A few months ago we looked at pass distribution under Josh Heupel at UT and UCF. The big takeaway there: in spite of playing at a faster pace, the wide receiver rotation under Heupel tends to be tighter. Last season Velus Jones and Cedric Tillman had 51.9% of Tennessee’s receptions, the highest total for a UT duo in the post-Fulmer era. Numbers were similar at Central Florida.
So I kind of expected something like this for running backs as well. Tennessee had its first scrimmage yesterday, and with Len’Neth Whitehead out for the year and Lyn-J Dixon on the roster, there’s renewed interest in who will back up Jabari Small.
But once you start digging into the numbers, it’s easy to see there’s much less of a “backup” situation in Heupel’s offense.
Total Percentage of RB Carries at Tennessee (Heupel, Pruitt, Butch)
2021
Jabari Small
37.74%
2020
Eric Gray
54.90%
2019
Ty Chandler
38.46%
2018
Tim Jordan
37.61%
2017
John Kelly
61.76%
2016
Jalen Hurd
35.36%
2015
Jalen Hurd
62.39%
2014
Jalen Hurd
56.89%
2013
Rajion Neal
58.11%
In the last nine seasons, the lead back at UT got 55+% of the total RB carries five times. Jalen Hurd was on his way to making it six before he left the team in 2016. And Jim Chaney had a history of involving multiple guys, but leaned heavily on Eric Gray in his final season at UT.
Jabari Small was dinged up a couple times last year, and could’ve seen his numbers climb higher. He didn’t play against Tennessee Tech, then left the Missouri game after just three carries and missed South Carolina the next week. Perhaps closer to full strength, he had a season high 26 carries against Purdue.
There’s no shortage of excitement about Jabari Small in 2022 coming out of scrimmage one:
That dude.@SwainEvent explained on today's show why Tennessee RB Jabari Small has a chance to break out in a big way this football season.
So there’s reason to believe Small could just take off with this thing and, when combined with Hendon Hooker and Tennessee’s passing game, the UT offense is in sensational hands. But when you look at Heupel’s history, those hands have always included at least one other running back getting significantly involved, and often more than one:
(if the chart looks weird, turn your phone sideways)
Total Percentage of RB Carries under Josh Heupel, 2018-21
Year
Team
RB Carries
RB
Carries
Pct.
2021
Tennessee
371
Jabari Small
140
37.74%
Jaylen Wright
85
22.91%
Tiyon Evans
81
21.83%
2020
UCF
365
Greg McCrae
149
40.82%
Otis Anderson
125
34.25%
B. Thompson
73
20.00%
2019
UCF
418
Otis Anderson
113
27.03%
Greg McCrae
98
23.44%
B. Thompson
87
20.81%
Adrian Killins
87
20.81%
2018
UCF
431
Adrian Killins
147
34.11%
Greg McCrae
133
30.86%
Taj McGowan
71
16.47%
Under Jeremy Pruitt and Butch Jones, the number one back got 55+% of the RB carries more often than not. Under Josh Heupel, the number one back got 40+% of the carries just once.
Maybe some of this is more carries for backups in blowouts. But even in Jabari Small’s season-high 26 carries against Purdue, Jaylen Wright still got 17 carries. The only time the Vols really rode one guy: Jabari Small had 21 carries against Ole Miss, with both Tiyon Evans and Jaylen Wright out. Marcus Pierce got two carries in the fourth quarter.
In this offense, you want your top guy to be great. But you’re still going to need at least your number two, and historically, for much more than we’re used to seeing from the number two at UT. Alvin Kamara had 29.86% of the RB carries in 2016. I don’t think the Vols have an Alvin Kamara as their backup this year. But whoever it is, history says he’s going to get a higher percentage of carries.
And we may not have a 2019 UCF scenario, where the top guy is really four guys. But again, even if Small is both great and healthy, Tennessee is going to need quality touches from its number two. History says the #2 RB matters way more than the #4 WR in this offense.
August isn’t always for the rational. Hope will thrive on campuses across the nation this month, so long as health allows. Everyone is undefeated until August 27 (Nebraska/Northwestern in Ireland! Vanderbilt at Hawaii!). The rest of us will make it until a weekend beginning in just 27 days, when the Vols will help open the festivities on Thursday night.
There is always excitement this time of year. But this one feels unusually high, especially entering a coach’s year two. We’ve had our share of those in the last 15 years; they’re usually marked by some form of, “I think we’ll be better this year, and I’m curious to see how much.” But the Vols were better last year, and by much more than we imagined play-for-play. Tennessee is 18th in Athlon’s preseason Top 25, 11th in Phil Steele’s power poll, and ninth in SP+. I’m curious to see where the Vols land when the “official” polls come out soon.
So there’s normal August excitement, and then there’s this. And this is even a bit tempered by an incredibly successful year on campus across the board: men’s basketball flirted with their best season ever in KenPom, and baseball had their best regular season ever by just about any standard. We’re not overhyping Tennessee because we’ve been hyper-focused on football for too long.
This is, for sure, “I’m ready to get hurt again,” territory. But that’s the beauty of it! Hope is dangerous! And it’s great!
And sometimes, it pays off.
Rarely in the last 15 years, to be sure. But our question for the moment is, where does the current level of optimism rank among those others? How does your current confidence compare to where it’s been? And probably most important: where should it be?
Here are 10 moments from the last 15 years when we thought we might be onto something, ranked by overall confidence. This is my list; as always, your mileage may vary. But we’d love to know where your current confidence might fall on this list.
Top 10 “We might be back!” Moments of the post-Fulmer Era
Honorable Mention: 2009 Georgia
Not included, because in October 2009 you could tell yourself that we were really only rebuilding instead of doing whatever you want to call the last 15 years.
How long did it last? Through the rest of Lane Kiffin’s first season, until it became Lane Kiffin’s only season.
10. 2012 NC State
Take an anxious off-season after the 2011 loss to Kentucky, one of the most consequential outcomes of the last 15 years. Add in Cordarrelle Patterson and mix it all together in the Georgia Dome. Tennessee’s 35-21 season opening victory over NC State featured 524 yards of offense and tantalizing possibilities.
