Category Archives: Football

As first impressions go, Josh Heupel probably couldn’t ask for a better opener among FBS foes. Bowling Green went 0-5 in the MAC last season, losing by an average margin of 45-11. Only UMass was worse in SP+ last season, and the Falcons are 125th in 2021 preseason SP+ projections.

Of course, it’s not just that the last time we saw both Bowling Green and UMass, they almost beat us. There was plenty of, “Finally, a cupcake opener!” for Georgia State just two years ago. You never know.

But there’s at least a chance Josh Heupel’s Vols put up something ridiculous in week one. That would lead us straight into the overreaction trap for the first real temperature check of his tenure just nine days later. Pitt’s a story for another day. For now, if the Vols do throw out a big number on Bowling Green to open the Josh Heupel era, it would certainly look and feel different than what we’ve seen recently.

In the post-Fulmer era, the Vols have scored 40+ points in regulation vs an FBS opponent 22 times in 12 years. Ten of those belong to Josh Dobbs; seven more to Tyler Bray. Jonathan Crompton did it twice in the back half of 2009.

Two of the other three involved weirdness: Western Kentucky’s “let’s turn it over on every play!” strategy in 2013, which helped Butch Jones get off to a nice start in his second game. And South Carolina two years ago, when the Vols scored 41 points by way of two special teams touchdowns. That leaves Vanderbilt last year as the final example, when the Vols did get a pick six from Bryce Thompson (and also, it was 2020 Vanderbilt).

Between Dobbs and that special teams flourish against South Carolina two years ago, Tennessee rode the struggle bus hard. In regulation, the Vols never even scored 30 points against FBS competition in 2017. They did it only once in 2018, again aided by a defensive score, in the signature win at Auburn (30). And in 2019, they scored 30+ against Georgia State (30), South Carolina (41), and UAB (30).

So, bump it up to 31+ points, and 2019 South Carolina is the only time the Vols hit that mark vs an FBS foe in regulation for three straight years.

This is one reason that early start felt so good last year: 31 points at South Carolina, 35 against Mizzou. Obviously neither of those teams were world-beaters, but Tennessee’s offense got the job done against middle-tier SEC East teams in a way it did not in the previous three seasons. And then, of course, it did not for the rest of the non-Vanderbilt schedule last fall.

This is perhaps the silverest of linings for Josh Heupel’s brand of football this year: Tennessee has been so bad on offense the last four years, it won’t take much to make us feel good. And nothing feels better in football than points.

So man, 40+, even on Bowling Green, would feel really good compared to what we’ve seen recently. Hit 50+, and that’s only been done vs FBS in regulation 10 times post-Fulmer (half of those are Dobbs).

And 60+? That’s been done once, and done in part because Josh Heupel was on the other sideline: in 2016, Tennessee beat Missouri 63-37 in a game featuring 1,349 total yards, and the Tigers running 110 total plays.

I don’t know exactly what will happen against Bowling Green, who the quarterback will be, or if he can find a way to add his name to the list with Crompton, Bray, and Dobbs over the last 13 years.

But I think there’s a chance we could have some fun right away.

Here’s the full list:

Tennessee 40+ Points (vs FBS in regulation) Post-Fulmer

• 2020 Vanderbilt: 42
• 2019 South Carolina: 41
• 2016 Virginia Tech: 45
• 2016 Kentucky: 49
• 2016 Missouri: 63
• 2015 Bowling Green: 59
• 2015 Kentucky: 52
• 2015 Vanderbilt: 53
• 2015 Northwestern: 45
• 2014 South Carolina: 45 (42 in regulation)
• 2014 Kentucky: 50
• 2014 Iowa: 45
• 2013 Western Kentucky: 52
• 2012 Akron: 47
• 2012 Georgia: 44
• 2012 Troy: 55
• 2011 Cincinnati: 45
• 2011 Buffalo: 41
• 2010 Memphis: 50
• 2010 Ole Miss: 52
• 2009 Georgia: 45
• 2009 Memphis: 56

It’s July 9, which means we’re still deep in the land of power rankings and projections. Phil Steele’s mammoth magazine usually provides some off-season content, but one of the biggest red flags for me personally is how little Tennessee shows up in it at all this year. Stay tuned.

