Category Archives: Football

The first couple of weeks of a college football season, you’re pretty much just guessing what’s in the box. You don’t begin to actually know until you have two or three games in the books. Even then, the picture is a bit murky and continues to change as the season progresses.

So what do we actually have, right now, compared to the last couple of years? I wanted to know, so I dusted off our old color-coded look at the Vols’ national rankings in each of the official NCAA stat categories.

Offense

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

The run game on offense appears to be about the same as the season-long numbers from last year, but the passing game is waaaaay off and dragging down the overall offensive numbers. That doesn’t really tell us anything that our eyeballs haven’t. The odd thing, though, is that total passing yards isn’t that far off that of Heupel’s first season. And yet that 2021 team was still able to score points at Heupel’s usual clip. A slightly better run game, better efficiency on first and third downs, and a huge disparity in passing yards per completion seem to explain.

Defense

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Is the defense actually better? It looks like yeah, mostly. The pass defense was a glaring problem the last couple of years and was probably the offseason focus this summer. But so far, it looks like maybe we’ve robbed the run defense a bit to shore up the pass defense. It doesn’t appear to be a one-for-one trade, though, as the gains against the pass are greater than the losses against the run.

Special Teams

If the table above doesn’t display well, try using this link.

The team has stepped backward on punt and kickoff return defense, and the punting game is, so far, no better than last year.

Turnovers and Penalties

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So this is interesting. Two seasons and three games in, it’s looking like Heupel’s teams are just generally terrible at penalties. I would not have guessed that of a team regularly trotting out one of the nation’s top offenses. Perhaps seeing a breakdown of offensive and defensive penalties would shed some light on that. But it’s both good news and bad news. Bad news, because you don’t want to hamstring yourself, especially in crucial games against good teams. Good news, because penalties don’t seem to be the main problem for this squad so far.

The team is suffering a bit forcing turnovers.

I don’t know why I keep underestimating The Swamp. It seems like every couple of years I’m thinking (at some point, whether before, during, or just before I’m reminded yet again that it doesn’t always matter) that Tennessee is the better team and it should follow that the Vols should win. I have a hazy recollection of bad things happening against Florida, especially in their habitat, but a curse? Eh, not really a thing. Like Bigfoot, Yeti, Loch Ness, the Bermuda Triangle. Make believe.

And then it makes me believe it again. Giving up a late 63-yard touchdown on 4th and 14 for the go-ahead score? Allowing a receiver to get behind a prevent defense in the end zone on the last play of the game to win? Call it self-fulfilling prophecy. Call it The Weirdness. Call it simple home field advantage. Call it whatever you like, but next time, Joel, remember that it’s real. (Side note: I went looking for the link where I called this phenomenon The Weirdness and got lost in a rabbit hole on Podcast Episode 155 where Will and I go on a five-minute tangent about donuts at around the 5:00 mark. And Will didn’t say that word, by the way. The translation bot disparages our beloved pastor.)

Anyway, the 2023 edition of The Swamp Thing features a Vols squad attempting to play with one arm (and sometimes two) tied behind their metaphorical (and sometimes not metaphorical!) backs.

After a beautiful 71-yard, six-play touchdown drive to begin the game, Tennessee’s offense gnawed off an arm with a series of pre-snap penalties that killed three consecutive drives. Here’s the rap sheet:

• Drive 2: False start on the second 1st and 10. Never recovered. Punt. Afterwards, the Gators ate 7.5 minutes of clock and scored a touchdown.
• Drive 3: False start on the first play of the drive. Pressure (435 pounds of it!) on 2nd and 12 resulted in an interception, which was returned 39 yards. An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty at the end of the play moved the Gators to within 9 yards of the goal line. Touchdown, Gators.
• Drive 4: Another false start, again on the very first play of the drive. Sack on 2nd and 12. Never recovered. Punt. Gators went 55 yards for another touchdown.

After the first, the Vols’ remaining drives ended in three punts and an interception. Three of those four drives were killed by pre-snap penalties that smelled distinctly of swamp water. Josh Heupel’s high-flying offense can score points in buckets when it gets ahead of the chains and can leverage momentum to reach cruising altitude. But when it gets off schedule, it has trouble just getting off the ground. It’s like the opening drive conceived a confidence like that of the Black Knight in Monty Python’s Holy Grail. I’M INVINCIBLE!

Let’s talk about that . . . tackle?

