Well, then you try next week against South Carolina and it failed spectacularly and you lose a game that you would have won otherwise, just playing it straight up. So, yeah. I don't. I mean, I don't think he's. I think if he was going to do that, he would not have said it loud.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: You know, you just do it. But it would it would at least be interesting at 9 0 7 or whatever time they're gonna kick this game off. It would it might keep a few more eyeballs in front
Joel: Yeah,
Will: Of it.
Joel: That's way past my bedtime. Thing is, I don't think that there's really any need to play keep away from oil must champ offense, though.
Will: I hope not. Yeah,
Joel: Yeah,
Will: That would be
Joel: I
Will: That would be
Joel: Know.
Will: Best.
Joel: All right. So I have this theory about what makes the Alabama passing game so good. I mean, this is one of the actually let me ask you this first. You've you've been watching these guys for a really long time. Is this the best Alabama offense that you've ever seen?
Will: Maybe I'm going to write this for Friday morning about's. We did a version of it last year. What is success against this team? What are the things you can do? And last year it was at least at the time of the Tennessee game. If they don't score a touchdown on the opening drive success. You know, like if they score less than thirty five in the first half. Success. That sort of thing. So I think it is. I think it's in the conversation. Sometimes I feel this way about some of the Kentucky basketball teams that have come rolling through Knoxville where you're like, OK. That one. But then if they lose in the Elite Eight, you can't really say that. You know, it's like last year's Alabama offense. I would put them on the on the list. I would put two right now in terms of like most dangerous quarterbacks that I have ever seen play against Tennessee. I would put two on a top five on that list right now. Like without hesitation. I mean, I'm talking about like the Danny Werfel list. I
Joel: Mm
Will: Think
Joel: Hmm.
Will: Two is two. It scares me more than Tebow ever did. Playing against Tennessee. So I think that quarterback portion of it is going to be there, whether Alabama wins the national championship or not. So, yeah, I think it's got the potential. Last year did, too. They just didn't finish it there at the end. But, you know, that's that kind of helps a little bit in a backhanded sort of way to say, well, we're going to get wrecked here. We're at least getting wrecked by maybe the best offense that Tennessee has ever faced. We talked about that when Tennessee played Marcus Mariota and Oregon Butch Jones first year of like, hey, this team might win the whole thing. And had opportunities, too. So, you know, we'll need to wait until the year is over to get that full answer. But I would say. Yeah, definitely in the conversation.
Joel: So I'm glad you mentioned Mariota because I think part of the problem is. I think when we played Oregon, there's just no way to simulate that speed, you know. And so everybody's faster and you're taking bad angles all game because you're just underestimating where they are going to be the entire time. And that's that that's what I was getting about getting that when whenever it's talking about the Alabama passing game, because I think that. The reason that they are so good is that I'm going to call it frictionless because in a passing game you generally have some friction between, you know, catching the ball and then running after the catch. So the guy either has to, you know, stop and catch or he has to adjust on the fly or maybe has to slow down or speed up just a little bit. But tooa and his receivers, they have zero friction at that point. Those guys are always hit right at full speed. And I think that the rest of the defense just doesn't. They're just not used to seeing that happen without any friction whatsoever. I know that's the goal for everybody, but it just seems like they've perfected it. So that's what I'm going out with with these receivers. They just it everything is so smooth and I hate them for it. So. Well.
Will: Well, I think Tennessee last year we saw a version of this in the second half of the West Virginia game right away where you had a quarterback and a wide receiver combo where that guy, like even above average coverage didn't matter. That guy could put it where it needed to be. The receivers were going to make the plays. And I'm sure that's incredibly frustrating for a defensive back to say. I mean, I was I was there. I was right with him step for step. And they made a long play anyway. There was a throw on Bama's opening drive last year where two like rolled out and threw it back across his body all the width of the field. And Jerrod Means is like a pindrop just boom right there. And even the Alabama fans in the stadium were just, you know, amazed that he made that throw. And it's just one of those like. I'm not sure what we're supposed to do yet. Like what else? What else can you do about something like that? So. Yeah, I guess I think too is already. He's already in that level of there's gonna be some stuff that happened Saturday where you just kinda have to shrug your shoulders and say, yep, yep. That's that's great. And let's just move on to the next play.
Joel: Hey, did you see Doug Dickey's comments? I think it was a Dance Hall of Fame ceremony or something, or he was talking about his idea to expand the playoff to. I don't know whether it was eight or 16 teams. I think it was 16. Do you happen to see those comments? I'm sorry.