The most fun you can have with these things is projected win totals, both for the expectations conversation and comparing yourself to your peers. ESPN updated their FPI rankings and projected win totals this week, and of note in the SEC:

• 11 wins: Alabama
• 10 wins: Georgia, Texas A&M
• 9 wins: Florida
• 7 wins: Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Missouri

That’s a lot in the middle. Like, a lot a lot.

Seven teams projected to hit the same number is the most for any power five conference. And the spectrum is a little short of what it actually could be, from Auburn’s 7.2 projected wins to Missouri’s 6.5. These are regular season win totals, so your theoretical seven wins could become eight in one of the SEC’s group of six bowls.

It’s surprisingly balanced, at least to me, for the SEC: four teams from the West, three from the East. And depending on your take of Auburn’s trip to Penn State on September 18, it’s not a projection of seven wins because any of these teams face insurmountable odds in a non-conference game. Kentucky and Ole Miss both play Louisville, LSU opens in the Rose Bowl, Mississippi State hosts NC State, the Vols host Pitt, and Mizzou is at Boston College.

There’s a long-standing joke about parity in the ACC Coastal, and that league does offer the closest comparison in FPI:

• 12 wins: Clemson
• 9 wins: Miami, North Carolina
• 7 wins: Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Louisville, NC State, Virginia

No other league has more than four teams projected to hit the same number. And Tennessee’s other SEC East contemporaries are further down the list: South Carolina at five wins, Vanderbilt at four (and Arkansas at six to round out the league).

I’m sure some of these SEC teams will hit eight wins and some six. But the actual projection is one that Tennessee would take: a 7-5 regular season with a (theoretical) chance to get to eight wins via one of those group of six bowls would represent the best on-paper year one for any Tennessee coach since Fulmer. It continues to appear from a distance that so much of Tennessee’s final record will come down to what they do against the group of teams in this same projection range, which means we’ll get more meaningful action right away with Pitt, Missouri, South Carolina, and Ole Miss all on the schedule in the first seven Saturdays.

One of the conversations I’ve encountered most in these last few weeks is how we’ve become accustomed to bad news following good. We’re living a bit of it right now until Tony Vitello signs an extension. It’s not just that football has trended down over 13 years…it’s that none of those 13 seasons found a way to live on in our memories. It’s something we wrote about when the Butch Jones era looked like it was headed for the off-ramp after a 41-0 loss to Georgia in 2017: you can create a moment in any season, but ultimately the season itself has to be considered a success for that moment to last.

Tennessee’s baseball team created plenty of moments this year, including a walk-off grand slam that should be talked about by anyone following Tennessee baseball a decade from now. We haven’t been doing this long enough to know how true, “Any season that ends in Omaha is a good one,” is. It does make me think about what the basketball equivalent might be.

The way we perceive basketball is a funny thing. The Vols have advanced to the Sweet 16 six times since 2000 (28.5% of the tournaments played in that span), and five times since 2007 (35.7%). You’d like to see that number climb towards 50%, a number elite programs tend to hit. But the Vols have also had the misfortune of going 1-5 in those Sweet 16 games, losing three times as the higher seed. Those finishes, and their inability to reach a round that would automatically be defined as success, can leave a slightly sour aftertaste.

The one time the Vols did break through to the Elite Eight did come a couple years after the football program entered exile in 2010, and is probably my favorite team to write about as long as I’ve been doing this. That season will live forever, both in individual moments and the whole. But they had the misfortune on the calendar of being followed by the investigation into their head coach just five months later, and the termination of said coach at the end of the following season. Cuonzo Martin’s run to the Sweet 16 was followed by his exit within the month. Rick Barnes’ best team and most memorable win are slightly burdened by a 20-point loss to Auburn within 24 hours.

