Early Bye Week Recruiting Musings

The more I think about the pickup of OLB Jimari Butler the more I love it.  Yes, the loss of BJ Ojulari was a big blow to the class, particularly given Tennessee’s need for pass rushers both immediately in 2020 and when looking out vis a vis the current roster.  And yes, Butler is raw and relatively underrecruited (for now).  But like we’ve noted, Pruitt has a pretty darn good track record for talent evaluation, which should make Vol fans feel good about just about anyone Tennessee chooses to take.  Perhaps more importantly, when specifically looking at Butler what jumps out is his pure athleticism to go with his size.  Why was Roman Harrison relatively underrecruited last season as a future pass rusher?  Because he’s 6’1.  Why has Quarvaris Crouch, a bigtime player who’s a cornerstone of the future somewhere on defense, failed to get home to the QB multiple times despite getting good push on Offensive Tackles?  Because he’s 6’1.  And why is Darrell Taylor a likely 2nd round pick at worst despite playing during a pretty darn bad stretch of Tennessee football?  Because he’s 6’5 and combines that length with top end athleticism to actually sack the QB.  Butler is also 6’5, and used that length as well as his elite athletic ability – he was clocked at a 4.6 40 over the summer and you can see his ability to bend around the corner on film – to get 18 sacks just this season, his first playing football since 7th grade. That length is something that Tennessee just doesn’t have much of at the OLB/Rush DE spot, and it makes a huge difference.  I’m not sure he’s a 2020 contributor simply given his lack of experience – though I wouldn’t put it past Pruitt and Co. to get him there – but mark me down as saying Butler is a future star and will likely see a bigtime ratings boost before all is said and done. 

With Tennessee on a bit of a roll it’s obvious that things are stable in Knoxville.  And not only does winning help in general, but that stability, and the erasure of any talk about Pruitt’s job security that goes with it, is huge.  Combine that with the recent firings at FSU and Arkansas as well as real instability at places like South Carolina (likely to finish 4-8) and potentially other SEC programs like Mississippi State and Tennessee’s program has a real advantage.  That’s of course even before you get to the carousel that will come from FSU and Arkansas hiring coaches themselves and whatever other coaching changes are made at programs nationally. 

To that point, the opinion here is that Tennessee’s staff should resist the urge to go poach immediately from those programs and instead be picky and stick with its philosophy of only going after bigtime players (as defined both by recruiting services and more importantly the staff itself).  Right now there are limited spots left in the class and realistically many more options out there to fill them.  There will also inevitably be new players who come on the board, either because of coaching changes or because Tennessee sees something they like from senior/JUCO film or even in a postseason all star game and decides to make a move.  And given the above, there are going to be players that the Vols missed out on earlier in the process who are newly available and re-engaging with the Tennessee staff.  Guys like Arkansas DE commitments Blayne Toll and RB John Gentry, FSU OLB commitment Morven Joseph, Mississippi State OLB commitment Jevon Banks, or even a guy like RB/LB Len’neth Whitehead who was a heavy Gamecock lean but now may be feeling uneasy about what’s going on in Columbia.  Further, should Tennessee win out to get to 7-5 and play in a January bowl like the Taxslayer in Jacksonville, they very well may be able to regain traction with 5-stars like ILB Noah Sewell, OLB Sa’vell Smalls (a Washington commitment), and WR Rakim Jarrett (a LSU commitment) and keep momentum going with 5-star TE Darnell Washington and Alabama WR commitment Thaiu Jones-Bell.  As Pruitt says, it’s about the players you get, not the ones you don’t get.  But if Tennessee continues to win AND the staff plays its cards right (i.e., not just taking the first couple of guys looking for a lifeboat), the Vols could find themselves with the opportunity to actually choose from a host of really good players.  Having to make tough decisions is by definition difficult, but it’s always a better position to be in than being desperate and trying to fill spots. 