Will: It did not see it.
Joel: Oh, OK. So I'm going to paraphrase here, but it because I only glance that I was an M.D. doing something else. But, you know, you hear a lot of arguments like this and how do you make it Orac and all this stuff? And there was some stuff about that. But the thing I thought was so interesting was his reason for it. And he said it's creating a rich get richer of a bigger problem of the rich getting richer, because right now there's basically eight teams with the 14 playoff. There's eight teams that have that are legitimately chasing it each year. And so they're getting all of the best guys. Those eight teams. But if you expand it to like 16 team playoff, then you have 30 teams that can go into someone who's living room and say, hey, you know, we're going to be in the playoff this year without being laughed out. So I just thought that was really interesting yet. Any thoughts off the cuff on that?
Will: I still think the very best model for this is eight teams with five automatic bids. If you win your conference, you're in. And in that model you make everybody's doing this anyway. Make them all play a conference championship game, which means if you win your division, you have a chance to win the national championship period every year. So for a conversation like that makes the South Carolina's and Missouri's of the world have a say, a some small percentage chance to win a national championship. You know, like Missouri right now and S.P. plus Missouri is the favorite to win the SCC east now. But I don't know if they'll be eligible for it or not. But that would be my point, is you. Every team has a chance to win their division. Not every I mean, not Vanderbilt and Kentucky, but many more teams have an opportunity to win their division. Then think about making a four team playoff with no automatic bids. And if you make if you win your division, you're gonna get a shot against whoever it is in in the lead title game. And if you win that, you're in. So I just think that is I think anything more than 8 ruins the regular season, which is the best.
Will: It's what makes college football great is the weight on every outcome. And making it about automatic bids and division winners means you keep the head to head value, which is the other thing that makes it so great. So I think you can accomplish what I applaud Dickey for making that suggestion, because I think he's right and you can track that through. We've been doing this now for, say, five years, six years with a playoff. And it is a lot of Alabama and Clemson and Ohio State and becoming a lot of Oklahoma here. But I think, you know, you provide the most hope to the most number of teams while maintaining the sanctity of the regular season. If you do eight, eight teams, every conference champion gets in the highest rated group of five. Champion gets and. So you've got a Cinderella every year and then to At-Large teams that the committee could pick. So I just hope that one is always my favorite. To me, I just think it accomplishes all of those things.
Joel: All right, back to Bama. Tennessee was, I think, opened as a twenty nine and a half point favorite and it's now up to thirty four and a half I believe, last time I looked. That's a lot of points, man. That does not look like a fun game to watch. So I think ESPN FBI gave Tennessee a one. This is off the top of my head, but I think it's a two point seven percent chance of of winning. So that's also fun. So what is it that we want to see on Saturday night? Do you know a team that is favored by that much is going to make the opponent look bad in almost all areas? So what is it that we're looking for to hopefully find some glimmer of hope in that game?
Will: It's funny when you're an underdog, when you're a five touchdown underdog, you know. So if Tennessee loses by thirty one, they've covered the spread with a little room to spare. But I don't think any of us are going to say, hey, lost by thirty one. You know where that was? That was decent work there. I think you want to see you want to see Tennessee move the ball offensively. You want to see them land their shots. Because some teams like Ole Miss. It's not just Texas A&M, but some other teams that are closer to Tennessee's talent level right now have landed a few blows on them. There's lots of the most optimistic version of any of this is Bama's got some injuries on the defensive front. They're not what they used to be there. They don't have to be because they can score 100 points a game or whatever. But, yeah, I mean, you want to see if Monday if if Alabama wins this game. Sixty three to twenty. Well sixty three to thirty one or something like that is going to feel better about things that Auburn team in 2013. The DOBs played against that was fifty five to twenty three.
Will: But you know Tennessee was within seven right before halftime and at a point and. Auburn got some special teams touchdowns too. But at a point there you just. OK. They're better than us and they're pulling away. But if you can land some punches early, if it's, you know, seventeen to seven and then twenty seven to 14 or whatever, just lands and punches. B attempts to be compelling television at the start of the third quarter, like at halftime of Tennessee's down twenty eight. That's probably not great. You know, so is can you keep it to twenty one or less in the first half. Gives some reason or some idea that maybe if you come down the field and score to start the third quarter, then maybe BAM has been playing football for a while here without a bye. Tennessee almost got him four years ago in Tuscaloosa in that scenario. So, you know, that's that's one thing also to look at there. But, you know, I don't know. I just I'm not sure. I don't know how this Tennessee team stops these guys, which goes back to the onside kick conversation.