So even in a sport where things have gone overwhelmingly well in the last 15 years, with real and regular opportunities to make history, it feels like even the things we’ve truly celebrated never last quite long enough.

Still, the most valuable thing for Tennessee is the opportunity. The basketball team is going to be in the hunt. The football team used to be, even through 2007. The baseball team could be in the future.

In the midst of those opportunities, there will always be misses. There are plenty from 1989-2007 in football, and trust me, those hurt more too. Seasons with little-to-no-regrets – 1989, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2004 – are outnumbered by seasons with great wins and tough losses. That’s the nature of the beast. There are roller coaster years like 1990 or 2007 that ultimately ended in satisfaction. There are individual wins so great, like the turning-30 Miracle at South Bend, that define entire seasons. And there is disappointment, to be sure, when some of the best moments were followed by some of the hardest; the two Saturdays in December 2001 that defined much of the post-1998 Fulmer conversation turn 20 themselves this fall.

That’s the beauty of sports: it’s all opportunity. You’ll win and you’ll lose. We’ve grown accustomed to there not being enough distance between the one and the other. But the opportunities we want are there in basketball and, hopefully, baseball. And a new coach will get a chance to chase his own starting this fall.

So it looks like we’re going to 12, though there will be some weeping and gnashing of teeth over going higher than eight. (And some additional tears for quarterfinal rounds keeping bowls on life support instead of more games on campus.)

Tennessee, of course, is a long, long way from any playoff conversation. But perhaps one way to learn how you’d actually feel about 12 teams is to run it back through our happier days, to see what difference it might’ve made in our glory days. A big thanks to College Poll Archive for facilitating the fun.

If the field was 12 teams (Top 6 conference champions + Top 6 at-large, rankings using AP, BCS, and CFP polls), how often would the Vols have played for it all?

1989: In, first round game in Knoxville. Three-way-tie for the SEC title with the 11-1 Vols, Alabama, and Auburn, but at #8 in the final regular season AP poll, Tennessee is in either way.

1990: In. SEC Champions at the end of a very strange and wildly enjoyable 8-2-2 campaign.

1991: In. Here’s a good example of how a season might be remembered differently: the ’91 Vols are basically thought of as the Miracle at South Bend team, and that’s about it. But they would’ve squeaked into the playoffs at #10.

1992: Bubble until mid-November. The Johnny Majors-Phillip Fulmer drama would’ve included a fall from what felt like playoff certainty in early October to a hill too steep to climb after three straight losses. Still, another theme emerges for the first time here: even outside the Top 12, if you can win the SEC East, you get a chance to dramatically improve your fate in Atlanta. In 1992, the Vols were alive for Atlanta until mid-November, when Georgia beat Auburn and Florida escaped South Carolina.

1993: In, first round game in Knoxville. The ol’ “Best Vol squad of the 90s in SP+” would’ve not only made the field, but hosted a first round game at #6 in the final regular season AP poll. No season would’ve had its fate more drastically altered; this group would’ve gone to the playoff feeling like a legit national championship contender.

1994: Out

1995: In, first round game in Knoxville. Couldn’t earn a first round bye since the Gators won the SEC, but the #4 Vols are in easily.

1996: In. That Memphis loss stings a little less now eh?

1997: In, first round bye. No worries with Michigan and Nebraska both going undefeated.

1998: In, first round bye. Obviously.

1999: In, first round game in Knoxville. In the, “You made the regular season less meaningful!” camp: Tennessee’s 1999 loss to Arkansas took them out of the national championship picture. In a 12-team playoff, it would’ve cost them basically zero: the Vols were still #5 in the final regular season BCS standings.

2000: Out

2001: In, first round game in Knoxville. Tennessee’s loss to LSU in the SEC Championship Game moves from the most heartbreaking Saturday of our lives to, “Oh man, now we have to play an extra game.”

2002: Out

2003: In, first round game in Knoxville. Here’s another season that looks very different in a 12-team playoff. The Vols finished eighth in the final regular season BCS standings at 10-2, got hosed into the Peach Bowl, then tried to fight Clemson for an hour and lost thanks to 134521087 penalties. But in a 12-team playoff, not only is Casey Clausen’s final team in, they’re hosting.