There are also positional needs to consider – the Vols need playmakers on offense, they need at least one more pass rusher, and they need at least one more LB.  One could also argue they need another DB if possible.  No matter what, with only 25 spots (although it’s worth wondering whether Tennessee got Melvin McBride’s 2019 initial counter back due to his medical condition and can sign 26) Tennessee will not be able to get exactly where it needs to be in terms of talent and depth with just the 2020 class, even if the class does move the program significantly forward in that regard.  It could come down to Best Player Available down the stretch, where Tennessee chooses to go with “another” player at a position that seemingly has been filled simply because he’s a significantly better football player than the best available player at a position of “need” in the class.  For example, would Tennessee take both Whitehead and ILB/RB Desmond Tisdol?  Would they take all of DL Tyler Baron, Octavius Oxendine, Omari Thomas and then a guy like Reginald Perry?  What if Jay Hardy comes to his senses and wants (back) in?  Would they take all offensive playmakers Jones-Bell, JUCO RB Zaquandre White, and ATHs Dee Beckwith and Jimmy Holiday?  Would they add a 5th OL if it’s Chris Morris?  Again, potentially good problems to have to solve for, and I would wholeheartedly support the “BPA” decision especially if it comes on the backs of remaining patient.

Tennessee Vols statistical ranking trends – after Kentucky

Now on a four-game win streak, how are the Vols’ statistical rankings trending now?

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passing Yards per Completion

Needs attention: Scoring Offense, Rushing Offense, Passes Had Intercepted, Red Zone Offense, Total Offense, 4th Down Conversion Pct

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing

Climbed into the Top 30: Nothing

Fell into the Bottom 30: Scoring Offense, Rushing Offense

Scoring Offense and Rushing Offense have been flirting with the Bottom 30 for weeks, and they have now stepped over the ledge into darkness. First Downs Offense and Completion Percentage are still resisting the gravity of the abyss, for now. Basically, the win streak is nice, but everything except Passing Yards per Completion still needs to get better on offense.

Defense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Passes Intercepted, 4th Down Conversion Pct Defense, Passing Yards Allowed

Needs attention: Same as last week — First Downs Defense, 3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense, Tackles for Loss

Climbed out of the Bottom 30: Nothing.

Fell out of the Top 30: Nothing.

Climbed into the Top 30: Passing Yards Allowed

Fell into the Bottom 30: Nothing

Any improvement here is probably due to playing a team that can’t or doesn’t throw the ball. But still, green is good on these things, and the green is growing.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Blocked Punts, Kickoff Return Defense, Punt Returns, Blocked Kicks

Needs attention: Nothing’s in the Bottom 30 here, but Net Punting and Kickoff Returns are the areas that can be improved.

I wouldn’t get too concerned about the change in Blocked Kicks and Punts Allowed. When a difference of “1” can result in a drop to 43 and 84, it’s not worth getting worked up about.

Turnovers and Penalties

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

Currently doing well: Turnovers Gained

Needs attention: Turnovers Lost

Same story here as last week: Penalties can be improved, although you want to make sure you don’t do so at the cost of losing your aggression. And on turnovers, the defense is doing fine, but the offense is still too generous.

Tennessee 17 Kentucky 13: We’re Close

It felt like we were due a close game. We got one. Then Tennessee did a bunch of things you can’t do to win close games: almost twice as many penalty yards, dropped a snap on a punt, fumbled in their own territory in the final ten minutes, etc. The Vols felt like they were in control most of the night against BYU and lost. Kentucky, from a 17-play opening drive, felt like they were in control most of the night.

Those 17 plays were the first of 71 for Kentucky. Tennessee ran 46, leaving them at 621 on the year, the fewest for any team that’s played 10 games this season (stats via SportSource Analytics). That part hasn’t changed from last season, when the Vols ran fewer plays than any team in college football.

Beating Kentucky, as it turns out, hasn’t changed either.

The how was much, much different. Kentucky rolled into Knoxville last season ranked 12th, and rolled back up I-75 on the wrong end of a beat down: the Vols averaged 6.86 yards per play and held Kentucky to 3.59, a difference of 3.27 representing the biggest gap between Tennessee and a power five foe since Georgia in 2009.

Different team, different venue, much closer game. But in the end, the Vols are back at the same result: 5-5, two games to play. Last season those five wins came via a pair of ranked upsets, but the year ended with a pair of crushing defeats. This time the five wins have come via Chattanooga and a hot streak: the Vols have now covered the spread five weeks in a row for only the second time since 1998.