Joel: I'm wondering if that 9 o'clock kick, wasn't it? You know, hey, can you put us on after most of our fans bedtimes? I don't know. I
Will: Well,
Joel: Cause.
Will: The fun online joke about that is Alabama has this fancy new synchronized stadium light thing, which I am sure we'll see a bunch on Saturday, but they haven't played a night game at home yet.
Joel: Oh.
Will: So this is their first opportunity to use it this season. So some some people are like, you know, hey, we spent millions of dollars or whatever on this system. Can you do us a favor and throw us a late. Central Time start against the team? We're going to be favored by five touchdowns against. Oh, that'll be fun and cool. So, yeah, I've been expecting lots of snark and jokes about the fancy new light system at Bryant Denning.
Joel: So I'm actually glad that I asked you that question because something you said made me think of something I hadn't thought about before, which which is you kind of want to compare yourself to everybody else who's played them. Right. So if you look at their scores so far, you get Duke lost. Forty two to three. You don't want to be like them.
Will: But they were compelling for a quarter and a half.
Joel: Ok,
Will: Something
Joel: So you
Will: Like that.
Joel: See, I go a little bit longer than that, which, you know, generally we're only good for a quarter and a half. But maybe in the both the first half and the second half, maybe we're we're in at New Mexico State. Sixty two to ten. You don't want to let him get to 60. Ole Miss, not southern miss. Forty nine to seven. Now, if you can do better than that. That would be good. So we're really looking at South Carolina, Ole Miss and M and Ms. Top twenty five team or. Or was.
Will: More talented than us by far.
Joel: Yes.
Will: A&m is,
Joel: Yes.
Will: But not the other.
Joel: Right. So you got South Carolina forty seven, twenty three. That would be respectable.
Will: Four. Yes, it is. I would take that
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Right now.
Joel: Ole Miss. Fifty nine to thirty one. I like the thirty one part of that.
Will: Twenty eight. Same thing. You cover the spread by a touchdown and you scored a lot of points and could tell yourself, hey, when we're not playing Bama, we're gonna do great.
Joel: Are you doing that math in your head? Because, you know, it's after 9 for me and I just I didn't even realize that's it for
Will: Football bars and church attendance are the only two men that I can do.
Joel: This dude is so good at Severns, man.
Will: The threat seven thousand fifty nine thirty one. They both kicked a field goal in their.
Joel: All right. And then and I was forty seven. Twenty eight. What's that. That's a. Right.
Will: I say, yeah, but again, I wouldn't I wouldn't compare us to. Same thing with A&M, that game, listening to the updates, driving back from the Mississippi State game on Saturday. You know, it was. Oh, all right. Now it's twenty seven, fourteen or whatever. Oh, they're within. Okay. Well there's still high. That's what you want is compelling as long as possible. And and you're not going to get the sort of Duke was compelling for a while at like 7 to 3 or something like that in the first week of the season. You're not gonna get that. So you want to me, it's going to have to be the trading blows compelling.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Which would be especially if Mauer plays.
Joel: Yeah. And I would be OK if if it comes down to us holding our own for a while and then just get getting worn out at the end of each half. We're just. There's an explanation for that. Right. So yeah, I'll I'll take that too. I meant to look up a rap name for you, but I still have not done that. So I'm just gonna give you your freestyle anonymous thing. Give him a chance to say whatever you want to say as long as you make it rhyme and say it in rhythm.
Will: Yeah, well, I can't. I can't promise you either of those things. You know, this is bargaining again. David even had a nice piece today where athletics doing this thing, where they're doing mid-season reviews on all these teams and his his each one they're doing. What's the biggest question for this team? And his was was Mississippi state a turning point or an outlier? And that's right. You know, there's a chance we look back.
Joel: Yes.
Will: It's not just the end of the season, but in about three weeks. And we say, oh, Mississippi State is in the toilet like there. It's just not happening for them.
Joel: Well, they
Will: And.
Joel: Got all those I'm sorry to interrupt, but they got all those suspensions, too, which can't help the overall record.
Will: No, nor can playing LSU and everybody else that they've still yet to play despite having three losses now. So, yeah, there's a chance that happens and we get back into the business of not only losing but losing to losing to Missouri by twenty eight hours or something like that. I mean, that's that's still possible. I think it's clear at this point that Vanderbilt is very bad and maybe looking for a coach by the time they get around to playing us. UAB is sneaky. You have like 5 and 1 or something like
Joel: Yep.