How long did it last? Two weeks later the Vols were back in the Top 25 for the first time since preseason 2008. We took a 20-13 lead over Florida midway through the third quarter in Knoxville, then stopped a fake punt on the ensuing drive. The Vols had 1st-and-10 at the Florida 47 with 4:45 to play in the third.
That’s how long it lasted. Tyler Bray was hit with intentional grounding on the next play and the Vols punted. From there, Florida had four plays of 30+ yards the rest of the way, including touchdowns of 80 and 75 yards, putting 24 points on the board in the last 18 minutes of play. Sal Sunseri’s defense became a huge question that never got answered.
9. 2014 South Carolina
The only reason this one isn’t higher is because of what happened earlier in the 2014 season, a little further down our list. I still think this is one of the most rewatchable games of the last 15 years, signaling the arrival of Josh Dobbs as Tennessee’s full-time quarterback for the next 2.5 years with 301 through the air and 166 on the ground. And it carries far less of the “yeah, but” quality that marks some of the other games on this list because they didn’t last as long.
How long did it last? The Vols went to 4-5 with this win, and though they came up short to eventual East champs Missouri, they did get bowl eligible, then rocked Iowa in Jacksonville. So in part, this one lasted until the 2015 Oklahoma/Florida sequence.
8. 2018 Auburn
A ranked road win for Jeremy Pruitt in year one. The Vols used the underdog playbook, getting turnovers and a defensive touchdown to secure a 30-24 victory over the Tigers. Not bad for a team that had lost its previous three meetings with ranked teams by 26 points.
How long did it last? After getting rocked by Alabama, the Vols lost a close one at South Carolina. But they rebounded to beat #12 Kentucky 24-7, moving to 5-5. It felt like we were one win away from a lot of things at that point…and then we lost to Missouri by 33 and Vanderbilt by 25.
7. 2011 Cincinnati
Another highly rewatchable game, and still one of the greatest individual performances by a quarterback at UT. Tyler Bray went 34-of-41 for 401 yards and four touchdowns, and Derek Dooley’s Vols beat Butch Jones’ Bearcats 45-23.
How long did it last? The next week in Gainesville, Florida scored on their opening drive, and Justin Hunter blew out his knee on Tennessee’s. Tyler Bray broke his thumb against Georgia two weeks later.
6. 2020 Missouri
Nothing sexy about the individual win, though Eric Gray and Ty Chandler combined for 195 on the ground. But this made eight wins in a row for the Vols (four of them by one possession over Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, and South Carolina, he said ominously in hindsight…). Due to the pandemic, the Vols were in the Top 15 for the first time since 2007.
How long did it last? At least 30 minutes at Georgia the next week. The next 30 minutes could’ve been written up to Georgia’s talent. The next week vs Kentucky could not.
5. 2014 Week of the Florida game
The 2014 Vols smashed internet darlings Utah State 38-7 in the opener. They were game at Oklahoma for a while before falling. And they almost, almost got Georgia in Athens before falling 35-32. Meanwhile, Will Muschamp was on the hot seat: 4-8 in 2013, then a three overtime survivor against Kentucky, then lost 42-21 to Alabama. The game was in Knoxville, we checkered Neyland for the first time (eight years ago, hard to believe!), third down for what, all of that. We didn’t just think we were going to win. We thought we were going to exorcise. “Every star that could possibly be aligned is burning our shade of orange,” he wrote foolishly.
How long did it last? Florida won 10-9.
4. Right Now
A lot of what’s written up there is about hearts and feelings and the alignment of stars. A lot of what’s being said right now is about power rankings and efficiency (and five star recruits!). This team beat Missouri by 38 and South Carolina by 25 last year. They already got the ranked road win. And to some degree, their version of heartbreak is somewhat rightfully defined by conversations about officiating instead of questions about management. In SP+, the 2021 Vols were the second-best Tennessee team of the last 15 years. And yet, by our old standards, these Vols haven’t done anything yet. And it’s August, and we’re prone to think a lot of things. But one of those things I think: there’s more reason to believe in Tennessee right now than at any point in the last 15 years, save three:
3. 2013 Georgia & South Carolina
A Smokey Gray almost, followed by a ranked win for Butch Jones in year one after none for Derek Dooley. In the moment, with recruiting rankings backing it up, you had more reason to believe the program was on its way than at any point since Kiffin left. And even looking back, that South Carolina team is still the best team this program has beaten in 15 years (#11 at kickoff, #4 in the final poll). We’ll make that point a lot the first time this team gets a Top 15 win.
How long did it last? Justin Worley got hurt against Alabama the next week, sending true freshman Josh Dobbs into the fray. The 2013 schedule is maybe the hardest in program history, sending Dobbs against the East champs from Missouri and the almost-national champs from Auburn. Still, I think these good vibes lasted until the Vanderbilt game, when bowl eligibility was frustratingly lost.
2. 2015 Northwestern
The clear pinnacle of good football vibes lasting a long time. When the Vols torched #15 Northwestern 45-6 in the Outback Bowl, it was our largest margin of victory over a ranked team in 25 years. And more than anything, with the Vols bringing almost everyone back, it set aside the heartbreak of early 2015, and set our sights squarely on championship aspirations for 2016. This was a fun eight months to be a Tennessee Vol.
How long did it last? See below, but I can assure you it stopped being as much fun about 75% of the way through the Appalachian State game.
1. 2016 Florida/Georgia
The clear pinnacle of the last 15 years, a height matched only by its fall. Six years later, the “yeah, but” of two otherwise incredibly rewatchable games is an inescapable part of their story. Still, these games are the champ until Tennessee beats someone more meaningful. And when the Vols do finally escape the wilderness, perhaps we can look back on these two weeks much more fondly, and appreciate them for what they are.