Speaking of the Black Knight, there was also a moment where the defense decided to play without any arms whatsoever:

Pay close attention to Kamal Hadden (#5) https://t.co/jICO74F5PI

— Jake (@JakeAndBall) September 16, 2023

Oh, boy. That is one of the most egregiously inept efforts at tackling that I have ever seen. Actually, it looks more like the dude just plain decided not to do it.

When my oldest daughter was super young (maybe 5?), we put her in a church soccer camp thing. I don’t know what we were thinking. At that age, she thought she was a horse. Or Simba from the Lion King, depending on the day.

If you’ve ever watched 5-year-olds on a soccer field, you know that it’s basically a herd of baby animals kicking each other. They have no understanding of spacing or passing or strategy. Their goal is simply to find the ball and kick it. The 5-stars at that age understand that they’re supposed to kick it in a certain direction, but that’s about as far as they get with strategy in that division.

But even that wasn’t in my daughter’s playbook. Her entire strategy consisted of just running after the herd. Man, she was good at it, too. She had a nose for the back of the pack, identifying it and seeking it out with an Olympic single-minded purposefulness. If at any point the tide shifted and she suddenly found herself next to the ball in the middle of a blender of shin-hacking appendages, she would instantly spin and sprint toward safety at the end of the line. If they were giving out nicknames, hers would have been “Caboose.”

Watching #5 on that play reminded me of watching my daughter on the soccer field trying to avoid actually playing soccer.

I love my daughter. It turns out, she’s just not cut out for soccer. She’s 27 now, and the good news is that she no longer thinks she’s a horse.

Anyway, I love these college football kids, too, almost as if they were my own. I know it’s not the usual way to root for a sports team, and I’m not judging anyone for doing it differently. But just from my own perspective as a father of three daughters (27, 21, and 12), I view these guys as people to love. I want to see them grow in maturity, strength of mind and character, and faith. I want them to learn discipline, to work hard, to trust teammates, to be a reliable brother and friend, to succeed and learn how to handle that success, and to learn how to deal with failure when it inevitably comes. When a kid has great success and earns the adoration of the masses, I hope the coaches keep him grounded. When a kid makes a mistake and is relentlessly reminded of it through every data feed on his phone, I hope that the coaching staff will balance out the good work of natural consequences with the right amount of constructive criticism spoken in love from people he actually knows and trusts.

There’s no getting around it. That was a terrible effort, and #5 is quickly developing a reputation for being an especially poor tackler (although I will point out that he was the team’s second-leading tackler Saturday night.) He’s certainly hearing about it now, both from his inner circle of coaches and teammates and from all corners of the internet, including this site.

I assume that his goal is to play in the NFL, and I am rooting for him to accomplish all that his heart desires and to grow in all situations, good and bad. I don’t know him, but if I did, I would give him a hug today. And I’d tell him to use his arms. And I would say it with a wink so that he knew that I was joking but also not joking. Joking, because this is football and it’s really not that important in the grand scheme of things. And not joking, because I am really rooting for him to achieve his goals.

I’m not sure why CBS would have chosen Georgia-South Carolina over Tennessee-Florida for its 3:30 time slot today, but I’m glad they did. This is the last year of CBS getting first dibs, by the way. For big games, I’ll miss the music, but not much else. Verne hasn’t been calling those games for seven years now. I like Nessler, but the play-by-play guys haven’t been the issue for me. I don’t even remember (and can’t find) the color analyst before Danielson, but whoever it was, I liked him better. 🙂 And no, it’s not because Danielson says bad things about my team; it’s because he’s rude to his play-by-play, talking over him, correcting him, etc. Oh, look! I’m on a tangent!

Anyway, we have the prime time 7:00 p.m. ESPN slot with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstriet tonight for the big Vols-Gators game, so woo. As appetizers, we also have a handful of noon games for ranked teams we’d like to see upset and the aforementioned South Carolina-Georgia game on CBS at 3:30. Will is likely rooting for Georgia in this one because he wants both teams to be undefeated when they meet in November. I’ll be pulling for the Gamecocks because I want to win the East and I’d like to have some cushion, please and thank you. Who do y’all root for in this one?

The full GRT college football TV schedule for the week is at the bottom of the post, but first is our suggested viewing schedule curated just for Vols fans.

