Category Archives: Football

The USA Today Coaches’ Poll was released Monday and, to the surprise of some Tennessee fans, the Vols weren’t ranked among the top 25 teams in the country. Instead, fans had to count down three spots to #28, putting the Vols just outside the Top 25, right behind Iowa and Penn State. Also coming in ahead of Tennessee in the poll was border rival Kentucky (#21), as well as Week 2 opponent, Pittsburgh (#16).

So how have the Vols fared in the polls over the years? I took a look back at every poll since 1997 to see where Tennessee was ranked preseason, how they moved week-to-week, and most importantly, where they ended up at season’s end. It was an emotional exercise, complete with great memories: watching James Wilhoit kick a 50-yard field goal to beat Florida my freshman year at UT, or Jauan Jennings beating Jalen Tabor and streaking into the south end zone in 2016. It also had its share of pain: the 2016 loss to Vanderbilt that cost Tennessee a spot in the Sugar Bowl. Or watching a trip to the national championship snatched away by an 8-3 LSU team led by a backup quarterback in the 2001 SEC Championship Game.

Read More: How important is figuring out the #2 RB?

If you don’t have the time to read through each season’s ranking summary, here are a few key facts from my time poring over the polls:

• Tennessee has only finished the season ranked higher than they started six times since 1997:
  • 1998: Started #10, ended #1
  • 2001: started #8, ended #4
  • 2004: started #14, ended #13
  • 2007: started #15, ended #12
  • 2015: started #25, ended #23
  • 2019: started #55 (Coaches’ Poll), ended #35
• The Vols have started the season ranked in the Top 25 and ended it unranked four times since 1997:
  • 2000: #12
  • 2002: #5
  • 2008: #18
  • 2017: #25
• 2020 was the only year since 1997 that the Vols started the season outside the Top 25 (#26) and made it into the rankings, peaking at #12 before the 10-game SEC COVID schedule took its toll.
• The Vols #12 ranking in the final poll of 2007 would be the last time the team would be ranked at season’s end until 2015.
• When the Vols finished the 2007 season ranked #12, it would be 8 full seasons before they would achieve a higher ranking.

Here’s a detailed breakdown by year. Note that all rankings are from the AP Poll, unless otherwise noted.

Year-by-Year Poll Results

1997

Preseason: #5
Final: #7
Highest Rank: #3 (3 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #9 (4 weeks)
Weeks Unranked: 0

Tennessee kicked off the season ranked #5 in the country, and managed to hold a top-10 ranking all season long. The Vols held the #3 ranking three different weeks in Peyton Manning’s final season in orange, and took that ranking into an Orange Bowl matchup with #2 Nebraska. A loss to the Cornhuskers dropped Tennessee to #7 in the final AP poll.

1998

Preseason: #10
Final: #1
Highest Rank: #1 (6 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #10 (preseason)
Weeks Unranked: 0

The Vols only fell in the polls once in 1998, when they dropped from #3 to #4 after a 17-9 victory over Auburn on the Plains in Week 5. There was nowhere to go but up after that; the Vols secured the #1 ranking after taking down UAB in Knoxville on November 7 and rode it all the way to the National Championship. 

1999

Preseason: #2
Final: #9
Highest Rank: #2 (2 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #9 (final)
Weeks Unranked: 0

A team led by National Championship-winning quarterback Tee Martin finished the year 9-3, but an early season loss to #4 Florida in Gainesville, and a 4-point loss to unranked Arkansas in mid-November stifled Tennessee’s hopes to repeat as national champions. The #6 Vols fell to #3 Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl, ending the season ranked #9 in the country. 

2000

Preseason: #12
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #11 (2 weeks)
Lowest Rank: Unranked 
Weeks Unranked: 6

In Phillip Fulmer’s eighth season with the Vols, the team finished 8-4 (5-3 SEC),  going undefeated in regular season play after freshman quarterback Casey Clausen took the reins against Alabama. However, three early losses to #6 Florida, LSU and #19 Georgia knocked the Vols from the rankings until the final week against Vanderbilt when the #25 Vols squeaked by the Commodores 28-26. The #21 Vols fell to #11 Kansas State in the Cotton Bowl to end the year unranked in the final AP Poll. 

2001

Preseason: #8
Final: #4
Highest Rank: #2 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: #13 (1 week)
Weeks Unranked: 0

“I still have PTSD about 2002. Shoulda been our year to win it all and legitimize ‘98 even more.”

“I took a rose to school the Friday before [the SEC Championship]. So hard to face the Bama fans the following Monday.

”Matty [freakin’] Mauck.”

These were the responses from a group text of Vols fans I’m in as we discussed what could have been from the 2001 season. Despite an early October loss to unranked Georgia that dropped Tennessee to #11, the #2 Vols were a win in Atlanta away from facing #1 Miami in the Rose Bowl, but lost to #20 LSU in the Tigers first trip to the SEC Championship. In fact, since it was first played in 1992, LSU’s ‘01 win was the only time the SEC Championship has prevented an SEC team from playing for a national championship. 

2002

Preseason: #5
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: 4 (4 weeks)
Lowest Rank: Unranked
Weeks Unranked: 7

Tennessee never beat a ranked team in ‘02, finishing the season 8-4 (5-3 SEC). Losses to #10 Florida, #6 Georgia and #19 Alabama pushed the Vols to #25 headed to a November 9 matchup with #2 Miami. A 26-3 Hurricanes drubbing in front of 108,000+ at Neyland Stadium knocked the Vols out of the Top 25 for good, although the team did finish #27 in the final Coaches’ Poll.

2003

Preseason: #12
Final: #15
Highest Rank: #7 (3 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #22 (1 week)
Weeks Unranked: 0

Behind Clausen, now in his senior year, the Vols finished 9-3 (6-2 SEC) with a win over #17 Florida, and revenge against #6 Miami for the previous year’s shellacking in Knoxville. Unfortunately, the Vols fell from #7 to #22 after back-to-back losses to unranked Auburn and #8 Georgia. UT got hot and snapped off six wins in a row to work their way to #6 before losing to Clemson in Atlanta. 

2004

Preseason: #14
Final: #15
Highest Rank: #6 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: #17 (2 weeks)
Weeks Unranked: 0

After a two big wins over UNLV and Louisiana Tech, and a James Wilhoit field goal to beat Florida, the Vols worked their way to #10 in the country, setting up a top-10 matchup between the Vols and #8 Auburn. With College Gameday on campus, the Tigers’ Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown ran up and down Shields-Watkins Field, handing the Vols a 34-10 beating. Tennessee slipped to #17 the week after, but a win at #3 Georgia turned things around. #15 Tennessee fell in a rematch with #3 Auburn in Atlanta, before knocking off #22 Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl, to end the year at #15. 