2004: Bubble until Atlanta. The Vols finished 15th in the BCS after losing to undefeated Auburn in Atlanta, but that’s obviously a win-and-you’re-in scenario.

2005: Out

2006: Bubble until mid-November. Instead of the loss to LSU being the one that cost the Vols, it would’ve been the next one at Arkansas that took Tennessee out.

2007: Bubble until Atlanta. Same as 2004, win in Atlanta and you’re in.

The Vols, of course, would’ve been out from 2008-2015. Even that 2015 squad, who played so many great teams so close, was too far behind to catch up. The 2016 squad would’ve been on the bubble until mid-November, when Florida’s win over LSU knocked the Vols out of Atlanta. Then back to spectating from 2017 to the present day.

So pros: the Vols are in 11 times in 15 years from 1989-2003. They only earn first-round byes in 1997 and 1998 thanks to Steve Spurrier, but do host a first round game six times. And they’re technically in the national championship conversation deep into 2004 and 2007, years that otherwise could only shoot for the division title by then.

And cons: those division titles end up meaning pretty much nothing, though much of that is because of who Tennessee was as a program by that point. Instead of 2004 and 2007 feeling like a disappointment, Tennessee just misses the playoffs in 2004, 2006, and 2007 after making it 11 of 15 times prior. That, of course, is the same hot seat for Phillip Fulmer in 2008; mileage will always vary, but I’m not sure this new scenario will automatically lead to more job security for everyone.

Asking if this scenario increases or diminishes Tennessee’s legacy would be entirely dependent on what those Vols did in those hypothetical playoffs. But I think it’s safe to say it can keep all kinds of teams in the conversation for much longer…and it can diminish all other accomplishments.

The best news for Tennessee coming into what will be a landscape-shifting moment for how we define success in college football: we haven’t had much by any definition in 14 years. So while this kind of shift may not automatically make life any easier for someone like Kirby Smart, any kind of success – stealing an SEC East title, just hanging around the conversation, or being one of those teams that makes someone say, “You know, we used to have better teams here in the Outback Bowl…”…it’s all forward progress from here.

I’ve already watched more Tennessee baseball this year than I have since at least 2005, and maybe 2001. And we haven’t even gotten to the part of the year that a percentage of fans will only tune in for, the old “bad Lady Vol fan” demographic I used to be part of too: if you know they’re going to be in the tournament and should make a deep run, how much attention do you really pay before March? Or June?

The baseball Vols are packing out Lindsey Nelson with post-pandemic glee. But I would imagine no one is enjoying it more than those fans, however many or however few, who have followed the program closely in the 16 years since we last had a shot at Omaha.

It’s an absence a couple years longer than the football program’s from the national conversation, in an SEC sport just as tough, if not more so, to rise in. What Tony Vitello and those guys are doing is truly amazing.

Meanwhile, in football it’s still easier to measure the distance to the bottom than the top:

The “sheesh” is actually worth appreciating in terms of Tennessee’s brand, I suppose. The perception that this is, in fact, the worst it’s ever been for a program of UT’s historical caliber is, in fact, stronger than the reality of where the program’s actually been.

If you’re graduating from UT this month, grew up in the area, and are a lifelong fan…what do you actually remember?

It’s not just that a 21-year-old wasn’t alive in 1998. Do they remember 2007, when they were seven years old? Because since then…

And sometimes in the since then, we say, “Well, at least there were a few good times in 2015 and 2016.” That’s true, including circumstances from 2016 that may never be reproduced in any of our lifetimes between Bristol, 38 unanswered points on Florida, and the hail mary.

But not only did the Vols fail to win the SEC East those two years and fail to ascend any further, they’ve regressed. In SP+, three of Tennessee’s worst four seasons in the last 15 years are 2017, 2018, and 2020.