That list, via the closing lines at covers.com:

  • 2019: Mississippi State, Alabama, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky and counting…
  • 2010: Tyler Bray’s emergence in the last five games of the regular season
  • 1998: The first five games (and just missed the first seven, failing to cover against Alabama by a single point; the 98 Vols ultimately went 9-4 against the spread)
  • 1992: The first five games before losing straight up to Arkansas as a 22-point favorite
  • 1990: Possible asterisk here, as covers.com has no line for the 55-7 win over Pacific in week two; otherwise the Vols covered the first five games before the 9-6 debacle against Alabama, still the worst non-2001-LSU loss of my lifetime
  • A wild sequence in the mid-80’s: the Vols covered the last four games of 1985, including the 35-7 win over Miami in the Sugar Bowl as a 7.5-point underdog. Then the Vols failed to cover in the first six weeks of 1986 in a 2-4 start. Then they covered the last five weeks of the regular season and in the bowl against Minnesota in a 5-1 finish. And then they covered the first five weeks of 1987, making it 11 in a row between seasons.

So while beating Kentucky is ordinary, if things overall feel fairly unprecedented, it’s because they kind of are.

A 7-5 finish remains firmly on the table, the preseason Vegas prediction within reach even after losing to Georgia State and BYU. If the Vols get there and win the bowl game – both of ESPN’s projections have the Vols in the Gator Bowl this morning, while Banner Society puts the Vols in Charlotte against UNC but leaves a tantalizing match-up in the realm of possibility by putting Michigan in the Gator Bowl – an 8-5 finish would still be the third-best season since 2007. The kind of marquee win Tennessee earned last year but failed to make last isn’t available the next two weeks. But win both of them, and it might be there for this team in January.

If there’s a full-circle narrative to this team, it’s fitting that Jarrett Guarantano should be the starting quarterback when the Vols go to Missouri in two weeks.

https://twitter.com/BroadwayJay2/status/1193394475093176320
Just easin’ the tension, baby.

Improbably, Guarantano is back in the conversation for Peyton Manning’s career completion percentage mark. After a 7-of-8 performance against the Cats, Guarantano is at 62.1%. Manning finished at 62.5%. Impossibly, “I hope he never plays another down,” has morphed into, “Hey, he could come back next year!”

He’s part of an offense featuring this:

Catches Per Game – Tennessee 2010-19

  1. Justin Hunter 2012 – 6.1
  2. Gerald Jones 2010 – 5.5
  3. Jauan Jennings 2019 – 5.0

And, at the same time, this:

Yards Per Catch with 20+ Catches – National Leaders

  1. Geraud Sanders, Air Force
  2. Tarique Milton, Iowa State
  3. CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
  4. Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
  5. Marquez Callaway, Tennessee

Tennessee is close. On a lot of levels. To bowl eligibility. To reasserting dominance over the second tier of the SEC East. To certifiable progress in the year it looked least possible.

Close was ultimately a bad word for Butch Jones; his first two teams, digging out of a similar hole, played nine one-possession games. The Vols went 4-5. Pruitt’s teams just played their fifth one-possession game, and are 2-3. The best way to win them remains not to play them, and so far in this streak the Vols had handled their business without drama in victory, and with the right kind of theatrics in Tuscaloosa.

But when a close game seemed unavoidable from the opening minutes last night, and the Vols failed to help themselves…they still won. On the road in the SEC. Thanks, in large part, to an incredible goal line stand that had to warm Jeremy Pruitt’s heart.

Pruitt and the Vols made it this far last year. We’re close to an especially surprising something more.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine: With two games to go

Use the form below to calculate your expected win total for the rest of the season.

The GRT Expected Win Total Machine


My assessment

About the Vols: It was a terrible start for the good guys against Kentucky, but they eventually got it figured out. And it was a bit hairy in the end, but Guarantano got just enough points and the defense got just enough stops to put another W on the board. This bodes well for the team the rest of the way.

About the remaining opponents: Florida made Vandy look even worse, and Georgia appeared to do the same thing against Missouri, although the Tigers were missing Kelly Bryant at quarterback and their leading receiver. I’m still reserving judgment on Missouri for now because of that.

A slight bump for the Vols, Vandy looks worse, Missouri who knows? I now have an expected win total of . . . 5.9 6.4 (thanks to Will, who pointed out on the podcast that that 5.9 wasn’t right. Lazy cut and paste job.) Same as last week. If things change for the better (for the Vols) with Missouri, that number will jump. A win against the Tigers will not only change that number from 60 to 100, it may result in me increasing my Vandy number up from 80. Basically, beat Missouri in two weeks, and I’ll be back to over my preseason expectations, and feeling better about rounding up to boot.