Gameday, September 16, 2023

Full searchable college football TV schedule

Here’s the entire searchable and sortable college football TV schedule for this week:

Peyton Manning threw 9,380 passes in his NFL career. In the modern era, here’s the rest of that list for quarterbacks who finished their college career at Tennessee (via Pro Football Reference):

• Pat Ryan had 657 career attempts and made 19 starts, including Week 1 for the New York Jets in 1984.
• Heath Shuler was the third overall pick in the 1994 draft, making 22 starts for Washington and then New Orleans as injuries took their toll. Shuler had 593 career pass attempts.
• Bobby Scott had 500 career attempts for New Orleans, including a Week 1 start in 1976, and spent much of his career backing up Archie Manning.

Next on the list: Josh Dobbs, who enters the 2023 season with 85 career attempts.

He’ll also enter Week 1 as the projected starter for the Arizona Cardinals:

Sources: The #AZCardinals are expected have Josh Dobbs as their starting QB this week, with rookie Clayton Tune getting backup reps. They’ll evaluate the situation each week, but this is how it begins. pic.twitter.com/eXqXUFj7qv

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 6, 2023

He’ll join Manning, Ryan, Shuler, Scott, and Dewey Warren (1968 with Cincinnati) as former Vols to make a Week 1 start at quarterback in the modern era. That being the list, he’s the first Vol to do it since Manning, and the second since Shuler, who made his last Week 1 start in 1997.

Back in those days, Tennessee had an incredible line of quarterbacks who carried the program to new heights from 1989-2007. Shuler, Manning, Tee Martin and Erik Ainge were all drafted, while Andy Kelly won two SEC titles and Casey Clausen made two trips to Atlanta.

At this position, the Vols how have the potential for a similar lineage. Hendon Hooker continues to recover from his knee injury in November, but could have opportunities in Detroit with Jared Goff’s contract soon to expire. On campus, when Virginia punted the Vols back to the seven yard line on Saturday, I know many of us were thinking, “…I mean, let’s just see if he can. Like, just give Joe a shot on first down, and if he can’t throw it 93 yards, it’s 2nd-and-10.” And behind him is one of the highest-rated prospects the Vols have ever signed.

The mark of a great program is the way it isn’t beholden to one great individual, or one great team. It’s what we’ve seen from Rick Barnes and company in basketball, even after Grant Williams and company made their way to the NBA. And it’s what Tennessee will have a chance to do at quarterback under Josh Heupel.

Between the good old days and present glory was a long wilderness, in which no one shined a brighter light than Dobbs. (Shout out as well to Tyler Bray, who had a nine-year career as an NFL backup). Tennessee’s on-field success last fall was so transformative, it helped us view the past in healthier ways as well. And now, into the future on Sundays, Dobbs has the opportunity to continue to grow his legacy among Tennessee fans who loved watching him get his shot with the Titans late last fall.

From an NFL standpoint, Dobbs is already one of the five best quarterbacks to call Tennessee home. And he’s earned himself another opportunity now, with Kyler Murray unavailable until at least Week 5, to make more good memories – not just in the past, but in the present.

What do we do when we get what we want?

That’s been a moving target these past 15 years. Some seasons it was bowl eligibility, others just a fresh start. Just to play at all in 2020, which weirdly seems so long ago now.

Above all, of course, was hope. Always hope. Always here, when the distance to kickoff can be measured in hours. And quickly gone in many seasons for many teams.

Tennessee cycled through stages of hope in the post-Fulmer era, which at several points crossed over into stages of grief. I will still submit that the entire program itself felt particularly vulnerable during a pair of unique coaching-and-athletic-director changes.

And now here, 60something hours from Nashville, Tennessee carries the kind of hope that comes with a receipt.

In those 60 hours, it will probably feel more distant and less necessary to talk about the past, because at that point “the past” becomes 2022. That past enabled this present. And this present is real good.

I was a history major; sometimes I still can’t help myself. One of my favorite games from childhood was the last time Tennessee and Virginia met, the Sugar Bowl following the 1990 season. I was nine years old, and Tennessee scored touchdowns on its final three possessions, the last in the final minute, to win 23-22. It was great.

It was also 33 years ago, which would be like someone telling nine-year-old me about something from the 1957 campaign. I’m pretty sure my dad, who was five years old then, doesn’t even remember that one. I’m pretty sure my son, who is five years old now, has much to look forward to.

He’s got a Joe Milton t-shirt jersey. That’s part of the good of the world we live in now, where he can wear not just the QB’s number but his name, and his cousin can support Jonas Aidoo in the same fashion. They’ve got Ronald Acuña Jr. in their closets too, an incredible time to be in the Vols/Braves demographic. My biggest sports crisis is whether to buy him a new Grant Williams jersey now that he’s no longer in Boston.