The other one in that group is 2013, the kind of suffering a first year coach in the SEC might expect. Maybe something similar will happen to Josh Heupel this fall, or maybe the Vols will take advantage of a softer schedule and make the most of it. Maybe it’ll get worse, maybe it’ll get better.

But being +34 at Alabama isn’t a sign of new depths. It’s a reflection of what’s been Tennessee’s reality for long enough to be named and accepted, which, again, is usually the best way to start moving forward.

Via covers.com, here are the biggest closing lines the Vols have faced in the post-Fulmer era:

Seven of those 11 belong, of course, to the Crimson Tide. Six of those 11 belong to the last four years.

At this point, it’s not new that Tennessee is a 4+ possession underdog to Alabama or Georgia. Whatever the Vols accomplished in years three and four under Butch Jones, his fifth season and Jeremy Pruitt’s tenure and removal set the most relevant circumstances Josh Heupel inherits.

So yeah: embrace the moment. This is who the Vols are right now. It’s not just letting go of the 90s or stretching everything back to 2008, it’s acknowledging the depths of the last four years in particular. The Vols are significant underdogs. At this point, the best way forward is to embrace that more than lamenting its relationship to what Tennessee used to be. It’s not that those days are so long ago as much as the days that have been most recent these last four seasons have been most bad.

Embrace the moment.

It’ll always be the best way to appreciate the climb.

When Tennessee went 1-for-11 on third down in the season opener but beat South Carolina anyway, we laughed it off. Fun anomaly! Let’s move on! And the Vols did, going 6-of-13 against Missouri the following week.

As you’ll recall, not much else went right from there. And as far as Tennessee’s offense was concerned, the opening performance at South Carolina was a red flag after all. In 2020, the Vol offense went 39-of-129 (30.23%) on third down, 119th in college football. It was the thing Tennessee’s offense was worst at.

There’s little differentiation between run, pass, short yardage, and long yardage. The Vols simply struggled everywhere on third down last season.

In the past, this kind of extreme struggle on third down was usually attributed to a quarterback injury. In the post-Fulmer era, the Vols have converted on less than 35% of their third down attempts in conference play four times in 12 years (stats via SportSource Analytics). Two of those came in 2011 and 2013. When Tyler Bray got hurt against Georgia and Derek Dooley burned Justin Worley’s redshirt two games later, the Vols went 2-of-14 against Alabama, 2-of-14 against South Carolina, and 4-of-18 at Arkansas. Two years later when it was Worley who went down with injury, Josh Dobbs was thrown to the fire and went 3-of-12 against Alabama, 2-of-13 at Missouri, and 4-of-13 against both Auburn and Vanderbilt. In both of those cases, playing great opponents (and maybe James Franklin’s best Vanderbilt team) were a big part of the problem.

In 2017, the offense showed signs of third down life early even as the defense was decimated by Georgia Tech: 5-of-12 against the Yellow Jackets, 7-of-13 against Indiana State, 6-of-16 at Florida, 7-of-18 against UMass. We all know how this year ended; the problem here wasn’t converting on third downs, but needing 18 of them against UMass. Still, the Vols were 25-of-59 (42.4%) on third down going into the Georgia game. From there, disaster: 1-of-12 against the Dawgs, 3-of-13 against South Carolina, 1-of-12 again at Bama, plus an agonizing 2-of-13 against Southern Miss. Absolutely nothing worked for this team or its offense in the second half of the year.

But last year the Vols were quite bad throughout, with the exception of Missouri early and Auburn (9-of-15) late. Take a look at the rest of the damage:

Gross.

(One interesting note I found that I’m not sure where to put: Harrison Bailey on first down last year went 24-of-26 for 345 yards (13.3 ypa) and three touchdowns. He had the second highest QB rating on first down in the nation.)

In good news: Central Florida has been pretty good at this.

UCF finished 11th nationally last fall at 48.75%, 61st in 2019 at 40.5%, and fifth in 2018 at 50.29%. They’ve won with and without high third down conversion rates, which probably speaks more to their defense than anything else, especially last season. But the idea that Josh Heupel’s offense is big plays or three-and-outs only isn’t the case: this group has been really efficient on third downs.