Here’s how I’ve tracked this season:

  • Preseason: 6.55
  • After Week 0: 6.6
  • After Week 1: 2.87
  • After Week 2: 2.37
  • After Week 3: 3.65
  • After Week 4: 2.9
  • After Week 5: 3.25
  • After Week 6: 3.85
  • After Week 7: 4.4
  • After Week 8: 4.7
  • After Week 9: 5.6
  • After Week 10: 5.9
  • After Week 11: 5.9 6.4

Details: I kept Missouri at 60% and dropped Vanderbilt to 80%.

Here’s a table with my expectations this week:

Tennessee Volunteers currently

Current record: 5-5 (3-3), 3rd in the SEC East

The Vols’ future opponents

Missouri Tigers

Current record: 5-4 (2-3), 4th in the SEC East

This one’s going to depend on whether Kelly Bryant plays. Without him (and leading receiver Johnathon Johnson) this week against Georgia, they scored zero points. Two different quarterbacks managed only 148 yards passing, and the team added only 50 yards on the ground.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Current record: 2-7 (1-5), 7th in the SEC East

Yikes, Vandy. A total of 77 yards passing and 51 yards rushing. They gave up 410 yards passing and 150 rushing.

The Vols’ past opponents

Georgia State Panthers

Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 2nd in the Sun Belt East

BYU Cougars

Current record: 5-4

Chattanooga Mocs

Current record: 5-5 (4-2), 3rd in the Southern Conference

Florida Gators

Current record: 8-2 (5-2), 2nd in the SEC East

Georgia Bulldogs

Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 1st in the SEC East

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Current record: 4-5 (2-4), 5th in the SEC West

Off this week.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current record: 8-1 (5-1), 2nd in the SEC West

This week’s Alabama-LSU game was great fun. LSU looked really, really good, although Alabama wasn’t really the same team with a hobbled Tua at quarterback. The rest of the team, too, just looked discombobulated, which was really uncharacteristic for the Tide.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Current record: 4-6 (3-4), 4th in the SEC East

The SPM saw this one coming, but I didn’t really believe it until App. State was up late. The game was pretty even, but the Mountaineers scored a valuable touchdown via pick six, and South Carolina missed a wide open receiver in the end zone late, which would have put them ahead.

UAB Blazers

Current record: 6-3 (3-2), 3rd in C-USA West

That’s right. UAB scored 2 points this week against Southern Miss.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current record: 4-5 (2-5), 6th in the SEC East

What about you? Where are your expectations for the Vols now?

Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans: Kentucky

It’s Gameday on Rocky Top, with the Vols (4-5, 2-3) hoping to get one game closer to — and one game away from — bowl eligibility with a win over the Kentucky Wildcats (4-4, 2-4). Here’s the Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans. Where and when to find the Tennessee-Kentucky game on TV, what other games to watch as well, and what to listen to and read as you wait for kickoff.

When is the Vols game, and what TV channel is it on?

Here are the particulars for today’s Tennessee game:

The best games for Vols fans to watch today

Today’s Gameday Gameplan for Tennessee fans features the Vols-Wildcats on the SEC Network at 7:30, but there are several other games of interest to Vols fans as well. Here’s our list of games to watch today, curated just for Big Orange fans:

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#5 Penn State #13 Minnesota 12:00 PM ABC Live / Channel Hop Top 15 matchup
Vanderbilt #10 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN DVR / Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
AFTERNOON
#1 LSU #2 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Live No. 1 vs. No. 2
EVENING
Missouri #6 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN Live until Vols, then DVR Future Vols opponent
Tennessee Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols!

And here’s a searchable version of this week’s entire college football TV schedule:

Date Away Home Time TV
11/5/19 Kent State Toledo 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/5/19 Ball State Western Michigan 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/6/19 Miami (OH) Ohio 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/7/19 Louisiana Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/7/19 Temple South Florida 8:00 PM ESPN
11/8/19 UCF Tulsa 7:00 PM
11/8/19 Washington Oregon State 10:30 PM FS1
11/9/19 Maryland #3 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
11/9/19 #5 Penn State #13 Minnesota 12:00 PM ABC
11/9/19 Vanderbilt #10 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN
11/9/19 #11 Baylor TCU 12:00 PM FS1
11/9/19 East Carolina #23 SMU 12:00 PM ESPNU
11/9/19 UMass Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/9/19 Western Kentucky Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN
11/9/19 Texas Tech West Virginia 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/9/19 Purdue Northwestern 12:00 PM BTN
11/9/19 Florida State Boston College 12:00 PM ACCN
11/9/19 Georgia Tech Virginia 12:30 PM ACCNX
11/9/19 UTSA Old Dominion 2:00 PM ESPN3
11/9/19 Air Force New Mexico 2:00 PM
11/9/19 Charlotte UTEP 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/9/19 Stanford Colorado 3:00 PM PAC12
11/9/19 South Alabama Texas State 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/9/19 #1 LSU #2 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
11/9/19 UConn #17 Cincinnati 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/9/19 #20 Kansas State Texas 3:30 PM ESPN
11/9/19 #22 Wake Forest Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ACCN
11/9/19 Georgia Southern Troy 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/9/19 Louisville Miami 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/9/19 USC Arizona State 3:30 PM ABC
11/9/19 UAB Southern Mississippi 3:30 PM NFL
11/9/19 Illinois Michigan State 3:30 PM FS1
11/9/19 #18 Iowa #16 Wisconsin 4:00 PM FOX
11/9/19 New Mexico State Ole Miss 4:00 PM SECN
11/9/19 North Texas Louisiana Tech 4:00 PM
11/9/19 Georgia State UL Monroe 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/9/19 Florida International Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM
11/9/19 Missouri #6 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN
11/9/19 Washington State California 7:00 PM PAC12
11/9/19 Utah State Fresno State 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/9/19 Appalachian State South Carolina 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/9/19 #4 Clemson NC State 7:30 PM ABC
11/9/19 #15 Notre Dame Duke 7:30 PM ACCN
11/9/19 Tennessee Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN
11/9/19 Liberty BYU 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/9/19 Iowa State #9 Oklahoma 8:00 PM FOX
11/9/19 Wyoming #21 Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN
11/9/19 Nevada #24 San Diego State 10:30 PM ESPN2
11/9/19 San Jose State Hawai'i 11:00 PM

GRT games and contests

While you’re waiting for the games to begin, make sure that you submit your answers to the GRT Guessing Game questions and update your picks for the GRT Pick ‘Em.

GRT game-week audio

Here’s the GRT Podcast from earlier this week:

And here is Will’s regular Friday appearance with Josh Ward and Heather Harrington on WNML’s Sports 180.

Pre-game prep

To catch up on your pre-game reading, have a look at our game preview posts from earlier this week:

Go Vols!

What are you most certain of with this team?

(Sorry, non-Cimaglia division.)

Starting quarterback isn’t an option; we still don’t know if we’re going to see Brian Maurer this week, nor have we seen enough of him to know exactly what to expect. If that leads to Jarrett Guarantano, is his injured hand any better this week? Guarantano, to his credit, has dominated Kentucky statistically: 18-of-23 for 242 in Lexington two years ago, 12-of-20 for 197 in Knoxville last year. The Vols lost to Kentucky in 2017 because they couldn’t put the ball in the end zone, settling for six field goal attempts and four makes in a 29-26 loss. Obviously, that’s been an issue for Tennessee in the red zone all season.

The running game, much celebrated against Mississippi State and Alabama, had a rough night against UAB. The offensive line was banged up, and we’ll see if any of that has changed. Kentucky was stronger against Missouri in the rain, holding the Tigers to 125 yards on 34 carries (3.68 per). But in every other SEC contest, the Cats have allowed between 5.1-6.1 yards per carry.

For Tennessee, the answer to the certainty question has become the defense. It’s not surprising when Jeremy Pruitt is your head coach, but the way it’s happened? After getting sliced and diced by Georgia State, the Vols have rallied to 26th in SP+ defense. If Tennessee earns bowl eligibility, it will likely come because the Vols finish the regular season with a Top 25 defense. And that rally isn’t necessarily on the shoulders of a breakout superstar (no disrespect to Bryce Thompson’s three interceptions against UAB). The Vols are simply getting better play from almost everyone on that side of the ball: good, old-fashioned player development. Remember that? It’s a terrific sign for the program going forward.