This childlike way is free from the burdens of how we got here, it just enjoys the moment. And a healthy present moment can also establish healthier connections to the past. Because our sons and daughters could also buy a Josh Dobbs Arizona Cardinals jersey right now. If he indeed earns the Week 1 start, he’ll become just the third quarterback who finished his career at Tennessee to start a season opener since Pat Ryan.

Dobbs and his teams lived the highs and lows of those cycles of hope and grief more than most these past 15 years. There are some incredible line items on those seasons. And now it feels like those moments are even more free.

That’s what hope does: not just the present, but the past.

And now, in 60 hours, the future becomes the present.

There’s a beautiful interconnectedness in all of this; always is with sports. It’s always about more than just winning.

And at the same time, as we’ve shared a lot in talking about last season, the real prize in all of this isn’t winning the national championship, but being able to.

Maybe there will always be an idiot optimist in us who will need counseling if we go 14-1. Maybe. Maybe we’ll get good enough for long enough again that we’ll have the luxury of taking things for granted.

But at the start of the season, Tennessee is right where we belong: back in the championship conversation.

Make yourself at home.

What do we do when we get what we want?

Be grateful.

And enjoy every second of it.

Go Vols.

Things are slower over here these days, and I just kind of assumed the picks contest would be something we let go of…but I’ve just come to realize how much I just really enjoy running this thing. Some of my oldest friends, who may even still be floating around this site, can tell you about versions of this contest we ran over long, long, l-o-n-g email threads back in the late 90s. I don’t know how to do a football season without one. Turns out, don’t really want to either.

So: welcome to the 2023 Gameday on Rocky Top picks contest! The link will take you to Fun Office Pools, where we’ve run this game with confidence points for years and years. Same rules apply, as always: we pick 20 games each week straight up, you assign 20 points to the outcome you’re most confident in, 1 point to the outcome you’re least confident in, and away we go. Picks are due by kickoff of each game, and even if you fall behind and/or asleep at the wheel, you’ll earn just one point lower than the lowest total score that week.

Any questions, holler in the comments. Here’s the Week 1 slate, in all its glory:

Thursday, August 31

• NC State at UConn – 7:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
• Florida at #14 Utah – 8:00 PM – ESPN
• Nebraska at Minnesota – 8:00 PM – FOX

Friday, September 1

• Louisville at Georgia Tech – 7:30 PM – ESPN
• Stanford at Hawaii – 11:00 PM – CBS Sports Network

Saturday, September 2

• Virginia vs #12 Tennessee (Nashville) – 12:00 PM – ABC
• Colorado at #17 TCU – 12:00 PM – FOX
• ETSU at Jacksonville State – 2:00 PM – ESPN+
• Boise State at #10 Washington – 3:30 PM – ABC
• South Florida at Western Kentucky – 3:30 PM – CBS Sports Network
• UTSA at Houston – 7:00 PM – FS1
• West Virginia at #7 Penn State – 7:30 PM – NBC
• #21 North Carolina vs South Carolina (Charlotte) – 7:30 PM – ABC
• South Alabama at #24 Tulane – 8:00 PM – ESPNU
• Old Dominion at Virginia Tech – 8:00 PM – ACC Network
• Coastal Carolina at UCLA – 10:30 PM – ESPN

Sunday, September 3

• Northwestern at Rutgers – 12:00 PM – CBS
• #18 Oregon State at San Jose State – 3:30 PM – CBS
• #5 LSU vs #8 Florida State (Orlando) – 7:30 PM – ABC

Monday, September 4

• #9 Clemson at Duke – 8:00 PM – ESPN

In 2021, the thing Tennessee was statistically worst at was sack rate allowed. The Vols surrendered 44 sacks, 124th nationally, and UT quarterbacks went down on 10.48% of their pass attempts. That percentage was the worst in Knoxville during the post-Fulmer era.

The 2021 offensive line sent Cade Mays to the NFL, but brought everyone else back. We thought if the Vols could just be even a little better here, it could make a huge difference in the program’s overall progress.

And they were far more than a little better in 2022.

With just 27 sacks allowed on 438 passing plays from Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton, last year Tennessee had a sack rate of 6.16%. That number was in line with what Tennessee’s offense was able to accomplish in keeping Josh Dobbs upright in 2015 and 2016. And it helped produce one of the best offenses in school history in 2022.