Will: That, but they're still not. They got some football. Let's play before they play us.
Joel: The SBM loves you. By the way,
Will: Yet
Joel: Every
Will: The
Joel: Week.
Will: Advance that still don't love them, but I mean, look at their record the last two years. They. They deserve some love.
Joel: They're putting up points in their keeping opponents from putting up points. I know their schedules are out there, but that good. But.
Will: Yeah. But, you know, we'll see about about them by the time we get there.
Joel: Yeah,
Will: And Kentucky, you know,
Joel: I think.
Will: I think this school of thought there is if you could beat Kentucky the way you beat them last year, and you've shown with Mississippi State that if your team has something below average at quarterback, you can kind of smother that. They did that with BYU with the exception of one play. So I know Tennessee is capable of shutting down an offense that does not have a quarterback that's worth a whole lot. So I don't worry about that one. But yeah, I mean, I think there's that's the argument. Was this an outlier? And in a couple of weeks, we're gonna be back to talking about making sure this team doesn't get to 3 and 9 or whatever. Or was it a genuine turning point? Because, you know, it's it's got him at five point one on the ole expected win total this week. So it's it's not impossible, but there's work to do here. So and we just we fell into this trap last year. And when they beat Kentucky last year, we're five and five. I thought, man, this this year, a successful year is in the bag. You know, even if they even if they split these next two games, this is gonna be a successful year. We're gonna go to a bowl game. Things are trending up. And then they just. I mean, you were there. We were all there. They were awful against Missouri and Vanderbilt. So you just never know what's going to happen. But yeah, I think that's I think that's the question here going forward.
Joel: And that'll do it for this episode of the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast, as always. Thanks for listening. As always, do us a favor. Subscribe, give us a rating. Have a review. I need to start saying this at the beginning because, you know,
Will: Got
Joel: I don't know very
Will: To
Joel: Much.
Will: Make it to the end. Yes.
Joel: Yeah.
Will: Thank you for bringing it to the end if
Joel: Yeah.
Will: You're still listening to this.
Joel: Yeah. So bonus points, if you include in your review the secret phrase onside kick. There we go again with that one. So for Will Shelton, I'm Joel Hollingsworth and this has been the Gameday on Rocky Top podcast. And I applaud Skype for actually making it through with booting you off and making you start mid-sentence again.
Will: Indeed. I think we we stayed true to our word of finishing by 9:15. So it's a valued hour, our effort there.
Joel: It did. Very nice. All right, well, wish me luck with the statistics. I don't even know what it is we're trying to figure out tonight. Something to do with. I can't even tell you.
Will: Well, yes, I did find a way to turn it into multiples of seven and football scores and you'll just find.
The Tide opened as a 29.5-point favorite over Tennessee, and as of Thursday morning, it’s moved to 34.5. Will the Vols cover against Alabama?
The SPM’s performance so far in 2019
The SPM went 27-22 (55.1%) last week on all games. Above the pre-chosen confidence level, it was 8-6 (57.14%) and within the pre-chosen confidence range it was 4-4 (50%). That’s two weeks in a row that it hasn’t done as well in the confidence range than it has just over the confidence level. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
As expected, the SPM is beginning to find its legs with more games and comps to choose from. It’s still playing catch-up a bit from earlier in the season, but after two solid weeks, it’s now 159-165 (49.07%) overall, 74-64 (53.62%) above the confidence level, and 37-24 (60.66%) within the confidence range.
So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-Alabama game? Let’s have a look.
Vols-Tide
From the perspective of Tennessee
Tennessee points:
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23
Alabama scoring defense for the season: 17
The Alabama scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):
Florida 14.1
Georgia 12.3
Tennessee scored 3 points against Florida and 14 points against Georgia, so against the two best comps, Tennessee scored only 64% of what those teams usually give up. That puts the estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama right at 10.9.
Alabama points:
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.7
Alabama scoring offense for the season: 51
The Alabama scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):
Georgia 38.5
Georgia State 35.5
Note first that those two comps aren’t really even close to what Alabama’s regularly putting on the scoreboard. For whatever it’s worth, Georgia State scored 38 points against Tennessee, and Georgia scored 43. So, the Vols allowed the two best-but-not-very-good comps 109% of what they usually score. That puts the estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee at 55.6.
Estimated score: Tennessee 10.9, Alabama 55.6
From the perspective of Alabama
Alabama points:
Alabama scoring offense for the season: 51
Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 25.7
The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s) (FBS only):
Mississippi 27.4
Duke 23.2
South Carolina 23.2
Alabama scored 59 points against Mississippi, 42 against Duke, and 47 against South Carolina, so against the three best comps, Alabama scored 200% (double!) of what those teams usually give up. That puts the estimated points for Alabama against Tennessee at 51.4.