It’s also a particularly good sign against Kentucky. Tennessee struggled against Kyle Trask, Jake Fromm, and Tua Tagovailoa. Stopping players like that might be a conversation for Missouri. But that’s not an option for Kentucky. And at this point, I think we can safely say that if you’re not getting above average or better play at quarterback, the Vol defense can have its way with you:

QBCmpAttPctYdsYPATDINTSacks
Trask202871.4%29310.5202
Fromm242982.8%2889.9200
Tua111291.7%15512.9011
TOTALS556979.7%73610.7413
Ellington GSU112445.8%1395.8202
Wilson BYU192965.5%2328.0104
UTC92634.6%762.9040
Shrader MSU51050.0%797.9117
Stevens MSU61154.5%676.102
Jones ALA61154.5%726.5001
Hilinski USC285154.9%3196.3103
Johnston UAB112250.0%1366.2033
TOTALS9518451.6%11206.151020

(I know, bad memories, but consider how this list looks even better if we take away a single BYU completion.)

Maybe Brian Maurer comes out and takes the torch of present and future quarterback play once more. Maybe the offensive line is more healthy and the Vols can run with more success against a Kentucky defense that’s struggled to stop it.

But no matter what, the way Tennessee’s defense has forced all but the three best quarterbacks it has faced into a plethora of bad decisions? That’s very good news no matter who the Vols or Wildcats send out to take the first snap Saturday night. Tennessee has been rolling four weeks in a row. But if Kentucky’s bye week and Tennessee’s sixth-straight affair lead to ugliness, this defense now has a history of making the opposition look bad enough for the Vols to escape with victory.

The Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game: 2019 Week 11

It’s Friday before Gameday, and that means it’s time for the Gameday on Rocky Top Guessing Game. If you’ve played before, you know the deal, and you can skip to the questions below. If not, catch up here.

Let’sa go!

  1. Submit your answers to our questions below.
  2. Click the “Submit” button.
  3. Copy and paste your answers in the comments below.

Good luck!

Will the Vols cover against Kentucky?

Tennessee opened as a 2.5-point underdog to the Kentucky Wildcats this week, and since then it’s moved to Vols -1. So . . . will the Vols cover against Kentucky? Here’s what the GRT Statsy Preview Machine has to say and whether I think it’s right this week.

The SPM’s performance so far in 2019

The SPM rebounded this week with its second-best week of the season after a sub-50% Week 9. For the past five weeks, it’s done this: 56.52%, 55.10%, 63.93%, 45.45%, and 63.04%. The breakdown this week: 29-17 (63.04%), which is for all games. When the difference between the SPM spread and the Vegas spread was 9 or more (the “confidence threshold”), the SPM was 10-4 (71.43%), and when the difference was between 9 and 14 (the “confidence range”), the SPM was 8-3 (72.73%).

For the season, the SPM is now 252-234 (51.85%) overall, 109-84 (56.48%) over the confidence threshold, and 63-35 (64.29%) in the confidence range.

For the fourth week in a row, the SPM got the Tennessee game wrong, although we knew not to trust it. The SPM isn’t the only system whiffing on the Vols, though. As Will has pointed out several times in several places, even Vegas has been really wrong on the Tennessee all season long.

So what does the SPM have to say about the Tennessee-Kentucky game this week?

Vols-Wildcats

From the perspective of Tennessee

Tennessee’s points:

  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.7
  • Kentucky scoring defense for the season: 21.3

The Kentucky scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • UAB 17.5
  • South Carolina 25

Tennessee scored 30 points against UAB and 41 points against South Carolina. That’s 167% of what those teams usually give up.

The SPM still doesn’t know who UAB really is, so I would normally be inclined to ignore the Blazers as a comp, but the South Carolina number by itself pretty much gives the same result. So . . . the SPM estimates 35.5 points for Tennessee against Kentucky.

Kentucky’s points:

  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 24.1
  • Kentucky scoring offense for the season: 21.3

The Kentucky scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Tennessee opponent(s):

  • BYU 25.5
  • UAB 27

UAB scored 7 on Tennessee and BYU scored 29. That’s 69% of what those teams usually score. Taken together, the SPM estimates 14.7 points for Kentucky against the Vols. This is probably low, as the SPM is still confused about who UAB really is.

Estimated score: Tennessee 35.5, Kentucky 14.7

From the perspective of Kentucky

Kentucky’s points:

  • Kentucky scoring offense for the season: 21.3
  • Tennessee scoring defense for the season: 24.1

The Tennessee scoring defense is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s) (FBS only):

  • South Carolina 25
  • Toledo 28

Kentucky scored 7 points against South Carolina and 38 against Toledo, which is 85% of what those teams usually give up. Thus, the SPM estimates 20.5 points for Kentucky against the Vols.