How long did it last? There was enough grace for 351570 turnovers the next week at Texas A&M, and even facing one of the best defenses of all time from Alabama. But the loss at South Carolina cost the Vols the East, and the loss at Vanderbilt cost the Vols the Sugar Bowl. And that meant the cost of losing was ultimately higher than the joy of winning, leaving 2016 like many other years on this list: some great individual moments that could never quite be strung together enough to make the memories of great seasons.
Last season the Vols allowed 44 sacks, 124th nationally. And this too wasn’t just a function of Tennessee playing fast: 44 sacks with 376 total passing attempts (Hooker + Milton) means Vol quarterbacks went down on 10.48% of passing plays. That’s the highest total in the post-Fulmer era:
Tennessee Sack Rate Allowed 2009-2021
Year
Sacks Allowed
Passing Att
Sack %
2021
44
376
10.48%
2020
29
285
9.24%
2019
21
360
5.51%
2018
23
297
7.19%
2017
35
319
9.89%
2016
25
379
6.19%
2015
24
371
6.08%
2014
43
453
8.67%
2013
15
344
4.18%
2012
8
477
1.65%
2011
18
400
4.31%
2010
41
419
8.91%
2009
18
401
4.30%
If safety in the passing game was Tennessee’s greatest strength, keeping quarterbacks upright is Tennessee’s greatest area for improvement. And just a little progress can go a very long way.
The Vols lost Cade Mays to the NFL, but bring back everyone else up front. Figuring out who wins the tackle spot opposite Darnell Wright will be a huge piece of the puzzle in fall camp.
Sacks were costly in some of Tennessee’s biggest moments last year. Before the 4th-and-24 against Ole Miss, the Vols had 1st-and-10 at midfield. But a sack and a holding penalty on consecutive plays put the Vols in the aforementioned hole. With a chance to put Kentucky away late, Hooker was sacked twice from 2nd-and-Goal at the 5, ultimately leading to a missed field goal. Driving into Georgia territory late in the third quarter, a pair of sacks ended Tennessee’s chance to keep the game within reach.
Good news: this isn’t a problem Josh Heupel’s teams had at UCF. It isn’t a function of the offense with quarterbacks holding the ball longer than usual, etc. Tennessee struggled in this department in 2020 as well, and hasn’t had a sack rate lower than 5% since the 2013 line that sent Ja’Wuan James and Zach Fulton to the NFL.
For all the good – and the great! – Tennessee’s offense did last year, there’s an opportunity for even more improvement here that could go a long way in keeping drives alive, producing even more points and even more separation. How much better will Tennessee’s pass protection be in 2022?
This is Monday. Next Monday is August. We’re close.
In these final few weeks before kickoff, we’re taking a look at the things Tennessee did very best…and very worst in 2021. There are places for celebration, as well as a moment to ask if we’ll see such greatness again this year. And there are places for obvious improvement, where even a little difference can go a long way.
Let’s start with a word about tempo. The Vols led college football in plays per minute and points per minute, two of many facts whose solidification was lost in the immediate aftermath of the Purdue game. Instead of getting to talk about historic records falling, we got to talk about referees, everyone’s favorite topic. Tennessee was also 127th nationally in defensive snaps allowed, and trailed only Michigan State among teams playing 13 games. So there are plenty of Tennessee’s raw numbers that require that caveat: more snaps = more numbers, etc.
Setting pace aside, the thing Tennessee did very best last season: Hendon Hooker threw just three interceptions on 303 passing attempts.
Only Hooker and Bo Nix had three or fewer interceptions on 300+ passing attempts in college football last year; Nix gets the slight edge and the new SEC record with three picks on 323 attempts. Drop it to 250+ attempts, and it’s still a list with only those two, Dequan Finn at Toledo, and Brendon Lewis at Colorado on it.
Hooker was able to take down several Tennessee passing records last season, in part due to what Josh Heupel’s offense sets up for its quarterback. We looked at some of these going into the Music City Bowl, where Hooker easily finished off the school record for yards per attempt. He stayed just north of Erik Ainge for the single-season completion percentage record.
But the most impressive number is those three interceptions. That’s less than one percent of his total passing attempts. And according to the 2021 media guide, the previous UT and SEC record was held by the guy now at #2 on this list:
Tennessee QB Interception Percentage, 1992-2021
Year
QB
ATT
INT
PCT
2021
Hooker
303
3
0.99%
1995
Manning
380
4
1.05%
2018
Guarantano
246
3
1.22%
2015
Dobbs
344
5
1.45%
1992
Shuler
224
4
1.79%
2007
Ainge
519
10
1.93%
2003
C. Clausen
412
9
2.18%
1998
Martin
267
6
2.25%
2002
C. Clausen
310
7
2.26%
1997
Manning
477
11
2.31%
2020
Guarantano
166
4
2.41%
2011
Bray
247
6
2.43%
2001
C. Clausen
354
9
2.54%
2006
Ainge
348
9
2.59%
2012
Bray
451
12
2.66%
1993
Shuler
285
8
2.81%
2005
R. Clausen
209
6
2.87%
1999
Martin
305
9
2.95%
2008
Crompton
167
5
2.99%
2000
C. Clausen
194
6
3.09%
2019
Guarantano
257
8
3.11%
1996
Manning
380
12
3.16%
2014
Worley
252
8
3.17%
2016
Dobbs
357
12
3.36%
2009
Crompton
384
13
3.39%
2013
Worley
196
8
4.08%
1994
Manning
144
6
4.17%
2017
Dormady
137
6
4.38%
2010
Bray
224
10
4.46%
2004
Ainge
198
9
4.55%
Anytime we’re breaking Peyton Manning records, we’re doing something right. And you’ll also notice the bottom of the list belongs to true freshmen, including Manning as well. More recently, you’ll note one of the big off-season conversations from 2015 to 2016: will they let Dobbs throw it downfield more? The 2015 Vols were more content to bludgeon, and with Dobbs + Hurd + Kamara it wasn’t a bad plan. But Tennessee and Mike DeBord did take more chances the following year, in part because they had to with defensive difficulties. The Vols turned that into more big plays, but also seven more interceptions.