Tennessee points:
Alabama scoring defense for the season: 17
Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 23
The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Alabama opponent(s):
New Mexico State 19.6
Mississippi 27.1
Alabama allowed Mississippi 31 points and New Mexico State 10, which means that, together, those teams got only 88% of what they usually get when they played Alabama. That puts the estimated points for Tennessee against Alabama at 20.2.
Estimated score: Alabama 51.4, Tennessee 20.2
SPM Final Estimates
When you throw all of that in the stew and crank up the heat, here’s what’s for dinner:
SPM Final estimated score: Alabama 53.5, Tennessee 15.6
SPM Final estimated spread: Alabama -37.9
SPM Confidence level: 8.4
That 8.4 confidence level is just below the confidence range that the SPM favors the most this season, meaning this is not one of its favorite picks this week.
Eyeball adjustments
The SPM is not designed to account for things like player substitutions or teams navigating learning curves associated with youth or new coaching staffs, and Tennessee has all of that. For that reason, I’m expecting the SPM to adjust to improvement from the Vols but to be slow in doing so. It will come, but when we’re playing a good team like Alabama, the SPM’s not going to look at the most recent games but at the most comparable opponents, and for Alabama, that’s going to be Georgia and Florida. Tennessee seemed like a different team against Georgia than against Florida and is probably becoming a different team each week as it traverses the learning curve.
Still, I have a nagging suspicion that Mississippi State is just not very good and a nagging certainty that the Alabama offense is a machine lethal to defenses. So, although I sincerely believe that the Vols are improving, I’m giving a healthy dose of deference to the SPM against this week. I think the SPM is a little high on Alabama’s points but pretty close on Tennessee’s. With that, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Alabama 48, Tennessee 17, a spread of 31. I guess that means that I don’t think the Vols will cover the opening spread of -29.5, but that they will cover the current spread of -34.5.
Other predictions from other systems
As previously mentioned, the Vegas line opened with Alabama a 29.5-point favorite, and it is now 34.5. The over/under of 62 translates to something like Alabama 48, Tennessee 14. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 2.6% chance of winning.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes Alabama 41-14, and gives the Vols a 6% chance of winning. That’s a spread of -27.4, so it’s taking Tennessee and the points.
SP+ cooled a bit more last week, going only 26-26 (50%) overall, but it is still an incredibly impressive 57% for the year. As I said earlier, our SPM has beaten SP+ the last two weeks but is still far behind at 49.07% overall. Above our confidence level, it’s 53.62% and within our confidence range, it’s 60.66%.
Bottom line
Both I and the SPM think the Vols fail to cover the opening 29.5-point spread this week.
With the Vols not kicking off until after your kids’ bedtime on Saturday, you have an entire day of relaxing and scouting ahead of you. Future Vols opponents South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt are all in action in the early time slots this weekend, as are a handful of Top 25 matchups of national interest. Here’s when and where to find those games, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.
First up is the list curated just for Vols fans. The full schedule follows that.
There’s a game Wednesday night, but it’s of no interest to Vols fans, so the week really kicks Thursday.
Thursday, October 17, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
UCLA
Stanford
9:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Former coaching candidate
Remember when everyone was pining for Chip Kelly? Peek in Thursday night to see how he’s doing at UCLA.
Friday, October 18, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
#4 Ohio State
Northwestern
8:30 PM
FS1
Live
It's football
Eh, are there any Vols fans at all interested in the Ohio State Buckeyes? What if it’s really the only option on a Friday night?
Gameday, October 19, 2019
Away
Home
Time
TV
How
Why
NOON
#9 Florida
South Carolina
12:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Former/future Vols opponents
AFTERNOON
#12 Oregon
#25 Washington
3:30 PM
ABC
Channel hop 2
Top 25 matchup
#22 Missouri
Vanderbilt
4:00 PM
SECN
DVR/Channel hop 1A
Future Vols opponents
Kentucky
#10 Georgia
6:00 PM
ESPN
DVR/Channel hop 1B
Former/future Vols opponents
#17 Arizona State
#13 Utah
6:00 PM
PAC12
Channel hop 3
Top 25 matchup
EVENING
#16 Michigan
#7 Penn State
7:30 PM
ABC
Live, until Vols
Top 25 matchup
Tennessee
#1 Alabama
9:00 PM
ESPN
Live
Go Vols!