Tennessee’s points:

  • Kentucky scoring defense for the season: 21.3
  • Tennessee scoring offense for the season: 24.7

The Tennessee scoring offense is most similar to the following prior Kentucky opponent(s):

  • Eastern Michigan 26.2
  • Arkansas 22.7

Kentucky allowed 20 points to Arkansas and 17 to Eastern Michigan. That’s 76% of what those teams usually score, so the SPM estimates 18.8 points for Tennessee against Kentucky.

Estimated score: Kentucky 20.5, Tennessee 18.8

SPM Final Estimates

Throw it in, cook it up, take a peek:

SPM Final estimated score: Tennessee 27.1, Kentucky 17.6

SPM Final estimated spread: Tennessee -9.5

Difference between the SPM and the Vegas opening spread): 12

That spread difference of 12 is right in the sweet spot that would normally be in our favorite “confidence range.” But so far this season, the numbers have been outright defamatory when it comes to the Vols. So while the machine is confident, I remain skeptical both on the actual score estimate and even more so on the level of confidence it’s spitting out.

Eyeball adjustments

I’m mostly comfortable with the comps for the Vols points from their perspective. As I said, I wouldn’t trust UAB as a comp except that the South Carolina comp says the same thing. The SPM’s only giving the Vols 19 points from Kentucky’s perspective, but I trust the South Carolina comp more than Kentucky’s results against Arkansas and Eastern Michigan. Still, 35 points seems high, especially since there were two special teams scores against the Gamecocks, so I’m thinking more like 28.

I don’t like Kentucky’s points from Tennessee’s perspective, as the number resulting from the UAB comp (26%) is too low, but the number resulting from the BYU comp (114%) is too high. I like the comps from Kentucky’s perspective better, as they include common opponent South Carolina, so I’m going with 21 points for the Wildcats.

So, my eyeball-adjusted prediction is Tennessee 28, Kentucky 21. Yeah, I like the Vols to win outright and cover. Am I confident about this? Nope.

Other predictions from other systems

As I said before, the Vols opened as 2.5-point underdogs but are now one-point favorites. With an over/under of 41, that translates to something like Tennessee 21, Kentucky 20.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 42.8% chance of winning.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ likes the Vols 25-23, and gives them a 55% chance of winning. That’s picking the Vols to cover.

SP+ finished 25-21-1 (54%) last week and is still at 55% for the season.

As I said earlier, the SPM is now 252-234 (51.85%) overall for the season and 63-35 (64.29%) in the confidence range.

Bottom line

The SPM and I both like the Vols to win and cover against Kentucky this week.

What do y’all think?

College Football TV Schedule: Week 11

The Tennessee Volunteers kick off against the Kentucky Wildcats at 7:30 p.m. this Saturday on the SEC Network, but that’s just the capper on what should be an awesome week of college football. The sparks come early and often as there are a handful of games each weeknight heading into the weekend. That’s when the thing catches fire, and it does so right at noon on Saturday and rages all the live long day.

Here’s when and where to find the games that matter most to Vols fans, along with some suggestions on how and why to watch them.

The list curated just for Vols fans is up first, but there’s a full schedule following that so you can curate your own if you like.

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Miami (OH) Ohio 8:00 PM ESPN2 Live It's football

Thursday, November 7, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Louisiana Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ESPNU Channel Hop It's football
Temple South Florida 8:00 PM ESPN Channel Hop It's football

Friday, November 8, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
Washington Oregon State 10:30 PM FS1 Live It's football

Gameday, November 9, 2019

Away Home Time TV How Why
NOON
#5 Penn State #13 Minnesota 12:00 PM ABC Live / Channel Hop Top 15 matchup
Vanderbilt #10 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN DVR / Channel Hop Future Vols opponent
AFTERNOON
#1 LSU #2 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS Live No. 1 vs. No. 2
EVENING
Missouri #6 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN Live until Vols, then DVR Future Vols opponent
Tennessee Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN Live Go Vols!

Hoo boy, this could be an awesome day of college football. We jump right into the fire with a Top 15 matchup of unbeatens No. 5 Penn State and No. 13 Minnesota in the noon slot. Go Gophers. That time slot also features future Vols opponent Vanderbilt against former Vols opponent No. 10 Florida, so check in on that when the Lions/Gophers action breaks and DVR it for scouting after the dust has settled.