With Heupel’s offense, there isn’t much concern about getting even more aggressive. That’s part of what makes Hooker’s year so impressive. And finding that explosiveness while minimizing risk is an incredible combo, one Heupel was able to duplicate at UCF:
2018: McKenzie Milton 2.08% (6 INTs on 289 attempts)
2019: Dillon Gabriel 1.76% (7 INTs on 398 attempts)
2020: Dillon Gabriel 0.97% (4 INTs on 413 attempts)
That last number, you’ll note, is even a smidge better than Hooker’s.
Is #5 going to throw more than three interceptions this year? I mean, the starting point is so low it’s hard to take the under. But if the Vols can continue to operate with this level of precision + explosiveness in the passing game? That’s a clear path to more success, and perhaps to individual honor for Hooker.
And it’s even more impressive considering the thing Tennessee was very worst at, which we’ll look at next.
Here’s something that caught my eye from media days this week:
Cole Cubelic of SEC Network told me in interview that Tennessee might be third best team in SEC. We'll play that interview later today in SportsTalk. Also Roman Harper of SEC Network said UT might be SEC's third best team and maybe Alabama's toughest opponent.
One thing about this conversation: the team that should be the consensus “third best” team in the league, Texas A&M, isn’t on our schedule. So to some degree, it doesn’t matter whether you think the Vols or Aggies is better on December 1, unless we’re both in Atlanta.
But this conversation could come into play when it’s time to consider postseason destinations.
Bowls are always a fickle way to judge the success of one’s season; there’s so little control Tennessee or anyone else has if you find yourself in the SEC’s group of six bowls (“Outback”, Gator, Music City, Liberty, Texas, and Las Vegas this year, alternating seasons with the Belk/Mayo). The Vols haven’t made it north of this tier since playing in the Cotton Bowl in 2004; with that game now in the CFP rotation, the Citrus Bowl in 2001 is really the most recent comparison.
Two of the most straightforward ways to identify success – bowl destination and division championship – could both look quite different in a couple years. But for now, getting to the “Outback” (one appearance in the last 15 years) or the Citrus (none in the last 21 years) would be a clear indicator of a successful season for Tennessee.
And if the Vols are really the third best team in the SEC? They could go even higher than that.
How good do you have to be to make the Sugar Bowl?
We’re eight years in with the College Football Playoff. Every three years, the Sugar Bowl hosts a national semifinal. The other two years, including this fall, New Orleans gets the highest-ranked SEC team that isn’t in the semifinals. In 2017 and 2021, the league got two teams into the semifinals; I’m sure many preseason projections for this fall will put Alabama and Georgia there again.
So, historically speaking, who makes the Sugar Bowl as the SEC’s designated team?
2015: Ole Miss (9-3, #12 CFP poll)
2016: Auburn (8-4, #17 CFP poll)
2018: Georgia (11-2, #6 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
2019: Georgia (11-2, #5 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
2021: Ole Miss (10-2, #8 CFP poll)
We know that 2016 story well, when the Vols were a win at Vanderbilt away from making it themselves at what would’ve been 9-3. As we’ll see, that season itself was an outlier, with everyone who wasn’t Alabama finishing with at least four losses. But in general, if you get to 9-3 or better? You’re going to come in for a nice landing:
What happens to SEC teams who finish at least 9-3?
2021: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Georgia (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (10-2, Sugar), Kentucky (9-3, Citrus)
2015: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (9-3, Sugar), Florida (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (10-3, Gator), LSU (9-3, Texas)
2014: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Mississippi State (10-2, Orange), Ole Miss (9-3, Peach), Missouri (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (9-3, Belk)
In eight years of the playoffs, 33 SEC teams have had three or fewer losses on selection Sunday. Of that group, only four made something “less” than the Citrus Bowl. And only 2019 Auburn went down that path in the last six years.
So from a Tennessee perspective, not only would a 9-3 regular season give you the best record in Knoxville in the last 15 years, it should send you to a bowl destination of Citrus or better. And depending on what happens at the tippy-top of the league, it could send you somewhere even better.
If we again see Alabama and Georgia both in the playoff, could a 9-3 Tennessee have the league’s next-best resume? It’s on this level that games like Texas A&M/Miami, Arkansas/Cincinnati, and without question Tennessee/Pitt come into play.
But beneath all of that, keep your eyes on the bowl projections. A 9-3 finish and Orlando for the Vols? One or both of those would automatically give you the best season in 15+ years.
Next week, somebody is going to be picked second in the SEC East. Maybe it’ll be the Vols, maybe not. But I would anticipate Tennessee being close enough to warrant conversation.
That’s not really a goal, of course. You don’t get a silver medal. If the Vols have a successful 2022 season, that won’t be how we describe it. But the journey to such a finish can provide a clear opportunity for the kind of season we’re looking for.
Some ten years ago, we started ranking Tennessee’s most important games going into each season. Even then, in Derek Dooley’s final season, you can see the argument: it’s not which wins would be worth most, in which case Alabama and Georgia vault to the top of the list. It’s more about that team’s particular path to success: back then, we had NC State at number two, with Dooley feeling heat heading into year three and the Vols in desperate need of a good start.
The game at number one on that list has been the game at number one almost every year going back somewhere between 10-30 years:
Florida
It would be easier to think of when the Gators haven’t been viewed as Tennessee’s most important game going into the season. Once the Vols broke a 10-year Alabama streak in 1995, the Tennessee/Florida game vaulted to the top of our lists and our hearts. Since then, when has it not been the Gators? Maybe when Miami was the defending national champion and Ron Zook moved to Florida in 2002. Maybe when Mark Richt firmly established Georgia as a power after beating the Vols four years in a row for 2004-05. And there have been a few times when the Gators were perceived as simply too good for the Vols to realistically catch in the midst of coaching change; maybe only Jeremy Pruitt’s 2018 squad, with Dan Mullen also in year one, could really look at Florida as their biggest game in year one.