At noon, Vols fans get a chance to see next week’s opponent — South Carolina — in action against former opponent Florida. We’re hoping for a nice scouting report and a blueprint wrapped up all pretty-like with a bow.
Get your remote limber for the afternoon slot, as three future Vols’ opponents are in action at the same time as two Top 25 matchups. We’re hoping to spot some exploitable vulnerabilities in Missouri and to stoke existing hope against Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
The evening time slot kicks off with a Top 25 Big 10 matchup between No. 16 Michigan and No. 7 Penn State, so watch that live until the Vols kick off against No. 1 Alabama at 9:00 on ESPN and then hope for a memory that will last a lifetime. Go Vols!
Below is a look at Tennessee’s national stat rankings side-by-side with the corollary rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide. You can probably guess that it’s not good news, but we have dressed it up in pretty colors because it helps the medicine go down.
The short version, for those who like needles more than pharmacies, is that Tennessee has zero advantages on offense and what amounts to a tie in only one category on defense (with the rest decisively in the Tide’s favor). The Vols do actually have better rankings in special teams and penalties, though, so there’s that.
Details below.
Vols on offense
Well, this is no good at all. When the Vols have the ball, they are at a serious disadvantage in . . . everything. The biggest problem, of course, is that Tennessee’s Scoring Offense is in the Bottom 30, while Alabama’s Scoring Defense is in the Top 15. Woo. The Tide defense also has an appetite for interceptions that the Vols are all too willing to Door Dash directly to them. It’s going to be a long day for the Vols offense.
Vols on defense
Well, this is no good at all, either. Although Tennessee has its own healthy appetite for interceptions, Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a selfish, selfish man with the ball. Beyond that, Alabama’s much better on every down and in every category. Woo.
Special teams
We interrupt this downer to bring you good tidings: Tennessee has a better punter than Alabama. The Vols are also marginally better in most special teams categories. So, the gameplan is to brainstorm an innovative new strategy to play the entire game on special teams. I hope they got an early start on that.
Turnovers and penalties
Alabama commits more penalties than Tennessee does. Nah-na-na-na-na-na. Alabama’s better in the turnover game. Boo.
Tennessee’s defensive rankings improved, and special teams is still a strength for the Vols, after the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Offense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Climbed into the Top 30: Passing Yards per Completion
Fell into the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, Passes Had Intercepted
Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.
I expected to see a little more positive movement on these, especially in Rushing Offense. Hmm.
Defense
Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Team Tackles for Loss.
Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing.
Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing.
Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.
Lots of positive movement here. The biggest mover was in Team Sacks, which went from No. 96 to No. 43. Passing Yards Allowed also improved a lot this week.
Special Teams
No red in this entire category since the BYU game. Net Punting recovered a bit this week, but it still has a ways to go to get its mojo back.
Turnovers and Penalties
Some improvement in penalties this week, and there was more action in turnovers Saturday, although it unfortunately occurred on both sides of the ledger.
Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.
The GRT Expected Win Total Machine
My assessment
My nutshell assessment of the Vols after the Mississippi State game is that the team is indeed improving, and I think they’re doing it in all of the right places and all of the right ways. With Maurer going out early and Guarantano taking over against the Bulldogs, it does seem to me that the problems aren’t necessarily personnel but, as some of us suspected, just a matter of navigating the learning curve of two new coordinators and a bunch of new players at key positions. I still think that elite teams are going to make the Vols look worse than they really are, but I am feeling much more comfortable against most the second-tier of the SEC East.
Meanwhile, Missouri’s looking good but still has Florida and Georgia looming, and South Carolina looks dangerous. But Kentucky and Vanderbilt look more and more beatable. UAB looks like maybe they deserve to be in the same group as the Wildcats and the Commodores, though, rather than set apart in the feel-good range.
With this week’s adjustments, I now have an expected win total of . . . 4.4, up, but by only slightly more than half a game from last week.
Preseason: 6.55
After Week 0: 6.6
After Week 1: 2.87
After Week 2: 2.37
After Week 3: 3.65
After Week 4: 2.9
After Week 5: 3.25
After Week 6: 3.85
After Week 7: 4.4
Details: Alabama remains at 5%. Missouri moves from 25% to 35%, and South Carolina joins them there. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and UAB all move to 55%, Kentucky and Vanderbilt from 50% and UAB from 75%.