The noon fire converts into a foundry at 3:30 when No. 1 LSU takes on No. 2 Alabama on CBS at 3:30. It may not be for all the marbles, but it’s for a bunch of them. If you’re interested and/or a multi-tasker, there’s another Top 20 matchup on at 4:00 on Fox featuring No. 18 Iowa and No. 16 Wisconsin. I’m the former but not the latter, so I didn’t include this on the recommended viewing list. Both of my eyes will be intensely focused on Tuscaloosa.

But pace yourself, my Big Orange friends, as there’s still TV to watch. At 7:00 on ESPN, future Vols opponent Missouri takes on former Vols opponent No. 6 Georgia. Watch this live, but only for a half hour. Then hit the record button and switch over to Tennessee-Kentucky at 7:30 on the SEC Network and hope the Vols take care of business against the Wildcats.

Enjoy!

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Date Away Home Time TV
11/5/19 Kent State Toledo 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/5/19 Ball State Western Michigan 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/6/19 Miami (OH) Ohio 8:00 PM ESPN2
11/7/19 Louisiana Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/7/19 Temple South Florida 8:00 PM ESPN
11/8/19 UCF Tulsa 7:00 PM
11/8/19 Washington Oregon State 10:30 PM FS1
11/9/19 Maryland #3 Ohio State 12:00 PM FOX
11/9/19 #5 Penn State #13 Minnesota 12:00 PM ABC
11/9/19 Vanderbilt #10 Florida 12:00 PM ESPN
11/9/19 #11 Baylor TCU 12:00 PM FS1
11/9/19 East Carolina #23 SMU 12:00 PM ESPNU
11/9/19 UMass Army 12:00 PM CBSSN
11/9/19 Western Kentucky Arkansas 12:00 PM SECN
11/9/19 Texas Tech West Virginia 12:00 PM ESPN2
11/9/19 Purdue Northwestern 12:00 PM BTN
11/9/19 Florida State Boston College 12:00 PM ACCN
11/9/19 Georgia Tech Virginia 12:30 PM ACCNX
11/9/19 UTSA Old Dominion 2:00 PM ESPN3
11/9/19 Air Force New Mexico 2:00 PM
11/9/19 Charlotte UTEP 3:00 PM ESPN+
11/9/19 Stanford Colorado 3:00 PM PAC12
11/9/19 South Alabama Texas State 3:00 PM ESPN3
11/9/19 #1 LSU #2 Alabama 3:30 PM CBS
11/9/19 UConn #17 Cincinnati 3:30 PM CBSSN
11/9/19 #20 Kansas State Texas 3:30 PM ESPN
11/9/19 #22 Wake Forest Virginia Tech 3:30 PM ACCN
11/9/19 Georgia Southern Troy 3:30 PM ESPN+
11/9/19 Louisville Miami 3:30 PM ESPN2
11/9/19 USC Arizona State 3:30 PM ABC
11/9/19 UAB Southern Mississippi 3:30 PM NFL
11/9/19 Illinois Michigan State 3:30 PM FS1
11/9/19 #18 Iowa #16 Wisconsin 4:00 PM FOX
11/9/19 New Mexico State Ole Miss 4:00 PM SECN
11/9/19 North Texas Louisiana Tech 4:00 PM
11/9/19 Georgia State UL Monroe 5:00 PM ESPN+
11/9/19 Florida International Florida Atlantic 6:00 PM
11/9/19 Missouri #6 Georgia 7:00 PM ESPN
11/9/19 Washington State California 7:00 PM PAC12
11/9/19 Utah State Fresno State 7:00 PM CBSSN
11/9/19 Appalachian State South Carolina 7:00 PM ESPN2
11/9/19 #4 Clemson NC State 7:30 PM ABC
11/9/19 #15 Notre Dame Duke 7:30 PM ACCN
11/9/19 Tennessee Kentucky 7:30 PM SECN
11/9/19 Liberty BYU 7:30 PM ESPNU
11/9/19 Iowa State #9 Oklahoma 8:00 PM FOX
11/9/19 Wyoming #21 Boise State 10:15 PM ESPN
11/9/19 Nevada #24 San Diego State 10:30 PM ESPN2
11/9/19 San Jose State Hawai'i 11:00 PM