Last summer, we would’ve viewed a win like South Carolina or Kentucky as “more important” on the front end. But Josh Heupel’s team did more than a good enough job to get the Gators back at the top of our list in year two, even before Mullen’s season spiraled and Florida turned their own staff over.
Tennessee, as you know, has one win over Florida since 2004, and even that one has six years and two coaching staffs of mileage on it. Beating the Gators at any point would be a success for Tennessee right now. It would create one of the strongest memories any Vol coach has secured in the post-Fulmer era, and Heupel would have a chance to do it early in year two. It doesn’t always go that way, even when you feel like it’s gonna. But it certainly can this year, in a game the Vols might even be favored in for the first time since ducks pulled trucks.
It always starts here. It’s where it can go next that helps define importance to me:
LSU & Kentucky
You can go in any order here. LSU is the national power, a meaningful win for the Vols in any year. Stumble against Florida and Pittsburgh, it’s your chance to right the ship. Beat one or both of those teams, and it’s a chance to stay in the national conversation. The LSU game will function to some degree like the Texas A&M game in 2016: it can’t do it for you by itself, but it can set the course for what comes next.
Kentucky fans are surely telling themselves they should have three consecutive wins over us. The program has elevated itself to a place where they might earn those second place votes. And the seeds of rivalry have always been there via basketball season. The Vols catch LSU coming off a bye; Kentucky catches us in the same fashion.
For Tennessee fans, it will seem easier to overlook the Cats because of what comes next. But it’s this sequence of games that gives the next one a chance to matter most.
Georgia
If you think we’re ready for this kind of fun, then sure, Georgia’s the most important game on the schedule because it’s the one that gives you the best chance to win the East.
I think that’s an unfair conversation headed into year two against the defending national champions. But I wouldn’t shy away from the opportunity. And that’s why I’d look at an absolute success like this: beat Florida, LSU, and Kentucky, and you’ll go to Athens on November 5 with a chance to move into first place in the SEC East. No matter what you did against Alabama. (Or Pittsburgh.)
It’s all hypothetical about whether Tennessee can beat Georgia at this point. But if you want that opportunity to really count, you get there by way of Florida, LSU, and Kentucky.
The composite recruiting rankings at 247 go back to 2000. That February, the Vols signed five five-stars – pretty good! – including Michael Munoz, Jason Respert, and Casey Clausen. The next two years, Tennessee signed three five-stars each February, giving the program 11 five-stars from 2000-2002.
From 2003-2023, the program has 14 five-stars. And the Vols have never signed more than two in the same class since ’02.
Even getting two became a rare feat. After that run in the early 2000s, each Vol coach (more or less) had just one signing class that included a pair of five stars:
Phillip Fulmer did it in 2007 with Eric Berry and Ben Martin
Some combination of Lane Kiffin and Derek Dooley did it in February 2010 with Da’Rick Rogers and Ja’Wuan James
Butch Jones did it in 2015 with Kahlil McKenzie and Kyle Phillips
Jeremy Pruitt did it in 2019 with Darnell Wright & Wanya Morris
And now, Josh Heupel happily joins the list with Nico Iamaleava and Chandavian Bradley.
One thing that’s increasingly been an issue for Tennessee, and maybe for everyone via the transfer portal: getting your highest-rated recruits to actually become your highest-rated players over multiple years.
Nico and Bradley look like they’ll be the top two players in this year’s class. Addison Nichols and Tyre West will see action for the first time this fall as the highest-rated players in the Class of 2022. Before them, the players at the top of Tennessee’s board haven’t always turned into sure things, even beyond the most recent coaching turnover:
Chandler and Morris started for the Vols over multiple seasons before transferring out. Jarrett Guarantano would be on this list from 2016, joining other names like Marquez North and Da’Rick Rogers who did some really good things in a Tennessee uniform, but whose careers ultimately led elsewhere.
And, as we know, coaching changes can lead to wipeouts of entire classes of elite prospects. Pruitt’s highest-rated class in 2019 thankfully retains Darnell Wright, who has a chance to be one of Tennessee’s best players this fall. But its next three highest-rated players were Wanya Morris, Henry To’oTo’o, and Quavaris Crouch. The 2020 group thankfully retains Omari Thomas, who will have a chance to make a big impact on the defensive line this fall. But three of its four highest-rated players were Keyshawn Lawrence, Harrison Bailey, and Malachi Wideman.
And the calendar worked hard against the 2021 group, with early signees inking with Jeremy Pruitt in December 2020 before he was let go in January of 2021. Aaron Willis, Kaemen Marley, Kaidon Salter, and Julian Nixon have all left the program.
So that’s all four of Tennessee’s highest-rated signees in 2021, three of four in 2020, and three of four in 2019 who left the program.
Don’t underestimate the job this current staff is doing.
The transfer portal shows no signs of disappearing, and the portal can giveth too: Hendon Hooker is one of many examples of how the Vols used the portal to speed up a rebuild that could have been otherwise crippling.
In the meantime, Heupel is recruiting at the peak of what any of his post-Fulmer predecessors were able to accomplish with five-stars. Despite x number of years of struggle, Tennessee can clearly still attract and earn commitments from the best in college football. If Heupel can simply provide stability, more of those players might stick around longer than we’ve seen with the last group. And there is plenty of excitement that this staff will do far more than just be stable.
Earlier this week, we revisited our list from last summer of Tennessee’s best and worst surprises. Using data from Phil Steele’s all access online, we tracked the Vols against the spread going all the way back to 1985, looking for the games they most over-and-under-performed. On Tuesday, we did the ten worst. Today: the fun part.
Tennessee’s 10 Best Performances Against the Spread, 1985-Present
9a. 1993 South Carolina: favored by 20, won 55-3
9b. 1993 at Kentucky: favored by 16, won 48-0
Heath Shuler’s Vols were not to be trifled with. In the Steve Tanneyhill revenge game, Charlie Garner had a 60-yard touchdown run on the second play of the game, and the Vols never looked back. The ’93 Kentucky squad made the Peach Bowl, the Cats’ first postseason appearance in nine years. Tennessee destroyed them 48-0. Again, this team is the program’s high-water mark in SP+ in the last five decades for a reason.