Where might similar progress be found for 2023?

When you win 11 games and your program has made more progress in two years (via SP+) than any other SEC team in the last 30 years? It’s a short list.

Outside of the tempo-infused stats, last year the thing Tennessee was statistically worst at was allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete a high percentage of their passes. Opponents hit on 62.6% of their throws last season, 97th nationally. Here again, so much overall progress has been made at Tennessee, you don’t have to go back very far to find something worse: the 2020 team allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes, and the 2018 team was at 63.0%.

We looked at this two off-seasons ago, when it represented the most statistical progress the 2021 team could make. The national average in completion percentage has leveled off in the 61% range the last three seasons, still up from what we saw in college football in 2013-17. Top 10 teams in this department now complete around two-thirds of their passes.

Using that as a benchmark, here’s every Power 5 quarterback to complete 66.7+% of their passes with at least 20 completions against Tennessee in the post-Fulmer era:

Year	QB	Team	PCT	YPA
2022	Jayden Daniels	LSU	71.1%	6.7
2022	Bryce Young	Alabama	67.3%	8.8
2022	Spencer Rattler	South Carolina	81.1%	11.8
2021	Kenny Pickett	Pittsburgh	66.7%	7.9
2021	Emory Jones	Florida	77.8%	7.7
2021	Bryce Young	Alabama	72.1%	8.6
2020	Mac Jones	Alabama	80.6%	12.5
2020	Kyle Trask	Florida	71.4%	8.8
2020	Kellen Mond	Texas A&M	81.3%	8.8
2019	Kyle Trask	Florida	71.4%	10.5
2019	Jake Fromm	Georgia	82.8%	9.9
2018	Will Grier	West Virginia	73.5%	12.6
2018	Drew Lock	Missouri	70.0%	8.6
2018	Kyle Shurmur	Vanderbilt	88.6%	10.5
2017	Jalen Hurts	Alabama	66.7%	10.1
2016	Jarod Evans	Virginia Tech	71.4%	7.6
2015	Jake Coker	Alabama	77.8%	9.1
2013	Marcus Mariota	Oregon	69.7%	13.8
2013	A. Carta-Samuels	Vanderbilt	77.8%	6.7
2012	Aaron Murray	Georgia	76.9%	11
2012	Connor Shaw	South Carolina	68.8%	11.1
2010	Mike Hartline	Kentucky	70.5%	6.2

You can see how this played out three different ways for Tennessee’s defense in 2022. At LSU, Jayden Daniels completed 32 of 45 passes, but the Vols kept everything in front of them as their lead swelled. With Alabama, the Vols went shootout mode (against the eventual number one overall pick) and came out on top. And of course, at South Carolina, it went wrong on both sides of the ball.

One big difference here: the Vols sacked Jayden Daniels five times. They only got Bryce Young once, Spencer Rattler once. Of the 22 quarterbacks on the above list, how many got sacked more than twice?

• 2022 Jayden Daniels at LSU: 5 sacks
• 2018 Kyle Shurmur vs Vanderbilt: 3 sacks
• 2016 Jerod Evans vs Virginia Tech: 3 sacks
• 2015 Jake Coker at Alabama: 5 sacks

That’s a pair of comfortable wins in huge games, and as close at Tennessee came to the Crimson Tide in 15 years (plus the weirdness of the season-ending loss to Vanderbilt in 2018). Even as college football grows in passing efficiency and the Vols continue to face elite SEC quarterbacks, getting to the passer can make an enormous difference here.

In that regard, the Vols weren’t bad at all last year: 31 sacks, 42nd nationally. Tennessee dropped quarterbacks from Pittsburgh, LSU, Kentucky, and Clemson at least four times each, making a big difference in each of those ranked wins.

Here’s the opportunity: Byron Young had seven of the 16 sacks in those four wins (talk about bigtime players in bigtime games: that means every one of his sacks came in those four games last year).

Who steps up next?

In the midst of all these conversations that come with the 11-win territory – can the next QB shine as bright as the last QB, if so who’s catching all those touchdowns this time, etc. – don’t miss the few but meaningful ways this team could make progress over last season. If Tennessee is just one step better here, makes life just a little less comfortable for opposing quarterbacks (and/or the secondary makes life just a little less comfortable for receivers), Tennessee’s defense can make an significant difference in the ultimate outcome for the 2023 Vols.