Also of note: Missouri finished 20th nationally in third down conversions in 2017, and 42nd in 2016. Heupel’s first Tigers struggled in October – 4-of-14 at LSU, 4-of-15 at Florida, 4-of-15 against Kentucky – but had it rolling by November, as Tennessee’s 2016 defense will attest to (11-of-20 against the Vols).

The best way to avoid struggling on third down remains, of course, to avoid struggling on first and second down. In this way, Heupel’s offense is also more than simply big plays: 30% of UCF’s third downs last year required only 1-3 yards to gain for the first down. For the Vols, only 26.5% of their third downs required 1-3 yards to gain, the same number of snaps they took requiring 4-6 yards to gain. One additional note here: Central Florida actually had a higher percentage of 3rd-and-10+ than the Vols did last year (23.75% to 22.8%) despite having a much better offense overall; my assumption here is they were far more likely to throw two incomplete passes on first and second down and face a 3rd-and-10.

For Tennessee, again, it can’t really get worse. But I’m curious to see how much efficiency shows up with this offense in year one, on top of the explosiveness we all know is out there. Will the Vols find themselves in a ton of 3rd-and-10s? Or will this new offense find its way to more success not just through trying to hit home runs, but giving themselves to advance on third-and-manageable?

More in the Making Progress series:

Completion Percentage Allowed

Every offseason, we run a series on where Tennessee can make the most improvement. It’s a good way to examine how the Vols might get better, fastest. And for all the pendulum swing of Jeremy Pruitt to Josh Heupel, the place Tennessee has the most room for improvement from last year is on the defensive side of the ball.

A million years ago, #3 Tennessee played #2 Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. It was Peyton Manning’s final game, and even though a win by #1 Michigan in the Rose Bowl the day before had eliminated the Vols from the national title picture, there was still hope an elite 1997 Vol squad could end the season with a huge win over the Cornhuskers. Instead, those Vols succumbed to the Thanos-like inevitability of Nebraska’s triple option: 68 carries for 409 yards, a 14-3 halftime hole quickly becoming a 42-17 beat down. In the third quarter, Nebraska had three touchdown drives of 70+ yards that I’m not sure included any passing plays.

If they had, it would’ve been Scott Frost pulling the trigger. A lifetime later, Frost left Central Florida to return to the alma mater, paving the way for Josh Heupel to get his first head coaching gig and come to Knoxville three years later. College football has changed quite a bit from 1997 to 2021. But the inevitability of another team coming down the field on us was all too familiar last fall.

In 2020, Tennessee’s defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.2% of their passes, 125th of 127 teams playing last fall. This is where the Vols have the most room for improvement in 2021.

As the game has evolved, completion percentage is slightly on the rise around the country. In conference play, the national median completion percentage was between 58-59% from 2013-17. The last three years, it’s climbed to 59.4%, 60.6%, and 61.4% last fall. (Stats via SportSource Analytics)

Tennessee’s struggle in this department, somewhat surprisingly, can be traced directly to Pruitt’s defenses. Between Phillip Fulmer’s exit in 2008 and Jeremy Pruitt’s arrival in 2018, Vol defenses allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 60+ percent of their passes in just two seasons: a depth-depleted group in 2011 (60.9%), and Sal Sunseri’s infamous unit the following year (65.3%). Tennessee was actually pretty good in this department under John Jancek, finishing 15th nationally in completion percentage allowed in conference play in 2014, and ninth in 2015.

But the last three years, Tennessee’s defense has struggled mightily to disrupt opposing passing games: 67.5% allowed in 2018, 61.9% in 2019, and 68.2% last year (again, all numbers in conference play for the apples-to-apples comparison with last fall).