8. 1989 at UCLA: 15-point underdogs, won 24-6
The genesis of Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001. In week two, the Bruins were ranked sixth and hosted the Vols on a late night in Pasadena. UCLA went for it on 4th-and-1 at the UT 37 on their opening drive, and the defense held. From there, the Vols introduced the world to freshman tailback Chuck Webb: 134 yards and two scores, plus 78 more from Reggie Cobb. The program was off and running, en route to back-to-back SEC titles in 1989-90, and more to come. Read more from the LA Times.
6a. 1985 vs Miami (Sugar Bowl): 7-point underdogs, won 35-7
One of the most famous nights in the history of Tennessee football. I was four years old, so I carry no memories from the game itself, but spent much of the next four years being shown the highlights on that old SugarVols VHS tape, before the ’89 team made its own memories.
6b. 2004 vs Texas A&M (Cotton Bowl): 4-point underdogs, won 38-7
Tennessee was the higher-ranked team, but the Vols were down to third-string quarterback Rick Clausen. No matter: he went 18-of-27 for 222 yards with three touchdowns, and the Vol defense ambushed the Aggies in forcing five turnovers. This capped a 10-3 season, still the last time the Vols lost fewer than four games in a year.
5. 2010 Ole Miss: favored by 2.5, won 52-14
Tyler Bray’s coming out party in Knoxville. When we first looked at this list last summer, we noted this game as the high-water mark against the spread in the post-Fulmer era, and talked about the power of a team finding its quarterback. There are no guarantees, of course: Bray’s revelation at the end of his freshman year led to an injury as a sophomore and a bunch of high-scoring losses as a junior. But that late span created real momentum for the program going forward, something Hendon Hooker knows a thing or two about…
3a. 1985 at Kentucky: favored by 4, won 42-0
As good as the Sugar Bowl romp over #2 Miami was, the ’85 Vols were even better relative to expectations in the Bluegrass that year. When Tony Robinson went down to injury and was replaced at quarterback by Daryl Dickey, the Vols took some time to restart the offense. They tied Georgia Tech 6-6 and only scored 17 points in a win at Memphis State. Kentucky came into this one playing for bowl eligibility, and beat the Vols in Knoxville the year before. Not this time: the 42-0 shutout moved the Vols into the Top 10.
3b. 1990 Florida: favored by 4, won 45-3
Here’s the high-water mark in Neyland Stadium. Up 7-3 at halftime, Dale Carter took the second half kickoff to the house, and engaged the floodgates. The Vols routed Steve Spurrier’s Gators in a Top 10 clash, making this the benchmark for blowouts in both rivalry and elite competition categories. This is the fourth appearance for a Johnny Majors team in this Top 10.
2. 2021 at Missouri: 2.5-point underdogs, won 62-24
Maybe the Missouri game isn’t your dominant image from last fall; the win over South Carolina was in Knoxville, and it felt like we were beating a better team in the moment. The win at Kentucky was a ranked dub in a close game. But historically speaking, this one is incredibly significant. Going back to at least 1985, we’ve only seen one game where the Vols over-performed expectations via Vegas better than this. And for a Tennessee program that just saw its worst performance relative to expectation the previous season? There was credibility earned here on a level that we hadn’t experienced from a year one coach, a delightful surprise that we might look back on as a tone-setter for something more. From last fall: Announce My Presence With Authority.
1. 1994 at Vanderbilt: favored by 12, won 65-0
The largest margin of victory via shutout in modern UT history. Total yards: Tennessee 655, Vanderbilt 212. The Commodores came into this one 5-5 and looking for bowl eligibility. Instead, they got this. Freshman Peyton Manning was hitting his stride, but this day was as much about the talent gap as anything. Overperforming the spread by 53 points, this is far and away Tennessee’s best performance relative to expectation at kickoff since at least 1985.
In the negative department, four of Tennessee’s five worst performances against the spread post-Fulmer came from 2017-2020, and each of those happened in Knoxville. There’s a reason it felt the way it did walking out of the stadium.
So then, we wondered how much a good surprise might be worth to Josh Heupel in year one. And that’s exactly what we got: the Vols went to Missouri at +2.5 on October 2, and won 62-24. That 40.5-point over-performance was the best of the post-Fulmer era, topping Tyler Bray’s coming out party in Knoxville against Ole Miss in 2010 (a 52-14 win at -2.5). And it was indeed no fluke: the Vols over-performed the line by 14.5 points the very next week against South Carolina, and off we went.
I don’t know if the Missouri game is your dominant image from 2021. But historically, it might be the most significant outcome from last fall.
So looking forward to 2022, I celebrated two holidays this weekend: Independence Day, and Phil Steele’s arrival. If you love stats and history, I highly recommend his online access, which includes every team’s performance against the spread going back some 40 years. So I spent some time these past few days digging deeper than just the post-Fulmer era on these questions: what are Tennessee’s best and worst performances against the spread? And how high on those lists do the struggles of 2017-2020 and the unexpected delight of 2021 rank?
I went back as far as 1985, using that SEC Championship season as a benchmark for both my lifespan and our modern conversation. We’ll save the best for last, and look at Tennessee’s best performances against the spread later this week. Today, here’s a look at Tennessee’s worst performances against the spread. Can’t appreciate the good without the context!
Tennessee’s 10 Worst Performances Against the Spread, 1985-Present
10. 1993 vs Penn State (Citrus Bowl): favored by 10, lost 31-13
We’ll see more from Heath Shuler’s squad tomorrow, which was so dominant it confused Vegas more than once, then did so again in the finale. This team, still Tennessee’s all-time best in SP+, lost at Florida by seven and tied Alabama in Birmingham. They destroyed everyone else. And then in the bowl game, they took a 10-0 lead…before Penn State closed on a 31-3 run. Ki-Jana Carter ran for 108 of their 209 yards, and the Nittany Lions had their second bowl victory over Tennessee in three years.