2005

Preseason: #3
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #3 (preseason)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 7

With quarterback Erik Ainge entering his second season on Rocky Top, hopes were high in Knoxville, with a preseason #3 ranking to match. A close win over UAB, followed by a loss to #5 Florida (the first in a long string to the Gators) knocked the Vols down to #10. After wins at LSU and against Ole Miss, the Vols then dropped three in a row to #5 Georgia, #5 Alabama and South Carolina to drop all the way out of the rankings. Losses to Notre Dame and Vanderbilt sealed the team’s fate and the Vols missed a bowl game for the first time since 1998.

2006

Preseason: #23
Final: #25
Highest Rank: #7 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: #25 (final)
Weeks Unranked: 0

Despite their disastrous 2005 campaign, the Vols managed to snag a Top-25 ranking in the preseason AP Poll. A dominant win over #9 Cal in Knoxville catapulted the Vols to #11 in the country, but a narrow win over Air Force, followed by a 1-point loss to Florida dropped Tennessee to #15. A streak of 5 wins, including victories over #10 Georgia and the team’s last win over Alabama, pushed Tennessee back up to #8, but losses to #13 LSU and #11 Arkansas dropped Tennessee to #22. UT climbed up to #17 after beating Vandy and Kentucky, but a loss to #17 Penn State pushed the Vols down to #25 in the final poll. 

2007

Preseason: #15
Final: #12
Highest Rank: #12 (final)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 4

The Vols traveled west to take on Cal in the opening game of the 2007 campaign, and the Golden Bears got payback against Tennessee for their 2006 loss with a 45-31 win in Berkeley. The loss dropped Tennessee to #24, and #3 Florida would knock the Vols out of the rankings with a 59-20 dismantling in Gainesville. After a win over #12 Georgia, the Vols scratched back to #25, but a loss to first-year Bama head coach Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa pushed UT out of the rankings. Five straight wins got the Vols to #14 and the SEC Championship against LSU. After losing to the eventual national champion Tigers, the #16 Vols downed #18 Wisconsin to secure their #12 ranking. Little did fans know that the #12 slot would be their highest ranking until 2016. 

2008

Preseason: #18
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #18 (preseason)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

The beginning of the dark years. The Vols entered the 2008 season ranked #18. An overtime loss to unranked UCLA at the Rose Bowl knocked Tennessee from the Top 25. They wouldn’t be back for six whole seasons.

2009

Preseason: #52 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #35 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

A win over #21 South Carolina on Halloween in black Adidas jerseys was the highpoint of the season, which ended with a 37-14 loss to #12 Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

2010

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: Not Ranked
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

Following Lane Kiffin’s brief stint on Rocky Top, the Derek Dooley Show came to town. Tennessee would finish the year 6-6 (3-5 SEC), failing to beat any ranked teams and falling to North Carolina in the Music City Bowl.

2011

Preseason: #40 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #32 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

In Dooley’s second season, Tennessee flirted with the “Also Receiving Votes” column of the Coaches’ Poll for a few weeks. Outside of a win over #12 (FCS) Montana, though, Tennessee faithful had little to cheer about, as the team finished 5-7 (1-7 SEC).

2012

Preseason: #41 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #23
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

The Derek Dooley Experiment, complete with hygiene lessons and World War II analogies, mercifully ended before the last week of the season, but not before the Vols racked up another 1-7 SEC season, beating only Kentucky under interim head coach Jim Chaney. Big wins over NC State and Georgia State had the Vols at #23, before the team suffered its annual loss to Florida in Week 3.

2013

Preseason: #50 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #43 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

Butch Jones got a signature “Year 1” win over #11 South Carolina in Knoxville, but only managed one other SEC win, a 27-14 victory in Lexington. Early wins over Austin Peay and Western Kentucky pushed Tennessee up to #43 in the Coaches’ Poll, but they didn’t make any poll noise after that.

2014

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: Not Ranked
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 16

Tennessee managed to eek out three SEC wins against South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and played #12 Georgia close in Athens, but the Vols didn’t manage to earn a vote in either poll. The team did finish the year over .500 with a win over Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

2015

Preseason: #25
Final: #22
Highest Rank: #22 (final)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 5

Back in the preseason Top 25 for the first time since 2008, the Vols’ time there would be short-lived after a crushing double-overtime loss to Baker Mayfield and #19 Oklahoma. Losses to unranked Florida and Arkansas pushed UT out of the “Also Receiving Votes” column. A five-game winning streak leading into a huge 45-6 win over #12 Northwestern in the Outback Bowl led announcer Mark Jones to predict 2016 would be the year of the Volunteers. Tennessee would finish the year ranked #22, their first spot in the final poll since 2007. 

2016

Preseason: #9
Final: #24
Highest Rank: #9 (2 weeks)
Lowest Rank: #30 (Coaches’ Poll)
Weeks Unranked: 5

Mark Jones was half-correct. The first half of the 2016 season would be the year of the Volunteer. Tennessee started the year off white-hot, tallying five straight victories, including a win over #19 Florida and #25 Georgia (thanks Jauan). Despite a double-overtime loss to Texas A&M, the Vols held onto their #9 ranking going into a contest with #1 Alabama in Knoxville. A 39-point loss to the Crimson TIde, followed by a loss to unranked South Carolina in Columbia knocked Tennessee from the ranks. They would claw their way back to #24 before a loss to Vanderbilt cost them their ranking and a shot at the Sugar Bowl. The team managed to salvage a second consecutive final rank – this time #24 – with a 38-24 win over Nebraska in the Music City Bowl.

2017

Preseason: #25
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #23 (1 week)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 13

What a disaster. Ranked #25 coming into the season, Tennessee would finish 4-8 (0-8 SEC). Early wins over Georgia Tech and Indiana State moved Tennessee up to #23 in the AP Poll before a 26-20 loss to Florida on a last second touchdown pass by Feleipe Franks knocked the Vols from the rankings. A 41-0 loss to Georgia two weeks later closed the door on Tennessee’s hopes to regain their ranking. Butch Jones would be shown the door before a November 18 showdown with LSU.

2018

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: Not Ranked
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

Despite wins over #21 Auburn in October and #12 Kentucky in November, Tennessee failed to sniff the rankings in 2018, ending the season with a 5-7 (2-6 SEC) record, including a 38-13 loss to Vanderbilt to close the season with a whimper.

2019

Preseason: #55 (Coaches’ Poll)
Final: #35 (Coaches’ Poll)
Highest Rank: #35 (final; Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

An opening week disaster against Georgia State prevented the Vols from a shot at a nine-win season. UT failed to beat a ranked team in 2019, falling to #9 Florida, #3 Georgia and #1 Alabama by a combined score of 112-30. A bowl win against Indiana garnered the Vols a few votes in the final Coaches’ Poll of the year,

2020

Preseason: #25
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #12
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 10

Facing the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and a 10-game SEC slate, the Vols were ranked #16 before their first game due to scheduling differences. Tennessee climbed to #14 after wins over South Carolina and Missouri, but six straight losses quickly ended that. Tennessee managed to scratch out a win over Vanderbilt in December, before losing the final contest of the year to Texas A&M. 