How to make progress over last season is a beautifully short list.

Finding that progress anyway would be even sweeter.

Go Vols.

Since the AP poll expanded to 25 teams in 1989, Tennessee has been ranked in the preseason poll 24 times. That includes yesterday, when the Vols debuted at #12.

In the continuing adventures of “being back”, if you take the average of those 24 appearances over the past 35 seasons, Tennessee’s average preseason ranking is…12th. Right at home.

Here’s the full distribution:

Vols in the Preseason AP Poll, 1989-2023

1
2	1996	1999
3	2005
4
5	1997	2002
6
7
8	1990	1995	2001
9	2016
10	1993	1998
11	1991
12	2000	2003	2023
13	1994
14	2004
15	2007
16
17
18	2008
19
20
21	1992
22
23	2006
24
25	2015	2017	2020

The Vols now have 18 appearances in the preseason Top 15 in that same span. And only two of those came in the last 15 years: ninth in 2016, and 12th for 2023.

From 1990-2007, Tennessee was ranked in the Top 15 in preseason 16 times in 18 years. It’s the 8-15 range where the program really lived in the 90s, with just five preseason Top 5 appearances in those same years.

The Vols were unranked in last year’s preseason poll, just outside the Top 25. They moved up for the Week 2 game at Pitt, the first of six ranked wins last season, a program high.

As you know, some of the real joy last year – extending into right now – was Tennessee occupying a space it hasn’t in such a long time.

How many weeks have the Vols been ranked 12th or higher?

• 2023: Preseason (1)
• 2022: September 18 through final poll (13)
• 2016: Preseason, September 25 through October 10 (4)
• 2007: Final Poll (1)

The Vols show up more often once you go back to 2006, which is also the last time Tennessee was ranked in the poll every week (including preseason). But Tennessee hasn’t spent an entire season in the Top 12 (or Top 10) since 1999.

It’s only the preseason poll. But there remains much to be grateful for, and much to be excited about.

Soon.

How much progress can a program make in a coach’s first two years?

One of the things I’ve enjoyed playing with the most these past few weeks is Bill Connelly’s historical SP+ data. Using a simplified version of his SP+ formula based on points scored/points allowed, Connelly has a rating for every team, ever. Back in June, we used this to examine the greatness of 2022 in comparison to every other Tennessee team.

So how does what Tennessee did – making this much progress in just two years – compare to what we’ve seen from other new coaches?

Patience vs. Progress

I’m wrong a lot; the real disappointment is in being wrong in the least fun ways possible. A dozen years and several lifetimes ago, I wrote on how Tennessee’s ceiling in basketball would never be higher than it was under Bruce Pearl. Turns out, we’re not always good at eyeballing that distance.

It’s true to the floor as well, though with football I’m still not sure there was a healthier way to be in the past few years. Considering the unique vulnerability the program faced in the transition from Butch Jones to Jeremy Pruitt, then the month we spent at the end of 2020 into 2021 not knowing if Pruitt would be retained? All of that, on top of 13 years of varying levels of frustration, made it seem like the healthiest path was patience, with a heaping dose of honesty and self-awareness.

And I still think that was right, given the circumstances. The missing piece of that awareness was how quickly things could, in fact, change.

It did not change by hiring the “sure thing” or seeking primarily to win the press conference. And there’s also an overall awareness college football is still trying to wrap itself around. The one where TCU goes 5-7 with losses to Oklahoma State and Iowa State by a combined 80 points, then plays for the national championship the very next year with a new coach.

There’s little that is fully understood about NIL and the transfer portal. It certainly seems to have created the possibility of an accelerated rebuild at a number of different places.

But all of that to say this: in historical SP+, Tennessee made more progress in the first two years under Josh Heupel than any other team in the SEC since divisional play began.

Most Improved Programs in Historical SP+ in a Coach’s First Two Seasons (SEC, 1992-2022)

1. Tennessee, Josh Heupel (+30.1 in SP+ from 2020 to 2022)
2. Vanderbilt, James Franklin (+27.5)
3. Arkansas, Sam Pittman (+27.1)
4. Ole Miss, Houston Nutt (+25.5)
5. Florida, Dan Mullen (+24.8)

(full Top 25 at the bottom of this post)

Consider the company this keeps.