Here’s a table with my expectations this week:
Tennessee Volunteers currently
Current record: 2-4 (1-2), 5th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Georgia State, 30-38
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to BYU, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Chattanooga, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ No. 9 Florida, 34-3
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Mississippi State, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost @ 1 Alabama, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat South Carolina, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat UAB, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Kentucky, 17-13
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Missouri, 24-20
Sat, Nov 30
vs Vanderbilt
The Vols’ past opponents
Georgia State Panthers
Current record: 4-2 (2-1), 2nd in the Sun Belt East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Tennessee, 38-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Furman, 48-42
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Western Michigan, 57-10
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Texas State, 37-34 3OT
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Arkansas State, 52-38
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Coastal Carolina, 31-21
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Army, 28-21
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Troy, 52-33
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ UL Monroe, 45-31
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 25 Appalachian State, 56-27
Sat, Nov 23
Beat South Alabama, 28-15
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Southern
It’s not accurate to say that the Vols lost to a good team when they lost to Georgia State. But it’s also no longer accurate to say that the Vols lost to a 2-10 Sun Belt team. The Panthers are now 4-2 and 2nd in the Sun Belt East, and they’re better this year than they were last year. They still shouldn’t have beaten the Vols in Neyland Stadium, but maybe they’re actually a little better than we thought.
BYU Cougars
Current record: 2-4 (0-0)
Thu, Aug 29
Lost to No. 14 Utah, 12-30
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Tennessee, 29-26 2OT
Sat, Sep 14
Beat No. 24 USC, 30-27 OT
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 22 Washington, 45-19
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Toledo, 28-21
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ South Florida, 27-23
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 14 Boise State, 28-25
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Utah State, 42-14
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Liberty, 31-24
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Idaho State, 42-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UMass, 56-24
Sat, Nov 30
@ San Diego State
The Cougars led 23-14 heading into the fourth quarter and lost 27-23 to South Florida. They’ve now lost their last three games, the last two of them to unranked teams.
Chattanooga Mocs
Current record: 3-3 (2-0), 2nd in the Southern Conference
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Eastern Illinois, 24-10
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Jacksonville State, 41-20
Sat, Sep 14
Lost at Tennessee, 45-0
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to James Madison, 37-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Western Carolina, 60-36
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Mercer, 34-17
Thu, Oct 17
Beat East Tennessee State, 16-13
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Wofford, 35-34 OT
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to Furman, 35-20
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Samford, 35-27
Sat, Nov 16
Beat The Citadel, 34-33
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to VMI, 31-24
Off this week.
Florida Gators
Current record: 6-1 (3-1), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 24
Beat Miami, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat UT Martin, 45-0
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Kentucky, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Tennessee, 34-3
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Towson, 38-0
Sat, Oct 5
Beat No. 7 Auburn, 24-13
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ No. 5 LSU, 42-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat South Carolina, 38-27
Sat, Nov 2
Lost to No. 8 Georgia, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Vanderbilt, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Missouri, 23-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs Florida State
Played two Top 10 teams in the last two weeks. Beat one at home, lost to the other on the road. LSU looks like the best of the three, but Florida’s still a Top 10 team in my book.
Georgia Bulldogs
Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Vanderbilt, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Murray State, 63-17
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Arkansas State, 55-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat No. 7 Notre Dame, 23-17
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Tennessee, 43-14
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to South Carolina, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Kentucky, 21-0
Sat, Nov 2
Beat No. 6 Florida, 24-17
Sat, Nov 9
Beat Missouri, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Beat No. 12 Auburn, 21-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Texas A&M, 19-13
Sat, Nov 30
@ Georgia Tech
I didn’t see anything but the end of regulation and the two overtimes in this one, but I will say that Georgia had their butts saved at least a couple of times before finally tempting fate a time too many. Credit to the Gamecocks, and this one has to make Vols fans feel worse both about the loss to Georgia and the upcoming game against South Carolina, but it also has a sort of outlier feel to it.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Current record: 3-3 (1-2), 5th in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Louisiana, 38-28
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Southern Mississippi, 38-15
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to Kansas State, 31-24
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Kentucky, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ No. 7 Auburn, 56-23
Sat, Oct 12
Lost @ Tennessee, 20-10
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 2 LSU
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Texas A&M, 49-30
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Arkansas, 54-24
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 5 Alabama, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Abilene Christian, 45-7
Thu, Nov 28
vs Ole Miss
The Vols’ future opponents
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current record: 6-0 (3-0), 1st in the SEC West
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Duke, 42-3
Sat, Sep 7
Beat New Mexico State, 62-10
Sat, Sep 14
Beat South Carolina, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Beat Southern Miss, 49-7
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Ole Miss, 59-31
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 24 Texas A&M, 47-28
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Tennessee, 35-13
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Arkansas, 48-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to No. 2 LSU, 46-41
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Mississippi State, 38-7
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Western Carolina, 66-3
Sat, Nov 30
@ No. 11 Auburn
Tua’s touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is 27:1. My takeaway from that is that we can get an interception next week as long as we give up 27 touchdowns first.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Current record: 3-3 (2-2), 4th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to North Carolina, 24-20
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Charleston Southern, 72-10
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 2 Alabama, 47-23
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Missouri, 34-14
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Kentucky, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat No. 3 Georgia, 20-17 2OT
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 9 Florida, 38-27
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Tennessee, 41-21
Sat, Nov 2
Beat Vanderbilt, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Appalachian State, 20-15
Sat, Nov 16
Lost @ Texas A&M, 30-6
Sat, Nov 30
vs 4 Clemson
Just beat the No. 3 team in the nation. Currently fourth in the SEC East with two conference losses. On their third quarterback this season already. Okay, then.