2021

Preseason: Not Ranked
Final: Not Ranked
Highest Rank: #36 (Coaches’ Poll)
Lowest Rank: Not Ranked
Weeks Unranked: 15

Despite flashes of brilliance under first year head coach Josh Heupel, the Vols never strung together enough victories together to make much poll noise in 2021. The highlight of the year came in an upset of #18 Kentucky in Lexington. And near misses against Pittsburgh, #13 Ole Miss and Purdue gave UT fans hope for the future.

A few months ago we looked at pass distribution under Josh Heupel at UT and UCF. The big takeaway there: in spite of playing at a faster pace, the wide receiver rotation under Heupel tends to be tighter. Last season Velus Jones and Cedric Tillman had 51.9% of Tennessee’s receptions, the highest total for a UT duo in the post-Fulmer era. Numbers were similar at Central Florida.

So I kind of expected something like this for running backs as well. Tennessee had its first scrimmage yesterday, and with Len’Neth Whitehead out for the year and Lyn-J Dixon on the roster, there’s renewed interest in who will back up Jabari Small.

But once you start digging into the numbers, it’s easy to see there’s much less of a “backup” situation in Heupel’s offense.

Total Percentage of RB Carries at Tennessee (Heupel, Pruitt, Butch)

2021	Jabari Small	37.74%
2020	Eric Gray	54.90%
2019	Ty Chandler	38.46%
2018	Tim Jordan	37.61%
2017	John Kelly	61.76%
2016	Jalen Hurd	35.36%
2015	Jalen Hurd	62.39%
2014	Jalen Hurd	56.89%
2013	Rajion Neal	58.11%

In the last nine seasons, the lead back at UT got 55+% of the total RB carries five times. Jalen Hurd was on his way to making it six before he left the team in 2016. And Jim Chaney had a history of involving multiple guys, but leaned heavily on Eric Gray in his final season at UT.

Jabari Small was dinged up a couple times last year, and could’ve seen his numbers climb higher. He didn’t play against Tennessee Tech, then left the Missouri game after just three carries and missed South Carolina the next week. Perhaps closer to full strength, he had a season high 26 carries against Purdue.

There’s no shortage of excitement about Jabari Small in 2022 coming out of scrimmage one:

That dude.@SwainEvent explained on today's show why Tennessee RB Jabari Small has a chance to break out in a big way this football season.

Listen for more #Vols info here: https://t.co/YPVu883xZ2 or anywhere you listen to podcasts. pic.twitter.com/Esg0oEFE2w

— Josh and Swain (@JoshandSwain) August 9, 2022

So there’s reason to believe Small could just take off with this thing and, when combined with Hendon Hooker and Tennessee’s passing game, the UT offense is in sensational hands. But when you look at Heupel’s history, those hands have always included at least one other running back getting significantly involved, and often more than one:

(if the chart looks weird, turn your phone sideways)

Total Percentage of RB Carries under Josh Heupel, 2018-21

Year	Team	RB Carries	RB	Carries	Pct.
2021	Tennessee	371	Jabari Small	140	37.74%
			Jaylen Wright	85	22.91%
			Tiyon Evans	81	21.83%
2020	UCF	365	Greg McCrae	149	40.82%
			Otis Anderson	125	34.25%
			B. Thompson	73	20.00%
2019	UCF	418	Otis Anderson	113	27.03%
			Greg McCrae	98	23.44%
			B. Thompson	87	20.81%
			Adrian Killins	87	20.81%
2018	UCF	431	Adrian Killins	147	34.11%
			Greg McCrae	133	30.86%
			Taj McGowan	71	16.47%

Under Jeremy Pruitt and Butch Jones, the number one back got 55+% of the RB carries more often than not. Under Josh Heupel, the number one back got 40+% of the carries just once.

Maybe some of this is more carries for backups in blowouts. But even in Jabari Small’s season-high 26 carries against Purdue, Jaylen Wright still got 17 carries. The only time the Vols really rode one guy: Jabari Small had 21 carries against Ole Miss, with both Tiyon Evans and Jaylen Wright out. Marcus Pierce got two carries in the fourth quarter.

In this offense, you want your top guy to be great. But you’re still going to need at least your number two, and historically, for much more than we’re used to seeing from the number two at UT. Alvin Kamara had 29.86% of the RB carries in 2016. I don’t think the Vols have an Alvin Kamara as their backup this year. But whoever it is, history says he’s going to get a higher percentage of carries.

And we may not have a 2019 UCF scenario, where the top guy is really four guys. But again, even if Small is both great and healthy, Tennessee is going to need quality touches from its number two. History says the #2 RB matters way more than the #4 WR in this offense.

So…who’s it gonna be?

August isn’t always for the rational. Hope will thrive on campuses across the nation this month, so long as health allows. Everyone is undefeated until August 27 (Nebraska/Northwestern in Ireland! Vanderbilt at Hawaii!). The rest of us will make it until a weekend beginning in just 27 days, when the Vols will help open the festivities on Thursday night.

There is always excitement this time of year. But this one feels unusually high, especially entering a coach’s year two. We’ve had our share of those in the last 15 years; they’re usually marked by some form of, “I think we’ll be better this year, and I’m curious to see how much.” But the Vols were better last year, and by much more than we imagined play-for-play. Tennessee is 18th in Athlon’s preseason Top 25, 11th in Phil Steele’s power poll, and ninth in SP+. I’m curious to see where the Vols land when the “official” polls come out soon.

So there’s normal August excitement, and then there’s this. And this is even a bit tempered by an incredibly successful year on campus across the board: men’s basketball flirted with their best season ever in KenPom, and baseball had their best regular season ever by just about any standard. We’re not overhyping Tennessee because we’ve been hyper-focused on football for too long.

This is, for sure, “I’m ready to get hurt again,” territory. But that’s the beauty of it! Hope is dangerous! And it’s great!

And sometimes, it pays off.

Rarely in the last 15 years, to be sure. But our question for the moment is, where does the current level of optimism rank among those others? How does your current confidence compare to where it’s been? And probably most important: where should it be?

Here are 10 moments from the last 15 years when we thought we might be onto something, ranked by overall confidence. This is my list; as always, your mileage may vary. But we’d love to know where your current confidence might fall on this list.

Top 10 “We might be back!” Moments of the post-Fulmer Era

Honorable Mention: 2009 Georgia

Not included, because in October 2009 you could tell yourself that we were really only rebuilding instead of doing whatever you want to call the last 15 years.

How long did it last? Through the rest of Lane Kiffin’s first season, until it became Lane Kiffin’s only season.

10. 2012 NC State

Take an anxious off-season after the 2011 loss to Kentucky, one of the most consequential outcomes of the last 15 years. Add in Cordarrelle Patterson and mix it all together in the Georgia Dome. Tennessee’s 35-21 season opening victory over NC State featured 524 yards of offense and tantalizing possibilities.

How long did it last? Two weeks later the Vols were back in the Top 25 for the first time since preseason 2008. We took a 20-13 lead over Florida midway through the third quarter in Knoxville, then stopped a fake punt on the ensuing drive. The Vols had 1st-and-10 at the Florida 47 with 4:45 to play in the third.