In the last 12 seasons, opposing quarterbacks completed 70+% of their passes against the Vol defense on at least 25 attempts 13 times. Four of those 13 happened last season, and the three highest completion percentages allowed all happened in the last two seasons:

No matter how good Tennessee’s offense could’ve been or would’ve been if the quarterback position had been settled, and no matter how good the Vol defense could be against the run – 27th nationally in yards per carry allowed in conference play! – when teams can routinely drop back and get whatever they want through the air, there is indeed an inevitability to the end result. On third-and-short (1-3 yards) last season, the Vol defense allowed 16-of-18 (88.9%) for 13 first downs through the air. On third-and-medium (4-6 yards), it was 17-of-25 (68%) for 16 first downs.

Tennessee obviously needs to impact the opponent passing game in far greater ways. But the Vols were actually fairly average in getting to the quarterback: 20 sacks over 10 conference games, 67th nationally in sacks per game. Texas A&M is the only game where the defense failed to record a single sack, and they got Felipe Franks four times, despite his 72% completion percentage. So while the Vols can certainly aspire to be more than average in getting the QB, it’s not where the most improvement can be done.

The inevitability of last season certainly felt worst watching teams run routes over the middle of the field. And this is where the struggle may still be quite real, as the Vols are scrambling at linebacker on the depth chart. But whether third-and-short or third-and-medium, you could get what you wanted far more often than not against Tennessee’s coverage last fall. Tim Banks and the Vols will need to scheme it better than Pruitt’s defenses did for three years to improve completion percentage rates. But they’ll also need bodies to run those schemes; it’s a big opportunity and a big task for whoever can get healthy, learn the system, and translate it to something productive in disrupting the passing game.

The good news is, this is where the most improvement can be made. And for fan and team morale, anything better than the inevitability of a completed pass is going to look and feel very much like progress.

Year one speculation is a bad idea, especially bad when you’re coming off a pandemic season, are facing the newness of the transfer portal, and are in your fifth year one since 2009. But hey, let’s give it a try!

Josh Heupel is also burdened with uncertain penalties via the NCAA. He should be less burdened with fan expectations, which previously went something like this:

• Kiffin: New and different, brash in ways that made you defend him basically every day of the off-season, recruiting well enough to be excited, and the Vols were still just two years removed from Atlanta.
• Dooley: We love you, because you aren’t Lane Kiffin.
• Butch: Recruited well enough to raise expectations before his teams played a game, and knew going in that a single win over a ranked opponent would be more than Dooley was able to accomplish in three years.
• Pruitt: Nevermind all that, and nevermind all the drama, now we’ve got a football coach’s football coach! That should be enough to make a difference, right?

There’s a freedom and, I think, something healthy in the letting go of the past that comes with everything Tennessee’s been through. But there’s also something healthy in the opportunity that’s before Heupel now, not just x years from now when the program is hopefully in a better place.

A couple months ago, Bill Connelly released his first 2021 SP+ projections. We love SP+ because of the value it places on every snap and the way it helps when comparing teams of similar records. But it’s also valuable to us because it’s unbiased, indifferent to whether the Vols win or lose. All of the above make it an early, helpful place to start when thinking about what forward progress might look like in 2021.

Tennessee’s initial 2021 SP+ projection is 6.1 (points better than the average team on a neutral field). That ranks 49th nationally, but for Heupel in year one, I think the more important context is where that puts Tennessee compared to years past:

Tennessee’s 2021 projection doesn’t flirt with the peaks of the Butch Jones era or Phillip Fulmer’s 2006-07 seasons. But it would qualify as UT’s second-best season in the last five years. And it would give our last three year ones a run for their money.

Kiffin’s first and only year is an odd comparison, mostly because of its recency to the good old days. And though that team was stout in SP+, in still only finished 7-6. But the others – Derek Dooley in 2010, Butch Jones in 2013, Jeremy Pruitt in 2018 – still offer similar goals and possibilities to what the Vols will be after in 2021.

Dooley’s year went the most predictably overall, though it was two after-the-buzzer losses away from going even better. Looking at the schedule, we thought the Vols might start 2-6 and have to win four in a row to get bowl eligible, which is exactly what they did. “Get to a bowl game,” is always a good year one goal when you’re starting over; “Get six wins,” might be Josh Heupel’s version depending on NCAA penalties. It’s the most straightforward pass/fail of a coach’s first year.