UAB Blazers
Current record: 5-1 (2-1), 3rd in C-USA West
Thu, Aug 29
Beat Alabama State, 24-19
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Akron, 31-20
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Alabama, 35-3
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ Western Kentucky, 20-13
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Rice, 35-20
Sat, Oct 12
Beat UTSA, 33-14
Sat, Oct 19
Beat Old Dominion, 38-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ Tennessee, 30-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ Southern Miss, 37-2
Sat, Nov 16
Beat UTEP, 37-10
Sat, Nov 23
Beat Louisiana Tech, 20-14
Sat, Nov 30
@ North Texas
I’m sounding the alarm on the UAB Blazers, although nobody’s going to pay any attention. Yes, that’s a nobody schedule, but it’s also a lot of Ws.
Kentucky Wildcats
Current record: 3-3 (1-3), 6th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Beat Toledo, 38-24
Sat, Sep 7
Beat Eastern Michigan, 38-17
Sat, Sep 14
Lost to No. 8 Florida, 29-21
Sat, Sep 21
Lost @ Mississippi State, 28-13
Sat, Sep 28
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Arkansas, 24-20
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to No. 10 Georgia, 21-0
Sat, Oct 26
Beat Missouri, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost to Tennessee, 17-13
Sat, Nov 16
Beat Vanderbilt, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat UT Martin, 50-7
Sat, Nov 30
vs Louisville
Some will find it funny that the Arkansas Razorbacks just got beat by a Kentucky team starting a wide receiver at quarterback. For some reason, I don’t think that’s funny at all. Not one single bit.
Missouri Tigers
Current record: 5-1 (2-0), 1st in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to Wyoming, 37-31
Sat, Sep 7
Beat West Virginia, 38-7
Sat, Sep 14
Beat Southeast Missouri State, 50-0
Sat, Sep 21
Beat South Carolina, 34-14
Sat, Oct 5
Beat Troy, 42-10
Sat, Oct 12
Beat Ole Miss, 38-27
Sat, Oct 19
Lost to Vanderbilt, 21-14
Sat, Oct 26
Lost @ Kentucky, 29-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 6 Georgia, 27-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to No. 11 Florida, 23-6
Sat, Nov 23
Lost to Tennessee, 24-20
Fri, Nov 29
@ Arkansas
Don’t look now, but the Missouri Tigers are first in the SEC East. Those back-to-back games against Georgia and Florida in mid-November loom.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Current record: 1-5 (0-3), 7th in the SEC East
Sat, Aug 31
Lost to No. 3 Georgia, 30-6
Sat, Sep 7
Lost to Purdue, 42-24
Sat, Sep 21
Lost to No. 4 LSU, 66-38
Sat, Sep 28
Beat Northern Illinois, 24-18
Sat, Oct 5
Lost to Ole Miss, 31-6
Sat, Oct 12
Lost to UNLV, 34-10
Sat, Oct 19
Beat No. 22 Missouri, 21-14
Sat, Nov 2
Lost @ South Carolina, 24-7
Sat, Nov 9
Lost @ No. 10 Florida, 56-0
Sat, Nov 16
Lost to Kentucky, 38-14
Sat, Nov 23
Beat ETSU, 38-0
Sat, Nov 30
@ Tennessee
Oh, my. Halfway through the season and one win, against Northern Illinois. (No, I wouldn’t have written this had the Vols lost to Mississippi State. Why do you ask?)
What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?
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