That’s how long it lasted. Tyler Bray was hit with intentional grounding on the next play and the Vols punted. From there, Florida had four plays of 30+ yards the rest of the way, including touchdowns of 80 and 75 yards, putting 24 points on the board in the last 18 minutes of play. Sal Sunseri’s defense became a huge question that never got answered.

9. 2014 South Carolina

The only reason this one isn’t higher is because of what happened earlier in the 2014 season, a little further down our list. I still think this is one of the most rewatchable games of the last 15 years, signaling the arrival of Josh Dobbs as Tennessee’s full-time quarterback for the next 2.5 years with 301 through the air and 166 on the ground. And it carries far less of the “yeah, but” quality that marks some of the other games on this list because they didn’t last as long.

How long did it last? The Vols went to 4-5 with this win, and though they came up short to eventual East champs Missouri, they did get bowl eligible, then rocked Iowa in Jacksonville. So in part, this one lasted until the 2015 Oklahoma/Florida sequence.

8. 2018 Auburn

A ranked road win for Jeremy Pruitt in year one. The Vols used the underdog playbook, getting turnovers and a defensive touchdown to secure a 30-24 victory over the Tigers. Not bad for a team that had lost its previous three meetings with ranked teams by 26 points.

How long did it last? After getting rocked by Alabama, the Vols lost a close one at South Carolina. But they rebounded to beat #12 Kentucky 24-7, moving to 5-5. It felt like we were one win away from a lot of things at that point…and then we lost to Missouri by 33 and Vanderbilt by 25.

7. 2011 Cincinnati

Another highly rewatchable game, and still one of the greatest individual performances by a quarterback at UT. Tyler Bray went 34-of-41 for 401 yards and four touchdowns, and Derek Dooley’s Vols beat Butch Jones’ Bearcats 45-23.

How long did it last? The next week in Gainesville, Florida scored on their opening drive, and Justin Hunter blew out his knee on Tennessee’s. Tyler Bray broke his thumb against Georgia two weeks later.

6. 2020 Missouri

Nothing sexy about the individual win, though Eric Gray and Ty Chandler combined for 195 on the ground. But this made eight wins in a row for the Vols (four of them by one possession over Kentucky, Missouri, Indiana, and South Carolina, he said ominously in hindsight…). Due to the pandemic, the Vols were in the Top 15 for the first time since 2007.

How long did it last? At least 30 minutes at Georgia the next week. The next 30 minutes could’ve been written up to Georgia’s talent. The next week vs Kentucky could not.

5. 2014 Week of the Florida game

The 2014 Vols smashed internet darlings Utah State 38-7 in the opener. They were game at Oklahoma for a while before falling. And they almost, almost got Georgia in Athens before falling 35-32. Meanwhile, Will Muschamp was on the hot seat: 4-8 in 2013, then a three overtime survivor against Kentucky, then lost 42-21 to Alabama. The game was in Knoxville, we checkered Neyland for the first time (eight years ago, hard to believe!), third down for what, all of that. We didn’t just think we were going to win. We thought we were going to exorcise. “Every star that could possibly be aligned is burning our shade of orange,” he wrote foolishly.

How long did it last? Florida won 10-9.

4. Right Now

A lot of what’s written up there is about hearts and feelings and the alignment of stars. A lot of what’s being said right now is about power rankings and efficiency (and five star recruits!). This team beat Missouri by 38 and South Carolina by 25 last year. They already got the ranked road win. And to some degree, their version of heartbreak is somewhat rightfully defined by conversations about officiating instead of questions about management. In SP+, the 2021 Vols were the second-best Tennessee team of the last 15 years. And yet, by our old standards, these Vols haven’t done anything yet. And it’s August, and we’re prone to think a lot of things. But one of those things I think: there’s more reason to believe in Tennessee right now than at any point in the last 15 years, save three:

3. 2013 Georgia & South Carolina

A Smokey Gray almost, followed by a ranked win for Butch Jones in year one after none for Derek Dooley. In the moment, with recruiting rankings backing it up, you had more reason to believe the program was on its way than at any point since Kiffin left. And even looking back, that South Carolina team is still the best team this program has beaten in 15 years (#11 at kickoff, #4 in the final poll). We’ll make that point a lot the first time this team gets a Top 15 win.

How long did it last? Justin Worley got hurt against Alabama the next week, sending true freshman Josh Dobbs into the fray. The 2013 schedule is maybe the hardest in program history, sending Dobbs against the East champs from Missouri and the almost-national champs from Auburn. Still, I think these good vibes lasted until the Vanderbilt game, when bowl eligibility was frustratingly lost.

2. 2015 Northwestern

The clear pinnacle of good football vibes lasting a long time. When the Vols torched #15 Northwestern 45-6 in the Outback Bowl, it was our largest margin of victory over a ranked team in 25 years. And more than anything, with the Vols bringing almost everyone back, it set aside the heartbreak of early 2015, and set our sights squarely on championship aspirations for 2016. This was a fun eight months to be a Tennessee Vol.

How long did it last? See below, but I can assure you it stopped being as much fun about 75% of the way through the Appalachian State game.

1. 2016 Florida/Georgia

The clear pinnacle of the last 15 years, a height matched only by its fall. Six years later, the “yeah, but” of two otherwise incredibly rewatchable games is an inescapable part of their story. Still, these games are the champ until Tennessee beats someone more meaningful. And when the Vols do finally escape the wilderness, perhaps we can look back on these two weeks much more fondly, and appreciate them for what they are.

How long did it last? There was enough grace for 351570 turnovers the next week at Texas A&M, and even facing one of the best defenses of all time from Alabama. But the loss at South Carolina cost the Vols the East, and the loss at Vanderbilt cost the Vols the Sugar Bowl. And that meant the cost of losing was ultimately higher than the joy of winning, leaving 2016 like many other years on this list: some great individual moments that could never quite be strung together enough to make the memories of great seasons.

Where would you put right now on this list?

Outside of the tempo-infused stats, the best thing Tennessee did last year was Hendon Hooker’s three interceptions on 303 pass attempts. That number is even more impressive considering how often Hooker was sacked.

Last season the Vols allowed 44 sacks, 124th nationally. And this too wasn’t just a function of Tennessee playing fast: 44 sacks with 376 total passing attempts (Hooker + Milton) means Vol quarterbacks went down on 10.48% of passing plays. That’s the highest total in the post-Fulmer era:

Tennessee Sack Rate Allowed 2009-2021

Year	Sacks Allowed	Passing Att	Sack %
2021	44	376	10.48%
2020	29	285	9.24%
2019	21	360	5.51%
2018	23	297	7.19%
2017	35	319	9.89%
2016	25	379	6.19%
2015	24	371	6.08%
2014	43	453	8.67%
2013	15	344	4.18%
2012	8	477	1.65%
2011	18	400	4.31%
2010	41	419	8.91%
2009	18	401	4.30%

If safety in the passing game was Tennessee’s greatest strength, keeping quarterbacks upright is Tennessee’s greatest area for improvement. And just a little progress can go a very long way.