That was true for Butch Jones, hampered by the most difficult schedule any Tennessee team has faced in the SEC expansion era post-1992. The Vols caught Marucs Mariota and Oregon in Week 2, and drew BCS title game participant Auburn from the SEC West. Overall, the Vols played six teams ranked in the Top 11, five of them in a row. Tennessee beat one, getting #11 South Carolina in Knoxville, and almost beat another against Georgia. Those two performances instantly felt like more than Derek Dooley accomplished in three years. But the season lost its footing at the end in a 14-10 loss to Vanderbilt, costing the Vols bowl eligibility and a chance to declare year one an outright success.

Something similar happened to Jeremy Pruitt, who scored the third-biggest upset of my lifetime via Vegas at +14.5 over Auburn, then beat #12 Kentucky by 17. Success was at hand! Then the Vols lost to Missouri by 33 and Vanderbilt by 25, finishing 5-7.

The good news for Heupel’s year one starts with the schedule. Derek Dooley hosted #7 Oregon in week two, Butch Jones got #2 Oregon in week three, Jeremy Pruitt got #17 West Virginia out the gate. Josh Heupel gets Pittsburgh, in Knoxville.

That helps push Tennessee’s expected win total to a conversation about not just six wins and potential bowl eligibility, but seven as the most likely outcome. This makes for an intriguing year one possibility, even if it always remains a hypothetical due to a bowl ban: if the Vols finish 7-5 and win the ________ Bowl, Heupel would have the best year one of any coach since Phillip Fulmer.

ESPN’s FPI projects the Vols at 6.6 wins, with a 79.6% chance to earn bowl eligibility. And SP+ will put the Vols in that neighborhood as well. You don’t have to pursue any fantasies with Florida, Alabama, or Georgia. And, despite Tennessee starting over again, the same should be true for Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech, South Alabama, and Vanderbilt against us. The Falcons, in particular, are an appealing opener for Josh Heupel’s Vols: 126th in points allowed last season, 125th in preseason SP+ projections.

Two of the remaining five games do lean more than we probably perceive as fans, at least according to FPI and SP+. South Carolina is likewise starting over; the Gamecocks and Vols have played one-possession games eight of the last nine years. But the advanced metrics lean toward Tennessee. And Ole Miss, depending on your age bracket, still doesn’t carry the weight of, “They’re better than us,” in fan expectation. But in the advanced metrics, they do. Depending on how everyone starts, the October 16 tilt in Lane Kiffin’s return to Knoxville could become one of Tennessee’s biggest games of the season. But the Vols project as the underdog, not as an equal.

Equality comes in the other three match-ups, the ones that, from late April, look most likely to decide the ultimate outcome of Tennessee’s season: Pittsburgh, at Missouri, and at Kentucky. They each carry their own punch: the first “real” test for Heupel in week two, a return to his offensive coordinator home in week five, and a chance for revenge against the Cats off the bye week. If the other projections hold, you’re 5-4 before taking these three games into account. Lose all three, and you’re the third consecutive Vol coach to go 5-7 in year one. Win one, and you’re bowl eligible. Win two, and you’ve hit 7-5, with a chance to at least entertain the argument that you’ve had the most successful year one since Fulmer. (And, of course, win all three, and you’re 8-4…which is as good as any Tennessee coach has done in any year since Fulmer.)

We’ll see. But even though there’s plenty working against Tennessee in its fifth year one since 2009, there’s plenty of opportunity to make it the most memorable one since then as well.

Thanks to everyone who already contributed to the various projected SEC win totals for our upcoming preseason publication. Along the same lines, we’d now like to provide you with an opportunity to contribute to the publication’s preseason Top 25.

We’ve include all FBS teams in the list for the sake of completeness and to avoid excluding any outlier someone might feel strongly about. But to make things easier, we’ve also ordered the teams according to our own Power Rankings (rather than alphabetically) so you don’t have to go scrolling as much. The teams may not be in the order you prefer, but they shouldn’t be too far away.