9. 1999 Memphis: favored by 30, won 17-16
Beware the orange pants! With everyone expecting bloodshed following the events of the next game on our list, the defending national champion Vols were perhaps still thinking about the loss at Florida the previous week. Tennessee needed a last minute drive to get the win on a very nervous homecoming Saturday. This was my freshman year at UT, and I’m not sure I’ve ever spent more of a game thinking about how bad it would be to lose. But we didn’t!
8. 1996 at Memphis: favored by 26, lost 21-17
Kevin Cobb was down.
6a. 1988 Washington State: favored by 3, lost 52-24
An 0-4 start became 0-5, with Tennessee surrendering more than 600 yards of offense. A Host of Volunteers has a great podcast about the 1988 season, which started 0-6 but ended 5-0, setting the table for Tennessee’s golden era to begin in 1989.
6b. 2017 Georgia: 10-point underdogs, lost 41-0
Tennessee’s run on the national scene from 2015-16 came to a firm halt on this day, dominated by Kirby Smart’s year two Bulldogs in Knoxville.
4a. 1995 Vanderbilt: favored by 32, won 12-7
This line will make more sense when you see what happened in this match-up the previous year. In the 1995 regular season finale, the Vols were ranked fifth, but almost stumbled the week before in Lexington. Against Woody Widenhofer’s year one Commodores, the Vols struggled offensively, but got the job done in a 12-7 victory. (The next two years against Vanderbilt, with some guy named Manning at quarterback: 14-7, 17-10). The Vols struggled into the Citrus Bowl…then beat maybe the most talented team they’ve ever faced from Ohio State.
4b. 2007 at Florida: 7-point underdogs, lost 59-20
An odd game, but not for this rivalry. Florida led 28-13 and was driving for the putaway score in the third quarter, when true freshman Eric Berry picked sophomore Tim Tebow and raced back 96 yards for a score. The Vols got a stop, and got the ball back down 28-20 with five minutes to play in the third quarter. And then, disaster: an Arian Foster fumble was returned for a touchdown, followed by a 99-yard Florida drive, followed by, followed by, followed by. The Gators scored 31 unanswered in the final 20 minutes, giving the Vols their worst margin-of-victory loss of the Fulmer era. Tebow won the Heisman, but the Vols would rebound to win the SEC East.
3. 2019 Georgia State: favored by 24.5, lost 31-23
This game had a chance to play in some real positive history at UT, as the 2019 Vols eventually rebounded from this disaster to finish the year on a six game win streak. The fallout for the Jeremy Pruitt era in 2020 severed that potential chain, leaving this one as one of two notable examples for getting stunned at home by a mid-major, along with…
2. 2008 Wyoming: favored by 27, lost 13-7
The margin of upset is wider here by half a point. But given what was happening at the time, I do think the Georgia State loss hurt more; at this stage in 2008, Fulmer was out, and the team played like it.
1. 2020 Kentucky: favored by 6.5, lost 34-7
Going back through at least 1985, this is Tennessee’s worst performance relative to the spread. The pick sixes in the first half set the tone, and Kentucky’s offense was able to finish things off in the second. The Vols have been blown out by more, for sure, but have never performed so poorly relative to what we thought would happen at kick-off, at least via Vegas standards.
Which is why it’s so amazing to know what they did against Missouri in the opposite direction just one year later. More on that later this week.
It was kind of USC and UCLA, all things considered, to let their news loose on June 30. Nine weeks til kickoff, three weeks til SEC Media Days, baseball season moving into the rear view. It’s great content, thanks!
So now, is there a great version of where all this might be headed for Tennessee?
To me, two questions guide the thought process for the SEC moving forward:
Who makes it worth it to continue to expand?
How big is too big?
Football takes the lead on all of this, so a lot of what we’ll look at here in terms of size and scope is based on football scheduling. But I think you have to start with, “Would the league be good at 16 no matter what else happens?”
Who makes it worth it to continue to expand?
Back in the early pandemic days when we were uncertain when football would be played again, we had some fun building a 32-team football superconference. The framework we used is the same one making the decisions now, as usual: which programs are most valuable?
From that 2018 list from the Wall Street Journal, we found 13 programs valued at more than $500 million. With Texas and Oklahoma coming to the SEC, each of those 13 programs was already slated for the Big Ten or the SEC…except for Notre Dame. The Irish remain the white whale in this exercise (which makes them even less likely to be on any fantasy SEC radars).
From there, another 19 programs were valued at $250+ million. Those 32 teams represent:
11 of 14 current SEC programs (soon 13 of 16 with Texas/OU)
8 of 14 current Big Ten programs (soon 10 of 16 with USC/UCLA)
4 of 10 current Big 12 programs, with wide disparity between Texas/OU and Kansas State/Oklahoma State
5 of 12 current Pac 12 programs
3 of 14 current ACC programs
Notre Dame
If the SEC and Big Ten remain committed to their existing structures, the biggest winners yesterday were Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Missouri, Purdue, etc. Those programs get a seat at the big table they wouldn’t be able to pull up to on their own.
Based on those 2018 Wall Street Journal rankings, after Notre Dame the next two most valuable programs outside the current 32 team SEC & Big Ten are Oregon and Washington. Again, unlikely to be considered for the SEC. As Stewart Mandel points out in his overarching piece in The Athletic, Oregon holds a lot of power here. If they want to stay, the Pac-12 has a future. If they want to go and the Big Ten is willing to say yes, we’re deep down the path to the Big 2.
From an SEC perspective, in value the two most obvious targets are Clemson and Florida State. Those are three of your last nine national championships, and Clemson just played for another in 2019. Those two would get you to 18. If you wanted to expand from there? Virginia Tech is the next most valuable football program in the ACC, the last in the $250+ million club. Miami is further down the list (behind Georgia Tech among ACC schools, but that seems unlikely from a football perspective), but certainly adds name recognition, history, and expands the footprint.