The Vols lost Cade Mays to the NFL, but bring back everyone else up front. Figuring out who wins the tackle spot opposite Darnell Wright will be a huge piece of the puzzle in fall camp.

Sacks were costly in some of Tennessee’s biggest moments last year. Before the 4th-and-24 against Ole Miss, the Vols had 1st-and-10 at midfield. But a sack and a holding penalty on consecutive plays put the Vols in the aforementioned hole. With a chance to put Kentucky away late, Hooker was sacked twice from 2nd-and-Goal at the 5, ultimately leading to a missed field goal. Driving into Georgia territory late in the third quarter, a pair of sacks ended Tennessee’s chance to keep the game within reach.

Good news: this isn’t a problem Josh Heupel’s teams had at UCF. It isn’t a function of the offense with quarterbacks holding the ball longer than usual, etc. Tennessee struggled in this department in 2020 as well, and hasn’t had a sack rate lower than 5% since the 2013 line that sent Ja’Wuan James and Zach Fulton to the NFL.

For all the good – and the great! – Tennessee’s offense did last year, there’s an opportunity for even more improvement here that could go a long way in keeping drives alive, producing even more points and even more separation. How much better will Tennessee’s pass protection be in 2022?

This is Monday. Next Monday is August. We’re close.

In these final few weeks before kickoff, we’re taking a look at the things Tennessee did very best…and very worst in 2021. There are places for celebration, as well as a moment to ask if we’ll see such greatness again this year. And there are places for obvious improvement, where even a little difference can go a long way.

Let’s start with a word about tempo. The Vols led college football in plays per minute and points per minute, two of many facts whose solidification was lost in the immediate aftermath of the Purdue game. Instead of getting to talk about historic records falling, we got to talk about referees, everyone’s favorite topic. Tennessee was also 127th nationally in defensive snaps allowed, and trailed only Michigan State among teams playing 13 games. So there are plenty of Tennessee’s raw numbers that require that caveat: more snaps = more numbers, etc.

Setting pace aside, the thing Tennessee did very best last season: Hendon Hooker threw just three interceptions on 303 passing attempts.

Only Hooker and Bo Nix had three or fewer interceptions on 300+ passing attempts in college football last year; Nix gets the slight edge and the new SEC record with three picks on 323 attempts. Drop it to 250+ attempts, and it’s still a list with only those two, Dequan Finn at Toledo, and Brendon Lewis at Colorado on it.

Hooker was able to take down several Tennessee passing records last season, in part due to what Josh Heupel’s offense sets up for its quarterback. We looked at some of these going into the Music City Bowl, where Hooker easily finished off the school record for yards per attempt. He stayed just north of Erik Ainge for the single-season completion percentage record.

But the most impressive number is those three interceptions. That’s less than one percent of his total passing attempts. And according to the 2021 media guide, the previous UT and SEC record was held by the guy now at #2 on this list:

Tennessee QB Interception Percentage, 1992-2021

Year	QB	ATT	INT	PCT
2021	Hooker	303	3	0.99%
1995	Manning	380	4	1.05%
2018	Guarantano	246	3	1.22%
2015	Dobbs	344	5	1.45%
1992	Shuler	224	4	1.79%
2007	Ainge	519	10	1.93%
2003	C. Clausen	412	9	2.18%
1998	Martin	267	6	2.25%
2002	C. Clausen	310	7	2.26%
1997	Manning	477	11	2.31%
2020	Guarantano	166	4	2.41%
2011	Bray	247	6	2.43%
2001	C. Clausen	354	9	2.54%
2006	Ainge	348	9	2.59%
2012	Bray	451	12	2.66%
1993	Shuler	285	8	2.81%
2005	R. Clausen	209	6	2.87%
1999	Martin	305	9	2.95%
2008	Crompton	167	5	2.99%
2000	C. Clausen	194	6	3.09%
2019	Guarantano	257	8	3.11%
1996	Manning	380	12	3.16%
2014	Worley	252	8	3.17%
2016	Dobbs	357	12	3.36%
2009	Crompton	384	13	3.39%
2013	Worley	196	8	4.08%
1994	Manning	144	6	4.17%
2017	Dormady	137	6	4.38%
2010	Bray	224	10	4.46%
2004	Ainge	198	9	4.55%

Anytime we’re breaking Peyton Manning records, we’re doing something right. And you’ll also notice the bottom of the list belongs to true freshmen, including Manning as well. More recently, you’ll note one of the big off-season conversations from 2015 to 2016: will they let Dobbs throw it downfield more? The 2015 Vols were more content to bludgeon, and with Dobbs + Hurd + Kamara it wasn’t a bad plan. But Tennessee and Mike DeBord did take more chances the following year, in part because they had to with defensive difficulties. The Vols turned that into more big plays, but also seven more interceptions.

With Heupel’s offense, there isn’t much concern about getting even more aggressive. That’s part of what makes Hooker’s year so impressive. And finding that explosiveness while minimizing risk is an incredible combo, one Heupel was able to duplicate at UCF:

• 2018: McKenzie Milton 2.08% (6 INTs on 289 attempts)
• 2019: Dillon Gabriel 1.76% (7 INTs on 398 attempts)
• 2020: Dillon Gabriel 0.97% (4 INTs on 413 attempts)

That last number, you’ll note, is even a smidge better than Hooker’s.

Is #5 going to throw more than three interceptions this year? I mean, the starting point is so low it’s hard to take the under. But if the Vols can continue to operate with this level of precision + explosiveness in the passing game? That’s a clear path to more success, and perhaps to individual honor for Hooker.

And it’s even more impressive considering the thing Tennessee was very worst at, which we’ll look at next.

Here’s something that caught my eye from media days this week:

Cole Cubelic of SEC Network told me in interview that Tennessee might be third best team in SEC. We'll play that interview later today in SportsTalk. Also Roman Harper of SEC Network said UT might be SEC's third best team and maybe Alabama's toughest opponent.

— Jimmy Hyams (@JimmyHyams) July 19, 2022

One thing about this conversation: the team that should be the consensus “third best” team in the league, Texas A&M, isn’t on our schedule. So to some degree, it doesn’t matter whether you think the Vols or Aggies is better on December 1, unless we’re both in Atlanta.

But this conversation could come into play when it’s time to consider postseason destinations.

Bowls are always a fickle way to judge the success of one’s season; there’s so little control Tennessee or anyone else has if you find yourself in the SEC’s group of six bowls (“Outback”, Gator, Music City, Liberty, Texas, and Las Vegas this year, alternating seasons with the Belk/Mayo). The Vols haven’t made it north of this tier since playing in the Cotton Bowl in 2004; with that game now in the CFP rotation, the Citrus Bowl in 2001 is really the most recent comparison.

Two of the most straightforward ways to identify success – bowl destination and division championship – could both look quite different in a couple years. But for now, getting to the “Outback” (one appearance in the last 15 years) or the Citrus (none in the last 21 years) would be a clear indicator of a successful season for Tennessee.