Florida under Mullen is a tiny version of the names we’ll find much further down the list. Nick Saban and Kirby Smart are obviously two of the best in the business. But they also stepped in at powerhouse programs with relative recent success. Alabama went 10-2 two years before Saban was hired. Georgia was 10-3 in Mark Richt’s final season. That kind of improvement led to multiple national championships on both counts…but because the starting point was higher, the program’s overall progress doesn’t rate as high on this particular list. Same rules apply for Steve Spurrier at South Carolina in following Lou Holtz; some version of this is what we would’ve been hoping for had Lane Kiffin stayed around for a second season, etc.

Mullen inherited a program that won the SEC East in 2015 and 2016, but hit a steep drop-off in 2017. The Gators went 4-7, losing to Georgia by 35 and Missouri by 29 on consecutive Saturdays. Jim McElwain was out, Dan Mullen was in, and Florida went 10-3 then 11-2 the next two seasons.

And of course, Mullen at Florida is a great example that nothing remains guaranteed; the Gators won the SEC East in 2020 and were the only team to play Alabama within two possessions. But in 2021 Mullen was out as Florida’s season spiraled.

Ole Miss under Houston Nutt is a good example of following a prolonged down period. Nutt followed Ed Oregron, who went 10-25 in three years in Oxford. He immediately turned things around with a pair of 9-4 seasons, but was fired two years later after going 4-8 then 2-10 (those wins were later vacated). In historical SP+, Orgeron’s first team and Nutt’s last team have the lowest ratings at Ole Miss in the modern era. I am far from the expert on Ole Miss (and stay tuned for a Hugh Freeze sighting), but the numbers obviously suggest a lack of sustainable growth for the program during those tenures.

That’s a good word for the current hope at Arkansas, where Sam Pittman took over following one of the lowest-rated seasons for any SEC program in the modern era. The 2019 Hogs went 2-10 and lost five games in a row by at least 27 points, one of them to Western Kentucky. Pittman started in the covid year, and while Arkansas went just 3-7, they lost to Auburn, LSU, and Missouri by a combined seven points.

At some point early in the 2021 season, I remember thinking how we’d be doing backflips for what Pittman accomplished at Arkansas in year two: a beatdown of Texas, then a 10-point win over #7 Texas A&M, and suddenly you’re ranked eighth. The Hogs finished 9-4 and won the Outback Bowl.

Is it sustainable growth? Last year Arkansas went 7-6 with four one-possession losses. When we play this exercise out over a coach’s first three years, you’ll see Pittman continues to be right at the top.

And we know better than most other programs about James Franklin at Vanderbilt. The Commodores are an apples-to-oranges comparison not just to Tennessee, but really any other program in this league; what Franklin was able to accomplish really only grows in stature when you look at both the coach and the program since then. What he did in Nashville is the off-the-top-of-your-head answer to which program made the most progress under a new coach.

And in historical SP+, Josh Heupel’s first two years at Tennessee top even that.

The 2020 season rates the lowest in the modern era at Tennessee, with the Vols at a -2.0 rating (points worse than the average team on a neutral field). In 2021, Tennessee finished at 15.7. Then last season, we jumped to 28.2. Play-for-play, the 2022 Vols rate as the third-best team in program history in historical SP+; they’re the only UT team with three ranked wins of three-plus possessions. From one of the lowest points, to one of the highest points, with a ton of uncertainty and pending NCAA sanctions and playing Alabama and Georgia every year, etc. etc.

The truth is, Tennessee could’ve gone 5-7 in Heupel’s first year, then 9-4 in year two, and we would’ve called it significant progress. And it would’ve been! We’d be excited right now to find out if Tennessee could take the next big step.

And instead, the Vols leaped into the national championship conversation in year two, and positioned themselves to stay there going forward.

Speaking of going forward:

Most Improved Programs in Historical SP+ in a Coach’s First Three Seasons (SEC, 1992-2022)

1. Ole Miss, Hugh Freeze (+29.3 in SP+ from 2011 to 2014)
2. Arkansas, Sam Pittman (+24.3)
3. Vanderbilt, James Franklin (+23.9)
4. South Carolina, Lou Holtz (+22.9)
5. Alabama, Nick Saban (+22.5)

If the Vols ended up level in 2023 compared to 2022, Josh Heupel would top this list as well. Being in position to win 11 games again would be an incredible accomplishment, of course. There remain no guarantees, but Tennessee is positioning itself to be in the championship conversation every season; that’s the real prize of all of this, to be in the hunt every year as the field prepares to expand.

What’s been done here is truly remarkable, and by this metric, beyond any progress in any other coach’s first two seasons in the expansion-era SEC.