One other thought among many: the SEC’s last two rounds of expansion always went outside existing territories and rivalries: Arkansas and South Carolina in 1992, Missouri and Texas A&M in 2012. Would South Carolina and Florida protest the most obvious additions of Clemson and Florida State, even in this landscape?
If so, I wonder about Duke and North Carolina from an all-sports perspective, which would immediately change the calculus in basketball. If Duke is a no go for various reasons, North Carolina and Virginia Tech would still fit the previous model.
Here’s the real question: how many of these teams are worth it?
And if the league decides they’re good at 16, would they still be good if the Big Ten went shopping? Does a 16-team SEC still carry enough weight to lead the conversation if the Big Ten adds Clemson, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Washington?
Some of this will also get down to the future of the College Football Playoff. Does the SEC view the Big Ten as an equal, or at least equalish? As early as 2026, could we see the champion of the SEC play the champion of the Big Ten, and nevermind what anyone else thinks?
There are plenty of dominoes to fall from there, including future non-conference scheduling, etc. But there is certainly a scenario where the SEC looks at all of this, even potential future expansion from the Big Ten, and says, “Nah, we’re good.”
If the league does say yes to expansion, then…
How big is too big?
Let’s start with what feels like the football move that would earn the most head nods: add Clemson and Florida State to go to 18, then stop there. At that point, the league doesn’t need Miami, or the North Carolina and Virginia markets to make that case that it clearly has the only championship-caliber argument in the south.
For scheduling purposes, we’ll attempt to stick to the one thing everyone seems to agree on: teams in the same conference need to play each other more often! Eighteen teams lends itself to two models:
One annual rivalry, then rotate the other eight opponents every year.
Five annual rivalries, then rotate four other opponents every three years.
One annual rivalry among 18 teams is a mess, particularly for a team like Tennessee. A quick pass at what made the most sense to me left the Vols and their opponent with the third-best option every year:
Alabama vs Auburn
Florida vs Florida State
Clemson vs South Carolina
Georgia vs Tennessee
Texas A&M vs LSU
Texas vs Oklahoma
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
Arkansas vs Missouri
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt
Maybe it’s moderately fair, and in this system you’re seeing everyone every other year anyway. But in this format, games like Alabama/Tennessee, Florida/Georgia, Auburn/Georgia, etc. are getting played on home fields only once every four years. Seems unlikely, even in the midst of so many traditions falling by the wayside.
Five annual rivalries with four rotating opponents? Let’s get nuts.
18-Team SEC, Five Annual Rivalries (Plus 4 rotating opponents)
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Tennessee
Texas A&M
Clemson
Arkansas
LSU
Missouri
Texas A&M
Mississippi St
Texas
Auburn
Alabama
Georgia
LSU
Mississippi St
Florida State
Clemson
South Carolina
Florida State
Georgia
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Florida
Georgia
Florida State
Tennessee
South Carolina
Kentucky
Florida State
Florida
Clemson
Auburn
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Auburn
South Carolina
Clemson
Tennessee
Kentucky
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Florida
Mississippi St
Missouri
LSU
Arkansas
Alabama
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Auburn
Mississippi St
Ole Miss
Arkansas
Auburn
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Missouri
Arkansas
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Texas
Kentucky
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
LSU
Vanderbilt
Oklahoma
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M
Missouri
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
South Carolina
Clemson
Missouri
Georgia
Florida
Florida State
Tennessee
Kentucky
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Florida
Georgia
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Missouri
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Texas
Arkansas
LSU
Oklahoma
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Kentucky
Ole Miss
Florida State
Clemson
It’s imperfect, for sure, and carries some compromise for many, especially new additions like Oklahoma with few natural fits for so many protected rivalries. But for a team like Tennessee (and others), this system preserves every one of our biggest rivalries, then you’d see everyone else every three years, and in Neyland every six years.
So in addition to playing Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt every year, you’d get something like this:
YEAR A: Clemson, at Texas A&M, at Texas, Missouri
YEAR B: at LSU, Florida State, Ole Miss, at Mississippi State
YEAR C: Oklahoma, at Auburn, at South Carolina, Arkansas
(then switch the home-and-away for the next three years)
Or go to 20, and you’ve got:
20-Team SEC, Four Annual Rivalries (Plus 5 Rotating Opponents)
Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
LSU
Ole Miss
Arkansas
LSU
Missouri
Texas
Texas A&M
Auburn
Alabama
Georgia
Mississippi St
LSU
Clemson
South Carolina
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Miami
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Tennessee
South Carolina
Florida State
Florida
Miami
Clemson
Virginia Tech
Georgia
Florida
Auburn
South Carolina
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Mississippi St
Virginia Tech
LSU
Arkansas
Alabama
Texas A&M
Auburn
Miami
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Clemson
South Carolina
Mississippi St
Ole Miss
Auburn
Kentucky
Missouri
Missouri
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Mississippi St
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M
Missouri
Ole Miss
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Clemson
Georgia
Florida
Miami
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Florida
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Missouri
Texas A&M
Texas
Oklahoma
LSU
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Kentucky
Ole Miss
Georgia
Virginia Tech
Miami
Florida State
Clemson
Kentucky
No matter which way you do it, there are compromises. These are just first draft ideas.
These exercises are fun, especially in July. Are either of them better for Tennessee than the SEC staying put at 16 teams?
The real answer to that question, I think: what will access to the College Football Playoff look like?
You need enough carrots out there for everyone in your league, as we wrote when Oklahoma and Texas headed our way last July. One way to make such a thing at least possible: an eight-team SEC playoff, which would instantly become a pass/fail benchmark for the entire league. Send the winner to face the champion of the BIG Whatever, and you’ve got a deal…it’s just one that cuts out everyone else in college football from the national championship chase.
If the sport isn’t headed in that direction, you’re still talking about x number of SEC teams chasing College Football Playoff bids…but for the rest? Is the Outback Bowl or whatever it’s called today still going to cut it when an increased playing field inherently leads to more losses to go around?
I don’t know the answer to these questions, though I do enjoy the conversation.
The best thing Tennessee can do: keep getting better.