And if the Vols are really the third best team in the SEC? They could go even higher than that.

How good do you have to be to make the Sugar Bowl?

We’re eight years in with the College Football Playoff. Every three years, the Sugar Bowl hosts a national semifinal. The other two years, including this fall, New Orleans gets the highest-ranked SEC team that isn’t in the semifinals. In 2017 and 2021, the league got two teams into the semifinals; I’m sure many preseason projections for this fall will put Alabama and Georgia there again.

So, historically speaking, who makes the Sugar Bowl as the SEC’s designated team?

• 2015: Ole Miss (9-3, #12 CFP poll)
• 2016: Auburn (8-4, #17 CFP poll)
• 2018: Georgia (11-2, #6 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
• 2019: Georgia (11-2, #5 CFP poll, lost in Atlanta)
• 2021: Ole Miss (10-2, #8 CFP poll)

We know that 2016 story well, when the Vols were a win at Vanderbilt away from making it themselves at what would’ve been 9-3. As we’ll see, that season itself was an outlier, with everyone who wasn’t Alabama finishing with at least four losses. But in general, if you get to 9-3 or better? You’re going to come in for a nice landing:

What happens to SEC teams who finish at least 9-3?

• 2021: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Georgia (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (10-2, Sugar), Kentucky (9-3, Citrus)
• 2020: Alabama (11-0, CFP), Georgia (7-2, Peach), Florida (8-3, Cotton), Texas A&M (8-1, Orange)
• 2019: LSU (13-0, CFP), Georgia (11-2, Sugar), Florida (10-2, Orange), Alabama (10-2, Citrus), Auburn (9-3, Outback)
• 2018: Alabama (12-0, CFP), LSU (9-3, Fiesta), Georgia (11-2, Sugar), Florida (9-3, Peach), Kentucky (9-3, Citrus)
• 2017: Alabama (11-1, CFP), Georgia (12-1, CFP), Auburn (10-3, Peach), LSU (9-3, Citrus)
• 2016: Alabama (13-0, CFP)
• 2015: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Ole Miss (9-3, Sugar), Florida (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (10-3, Gator), LSU (9-3, Texas)
• 2014: Alabama (12-1, CFP), Mississippi State (10-2, Orange), Ole Miss (9-3, Peach), Missouri (10-3, Citrus), Georgia (9-3, Belk)

In eight years of the playoffs, 33 SEC teams have had three or fewer losses on selection Sunday. Of that group, only four made something “less” than the Citrus Bowl. And only 2019 Auburn went down that path in the last six years.

So from a Tennessee perspective, not only would a 9-3 regular season give you the best record in Knoxville in the last 15 years, it should send you to a bowl destination of Citrus or better. And depending on what happens at the tippy-top of the league, it could send you somewhere even better.

If we again see Alabama and Georgia both in the playoff, could a 9-3 Tennessee have the league’s next-best resume? It’s on this level that games like Texas A&M/Miami, Arkansas/Cincinnati, and without question Tennessee/Pitt come into play.

So on the surface, it may seem like it doesn’t matter if you think Tennessee is better than Texas A&M (or Arkansas!). The Vols are good enough to first pursue the idea of success through the lens of giving themselves a chance to compete for the SEC East title.

But beneath all of that, keep your eyes on the bowl projections. A 9-3 finish and Orlando for the Vols? One or both of those would automatically give you the best season in 15+ years.

Next week, somebody is going to be picked second in the SEC East. Maybe it’ll be the Vols, maybe not. But I would anticipate Tennessee being close enough to warrant conversation.

That’s not really a goal, of course. You don’t get a silver medal. If the Vols have a successful 2022 season, that won’t be how we describe it. But the journey to such a finish can provide a clear opportunity for the kind of season we’re looking for.

Some ten years ago, we started ranking Tennessee’s most important games going into each season. Even then, in Derek Dooley’s final season, you can see the argument: it’s not which wins would be worth most, in which case Alabama and Georgia vault to the top of the list. It’s more about that team’s particular path to success: back then, we had NC State at number two, with Dooley feeling heat heading into year three and the Vols in desperate need of a good start.

The game at number one on that list has been the game at number one almost every year going back somewhere between 10-30 years:

Florida

It would be easier to think of when the Gators haven’t been viewed as Tennessee’s most important game going into the season. Once the Vols broke a 10-year Alabama streak in 1995, the Tennessee/Florida game vaulted to the top of our lists and our hearts. Since then, when has it not been the Gators? Maybe when Miami was the defending national champion and Ron Zook moved to Florida in 2002. Maybe when Mark Richt firmly established Georgia as a power after beating the Vols four years in a row for 2004-05. And there have been a few times when the Gators were perceived as simply too good for the Vols to realistically catch in the midst of coaching change; maybe only Jeremy Pruitt’s 2018 squad, with Dan Mullen also in year one, could really look at Florida as their biggest game in year one.

Last summer, we would’ve viewed a win like South Carolina or Kentucky as “more important” on the front end. But Josh Heupel’s team did more than a good enough job to get the Gators back at the top of our list in year two, even before Mullen’s season spiraled and Florida turned their own staff over.

Tennessee, as you know, has one win over Florida since 2004, and even that one has six years and two coaching staffs of mileage on it. Beating the Gators at any point would be a success for Tennessee right now. It would create one of the strongest memories any Vol coach has secured in the post-Fulmer era, and Heupel would have a chance to do it early in year two. It doesn’t always go that way, even when you feel like it’s gonna. But it certainly can this year, in a game the Vols might even be favored in for the first time since ducks pulled trucks.

It always starts here. It’s where it can go next that helps define importance to me:

LSU & Kentucky

You can go in any order here. LSU is the national power, a meaningful win for the Vols in any year. Stumble against Florida and Pittsburgh, it’s your chance to right the ship. Beat one or both of those teams, and it’s a chance to stay in the national conversation. The LSU game will function to some degree like the Texas A&M game in 2016: it can’t do it for you by itself, but it can set the course for what comes next.

Kentucky fans are surely telling themselves they should have three consecutive wins over us. The program has elevated itself to a place where they might earn those second place votes. And the seeds of rivalry have always been there via basketball season. The Vols catch LSU coming off a bye; Kentucky catches us in the same fashion.

For Tennessee fans, it will seem easier to overlook the Cats because of what comes next. But it’s this sequence of games that gives the next one a chance to matter most.

Georgia

If you think we’re ready for this kind of fun, then sure, Georgia’s the most important game on the schedule because it’s the one that gives you the best chance to win the East.

I think that’s an unfair conversation headed into year two against the defending national champions. But I wouldn’t shy away from the opportunity. And that’s why I’d look at an absolute success like this: beat Florida, LSU, and Kentucky, and you’ll go to Athens on November 5 with a chance to move into first place in the SEC East. No matter what you did against Alabama. (Or Pittsburgh.)

It’s all hypothetical about whether Tennessee can beat Georgia at this point. But if you want that opportunity to really count, you get there by way of Florida, LSU, and Kentucky.