So…where to next?

Go Vols.

Here’s the full Top 25 research on the first two years:

Team	Years	New Coach	SP+ Change
Tennessee	2020-2022	Josh Heupel	30.1
Vanderbilt	2010-2012	James Franklin	27.5
Arkansas	2019-2021	Sam Pittman	27.1
Ole Miss	2007-2009	Houston Nutt	25.5
Florida	2017-2019	Dan Mullen	24.8
Ole Miss	2011-2013	Hugh Freeze	22.8
Mississippi St	2008-2010	Dan Mullen	22.6
Auburn	2008-2010	Gene Chizik	21
South Carolina	2020-2022	Shane Beamer	20.1
Auburn	2012-2014	Gus Malzahn	19.6
Arkansas	1997-1999	Houston Nutt	19
South Carolina	1998-2000	Lou Holtz	18.6
LSU	1999-2001	Nick Saban	17.6
Kentucky	1996-1998	Hal Mumme	17.4
Auburn	1991-1993	Terry Bowden	17.3
Alabama	2000-2002	Dennis Franchione	16.5
LSU	1993-1995	Gerry DiNardo	16.1
Kentucky	2000-2002	Guy Morriss	15.9
Vanderbilt	2020-2022	Clark Lea	13.5
Kentucky	2012-2014	Mark Stoops	13.4
Ole Miss	2019-2021	Lane Kiffin	13.3
Auburn	1998-2000	Tommy Tuberville	12.8
South Carolina	2004-2006	Steve Spurrier	12.7
Georgia	2015-2017	Kirby Smart	12.2
Alabama	2006-2008	Nick Saban	11.8

Our family moved back to Knoxville a year ago now. I often joke that I need a side gig with the chamber of commerce, because I’m not sure anyone is happier to be here.

In that time, it’s been a delight to watch our church and our children grow. My son is getting ready to go to kindergarten; his sister just turned three. We took him to his first game at Neyland last fall, where Tennessee set the school record for total yardage. It won’t always be like this.

And in that same year, as you know and love, Tennessee returned to the national conversation in football, then finished off maybe their single greatest academic year in all sports. Everything is everything.

If you’ve followed along here or at Rocky Top Talk through the years, you’ve probably heard me talk about becoming a blogger around ten days after I became a pastor. It wasn’t anything I planned, I just moved away from Knoxville for the first time in my life, and more than anything, I missed talking about the Vols with my friends.

That was 17 years ago this month. And maybe it’s appropriate: that initial version of it, just me writing when there was time and interest with a small community of dedicated readers…that’s not too dissimilar from what this site is today.

So first, a word of thanks for all of those who’ve read the site(s) for any or all of these years.

And also a word to say: things are slowing down around here.

You probably knew that to some degree already; Joel and I have often said that “write what you want when you want” is what kept these blogs and their authors healthy all these years. I’ve been so grateful for the community at Gameday on Rocky Top these past six years after initially slowing down in leaving Rocky Top Talk.

And one of my favorite parts about the last year of success has been sharing some of those conversations – a few on this site, many more behind the scenes – with some of our old writing staff. We wrote at RTT for eight football seasons, nine in basketball. During those years, the football team won 52% of its games, the basketball team 58%.

And it was fun. I’m so grateful that it’s always been fun. 

It still is, of course. In some ways more than ever; winning, it turns out, is great!

Living in Knoxville, I’m just also finding a version of the very thing I missed that sent me to the keyboard all these years ago. It’s such a gift to even begin to find it with my kids.

And maybe most of all, we are deeply enjoying and deeply grateful for the life and community we find through our church (if you’re on the north side of town, come say hey sometime!).

I don’t think this is the last thing that will ever be written on this site or anything like that, though this is probably the first time I’ve felt like that was a possibility. I still have no idea how to be a pastor and not do this.

But as I’m aware of the changing rhythms in our lives, I wanted to let you know, and make sure to take the opportunity to say thank you, so very much, for being here. Those who’ve read the site over all these years helped create a very real sense of community for us, and I hope for you. I cannot tell you how meaningful it’s been for me, and how important it was early on when I was far from home and the people I loved. You’ve helped me grow up as a person and a pastor. And I still get such a kick out of sharing this together.

I remain just a kid who grew up in Knoxville who loves the Vols. Thanks for the privilege of doing that together, through all the wins and losses.

Grace and Peace and Go Vols,

Will