The composite recruiting rankings at 247 go back to 2000. That February, the Vols signed five five-stars – pretty good! – including Michael Munoz, Jason Respert, and Casey Clausen. The next two years, Tennessee signed three five-stars each February, giving the program 11 five-stars from 2000-2002.

From 2003-2023, the program has 14 five-stars. And the Vols have never signed more than two in the same class since ’02.

Even getting two became a rare feat. After that run in the early 2000s, each Vol coach (more or less) had just one signing class that included a pair of five stars:

• Phillip Fulmer did it in 2007 with Eric Berry and Ben Martin
• Some combination of Lane Kiffin and Derek Dooley did it in February 2010 with Da’Rick Rogers and Ja’Wuan James
• Butch Jones did it in 2015 with Kahlil McKenzie and Kyle Phillips
• Jeremy Pruitt did it in 2019 with Darnell Wright & Wanya Morris

And now, Josh Heupel happily joins the list with Nico Iamaleava and Chandavian Bradley.

To some degree, it speaks to the power of Tennessee’s program that each coaching staff made this happen, despite the ongoing struggles on the field. It’s rare for a program to recruit at a Top 10 level without winning 10+ games first.

One thing that’s increasingly been an issue for Tennessee, and maybe for everyone via the transfer portal: getting your highest-rated recruits to actually become your highest-rated players over multiple years.

Nico and Bradley look like they’ll be the top two players in this year’s class. Addison Nichols and Tyre West will see action for the first time this fall as the highest-rated players in the Class of 2022. Before them, the players at the top of Tennessee’s board haven’t always turned into sure things, even beyond the most recent coaching turnover:

• 2021: Aaron Willis (portal), Kaemen Marley (portal)
• 2020: Keyshawn Lawrence (portal), Omari Thomas
• 2019: Darnell Wright, Wanya Morris (portal)
• 2018: J.J. Peterson (portal), Alontae Taylor
• 2017: Trey Smith, Ty Chandler (portal)

Chandler and Morris started for the Vols over multiple seasons before transferring out. Jarrett Guarantano would be on this list from 2016, joining other names like Marquez North and Da’Rick Rogers who did some really good things in a Tennessee uniform, but whose careers ultimately led elsewhere.

And, as we know, coaching changes can lead to wipeouts of entire classes of elite prospects. Pruitt’s highest-rated class in 2019 thankfully retains Darnell Wright, who has a chance to be one of Tennessee’s best players this fall. But its next three highest-rated players were Wanya Morris, Henry To’oTo’o, and Quavaris Crouch. The 2020 group thankfully retains Omari Thomas, who will have a chance to make a big impact on the defensive line this fall. But three of its four highest-rated players were Keyshawn Lawrence, Harrison Bailey, and Malachi Wideman.

And the calendar worked hard against the 2021 group, with early signees inking with Jeremy Pruitt in December 2020 before he was let go in January of 2021. Aaron Willis, Kaemen Marley, Kaidon Salter, and Julian Nixon have all left the program.

So that’s all four of Tennessee’s highest-rated signees in 2021, three of four in 2020, and three of four in 2019 who left the program.

Don’t underestimate the job this current staff is doing.

The transfer portal shows no signs of disappearing, and the portal can giveth too: Hendon Hooker is one of many examples of how the Vols used the portal to speed up a rebuild that could have been otherwise crippling.

In the meantime, Heupel is recruiting at the peak of what any of his post-Fulmer predecessors were able to accomplish with five-stars. Despite x number of years of struggle, Tennessee can clearly still attract and earn commitments from the best in college football. If Heupel can simply provide stability, more of those players might stick around longer than we’ve seen with the last group. And there is plenty of excitement that this staff will do far more than just be stable.

Go Vols.

Earlier this week, we revisited our list from last summer of Tennessee’s best and worst surprises. Using data from Phil Steele’s all access online, we tracked the Vols against the spread going all the way back to 1985, looking for the games they most over-and-under-performed. On Tuesday, we did the ten worst. Today: the fun part.

Tennessee’s 10 Best Performances Against the Spread, 1985-Present

9a. 1993 South Carolina: favored by 20, won 55-3

9b. 1993 at Kentucky: favored by 16, won 48-0

Heath Shuler’s Vols were not to be trifled with. In the Steve Tanneyhill revenge game, Charlie Garner had a 60-yard touchdown run on the second play of the game, and the Vols never looked back. The ’93 Kentucky squad made the Peach Bowl, the Cats’ first postseason appearance in nine years. Tennessee destroyed them 48-0. Again, this team is the program’s high-water mark in SP+ in the last five decades for a reason.

8. 1989 at UCLA: 15-point underdogs, won 24-6

The genesis of Tennessee’s “decade” of dominance from 1989-2001. In week two, the Bruins were ranked sixth and hosted the Vols on a late night in Pasadena. UCLA went for it on 4th-and-1 at the UT 37 on their opening drive, and the defense held. From there, the Vols introduced the world to freshman tailback Chuck Webb: 134 yards and two scores, plus 78 more from Reggie Cobb. The program was off and running, en route to back-to-back SEC titles in 1989-90, and more to come. Read more from the LA Times.

6a. 1985 vs Miami (Sugar Bowl): 7-point underdogs, won 35-7

One of the most famous nights in the history of Tennessee football. I was four years old, so I carry no memories from the game itself, but spent much of the next four years being shown the highlights on that old SugarVols VHS tape, before the ’89 team made its own memories.

6b. 2004 vs Texas A&M (Cotton Bowl): 4-point underdogs, won 38-7

Tennessee was the higher-ranked team, but the Vols were down to third-string quarterback Rick Clausen. No matter: he went 18-of-27 for 222 yards with three touchdowns, and the Vol defense ambushed the Aggies in forcing five turnovers. This capped a 10-3 season, still the last time the Vols lost fewer than four games in a year.

5. 2010 Ole Miss: favored by 2.5, won 52-14

Tyler Bray’s coming out party in Knoxville. When we first looked at this list last summer, we noted this game as the high-water mark against the spread in the post-Fulmer era, and talked about the power of a team finding its quarterback. There are no guarantees, of course: Bray’s revelation at the end of his freshman year led to an injury as a sophomore and a bunch of high-scoring losses as a junior. But that late span created real momentum for the program going forward, something Hendon Hooker knows a thing or two about…

3a. 1985 at Kentucky: favored by 4, won 42-0

As good as the Sugar Bowl romp over #2 Miami was, the ’85 Vols were even better relative to expectations in the Bluegrass that year. When Tony Robinson went down to injury and was replaced at quarterback by Daryl Dickey, the Vols took some time to restart the offense. They tied Georgia Tech 6-6 and only scored 17 points in a win at Memphis State. Kentucky came into this one playing for bowl eligibility, and beat the Vols in Knoxville the year before. Not this time: the 42-0 shutout moved the Vols into the Top 10.

3b. 1990 Florida: favored by 4, won 45-3

Here’s the high-water mark in Neyland Stadium. Up 7-3 at halftime, Dale Carter took the second half kickoff to the house, and engaged the floodgates. The Vols routed Steve Spurrier’s Gators in a Top 10 clash, making this the benchmark for blowouts in both rivalry and elite competition categories. This is the fourth appearance for a Johnny Majors team in this Top 10.

2. 2021 at Missouri: 2.5-point underdogs, won 62-24

Maybe the Missouri game isn’t your dominant image from last fall; the win over South Carolina was in Knoxville, and it felt like we were beating a better team in the moment. The win at Kentucky was a ranked dub in a close game. But historically speaking, this one is incredibly significant. Going back to at least 1985, we’ve only seen one game where the Vols over-performed expectations via Vegas better than this. And for a Tennessee program that just saw its worst performance relative to expectation the previous season? There was credibility earned here on a level that we hadn’t experienced from a year one coach, a delightful surprise that we might look back on as a tone-setter for something more. From last fall: Announce My Presence With Authority.

1. 1994 at Vanderbilt: favored by 12, won 65-0

The largest margin of victory via shutout in modern UT history. Total yards: Tennessee 655, Vanderbilt 212. The Commodores came into this one 5-5 and looking for bowl eligibility. Instead, they got this. Freshman Peyton Manning was hitting his stride, but this day was as much about the talent gap as anything. Overperforming the spread by 53 points, this is far and away Tennessee’s best performance relative to expectation at kickoff since at least 1985.

Last summer, we looked at some of Tennessee’s best and worst surprises in the post-Fulmer era. We used UT’s performance relative to expectations: how much did Tennessee over-or-under-perform against the spread?

In the negative department, four of Tennessee’s five worst performances against the spread post-Fulmer came from 2017-2020, and each of those happened in Knoxville. There’s a reason it felt the way it did walking out of the stadium.

So then, we wondered how much a good surprise might be worth to Josh Heupel in year one. And that’s exactly what we got: the Vols went to Missouri at +2.5 on October 2, and won 62-24. That 40.5-point over-performance was the best of the post-Fulmer era, topping Tyler Bray’s coming out party in Knoxville against Ole Miss in 2010 (a 52-14 win at -2.5). And it was indeed no fluke: the Vols over-performed the line by 14.5 points the very next week against South Carolina, and off we went.

I don’t know if the Missouri game is your dominant image from 2021. But historically, it might be the most significant outcome from last fall.

So looking forward to 2022, I celebrated two holidays this weekend: Independence Day, and Phil Steele’s arrival. If you love stats and history, I highly recommend his online access, which includes every team’s performance against the spread going back some 40 years. So I spent some time these past few days digging deeper than just the post-Fulmer era on these questions: what are Tennessee’s best and worst performances against the spread? And how high on those lists do the struggles of 2017-2020 and the unexpected delight of 2021 rank?

I went back as far as 1985, using that SEC Championship season as a benchmark for both my lifespan and our modern conversation. We’ll save the best for last, and look at Tennessee’s best performances against the spread later this week. Today, here’s a look at Tennessee’s worst performances against the spread. Can’t appreciate the good without the context!

Tennessee’s 10 Worst Performances Against the Spread, 1985-Present

10. 1993 vs Penn State (Citrus Bowl): favored by 10, lost 31-13

We’ll see more from Heath Shuler’s squad tomorrow, which was so dominant it confused Vegas more than once, then did so again in the finale. This team, still Tennessee’s all-time best in SP+, lost at Florida by seven and tied Alabama in Birmingham. They destroyed everyone else. And then in the bowl game, they took a 10-0 lead…before Penn State closed on a 31-3 run. Ki-Jana Carter ran for 108 of their 209 yards, and the Nittany Lions had their second bowl victory over Tennessee in three years.

9. 1999 Memphis: favored by 30, won 17-16

Beware the orange pants! With everyone expecting bloodshed following the events of the next game on our list, the defending national champion Vols were perhaps still thinking about the loss at Florida the previous week. Tennessee needed a last minute drive to get the win on a very nervous homecoming Saturday. This was my freshman year at UT, and I’m not sure I’ve ever spent more of a game thinking about how bad it would be to lose. But we didn’t!

8. 1996 at Memphis: favored by 26, lost 21-17

Kevin Cobb was down.

6a. 1988 Washington State: favored by 3, lost 52-24

An 0-4 start became 0-5, with Tennessee surrendering more than 600 yards of offense. A Host of Volunteers has a great podcast about the 1988 season, which started 0-6 but ended 5-0, setting the table for Tennessee’s golden era to begin in 1989.

6b. 2017 Georgia: 10-point underdogs, lost 41-0

Tennessee’s run on the national scene from 2015-16 came to a firm halt on this day, dominated by Kirby Smart’s year two Bulldogs in Knoxville.

4a. 1995 Vanderbilt: favored by 32, won 12-7

This line will make more sense when you see what happened in this match-up the previous year. In the 1995 regular season finale, the Vols were ranked fifth, but almost stumbled the week before in Lexington. Against Woody Widenhofer’s year one Commodores, the Vols struggled offensively, but got the job done in a 12-7 victory. (The next two years against Vanderbilt, with some guy named Manning at quarterback: 14-7, 17-10). The Vols struggled into the Citrus Bowl…then beat maybe the most talented team they’ve ever faced from Ohio State.

4b. 2007 at Florida: 7-point underdogs, lost 59-20

An odd game, but not for this rivalry. Florida led 28-13 and was driving for the putaway score in the third quarter, when true freshman Eric Berry picked sophomore Tim Tebow and raced back 96 yards for a score. The Vols got a stop, and got the ball back down 28-20 with five minutes to play in the third quarter. And then, disaster: an Arian Foster fumble was returned for a touchdown, followed by a 99-yard Florida drive, followed by, followed by, followed by. The Gators scored 31 unanswered in the final 20 minutes, giving the Vols their worst margin-of-victory loss of the Fulmer era. Tebow won the Heisman, but the Vols would rebound to win the SEC East.

3. 2019 Georgia State: favored by 24.5, lost 31-23

This game had a chance to play in some real positive history at UT, as the 2019 Vols eventually rebounded from this disaster to finish the year on a six game win streak. The fallout for the Jeremy Pruitt era in 2020 severed that potential chain, leaving this one as one of two notable examples for getting stunned at home by a mid-major, along with…

2. 2008 Wyoming: favored by 27, lost 13-7

The margin of upset is wider here by half a point. But given what was happening at the time, I do think the Georgia State loss hurt more; at this stage in 2008, Fulmer was out, and the team played like it.

1. 2020 Kentucky: favored by 6.5, lost 34-7

Going back through at least 1985, this is Tennessee’s worst performance relative to the spread. The pick sixes in the first half set the tone, and Kentucky’s offense was able to finish things off in the second. The Vols have been blown out by more, for sure, but have never performed so poorly relative to what we thought would happen at kick-off, at least via Vegas standards.

Which is why it’s so amazing to know what they did against Missouri in the opposite direction just one year later. More on that later this week.